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Two Cubs Employees Test Positive For COVID-19

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Two unnamed Cubs gameday employees have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, according to a report from the Chicago Sun-Times. One of those employees is recovering at home; the other is receiving hospital treatment, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago.

The two staff members tested positive on March 23 and 24, just more than two weeks after attending a staff training session at Wrigley Field on March 8. That said, team spokesman Julian Green told Wittenmyer that “there’s nothing definitive to suggest [the] training may have contributed.” Still, the organization would rather respond with profound caution and is doing its part to extend support to those employees.

For what it’s worth, the Cubs played their final Spring Training games on March 10 and 11. There’s been no word yet as to whether the Cubs will implement further testing for staff members who would have been in close contact with the two employees at the aforementioned training session. But that seems like a sensible precaution, given that the CDC estimates the incubation period for the coronavirus is somewhere between 2 and 14 days after exposure.

Transaction Retrospection: Jose Quintana/Eloy Jimenez Trade

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Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of Eloy Jiménez’s MLB debut. With that in mind, it’s an interesting time to look back at the blockbuster crosstown deal that brought the 23-year-old slugger to the South Side.

Jiménez wasn’t the headlining name of that July 2017 swap. That was José Quintana, with good reason. The southpaw had emerged as one of the game’s most consistent, reliable starters. True, he always played second fiddle to Chris Sale, but he was perhaps the game’s preeminent #2. Over the three-plus seasons preceding the deal, Quintana combined for a 3.47 ERA/3.31 FIP with no injury history to speak of. Equally as appealing, the hurler was controlled at well below market rates through 2020 thanks to an early-career extension.

The appeal for the Cubs was apparent. They had a superlative position player core that had carried them to the 2016 World Series. The starting rotation was already a strength, but one with some question marks on the horizon. Jake Arrieta and John Lackey were each approaching free agency, and it was fair to wonder for how much longer Jon Lester could post ace-level production. Locking in a cheap, young rotation stalwart like Quintana made perfect sense for that season and beyond.

It came at a hefty price. Jiménez, Baseball America’s #14 prospect entering that season, centered the package for the White Sox. Alongside him came another top 100 prospect, flamethrowing right-hander Dylan Cease. It was easy to see the South Siders’ thinking, too. Never able to build a competent roster around Sale, Quintana, Adam Eaton and José Abreu, the Sox had already pivoted to a teardown. Abreu stuck around, but the rest of the core was shipped off for future assets. It was a fascinating, if mutually-understandable swap, with the clubs’ crosstown rivalry no doubt adding intrigue. How have things actually played out?

To some extent, as expected. Quintana has remained remarkably durable and taken the ball every fifth day. That’s been especially useful for a team whose concerns about its long-term pitching outlook have generally proven true. Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Quintana have each been dependable, while big ticket free agent Yu Darvish has had some extreme highs and lows.

Despite a deluge of recent early-round picks on college arms, though, the Cubs haven’t established any sort of pitching pipeline from the farm system to supplement that quartet. On the one hand, that lack of cheap, in-house pitching makes acquiring Quintana all the more meaningful. Yet it’s also played some role in keeping the Cubs from reaching the dynastic heights some had anticipated.

Since the deal, the Cubs have been solid, but not quite at the level one could’ve reasonably hoped for. That characterization also applies to Quintana himself. The Colombian lefty has given the Cubs 400+ innings of 4.23 ERA/3.95 FIP ball. That’s about league average production on a rate basis. With his exceptional durability, he’s a valuable pitcher, especially relative to his contract. But he hasn’t pitched at the level he showed on the other side of town. Now 31, Quintana’s entering the final season (assuming there is a season) of the aforementioned extension. He’s a plausible but uncertain candidate for a qualifying offer next winter, which could allow the Cubs to add a draft pick.

Even if Quintana does net a compensatory pick, that player won’t project to be anywhere near the level of Jiménez. (That, of course, is what the Cubs expected, since there was always going to be a high price to pay for a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber). Not only did Jiménez continue to thrive in the White Sox’s system, he’s already found major league success.

Last season, Jiménez hit .267/.315/.513 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs in 504 plate appearances. He’s not without his flaws; he didn’t rate well in left field and could perhaps stand to be a little more patient at the plate. Yet there’s no questioning Jiménez’s massive power upside, and he certainly looks the part of a potential middle-of-the-order force. Clearly, the White Sox expect him to be just that, having inked him to a $43MM guarantee that could keep him in Chicago through 2026. So continues the long line of early-career extensions the organization has amassed in recent years. Those deals (Quintana’s included) have paid huge dividends on the whole.

Cease, too, has a shot at emerging as a long-term asset. He raised his stock immediately after the trade with a strong season and a half in the minors. That didn’t translate in his first 14 MLB starts last season, but there are things to dream on. Cease posted a solid 24.9% strikeout rate as a rookie while averaging 96.5 MPH on his fastball. His is a higher-variance profile than Jiménez’s, but the Sox surely hope he can emerge as a useful arm in the near future, even if as a reliever.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s probably fair to say the Cubs wouldn’t make this deal again. It was a perfectly defensible move at the time, and Quintana has capably filled a key need on the roster. It’s not a disaster, as a few of the front office’s free agent moves have been. But Quintana’s slight regression on the North Side, combined with Jiménez’s continued blossoming offensively, looks to have tipped the scales in the White Sox’s favor.

Quick Hits: Miller, Wacha, Expansion

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Some items from around the game…

  • Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller spoke to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about several topics, including the recent agreement between the league and players’ union about the 2020 season, how Miller is handling the shutdown, and the rather mysterious arm problem that sidelined Miller earlier this month.  “There are some explanations for some of what I’m going through and I have a lot of appreciation for the amount of time [Cardinals head athletic trainer] Adam Olsen and Dr. [Brian] Mahaffey have put in helping me to look for some answers,” Miller said.  Though there still isn’t an actual diagnosis of Miller’s issue, “I think I have answers that make a lot of sense and they’re not the type of thing that brings any sort of concern to my health and my livelihood.”  The southpaw is currently throwing, albeit under “not…ideal” circumstances working out at his home rather than in a normal training environment.
  • Michael Wacha turned to some offseason video analysis with his father to help solve mechanical problems from the 2019 season, which put him in a good place heading into his first Spring Training with the Mets, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes.  By the time Wacha met with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Accardo in camp, “they said my mechanical changes that I made over the offseason were exactly what they were going to be telling me,” Wacha said.  “Exactly the same type of information or helpful tips that they were trying to get me into, I already made them on my own.”  The early returns in Grapefruit League action were somewhat promising, as Wacha posted a 1.17 ERA over 7 2/3 innings, albeit with four walks against only five strikeouts.  However, Wacha also didn’t allow any home runs, which was a positive sign after an ugly 1.8 HR/9 helped push his ERA to 4.76 over 126 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.  Wacha signed a one-year, $3MM with the Mets in the offseason and now looks to be a member of their starting five, in the wake of Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending Tommy John surgery.
  • With league revenues bound to take a massive hit due to the shutdown, could expansion be an ideal way to inject some new money into the sport?  Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the question, noting that adding two new teams worth $750MM each (which is perhaps a conservative estimate for the price tag of a new club) in franchise fees would give each current team an extra $50MM in revenue.  Commissioner Rob Manfred has often said that the league would only consider increasing its membership after all of the current 30 teams (namely the A’s and Rays) had some type of plans in place for a new ballpark, and Edwards observes that the league hasn’t had any real financial incentive to expand in recent years.  Of course, the pandemic could now change that stance entirely, though Edwards also points out that the worldwide financial uncertainty caused by the ongoing crisis could lead to fewer potential owners willing meet the price for an expansion team, and cash-strapped cities will now have even less of a reason to spend resources on building a new stadium for a new team.

Diamondbacks, Robbie Ray Hadn’t Been Discussing Extension

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There won’t be any extension negotiations happening anytime soon around the baseball world, though even prior to the league shutdown, the Diamondbacks and left-hander Robbie Ray weren’t engaging in any talks about a new deal, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) reports.  Ray is scheduled to be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason, and he is still set to hit the open market even in the event that the 2020 season doesn’t happen, as per the recent agreement between the league and the players’ union.

An extension between Ray and the D’Backs never seemed overly likely, as the southpaw has been a fixture in trade rumors for over a year.  Rather than be one of the prominent Diamondbacks stars to leave town via trade (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke) in recent years, Ray now looks to follow Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock on the list of D’Backs who left in free agency.  Despite this turnover, however, GM Mike Hazen has remodeled the Snakes into a team that looks like it could compete for a postseason berth if the 2020 season happens, especially after a busy winter that saw Arizona acquire Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte.

While last summer’s Greinke trade indicates that we can’t be totally sure that the D’Backs wouldn’t try to move Ray even if they remain in contention, Ray doesn’t have nearly the payroll impact that Greinke’s contract carried.  Ray avoided arbitration in his third and final arb-eligible year by agreeing to a $9.43MM for 2020, meaning that he didn’t represent much of a financial burden even before the league shutdown, and Ray will now earn only a prorated amount of that $9.43MM figure based on the number of games actually played in the shortened schedule.

It’s a more than reasonable price to pay for a starter who has been occasionally spectacular but mostly solid over the last five seasons.  Since coming to Arizona as part of the three-team trade with the Tigers and Yankees that sent Didi Gregorius to New York and Shane Greene to Detroit in December 2014, Ray has a 3.96 ERA, 11.3 K/9, and 2.77 K/BB rate over 762 innings.  Ray has battled some control and hard-contact issues, and has consistently had difficultly keeping the ball in the park, though getting out of Chase Field could help address that latter problem.  The 28-year-old southpaw has allowed 58 homers in 349 2/3 innings at Chase Field over his career, and only 52 home runs in 441 innings elsewhere.

Another good season would have put Ray in line for a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had Ray ranked sixth in the first edition of the 2020-21 free agent power rankings (written in February).  Projecting what Ray might earn is now much harder, of course, given the total uncertainty of what next winter’s market could look like in the aftermath of the abbreviated-or-canceled 2020 season.

Details On The MLB/MLBPA 2020 Season Agreement

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association reached a deal Thursday addressing many of the outstanding questions facing the game in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown, including how the two sides will address a shortened (or perhaps altogether canceled) 2020 season.  The specifics of this agreement still aren’t fully known, due in part to the ongoing fluidity of how baseball and the players’ union will have to adjust to future events, though we’ve already learned quite a few ways in which the sport’s structure will be altered for this wholly unique season.  Some of the latest details…

  • ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel published a highly-recommended breakdown of the agreement, including an explanation of how MLB’s $170MM advance payment will be distributed to players if the season is cancelled entirely.
  • Another key insight from Passan and McDaniel: “The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won’t be used in the precedent-based system going forward.”  No further detail is provided regarding the adjustment to the arbitration system, which in a sense is already set up to consider lessened counting statistics.  For example, if Kris Bryant hits 20 home runs in the course of an 81-game 2020 season, will that be viewed as the equivalent of a 40 home run campaign?  Passan and McDaniel’s other arbitration-related revelation – that the upcoming batch of arbitration salaries will be excluded as future precedents – implies that players may not have the luxury of getting a 40 home run type raise for a 20 home run half-season.
  • The ESPN duo also notes that 2020 luxury tax payrolls will be assessed “base[d] it on what full-season salaries were supposed to be, not prorated salary payment.”  This is notable in that a team like the Yankees, who are way above the luxury tax threshold, will still be taxed even though they will actually pay out much less than $208MM in salaries.  The actual tax paid will be prorated, according to Passan and McDaniel.  The writers also explain, “And if there is no season, there will be no taxes owed, implying every team would reset to the lowest competitive balance tax threshold.”  Before the coronavirus struck, teams such as the Red Sox and Cubs basically devoted their offseasons to getting under the threshold and resetting their tax rate for the future.
  • Speaking of veteran players on minor league contracts, several of those deals contained player opt-out dates set five days prior to the Opening Day that never occurred.  MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) has heard speculation that the league could simply push those deadlines to five days prior to the season’s new start.  With no official policy yet in place, we’ve seen different approaches from various teams to this issue, ranging from some clubs agreeing to delay opt-out decision dates independently, to some teams officially selecting a non-roster player’s contract in order to confirm their place on the Major League roster.
  • The MLB/MLBPA agreement also has a provision for players who aren’t on a 40-man roster but are on guaranteed contracts, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets.  Such players as the Diamondbacks’ Yasmany Tomas “will receive more advance pay than a minor-leaguer,” though it isn’t clear if they would receive the full $5K daily salary through April and May.  Tomas was set to make $17MM in 2020, which was the last season of his six-year, $68.5MM deal signed back in December 2014.  Arizona outrighted Tomas off its 40-man roster in each of the last two seasons, and he has appeared in only four Major League games for the D’Backs in that time.
  • For a high-level explainer of this week’s agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, check out Jeff Todd’s video here.

Victor Robles Joins Newly-Founded Republik Agency

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Word broke earlier this month that agent Rafa Nieves was leaving the Wasserman Agency, and Nieves tweeted yesterday from his personal account that he had finalized his departure.  The next step appears to be his own firm, as Nieves’s Twitter bio identifies himself as the CEO and founder of Republik Sports.

As per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link), “many players” currently represented by Nieves are leaving Wasserman for Republik.  A look at Republik’s Instagram page gives hints about some of those names, and the TalkNats blog tweets that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles will indeed be joining Nieves at the new agency.  This change has been reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

It was less than three years ago that Nieves joined Wasserman, bringing several well-known clients (including Robles, Jose Ramirez, Gregory Polanco, Alex Colome, Francisco Cervelli, Frankie Montas, and Kelvin Herrera) along with him to the agency.  Nieves, a 36-year-old Venezuela native, has already become a notable figure in the representation business, as detailed by The Athletic’s Marc Carig in a profile from last August.

The 22-year-old Robles became an everyday player for the first time in 2019, hitting .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for Washington.  While Robles’ hitting (88 OPS+, 91 wRC+) was nothing to write home about, he was a major plus on the basepaths and especially in the outfield.  Robles immediately established himself as one of the sport’s top defensive center fielders, posting a +6.1 UZR/150, +23 Defensive Runs Saved, and a league-best 23 Outs Above Average.  This performance earned Robles a sixth-place finish in NL Rookie Of The Year voting, and his emergence helped the Nats make up for the departure of Bryce Harper in the outfield as the franchise went on to capture its first World Series title.

Between his age, glovework, and a solid offensive track record in the minors that hints at more progress to come at the plate, Robles looks like a foundational player for Washington.  He is still two years away from arbitration eligibility and is under team control through the 2024 season.  Though teams are unable to discuss contract extensions during the league-wide roster freeze, it stands to reason that the Nats would have interest in locking Robles up in a long-term deal.  It’s worth mentioning that Nieves has a couple of prominent early-career extensions on his record, negotiating Ramirez’s current contract with the Indians and Polanco’s ongoing deal with the Pirates.

Optioned Players: 3/28/20

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Today is the last day in which teams can option players to the minors before the MLB roster freeze kicks in. We’ll keep track of the smaller-scale option decisions around the league.

  • The Padres optioned reliever Gerardo Reyes to Triple-A El Paso, the club announced. The righty logged 26 innings in 27 MLB appearances in 2019, his first big league action. Reyes’ 7.62 ERA was certainly not what he envisioned, but he struck out a very strong 32.5% of opposing hitters behind a 15.6% swinging strike rate. Reyes averaged 96.9 MPH with above-average spin on his fastball in his MLB work and looks like a solid relief prospect for the Friars.

Marlins Option Monte Harrison, Nick Neidert

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The Marlins have optioned a pair of prospects to Triple-A Wichita, per multiple reporters (including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Outfielder Monte Harrison and right-hander Nick Neidert are headed to the Pacific Coast League.

Both Harrison, 24, and Neidert, 23, finished last season at the minors’ highest level, but each looked in need of a bit more seasoning. Harrison hit a passable .274/.357/.451 in 244 plate appearances with New Orleans (Miami’s previous Triple-A affiliate) last season. However, the former second-rounder’s longstanding strikeout troubles in the minors persisted.

Neidert, meanwhile, worked to a 5.05 ERA in nine Triple-A starts. That’s better than it seems on the surface given the hitter-friendly nature of the PCL. The control artist’s walk rate spiked dramatically in his 41 innings there, though, and his ground ball rate fell precipitously.

Both Harrison and Neidert still look to be solid, near-ready assets for the Marlins’ organization. They’re each among the club’s top 15 prospects, per Baseball America.

Today is the final day teams can option players before MLB’s roster freeze kicks in. As Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic points out, there’s a rationale behind teams’ recent spate of options around the league. By optioning players who didn’t figure to crack the Opening Day roster, the Marlins (and other teams who make similar moves) insulate themselves from paying an MLB salary if the players involved were to suffer a long-term injury while the sport is on hiatus. Upon the league’s resumption, such players would go on the minor-league injured list, where they would receive a minor-league salary and (presumably) not accrue MLB service time.

Breakout Candidate: Willie Calhoun

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Willie Calhoun was up and down between the majors and Triple-A quite a few times between 2017 and the first half of 2019. Last June, he got his long-awaited opportunity to play every day, emerging as the Rangers’ starting left fielder. He made the most of it at the plate, hitting .269/.323/.524 (110 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 337 plate appearances. Yet even those solid results seem to belie an impressive, exceedingly rare skillset. Very few players can match Calhoun’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and power.

Last year, Calhoun made contact on 85.4% of his swings; he swung and missed at just 7.2% of total pitches he saw, per Fangraphs. Both those marks are well better than the respective league averages of 76.2% and 11.1%. That places Calhoun among the top 30 or 40 contact hitters in the game- very good, if not quite exceptional. However, unlike many of the game’s bat control artists, Calhoun is also capable of doing damage. His 89.7 MPH average exit velocity would have placed him in the 63rd percentile leaguewide had he amassed enough plate appearances to qualify, per Statcast.

Combining elite bat-to-ball skills and above-average power on contact is tougher than one might expect. In 2019, only D.J. LeMahieu, Nick Markakis, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner had both a lower swinging strike rate and higher average exit velocity than did Calhoun (minimum 300 plate appearances). That’s an eye-catching assortment of names. It’s not a guarantee that Calhoun’s about to emerge as one of the game’s best hitters; Markakis, for instance, was merely average last year. But it does at least confirm Calhoun has a pair of key traits in common with many of the game’s best bats.

Maybe it isn’t surprising Calhoun seems to have massive offensive upside. He raked throughout his minor-league career, and scouts have long lauded his potential at the plate. There’s a reason Calhoun, while a prospect, headlined Texas’ return package for prime Yu Darvish despite concerns about his defense (which have also ultimately proven true). He’s a LF/DH at this point, so he’ll have to rake to warrant continued playing time.

To unlock the next gear offensively, the 25-year-old could stand to be a bit more selective. It seems reasonable to project that coming. After all, he’s only been an everyday big leaguer for half a season. He won’t ever be confused for Joey Votto, but given his other attributes, he needn’t be. Even a small progression in pitch selection could go a long way.

Calhoun should get every opportunity to cement himself as a middle-of-the-order force in Texas. While a scary hit-by-pitch fractured his jaw earlier this month, the most recent indication is that he’s recovering well.

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