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Archives for July 2023

Zach Eflin Headed For MRI On Left Knee

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Rays right-hander Zach Eflin exited today’s game after just four innings, and he’s now headed for an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his left knee, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. It’s an ominous development both for a pitcher with chronic knee issues and a Rays rotation that has already been clobbered by injuries in 2023.

Eflin, 29, signed a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $40MM in Tampa Bay this offseason — the largest free-agent expenditure (though not the largest overall contract) in Rays history. He entered play with a 3.36 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and sensational 3.6% walk rate in 112 1/3 innings — already his highest total since 2019. However, Eflin was hit hard today, yielding five runs on seven hits and a walk, and he departed after four innings.

Eflin has spoken openly about his battles with knee problems that date back to before he was even drafted. He underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in both knees back in 2016, and in 2021 he underwent a second surgery on his right knee. Further problems in that right knee sidelined Eflin for more than two months last summer.

That Eflin’s current issue is in his left knee and not his twice-repaired right knee isn’t likely to be a source of much comfort for the Rays and their fans. The team was surely wary of the risk of renewed knee problems when signing Eflin, though his performance to this point in the season does plenty to highlight why the Tampa Bay front office was willing to take that gamble.

The Rays are already dealing with several notable injuries in the rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last September and isn’t expected to pitch in 2023. Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year and won’t return until 2024. Drew Rasmussen’s season is also over, owing to surgery to repair a flexor tear. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 60-day injured list due to an elbow issue.

Tampa Bay is already known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and any absence of note for Eflin would only hasten their pursuits. They’ve been linked to the Cardinals’ rental starters and were reported this morning to be in talks with the White Sox on right-hander Lance Lynn.

With sudden uncertainty regarding Eflin’s health, the Rays’ only three healthy starters are Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and rookie Taj Bradley. It’s a talented trio, but injuries have thinned out the team’s depth and contributed to the Rays’ slide in the standings after a dominant start to the season. President of baseball operations Erik Neander, GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the staff seem all but certain to augment the rotation between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Mariners Acquire Trent Thornton From Blue Jays

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2:05pm: The Mariners have now announced the trade, with Gonzales indeed transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move. The lefty has been on the IL since late May due to a left forearm strain and has yet to begin a rehab assignment. He’ll be eligible to return from the IL as soon as this weekend but that doesn’t seem to be a possibility.

2:00pm: The Mariners are acquiring right-hander Trent Thornton from the Blue Jays, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Thornton was designated for assignment last week when the Jays acquired Génesis Cabrera. The Mariners are sending infielder Mason McCoy to the Jays in exchange. The M’s will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Thornton, though they can do that fairly easily by transferring Marco Gonzales to the 60-day injured list.

Thornton, now 29, came over to the Blue Jays in a November 2018 trade that sent utility player Aledmys Díaz to the Astros. The righty jumped into Toronto’s rotation the next year and tossed 154 1/3 innings with a 4.84 earned run average. He struck out 22% of batters faced while walking 9% of them.

But in 2020, he was limited to just three starts by elbow inflammation and has been transitioned into a relief role since then. He served as a frequently-optioned depth piece for the Jays in the past few seasons, logging 100 1/3 frames in the big leagues since the start of 2021 with a 4.31 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. He’s also been able to throw 66 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 2.98 ERA, striking out 21.8% of opponents while walking 10.9%.

Despite those decent numbers, Thornton was pushed down Toronto’s depth chart by other acquisitions and has only been able to make four big league appearances this year. He’s also in his final option year, meaning he’ll be out of options next year and will therefore have diminished roster flexibility. But the Mariners will still have the ability to option him for the rest of the year, allowing him to provide them with a bit of extra depth for their pitching staff. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com relays that Thornton will initially report to Triple-A Tacoma.

Heading the other way is McCoy, 28, who was originally drafted by the Orioles but was traded to the Mariners in a cash deal in April of 2022. Baseball America ranked him the 29th best prospect in Baltimore’s system in 2020, praising his glove and bat-to-ball skills but expressing some concern about a lack of future power.

Since that trade, he’s been playing for Triple-A Tacoma in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He hit 20 home runs last year but struck out in 25.8% of his plate appearances. His .256/.332/.473 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 in that offensively-charged environment. This year, he’s added another 11 homers but struck out at a 29.5% clip. His .234/.330/.407 line this year translates to a 77 wRC+.

Despite the subpar offense, he should have a decent floor due to his other qualities. He stole 22 bases last year and has swiped another 20 already here in 2023. He also has defensive versatility, having played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as some brief appearances in the outfield. He will be eligible for minor league free agency at the end of this season if not added to Toronto’s 40-man roster.

MLB Owners Vote To Extend Commissioner Rob Manfred

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Major League Baseball’s owners have voted to extend the contract of commissioner Rob Manfred through the 2028 season, reports Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The four-year extension will run through Jan. 25, 2029. The league has since announced the extension via press release.

“It is an honor to serve the best game in the world and to continue the pursuit of strengthening our sport on and off the field,” Manfred said within today’s press release. “This season our players are displaying the most vibrant version of our game, and sports fans are responding in a manner that is great for Major League Baseball’s future. Together, all of us in the game will work toward presenting our sport at its finest and broadening its reach and impact for our loyal fans.”

A new contract for Manfred was seen as a foregone conclusion. Manfred was unanimously approved for a five-year extension when his contract was last up for vote, and he needed only a simple majority to be extended once again. He’s been the commissioner since 2014, when he succeeded the retiring Bud Selig.

“At a critical moment in the history of our game, Commissioner Manfred has listened to our fans and worked closely with our players to improve America’s pastime,” said Mariners chairman John Stanton, who also served as the chair for the meeting in which the vote was held. “Under his leadership, we have been responsive to the fans’ desire for more action and better pace, continued the game’s spirit of innovation, expanded MLB’s role in youth baseball and softball, and beyond. The significant momentum that MLB has built reflects his ongoing initiatives that are advancing the game.”

While Manfred is unpopular with a notable portion of the fanbase — many bristle at recent rule changes, expansion of the playoff format, the commissioner’s past comments calling the World Series trophy a “piece of metal,” etc. — the owners have good reason to extend his contract. Manfred has helmed negotiations of lucrative national television contracts with FOX, Turner Sports and ESPN, in addition to brokering highly profitable streaming deals with Apple and NBC Universal (Peacock). Heading into the 2022 season, Forbes reported that each MLB team was set to receive a hefty $65MM from those national television and streaming deals alone — before even considering gate revenue, local television deals, etc.

Manfred also navigated two of the most challenging period in recent MLB history, representing the owners’ interest along the way during return-to-play negotiations during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and during the recent wave of collective bargaining with the MLB Players Association.

The league implemented what ended up being a 99-day lockout following the 2021 season, but after months of negotiation with the MLBPA, the two sides wound up reaching an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement spanning the 2022-26 seasons. The eleventh-hour deal was reached in time for a full slate of 162 games to be played last year — this time with a newly expanded 12-team postseason format.

Broadly speaking, the business of baseball is as profitable as ever. Manfred told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times last year that league revenues were approaching a record $11 billion for the 2022 season. It likely wasn’t coincidental that MLB took the time this morning to highlight how last night’s average MLB attendance was its best non-holiday performance on a Tuesday since 2015 and second-best since 2008. As the sport moves further and further from that shortened 2020 season that was played in the absence of fan attendance, ownership is clearly confident in Manfred’s ability to bring about further revenue growth.

Tigers’ Jose Cisnero, Chasen Shreve Garnering Trade Interest

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Tigers relievers Alex Lange and Jason Foley are the club’s most valuable trade chips in the bullpen, but veterans Jose Cisnero and Chasen Shreve are drawing interest as well, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Both are free agents at season’s end, giving both a good chance to be moved by next Tuesday’s deadline.

Cisnero, a 34-year-old righty, has pitched to a 3.96 ERA in 38 1/3 innings this season and carries a 3.19 ERA in 155 frames dating back to the 2020 season. He’s averaging 96.1 mph on his heater, striking out 25.7% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate, and inducing grounders at a health 45.2% clip in 2023. He’s earning $2,287,500 this season.

Shreve, who turned 33 earlier this month, is sporting a less-appealing 4.82 ERA but has a more appetizing secondary profile. He’s punching out a strong 24.2% of his opponents against a 6.8% walk rate, sports a nice 12.9% swinging-strike rate and has kept the ball on the ground at a 47.7% clip. Fielding-independent metrics (3.89 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA) feel he’s performed far better than that ERA would suggest. Notably, five of the 20 runs Shreve has allowed this year came in one nightmare outing; he has a 3.67 ERA and 31-to-7 K/BB ratio in 27 innings since.

Originally signed to a minor league deal, Shreve is earning a $1.25MM base salary in Detroit, though his contract was an incentive-laden deal and he’s already begun to tap into those bonuses. He’s already triggered a trio of $75K bonuses for reaching 20, 30 and 35 innings pitched, and he’ll unlock another $75K bonus when he hits 40 innings. Shreve’s contract also pays him $100K at 45 and 50 innings and $125K innings at both 55 and 60 innings.

Neither reliever figures to draw a substantial haul of talent on his own, but the 46-55 Tigers figure to be open to dealing either, given their looming free agency. Neither would receive a qualifying offer, and Detroit could use those spots in the bullpen to look at younger arms down the stretch. Speculatively, either could be paired up with one of the Tigers’ other clear-cut trade candidates — Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen — to enhance the return.

McCosky writes that Cisnero and Shreve have thus far generated more trade interest than either Lange or Foley, though that’s surely just due to likely asking price on the latter duo. Both Lange and Foley are under Tigers control through the 2027 season, and while neither can be entirely ruled out as a trade candidate, that remaining club control will naturally lead to a much higher asking price. Be that as it may, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that some clubs could eventually turn to names like Lange and Foley in their quest for bullpen upgrades, given the underwhelming slate of names on this summer’s rental market.

Twins Eyeing Bullpen Help, Right-Handed Bats

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The Twins are the only team in the AL Central above .500, and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey unsurprisingly tells Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic that they’ll accordingly operate as buyers at this year’s deadline. Bullpen help and right-handed bats are the primary areas of focus for Minnesota between now and next Tuesday’s deadline.

One club the Twins have spoken to has both to offer. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News tweets that the Twins have talked with the Nationals, who have been scouting Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul. The Nats are just one of many teams the Twins have spoken too, of course, but the presence of outfielder Lane Thomas and surely available relievers like Kyle Finnegan present some obvious fits.

Falvey suggested that the Twins will be in the market for more “complementary” pieces, which might take someone like Thomas off the table, though as a lefty-mashing outfielder with multiple seasons of club control remaining beyond the current year, he’s an on-paper fit at the very least.

Falvey noted, however, that he’s amenable to trading for rental players. The trade market figures to have plenty of righty-swinging options who fit that bill — Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and Adam Duvall potentially among them. (Canha has a 2024 option.)

The Twins are hitting just .219/.293/.369 against left-handed pitching this season, thanks in no small part to a glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders that at one point looked likely to lead to an offseason trade. That never materialized, however.

[Related: Twins’ Outfielders Drawing Trade Attention]

Many of the Twins’ offseason acquisitions who were added with an eye toward bolstering the lineup against southpaws have fallen shy of expectation in that regard. Christian Vazquez, Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor all have some past success against lefties, but none has been more than average against southpaws in 2023. Kyle Farmer has hit lefties well but not up to his prior standards.

Incumbent righty bats like Byron Buxton and the previously optioned (and now injured) Jose Miranda, meanwhile, have struggled against southpaws. Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco have hit lefties well, but both are on sitting alongside Miranda on the injured list. Polanco has been out since early June. Lewis hit the IL in early July and isn’t expected back until next month.

Similarly, the Twins are missing some key contributors in the bullpen. Left-hander Caleb Thielbar has quietly become an excellent setup man since his 2020 return to the big leagues after a five-year absence. The 36-year-old has pitched to a 3.10 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since 2020 but has just 10 1/3 innings this year due to a pair of oblique injuries.

Brock Stewart, another diamond-in-the-rough find for the Twins, returned to the Majors for the first time since 2019 this year and has posted a 0.70 ERA and 35.4% strikeout rate for the Twins. However, he’s been out since late July with an elbow issue. Stewart threw his first bullpen session today and will throw another Saturday, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter link), but it’s not yet clear just when he’ll be back in the Twins’ bullpen. The absence of both Thielbar and Stewart was felt last night when the Twins’ relief corps squandered a four-run lead and strong start from Pablo Lopez in a game they eventually dropped to the Mariners by a score of 9-7.

White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers

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11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.

Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.

With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.

9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.

Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.

While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.

That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.

The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.

At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.

Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.

That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.

Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.

Red Sox, Eddy Alvarez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with utilityman Eddy Alvarez on a minor league contract, tweets Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He’ll join their top affiliate in Worcester.

Alvarez, 33, had spent the season in Triple-A with the Brewers after signing an offseason minor league deal. The left-handed hitter put together a nice showing for their top affiliate, posting a .283/.397/.473 line over 257 plate appearances. He walked at an excellent 14% clip against an average 22.6% strikeout rate while playing each of second, third, shortstop and both corner outfield positions.

Nevertheless, Milwaukee declined to add him to the MLB roster. Alvarez opted out of the deal a couple weeks ago and will take another crack at the majors in the Sox’s organization. He earned brief MLB looks with the Marlins and Dodgers between 2020-22, hitting .183/.262/.262 with one homer in 50 games.

Alvarez is a much more accomplished Triple-A hitter. The Miami native has a .286/.390/.468 line over parts of seven seasons at the top minor league level. He’ll bring that strong upper minors track record and defensive flexibility as a depth option for Boston.

Mets Have Not Approached Justin Verlander About Deadline Trade

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The Mets are expected to do some selling before the August 1 trade deadline but they have not approached Justin Verlander about any potential trade talks. That’s notable since the veteran has a full no-trade clause and would need to sign off on any deal before it could be completed.

“I would hope that if there was any chance of that, Billy would come and talk to me and that hasn’t happened,” Verlander said to Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports yesterday, referring to general manager Billy Eppler. “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here… Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”

The Mets and owner Steve Cohen ran up the biggest payroll in MLB history for this season but that hasn’t translated into the on-field results they were hoping for. They are currently 47-53, a distant fourth place in the National League East and seven games back in the Wild Card race. It was about a month ago that Cohen addressed the club’s lackluster results and said it would be “silly” to make additions. The club was 8.5 games back of the postseason at that time, and though they are slightly closer now, it still seems like they might have their sights set on 2024.

It’s expected that the club might at least look to move some impending free agents such as Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson, or players with 2024 options like Mark Canha and Adam Ottavino. Verlander would be a very different situation. Part of the club’s spending spree in the winter was signing him to a two-year, $86.67MM deal, with a $35MM player option for 2025 that’s conditional on him throwing 140 innings next year.

There are various factors in there that would make a trade complicated. One is that Verlander hasn’t quite been as dominant as last year’s Cy Young campaign. He’s allowing 3.24 earned runs per nine innings this year, a solid number in a vacuum but one that’s almost double his 1.75 mark from a year ago. His strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 27.8% to 20.9% this year, while his walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.2%.

Some of that might be explained by the fact that he started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain and didn’t debut until May. He has a much stronger 2.44 ERA since the start of June and a 1.69 in July alone. But the overall season in his age-40 campaign may have given some other clubs hesitation regardless, especially considering his massive salary. Then the no-trade clause adds another wrinkle, as Verlander would have to approve any deal that the Mets could line up. It wouldn’t be unprecedented, as Verlander previously approved a trade from the Tigers to the Astros in 2017, but that doesn’t necessarily mean those stars could align again.

The cash part of the deal might not be a total obstacle, at least judging by the way the Mets have behaved under Cohen. In addition to spending heavily in free agency, the club has shown a willingness to eat money in trades in order to tip the scales on the talent side. They flipped infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Angels last month, eating all of his salary in order to get a pair of prospects. They also took Chris Flexen’s deal off the hands of the Mariners in order to acquire Trevor Gott earlier this month, immediately designating Flexen for assignment.

It’s possible the Mets have had some internal discussions about doing a similar thing with Verlander’s deal, though that would clearly be in a different stratosphere. Escobar is making $9.5MM this year and only had about half of that left to be paid out at the time of his trade, while the Mets took on about $8.5MM in the Gott deal when factoring in luxury tax payments. But Verlander will still be owed about $14MM from this year’s deadline to the end of the season, plus another $43.33MM next year and the $35MM player option looming after that.

It’s entirely possible that Cohen is willing to eat that massive sum in order to obtain some prospects, since he keeps surpassing the expectations of what an owner is willing to spend. But there would be complications for the Mets beyond the money, namely the additional hole it would make in next year’s rotation. Though the club may do some selling this year, there’s nothing to indicate they’re embarking on a years-long rebuild, as they are expected to try to compete again in 2024.

As mentioned, Carrasco is an impending free agent and isn’t slated to be back even if he’s not moved at the deadline. José Quintana’s contract runs through 2024 but he’s drawn some trade interest recently. Max Scherzer also has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out opportunity this offseason.

That leaves Kodai Senga, with four more years on his contract after this one, as the most sure thing in the rotation next year. Scherzer isn’t having a typically dominant season with a 4.20 ERA, so it doesn’t seem like he’s trending towards opting out, but a strong finish to the season could always change things. Regardless, trades of Quintana and/or Verlander would further deplete the group. They have some internal options with David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but they’d obviously be better with a healthy and effective Verlander.

With the deadline now less than a week away and the complicated nature of any theoretical Verlander deal, it seems like the club doesn’t have any plans on shopping him around. That points to him likely returning to Queens in 2024, just after his 41st birthday, and hoping the Mets fare better in his second year as a Met.

Nationals Select Andrés Machado, Transfer Víctor Robles To 60-Day IL

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The Nationals announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Andrés Machado, with righty Amos Willingham optioned to Triple-A Rochester in a corresponding move. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Machado, outfielder Víctor Robles was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Machado, 30, has been with the Nats since 2021, though he was outrighted off their roster in the offseason. He got added back at the end of April but was clobbered for 16 earned runs in 17 innings, leading to an ERA of 8.47. Having burned all his option years, he was outrighted off their roster again in June and had the right to reject that assignment since it was his second, though he decided to accept and stay in the organization.

Since returning to Rochester, he has thrown 16 1/3 innings with a 4.96 ERA, but with strong peripherals. He’s stuck out 27.9% of batters faced while walking 4.4% of them. A .349 batting average on balls in play and 56.1% strand rate may have pushed some extra runs across, as his FIP is a much more palatable 2.98. That’ll seemingly get him another shot in the Nats bullpen, which is one of the worst in the league. Their collective 5.47 ERA is almost the worst in the majors, just barely better than Oakland’s 5.49. It’s also possible that Kyle Finnegan ends up traded in the next week, since he has garnered some interest.

As for Robles, he was placed on the 10-day IL on June 21 due to back spasms in the lumbar spine, his second IL stint for that issue this year. It seems the club doesn’t expect him back soon, as he’ll now be ineligible to return until mid-August. Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relayed this week that Robles is staying in D.C. for the foreseeable future to do rehab work around the big league club.

It’s another frustrating development for the former top prospect, who has always had speed and defense to offer but generally struggled at the plate. He had hit .233/.306/.359 in his career coming into this season but seemed to show positive strides here in 2023. He has a stronger line of .299/.385/.364 this year while significantly cutting his strikeouts, but the back spasms have limited that to just 36 games.

Robles will be eligible for one more pass through arbitration this offseason, though might not be able to get much of a raise beyond this year’s $2.325MM salary based on all his missed time. He might have been a trade candidate this summer if he were healthy but that’s unfortunately not the case. Players on the IL can be traded but it’s unlikely the interest is high right now, based on his uncertain health status.

Padres Have Turned Away Interest In Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres’ season has been an abject disappointment, but despite a 10-game deficit in the NL West and a six-game gap in the NL Wild Card chase, they apparently remain intent on keeping the roster together. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the Friars have received and thus far rebuffed interest in lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Both southpaws are free agents at season’s end. Snell is wrapping up the final season of a five-year, $50MM contract extension originally signed with the Rays. He’s earning $16MM this season. Hader is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and being paid $14.1MM.

After a rocky start to the season, the 30-year-old Snell has rediscovered the form that helped him win the American League Cy Young Award in 2018. Dating back to mid-May, Snell has pitched to a preposterous 0.78 ERA and 35.9% strikeout rate in 69 innings. He’s walked an ugly 13.4% of his opponents during that time, although that number is at least partially skewed by one anomalous start in which he issued seven free passes. Overall, Snell carries a 2.61 ERA. He’s running a strikeout rate north of 30% for the sixth consecutive season.

Hader, similarly, has rebounded this season. Much was made of the lefty’s struggles prior to last July’s trade to San Diego and subsequent rough patch early in his Padres tenure. However, he closed out the year with a dominant stretch and was excellent throughout the postseason as well. He’s backed that up with 38 innings of 0.95 ERA ball, 24 saves and a massive 38.4% strikeout rate in 2023. Like Snell, he’s too prone to free passes (13.2% walk rate), but Hader’s penchant for missing bats has helped to mitigate any potential damage.

Both pitchers would be clear candidates to receive qualifying offers at season’s end, and both would surely reject in search of a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency (barring a notable second-half injury or collapse). As such, the Padres can feel confident that they’ll at least come away with a pair of compensatory picks in next year’s draft. However, since they’re luxury-tax payors, those picks would land after the fourth round rather than the standard slotting between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft.

The luxury tax comes into play in another regard for the Padres, too. San Diego is currently about $4MM north of the third line of luxury penalization ($273MM), per Roster Resource. That’s the point at which a team’s top pick is pushed back by 10 selections in the following summer’s draft. Trading Snell and the remainder of his $10MM luxury hit ($3.655MM, as of this writing) wouldn’t drop the Padres under that threshold. Hader ($5.154MM still owed to him) would do so. To be clear, there’s no indication the Padres are endeavoring to drop below that line at this time.

For much of the offseason, the Padres appeared reluctant to cross that third luxury barrier. Many of the team’s late-offseason dealings were structured in convoluted ways designed to tamp down their luxury-tax implications, including their extension of Yu Darvish and signing of Michael Wacha. They’ve nevertheless wound up north of that line and are currently on pace to have next summer’s top pick dropped by 10 spots.

If owner Peter Seidler’s comments earlier this month are any indication, the loss of draft capital isn’t likely to be a deterrent. On July 2, when the Padres were eight games under .500, 11.5 games back in the division and 8.5 games out of the Wild Card chase, Seidler pledged that his team would not “reverse course.” San Diego has played better since that time, going 11-7 and trimming that Wild Card deficit by two and a half games.

There’s an argument to be made that the Padres could explore deals for Snell and/or Hader, prioritizing near-MLB help and simultaneously looking to back-fill the roster with lower-cost rentals. I explored as much in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. Doing so could net talent that would help in 2024 and beyond while simultaneously improving their 2024 draft outlook and at least loosely keeping their 2023 postseason aspirations afloat. That’d be a fine line to walk, however, and the Padres’ postseason chances are obviously greater if they simply hold onto Snell and Hader.

At least for now, that appears to be the front office’s plan. Passan suggests the Padres could look to add to their bullpen and perhaps turn to the farm system if those efforts come up empty.

The remaining handful of games between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline remain worth monitoring. The Friars have their series finale against a free-falling Pirates club right now and will play the last-place Rockies next Monday, the final day before the deadline. That pair of favorable matchups bookends a pivotal three-game set against the AL West-leading Rangers.

If the Padres can pull themselves up to .500 or at least pick up another game or two in the Wild Card hunt, it stands to reason they’ll continue their all-in approach to the current season. On the other hand, a series of losses could conceivably make the front office give more consideration to a soft sell of rental pieces. As with so many clubs around the league, the next few games will be critical in shaping the Padres’ approach to the deadline.

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