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Phillies Sign Kolby Allard

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2:55pm: It’s a split deal for Allard that’d pay him at a $1MM rate in the Majors with another $125K via incentives, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Allard will earn at a $375K rate in the minors, Gelb adds.

2:32pm: The Phillies announced Tuesday that they’ve signed free agent left-hander Kolby Allard to a one-year contract. The Excel Sports Management client will be added to Philadelphia’s 40-man roster, although he has a minor league option remaining, so it’s not a lock he’ll be on the Opening Day roster. Allard, who was non-tendered by the Braves back in November, has three-plus years of MLB service (3.162) and is controllable through the 2026 season.

Originally selected by the Braves with the No. 14 overall pick back in 2015, Allard long rated as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. Back injuries hobbled him throughout the early stages of his career, however, and he’s yet to establish himself at the MLB level in parts of six seasons with the Braves and Rangers. Atlanta traded Allard to Texas in the 2019 swap that sent reliever Chris Martin to Atlanta, and the Rangers sent him back to the Braves following the 2022 season in exchange for righty Jake Odorizzi (plus $10MM to cover the bulk of Odorizzi’s $12MM salary).

In 2023, Allard opened the season on the 60-day injured list owing to a Grade 2 oblique strain suffered in camp. He returned over the summer but made only four appearances before inflammation in his shoulder led to him being shut back down and shelved for the remainder of the year. He was limited to just 12 1/3 innings overall, yielding nine runs on 16 hits and four walks with 13 strikeouts (6.57 ERA).

Allard has just one season with a sub-5.00 ERA under his belt — the 4.96 mark he recorded through nine starts (45 1/3 innings) during his first season as a Ranger. He’s made 38 MLB starts and another 31 relief appearances, accumulating a total of 245 innings but with an unsightly 6.10 ERA to show for it. Allard has missed bats at close to league-average levels in brief looks over the past two seasons, but he has a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate in his career and sits in the 90-91 mph range with his fastball. He’s regularly shown strong command, evidenced by a 7.7% walk rate in his time as a big leaguer.

While he hasn’t found sustained MLB success yet, Allard does have a nice track record in the upper minors. He’s pitched in parts of four Triple-A seasons, totaling 323 innings at that level, and recorded a solid 3.71 earned run average in that time. Along the way, he’s fanned 23.4% of his opponents against an 8.3% walk rate — all while working exclusively out of the starting rotation.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this month that he’d been engaged with several free agents in an effort to bolster his team’s rotation depth behind its top five starters: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Allard is one step toward doing so, and he’ll cost little more than the 40-man roster spot which the team has promised to him.

It’s certainly feasible that Allard could eventually join the big league club as a swingman or lefty reliever, but out-of-options journeyman Dylan Covey seems likely to hold that long relief job to begin the season. And, given that Dombrowski was speaking on record about pursuing exactly this type of rotation depth just a few weeks ago, it seems fair to expect that the initial plan for Allard is for him to open the year in the rotation in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. A spring injury to one of the current starters or perhaps a strong showing (and matching poor performance from Covey) could alter that trajectory, of course.

Phillies Notes: Hicks, Pitching Depth, Kilambi

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Before Jordan Hicks signed with the Giants last week, the right-hander and the Phillies shared some “mutual interest,” according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb.  The extent of the talks between the two sides isn’t known, or if the Phils offered Hicks anything in the ballpark of the four years and $44MM he received from San Francisco.  However, Gelb notes that “the Phillies viewed Hicks as a reliever,” which might have been a difference-maker since the Giants plan to give Hicks a chance to stick as a starting pitcher.

The hard-throwing Hicks might have stepped right into the closer’s job in Philly, or at least joined Jose Alvarado, Gregory Soto and Jeff Hoffman in the late-game mix now that Craig Kimbrel has left for the Orioles in free agency.  It isn’t a secret that Philadelphia has been looking for bullpen help, and while president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has stated that further offseason additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, the Phils’ pursuits of Hicks and (before he joined the Angels) Robert Stephenson indicate that the club is still prepared to make a significant financial outlay on a possible upgrade.

As much as the Phillies would like to more options to both the rotation and relief corps, however, they’re in something of a Catch-22 situation of having too much pitching depth to acquire more pitching depth.  Philadelphia’s starting five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez is set, and while the Phillies might want to add a more experienced depth arm in front of Dylan Covey or Nick Nelson, such available pitchers might seek out a team with a more clear-cut opportunity for innings.

“I’ve got a list of names and all that,” Dombrowski told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  “Once they get done with [holding out for] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, then they can start looking and say, ’Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there, so maybe that’s an opportunity to go to Triple-A and be in that spot.’ “

Lauber’s broader piece focuses on the Phillies’ efforts to keep their pitchers healthy, including some changes to the front office and organizational structure during Dombrowski’s three-plus years as PBO.  These changes included the hiring of Brian Kaplan as the Phils’ director of pitching in 2022, some new hires on the strength and conditioning staff, and a more streamlined training and communication process between players, coaches, and trainers at both the Major League and minor league levels.

The results were apparent last season, as the Phillies enjoyed an unusual amount of both quality and good health from their rotation.  Philadelphia starters ranked first in baseball in fWAR (17.7) and third (899) in innings thrown by starting pitchers, despite something of a revolving door with the fifth starter position before Sanchez stabilized things.  Of course, durability is no guarantee from one season to the next, so the Phillies want to be prepared in the likely event that the rotation simply won’t be as healthy as it was in 2023.

There is also an analytical element to the Phillies’ success in both keeping pitchers on the mound and in helping them achieve new levels of success, and this is the department of assistant GM Ani Kilambi.  The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey recently profiled the 29-year-old Kilambi, who was hired just over two years ago out of the Rays’ front office to bolster and modernize the Phillies’ rather understaffed research and development team.

“[Kilambi has] done a fantastic job of providing resources to understand how we get the most out of our players,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said.  “It could be pitch usage, it could be biomechanics, it could be how they think.  It’s about giving us, as coaches, more tools to make a connection with a pitcher.”

Mets, Phillies Interested In Robert Stephenson

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Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson continues to receive plenty of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com listing the Mets, Dodgers and Phillies as clubs with interest in him. The Dodgers have previously been connected to the righty, as have the Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox and Orioles, though some of those clubs have subsequently pivoted to other bullpen moves.

Though Stephenson might not be a household name, the popularity is understandable since Stephenson was one of the best relievers in the game during the second half of 2023. The Rays acquired him from the Pirates in early June and he went on to make 42 appearances for Tampa with a 2.35 earned run average. He only walked 5.7% of the batters he faced in that time while punching out 42.9% of them.

From the start of June to the end of the season, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks had higher strikeout rates among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. But all three of them had higher walk rates, meaning Stephenson’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was higher than those three. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR put Stephenson in the #27 slot on the annual Top 50 Free Agents post with a prediction of a four-year, $36MM contract.

That’s a far cry from the six years and $110MM predicted for Josh Hader, which is a reflection of the differences in their track record. Hader has years of dominant relief work on his résumé while a team signing Stephenson would be banking on a few good months. But he has shown glimpses of his potential in the past, having been a first-round pick of the Reds in 2011 and a top 100 prospect as he worked his way up the minor league ladder.

He began his major league career as a starter and struggled, but a move to the bullpen seemed to work for him. He had a 3.76 ERA with the Reds in 2019, had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, then rebounded with a 3.13 ERA for the Rockies in 2021. He struggled early in 2022 but finished strong after a claim by the Pirates. He started 2023 with some arm discomfort and struggled out of the gate, before getting traded to the Rays and having the aforementioned breakout.

That inconsistency would appear to make him more of a risk than Hader, but that will also make him more affordable and perhaps give some more upside to whoever eventually gets him to put pen to paper. If he signs for a guarantee roughly a third of what Hader gets and then can maintain his dominance going forward, it would be a clear bargain. But another swoon in his performance would obviously push things the other way.

If the Mets were to be the club to take the plunge, it would be at least a bit of a surprise. President of baseball operations David Stearns did just say last week that he expected more work to be done on the bullpen, and owner Steve Cohen has shown that he isn’t afraid to throw money around when he wants to get a deal done. But on the other hand, the club has been shifting gears this winter, opting for short-term and depth moves as they do a sort of retool.

The only multi-year deal they’ve given out so far this winter was a two-year pact for Sean Manaea, with that deal having an opt-out halfway through. The Mets have also given one-year deals to Luis Severino Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It seems the plan is to limit long-term commitments as they assess some internal players and decide how to proceed with more aggression next winter.

Beyond their own habits this offseason, there’s the competitive balance tax to consider. Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $318MM right now, well beyond the top tier of the tax, which is $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, all further spending comes with a 110% tax rate, meaning they would have to pay out more than double the amount Stephenson would make. Combining that with their modest operating strategy in recent months, they may not end up with Stephenson on the roster, but they could make it happen if they decided they really wanted to.

As for the Phillies, they’ve had a relatively quiet winter, apart from re-signing Aaron Nola. The 2024 bullpen looks quite similar to the 2023 version, though Craig Kimbrel reached free agency and signed with the Orioles. That relief corps posted a collective 3.58 ERA last year, the seventh-best mark in the league. But relievers are known to be a fungible bunch and the club already has a strong lineup and rotation, leaving the bullpen as an obvious target area for the remainder of the offseason.

José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm all had strong results last year, to varying degrees, and will be back this year. Orion Kerkering had an exciting season, blasting through four minor league levels and then having an enticing MLB debut. Dylan Covey had some interesting results in a low-strikeout, high-grounder fashion while Andrew Bellatti took a step back from a strong 2022 season.

It’s a strong group overall but any club could benefit from adding an elite reliever and bumping everyone down a peg on the chart. The Phillies currently have a CBT number of $252MM, per Roster Resource, which puts them over the $237MM base and nearing the $257MM second line. They finished last year between the second and third line and perhaps would be comfortable ending up in that range again. Crossing the $277MM third line would involve the club’s top pick in the 2025 draft being moved back 10 places, in addition to a higher tax rate. Perhaps the club would view that as a sort of barrier, but they have plenty of room to add a reliever on a significant contract even if that is a line they don’t want to cross.

For clubs that miss out on Hader and Stephenson, some of the other relievers still available include Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson, Héctor Neris and Phil Maton.

Phillies Sign Ryan Burr To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies announced a slate of non-roster invitees to spring training Thursday, most of which were for in-house minor leaguers or minor league free agent signees whose contracts had been widely reported. Among the list was right-hander Ryan Burr. It deal was reported last month by Phillies Tailgate on X.

A 29-year-old right-hander who’s spent parts of four big league seasons with the White Sox, Burr spent the 2023 campaign in the Rays’ system after signing a minor league pact last winter. He logged 23 1/3 innings for Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate and posted a 3.09 ERA with sharp 25% strikeout rate and superlative 3.3% walk rate.

In what’s been a familiar refrain for Burr throughout his career, however, he was on and off the injured list throughout the season. Burr missed time in 2022 with a shoulder strain and missed the entire 2020 season following Tommy John surgery. He also dealt with an injured AC joint in his shoulder earlier in the 2019 season that was cut short by that TJS procedure.

Burr has just 75 innings in the big leagues but showed in 2021 what he can do at his best. That season saw him notch a 2.45 ERA in a career-high 36 2/3 frames, fanning 22% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 57% clip. Burr’s 13.9% strikeout rate that season was clearly problematic, as is the overall 12.2% walk rate he sports in his big league career. Walks weren’t an issue with the Rays’ top minor league affiliate last year, however, and if he can carry some of that newfound command over into 2024 he’ll be an interesting add to the team’s depth chart.

NL Notes: Padres, Phillies, India

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The Padres saw four members of their rotation mix department for free agency back in November, led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Along with their ace southpaw, San Diego parted ways with right-handers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez, each of whom has found a new club. At least in the case of Lugo, however, it appears San Diego hoped to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made a four-year offer to Lugo before he landed in Kansas City on a three-year, $45MM deal last month. Lin adds that while San Diego was willing to beat the Royals’ offer in terms of years, their offer came at a lower average annual value than that of Kansas City.

That the Padres would want to reunite with Lugo is hardly a surprise given his successful 2023 with the club. After spending his entire career with the Mets prior to hitting free agency last winter, Lugo signed on with San Diego on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. After spending most of his time in Queens as a reliever, Lugo stepped into the Padres’ rotation and made 26 starts for the club last year with a 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+) and 3.83 FIP in 146 1/3 innings of work. San Diego entered the winter with just Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish locked into the 2024 rotation, and the return of Lugo would have greatly improved the club’s rotation even after the Padres managed to add Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to their Opening Day rotation mix in the Juan Soto trade.

Ultimately, of course, Lugo chose to head to Kansas City. Still, that the Padres felt they had enough room in the budget to make an offer to Lugo could be a positive sign for the club’s ability to fill the remaining holes on their roster before Opening Day. Adding at least one more starter to slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside King figures to be a priority for the Padres, particularly after they’ve addressed the bullpen by landing Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go in recent weeks. Beyond the rotation, the club’s lineup is in dire need of an overhaul after the club parted ways with Soto, Trent Grisham, and Matt Carpenter in trade this offseason. A left-handed bat such as Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario would make plenty of sense to occupy either left field or DH, and the club was also recently reported as being among the teams interested in center fielder Michael A. Taylor.

More from around the National League…

  • As the Phillies look to augment their club with pitching and outfield depth this winter, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that they’ve received interest in a package of shortstop prospect Bryan Rincon and catching prospect Eduardo Tait from at least three clubs, though Philadelphia has rebuffed the advances of rival clubs on the duo to this point. Rincon, in February, was a 14th-round pick by the Phillies in the 2022 draft and sports strong defense along with a switch-hitting bat and a 14.8% walk rate for his career in the minor leagues against a strikeout rate of just 17.8%. Tait, meanwhile, signed with the Phillies out of Panama last year and slashed an impressive .333/.400/.517 during his first taste of affiliated ball in the Dominican Summer League.
  • Among the 22 arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to a contract with his club for the 2024 season by yesterday’s deadline was Reds second baseman Jonathan India, who filed at $4MM against the club’s $3.2MM counteroffer. Reds GM Nick Krall recently spoke regarding the dispute between player and club, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. As relayed by Wittenmyer, Krall emphasized that he doesn’t consider the impending arbitration hearing to be “adversarial” and explained the $800K gap in negotiations by saying that there was a “fundamental issue” between the sides that prevented the deal from getting done. Clubs often take strict stances in arbitration negotiations because both settlements and arbitration decisions can be used as precedent for salaries not for the player in question as he advances through the arbitration process but also by future players around the league. That at times leads to tension between players and their clubs, with right-hander Corbin Burnes’s spat with the Brewers last year standing as a recent example.

The Phillies’ Next Steps

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It’s been a quiet offseason in Philadelphia to this point — well, as quiet as is possible for a team that doled out a $172MM contract. The Phils struck early and decisively to keep longtime rotation anchor Aaron Nola on a new seven-year deal worth that sum, but it’s been largely silent since that time. Philadelphia made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, and the team is also said to have interest in extending Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency next winter.

Other than that, there’s been borderline silence out of Philadelphia. Even in terms of minor league free agency, the Phils have added hard-throwing righty Jose Ruiz and… that’s it. There’s obviously a good bit of offseason left to unfold, but for a team coming off consecutive NLCS berths and with clear World Series aspirations, it’s been a bit surprising. Their only signings beyond Nola and Ruiz have been low-cost deals to avoid arbitration with backup outfielder/first baseman Jake Cave ($1MM), swingman Dylan Covey ($850K) and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs ($850K).

That said, it’s clear that the Phillies aren’t yet finished with their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much last week, telling Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his team is “not just satisfied” and is still working to improve. Where could the Phillies search for upgrades in an unusually quiet offseason by their standards? Let’s take a look:

Bullpen upgrades

The Phils have a need in the ’pen after seeing Craig Kimbrel depart and piecing together much of the relief corps via minor league free agency a year ago. Dombrowski’s low-cost pickup of Jeff Hoffman proved to be a masterstroke, but bullpen-mate Andrew Bellatti’s dismal 2023 campaign illustrates the perils of simply assuming that a breakout performance from a minor league free-agent pickup in the ’pen will carry over to the following season. Hoffman was genuinely dominant for the Phils, but his track record is limited.

Rob Thomson’s bullpen figures to be anchored by Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Gregory Soto. Bellatti is still on hand, and the aforementioned Covey can provide long relief and serve as a spot starter. Dombrowski spoke highly of rookie Orion Kerkering when chatting with Lauber and even noted that he’s turned down trade offers for the promising 22-year-old.

The Inquirer’s Alex Coffey reported in December that making some kind of bullpen addition is in the Phillies’ plans. Jayson Stark of The Athletic suggested not long before that report that the Phils aren’t likely to pursue a pure closer, so don’t expect a Josh Hader splash at Citizens Bank Park. If the Phils are comfortable making a long-term move, they could look to righties Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. But Dombrowski has erred toward short-term additions in recent offseasons, signing Matt Strahm (two years, $15MM), Kimbrel (one year, $10MM) and Corey Knebel (one year, $10MM). If he follows a similar path, names like Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek and old friends Hector Neris and Michael Fulmer could be in play.

Right-handed outfielder

Stark wrote back in November that the Phillies were planning to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder to their corner outfield mix. That new addition could serve as a platoonmate for Brandon Marsh in left field or perhaps handle left field on a full-time basis if Marsh were to slide into a timeshare with Johan Rojas in center field. A handful of notable names have come off the board, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Hunter Renfroe and most recently Teoscar Hernandez. However, the Phils never seemed likely to play at the Gurriel/Hernandez level anyhow, given the presence of Marsh, Rojas, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber.

There’s no shortage of free agents who could fill a part-time corner role. Candidates for that type of job include Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and switch-hitters Aaron Hicks, and Robbie Grossman. If the Phils are content to push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon to open the season, they could look to Adam Duvall or versatile Whit Merrifield to hold down a more regular role in left.

The bench, in general

A more speculative need here, but the Philadelphia bench doesn’t look like that of a repeat NLCS club with World Series aspirations. Stubbs hit .204/.274/.283 in 125 plate appearances last year — the polar opposite of a .264/.350/.462 slash he posted in a near-identical sample the preceding season. Cave hit just .212/.272/.348. Both have already been signed to the cheap 2024 deals I referenced earlier, but Stubbs has an option remaining and Cave would surely clear waivers and could be stashed in Triple-A as depth, should the Phils make a more substantial addition.

Pache and Edmundo Sosa represent a pair of strong defensive options for the outfield and infield, respectively, but neither has much of a bat (Pache’s solid 2023 showing in a tiny sample of 95 plate appearances notwithstanding). There’s some versatility here, with Pache being a plus defender at any outfield slot and Sosa capable at any of shortstop, second base and third base. But this is a weak group in terms of offensive potential, and a long-term injury to a regular would further expose that reality.

One possible scenario that could alter this mix would be to sign a full-time third baseman and push Alec Bohm into a reserve role. While the 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick popped 20 home runs and finished third on the club with 97 runs plated, there’s some reason to be skeptical of his ability to continue that level of run production. Bohm has excellent bat-to-ball skills and roughly average power, but the overwhelming bulk of his damage was done against lefties. He torched southpaws at a .303/.335/.594 clip (142 wRC+) but was effectively a singles hitter against righties (.263/.324/.377, 92 wRC+). His career splits paint a similar picture: .314/.362/.530 against lefties but .262/.311/.358 against righties.

If Bohm were a plus or even average defender, that offensive profile would carry him just fine. However, Bohm has been dinged for -46 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average at third base in his career. He might be a better fit at first base, but that belongs to Bryce Harper now.

Bohm clearly has a big league-caliber bat, but it’s easy to argue that he’s best deployed in a more limited role, given the shaky glove and punchless output against right-handed opposition. He’s only in his first year of arbitration and projected to earn $4.4MM (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), so he’s plenty affordable in that role. But as he inches through arbitration, the price could begin to outpace his value if he racks up counting stats in an everyday role and doesn’t make substantive gains against right-handed pitching.

The Bohm scenario, to reiterate, is speculative in nature and not something to which Dombrowski has publicly alluded. But the third base market has names like Justin Turner, Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela in free agency, while there are several teams (Reds, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles) who have some infield surpluses that could present trade possibilities. There’s no glaring hole in the lineup here — as one might expect from a back-to-back LCS participant — but a more specialized role for Bohm could improve the roster in multiple ways. Alternatively, the Phils could add a third baseman and see if Bohm could fill that right-handed-hitting void in left field. The defense might not be pretty, but that’s already true as it is at third base.

Rotation depth

One current hangup, at least as pertains to Dombrowski’s quest to add more rotation depth, is that free agents look at the Phillies’ roster and don’t see an opportunity for a guaranteed rotation spot with Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez all locked in. Dombrowski noted to Lauber that he’s hopeful of eventually adding some veteran arms who’ll be willing to start the year in Triple-A and serve as rotation depth, but most pitchers of that ilk are still hoping for concrete spots with other teams who have more acute rotation needs.

The Phillies could very arguably benefit from signing an established veteran to a short-term (possibly one-year) pact and plugging him into the fifth spot in the rotation. However, Sanchez is out of minor league options, so he can’t simply be sent down to the minors. And, after he impressed with a 3.44 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and pristine 4% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings last year, he’s certainly earned a look. Dombrowski said as much earlier in the winter, noting in an appearance on MLB Network that if the club succeeded in re-signing Nola, the rotation would be “set” — largely because of a desire to take a full-season look at Sanchez after that impressive 2023 showing. That didn’t stop the Phillies from making an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was viewed as something of an exception, given his age and upside.

The free-agent market should feature several recognizable names who’ll end up signing non-guaranteed deals. Predicting exactly who’ll be squeezed out of a big league deal requires some degree of guesswork, but rebound candidates like Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Keller and Yonny Chirinos come to mind as plausible possibilities.

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

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While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Phillies Prioritizing Extension With Zack Wheeler

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The Phillies’ “No. 1 priority” for the remainder of the offseason “is signing ace Zack Wheeler to a contract extension,” MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes.  Wheeler is set to be a free agent next winter, as he is entering the final season of his five-year, $118MM contract.

Four seasons in, that deal has been an unqualified success from the Phillies’ perspective.  Wheeler has the most fWAR (19.3) of any starter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season, as he has posted a 3.06 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 47% grounder rate over 629 1/3 regular-season innings in a Philadelphia uniform.  The right-hander has been even more dominant during the postseason, delivering a 2.42 ERA over 63 1/3 playoff innings to help carry the Phillies to an NL pennant and an NLCS appearance over the last two seasons.

There aren’t many red flags on Wheeler as he enters his age-34 season, even if his 3.61 ERA in 2023 was the highest of his Philadelphia tenure.  He generated fewer grounders and allowed a bit more hard contact than usual, and Wheeler relied more heavily on his signature four-seamer than ever before — he reduced his cutter usage since the secondary pitch wasn’t as effective as it had been in 2021-22.

Health-wise, Wheeler underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2015 and battled some other arm problems during his time with the Mets in 2016-17.  He has been quite durable ever since, and a month-long bout of forearm tendinitis late in the 2022 season ended up being relatively minor, as Wheeler returned in strong form for the Phillies’ playoff run.

With his track record of success and durability, Wheeler figures to be one of the most sought-after members of the 2024-25 free agent class, even if he’ll be turning 35 in May 2025.  As such, Wheeler and his representatives at Wasserman might seek out a bit of a premium from the Phillies in order to keep the righty from testing the market.  A four-year extension isn’t an unreasonable ask given Wheeler’s relatively clean recent health history, and topping the $23.6MM average annual value on his current contract seems like a given.

The Phillies have obviously shown a willingness to spend big in acquiring and retaining star players over the last few seasons, even if this hasn’t manifested itself in many actual extensions.  Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are the only Phillies to sign extensions during Dave Dombrowski’s three-plus years as president of baseball operations, and those relatively modest deals (two years and $18.55MM in new money for Alvarado, two years and $7.25MM for Dominguez) aren’t in the stratosphere of what it’ll take to lock up Wheeler.  While the Phillies kept Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto in the fold on new contracts, the Phils let both players reach the open market first before eventually re-signing the duo.

It was just over a month ago that Nola was re-signed to a seven-year, $172MM deal, cementing the right-hander as a staple of the Phils’ rotation through the rest of the decade.  Nola joins Bryce Harper and Trea Turner as Philadelphia players who are already signed through at least the 2030 season, plus Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber are on the books through 2025, and Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos are signed through 2026.  An extension for Wheeler would put yet another hefty contract on the team’s ledger, though spending big on star talent has long been Dombrowski’s M.O.  The Phillies have exceeded the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons and are projected to be well over at least the first tax threshold in 2024, so owner John Middleton isn’t showing any signs of cutting back given how close the Phillies have come to a championship.

That said, it seems like a lot of the heavy lifting is over on the Phillies’ 2023-24 offseason work, now that Nola has been re-signed and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is officially off the market.  Signing Yamamoto would have arguably been a luxury for the team, yet the team viewed him as a special player worthy of a strong push, and Dombrowski told Zolecki and other reporters that “I think we were extremely competitive” in at least getting Yamamoto’s attention.

“We were aggressive. When we made our presentation [to Yamamoto’s representatives], I think our guys did a tremendous job,” Dombrowski said. “I think they presented the organization well….I don’t think it had anything to do with anything else, he just preferred to be a Dodger.  Ultimately he was just not a person attuned to coming to Philly.”

In terms of further pursuits, Dombrowski said other additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, since so much of Philadelphia’s 26-man is already set.  This will take the form of bullpen help and depth/swingman type of pitchers for the rotation, and Dombrowski downplayed the idea of adding another outfielder.  With Harper now the regular first baseman and Schwarber the regular DH, the Phillies will have Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, Jake Cave, Simon Muzziotti, and utilitymen Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens all in the mix for outfield playing time.

Phillies Have Made Offer To Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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The Phillies have put forth a formal contract offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. While terms are unreported, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote earlier in the week the club was planning to be aggressive in its pursuit of the NPB star.

It’s notable, if unsurprising, that the Phillies have put an official proposal on the table. Nevertheless, both Gelb and Coffey suggest it’s unlikely the Phillies’ offer will be the highest that Yamamoto receives. Gelb adds that team officials are uncertain how much interest the pitcher has in Philadelphia.

That all aligns with earlier reporting casting the Phils as a relative long shot among the seven known finalists: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox being the others. Yamamoto didn’t stop in Philadelphia as part of his North American tour, instead meeting with club personnel in Los Angeles.

Of course, the starting point for most free agents is financial. If the Phillies’ offer does wind up below the top bids, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sign elsewhere. Philadelphia doesn’t necessarily need a starting pitcher. A front five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is strong. Prospect Mick Abel could pitch his way into the midseason mix. Even if there’s no question the group would be improved by adding NPB’s best pitcher, other clubs could feel more urgency to top the market.

The Dodgers are reportedly weighing an offer that’d land somewhere between $250MM and $300MM. SNY’s Andy Martino said last night that the Mets were putting together “a very serious offer” of their own. Most or all of the seven clubs with which the 25-year-old has met recently are likely to submit an offer this week.

Yamamoto has until the evening of January 4 to sign. He isn’t expected to wait that long. There has been speculation he could decide by the end of the week, although that’s not guaranteed. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweeted this evening that while one executive involved in the bidding expected Yamamoto to sign before Christmas, another suggested he could deliberate until just before the end of the year.

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