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MLBTR Poll: Best $200MM-Plus Contract

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When it comes to the money handed out, this has been one of the most active weeks in the history of Major League Baseball. At the Winter Meetings, we saw two right-handers – Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) – as well as third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245MM) secure contracts worth a combined $814MM. All three are clients of super-agent Scott Boras, which makes this a glorious week for him. But which of these deals will work out the best?

Let’s start at the top with Cole, now the highest-paid pitcher the game has ever seen. He’s emigrating from the Astros to the rival Yankees, who finally reeled in their so-called white whale. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees had previously chased Cole on multiple occasions, only to come up short. Of course, the 29-year-old Cole would’ve been much cheaper in the past, but he’s now the most expensive player on the Yankees’ roster.

Before Cole signed with the Yankees, Strasburg briefly had the honor of owning the richest all-time payday among MLB pitchers. Strasburg earned that after several stellar seasons in Washington, where he collected World Series MVP honors in 2019 after the Nats took down Cole and the Astros. Washington couldn’t let Strasburg go in the wake of his fall heroics, instead retaining him to keep forming a dominant trio with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Although Strasburg, 31, is much cheaper than Cole, it’s worth noting he’s a couple years older.

Rendon joined Strasburg as an indispensable part of the Nationals’ 2019 title-winning club, but the Nats weren’t ready to go all-out to keep both of them. As a result, Rendon exited after the Strasburg re-up to accept the Angels’ offer on Wednesday. The Angels hope the 29-year-old Rendon and the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, will help spark a playoff run in 2020 after years of irrelevance.

There’s no going back for the teams that signed Cole, Strasburg or Rendon. All three are locked into their incredibly large guarantees for the foreseeable future. In your opinion, though, which deal will work out the best?

(Poll link for app users)

Whose contract will work out the best?
Anthony Rendon 49.60% (10,085 votes)
Gerrit Cole 38.81% (7,891 votes)
Stephen Strasburg 11.58% (2,355 votes)
Total Votes: 20,331

Giants Acquire Zack Cozart

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Dec. 12: The Angels announced that they’ve acquired left-hander Garrett Williams from the Giants as a player to be named later, thus completing the Cozart swap. Sending him out as a player to be named later seems likely have been a measure of ensuring that Williams wasn’t selected in today’s Rule 5 Draft.

Williams, 25, was the Giants’ seventh-round pick back in 2016 and just completed his second season at the Double-A level, where he posted a 3.60 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 0.49 HR/9 and a 55.7 percent ground-ball rate in 110 innings (20 starts, nine relief outings). Williams, who was the Giants’ No. 29 prospect at MLB.com and landed outside the top 29 at FanGraphs, draws praise for a plus curveball but is obviously lacking in the command department. He’s averaged 4.9 BB/9 in his pro career to date, including a 5.7 mark in two seasons of Double-A ball.

Dec. 10: The Giants have acquired infielder Zack Cozart and shortstop prospect Will Wilson from the Angels for cash considerations or a player to be named later, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports. San Francisco will pay all of Cozart’s $12.167MM salary for 2020, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Cozart joined the Angels as a high-priced free-agent signing two winters ago, when he inked a three-year, $38MM contract after a career campaign with the Reds. But Cozart was neither healthy nor effective as a member of the Angels, with whom he consistently struggled to perform and dealt with injuries. The 34-year-old took just 107 plate appearances in 2019, when he slashed a horrid .124/.178/.144 without a home run and missed the majority of the season with shoulder problems. Cozart’s year came to an end in mid-July when he underwent what the Angels called an “arthroscopic debridement of his left shoulder.”

Getting rid of Cozart looks like a major score for the Angels, who could use his money to further improve their chances of landing a major free agent (Gerrit Cole? Anthony Rendon?). In the Giants’ case, it’s unclear how much playing time Cozart will receive next season. They already have Evan Longoria at third base and Brandon Crawford at shortstop, after all, with youngster Mauricio Dubon possibly in line to garner the lion’s share of reps at second base.

Considering Wilson’s involvement, this may be a case of the Giants essentially buying a prospect. The 21-year-old Wilson, formerly with North Carolina State, is just months removed from joining the Angels as the 15th pick in the 2019 draft. The Angels paid $3.4MM to lock up Wilson at the time, but they’ve now deemed him expendable in an effort to get Cozart’s money off the books.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On David Price Trade Talks

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It seems more and more plausible that the Red Sox will end up working out a deal involving lefty David Price, MLB.com’s Mark Feisand reports. The Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, and Angels have all shown varying degrees of interest in the 34-year-old, per the report.

Price is still owed $32MM a year for the next three seasons. That’s a big chunk of change for a 34-year-old who has made just 63 starts over the past three seasons — including 22 starts in a 2019 campaign that was cut short by elbow and wrist issues. Price was the embodiment of durability from 2010-16, pacing the Major Leagues with 1529 1/3 innings over that seven-year stretch, but he’s totaled just 358 frames over the past three seasons.

When on the field, of course, Price remains an effective pitcher — albeit one whose weighty annual salary no longer aligns with his rate of compensation. Dating back to 2017, Price owns a 3.75 ERA and 3.82 FIP. The 2019 season resulted in one of the worst ERAs of Price’s career (4.28), but he did give some reason for optimism with a career-high 10.7 K/9 and 28 percent strikeout rate. Price’s control remained solid (2.7 BB/9, seven percent walk rate), and his 21.0 K-BB% was the second-best of his career. Stranding runners was an issue, and a career-high .336 average on balls in play against him assuredly did Price no favors. Ultimately, though, Red Sox ownership’s desire to drop back below the luxury tax line is the driving factor in moving Price, whose seven-year, $217MM contract comes with a $31MM annual luxury hit.

Feinsand notes that the Red Sox have no desire to attach a desirable young player such as Andrew Benintendi to Price in order to simply shed the remainder of his contract. The Athletic’s Chad Jennings offers a similar sentiment (subscription required). “I don’t think we’d ever want to rule anything out,” chief baseball office Chaim Bloom of parting with prospects to help facilitate a Price trade (quote via Jennings). “But so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Sox would be forced to simply include cash along with Price in a trade. The Boston organization could certainly acquire another unpalatable contract in return, thus helping to . The Padres have discussed the possibility of including Wil Myers in a deal, for instance, although there’s no indication that such talks gained any traction. Myers himself is owed a regrettable $61MM over the next three seasons and just wrapped up an ugly .239/.321/.418 effort, striking out in 34.2 percent of his plate appearances along the way.

Angels Have Shown Interest In Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco

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11:06pm: The Angels and Indians are “currently in discussions” regarding Kluber, but the Halos are facing competition from other teams, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. As Fletcher notes, if this trade happens, Kluber will reunite with former Indians pitching coach and current Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway.

8:05pm: The Angels lost the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes to the Yankees, but now the rotation-needy club could be zeroing in on a different high-profile starter. They’ve shown interest in Indians right-hander Corey Kluber, per reports from Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The Angels have also looked at fellow Indians righty Carlos Carrasco, according to Sherman.

The 2019 campaign was an unexpectedly rough go for both Kluber and Carrasco, who had been excellent in prior seasons. Carrasco missed a large portion of the season after a leukemia diagnosis, but he made an inspiring return as a reliever at the start of September. Meantime, Kluber sat out the final few months of the season after suffering a fractured right forearm May 1. Before that, the two-time Cy Young winner limped to an uncharacteristically bloated 5.80 ERA over seven starts and 35 2/3 innings.

Although last season was a struggle for Kluber and Carrasco, their track records suggest they could make for appealing targets for teams that don’t reel in any top free-agent starters. However, it’s not clear whether the Indians – longtime playoff contenders – are willing to part with either hurler. If they’re looking to shave salary and pivot toward a rebuild, though, dealing either could make sense. The 33-year-old Kluber could be a stopgap for an acquiring club, as he has just one more guaranteed season on his contract. He’ll earn $17.5MM in 2020, after which his employer will have to decide on an $18MM club option or a $1MM buyout for ’21. Carrasco, 32, is due $37.5MM through 2022, including a $3MM buyout for ’23.

Whether it’s Kluber, Carrasco or another starter(s), it does seem the Angels will have to make at least one more addition to their staff to join the just-acquired Dylan Bundy, Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning. That should hold true even if the Angels manage to pick up a big hitter like Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson, the two best position players left on the board and a pair of players who have drawn their interest.

Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish

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The latest on several pitchers…

  • The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
  • Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
  • Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
  • Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.  The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
  • The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.

Angels, Anthony Rendon In “Active Talks”; Rangers Out

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9:00pm: The Rangers are out of the race, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. They never wanted to go more than five years for Rendon, who has sought seven, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. They’ve now turned their attention to the No. 2 third baseman on the market, Josh Donaldson, per Sullivan.

8:29pm: The Angels are engaged in “active talks” with free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. They’re “working hard” to sign him, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, while Rosenthal adds that the Angels are hoping to finalize a deal tonight.

With the Dodgers seemingly drifting from the Rendon race, it may come down to a pair of AL West rivals to sign the longtime Washington superstar. The Rangers remain in the mix, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson, who notes that they’ve met with Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, once during the Winter Meetings.

While Rendon’s a Texas native, which could work in the Rangers’ favor, it seems the Angels are determined to get this done. At the moment, they’re “pretty deep in negotiation” to sign him, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. The Angels already lost out on two big targets in Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees) this week. Cole’s exit from the board left Rendon as the best player available, and he should join Strasburg and Cole in signing for well over $200MM. It appears the Angels are prepared to pay the price.

Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians

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2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.

2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.

What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.

As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.

Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

Gerrit Cole Rumors: 12/10/19

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Where’s Gerrit Cole going to land? That’s what everyone wants to know. We’ve got a poll going this morning, but otherwise we’re eagerly awaiting the day’s news on the top free agent.

We’ll track the chatter here …

  • The Cole sweepstakes is closing in on an ending, reports Heyman, who adds it would take “a major upset” for him to sign with someone other than the Yankees, Angels or Dodgers.

Earlier Reports

  • There is “serious and intense” bidding going on for Cole, who looks more and more likely to reach an agreement at the Winter Meetings, Heyman tweets. It’s “likely” the Astros and the Giants are the mystery clubs in the Cole derby, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, though the sources he has spoken with have cast on doubt on the hurler ending up with either team. That seemingly leaves the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers to fight it out for Cole.
  • The Astros may be one of the mystery teams, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who writes that they’re considering making a late charge to re-sign Cole. He was, of course, an enormously important part of the Astros’ pitching staff from 2018-19, and owner Jim Crane said last month the team would at least make an effort to keep him. Keeping Cole would likely at least push the Astros over the second level of the luxury tax ($228MM), as Sherman notes, but the reigning AL champions do have some holes in their rotation with him and Wade Miley as free agents. Perhaps a desire to keep Cole, AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke together atop the Astros’ staff will drown out any tax concerns for Crane.
  • Agent Scott Boras confirmed recent reports that indicate a deal could come together quickly. He told reporters gathered for his annual media scrum that a decision may come “in the short term,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter links). Boras also says there are two mystery teams involved in Cole’s market, though it’s not evident just what constitutes a mystery team from his perspective.
  • Cole’s major pursuers are known (Angels, Yankees, Dodgers), along with a few lurkers (Rangers, Phillies). But there’s also a mystery team involved, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman himself casts doubt upon the legitimacy of this unidentified organization, noting that it is difficult to envision a new entrant to the market vaulting past the existing bidders. Indeed, it is quite difficult to peg a serious bidder among the remaining teams around the league. There are certainly other contenders that would love to add Cole, but in every case there’s reason to question the plausibility. That said, there have been surprises in the past and nothing can be ruled out entirely until there’s a team announcement on a signing.
  • Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (via Twitter) that he has been given reason to believe that the Giants would represent “a desirable destination” from Cole’s perspective. But he says he is not aware whether the team is involved and cautions that he has no reason to believe the San Francisco organization is a serious possible landing spot for the right-hander.

Latest On Madison Bumgarner

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DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.

DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.

10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.

Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.

The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.

Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.

There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.

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