Archives for October 2016

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLBTR Mailbag

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2016 at 8:49am CDT

Questions in last week’s MLBTR Mailbag focused on potential free agent/trade pursuits of the Mariners, Rockies and Rays while also highlighting a few names to keep an eye on when it comes to free agents out of the Korea Baseball Organization.

If you have a question on the upcoming offseason, free agency, the World Series, our arbitration projections, our Offseason Outlook series or anything else and would like to hear MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but we’ll try to diversify the teams/subject matter as best we can. If you miss out on having your question answered, remember that you can always ask again during one of our three weekly live chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesdays at 6:30pm with Jason Martinez and/or Thursdays at 2pm with Jeff Todd. Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them in at any time.

World Series Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Miller, Chapman

By charliewilmoth | October 23, 2016 at 10:21pm CDT

The Cubs’ recent path to the World Series is “a case study in how to bring a team or a business back to life,” Alex Rodriguez (yes, that Alex Rodriguez) writes for FOX Sports. A-Rod praises top Cubs exec Theo Epstein, with whom he negotiated prior to the 2004 season, when the Red Sox were trying to bring Rodriguez to Boston in a pair of mega-deals that would have sent Jon Lester and Manny Ramirez to Texas, while also acquiring Magglio Ordonez and Brandon McCarthy from the White Sox for Nomar Garciaparra. The deal, in which Rodriguez was to take a $40MM pay cut, was vetoed by the players’ union. Rodriguez, of course, headed to the Yankees, but the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series anyway. “We were three 20-somethings convinced we were about to turn baseball upside down together,” Rodriguez writes, referring to himself, Epstein and Jed Hoyer. “Though I never got a chance to work with Theo, I knew then that he was going to be a force.” Here are more quick notes on the Fall Classic.

There’s little mystery to the Cubs’ success, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs writes. The reasons for the accomplishments of other recent World Series teams, like the Royals and Giants, have been a bit harder to explain, but the Cubs are simply “a super-good club, made up of super-good players.” Even if the Cubs lose this time around, they’re extremely well positioned to make a run at another World Series or three in the near future — they have Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras under control for four or more seasons.
Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman both began the season as members of the Yankees, but they’ll finish it opposing one another in the World Series, MLB.com’s Richard Justice writes. Miller has been dominant thus far this postseason for the Indians, with 21 strikeouts in 11 2/3 scoreless innings thus far. Chapman has allowed three runs over eight frames for the Cubs. Both are obviously standouts as MLB pitchers go, but as Justice notes, this World Series could turn either or both into household names.

Nationals Place Aaron Barrett On Outright Waivers

By charliewilmoth | October 23, 2016 at 8:24pm CDT

The Nationals have placed righty Aaron Barrett on outright waivers, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. Barrett would have been eligible for arbitration this offseason as a Super Two (and was projected to make a mere $700K), but the Nats have elected not to take him through that process.

The 28-year-old Barrett had Tommy John surgery late in the 2015 campaign. Late this season, while attempting a comeback from the injury, he fractured his elbow, requiring another surgery. Janes notes that Barrett is set to begin throwing again in a few weeks, but the Nationals’ decision to place him on outright waivers indicates that they’re not confident he’s likely to be a significant contributor next season. They might, however, be hoping to bring him back next season on a minor league deal.

Prior to Barrett’s recent run of bad luck, he was a key part of the Nationals’ bullpens in 2014 and 2015, pitching to a 3.47 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 70 innings over those two seasons. At his best, he boasted a mid-90s fastball and effective slider, although it’s unclear what his stuff might be like once he returns.

Indians Notes: Bauer, Salazar, Kipnis

By charliewilmoth | October 23, 2016 at 7:47pm CDT

Here’s the latest from Cleveland on the World Series, courtesy of reporters including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian:

Unsurprisingly, Corey Kluber will start Game 1 on Tuesday, Indians manager Terry Francona says. Currently, Trevor Bauer is set to start Game 2 and Josh Tomlin Game 3, but those slots are less certain, since Bauer is still dealing with a lacerated pinkie and he would not be able to remain in the game if he starts bleeding. If the Indians believe that would be less likely with more rest, his spot in the rotation could be pushed back.
Ryan Merritt is a possibility to pitch Game 4, but Danny Salazar pitched in a simulated game today and could also be an option to start that game. Salazar has been out since September 9 with a forearm injury. There’s also the possibility Kluber could pitch Game 4 on short rest. “It’s going to be TBA after Game 3 probably the rest of the way, for obvious reasons,” says Francona. “It’s not that difficult to figure out. Kluber’s certainly an option. It could be a lot of things, so we’re just kind of keeping it open.” A fully healthy Salazar would obviously provide a boost for the Indians, but it’s unclear how crisp he’ll be after so much time off. As Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal writes, Salazar still isn’t throwing his curveball. If he can’t start, he could be an option for the Indians coming out of the bullpen.
Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis has a low ankle sprain he suffered while celebrating Cleveland’s pennant win over Toronto, but Francona says Kipnis should be ready to play, as Bastian tweets. Kipnis participated in fielding drills today and faced Salazar in the simulated game.

Poll: Should The Brewers Tender Chris Carter?

By charliewilmoth | October 23, 2016 at 6:19pm CDT

That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?

Well, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.

As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.

In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.

It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.

Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.

Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.

Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox, D-backs, Twins In Mix For Amiel Sawdaye

By Connor Byrne | October 23, 2016 at 4:40pm CDT

Red Sox vice president of international and amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye is weighing whether to accept Boston’s general manager job or take the Diamondbacks’ assistant GM position, Peter Gammons reports (Twitter link). It’s also possible Sawdaye could join the Twins’ front office, a source told Gammons.

The Red Sox have been looking for a GM since Mike Hazen departed last week to lead the Diamondbacks’ baseball department. Boston’s president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, revealed Monday that he wants to replace Hazen from within, and based on Gammons’ report, it seems Sawdaye is his top choice. In the event Sawdaye follows Hazen to Arizona or heads to Minnesota, Red Sox assistant GM Brian O’Halloran, senior vice president of player personnel Allard Baird, pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum or VP of international scouting Eddie Romero could end up as Hazen’s successor if the team makes an internal hire. Senior VP of baseball operations Frank Wren has more experience as a GM than any of Dombrowski’s underlings, but he’s content in his current role.

It’s unclear which title Sawdaye would have with the Twins, who named Indians assistant GM Derek Falvey their executive vice president and chief baseball officer earlier this month. When the Twins hired Falvey, who will officially take over after the World Series, a report indicated he would be able to name a GM. Given that the Twins are in contention for Sawdaye, it’s reasonable to suggest he could become Falvey’s second-in-command.

Quick Hits: Francona, Maddon, BoSox, A’s, Tigers

By Connor Byrne | October 23, 2016 at 3:25pm CDT

The decision the Red Sox made in 2003 to hire Terry Francona over Joe Maddon as their manager has worked out for all parties, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. The Red Sox won two World Series and 574 regular-season games under Francona from 2004-11, while Maddon ended up with the Rays a couple years later and established himself as one of baseball’s top managers. Now, after several seasons of squaring off as AL East rivals, Francona (Indians) and Maddon (Cubs) will meet in this year’s World Series. On losing out to Francona for the Boston job, Maddon told Silverman, “I thought Tito was more prepared for that moment than I was at that time and I’ll stand by that. I got the right job at the right time with Tampa Bay. Tito was the right guy back then. But the experience for me was fantastic moving forward.” Theo Epstein, the executive who picked Francona in Boston, also hired Maddon in Chicago. Epstein explained his call to pass on Maddon 13 years ago, telling Silverman, “In the end, we loved him but we thought taking over a veteran team in a big market, there would have been some risk involved because he’s so unique. I think it worked out best for both sides. He could go to Tampa, which was really like a petri dish at that time, he could try things out, grow into it with young players and obviously blossom.”

Blue Jays Had Pre-Deadline Interest In Carlos Beltran

By Connor Byrne | October 23, 2016 at 12:26pm CDT

The Blue Jays were among the teams that chased then-Yankees designated hitter/right fielder Carlos Beltran prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this month.

“We saw Beltran over the years with the Yankees, and what a great hitter he was,” said Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. “A clutch-type perfomer.”

Deals between the AL East rival Yankees and Blue Jays have been rare, with Brendan Kuty of NJ.com noting that the teams’ most recent trade came when New York acquired Raul Mondesi in 2002. Beltran ended up going to the Rangers, who sent three right-handed pitching prospects (including 2015 fourth overall pick Dillon Tate) to the Yankees for the 39-year-old. Along with the Rangers and Blue Jays, at least three other AL playoff contenders – the Astros, Indians and Red Sox – pursued Beltran in advance of the deadline.

Even though their summer interest in Beltran didn’t lead to a deal, the Blue Jays still went on to vanquish him and the Rangers in a three-game ALDS sweep. Toronto, which then fell to Cleveland in the ALCS, is now facing an offseason in which three of its most important offensive cogs could depart as free agents. With Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders all potentially on the way out, the Jays circling back to Beltran as an affordable stopgap in free agency seems possible.

Considering his age and declining defense, Beltran’s a strong bet to remain in the AL as primarily a DH, where Encarnacion, Bautista and Saunders saw action in a combined 121 games this year. Beltran won’t come cheap after slashing .295/.337/.513 with 29 home runs in 593 plate appearances in 2016, but he should appeal to offense-needy teams on a short-term contract.

Chris Antonetti, Brian Cashman On Andrew Miller Trade

By Connor Byrne | October 23, 2016 at 10:29am CDT

With the American League champion Indians set for their first World Series appearance since 1997, team president Chris Antonetti revisited the crucial July trade that brought ace reliever Andrew Miller to Cleveland.

On acquiring the left-hander from the Yankees, Antonetti told Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com, “There is excitement about coming to terms for a guy that we targeted. At the same time, there was a pit in your stomach because we knew we were trading really good players. That is a hard thing for us to do. There is that dichotomy.”

The Indians faced serious leaguewide competition for Miller’s services, but they ultimately landed him after agreeing to part with a package that included outfielder Clint Frazier and southpaw Justus Sheffield – two highly regarded prospects. The negotiation for Miller was “excruciating,” said Antonetti, who engaged in 100-plus conversations and texts with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman from late June until the deal went through July 31.

“We felt a unique circumstance with Andrew; with all the elements he brought to the table, it was worth paying a very steep price,” commented Antonetti.

Miller has been worth the price so far, having carried his regular-season brilliance into the playoffs. The 31-year-old won ALCS MVP honors after throwing seven shutout innings and striking out 14 without issuing a walk in the Indians’ five-game elimination of the Blue Jays. Previously, in Cleveland’s three-game ALDS sweep over Boston, Miller tossed four scoreless frames with seven strikeouts and two walks. Miller has recorded between four and eight outs in each of his six playoff appearances this year, which is what the Indians had in mind when they were attempting to acquire him.

“We envisioned using him like we are,” revealed manager Terry Francona, who discussed how the team would deploy Miller with Antonetti and pitching coach Mickey Callaway prior to the trade.

Before Cashman dealt Miller, he had to convince Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner that it was the right path to take. With the Yankees hanging around the wild-card race, Steinbrenner wasn’t on board with moving Miller after the club had already dealt closer Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs. That changed when the Rays swept the Yankees in a late-July series leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, paving the way for the end of Miller’s year-plus run in the Bronx.

“Once the medicals cleared for both sides, then it was a pit in my stomach that I have the most difficult job of all in calling Andrew Miller,” said Cashman. “Andrew, he didn’t want to go anywhere. He loved playing here. Andrew was everything you want. Unfortunately, we had a lot of areas that need to be addressed, so unfortunately he was part of that type of solution.”

Given that Miller is under team control through 2018 at a reasonable $9MM per year, the Yankees “needed two twin firstborns” to deal him, Cashman quipped. For his part, Antonetti told Marchand he’s “confident that the guys we traded away will make a big impact with the Yankees.”

That may indeed prove true for Frazier and Sheffield. In the meantime, Miller has made an enormous mark on the Indians, who are four wins away from their first championship since 1948. Miller and the Tribe will face the Cubs and his former New York bullpen mate, Chapman, in a battle of franchises that own the majors’ longest championship droughts. If the Cubs are going to break through for the first time since 1908, their best bet is to jump on the Indians early in games and avoid Miller, the 2016 postseason’s most dominant force.

Heyman’s Latest: Schwarber, Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | October 23, 2016 at 8:38am CDT

There’s a “very real” possibility slugger Kyle Schwarber will be able to contribute for the World Series-bound Cubs in their matchup with the Indians, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Schwarber has been out since early April after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee, but, as the Cubs were in the midst of defeating the Dodgers to clinch their first pennant since 1945, the 23-year-old returned to action Saturday in the Arizona Fall League. Schwarber accrued four plate appearances and said afterward that “it was overall a really great day for me” (via Jack Thompson of the Chicago Tribune). If Schwarber does return for the World Series, the player whom Cubs baseball president of baseball operations Theo Epstein deems a “special talent” could factor in as a DH and pinch-hitter.

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