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Ryan Lavarnway Announces Retirement

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Ryan Lavarnway will be chatting with MLBTR readers tomorrow at 10am Central. Click here to ask questions in advance or join in the chat when it’s in progress!

Veteran catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who spent parts of 10 seasons in the Majors and 15 seasons in pro ball overall, announced his retirement on Wednesday in a thoughtful and poignant piece at The Athletic. Fans of any team are encouraged to read through Lavarnway’s piece, which deftly details the trials and tribulations of a prototypical journeyman who overcame a self-admitted lack of athleticism in large part due to a “sixth tool” — being “really, really good at not quitting.”

Lavarnway, 35, was a sixth-round pick by the Red Sox in 2008 and was twice named the organization’s minor league offensive player of the year. He’s twice suited up for Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and played 25 games with the 2013 World Series champion Red Sox.

Lavarnway never cemented himself as a regular in the big leagues despite hitting his way into being a prospect of some note with the Sox. The well-traveled backstop writes that he wore 18 different uniforms over his career and was optioned, traded, claimed on waivers or released a combined 26 times throughout his career. Along the way, he appeared for the Red Sox, Pirates, Braves, Athletics, Marlins, Reds, Indians and Orioles.

While he never topped 46 big league games or 166 big league plate appearances in a season, Lavarnway saw a total of 165 MLB games and 486 trips to the plate, during which he batted .217/.272/.345 with nine homers. He wound up accruing more than three years of Major League service time throughout his many MLB stints. Lavarnway also spent parts of 11 seasons in Triple-A, where he was a combined .267/.360/.432 hitter with 79 more homers in 2580 plate appearances. Best wishes to Lavarnway in whatever next step he pursues.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves were the offseason’s least active free agent spender. With payroll mounting, they allowed a star hitter to depart for a second straight offseason. Atlanta instead landed arguably the top player of the winter trade market, promptly extending him to join a loaded internal group.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $1.4MM
Total spending: $1.4MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Jake Odorizzi exercised $12.5MM player option instead of $6.25MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Tyler Matzek to two-year, $3.1MM extension (deal also contains 2025 club option and potentially buys out one free agent year)
  • Signed C Sean Murphy to six-year, $73MM extension (deal also contains 2029 club option and potentially buys out four free agent years)

Notable Losses

The Braves had an otherworldly second half to secure their fifth consecutive NL East title. Unlike the year before, they weren’t able to catch fire during the postseason. After losing in the Division Series to the Phillies, Atlanta went into the offseason again facing the potential departure of a star position player.

As was the case with Freddie Freeman a year ago, there was some early belief the Braves wouldn’t part ways with Dansby Swanson. The former first overall pick is a Georgia native and had emerged as a clubhouse leader, to say nothing of his excellent durability and quality production on both sides of the ball. Yet reports even before the offseason began suggested Atlanta had floated around $100MM in extension talks — a number that might’ve been acceptable early in the year but looked very light by the start of the offseason.

Atlanta made Swanson a qualifying offer that he predictably rejected. There didn’t seem to be much further contact; Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported in early December that Atlanta and Swanson’s camp hadn’t had any real negotiations since the start of the offseason. Two weeks after that, Swanson was a Cub. His $177MM guarantee with Chicago shattered Atlanta’s reported offer from during the season. The Braves picked up a compensatory draft pick but go into 2023 with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years.

Swanson was one of four All-Star caliber shortstops available in free agency. Atlanta was never substantively linked to any of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts either, hinting at the payroll questions that surrounded the organization throughout the winter. No organization has been as successful as the Braves at signing early-career players to long-term extensions. Deals for the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II have locked in a core that should compete throughout the decade. Yet those contracts have run up the payroll, limiting the club’s flexibility to attack free agency.

Atlanta entered the winter with a projected franchise-record payroll. The Liberty Media ownership group floated the notion of running top five payrolls in the near future. That raised the expectations among some within the fanbase but always felt a bit misleading, as Atlanta’s existing commitments put them in the back half of the top ten in spending already. There simply didn’t seem to be much room for the front office to play the open market.

No other team spent less in free agency. Atlanta’s only major league free agent signees were corner outfielder Jordan Luplow and relievers Nick Anderson and Jackson Stephens (the latter two of whom signed split deals that pay less for time spent in the minors). All three players had been cut at the start of the offseason — Stephens by the Braves themselves — and none will open this year on the MLB roster. Luplow and Anderson have already been optioned to Triple-A, while Atlanta ran Stephens through waivers and sent him outright to Gwinnett.

Without much spending capacity, Braves’ brass turned to the trade market to bolster a win-now roster. Atlanta orchestrated arguably the biggest trade of the winter, a three-team blockbuster that registered as a major surprise. There was never much doubt the rebuilding A’s would trade Sean Murphy. However, few would’ve pegged Atlanta as the landing spot back in November. The Braves already had a quality catching group consisting of Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras and Manny Piña. There were plenty of other teams with a more dire catching need.

Murphy is a special player, though, one whom Atlanta pursued despite that positional depth. He’s among the sport’s best defensive catchers and has hit at an above-average level throughout his four-season career. Murphy has topped 15 home runs in each of the last two years despite playing his home games in one of the sport’s least favorable offensive environments. He draws walks, has power, and posted a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate last season. There aren’t many more valuable all-around catchers.

Even a team with as much depth as the Braves would upgrade from adding a player of that caliber. Shortly after the Winter Meetings, Atlanta pulled it off by looping in the Brewers in a three-team deal that would send young outfielder Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee to Oakland. Contreras, a quality hitter with some defensive concerns, was shipped off to Milwaukee as their catcher of the future. Piña headed back to the A’s as part of a salary offset. The Braves relinquished some upper level rotation depth, packaging Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok and High-A pitching prospect Royber Salinas to Oakland. Atlanta gave up a handful of well-regarded players but no one in that group looks like the kind of headliner the Braves will be devastated to lose, particularly since Murphy steps in as an immediate upgrade over the best player they relinquished.

A big part of Murphy’s appeal was his three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. While he was controllable at below-market rates through 2025, Atlanta committed to him as part of the core long before he ever donned a Braves uniform. Within weeks of the trade, Murphy and the Braves had agreed to a $73MM extension that buys out three free agent years and gives the club an affordable $15MM option for a fourth. It was another extension that has the potential to be a team-friendly pact and aligns well with the contention window for this core.

With Murphy in the fold, d’Arnaud gets pushed into the role of overqualified backup. Atlanta quickly made clear they wouldn’t look to trade him. They’ll instead deploy him frequently as the designated hitter and on rest days for Murphy. It served to indirectly upgrade a DH position that was one of the few position player weaknesses on the roster.

How to divvy up DH playing time dovetails with one of the other questionable spots: left field. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t performed well through the first two seasons of a four-year deal. He’s still due $37MM over the next couple seasons and remains on the roster. Atlanta looks set to give him another shot to reestablish himself offensively while splitting time between left field and DH.

That’s also true of Eddie Rosario. He followed up his 2021 World Series heroics with a disastrous ’22 campaign, hitting .212/.259/.328 in 80 games. The organization has attributed those struggles to an eye issue for which he underwent corrective vision surgery last April. There’s presumably some merit to that but Rosario has been one of the sport’s streakiest players throughout his eight-year MLB career. He’s not likely to be as bad as he was last season but he’s also not the established offensive force a team would be enthused to have in left field.

Rather than bring in a clear upgrade, Atlanta took a volume approach to left field. Luplow signed to add a right-handed matchup bat to the mix. The Braves took a flier on the toolsy Sam Hilliard, a former Rockie with big power but massive strikeout tallies. Atlanta also acquired defensive specialist Eli White from the Rangers and brought in veteran Kevin Pillar on a minor league deal. Adam Duvall and Robbie Grossman were allowed to depart in free agency. Hilliard and Pillar remain in MLB camp and could have the leg up on season-opening bench spots, with Hilliard out of minor league options and Pillar having the right to retest free agency if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

It’s a hodgepodge of options without a clear solution, one where the organization seems set to take a hot hand approach. Whoever’s in left will be joined by two of the sport’s top young outfielders in Harris and Acuña. It’s a similar story on the infield, where three stars are joined by one area of concern.

Olson and Albies will be back on the left side of the infield. Riley has third base secured. Atlanta maintained throughout the winter it’d be an open competition to replace Swanson. There seemed a general expectation that 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom would take that job after he flashed some offensive potential last season while Albies was injured. Grissom’s production tailed off after a scorching start and prospect evaluators aren’t convinced he’ll be able to handle the position defensively. Atlanta settled the Opening Day shortstop debate yesterday, optioning both Grissom and former first-round pick Braden Shewmake to Gwinnett.

The job now falls to Orlando Arcia, an experienced utility option whose career offensive track record is below-average. The 28-year-old hit at a decent .244/.316/.416 clip in part-time action last season, however. The Braves will go with stability over upside in the early going, turning to Arcia and likely tabbing non-roster invitee Ehire Adrianza as a utility option off the bench. There’s no question they’re in for a downgrade relative to Swanson, though that would’ve been true regardless of which player won the job. Arcia is an unexciting stopgap whom the club will count on as a low-end regular while giving Grissom and Shewmake more developmental run. The Braves could have turned to a veteran free agent like Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias for little cost but apparently don’t consider either to be a better player than Arcia.

While a veteran won the shortstop job out of camp, Atlanta’s fifth starter role looks as if it’ll fall to a rookie. The Braves have an elite top four with Max Fried, Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Atlanta cleared a path to the fifth spot for a young pitcher at the start of the offseason, paying down $10MM of Jake Odorizzi’s $12.5MM contract to offload him to Texas. That deal brought back former first-round pick Kolby Allard, who has gotten hit hard at the MLB level and will start the year on the injured list because of an oblique issue.

With Odorizzi out of the picture, the fifth starter job seemed to fall to one of Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder or Michael Soroka. Soroka fell out of the Opening Day mix by suffering a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Anderson and Elder got leapfrogged on the depth chart by prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, both of whom have excelled in camp. Anderson and Elder were optioned out, leaving Dodd and Shuster to battle for the fifth spot. Neither has yet played in MLB; they’re both coming off strong seasons in the upper minors and have quality secondary stuff and command to compensate for mediocre velocity.

As with any team, the Braves are sure to cycle through a number of pitchers at the back of the rotation as injuries and performance necessitate. The fifth spot shouldn’t be a huge concern thanks to the elite front four and a bullpen that again looks like one of the game’s best. They let closer Kenley Jansen walk after one very good season in Atlanta but have ample possibilities to fill the high-leverage innings.

The Braves acquired Raisel Iglesias at last summer’s deadline as a ready-made closing replacement for Jansen. A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee are excellent setup options from the left side. Atlanta brought in veteran specialist Lucas Luetge in a trade after he was designated for assignment by the Yankees to add a third quality left-hander. Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates are right-handed setup options. The Braves landed one of the better relievers available in trade this offseason, sending third base/corner outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy to Detroit for the final arbitration season of hard-throwing righty Joe Jiménez.

That’s seven spots accounted for if everyone’s healthy. Anderson and Stephens could get looks in a depth capacity at some point. Old friend Jesse Chavez is back in camp as a non-roster invitee and might get the first crack at a long relief role. Atlanta agreed to a two-year deal with Tyler Matzek to cement him as a part of the 2024 relief corps, though he won’t be available this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

Once the offseason roster work was complete, the Braves turned their attention to a couple administrative concerns. Atlanta signed manager Brian Snitker to an extension that runs through 2025, tacking on two guaranteed seasons to his existing deal. That came on the heels of a notable front office departure, with vice president of scouting Dana Brown departing in January to take over baseball operations with the Astros.

There were a few high-level changes this winter but much of the Braves’ offseason is built around continuity. The Braves struck for one of the biggest trades and added a couple relievers in smaller deals. They did virtually nothing in free agency while watching Swanson and Jansen sign elsewhere. While it may not have been the most exciting winter for the fanbase, the Braves will head into the season with a legitimate goal of claiming a sixth straight NL East title. The organization has committed to this core and the group will try to again hold off the ascendant Mets and Phillies in arguably the game’s most competitive division.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Braves on March 22. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Atlanta offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.

Three More

Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.

Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.

Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.

Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake

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The Braves will option infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to Triple-A, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Both had been in line for the Opening Day shortstop job in Atlanta, but it seems that will now go to Orlando Arcia. David O’Brien of The Athletic relays that Arcia will get the starting gig with Ehire Adrianza as the utility infielder. Adrianza is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Braves subsequently announced the moves as part of a larger batch of roster cuts, including outfielders Jordan Luplow, Eli White and right-hander Nick Anderson.

The Braves went into this offseason with a shortstop vacancy for the first time in years, as Dansby Swanson has held down that job since late 2016. Swanson reached free agency this offseason and was considered one of the “Big Four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Despite that robust class of shortstops, Atlanta seemingly had little interest in either re-signing Swanson or going after anyone else. Eventually, the offseason came and went with the club’s big move being the trade for catcher Sean Murphy, who was later extended.

It seemed the club was satisfied with its internal shortstop options, with Grissom and Arcia the favorites for the role. Grissom had made his debut last year when he was just 21 years old, largely filling in at second base for the injured Ozzie Albies. He hit well in his first 156 plate appearances, producing a batting line of .291/.353/.440 for a wRC+ of 121. However, that may have been buoyed by a red hot start, as he hit .347/.398/.558 through September 7 but just .174/.264/.196 after.

Nonetheless, it was an encouraging start for such a young player and the club seemed to be a big believer in his abilities. Though he largely played second in his MLB debut, he was a shortstop in the minors. But that didn’t mean moving back to the other side of the bag was an obvious choice, as prospect evaluators had long raised questions about his ability to stick at short. It seems the club decided it was worth pursuing regardless of those concerns, as they tasked coach Ron Washington with working on Grissom’s shortstop defense this offseason. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos discussed the situation in January, after Swanson had signed with the Cubs.

“I can see how the scouting community might have questions about Vaughn. I had questions about Vaughn when I first saw him,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “And I’ve been wrong plenty of times. The difference is we have a guy in Ron Washington who’s unbelievable with this stuff. He wouldn’t just say something to say it. … And, look, we don’t know how Vaughn’s going to hit. He’s got to earn the job. Orlando Arcia can do it, too. But Wash really believes in Vaughn. We believe in Vaughn, too, but we’re going to go with who we think the expert in that area is, and I don’t know anybody better in the game than Ron.”

For most of the winter, it seemed it would be a two-horse race for the job between Grissom and Arcia, but there was a late charge from Shewmake. It was reported just yesterday that Shewmake’s hot spring was making things interesting. His prospect profile was essentially the inverse of Grissom’s, as his glovework is graded much stronger than his bat. But he hit .323/.382/.452 in spring action and seemed to give himself some momentum to take the job.

However, it now seems that neither of the youngsters will get the job, at least here at the end of spring. With Grissom and Shewmake both getting optioned today, it seems they’ve decided to go with the veteran in Arcia. Though he is more established, with 642 games of major league experience, there’s still risk with the 28-year-old. He’s coming off a fairly solid season as the club’s utility infielder, hitting .244/.316/.416 for a wRC+ of 104. However, the rest of his work at the plate is less impressive, as he had hit .242/.293/.363 coming into the year for a wRC+ of 70. He also hasn’t had a full-time shortstop gig since 2019, when defensive metrics gave him poor reviews and he was pushed into a utility role over the past three years.

This is merely a temporary move and the club could quickly call up Grissom or Shewmake early on in the season. However, it’s still a surprising result given the club’s recent history. They’ve shown a strong willingness to be aggressive with their young players, with both Grissom and Michael Harris II skipping Triple-A last year, going straight from Double-A to the bigs. The club then avoided free agents all winter, seeming to have little interest in either the marquee players or even a modest deal for someone like Elvis Andrus. It seems they’ve decided Grissom and Shewmake need more time and are now left with Arcia as their top option at short, at least for the time being.

The move could have service time implications for the younger players, as Shewmake’s clock has yet to start ticking and Grissom has a tally of 57 days. Whether either of them can reach the one-year mark this season will depend upon how long they eventually spend in the minors. It’s possible to earn a full year of service time even while spending time in the minors if a youngster finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year balloting, but they also have to appear at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline. Neither Grissom or Shewmake are on any of those three lists at the moment.

With Arcia securing the starting gig, Adrianza will apparently need to be added to the roster to take the backup infield job. He hit just .175/.264/.206 last year but is capable of playing any position other than catcher.

Turning to the other moves, Luplow and White were both in contention for a job backing up the starting outfield trio of Ronald Acuña Jr., Eddie Rosario and Harris. They seem to have been bumped out of that contest, at least for Opening Day. That perhaps will allow Sam Hilliard and Kevin Pillar to secure jobs on the bench. Nick Anderson was in the running for a bullpen job but will start the season in the minors.

Atlanta will need to make some roster moves in the wake of all this, but they may have already gotten a head start on that. Neither of Adrianza or Pillar are on the roster and it looks like the fifth starter job will go to one of Dylan Dodd or Jared Shuster, with neither of them being on the roster either. However, they recently opened a couple of spots when they lost Dennis Santana on waivers to the Twins and outrighted Jackson Stephens. They can also open a couple more by transferring Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day IL, with both pitchers likely out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Braves Outright Jackson Stephens

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The Braves announced that right-hander Jackson Stephens was outrighted to Triple-A.  The move was necessary to remove Stephens from the 40-man roster since he is out of minor league options, but the righty will remain in Atlanta’s organization.

Stephens first joined the Braves on a minor league deal last winter, and he ended up seeing quite a bit of Major League work in tossing 53 1/3 innings out of the bullpen (including three innings as the designated starter of a bullpen game at the end of the regular season).  Stephens posted a 3.69 ERA and did an excellent job of inducing soft contact, even if his strikeout and walk rates were both below the league average.

It was a respectable showing for Stephens’ first MLB action since 2018 as a member of the Reds, and the performance earned Stephen a new contract with the Braves back in December.  Since that deal was a split contract that wasn’t fully guaranteed, however, Stephens will only earn his $740K salary if he appears on Atlanta’s active roster at any point during the season.

Stephens didn’t acquit himself well in Spring Training, with a 33.75 ERA to show for 1 1/3 frames over two appearances of Grapefruit League work.  (The Orioles tagged Stephens for five runs in one-third of an inning on March 13.)  The outright assignment puts Stephens out of the running for a job in the Braves’ Opening Day bullpen, and the club also has another 40-man roster spot to work with in contemplating other moves.  Most immediately, the Braves might have that space earmarked for one of Dylan Dodd or Jared Shuster, who are competing to be the team’s fifth starter.

NL East Notes: Braves, Nimmo, Painter

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The Braves have a handful of areas on the roster that have yet to be settled, even with Opening Day only a little over a week away. The fifth starter competition has been upended since the beginning of spring, as Michael Soroka has once again struggled with injuries while early favorites Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder fell out of favor thanks to excellent springs from prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd. The final spot in the bullpen and the fourth outfielder position are other areas with uncertainty, but perhaps the most interesting camp battle at this point in the Spring is one few expected headed into the year.

As noted by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the shortstop position is still up for grabs, though most considered youngster Vaughn Grissom all but locked into the role as camp began last month. Since then, though, prospect Braden Shewmake has paired already-excellent defense with a torrid spring at the plate as he’s slashed .333/.400/.482 in 12 grapefruit league games. While it seems that the most likely conclusion to this remains Grissom as the starting shortstop, backed up by Orlando Arcia, Shewmake has made a case for himself this spring, and it’s worth noting that his left-handed bat could serve as a better complement to the right-handed Arcia than Grissom, who also bats righty. Toscano notes that it seems unlikely the Braves would roster both players to open the season, but it’s reasonable to expect that even if Shewmake fails to take the starting shortstop gig for himself to open the season, an opportunity to make his big league debut will open up at some point this season.

More from around the NL East…

  • Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo tells reporters, including Joel Sherman of the New York Post, that he was “relieved” following his diagnosis with a sprained knee and ankle that there was no structural damage in either area. Nimmo believes he will still be ready for Opening Day next week, which is surely a relief for Mets fans who recently lost fellow high-dollar returning free agent signing Edwin Diaz for the season to knee surgery. Should Nimmo miss time, it seems likely that would open up playing time for the likes of Tommy Pham and Tim Locastro.
  • Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that he still expects top prospect Andrew Painter to make his big league debut at some point this season. Painter was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this spring which took him out of the fifth starter competition in Philadelphia, but the young right-hander has not been recommended for Tommy John surgery, instead attempting to rehab the injury after a four week shutdown. Should the rehab route prove successful, it’s no surprise that Painter would be in the mix to make his debut later this season, as he proved himself to be clearly MLB-ready with a dominant spring prior to the sprain.

MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.

With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.

Jared Shuster

The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.

Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Dylan Dodd

Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.

Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.

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The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.

It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?

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Braves Option Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder

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The Braves announced today that right-handers Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder have been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. The club now has 50 players in camp.

The club is going into the season with four of its five rotation spots spoken for, with Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton firmly cemented. The only question was who would get the fifth spot. Anderson and Elder seemed like the frontrunners for such a job since they have some major league experience and are currently holding down spots on the 40-man roster. With players like Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard dealing with injuries, that seemed to only work in their favor. However, it seems that strong spring performances from Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd may have changed the calculus.

Anderson, 25 in May, seemed like a key member of the rotation at this time a year ago. Over 2020 and 2021, he tossed 160 2/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 49.9% ground ball rate. Based on the fact that he was the third overall pick in 2016 and a highly-touted prospect, there was every reason to suspect he would just continue on that kind of trajectory for years to come. Unfortunately, he took a big step back last season, posting an ERA of 5.00 with all of his rate stats going in the wrong direction. He got sent down to the minors and was later recalled but finished the year on the injured list. Though his stock was down after that rough season, many still expected the club to give him another shot here in 2023. The results haven’t been especially strong here in spring so far, as he’s registered a 6.14 ERA in 7 1/3 innings.

In the case of Elder, 24 in May, he has less major league experience, just 54 innings last year. But he posted a solid 3.17 ERA in that time, continuing his groundball-heavy approach from the minors. 49.3% of balls in play allowed in the majors were on the ground, and he had slightly better rates on the farm. But like Anderson, he’s had a rough spring, posting a 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings.

Shuster, 24, was the club’s first round pick in the 2020 draft and has been pushing his way up the minor league ladder since then. He tossed 90 2/3 innings in Double-A last year with a 2.78 ERA, but that jumped to a 4.25 ERA in 48 2/3 innings at Triple-A. He also saw his strikeout rate drop from 30% at Double-A to 19.4% at Triple-A. Coming into 2023, he was still considered one of the club’s top prospects, though it didn’t seem as though he was kicking the door down. But in 8 2/3 spring innings so far, he has a tiny ERA of 1.04, striking out nine batters while issuing just a single walk and allowing just a pair of hits.

Dodd, 25 in June, was selected in the third round of the 2021 draft and jumped three levels last year. Going from Class-A Advanced to Double-A and Triple-A, he tossed 142 innings on the year with a 3.36 ERA. He struck out 26% of batters faced and walked just 5.3%. He’s also had a strong showing here in camp, tossing 8 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 11 against no walks and five hits.

Clubs will occasionally start a season with a four-man rotation, as the early parts of the schedule will sometimes have extra off-days that negate the need for a fifth. That doesn’t seem to be the case for Atlanta, as they have just two days off in the month of April, playing in 12 straight days to start the month and then a 17-day stretch without a day off that covers the end of the month and the start of May. They will certainly need someone to take the ball alongside their front four in that time.

Neither Shuster nor Dodd are currently on the 40-man roster. If one of them is eventually called upon to join the Opening Day rotation, the club will need to make a move to get them a spot. That should be fairly easy, however, as both Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek are expected to miss most or all of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last year. They will be moved to the 60-day injured list at some point and won’t count against the club’s roster number. There’s still a couple of weeks until the opener and the club could always change its plans, but it seems that signs are pointing to a surprise ending to the club’s rotation battle.

Diamond Sports Planning To File For Bankruptcy; MLB Planning To Stream Games For Free Temporarily

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Diamond Sports Group, the corporation that owns 14 Bally Sports regional sports networks, is expected to file for bankruptcy March 17, according to a report from Josh Kosman of The New York Post. The timeline will be awkward for Major League Baseball since the 2023 season opens on March 30, but the league plans to step in and broadcast the games themselves.

It had been reported for some time that Diamond is in financial trouble and they forewent interest payments worth roughly $140MM to creditors last month. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said at that time that the league was monitoring the situation, hoping that Diamond would make its payments but also drawing up contingency plans. It was subsequently reported that the league had hired multiple former RSN executives for a newly-created Local Media department, seemingly to get in position to take over broadcasting duties where necessary.

The problem stems from continued cord-cutting as fewer customers are paying for cable bundles these days, opting instead to use streaming services. That leads to decreased revenue from ad sales and cable contracts, creating situations where RSNs are paying teams more for rights fees than they are able to make back from those revenue streams. Per Kosman’s report, there are at least four teams where Diamond plans to reject the contracts via the bankruptcy proceedings. The teams in question are the Reds, Diamondbacks, Guardians and Padres, with the San Diego deal currently $20MM in the red on an annual basis.

The report goes on to state that MLB’s plan is to take over the local TV broadcasts of those teams, as well as streaming them for free in those local markets as they negotiate lower deals with cable companies. It’s not yet clear if fans in blacked-out markets would be able to access those streams in the short-term. If deals are reached, the league plans to offer over-the-top service for around $15 per month. As Kosman notes, that’s lower than some other streaming deals, with the Red Sox charging $29.99 per month. The league also already tried to acquire the rights to all 14 teams currently controlled by Diamond but were turned down. Those clubs are the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins.

A similar situation has arisen with Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns AT&T SportsNet and is a minority owner of Root Sports. It was reported last month that Warner was planning to get out of the RSN business, which would have implications for the Rockies, Astros and Pirates, though not the Mariners. Warner only owns 40% of Root Sports Seattle with the Mariners owning the other 60%. Kosman’s report indicates the league plans to take over those broadcasts eventually as well, though not by Opening Day.

This is a fluid situation and many of the details are still being worked out, but it’s possible there is a sea change approaching in how Major League Baseball delivers its broadcasts to its fans. Most out-of-market games are available to paying subscribers via MLB TV, though these RSN deals have always taken precedent, leading to blackouts that prevent fans from watching their local club on the platform. Many fans have been critical of the way these blackouts are applied, with some subscribers saying that their home is covered by various overlapping blackout areas. The people of Iowa, for instance, have often complained that they can’t watch games featuring the Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Royals or Brewers. That’s an extreme example but highlights the sorts of issues with the current system. Manfred has expressed a desire to move to a new system that would allow customers to purchase broadcasts regardless of where they are, though it’s unclear how long it would take to get such a model in place.

Whenever that new system is in place, it will also have implications for the finances for teams. These RSN deals have long been a significant source of club revenue that seems to now be drying up. Streaming will present new revenues sources, of course, and already has. The league has previously agreed to lucrative deals with streaming platforms like Apple and NBC and may strike other deals in the future.

For now, it seems the immediate concern is making sure that the broadcasts for the 2023 season are maintained. Kosman reports that the league plans to retain current local announcers for any broadcasts that it takes over and it doesn’t seem as though there are any current concerns of games being missed. Assuming the league is successful in all of these plans, it’s possible that fans won’t notice much difference in their baseball consumption here this year, but the field may be wide open for changes down the line.

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