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NL East Notes: Phillies, Moose, Marlins, Alfaro, Braves, Brantley

By Connor Byrne | February 9, 2019 at 10:33pm CDT

The Phillies have reportedly shown interest in third baseman Mike Moustakas, who could be a fallback signing if they don’t win the battle for fellow free agent Manny Machado. But now, unless the Phillies miss out on both Machado and free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, the chances of Moustakas joining the team appear especially slim. If Philadelphia signs Harper over Machado, “it seems unlikely” the club would also add Moustakas, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Rather, the Phillies would probably be content with a revamped lineup that would include Harper and other high-profile newcomers in J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, Zolecki posits. In that scenario, Maikel Franco – who, at least offensively, was similar to Moustakas in 2018 – and Scott Kingery would be their top options at third base.

Here’s the latest on a pair of Philly’s division rivals:

  • The Marlins intend to strengthen their bullpen from outside in the coming days, president of baseball operations Michael Hill told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and other reporters Saturday.  “Hopefully, we’ll get that taken care of before pitchers take the field [on Wednesday],” said Hill, who wants a “veteran bullpen piece to help with” the unit’s younger pitchers. There’s still a good amount of familiar free-agent relievers the low-payroll Marlins should be able to afford as they seek to bolster a relief unit that was among the majors’ worst in 2018.
  • Outfielder Michael Brantley accepted Houston’s two-year, $32MM back in December, but the Braves came “very close” to matching the Astros’ offer, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. A month after losing out on Brantley, the Braves brought back the less exciting Nick Markakis on a one-year, $6MM deal to fill their vacancy in the corner outfield. For the second straight year, Markakis, Ender Inciarte and young superstar Ronald Acuna are in line to accrue the lion’s share of playing time among Braves outfielders.
  • As you’d expect, the Marlins are high on catcher Jorge Alfaro, one of the players they acquired from Philadelphia in Thursday’s blockbuster trade centering on Realmuto. Manager Don Mattingly raved about Alfaro’s arm Saturday, saying that “J.T. threw great” but “[Alfaro] throws better,” via Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Indeed, Realmuto finished second only to Alfaro in arm strength in 2018, according to Statcast, and the latter also beat out the former (and nearly every other catcher in the sport) as an overall defender, per Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. But whether Alfaro succeeds offensively will help determine how well the Marlins did in this trade, of course, and Spencer points out the 25-year-old is no sure thing at the plate. Alfaro produced respectable bottom-line results from 2017-18, a 491-plate appearance span in which he slashed .275/.332/.432 (103 wRC+). At the same time, though, he struck out in nearly 35 percent percent of trips while walking just 4.3 of the time. Mattingly acknowledged that Alfaro has work to do in that area, but the skipper noted he has an “efficient” swing and improvement’s “just a matter of approach and thinking.”
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Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade

By Ty Bradley | February 9, 2019 at 10:47am CDT

Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.

We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.

The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.

Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.

From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”

Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.

In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.

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MLBTR Poll: NL East Hierarchy

By George Miller | February 7, 2019 at 9:47pm CDT

In an offseason that will be remembered for teams’ reluctance to shell out big money for the Hot Stove season’s biggest names, the NL East has been an outlier. Three of its teams–the Mets, Nationals, and Phillies–have gone against the grain, employing aggressive strategies and eyeing a 2019 division title in what appears to be an open field. Certainly, the division projects to be one of baseball’s most competitive in the upcoming season, featuring four teams that have at least a fighter’s chance at seizing the NL East crown. After the Nationals’ dominating run atop the division in recent years, the club took a step back in 2018, all while the Braves and Phillies enjoyed seemingly premature success. And with the Nationals preparing to bid goodbye to their franchise player, there is no clear favorite to win the division as spring training draws near. Which team’s slate of offseason moves will lead to a postseason appearance?

The Mets turned heads with their blockbuster December trade to acquire Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano from the rebuilding Mariners, loudly marking the arrival a new front office regime headed by general manager Brodie Van Wagenen. Van Wagenen has placed his club firmly in “win-now” territory, supplementing the Diaz deal with signings of solid regulars Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie, to say nothing of his efforts to shore up a lackluster bullpen with the additions of Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, and Luis Avilan. Van Wagenen has not been shy about making trades, swinging three separate deals that brought Keon Broxton and J.D. Davis to New York and shipped backstop Kevin Plawecki to Cleveland. The club was also rumored to have offered $64MM to Yasmani Grandal–who ultimately declined and signed with the Brewers–and has been linked to Gio Gonzalez to round out an already-stellar starting rotation. The Mets will also count on a contribution from first baseman Peter Alonso, who made a name for himself with his display of power in 2018, slugging 36 total home runs across two levels of the minors. It remains to be seen whether the revamped roster will be enough to carry the Mets into October, but the team’s aggressiveness this winter has certainly put them in position to compete.

Though it’s entirely possible that Bryce Harper has played his last game in a Nationals uniform, the team still appears well-equipped for another run at the postseason in 2019. Owner Ted Lerner, for his part, has exhibited a willingness to invest heavily in the current iteration of the Nationals: the team has already doled out the offseason’s single largest contract of the offseason, adding standout lefty Patrick Corbin to a pitching staff that already features Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Furthermore, the club was reported to have offered Bryce Harper at least $300MM to remain in the nation’s capital for the next decade. All that not to mention the additions of Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Barraclough, Matt Adams, and Anibal Sanchez. Dozier, who was hamstrung by injuries in 2018, will look to return to form as a right-handed power bat who can play up the middle. Suzuki will work in tandem with trade acquisition Yan Gomes to stabilize the catcher position, where the Nationals sorely lacked for production in 2018. Sanchez, who enjoyed a career renaissance last season, will slot in behind the big names as the fourth starter. Even if Harper decides to play out his prime elsewhere, the Nats still feel comfortable with their outfield mix moving forward. Standout rookie Juan Soto will be joined by highly-touted prospect Victor Robles and veteran Adam Eaton, who has posted an impressive .816 OPS in his injury-shortened Nationals career.

With today’s acquisition of catcher J.T. Realmuto, one of the offseason’s most sought-after prizes, the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the conversation atop the NL East. Entering the offseason, the circumstances were clear: Phillies ownership was sitting on heaps of money, fully preparing to invest it into one, if not both, of the top available players. While Phillies fans have thus far had to settle for the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, David Robertson, and now Realmuto, both Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, and Philadelphia remains in play for the two megastars. Even without one of Harper or Machado, the Phillies can’t be discounted in the race to the top of the NL East. Though the team finished with an unimpressive 80 wins in 2018, Philadelphia kept pace with the Nationals and Braves for much of the season, until a late-season collapse took them out of the race. Gabe Kapler and his staff will lean on leadership from veterans Realmuto, McCutchen, and Robertson in an effort to prevent the club from running out of gas again in 2019. Considering the possibility that Philly’s biggest moves have yet to come, Phillies leadership must feel optimistic about their team’s chances moving forward.

The 2018 division winners, the Braves, have largely remained quiet in the winter. With their rebuild taking off seemingly a year ahead of schedule, team leadership, sitting on a farm system brimming with potential impact players, may be hesitant to commit fully to a win-now mentality. After inking 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal early in the offseason, the team’s biggest move has been to bring back 2018 All-Star Nick Markakis on a one-year contract. Many onlookers have expressed frustration at the team’s hesitance to pursue big names, but Atlanta evidently feels content to bank on steps forward from its young core, including Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson, as well as contributions from its gaggle of young pitchers–Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, and Kyle Wright, among others. Meanwhile, in Miami, expectations are low. The trade of J.T. Realmuto is the latest in a series of trades that have gutted the major-league roster over the last two years. Other casualties of the offseason include Derek Dietrich, Nick Wittgren, and the aforementioned Barraclough. And while the club has made canny signings of Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker, the focus in Miami is firmly on the future. Although a growing crop of farmhands may make the Marlins a real threat in the 2020s, fans should prepare for another season in the cellar of the NL East.

(poll link for mobile users)

 

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Minor MLB Transactions: 2/3/19

By Ty Bradley | February 3, 2019 at 11:27pm CDT

Rounding up the latest in minor moves from around the game . . .

  • The Braves have reportedly agreed to a minor league deal with veteran reliever Ben Rowen. Rowen, an extreme submariner, is the owner of a rare high-grounder, low-walk profile, and has turned in a number of impressive seasons at the AAA level. The 30-year-old’s last big-league appearance came in 2016 with Milwaukee, for whom he made three late-season appearances. The Virginia Tech-product debut also threw 8 innings for the 2014 Rangers, but has mostly made his way around the International and Pacific Coast Leagues over the last six seasons. In 245 career innings at the Triple-A level, the 6’4 righty has pitched to a stellar 3.08 ERA, allowing just 0.44 homers per nine. He figures to be a candidate for the Peter Moylan role at the front end of the Atlanta bullpen, and should make a nifty righty specialist if the club can spare the roster space.
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J.T. Realmuto Talks In “Advanced Stages”

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2019 at 2:10pm CDT

The Marlins’ trade talks centering around J.T. Realmuto have reached “advanced stages,” reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who lists four possible suitors still in the mix: the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves.

While the report seems to advance things from previous levels, it should be pointed out that this isn’t the first time talks have reportedly gained momentum. In fact, that exact terminology (“gaining momentum”) was used last Friday with no deal yet coming to fruition. Earlier this week, the Reds were said to have “made progress” on a Realmuto swap before those reports were walked back, and it’s now been three weeks to the day since the Marlins were first reported to be in “substantive” trade talks regarding Realmuto.

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, it seems clear that there has at times been a concerted effort to convey the idea that talks have been more productive than is the case in actuality. Perhaps that’s the Miami organization trying to pressure other clubs to inch their offers toward the reported sky-high asking price, but with all due respect to those involved, it’s become difficult to determine just how close a deal is to reality. For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers aren’t even active in their pursuit at the moment but adds the Rays to the list of current pursuers; Frisaro’s report, in contradictory fashion, says the Rays and Astros look to have largely bowed out of the race while listing the Dodgers as a factor. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres are more involved than the Dodgers.

The greatest cause for optimism regarding a terminus in this exhausting saga could be the latest column from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required), wherein he writes that there are “signs that [the asking price] has come down in recent days.” The Padres have reportedly sought an extension with Realmuto as a contingency in any trade, though Lin now writes that the organization remains confident it could sell the catcher on its promising future even though the Marlins have denied interested teams a window to negotiate a long-term deal.

Over the past week, the Padres and Reds have been the two teams most strongly linked to Realmuto, with Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay oft rumored to be involved to varying extents. The continually conflicting depiction of the extent to which each is (or isn’t) interested makes individual updates perhaps worth taking with a grain of salt. However, the pronounced increase of rumors surrounding Realmuto does seem to lend credence to the notion that the Marlins have upped their efforts to find a palatable deal.

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Reds Have “Made Progress” In Realmuto Trade Talks; Other Clubs Still Involved

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2019 at 4:30pm CDT

4:30pm: While the Reds’ interest in Realmuto is genuine, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, the organization also doesn’t view him as a necessity and isn’t willing to overpay in order to acquire the All-Star.

Jan. 29, 9:13am: Whatever progress was made has clearly not yet resulted in a deal. It’s not just that the Marlins want to wait to see if other clubs will increase their offers. Rather, per Heyman (via Twitter), the Fish and the Reds are “still apart on prospects,” with other clubs also still engaged with the Miami organization.

Jan. 28, 3:59pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that there are “substantive” talks ongoing between Cincinnati and Miami, adding that India is indeed a player being discussed as part of the return.

The Marlins, though, are still talking with the Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, and are seeking the best package of two to four players they can obtain.

3:03pm: Third base prospect Jonathan India, whom the Reds selected with the No. 5 overall pick in this past summer’s draft, is also of interest to the Marlins, Heyman tweets. The former Florida Gators star hit a combined .240/.380/.433 in 184 plate appearances this past season in his pro debut — though he struggled in the Class-A Midwest League a bit after tearing through the Rookie-level Appalachian League with a .995 OPS in 14 games (the type of production one would expect from a fairly polished college bat in Rookie ball).

2:37pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their effort to pry catcher J.T. Realmuto away from the Marlins, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Prospects Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell and Hunter Greene are all of interest to Miami, Heyman notes, which isn’t exactly a surprise given that they’re the organization’s consensus top three farmhands. Cincinnati is reluctant to part with any of that trio, but the two sides still appear to be gaining steam. Tucker Barnhart could be part of the package going back to Miami if a deal is reached, Heyman adds.

Whether it’s with the Reds or another club, it does seem as though the Marlins are at long last moving toward a deal. SiriusXM’s Craig Mish tweets that the Padres have been making a “late charge” for Realmuto and suggests that the “final chapter of the saga is upon us.” Heyman tweets that the Padres and Dodgers have been among the most aggressive teams in pursuit of Realmuto in recent days, prior to Cincinnati’s increased efforts. The Braves, according to Mish, are also in the mix though perhaps not to the same extent as the other three.

If the Reds are to ultimately strike a deal, it’ll be the latest move in an aggressive offseason of trades that has dramatically altered the complexion of the club. Cincinnati has already acquired (and extended) Sonny Gray in a deal with the Yankees, and the Reds have also picked up Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in another pair of deals.

While catcher isn’t a clear-cut area of need given that Barnhart is a solid option behind the dish himself, Realmuto has emerged as arguably the game’s best all-around catcher over the past couple of seasons, meaning he’d still be an upgrade for the Reds if Barnhart is indeed shipped to Miami as part of the trade. It should be noted, too, that Barnhart took a step back in several key areas last year; the 28-year-old had a career-high strikeout rate (18.4%) and saw his OBP and average dip as his batting average on balls in play regressed closer to his career norm.

Even defensively, the well-regarded Barnhart saw his caught-stealing rate plummet from a league-leading 44 percent in 2017 to a below-average 24 percent in 2018. In spite of his 2017 Gold Glove Award and strong reputation, Barnhart has never graded out as a plus pitch-framer, but he posted the worst marks of his career in that regard in 2018 as well (per Baseball Prospectus).

All of that said, Barnhart is still a .257/.331/.374 hitter across the past four seasons, and while the resulting 88 OPS+ is below average relative to the rest of the league, it checks in a bit better than that of the average catcher over that same span. He’d be a better replacement for Realmuto than the majority of the free-agent options remaining on the market, and with $10.25MM guaranteed to him over the next three seasons (plus a 2022 option), he’d be plenty affordable even for the low-spending Marlins. He’d also give Miami another potential trade piece should the team look to flip him quickly this offseason or perhaps this summer at the deadline.

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Braves Sign Rafael Ortega To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 28, 2019 at 5:26pm CDT

The Braves announced a series of non-roster invitees to Major League Spring Training today, with outfielder Rafael Ortega representing a yet-unreported addition to the organization. Other previously reported minor league signings confirmed by the Braves today include outfielder Ryan LaMarre (link), infielder Andres Blanco (link) and infielder Pedro Florimon (link).

Ortega, 27, appeared in 41 games with the Marlins in 2018 and hit .233/.287/.271 with three doubles, a triple and five steals in 143 plate appearances. He’s seen action in parts of three MLB seasons (2012 with the Rockies and 2016 with the Halos serving as the other two) and is a career .236/.291/.286 hitter in 352 Major League trips to the plate. While he spent his time in Miami playing both outfield corners, the bulk of Ortega’s professional experience in the outfield has come in center.

Ortega will give the Braves some left-handed-hitting outfield depth and seems likely to be ticketed for Triple-A Gwinnett early in the year. He’s a lifetime .299/.368/.423 hitter in 1666 Triple-A PAs (spread out over the course of five seasons) and has gone 71-for-93 (76 percent) in stolen-base attempts at that level. His big league experience is obviously limited, but he’s drawn average or better defensive ratings on the whole in 707 innings.

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NL East Notes: Nola, Markakis, Marlins, Braves, Nats

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 12:18pm CDT

The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.

A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.

More from the division…

  • Prior to re-signing with the Braves on a one-year contract, Nick Markakis had interest from the division-rival Marlins, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s one of the few times this offseason that the Miami organization has been connected to virtually any sort of free agent, as the vast majority of their offseason has centered around the apparently interminable J.T. Realmuto trade saga. Heyman notes that Miami is still seeking a left-handed bat — likely an outfielder — though it’s likely that they prefer to see what the return for Realmuto brings before committing any spots to veteran free agents.
  • Speaking of the great Realmuto staredown, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes in his latest Inbox column that the Marlins are still insisting that the Braves include one of their current position players in a trade for the All-Star catcher. So long as that continues to be the price, Bowman writes, it’s unlikely that the Braves will cave into the Marlins’ demands. Bowman also projects that the Braves are about $15MM away from ownership’s top-approved budget level, noting that the team would like to preserve some of those resources for in-season additions when the need arises.
  • In another MLB.com Inbox, Jamal Collier writes that the Nationals are still in the mix for Bryce Harper and takes his best guess at how the organization will ultimately act with regards to Harper and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Collier also adds that it’s unlikely the Nationals add another reliever on a market-value contract, adding the caveat that the Nats might make a very late addition to the relief corps if a quality reliever’s market collapses and renders his price point well south of expected levels. In a separate piece, Collier opines that a left-handed reliever would be ideal for the Nats, who tend to use Sean Doolittle in save situations and otherwise have only Matt Grace and Sammy Solis (who struggled through an awful down season in ’18) as the other two options on the 40-man roster. Non-roster invitee Vidal Nuno will also be given a chance, but it’s possible the market does yield an unexpectedly affordable left-handed upgrade, given the bulk of relievers who’ve yet to sign.
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Braves’ GM Anthopoulos On Kimbrel, Trade Market

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 8:53am CDT

The Braves’ offseason began with a bang, signing both Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann early on, but there’s been little activity out of Atlanta since that time. The club did strike up a surprisingly affordable deal to bring Nick Markakis back for at least a fifth season (and possibly a sixth) earlier this week, filling an obvious hole in right field.

Many fans, however, were hoping to see a bigger splash to fill that vacancy — or at least some type of splash following the aggressive November deal that brought Donaldson into the fold. General manager Alex Anthopoulos’ comments about the financial flexibility that Markakis’ contract affords the club only fueled the fire for the Braves’ fanbase and their hopes for another marquee pickup, with many pining for a Craig Kimbrel reunion. However, Anthopoulos’ comments in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM at the very least downplay that possibility — if not almost entirely rule it out (Twitter links, with audio):

“He makes everybody a lot better,” said Anthopoulos of Kimbrel. “He’s one of the best closers of all time. I did come out early in the offseason and, not speaking specifically about him, but [said] our payroll, our model, I don’t know that us spending big, elite dollars on a reliever — length, the term and all that — I don’t know that that model works for us.”

Kimbrel entered the offseason reportedly seeking a massive payday north of $100MM, and while reports since that time have indicated that goal has dropped a bit, the latest update on his asking price suggested the $86MM and $80MM contracts of Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen as targets (although that was a month ago). A closer with Kimbrel’s track record, understandably, is aiming exceptionally high, and even if his price drops a bit further, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his camp eye a deal that tops Wade Davis’ $17.33MM average annual value record for a reliever.

Wherever Kimbrel’s contract eventually lands, it seems reasonable to think that he’ll command the “big, elite dollars” to which Anthopoulos expressed an aversion. If that proves to be the case, Anthopoulos suggested that he’s happy with the end-game options the Braves already have in house while acknowledging that he’s still considering veteran additions.

“From a bullpen standpoint, A.J. Minter, Arodys Vizcaino did a nice, solid job for us,” said Anthopoulos. “…Hopefully, a young guy like Minter can take one more step. I think having a healthy Darren O’Day is going to be big, and then some of the other young kids that really took a step and had a nice year have a chance to continue to contribute. But, there’s no doubt if we can get more talent, more experience — especially at the end of the game — it’s going to slot everybody down. That’s definitely something we’ve explored, both in trade and free agency.”

The trade market — specifically, Atlanta’s lack of activity on that front — has been another potential source of consternation among fans. The Braves organization has famously built up a wealth of premium prospects and a deep reserve of secondary (but still high-quality) minor leaguers that has made their farm system one of baseball’s best. Clearly, there isn’t room for all of the stockpiled talent to claim regular roles with the big league club, and many would like to see the team cash in some of those farmhands for proven MLB talent. That, said Anthopoulos, is something the team has explored at length, though there’s been no common ground reached with teams shopping intriguing talent.

The GM plainly stated that his club was “definitely engaged” with the Mariners with regard to James Paxton, though the lefty eventually went to the Yankees in a package headlined by MLB-ready top prospect Justus Sheffield and another high-quality, near-MLB arm in Erik Swanson. Atlanta also spoke to the Mariners about closer Edwin Diaz before Seattle sent him and half of Robinson Cano’s remaining contract to the Mets in exchange for a package led by this past draft’s No. 6 overall pick, Jarred Kelenic.

“At the end of the day, we had the ability to say ’yes,'” said Anthopoulos of those talks. “We got a price on players like that. We’re definitely going to be ’in’ on those guys. … I think, at the end of the day, we really feel strongly about the talent that we have. We put some good young players on the table in deals. I think maybe where we hit a bit of a snag in some of these things is just the volume — and that’s where we do pause, and we kind of pump the brakes a little bit.”

Though the inability to reach an agreement is surely frustrating for the Braves’ front office as well, Anthopoulos indicated that it’s often a relief to look back on some deals that ultimately weren’t made. He noted that he was most frequently asked about both Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last offseason and is thankful not to have budged on either player and also “pretty happy” to have passed on some trade-deadline offers with which they were presented. (Of course, there are undoubtedly prospects whose stock has dropped that the Braves may, with the benefit of hindsight, been able to have let go without significant consequence.)

Ultimately, it sounds as though the Braves will continue to explore the trade market — they’re still oft-connected to J.T. Realmuto, for instance, and there are teams with relief pitchers available — but at the very least, it seems Atlanta fans should temper their expectations with regard to a Kimbrel reunion, which is a disheartening reality not only for them but also for Kimbrel’s camp. Kimbrel still seems destined for a sizable payday, but Anthopoulos is the second baseball ops leader in the past two weeks to suggest that paying Kimbrel at a premium rate likely isn’t in the cards; Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made similar comments recently, all of which only further clouds the market for the offseason’s top free-agent reliever.

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Atlanta Braves Craig Kimbrel Edwin Diaz James Paxton

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NL Notes: Realmuto, Dodgers, Braves, Markakis, Cardinals, Gray

By Steve Adams | January 22, 2019 at 9:40pm CDT

The Dodgers’ recent acquisition of Russell Martin hasn’t taken them out of the running for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. To the contrary, the Dodgers are still discussing a potential Realmuto deal with Miami, and catching prospect Keibert Ruiz is among the names Miami is targeting. Although he opened the 2018 season at just 19 years of age, Ruiz spent the entire season with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate. Ruiz was nearly five years younger than the average player in the Double-A Texas League, but the switch-hitter nevertheless held his own, hitting .268/.328/.401 with a dozen home runs and 14 doubles in a career-high 415 plate appearances. Ruiz also demonstrated preternatural bat-to-ball abilities, striking out in only eight percent of his plate appearances. He currently ranks 36th among all MLB prospects on the latest rankings from Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs.

Here’s more from the Senior Circuit…

  • Nick Markakis told reporters on today’s conference call that he had larger offers in both overall value and in guaranteed length but felt strongly about returning to the Braves for a fifth season (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Markakis re-upped with Atlanta on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $6MM — a $4MM salary in 2019 and a $2MM buyout on a $6MM option for the 2020 season — and general manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the unexpectedly affordable rate could help the Braves accomplish some other offseason goals. “Nick coming back on these terms allow us to pursue other things, have financial flexibility to improve the club in other ways,” said Anthopoulos. (David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the team’s next move may not occur until Spring Training is underway, though.) Burns notes that Markakis won’t suit up for all 162 games next season, as he did in 2018, which the club believes will help the 35-year-old to stay fresher and to avoid a second-half slump.
  • Signing Paul Goldschmidt to an extension could be a bit more complicated for the Cardinals than many would think, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic explores in his latest column (subscription required). Goldschmidt has already signed what turned out to be one exceptionally team-friendly extension, and as the former union representative for the D-backs, he takes particular umbrage with team owners’ increasing reluctance toward spending in free agency. Saxon wonders whether Goldschmidt will feel obligated to push for a maximum-value contract given his views, though he emphasizes that Goldschmidt himself has declined to discuss his feelings about a new contract. And, as Saxon further writes, there are no indications that talks between the Cardinals and Goldschmidt’s agent, Casey Close, have begun.
  • Sonny Gray spoke with reporters about his decision to sign an extension with the Reds before ever suiting up for a single game with the team (link via Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Gray noted that his relationship with newly hired pitching coach Derek Johnson, who previously was his pitching coach at Vanderbilt, played a significant role in the decision. The Reds also have one of Gray’s college battery-mates, Curt Casali, on the roster as a backup to starter Tucker Barnhart. Gray also explained that his late father was a Reds fan, adding that the first MLB game he ever attended as a child was at Great American Ball Park. As to what prompted his struggles in New York this past season, Gray was uncertain but said he feels stronger having endured the struggles. “I honestly think you can go through some hardships at times and come out the other end better than you ever were,” Gray said.
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Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals J.T. Realmuto Keibert Ruiz Nick Markakis Paul Goldschmidt Sonny Gray

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