Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Archives for October 30, 2013

Quick Hits: Red Sox, A-Rod, Cardenas, D’Backs

By | at

The Boston Red Sox are the 2013 World Series champions, just a season removed from a last-place finish in the AL East.  CBS Sports' Jon Heyman details how the Sox focused on acquiring less-heralded free agents who could handle the pressure of playing in Boston, and almost all of those free agents delivered big contributions throughout the season and through the playoffs.  While the return to good health and good form by several holdover Red Sox stars also played a huge role, several teams will be looking to replicate Boston's free agent strategy in the coming offseason.

Here are some notes from around baseball as the Hot Stove League has officially begun…

  • The Red Sox were immeasurably helped by the "payroll miracle" of their August 2012 blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  The Yankees could get a similar "financial reset" if all or most of Alex Rodriguez's 2014 salary is removed from the books via suspension, allowing the Yankees to re-sign Robinson Cano, sign other free agents and also avoid the $189MM luxury tax limit.
  • Rodriguez's appeal hearing may not be decided until late December, Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger reports, which could impact the Yankees' offseason spending plans.
  • Adrian Cardenas, drafted 37th overall by the Phillies in 2006, walked away from a promising career at age 25 and with just 67 Major League PA to his name.  In a fascinating piece for the New Yorker, Cardenas details the thought process that went into his decision and his gradual disillusionment with the professional side of the game.
  • The Diamondbacks don't have much payroll flexibility for 2014, as The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro notes in his breakdown of the Snakes' salary obligations.  Piecoro suggests that the D'Backs could sign free agents by backloading their contracts for 2015 and beyond, when the club has more money coming off the books.
  • The Dominican Republic recently passed a law stating that children of undocumented Haitian immigrants would no longer be considered Dominican citizens, even if they were born in the country.  Jorge Arangure of Sports On Earth investigates how this ruling could make it harder for amateur ballplayers of Haitian descent to obtain the proper visa or citizenship information to play in Major League Baseball.
  • The Pirates can afford to be more patient this offseason, GM Neal Huntington tells Jenn Menendez and Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  A.J. Burnett's future needs to be decided first, however, since his status will determine the rest of the Buccos' moves.  "If we retain A.J, that will be a significant positive, but also it's going to cost us a good chunk of the available money, and we'll have to react accordingly," Huntington said.
  • The Marlins could fill a few needs by targeting the Angels' Mark Trumbo and Chris Iannetta in trades, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro opines as part of a reader mailbag.
  • The Blue Jays have hired Kevin Seitzer as their new hitting coach, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports.  Seitzer previously worked as the hitting coach for the Diamondbacks and Royals, and he and Jays manager John Gibbons worked together on the K.C. staff from 2009-11.

AL Central Notes: Royals, Asdrubal, Indians, Hahn

By | at

A few items from around the AL Central…

  • After making a big push to contend in 2013, the Royals need to be willing to raise payroll to put the team over the top next season, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star opines.  "If there was ever a time the Royals had both the resources and motivation to make a push for the short-term, this is it," Mellinger writes.
    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/10/30/4587620/royals-mantra-must-be-spend-now.html#storylink=cpy
  • The Indians won't move Asdrubal Cabrera this offseason, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer predicts during his podcast with Dan Labbe.  Shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor isn't ready and is coming off a significant back injury, and Mike Aviles is a better fit for the Tribe as a bench player.  Cabrera hit only .242/.299/.402 in 562 PA in 2013 and will be a free agent following the 2014 season.
  • "There is so much focus on the offense, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Tribe approaches upgrading its defense this winter," MLB.com's Jordan Bastian writes in an examination of the Indians' fielding numbers.  Cleveland had a team UZR/150 of -4.5 in 2013, the fifth-worst UZR/150 of any club in baseball.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that he'd like to get his team back on the winning track as quickly as the Red Sox did from 2012 to 2013 but that might not involve mining the free agent market as much as Boston did.  "There's not going to be a free agent — premium or otherwise — who we don't view as helping us that we won't check in on at least….We're not ruling anything out.  But the options in the free-agent market probably won't be quite as robust as some trade opportunities," Hahn said.  The bigger-picture plan for Hahn is to build from within rather than just pursue "short-term fixes." 
  • In AL Central news from earlier today, White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham is drawing trade interest from the Blue Jays, and the Tigers will not be re-signing free agent catcher Brayan Pena.

Giants Notes: Abreu, Vogelsong, Lopez, Tanaka, Belt

By | at

Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com participated in a live chat with fans today and shared a number of Giants-related hot stove items…

  • The Giants "went hard after" Jose Dariel Abreu and offered the Cuban slugger a contract that paid him roughly the same average annual value of his six-year, $68MM deal with the White Sox.  The catch was that the Giants' offer wasn't six years long as they didn't want to make that long a commitment to a player that is projected by many scouts to be a future designated hitter.
  • Ryan Vogelsong's $6.5MM option won't be picked up by the Giants but Baggarly thinks the veteran righty will re-sign on a cheaper one-year deal with incentives.
  • There is mutual interest between the Giants and Javier Lopez, and the money saved by declining Vogelsong's option could help the club afford the veteran southpaw.
  • The Giants are "probably not" realistic players for Masahiro Tanaka, as Baggarly figures that his posting price will exceed what the Giants are willing to offer, plus big spenders like the Dodgers and Yankees are in the mix.  Baggarly reported in August that San Francisco had an interest in the Japanese righty.
  • Brandon Belt could be approached about a contract extension in Spring Training but the Giants will just work out a one-year deal in the meantime to cover Belt's first year of arbitration eligibility.  MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects Belt to earn $2.4MM in 2014 and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes suggests that Allen Craig's extension could be a model for a Belt extension, though with some adjustments since Belt is a Super Two player.
  • The Giants are looking only for "reliable innings guys" in their rotation so the likes of Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson and Josh Johnson will only draw the club's interest if they're healthy.
  • Though the Giants are looking for a right-handed power bat and might trade prospects to get one, the club is unlikely to move the likes of Kyle Crick, Edwin Escobar or Adalberto Mejia.
  • When it comes to left field, the Giants may prioritize defense.  Baggarly expects San Francisco to look for a left fielder in a trade rather than free agency.
  • Baggarly hasn't heard Scott Kazmir's name mentioned as a possibility in San Francisco.
  • Mark Trumbo "has his admirers in the [Giants] front office."  While the Angels are known to be willing to move Trumbo for young pitching talent, I'm not sure the Giants are a good trade partner given that they're looking for arms themselves.
  • Given Marco Scutaro's age, Brandon Phillips "makes a lot of sense" for the Giants.  Baggarly makes it clear that he's only speculating, however.  Phillips is rumored to be on the shopping block but Reds GM Walt Jocketty recently denied that he's talked about Phillips with other teams.
  • The Giants are very unlikely to surrender their first round (14th overall) draft pick to sign a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer.  This could have a major impact on the chances of the team pursuing Bronson Arroyo, who could be extended a qualifying offer by the Reds.  Baggarly feels that Arroyo and Dan Haren are the free agent pitchers who are most likely to be San Francisco targets.
  • Recent Pablo Sandoval trade rumors are "total scuttlebutt," in Baggarly's opinion.

Tigers Will Not Re-Sign Brayan Pena

By | at

The Tigers have informed Brayan Pena that he will not be brought back for the 2014 season.  The catcher revealed the information himself via his Twitter account and MLB.com's Jason Beck confirmed the news with a Tigers spokesperson and with Paul Kinzer, Pena's agent.

Pena, 31, signed a one-year, $865K deal last winter to be Detroit's backup catcher but ended up playing much more than expected due to Alex Avila's injury problems and struggles at the plate.  Pena hit .297/.315/.397 in 243 PA, the most playing time he has received in his nine-year Major League career. 

Pena, a switch-hitter, was particularly dangerous from the left side of the plate, posting an .801 OPS against right-handed pitching.  Kinzer could point to those batting splits as evidence at his client deserves to at least be part of a platoon, rather than just a backup.  Whatever the role, it seems very likely that Pena will find another Major League contract this offseason given the thin catching market. 

The Tigers plan to look within their system to replace Pena, according to Kinzer.  Bryan Holaday and James McCann will get chances to become Avila's backup, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Detroit sign a veteran to a minor league deal to add some Spring Training depth.

Minor Moves: Peter Moylan, Freddy Guzman

By | at

Here are today's minor transactions, with the most recent moves at the top of the page…

  • Right-hander Peter Moylan has elected to become a free agent, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  The Dodgers designated Moylan for assignment last week to create 40-man roster space for the newly-signed Alexander Guerrero.  Moylan posted a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 relief innings for Los Angeles last season and was plagued by injuries in 2011-12, but the Aussie righty posted a 2.59 ERA in 260 2/3 IP out of the Braves bullpen from 2006-12.
  • The Rays outrighted Freddy Guzman to Triple-A Durham and off the Major League 40-man roster, Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Tribune reports (Twitter link).  Guzman will become a minor league free agent five days after the end of the World Series.  Guzman appeared in one Major League game (his first since 2009) last season, stealing a base and scoring as a pinch-runner.  Guzman has spent most of the last three seasons in the Mexican League and he posted a .855 OPS in 450 PA with Ciudad del Carmen in 2013.
  • Now that Moylan is a free agent, the Red Sox Pedro Beato and the Padres' Colt Hynes and Tommy Layne are the only players remaining in DFA limbo, according to MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Saltalamacchia, Offseason

By | at

The Red Sox can clinch a world title at Fenway Park for the first time in 95 years if they win tonight's Game Six against the Cardinals.  Though all eyes are focused on the World Series, here are a few hot stove notes out of Boston…

  • Xander Bogaerts' strong World Series has more or less cemented his place in the Red Sox lineup next season, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes.  Bogaerts' right-handed bat and ability to play shortstop gives the Sox breathing room in case Stephen Drew and Mike Napoli aren't brought back, and Britton doesn't think the team will bother bringing in a veteran to compete with Bogaerts at shortstop.
  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia reiterated that he wants to stay with the Red Sox over the long term but he admitted to ESPN Boston's Joe McDonald that he may have played his last game for the team.  "You don’t want to leave but at the same time it’s one of those things where it’s baseball. If it goes in that direction you can’t control it. I haven’t thought too much of a destination, but it’s definitely hit me a few times that this could be the last time," Saltalamacchia said.  The catcher has had a tough postseason both offensively and defensively and was benched for Games Four and Five of the World Series.  Though MLBTR's Tim Dierkes' prediction of a four-year, $36MM free agent contract for "Salty" was made before the playoffs began, the catching market is thin enough that Saltalamacchia's October struggles probably won't hurt him that much.
  • Theo Epstein has kept a low profile during the World Series but CBS Sports' Jon Heyman notes that Epstein deserves credit for building the core of this Red Sox team during his tenure as general manager, not to mention helping groom current GM Ben Cherington.
  • Would the Red Sox still be in the World Series if Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Liriano, Hiroki Kuroda, Cody Ross, Nate Schierholtz and Joakim Soria had been their big additions of the 2012-13 offseason?  WEEI.com's Rob Bradford looks at how the Sox considered all of these names last winter.
  • Whatever luster Boston may have lost as a free agent destination last offseason has surely been regained by the club's success, manager John Farrell told repoters (including WEEI.com's Alex Speier).
  • The Red Sox improved team chemistry surely helped their turn-around but a few league executives tell The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro that the narrative has been bit overblown.  The Diamondbacks are a team that seem to be ranking chemistry as a high priority and other clubs may follow in seeking out good clubhouse personalities like Jonny Gomes, “but if people think [Gomes] is the new market inefficiency, they are going to be disappointed," an NL executive says.

Free Agent Profile: Phil Hughes

By | at

Not long ago, the thought of Phil Hughes hitting free agency at age 27 would have come with lofty contract expectations. The former No. 4 overall prospect in the game, per Baseball America, enjoyed a dominant season in the bullpen with the 2009 Yankees en route to a World Series title. He followed it up with a solid 4.19 ERA in 176 2/3 innings in the rotation at age 24 — a season in which he earned his first All-Star nod. It's been mostly a downhill ride for Hughes since that point, however, and he'll head into free agency having posted an ERA north of 5.00 in two of his past three seasons.

Strengths/Pros

Through all his ups and downs, Hughes has steadily maintained solid control. He's averaged 2.7 walks per nine innings from 2010-13 (a span of 674 innings pitched). Part of the reason he's able to limit walks is because of the way that he attacks hitters. Hughes-PhilAmong qualified starters over that same four-year stretch, only Cliff Lee, Tommy Milone and Kevin Slowey have thrown a first-pitch strike at a higher rate than Hughes' 66.7 percent.

Additionally, his 7.6 K/9 rate over the past two seasons is a tick above the league average for starting pitchers (7.2). Hughes' 2.95 K/BB ratio ranks 13th out of the 41 potential free agent starters with more than 50 innings pitched this season.

He also compares favorably to his competition in terms of fastball velocity. Using the same criteria, Hughes' average fastball — 92.4 mph — ties him with Ervin Santana and Mike Pelfrey for eighth highest among potential free agent starters (or seventh if you want to remove Jon Lester, whose option is sure to be exercised, from the list).

Likely the most appealing factor for Hughes' suitors will be the fact that he's actually been a very solid pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Hughes checked in with a 5.19 ERA overall in 2013, but that was due to a bloated 6.32 ERA when pitching in the Bronx. On the road, Hughes posted a 3.88 ERA. Over the past four seasons, Hughes has a 4.11 ERA and 3.80 FIP on the road compared to a 5.12 ERA and 5.02 FIP at home. As a right-handed fly-ball pitcher, Yankee Stadium (and its short porch in right field) is perhaps the worst possible setting for Hughes.

Hughes is the youngest free agent starter on the market, and while at one point there was talk of the Yankees extending a qualifying offer for that reason, the Yankees don't figure to bring Hughes back for $14.1MM. He won't cost his new team a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hughes' home struggles can't simply be written off. No matter where he signs this offseason, he's going to have to pitch some games in hitter-friendly stadiums, and those are daunting settings for a pitcher with the sixth-lowest ground-ball rate in all of baseball over the past four seasons (33 percent).

While he's just 27, Hughes has some injury baggage on his resume already. He missed nearly half the season in 2011 with inflammation and fatigue in his right shoulder, and he has a history of back issues. Hughes dealt with a herniated disk in his back as a minor leaguer, and he's missed small amounts of time with back-related injuries since. He also had a stress fracture in his rib that cost him nearly all of the 2008 season.

Hughes has only topped 100 innings three times in his career, and he's never reached 200 frames. And, in two of those three 100+ innings seasons, he's significantly faded down the stretch. After a 4.57 first-half ERA in 2013, he faded with a 6.32 ERA in the season's second half. In 2010, his ERA sat at 3.65 at the All-Star break, but he limped to the finish with a second-half ERA of 4.90. Hughes' injury troubles, low innings totals and second-half struggles in seasons with a full starter's workload will give teams serious concerns about his durability.

Personal

Hughes is a devout Christian and has the bible verse "I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me" tattooed on his left arm. As he explained to Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated back in 2009, Hughes actually got the tattoo while on a road trip to Atlanta. In his free time, one of Hughes' favorite hobbies is cooking.

Market

After six years at Yankee Stadium, it seems unlikely that Hughes would opt to pitch for a team in a hitter-friendly environment. Teams in spacious home parks will likely appeal to Hughes, and it was already reported over the summer that the Twins are expected to be interested. Target Field in Minneapolis is plenty spacious, and they liked him when discussing trade packages for Johan Santana all the way back in the 2007-08 offseason.

While Hughes was quoted as saying he wouldn't immediately disregard an offer to pitch out of a team's bullpen, he clarified shortly after that his strong preference was to remain in a starting role for as long as he can. Even with his struggles at home, he shouldn't have a problem doing so.

A move to the National League could be beneficial to Hughes, who is a native of Mission Viejo, Calif. His hometown is located just 75 miles north of San Diego and 48 miles south of Los Angeles, so geographically speaking, the Padres, Dodgers and Angels may be appealing. If he's willing to pitch further north, I'd imagine the Giants and Mariners to be another pair of West Coast teams that would have interest. We've seen the Pirates buy low on talented hurlers like Francisco Liriano and (former Yankee) A.J. Burnett recently. The Nationals have done the same, albeit with less success, in signing Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren.

Expected Contract

It's rare that a starting pitcher hits free agency at such a young age, but Hughes doesn't have much of a track record on his side at this time. In fact, in a recent edition of MLBTR's Free Agent Faceoff, nearly 72 percent of the 8,000+ respondents said they'd rather sign Scott Kazmir as a free agent this offseason, despite Kazmir's own spotty track record.

Hughes could look to follow Jackson's lead and sign a one-year, make-good deal before cashing in on a multiyear contract, or he could prefer to take whatever two-year deal is on the table for him to maximize his earnings. We saw Francisco Liriano take the latter approach last offseason, and I'd expect Hughes to have an opportunity at a two-year deal with a modest annual value as well.

A rebound campaign in 2014 would set Hughes up as a desirable arm entering his age-28 season on next year's free agent market. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go the Liriano route and ink a two-year contract (he'd still be able to hit free agency again at age 29), but my prediction is that Hughes will sign a one-year, $8MM contract this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

By | at

The Athletics have contractual control over their entire starting lineup, including platoons, so GM Billy Beane will stay the course in 2014 after a second consecutive AL West title. 

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Athletics' main objective this offseason should be to figure out a way to beat Justin Verlander in an ALDS Game 5, which is how each of their past two post-season runs have ended. With tongue no longer firmly planted in cheek, the Athletics' priority this winter is what to do if, as expected, Balfour departs via free agency and to determine whether Colon's stabilizing influence is still needed for their young rotation.

The Athletics are loathe to spend valuable resources on a closer and MLBTR's Steve Adams sees Balfour netting a two-year, $18MM contract in free agency. Beane and manager Bob Melvin have both said Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook are options to replace the Australian with Beane also mentioning Dan Otero. If the Athletics want to purchase an insurance policy, there aren't many free agent closers who will accept a one-year deal in the club's price range, but Francisco Rodriguez and Kevin Gregg could fall into that category. If they simply want a veteran presence in the bullpen on a team-friendly contract, LaTroy Hawkins, David Aardsma, Kyle Farnsworth, and Brandon Lyon could provide that. Jerry Blevins and Jesse Chavez will return to round out the relief corps.

Colon, who wants to pitch three more years, is amenable to returning to Oakland and Beane has acknowledged it "would be foolish" not to "have real interest in bringing him back." There's interest, but is there room in the rotation? Sonny Gray and A.J. Griffin have injury concerns; but, if healthy, expect to front the rotation along with Jarrod Parker. Brett Anderson, Dan Straily, and Tommy Milone will compete to fill out the rotation. The oft-injured Anderson is generating some trade interest with the Blue Jays most prominently linked to the left-hander. In his Blue Jays' offseason outlook, MLBTR's Mark Polishuk theorizes Toronto could deal closer Casey Janssen for starting pitching. There is a 2014 club option on Janssen worth $4MM, which would make him appealing to the Athletics. The Blue Jays may be willing to absorb the $4MM difference in salaries in a straight-up trade for Anderson or Oakland would have to become creative by including additional player(s) and/or international bonus slot money. Dealing Anderson would also free up a rotation spot for Colon, but re-signing the 40-year-old will be dependent on how much of a raise he expects from his expiring one-year, $3MM deal. 

Most of the Athletics' other offseason moves will be procedural: which members of their 11-player arbitration class will be tendered contracts and which club options will be exercised. With regards to the former, Daric Barton, Pat Neshek, Scott Sizemore, and Fernando Rodriguez are non-tender possibilities. All four, however, are candidates to be re-signed to minor league deals. With regards to the latter, Beane has said Coco Crisp will be back in the Green and Gold next year. Crisp would like a multi-year extension, but that is a higher priority for him than the team. Anderson's option is also likely to be exercised while Chris Young and Kurt Suzuki are too expensive to retain in bench roles. Michael Choice, the team's second-ranked prospect according to MLB.com, will be called upon to fill Young's spot while the Athletics are flush behind the plate with John Jaso, Derek Norris, and Stephen Vogt competing for playing time.

The one position where the Athletics could look for an upgrade is second base. Beane may decide to bide his time with the platoon of Alberto Callaspo and Eric Sogard while waiting for shortstop Addison Russell to reach the Majors. Once that happens, current shortstop Jed Lowrie could move over to second base. Russell, the 11th overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft will start the year in either Double-A or Triple-A, according to Beane. The best available free agent second baseman Robinson Cano is too pricey for the Athletics. Potential trade targets like Rickie Weeks (whose brother, Jemile, is in the A's system) and Dan Uggla have both underperformed the past two seasons and are expensive. An intriguing possibility is Brandon Phillips, who has apparently worn out his welcome in Cincinnati. Phillips slumped in 2013 with a slash line of .261/.310/.396 in 606 plate appearances, but that would still be an improvement over the Callaspo/Sogard tandem. Phillips is due $50MM through 2017. Would Beane be willing to take on such a large salary obligation with Russell in the wings? The answer depends on the Reds' asking price in terms of money absorbed to prospects received.

The Athletics ranked third in the AL in runs scored thanks to a breakout year from third baseman Josh Donaldson (.301/.384/.499 and 24 home runs). Yoenis Cespedes fell off from his outstanding rookie campaign with a .240/.294/.442 slash line, but the 28-year-old Cuban redeemed himself somewhat by hitting .381/.409/.667 in the ALDS and is a career .350/.395/.525 hitter in 43 post-season plate appearances. Brandon Moss also contributed a career-best 30 home runs in a career-high 505 plate appearances. Josh Reddick struggled with a right wrist injury and his numbers suffered because of it. Reddick will undergo arthroscopic surgery and should be at full strength by Spring Training. With this core, Beane thinks an additional bat would be nice, but not necessary.

"You could always use more, but…scoring runs wasn't an issue for us," said Beane (as quoted by John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). "The body of work is pretty good. You'll look for ways to be better for sure, but realistically what we have and what's going to be available to us, it's hard to complain about that." 

The Athletics have won 190 games the past two years en route to a pair of division titles. But, each season ended with ALDS heartbreak at the hands of Verlander and the Tigers. With so much success, the Athletics don't see a need to make dramatic changes to overcome their playoff failures. "We won our division doing things a certain way," Beane said (as quoted by MLB.com's Jane Lee). "We just fell one game short. I don't know that you completely try to do things differently based on coming up a game short." Each move Beane makes this winter will be geared towards bridging that one-game gap. 

Blue Jays Interested In Gordon Beckham

By | at

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to the trade market. Early reports have already pegged Hank Conger and Chris Iannetta as potential trade targets for Toronto, and now Scott Merkin and Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com report that the Jays are targeting White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham as well.

Beckham, 27, hit .267/.322/.372 with a career-low five homers in a career-low 103 games this season. A broken hamate bone in his right hand cost him nearly two months of the 2013 campaign, which could have something to do with the decline in home runs. However, Beckham has never lived up to the hype that surrounded him after being selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, slashing just .249/.314/.380 in 2,217 big league plate appearances.

Beckham is eligible for arbitration for the second time this offseason, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a raise from $2.9MM to $3.5MM. He is under team control through the 2015 season.

Chisolm and Merkin go on to write that given the Jays' need to improve the rotation, it's possible that they could look to expand the deal to include a starting pitcher. The MLB.com duo notes that lefties Hector Santiago and John Danks are said to be available, also adding that the White Sox covet minor league right-handers Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. That pair of former first-round picks seems to me to be too steep an asking price for the players that the Blue Jays are targeting, but Merkin and Chisholm feel that Chicago GM Rick Hahn would need to be overwhelmed to part with Beckham.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Garza

By | at

Despite opening the season on the disabled list, Matt Garza looked to be in a position to claim the role of this offseason's top free agent starter. A slow finish to the season has jeopardized that thinking, but he still ranked seventh on Tim Dierkes' final edition of his 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.

Strengths/Pros

A former first-round pick by the Twins, Garza hasn't posted an ERA higher than 3.95 since his initial call-up with Minnesota in 2006 — a stint that lasted just 50 innings. Only one other free agent starter — Tim Hudson — can boast seven consecutive seasons of an ERA south of 4.00, and Hudson is eight years older than Garza.Garza-Matt-Rangers

In terms of fastball velocity, Garza can bring it. He's only averaged less than 93 mph on his fastball once in his eight-year career, and that came in 2009 when he averaged 92.9 mph. Garza's 93.1 mph average in 2013 tops all free agent starters, and even his "weak" (by his standards) 2009 average would've been good enough to top the list.

He was a bit wild early in his career, but Garza has four straight seasons of a 2.9 BB/9 rate or lower, and he sat at 2.4 in 2013. Dating back to 2009, he's averaged eight strikeouts per inning on the dot, and he sat at 7.9 this season.

Garza has shined on the biggest of stages, as he owns a career 3.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 31 postseason innings. He dominated in the 2009 ALCS, yielding two runs over 13 2/3 innings in two starts en route to ALCS MVP honors.

Because he was traded midseason, Garza is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer and will therefore not be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Garza has been stricken with injuries over the past two years. A stress fracture in his right elbow ended his season in late July last year (and also prevented a trade), and a lat strain caused him to miss the first seven weeks of the 2013 regular season. He made all of his starts upon activation, but the simple fact is that he's thrown just 259 innings since Opening Day 2012.

While injuries prevented a trade last year, he was flipped to the Rangers midseason in 2013. As was the case when Ryan Dempster found himself flipped to Texas in 2012, Garza didn't finish very well. Though his walk rate improved and xFIP suggests that he was actually better with the Rangers than with the Cubs, he limped to a 4.38 ERA in 13 starts with Texas.

Garza seriously boosted his ground-ball rate in 2011, jumping from a pair of sub-40-percent seasons to a robust 46.3 percent. He increased that number further in 2012 with a 47.3 percent mark, but this season saw him drop back down toward his career levels. He induced grounders at a 38.6 percent clip in 2013, which is slightly lower than his already below-average career mark of 41.2 percent.

Setting aside his ugly rookie debut, Garza has a 3.75 ERA. Incredibly, advanced metrics FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at exactly 3.96 from 2007-13. Garza can be realistically counted on for an ERA under 4.00 (and in some seasons, well under 4.00 with a bit of luck), but he lacks the durability and statistical profile of the front-line pitcher many have perceived him to be.

Personal

Garza married his high school sweetheart, Serina, and they have four children together. He is known as a passionate family man who loves to spend time with his wife and children. Per the Cubs media guide, his father, Rudy, is a Sergeant Major in the Army, and baseball clearly runs in the Garza family, as his brother Michael coaches high school ball in Florida. Garza has a fiery personality that can get the better of him at times. Garza blasted some Cubs fans on Twitter early in the year, calling them "fake" in reaction to their negativity. More controversially, he took to Twitter and launched a tirade at Athletics' second baseman Eric Sogard as well as Sogard's wife. Garza publicly apologized the following day, telling reporters that he "let his competitive spirit cross outside the lines" and that his "passion" and "fire" carried over beyond the playing field.

Market

Despite questions about his recent durability and his Twitter antics, Garza is one of the most talented and consistently productive (when healthy) pitchers on the free agent market. Many teams will be involved, particularly due to the fact that unlike Ervin Santana — the top domestic pitcher on MLBTR's Free Agent Power Rankings — he won't cost a draft pick. Other names like Hiroki Kuroda, Ubaldo Jimenez and A.J. Burnett could all be linked to draft pick compensation as well.

In a recent Free Agent Faceoff conducted by MLBTR's Aaron Steen, nearly 66 percent of the 10,000+ respondents said that they would rather have their team sign Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. After factoring in the posting fee and contract, however, Garza figures to be the cheaper option. Expect to see a wide array of teams expressing interest, as more than half the teams in Major League Baseball could use a rotation upgrade.

Garza is a California native, and though he's pitched for four Major League teams — the Twins, Rays, Cubs and Rangers — he's never had the opportunity to pitch close to home. It's not clear whether that will be a factor in his decision, but plenty of West Coast teams will be looking for pitching help.

Expected Contract

Many expected Garza to be the top arm on this year's free agent market, and while some may still feel that's the case, the emergence of Tanaka and rebirth of Santana have given him some stiff competition. Garza earns points for consistency when healthy and his relative youth, both of which will be determining factors in his free agency this offseason.

He doesn't boast the durability that Edwin Jackson did when he signed his four-year contract with the Cubs, but teams won't need to worry about the tumultuous on-field results that have plagued Jackson when considering Garza. Jackson's $52MM contract is the floor for Garza in my mind. He should have little trouble surpassing it, though he and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports may have trouble finding a fifth guaranteed year thanks to the slow finish and recent injury history.

Ultimately, I think Garza will command a four-year, $64MM contract this offseason. Such a deal easily tops the four-year commitments attained by Jackson and Mark Buehrle in recent years, while still affording Garza the opportunity to sign another significant contract heading into his age-34 season in 2018. A vesting option for that fifth year is another possibility, as the biggest current issue with Garza is his durability, not his performance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top