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Padres Permit Bob Melvin To Interview For Giants’ Managerial Position

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Padres manager Bob Melvin has been given permission by the team to interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Andrew Baggarly.  “Melvin has emerged as the favorite in San Francisco, with league sources indicating that he received assurances he would be a top candidate before he agreed to participate in the interview process,” Lin and Baggarly write.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

Coaching Notes: Giants, Angels, Athletics

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Bob Melvin’s upcoming interview with the Giants has only increased the speculation that the Padres manager could soon be taking over in San Francisco’s dugout, to the point that Melvin’s prospective coaching staff might already be coming into view.  According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Melvin “would be likely” to bring Padres third base coach Matt Williams along with him from San Diego to San Francisco.  Williams was a four-time All-Star with the Giants during his playing career, and two other former Giants players are also under consideration for coaching roles — Pat Burrell as a new hitting coach, and Ryan Vogelsong as the new pitching coach.

Justin Viele, Pedro Guerrero and Dustin Lind are the Giants’ trio of incumbent hitting coaches, yet given the club’s lackluster offense in 2023, it isn’t surprising change might be coming.  The pitching staff’s results were more up-and-down, yet Slusser notes that pitching coach Andrew Bailey “is extremely well regarded” and has often been considered by other teams for jobs in their organizations.  If Vogelsong did become pitching coach, the Giants could look to retain Bailey as bench coach or as the director of pitching, but Bailey also might prefer a new role with a team nearer to his family on the East Coast.  Vogelsong has been working as a roving instructor within the Giants organization, while Burrell has been the hitting coach for the Giants’ Single-A affiliate.

More on other coaching situations around baseball…

  • The Angels have hired Dom Chiti as a minor league pitching coordinator, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (via X).  Chiti previously worked for Los Angeles as a special assistant and then as bullpen coach from 2020-22, before joining the Mets as their bullpen coach for the 2023 season.  The 64-year-old Chiti has over four decades of experience in a variety of coaching and front office roles with the Angels, Mets, Rangers, Indians, and Orioles.
  • The Athletics are parting ways with bullpen coach Mike McCarthy, Fangraphs’ David Laurila writes.  2023 was McCarthy’s first year on Oakland’s coaching staff, and his first year on a big league staff altogether.  Before joining the A’s, McCarthy spent five seasons coaching for the Triple-A affiliates of the Padres and Twins.

Astros Hoping To Sign Jose Altuve To New Extension

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With Jose Altuve again starring in a deep Astros postseason run, it isn’t any surprise that the club wants to retain its longtime star.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston wants to keep Altuve in the fold for the rest of his career, and the time for negotiating is nearing, as 2024 is the final year of the second baseman’s current contract.

“The Astros privately say their focus is squarely on Altuve,” Nightengale writes, which is perhaps notable simply because Altuve isn’t the only prominent Houston player approaching the end of his deal.  Alex Bregman will also be a free agent after the 2024 season, and Ryan Pressly might also hit the open market since he and the Astros share a $14MM mutual option for 2025 (though this option vests if Pressly makes at least 50 appearances in 2024).  Justin Verlander could also be a free agent if he doesn’t pitch at least 140 innings next season, but if he does hit that threshold, he’ll gain a $35MM player option for 2025 that he might well choose to exercise for what would be his age-42 season.

Of course, nothing is stopping the Astros from also exploring extensions with any of these other players.  However, it could be that Altuve is seen as a particular priority given his status as a franchise icon.  The story of Altuve’s rise from obscure international prospect to cornerstone player has been well-documented, and there isn’t much indication that Altuve is slowing down in his age-33 season.  Though he was limited to 90 games in 2023 due to a broken thumb and an oblique strain, Altuve still hit .311/.393/.522 over 410 plate appearances during the regular season, and he has a .970 OPS over 24 PA in the first five games of the ALCS.

Altuve’s current deal overwrote the last two years of his previous extension with the Astros, and guaranteed him $151MM over the course of the 2020-24 seasons.  Another five-year extension that began with the 2025 season would therefore run through Altuve’s age-39 season, and quite possibly the end of his career.

Estimating a dollar figure for a hypothetical Altuve extension is an interesting exercise, considering that Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation (who also handled the second baseman’s previous deal).  The majority of Scott Boras clients generally head to free agency to let the open market determine their earnings, and Altuve’s performance certainly would seem to still merit a hefty salary even through his mid-to-late 30’s.  That said, it also seems plausible that Altuve might at least consider some level of hometown discount, thus freeing some more money for the Astros to keep the core together.  Besides Bregman, Pressly, and Verlander, there is also the trio of Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Urquidy all nearing free agency once their arbitration eligibility is up following the 2025 campaign.

The Astros have surpassed the luxury tax threshold only once (in 2020) in franchise history, as Houston has been able to sustain its run of success while keeping their payroll in relative check.  While frequently landing within the top 10 of Opening Day payrolls, Houston ranked only 14th in spending at the start of this season.  The Astros have been willing to let some stars walk, such as Carlos Correa after the 2021 season or Verlander last winter (before Verlander was re-acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline).

Other extensions have also played a role in the Astros’ budget management, as the team was proactive in locking up some young stars relatively early in their careers.  Bregman was signed to a five-year/$100MM extension, Yordan Alvarez to a six-year/$118MM extension, and Cristian Javier to a five-year/$64MM long-term pact.  Alvarez, Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. are the only Astros players on the books beyond the 2025 season.

Bryan Abreu Suspended Following Benches-Clearing Incident

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6:16PM: Abreu has officially appealed his suspension, and will thus be available to pitch in Game 6 tonight, as per The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  The appeal hearing will take place tomorrow in advance of a possible Game 7.

TODAY, 11:42am: Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Abreu has not yet officially appealed his two-game suspension. If appealed, the suspension would begin immediately following a settlement with the players’ union or the decision being upheld during a hearing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that Abreu had officially appealed his suspension, and that a hearing would be scheduled for tomorrow prior to a hypothetical Game 7.

Oct 21, 5:31pm: As noted by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, the current CBA stipulates that all appeals of postseason suspensions must be settled within 48 hours. That clause would appear to indicate that Abreu will be forced to serve the suspension during the postseason unless the suspension is overturned on appeal.

Oct 21, 5:00pm: Major League Baseball announced this evening that Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu has been suspended for two games and fined an undisclosed amount for his role in last night’s benches-clearing skirmish between the Astros and the Rangers last night. Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. and manager Dusty Baker were both fined for their roles in the incident, as was Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and right-hander Matt Bush. Both McCullers and Bush will be prohibited from sitting on their club’s bench for the remainder of the ALCS.

Garcia, 30, walked out of the batter’s box slowly after hitting a go-ahead, three-run homer off of Houston ace Justin Verlander. When Garcia returned to the plate during the eighth inning, he was struck on the shoulder by a fastball from Abreu. Garcia dropped his bat and confronted Astros catcher Martin Maldonado about the hit-by-pitch, leading the benches to clear. Abreu, Garcia, and Baker were all ejected during the incident, and the Astros went on to the the game 5-4 after second baseman Jose Altuve hit a go-ahead, three-run homer of his own in the ninth inning.

As discussed by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, neither side was pleased with the handling of the situation following the game. Abreu and other Astros players believing a warning should have been issued rather than an ejection, while Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was displeased with the twelve-minute delay following the incident. Bochy believes the delay could have impacted Texas righty Jose Leclerc, who surrendered the aforementioned game-winning homer to Altuve following the incident.

If Abreu elects not to appeal, he would miss the remainder of the ALCS, and potentially the first game of the World Series if the Astros win Game 6 tomorrow night. Should Abreu appeal, the suspension would be put on hold until the appeal is resolved. It’s not yet clear if Abreu intends to appeal the commissioner’s office’s decision, though ESPN’s Jeff Passan indicates that Abreu is “expected” to appeal and that if he does so, any suspension would likely be postponed until the 2024 campaign.

Abreu has been a key reliever for the Astros all season, with a 1.75 ERA and a 34.8% strikeout rate in 72 innings of work this year. That dominance has carried over to the postseason, where Abreu has 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across seven appearances, striking out eleven while walking just two.

A’s Notes: Front Office, Stadium, Lacob

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The A’s have been frequently compared to the Rays in recent years, as both clubs typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, struggle with attendance issues, and have been the focus of relocation rumors in recent years due in part to dilapidated stadiums. One area where the two teams couldn’t be further apart, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, is their respective analytics departments.

While the Rays run a low player payroll relative to the league’s norms, they’re among the highest spenders when it comes to investing in their analytics department. As noted by Shea, the club had 44 full-time employees in the department during 2023, the most in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Oakland has largely neglected to invest in their analytics department, with their eight-person staff being the smallest in the majors last year.

Shea notes that the club plans to add to the department this offseason with four new full-time hires increasing the total staff to 11 after accounting for the impending departure of advanced scouting analyst Leo Pollack, who Shea relays will not return to the club in 2024. The 11-person staff would still leave them tied with the Rockies and Marlins for the smallest analytics department in the majors. It’s also unclear if the A’s will have any members of the analytics department travel with the team next year, as Shea notes Pollack was the only member of the department who did so in 2023.

Oakland is coming off a brutal 50-112 season that saw it post the second-most losses in franchise history, outpaced only by the 117-loss Philadelphia Athletics back in 1916. The club’s second consecutive 100-loss campaign comes on the heels of a protracted tear-down that saw the club trade away a core of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Murphy, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea that led the club to four consecutive winning seasons from 2018-2021 and playoff appearances in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Those trades have largely yet to bear fruit, though players like catcher Shea Langeliers and outfielder Esteury Ruiz have shown some level of promise at the big league level.

Shea notes that GM David Forst would “love” to have a more robust analytics staff, though payroll constraints have limited the department’s ability to expand much as they left Forst unable to retain Oakland’s core of successful players as the team cut payroll from $92MM in 2019 to just $47MM come 2022 and $56MM this year. It’s certainly fair for A’s fans to wonder if the club could have fared better in 2022 and 2023 if a larger analytics staff had been employed as the club searched for potential trade targets over the past two offseasons.

More rumors from around Oakland and the A’s…

  • Per a recent report from Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Las Vegas Stadium Authority’s board of directors will meet with Athletics brass this week to discuss the team’s planned ballpark. Akers adds that the meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday, will see presentations on community engagement, benefits, and the lease agreement from both the A’s and the project’s construction manager. Though relocation has yet to be put to an official vote among MLB owners, the scheduled vote next month is expected to be little more than a formality, leaving completing agreements with the stadium authority as a primary focus for the club as they continue to pursue relocation. A 30-year non-relocation agreement, financial commitments to the community, terms of the lease, and stadium naming rights are among the topics that Akers notes are expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s meeting.
  • As the A’s continue moving ahead with their relocation effort, a report from Shea earlier this month indicates that Joe Lacob, owner of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, remains interested in pursuing ownership of an MLB club in the bay area even as the A’s prepare to move out. Lacob spoke about the matter at a recent news conference, telling reporters (including Shea) that he’s been “very interested” in acquiring the A’s in the past, and that “if, for whatever reason, (A’s owner John Fisher) decided it wasn’t going to work, sure, we might be interested” in acquiring the A’s and keeping them in Oakland. Lacob also left the door open to a potential bid for ownership of a different MLB team, adding that he “might” be interested if an ownership opportunity presented itself, whether or the A’s or another team.

MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out

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The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Should Andrew Heaney Opt Out Of His Contract This Offseason?
No, remain with the Rangers in hopes of a stronger platform season in 2024. 62.46% (2,146 votes)
Yes, forgo the $13MM salary in search of a higher guarantee. 37.54% (1,290 votes)
Total Votes: 3,436

AL Notes: Twins, Glasnow, Cora

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While the Twins are facing an uncertain payroll situation headed into the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that won’t stop the club from picking up options on second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, noting both options are “expected” to be picked up around the league. That being said, Nightengale also notes that both players figure to be in the center of trade discussions this winter if Minnesota looks to utilize their position player depth to acquire more pitching.

That’s a familiar situation to Kepler in particular, who found his name in the rumor mill both last offseason and again at the trade deadline. After posting below-average offensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022, Kepler bounced back in a big way this season with a .260/.332/.484 slash line in 130 games, adding a plus bat to his reputation as a strong defender in the outfield. A free agent after the 2024 campaign if his option is picked up, Kepler would be an attractive one-year addition for outfield-needy teams that the Twins could afford to part with due to the presence of young outfielders like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.

Polanco, on the other hand, has team options for both 2024 and 2025 that make him a more significant player to part with. The switch-hitting infielder has been a model of consistency when on the field the past few years, with a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in every full season since 2019. That being said, he’s been plagued by injuries the past two seasons, appearing in just 80 contests for the Twins in 2023 and 104 in 2022.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a poll of MLBTR readers regarding whether or not the club should deal Polanco, with 56% of respondents voting that he should be dealt. Effective as Polanco has been, that sentiment in understandable given the club’s cluttered infield mix that features Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien and up-and-coming prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Nightengale adds that the Twins could use Polanco in a super utility, multi-positional role next season if he’s retained for 2024. While Polanco profiles best as a second baseman, he played 15 games at third base this year and spent time at shortstop early in his career as well.

More from around the American League…

  • Ever since right-hander Tyler Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays that guaranteed him a $25MM payday in 2024, speculation has percolated throughout the baseball world that Tampa would look to move him before the final year of that contract. With RosterResource projecting the Rays for a franchise-record payroll of $130MM next year, moving Glasnow would be a viable strategy for the club if they look to get closer to their 2022 level of $79MM. That said, it’s worth noting that the Rays have indicated they’re open to increasing payroll next year and the club’s biggest area of need is the starting rotation. That need would get bigger without Glasnow, who pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 2.91 FIP across 21 starts this season. For his part, Glasnow wants to stay with the Rays in 2024 and beyond. As relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Glasnow spoke glowingly of the organization and its culture while noting the $150MM offer the club made to Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason as evidence that the club could retain him beyond 2024, if they so chose.
  • While Red Sox manager Alex Cora took himself out of the running for the club’s opening atop the baseball operations department early in the club’s search for their next GM, at the time it was believed that Cora would play a significant role in the hiring process as Boston looked to replace ousted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. This morning, however, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam notes that Cora’s role in the process may not be as substantial as previously believed. McAdam reports that a source has indicated that Cora has had very little involvement in the process to this point, though McAdam does note that the Red Sox’s intentions of involving Cora were focused on ensuring a good working relationship between the manager and his new boss. Given those goals, it’s certainly possible Cora could have greater impact on the process once the team has narrowed the field of candidates down further.

Pete Ladd Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Pete Ladd has passed away following a battle with cancer, per an announcement by the Brewers. The Portland, Maine resident was 67 years old.

“We learned today of the passing of Pete Ladd, a key member of the great Brewers teams of the early 1980s,” a statement from the club read, “Pete was a man with a big personality and an even bigger heart. Our thoughts and condolences go to his family.”

A 25th-round pick in the 1977 draft, Ladd was selected by the Red Sox as a relief pitcher and worked through the minors in that role for two seasons before making his big league with the Astros in 1979. Though his initial cup of coffee lasted just 12 1/3 innings of work, Ladd impressed in his limited time with a 2.92 ERA that was 25% better than league average at the time. Ladd wouldn’t appear again in the majors until the 1982 season, when he pitched in 16 regular season games for the Brewers, with a 4.00 ERA in 18 innings of work.

Ladd was tapped to serve as Milwaukee’s closer during the 1982 season due to an injury sustained by Hall of Fame relief arm Rollie Fingers. The right-hander was excellent while filling in for Fingers, pitching 3 1/3 scoreless innings against the Angels during the ALCS and striking out five en route to the Brewers’ first and to this point only World Series appearance in franchise history. Ladd also recorded two outs in the World Series against the Cardinals, working around a hit and two walks to avoid giving up a run during the appearance.

Following the club’s World Series run in 1982, Ladd would remain with the Brewers for three more seasons. That included the 1983 campaign, which turned out to be the best of Ladd’s career. He posted a 2.55 ERA, 48% better than league average for the day by measure of ERA+, and a 2.92 FIP in 49 1/3 innings (44 appearances) while striking out 21.1% of batters faced, though Milwaukee unfortunately missed the postseason that year after winning 87 games and finishing fifth in the AL East.

Ladd, then 29, would wrap up his big league career in Seattle after departing the Brewers following the 1985 season. He pitched well for the Mariners in 1986, with a better-than-average 3.82 ERA in 70 2/3 innings of work across 52 appearances. While he continued his playing career with the Dodgers in 1987, he struggled at the Triple-A level and didn’t crack the club’s big league roster, leading him to retirement following the 1987 season. In all, Ladd appeared in 205 games during his six-year MLB career, recording 17 wins, 39 saves, and 209 strikeouts in 287 innings of work with a career ERA of 4.14.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Ladd’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

Trade Candidate: Harold Ramirez

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As is frequently the case for the Rays this time of year, the club has a sizable class of arbitration-eligible players to sort through this offseason: with 16 players eligible for arbitration this winter, only the Yankees have more. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects that group of players to cost a combined $46.3MM in 2024 if all 16 of them are retained. That could prove to be an untenable situation for the Rays, as RosterResource estimates the club’s projected 2024 payroll to be $130MM, an increase of more than $50MM over this year’s $79MM budget.

While the club has recently indicated that it would be open to increasing payroll next season, it’s unclear to what level an increase would be. Even a substantial increase in payroll could leave the club looking to shave $20MM or more off of its payroll, to say nothing of any potential external additions the club could look into making as they aim to build on a 99-win season in 2024. Given these realities, it seems likely that the Rays will at least shop around some of the players from their deep pool of arbitration-level talent this offseason.

Of Tampa’s group of arbitration talent, just four players are projected to make more than $3MM next year: infielder Isaac Paredes, who is still just 24 years old and enjoyed a breakout season in 2023; right-hander Aaron Civale, the steady mid-rotation arm the club dealt top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to acquire this past summer; outfielder Randy Arozarena, a face of the franchise and former Rookie of the Year who made his first All Star appearance in 2023; and Harold Ramirez, a right-handed slugger the club acquired in a minor deal with the Cubs prior to the 2022 season who splits time between DH, first base, and the outfield corners.

Among that group of four, it seems wildly unlikely that the club would deal Civale after winning the bidding for his services just three months ago. Given his youth, positional versatility, and strong 2023 campaign, it seems more likely that the club would rather retain Paredes as a member of the club’s core rather than trade him away just as he enters his prime years.

While Arozarena may be the most expensive of the group by far with a $9MM projected salary in 2024, the 28-year-old outfielder is under team control through the end of the 2026 season and provides consistency to the Rays lineup. He’s made at least 600 trips to the plate, with a wRC+ of 120 or better, 20 home runs or more, and 20 stolen bases or more in each of the past three seasons. That consistency, power and speed makes Arozarena a key piece for the Rays going forward, to say nothing of his status as one of the most recognizable players on the team.

That leaves Ramirez, who has contributed to the Rays in a big way over the past two seasons. In 869 trips to the plate with the club over the past two seasons, Ramirez has slashed an impressive .306/.348/.432 with a 17.4% strikeout rate, good for a wRC+ of 123. Good as that production is, it’s worth noting Ramirez carries a hefty platoon split; while he was roughly league average against right-handers with a .281/.329/.420 slash line in 310 trips to the plate against them this year, he absolutely crushed lefties to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line in 124 trips to the plate. His career splits are roughly similar, with a .719 OPS against righties and an .816 OPS against southpaws.

Valuable as a lefty-mashing corner bat can be, the Rays are fortunate to be well-stocked in terms of DH and corner options. Yandy Diaz has locked down the first base spot with star-level production the past two seasons, while slugger Luke Raley made a strong impression during his first run of significant playing time this year, slashing .249/.333/.490 with 19 home runs in just 406 trips to the plate while covering first base, DH, and all three outfield spots. This also doesn’t consider young infield prospect Jonathan Aranda, who slashed .230/.340/.368 in 103 plate appearances with the big league club this year and could play his way into a bigger role next season.

Additionally, each of those options has more team control remaining than Ramirez. While the 29-year-old will be a free agent following the 2025 season, Diaz is under control through 2026, Raley through 2028, while Aranda has yet to accrue a full season of service time in the big leagues. Given the club’s bountiful options at the position and Ramirez’s relative lack of team control, he could be the perfect trade candidate for a Rays team interested in lowering payroll to make other additions or even simply in leveraging a valuable asset from a clear area of depth.

In terms of potential suitors, there are several teams that could conceivably be interested in Ramirez’s services. The Brewers and Cubs both have uncertain first base situations headed into 2024, with Rowdy Tellez looking like a potential non-tender candidate and Matt Mervis having struggled through his first cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year. The Cubs, of course, are the club the Rays acquired Ramirez from prior to his breakout in the spring of 2022.

Meanwhile, the Padres could look to add a right-handed complement to Matt Carpenter at DH, with Ramirez as a strong option to fill the role the club hoped Nelson Cruz could fill in 2023. The Diamondbacks and Braves could also find themselves in search of a bat like Ramirez this offseason, in the event Tommy Pham and Eddie Rosario depart the club this offseason. In truth, there’s few aspiring contenders that couldn’t make use of a lefty-mashing corner bat with two seasons of team control remaining, giving the Rays plenty of potential paths in the event they do pursue a trade of the 29-year-old.

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