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MLBTR Poll: NL East Favorite

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The World Series champions came from the National League East in 2019, when the appropriately named Nationals took home their first-ever title. It has been an active few months in the division since then. Even the notoriously low-budget Marlins have gotten in on the act, having added multiple veterans in an attempt to climb out of the gutter in 2020. Odds are that the Marlins still won’t be in the race, though, so who’s the front-runner among the other four to win the division this year? It appears they’re all legitimate candidates.

Although the Nationals just won it all, they did so by getting into the playoffs by way of a wild-card berth, not an NL East title. That honor went to the Braves for the second year in a row. The Braves still have not been victorious in a playoff series since 2001, and they lost their No. 1 free agent, third baseman Josh Donaldson. However, even in the wake of Donaldson’s departure, they still bring a formidable roster to the table. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., first baseman Freddie Freeman, second baseman Ozzie Albies and right-hander Mike Soroka haven’t gone anywhere. They’re now complemented by free-agent additions in outfielder Marcell Ozuna, lefty Cole Hamels and reliever Will Smith, among others.

Like the Braves, the Nats lost their marquee free agent, another third baseman in Anthony Rendon. There’s no easy way to replace him, though the team does have Asdrubal Cabrera on hand as a stopgap until standout prospect Carter Kieboom is ready to assume the reins. Rendon’s exit hasn’t deterred Washington from trying to go for a second straight title in 2020, as the club has re-signed righty Stephen Strasburg, to name one of several players, and picked up first baseman Eric Thames, second baseman Starlin Castro and reliever Will Harris from outside.

The Mets and Phillies were the next best teams in the division last season, and both clubs have new managers (Luis Rojas for New York, Joe Girardi for Philadelphia). They also have different-looking rosters compared to then. The Mets lost righty Zack Wheeler to the Phillies, whose $118MM guarantee ranks among the richest of the offseason. They still boast a quality rotation, though, with Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz and the newly signed Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha in the mix to complement back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. They also continue to feature a solid lineup headlined by the powerful Pete Alonso, last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, as well as Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil.

The Phillies did far more heavy lifting last offseason than this winter, but they’ve still been aggressive with the signings of Wheeler, who should give them a true No. 2 starter behind Aaron Nola, and shortstop Didi Gregorius. On paper, they look like a better team than the one that finished an even 81-81 a season ago.

Philly was a fourth-place squad in 2019, but it may be in line to push for a division title this year. However, it’ll have to overcome three strong clubs in the Braves (97-65), Nats (93-69) and Mets (86-76). The offseason isn’t over yet, but as of now, which team do you think is the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

Who's the NL East favorite?
Braves 59.23% (15,399 votes)
Nationals 16.51% (4,292 votes)
Mets 15.62% (4,062 votes)
Phillies 8.63% (2,244 votes)
Total Votes: 25,997

Revisiting Last Offseason’s Biggest Extensions: Pitchers

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Earlier this evening, we checked in on how the five hitters who signed the richest contract extensions before last season began performed in 2019. Let’s do the same here with pitchers…

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox – five years, $145MM through 2024: It’s understandable why the Red Sox locked up Sale, who was then coming off an otherworldly season in which he helped the club to a World Series title. Sale battled shoulder problems late in that year, however, and dealt with further injury woes and a drop in performance last season. The 30-year-old wound up throwing 147 1/3 innings, his fewest since 2011, thanks in part to elbow issues. When he did take the mound, Sale put up a career-worst ERA (4.40) and saw his average fastball velocity drop exactly 2 mph (95.7 to 93.7) from 2018. Those are alarming facts, but the bottom line is that there’s still plenty to like with Sale in the here and now. He did, after all, post a 3.39 FIP/2.93 xFIP/3.00 SIERA with an eye-popping 13.32 K/9 against 2.26 BB/9 during his “down” 2019.

Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets – four years, $120.5MM through 2023: This contract looks like a steal for the Mets, who retained arguably the best pitcher in the game for almost three times less than Gerrit Cole got in free agency this winter. After receiving his extension last March, the 31-year-old deGrom proceeded to put up his second straight NL Cy Young-winning season, during which he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.67 FIP with 11.25 K/9 and 1.94 BB/9 in 204 innings.

Miles Mikolas, RHP, Cardinals – four years, $68MM through 2023: Mikolas struggled in the majors early in his career, dominated in Japan for a couple years, and then thrived in his first season back in the bigs with the Cardinals in 2018. They were impressed enough to lock up Mikolas for the long haul before last season, but the 31-year-old declined somewhat. He still offered quality production, though, with his velocity and swinging-strike rates in the same vicinity as the previous season. Mikolas ended up tossing 184 frames of 4.16 ERA/4.27 FIP ball with 7.04 K/9 and 1.57 BB/9 (the fourth-lowest walk rate in MLB).

Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros – two years, $66MM through 2021: There’s not much to say here besides the obvious: This looks like a good decision. The ageless Verlander, soon to turn 37, just won the second AL Cy Young of his career. He’s in line to front the Astros’ staff, which lost Cole, for at least two more seasons.

Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs – four years, $55.5MM through 2023: The soft-tossing Hendricks isn’t the flashiest, but the 30-year-old righty has typically kept runs off the board and limited walks. Last season was no different – Hendricks recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.61 FIP with 7.63 K/9 against 1.67 BB/9 over 177 innings. With a fastball that only clocks in around 87 mph, there’s little room for error, but Hendricks has made it work so far. Despite Hendricks’ unimposing velocity, his fastball was one of the most valuable in the game last year, per FanGraphs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pirates Sign Charlie Tilson, Andrew Susac

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The Pirates announced minor league deals with outfielder Charlie Tilson and catcher Andrew Susac on Friday. Both players will be in Major League camp this spring, as will lefties Derek Holland and Robbie Erlin, whose previously reported minor league deals were confirmed by the team.

Tilson, 27, was once a well-regarded prospect with the Cardinals and White Sox. Known primarily for his speed, he was flipped from St. Louis to Chicago several years ago in a deal that sent Zach Duke to the Cardinals. The ChiSox hoped they’d found a top-of-the-order hitter who could provide good defense and generally serve as a nuisance to other teams on the basepaths, but Tilson unfortunately tore his hamstring in his debut game with the Sox back in 2016. Other lower half injuries, namely a stress reaction in his right foot, limited him substantially the following year.

Tilson has now appeared in 96 big league games but has never gotten back on track after that rash of injuries in 2016-17. He’s a career .246/.310/.290 hitter in the Majors, although last year’s Triple-A showing (.288/.345/.398) at least created a bit of optimism that perhaps he could still tap into some of that previous potential. Tilson swiped only eight bases between Triple-A and the Majors in 2019, however, so it appears his days as a 40-steal threat might be in the past now that those lower-half injuries have taken their toll.

Susac, meanwhile, was not only a well-regarded prospect but was at various points considered to be among the game’s top 100 farmhands during his days with the Giants. His strong work early in his career in Triple-A has never really carried over to the Majors, though, and the now-29-year-old backstop (30 in March) has a career .221/.283/.373 slash in 300 big league plate appearances. He’s a career .247/.351/.431 hitter in Triple-A — numbers that are somewhat skewed by an awful 2017 season with Milwaukee’s top affiliate.

Latest On Dominic Smith

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Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith entered the winter looking like a prime trade candidate, but nothing has come together a few months since the team’s season ended. Perhaps Smith could still end up on the move in the coming weeks, but he’s not part of any “active trade talks” right now, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

A former top-100 prospect, Smith was a letdown at the major league level from 2017-18, but his production trended in the right direction last season. The 24-year-old slashed an impressive .282/.355/.525 with 11 home runs over 197 plate appearances. He dealt with injuries, though, and came up short in the Statcast category, evidenced by a .327 expected weighted on-base average that fell 41 points shy of his actual wOBA of .368.

Defensively, most of Smith’s action last year came in the corner outfield, but the team’s overrun by options in that area. Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis and the returning Yoenis Cespedes are all capable of playing there. While Smith’s more of a first baseman, good luck finding at-bats in that spot with NL Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso holding it down.

The Mets added lefty-hitting first baseman Matt Adams on a minors contract Friday, so he might serve as a fallback option if they do trade Smith. However, with the offseason winding down, a deal could be hard to come by for the club, as some of the teams that had the worst first base situations in the game last year have addressed the position since then (the Tigers signed C.J. Cron and the Marlins added Jesus Aguilar, to name two examples).

Speculatively, clubs like the Rangers, Royals and Orioles could still make sense for Smith, though it’s unknown whether they’ve shown interest in him. It’s also no sure thing the Mets even want to give Smith up, as Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that they’ve not “felt compelled to move him.” Even if New York’s loaded with other possibilities at Smith’s positions, the fact that he’s cheap, controllable depth surely appeals to the team. Smith’s not scheduled to reach arbitration for another year, and he’ll be eligible to go through the process four times.

Revisiting Last Offseason’s Biggest Extensions: Hitters

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We’re on the cusp of spring training, which is also a popular time for teams and players to work out long-term extensions. We saw several of those deals handed out before last season began. Let’s check in on how those pacts look now, beginning with the hitters who inked the five largest extensions of last offseason…

Mike Trout, CF, Angels – 10 years, $360MM: It’s anyone’s guess how this contract will look at the tail end of it (see: Pujols, Albert), but despite the amount, it has the makings of a wise decision at the moment. After all, the 28-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, continued to steamroll the opposition in 2019 – a season in which he earned his eighth straight All-Star nod and the third AL MVP of his career. The Angels really had no choice but to lock up Trout, and had they not done so, he’d be entering a contract year right now. He would also be in prime position to land an even richer contract on the open market less than a year from now.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies – seven years, $234MM: This deal already comes off as questionable for the Rockies, and it’s not because Arenado faded in 2019. On the contrary, the 28-year-old picked up his fifth straight All-Star honors and earned his seventh Gold Glove in a row. But Arenado is now known to be fed up with the Rockies because they haven’t done much to better their roster this winter after a horrid season, and he seems open to a trade as a result. However, his enormous new contract includes an opt-out clause after 2021, so teams probably aren’t champing at the bit to pay for seven years of Arenado in a trade when he could end up spending just two seasons in their uniform. And Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich isn’t just going to give away Arenado, Colorado’s franchise player, no matter how unhappy he may be with the organization. Needless to say, the two sides are in a spot neither expected to be in when they committed to each other for the long haul just months ago.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals – five years, $130MM: Arizona’s version of Goldschmidt was an elite player for most of his tenure there from 2011-18, which led the Cardinals to trade significant talent for him more than a year ago. Unfortunately for the Cards, though, the 2019 edition of Goldschmidt was pedestrian compared to his D-backs self. Goldschmidt wasn’t bad by any stretch, evidenced in part by his 34 home runs and 2.9 fWAR, but the .260/.346/.476 line he posted in 682 plate appearances comes up way short next to his career slash of .292/.391/.524. The drop-off’s not a great sign for a 32-year-old at the beginning of the biggest contract in Cardinals history.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros – five years, $100MM: This has not been a banner winter for the Astros, and if you follow the game at all, you know why. They are coming off a pennant-winning season, though, and Bregman was a key part of it. The 25-year-old was in the inner circle of premier players for the second straight season, slashing .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs and 8.5 fWAR in 690 plate appearances. The Astros still owe Bregman a lot of money, but he’s young enough that it seems safe to say they won’t regret ponying up for him.

Aaron Hicks, CF, Yankees – seven years, $70MM: Thanks to the injuries Hicks has suffered since signing it, this gamble hasn’t worked out to the Yankees’ liking so far. Hicks missed all but 59 games last year while battling back and elbow problems, and when he did play, he wasn’t nearly as effective as he was over the previous couple seasons. Worsening matters, Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow this past October, meaning the 30-year-old will sit out a sizable portion of the upcoming campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Melky Cabrera Hopes To Keep Playing At Least A “Couple” More Years

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We’ve reached the point of the offseason where it’s not entirely clear whether some veterans will continue their careers or move onto the next chapter. Curtis Granderson announced his retirement earlier today, and we’ve seen less-prolific names like Peter Bourjos and Tony Barnette step away from playing this week as well. To that end, while it’s been a quiet winter on the Melky Cabrera front, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the veteran switch-hitter hopes to keep playing for “another couple years.”

Cabrera has consistently hit for solid batting averages and maintained a low strikeout rate even into his mid-30s. The 35-year-old has hit .280 or better in four straight seasons and hasn’t seen his average dip south of .270 since way back in 2010. He’s never struck out at even a 14 percent clip in a single season. That said, Cabrera’s power dwindled in 2019, as even at a time when home runs were at an all-time high throughout the league, he posted his worst isolated power (.119) since a 2013 season in which he played part of the season with a benign tumor in his lower back. Last year’s 4.3 percent walk rate was also a career-worst, leading to Cabrera’s lowest OBP since 2008.

On the other side of the ball, Cabrera has never been considered a good defender but posted particularly rough numbers in the outfield with the Pirates in 2019. Despite playing only 682 innings in the field, he logged -15 Defensive Runs Saved, a -6.8 Ultimate Zone Rating and -4 Outs Above Average.

Cabrera was average or better at the plate from 2016-18, so a club that feels his power and/or walk rate can bounce back in 2020 might think there’s a moderately productive part-time outfielder with high-end bat-to-ball skills still in there. At the same time, his continually deteriorating defensive marks probably limit him to a bench role even if does latch on with a club. At some point, one can imagine that he’ll land a minor league contract somewhere, but like most of the remaining corner outfielders on the market, he’ll probably have to earn his way back to the Majors with a strong Spring Training or even with an early-season run in Triple-A.

Pirates Sign JT Riddle

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5:12pm: Riddle’s deal with the Pirates will pay him $850K, MLBTR has learned.

3:25pm: The Pirates announced Friday that they’ve signed infielder JT Riddle to a Major League contract. The addition of Riddle, a Meister Sports client, fills Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster.

JT Riddle | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Riddle, 28, was once considered to be among the more promising farmhands in the Marlins organization but was unable to establish himself in parts of three MLB seasons in Miami. Through 718 plate appearances, Riddle managed just a .229/.269/.368 batting line, which proved tepid enough that the Marlins eventually cut ties with him earlier this offseason.

Although he’s been unable to produce much at the MLB level, Riddle does carry a heartier .284/.321/.457 slash in 85 Triple-A contests. The former 13th-rounder and University of Kentucky product rose through Miami’s system primarily as a shortstop, but the Marlins began trying him out in center field in recent seasons as well. Riddle has played far more shortstop than any other position, but he does come to the Pirates with experience at second base, third base and in all three outfield slots.

Miami surely felt comfortable trying Riddle out at new defensive positions due to Miguel Rojas’ presence at shortstop, but the decision to pull Riddle away from short was still somewhat curious given how well he’s graded out at the position. In 1323 Major League innings at shortstop, Riddle notched 13 Defensive Runs Saved, 10 Outs Above Average and a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Twenty-six-year-old Kevin Newman currently projects to be the Pirates’ everyday option at short, but Riddle can give the club some depth there while also presenting them an option to play in center field following the departure of the recently traded Starling Marte. In the days since that trade, general manager Ben Cherington has been open about his desire to add some more options in center field, and while Riddle would seemingly qualify, it’s also of some note that the team’s press release announcing the move refers to Riddle solely as an infielder.

Riddle is out of minor league options, so today’s signing is a clear indicator that the Pirates will carry him on the big league roster to open the season. He has two years, 118 days of Major League service time, meaning he’s controllable not just for the 2020 season but all the way through the 2022 campaign. Riddle will be arbitration-eligible next winter.

Rockies Agree To Two-Year Contract With Trevor Story

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January 31: The Rockies have now formally announced Story’s two-year deal. Feinsand tweets that Story will be paid a $2MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2020 and a $17.5MM salary in 2021.

January 24, 8:39pm: It is indeed an arbitration-only contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets. Story will receive $27.5MM over the two-year term. The Rockies will not gain control over any prospective open-market seasons but will gain some cost certainty as part of the deal.

8:36pm: The Rockies are closing in on a “multi-year deal” with star shortstop Trevor Story, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Jon Morosi (Twitter link). It is not yet clear whether the contract would cover any potential free agent seasons or merely settle multiple arbitration campaigns at one time.

Needless to say, a long-term extension would be a fascinating development given all the recent chatter regarding fellow star Nolan Arenado. If it’s merely an arb work-out, it’d be a notable but hardly headlining development.

Story has filed for a $11.5MM salary, with the Rockies countering at a $10.75MM offer. He’s in his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $5MM in 2019. Story is slated to reach free agency at the end of the 2021 campaign.

Regardless of the contract specifics, the 27-year-old Story figures to be a monster again on the field in 2020. He’s coming off of a second-straight 30+ homer, 5+ fWAR effort. Story strikes out more than you’d like and only draws walks at league-average levels, but is still an exceptionally well-rounded performer. He hits for average with loads of power, contributes value on the bases, and is an outstanding defender at short.

Brewers Sign Andres Blanco To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers announced that they’ve signed veteran infielder Andres Blanco to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. He’s represented by GSE Worldwide.

Blanco will turn 36 in April and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017, but he’s had a pair of productive Triple-A campaigns in 2018 and 2019 — the former actually coming with the Brewers organization. Blanco hit .271/.362/.435 (111 wRC+) in 357 plate appearances with Triple-A Colorado Springs that season. Last year, with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, he put together a nearly identical .262/.364/.443 slash (109 wRC+) in a larger sample of 530 plate appearances.

The veteran Blanco has played in parts of 10 MLB seasons, logging time at each infield position and batting a combined .256/.310/.378 in 1321 trips to the plate. His signing comes just days after the Brewers found out projected shortstop Luis Urias will need six to eight weeks to recover from surgery to repair a broken hamate bone — an injury he sustained while playing in the Mexican Pacific Winter League. Blanco will head to Spring Training and vie to join a currently fluid infield mix that includes Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Orlando Arcia, Ryon Healy and Justin Smoak, among others.

Rockies Sign Zac Rosscup

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The Rockies have brought left-handed reliever Zac Rosscup back to the organization on a minor league contract, tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He won’t be in big league camp, so he’s presumably ticketed straight for Triple-A Albuquerque.

Rosscup, 31, tossed 18 Major League innings between the Mariners, Blue Jays and Dodgers in 2019, allowing 10 earned run (5.00 ERA) on 22 hits and 19 walks with 26 strikeouts. That type of production has been fairly typical for Rosscup, as he’s traditionally been able to rack up strikeouts in bunches but has also frequently struggled with his control. In 83 2/3 innings at the big league level, Rosscup has punched out 113 hitters (12.2 K/9) but also issued 55 walks (5.9 BB/9), with the result being a lackluster 5.16 earned run average. Rosscup does have a career 2.74 ERA in 115 Triple-A frames, where he’s also managed an impressive 12.7 K/9 mark.

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