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Marlins, Kim Ng Part Ways

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11:25 AM: According to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Marlins planned to hire a president of baseball operations this offseason. The new president would have worked above Kim Ng as the team’s top baseball executive. It was this plan of action that led Ng to turn down her side of her mutual option with the Marlins for 2024.

9:05 AM: The Marlins and general manager Kim Ng have parted ways, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It was reported about a month ago that her contract was set to expire after 2023 and it seems that a new deal will not be worked out to keep the relationship going. The club’s chairman Bruce Sherman released a statement on the matter, as relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Herald. It seems the two sides had a mutual option for 2024, with the club exercising their end but Ng rejecting hers.

“We thank Kim for her contributions during her time with our organization and wish her and her family well,” the statement reads. “We will immediately begin a thorough and extensive search for new leadership as we plan to continue to invest in the Marlins organization both on and off the field. We are committed to our fans and the South Florida community and look to build off the momentum of the great progress of this year.” Barry Jackson of the Herald relays that director of player development Brian Chattin will serve as interim general manager during that search.

The departing GM provided a statement to Tyler Kepner of The Athletic: “Last week, Bruce (Sherman) and I discussed his plan to reshape the Baseball Operations department. In our discussions, it became apparent that we were not completely aligned on what that should look like and I felt it best to step away. I wish to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation to the Marlins family and its fans for my time in South Florida. This year was a great step forward for the organization, and I will miss working with Skip and his coaches as well as all of the dedicated staff in baseball operations and throughout the front office. They are a very talented group and I wish them great success in the future.”

Ng, now 54, was hired to be the general manager of the Marlins in November of 2020, which was trailblazing on multiple fronts. Ng was the first woman to be a general manager for a men’s team in any of the four major North American sports and the first Asian-American GM in the history of Major League Baseball.

Since that time, the fortunes of the club have been gradually trending upwards. Though they made the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 season, the two full seasons prior to that saw them win 63 games in 2018 and then just 57 in 2019. The two seasons after Ng’s hiring saw them win 67 games in 2021 and then 69 contests last year. Here in 2023, they hired Skip Schumaker to take over as manager and were able to get all the way up to 84 victories, a strong enough season that they were able to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2003.

The club has had an admirable supply of starting pitching during recent years, with their rotation featuring the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López, Trevor Rogers and Eury Pérez at various times. Those pitchers were all acquired prior to Ng joining the club, but she added to that group by acquiring Jesús Luzardo from the A’s in 2021, sending impending free agent Starling Marte the other way. The surplus of starting pitching was then used to upgrade the lineup, with López traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez, who flirted with .400 for much of 2023 campaign. At this year’s deadline, the club added some more offense by acquiring Josh Bell and Jake Burger, both of whom finished strong as part of Miami’s playoff push.

Every baseball decision maker has their misses and that’s certainly true of Ng. The Avisaíl García deal looks like a big misstep at the moment and the Jacob Stallings deal hasn’t worked out so far. But on the whole, the results have been positive with Ng at the helm. They just had their best season in quite some time and did so with very little margin for error, financially speaking. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the player payroll has been one of the lowest in the league, with their Opening Day outlay coming in 28th, 26th and then 23rd in her three seasons.

The club clearly felt things were going well, since they triggered their end of the mutual option. It’s possible the two sides discussed an extension, but there hasn’t been much public information about that. It’s perhaps worth noting that there have been some changes in the suit-and-tie levels of the Marlins organization in recent years. The club was purchased by a group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter in late 2017. Jeter served as the club’s CEO until early 2022, departing at that time while stating that “the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead.” It was reported after that announcement that a change in spending plans is what caused Jeter to walk away, though others also suggested the relationship between Sherman and Jeter soured for reasons beyond just the financials.

In her statement, Ng also spoke of not being aligned with Sherman in their discussions, much like Jeter. The exact nature of their disagreement isn’t known, but the result is that she won’t be back with the club and will now be free to pursue other opportunities.

It’s unknown if she wants to immediately jump into another job, but there are some current openings. The Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom and have been looking to hire a general manager in recent weeks. Billy Eppler walked away from the general manager position of the Mets recently, though that would be a different situation with David Stearns hired to be that club’s president of baseball operations. The job with the Mets would have far more financial freedom than Ng had in Miami but it’s unclear if she would want to be second-in-command after a successful run as a club’s top baseball decision maker. It’s possible that more gigs will open up if any other clubs decide to part ways with their front office people.

Her plans will surely become more clear in the weeks to come but it’s fair to expect that she will draw interest. The Marlins, meanwhile, will look for a new head of their baseball operations department. Whoever steps into that role will seemingly have to align their vision with Sherman’s and likely work with a limited budget, but there would certainly be some appeal in taking over a club that is just coming off a postseason appearance and in decent shape to compete again next year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Quick Hits: Ng, White Sox, Alvarez, Rodriguez

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The Marlins parted ways with GM Kim Ng earlier today, and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic offered additional details on the situation this afternoon. Ghiroli writes that one of the primary issues between the sides was the club’s decision not to offer Ng a three-year extension rather than simply pick up their end of the mutual option, a practice that Ghiroli notes is “fairly standard” for executives at the end of their current deal who have made significant achievements. Those descriptors certainly seem to fit Ng, under whom the Marlins returned to the postseason for the first time in a full-length season since they won the World Series in 2003.

Beyond the contract dispute, Ghiroli adds that Ng and the club were at odds over personnel decisions regarding the front office, the largest of which was ownership’s previously-reported desire to put a president of baseball operations in place above Ng in the organization’s hierarchy, a move that would effectively be a demotion for Ng. Aside from that, Ghiroli notes that Ng had plans for personnel changes regarding leadership-level positions in the club’s scouting and player development departments, which owner Bruce Sherman opposed.

Ghiroli adds that Ng’s next steps are currently uncertain. While there are GM-level openings in both Queens and Boston at the moment, any GM hired in New York would serve under president of baseball operations David Stearns, creating a similar situation to the one Ng sought to avoid in Miami. Meanwhile, Boston’s GM search has seen a number of high-profile candidates decline to interview for the position, with Ghiroli citing the influence of manager Alex Cora and the club’s proclivity for changes at the head of the baseball operations department as potential pitfalls in accepting the job. One possibility Ghiroli floats is a return to the White Sox, where she began her career in professional baseball and served as a member of the front office for seven seasons. Though the club recently promoted Chris Getz to the role of GM, Ghiroli notes the possibility that the club could have interest in Ng as a president of baseball operations to oversee Getz and the rest of Chicago’s front office.

More notes from around the league…

  • Yordan Alvarez is recovering from a virus, Astros manager Dusty Baker revealed to reporters (including Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic). His symptoms include a headache and an upset stomach, although Baker declined to discuss the exact details of his star slugger’s illness. The skipper said Alvarez was “better today than he was yesterday” and downplayed the significance of the virus, saying “I got a virus, everybody got a virus. So he’s fine.” While Alvarez had a difficult game last night, going hitless with three strikeouts, he hit two home runs off during today’s 5-4 loss to the Rangers. In the event Alvarez does wind up needing a day off at some point in the series, Yainer Diaz and Jon Singleton are among the club’s options who could fill in for the slugger as the team’s DH.
  • According to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays sent scouts to the Dominican Republic recently to observe a workout by Cuban free agent righty Yariel Rodriguez. They were far from alone on that excursion, however, with Topkin adding that fourteen other teams were present to scout Rodriguez. Rodriguez was reportedly released from his NPB contract earlier this month and appears to be in line to test MLB free agency this offseason. Rodriguez did not pitch professionally outside of the World Baseball Classic this year, though in 2022 he was a dominant relief arm for the Chunichi Dragons as he posted a 1.15 ERA in 56 appearances while striking out 27.5% of batters faced.

Latest On The Red Sox’s General Manager Search

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After firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox have seen their search for their next head of baseball operations face plenty of roadblocks, with Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, former Marlins president Michael Hill and former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels among those to have previously been rumored as a potential candidate who have subsequently declined to interview (or, in the case of Hazen, signed an extension in Arizona).

The Athletic’s Chad Jennings adds another trio of potential candidates for the role who have declined an interview, noting that each of Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, Phillies GM Sam Fuld, and Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes have all declined to interview for the position. Fuld and Gomes had both previously been floated as potential candidates, though this is the first time Falvey’s name has come up regarding Boston’s baseball ops vacancy.

That said, it appears that Boston has a number of other potential candidates available. As previously noted, assistant GM Eddie Romero has interviewed for the role, with Jennings noting him as the favorite among potential internal candidates. Plenty of external candidates appear to be under consideration though, with Jennings noting that former Astros GM James Click remains in the mix after being previously reported as a potential option earlier this month. Meanwhile, WEEI’s Rob Bradford indicates that both former Pirates GM Neal Huntington and current Twins GM Thad Levine about the role, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post adding that Levine is expected to interview for the job. Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post puts forth Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow as a potential option.

The wide array of candidates still on the table speaks to Boston’s willingness to consider a number of potential options for the role. Romero, Levine and Breslow all have not yet controlled the helm of a baseball operations department during their careers, though that’s hardly a surprise after team president Sam Kennedy indicated that previous experience as the head of a baseball operations department was not a necessary quality for the club’s next GM. That hasn’t stopped the club from considering more experienced candidates, of course. Several known candidates remaining have considerable experience at the helm of a baseball operations department. Click led the Astros to ALCS appearances in 2020 and 2021 before winning the World Series in 2023, while Huntington helmed the Pirates from 2007 to 2019. Click is currently a special assistant with the Blue Jays, while Huntington currently works in the Guardians front office.

Another experienced potential candidate, of course, is former Marlins GM Kim Ng, who parted ways with Miami earlier today after leading the Marlins to their first full-season playoff berth since 2003 this season. While Ng has been floated as a potential candidate throughout the process, though Jennings notes that it’s currently unclear if the Red Sox plan to pursue Ng at this point.

Angels Outright Six Players

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The Angels have outrighted first baseman Jared Walsh, outfielder Brett Phillips, catcher Chad Wallach, right-handers Jaime Barria and Carson Fulmer, and left-hander Jhonathan Diaz, per MLB.com’s Transactions page. It had not previously been announced that the group were designated for assignment, but each player evidently cleared waivers. Walsh, Phillips, Wallach, Barria, and Fulmer will each now have the opportunity to elect free agency and hit the open market this offseason.

Walsh, 30, is perhaps the most noteworthy of the group. A 39th-round pick by the Angels in the 2015 draft, Walsh made it to the majors in 2019 and broke out in a big way during the shortened 2020 season, slashing an incredible .293/.324/.646 with nine home runs in just 108 trips to the plate. He followed up that breakout campaign with a strong 2021 as the club’s regular first baseman. In 144 games that year, Walsh hit .277/.340/.509 with 29 homers in his first full season of big league action en route to his first career All Star appearance. Unfortunately, things went down hill for Walsh from there. The slugger has struggled with neurological issues in recent years and struggled to be an effective big leaguer as a result, slashing just .197/.258/.355 in 157 games across the past two seasons. Deep as Walsh’s struggles have been in recent years, if he can prove himself to be healthy it’s certainly feasible that a club with a need at first base could give him a look thanks to his significant success in the relatively recent past.

Phillips, 29, made his big league debut with the Brewers during the 2017 season, slashing a solid .276/.351/.448 in 98 trips to the plate for the club. That said, Phillips’s true calling card is his outfield defense, which has allowed him to appear in the majors for each of the past seven seasons of his career despite only posting a better-than-average slash line in 2021 besides his debut season. Though he’s slashed a paltry .187/.272/.347 for his career including an abysmal .152/.230/.269 line the past two seasons, Phillips has managed to bounce between the Brewers, Royals, Rays, Orioles, and Angels throughout his career and could enter free agency as a solid, glove-first depth piece for interested clubs, though it’s possible he’ll have to settle for a minor league deal.

Wallach, 31, made is MLB debut in 2017 and since then has bounced around the major and minor leagues as a depth option behind the plate, with previous major league stints in Cincinnati and Miami as well as Anaheim. 2023 was the journeyman’s first extended big league opportunity thanks to injuries to the club’s typical catching corps of Logan O’Hoppe and Max Stassi, and Wallach performed passably in the role with solid framing numbers and 70 wRC+ that placed him 49th among 69 catchers with at least 100 big league plate appearances this season. Wallach figures to once again receive interest as a potential depth piece for clubs in need of additional catching options this offseason.

Barria, 27, made his MLB debut in 2018 and has spent his entire career with the Angels to this point. His rookie season was an impressive one, as he posted a 3.41 ERA that was 23% better than league average by ERA+ in 26 starts, though his 4.58 FIP left something to be desired. Barria struggled in a swing role in 2019 before bouncing back with a 3.62 ERA and matching 3.65 FIP in 32 1/3 innings of work during the shortened 2020 season. That set off what has become a trend of Barria alternating between struggles and success every other season; while he posted excellent numbers in 2022 with a 2.61 ERA as a multi-inning reliever, he struggled in 2021 and especially the 2023 campaign, during which he posted a 5.68 ERA and 6.07 FIP across 82 1/3 innings of work. Still, given Barria’s relative youth and previous success, it seems like a reasonable bet that he’ll find interest in his services this offseason.

Fulmer, who was selected eighth overall by the White Sox in the 2015 draft, struggled to a 6.41 ERA and 5.93 FIP across 130 2/3 innings for the first six seasons of his big league career while bouncing between the White Sox, Tigers, Orioles, and Reds organizations. After a solid season at the Triple-A level for Fulmer with the Dodgers in 2022, he signed on in Anaheim and return to the big leagues late in the year. He pitched fairly well in ten innings of work, striking out six while posting a 2.70 ERA across three appearances. The 29-year-old figures to once again receive interest from clubs this offseason, though it seems likely he’ll once again be limited to minor league offers.

Diaz, meanwhile, will remain in the Angels organization as a player with less than three years service time who’s just received the first outright assignment of his career. The 27-year-old lefty made his big league debut in Anaheim back in 2021, and has posted a 4.84 ERA with a 4.83 FIP across 35 1/3 innings of work in the big leagues split across the last three seasons. Diaz sports identical 14.4% strikeout and walk rates for his big league career thanks to a brutal 2023 campaign that saw him walk seven batters in seven innings while striking out just four and posting a 10.29 ERA. He’ll remain a decent left-handed depth option for the Angels going forward.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins finally snapped their ignominious playoff drought, breaking an 18-game postseason losing streak by sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. After being eliminated by the defending champions in the second round, they turn their attention to an offseason that could see some turnover among what was arguably the sport’s best rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $10.5MM option on 2B Jorge Polanco ($1MM buyout); deal also includes ’25 team option
  • Club holds $10MM option on RF Max Kepler ($1MM buyout)

2024 financial commitments (assuming both options exercised): $88.025MM
Total future commitments (assuming both options exercised): $358.775MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salaries projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Farmer, Luplow, Alcalá, De León

Free Agents

After disappointing seasons in 2021-22, the Twins returned to October. Minnesota’s 87 wins were enough to handily take the AL Central in another down year. After knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round, Minnesota dropped a four-game Division Series to the Astros. Their efforts to return to the playoffs begin in a couple weeks, with the starting rotation the primary focus.

After years of maligned rotations and quick hooks for starters, Minnesota turned its rotation into an overpowering strength. Only three teams relied on their rotation for more innings. The Twins trailed only the Padres in starting pitcher ERA, while the staff narrowly topped the Rays’ for the highest strikeout rate in the majors.

The team MVP may have been Sonny Gray. The veteran righty pitched to a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He made his third All-Star Game and could secure a top three Cy Young finish for the second time. It was an ideal time for arguably the best season of a very good career, as the 10-year veteran is a few weeks from his first trip to free agency.

Minnesota will make Gray a qualifying offer, which he’ll certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. Gray has spoken positively of the organization, while president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said they’ll remain in contact throughout the offseason. While Minnesota retaining Gray can’t be entirely ruled out, the organization may be reluctant to meet an asking price that should easily top the $63MM secured by Chris Bassitt and could push towards nine figures.

Gray will be joined in free agency by two other Minnesota starters. Dallas Keuchel heads back to the market and likely won’t be retained after posting a 5.97 ERA across 10 outings. More impactful is the potential departure of Kenta Maeda. The 35-year-old has had a strong if volatile few seasons since being acquired from the Dodgers in the Mookie Betts three-team blockbuster. He was the Cy Young runner-up after twirling 11 starts of 2.70 ERA ball during the shortened season. He followed up with an ERA approaching 5.00 in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery towards year’s end. Rehabbing that injury kept him out for all of 2022.

Maeda returned to post a 4.23 ERA through 104 1/3 innings this past season. That’s inflated by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees on April 26, which directly preceded a two-month injured list stay due to a triceps strain. From the time of his return on June 23, Maeda worked to a 3.36 ERA with an excellent 29% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .219/.279/.401 batting line in 88 1/3 frames.

As with Gray, Maeda is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Unlike his rotation mate, Maeda might happily take a one-year deal in the $20.5MM range if the Twins put it on the table. Whether to make him the QO is one of the biggest decisions for Falvey and his front office at the start of the offseason. A full season of Maeda’s second-half production would be well worth that price. Whether he can keep that up for another year is a matter of debate, as he’ll be 36 in April and has a checkered injury history.

The Twins are a mid-market franchise. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they ran a payroll in the $154MM range this year — the #17 figure in the majors. Pending a pair of obvious option decisions (more on those in a bit), they’ll begin the offseason with roughly $88MM in guaranteed contracts for 2024. The arbitration class is projected to tack on around $17MM, although a non-tender of infielder Kyle Farmer would subtract nearly $7MM from that sum.

That should afford the front office some freedom for a lofty one-year salary if they feel Maeda is capable of another strong year. Falvey noted last week that the collapse of Diamond Sports Group — the parent corporation of the Bally Sports TV networks that had carried Twins’ in-market broadcasts — adds some uncertainty to the offseason budget. There’s nothing to suggest the organization is about to dramatically slash payroll, however, and the club did get a boost in the form of four home playoff games this fall.

Whether Gray or Maeda return, three-fifths of the rotation is settled. Pablo López had another excellent year in his first season after being acquired in the Luis Arraez trade. Joe Ryan has a secure hold on a rotation spot despite a rough second half. Righty Bailey Ober had a very strong year to solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm.

Chris Paddack figures to hold the fourth spot. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade just before Opening Day 2022, Paddack made five starts before undergoing the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He was out into September, returning for five relief appearances between the regular season’s final week and the playoffs. Minnesota signed him through 2025 last spring, buying out his first would-be free agent year while giving the righty some stability halfway through his rehab.

The top option beyond that group seems to be right-hander Louie Varland. The 25-year-old (26 in December) has been more effective out of the bullpen than the rotation in his brief MLB career. He had a strong season in the rotation for Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 3.97 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents in 81 2/3 innings. Varland could get a crack at a back-end job out of camp or begin the season in the major league relief corps with the potential to move to the rotation if necessary.

If each of Gray and Maeda walk, Minnesota could go into the middle tiers of free agency for a veteran starter. Players like Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and old friend Kyle Gibson are among the options. Signing a veteran to eat some innings could keep the likes of Varland, Brent Headrick and Simeon Woods Richardson in relief and/or increase the possibility of trading from that group for bullpen or position player depth.

Minnesota’s strong rotation performance is made all the more impressive by the absence of Tyler Mahle. The Twins received just five starts this year from the right-hander, one of their top deadline acquisitions in 2022. That trade turned out to be a major misstep, as both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand look like long-term infielders for the Reds. Mahle battled shoulder issues in 2022 and suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery this May.

That takes him out of consideration for the qualifying offer as he nears free agency for the first time. Mahle should find a two-year deal that gives him up-front security while he rehabs in the short term. A signing team would potentially welcome Mahle back late next season while getting a mid-rotation starter at a below-market price in 2025. It remains to be seen if the Twins would have interest in such an arrangement, which could check in between $15MM and $25MM total.

Minnesota’s bullpen wasn’t as good as the rotation, although it held up well enough. Flame-throwing Jhoan Durán is an elite option in the ninth. Brock Stewart went from unheralded minor league signee to high-leverage weapon. Griffin Jax had a rocky second half but solid peripherals and a decent 3.86 ERA overall. Veteran Caleb Thielbar and rookie Kody Funderburk make for a promising pair of left-handed options.

The Twins could add one more arm in the middle to late innings. Emilio Pagán rebounded from a horrible first season in Minnesota to post a 2.99 ERA while leading the relief corps with 69 1/3 innings. He is headed to free agency, so re-signing Pagán or bringing in another arm to take on that workload should be of interest.

Minnesota’s slate of impending free agents on the position player side is fairly modest. The group is headlined by Michael A. Taylor, who hit 21 home runs while playing customarily strong center field defense following an offseason trade with the Royals. While Taylor’s offensive upside is capped by a poor strikeout and walk profile, the power and glove have made him a low-end regular for the better part of a decade. He should find a multi-year deal this winter.

Taylor’s initial acquisition came as a surprise, since a good portion of Byron Buxton’s value is in his ability to play an elite center field. Buxton battled right knee issues all season and couldn’t play defense, though, spending the entire year as a designated hitter. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery that’ll hopefully allow him to get back on the field in 2024. Given his litany of injuries generally and problems with the knee in particular, Buxton may not be an everyday option in center field at this point.

How comfortable the Twins are with the former Gold Glove winner’s health will play a big role in how they approach the outfield this offseason. Exercising a $10MM option to retain Max Kepler is an obvious call after an excellent second half. The German-born outfielder could return to a regular right field role while offering cover for Buxton in center if Taylor walks. If the Twins aren’t comfortable with Buxton or Kepler assuming regular center field work, retaining Taylor or bringing in someone like Harrison Bader makes sense.

Even if/when they let Joey Gallo depart in free agency, Minnesota will have their typical abundance of left-handed hitting outfielders. The likes of Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon (along with Kepler himself) were the subject of trade speculation both last offseason and at the deadline. Aside from Kepler, Wallner is the only one of the group who has improved his trade value over the past few months.

Kirilloff, who has moved increasingly to first base over the corner outfield, continues to battle injury issues. He spent time on the IL with a right shoulder strain. Continued pain eventually forced him off the playoff roster and will require labrum surgery next week. Kirilloff hit well when healthy — .270/.348/.445 in 88 games — so it’d be a surprise to see the Twins move him while his value is at a low ebb.

Wallner, meanwhile, has settled in nicely as a power bat who can rotate through the corner outfield and DH. That’s the role the organization had envisioned for Larnach, a former first-round draftee who hasn’t hit consistently over parts of three big league seasons. He has performed well despite elevated strikeout tallies in Triple-A and could have appeal to a non-contender that can afford to give him a full season of reps in left field. Gordon, meanwhile, looked like a quality bat-first utility option in 2022 but missed most of this past season with a broken leg.

There’s a similar depth of talent on the infield. The club holds a $10.5MM option on Jorge Polanco, another easy call to exercise. The switch-hitter put together a .255/.335/.454 showing in 80 games and has been an above-average hitter in five of the past six seasons. He can split his time between second and third base. Even if the Twins felt they had enough infield talent to make Polanco expendable, there’d be surplus value on the option. Exercising that provision and trading him is more plausible than declining the option entirely, although the likeliest outcome is simply that they keep him for 2024.

Polanco would split time with a pair of youngsters on the infield. Edouard Julien had an impressive rookie season offensively. He might be better suited for DH or first base than consistent run in the middle infield, but he’ll be in the lineup somewhere.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis seized the third base job with a monster second half, which he carried into the playoffs. Lewis was the Twins’ best player down the stretch and looks like a potential franchise player after returning from a second ACL tear. With five seasons of club control, there’s no urgency for Minnesota to talk extension. Lewis looks like the player the Twins expected when they drafted him six years ago, so they could at least gauge his asking price on a potential early-career deal — as they signed with Polanco and Kepler back in 2019.

Carlos Correa will be back at shortstop. The first season of his $200MM deal didn’t go as planned. Correa had a below-average .230/.312/.399 showing in the worst full year of his career. The two-time All-Star played through plantar fasciitis in his left foot and seemed inhibited for most of the season. They’ll hope an offseason of rest gets him back to his typical level of production.

The combination of Lewis’ return to health and Julien’s emergence could lead the Twins to subtract an infielder. Opening Day third baseman José Miranda has plummeted down the depth chart, although it’s a suboptimal time to trade him coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Farmer and Willi Castro are veteran utility options who are into their arbitration years.

Farmer has the loftier projected salary ($6.6MM against $3.2MM) and played less of a role down the stretch. Assuming the Twins retain Castro, non-tendering or trading Farmer for a minimal return to clear payroll room makes sense. Perhaps they could reallocate that money to Donovan Solano, who hit .282/.369/.391 in 450 plate appearances. He’s headed back to free agency and likely earned a raise over this past season’s $2MM salary. Headed into his age-36 season, he’s likely still looking at one-year offers — whether from the Twins or elsewhere.

There’s little suspense behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers is one of the game’s better catchers. He’ll take the majority of playing time, with Christian Vázquez on hand as a quality #2 option.

Despite the potential loss of this year’s top starter, the Twins are well positioned going into 2024. They won 87 games without much of a contribution from Buxton or Correa and a little more than a third of a season out of Lewis. Even if the starting pitching takes a step back, a lineup that ranked 10th in run scoring this year could push closer to top five with better health from its stars. Whatever they do this winter, they should enter next season as the favorites to repeat in an AL Central that may again be the sport’s least talented division.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Twins-centric chat on 10-17-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Trevor May Announces Retirement

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Right-handed reliever Trevor May announced his retirement from professional baseball on his Twitch channel earlier today. His full comments can be found here. The 34-year-old spent the 2023 campaign with the Athletics, pitching to a 3.28 ERA with a 4.71 FIP in 49 games.

“I have a thousand things that I want to do, a million things… everything that I do outside of the game has just lit me up, and I really enjoy doing it,” May said during his announcement, “I love talking pitching, I love talking about the game, I love teaching people about the game… this is not the end of my relationship with the game of baseball, I just want to go out on my own terms.”

Drafted by the Phillies in the fourth round of the 2008 draft, May made his big league debut as a starting pitcher with the Twins in 2014. His time in the rotation did not go well, as he posted a 5.85 ERA across 26 career stars, almost exclusively concentrated in his first two seasons with Minnesota. After converting to the bullpen in July of 2015, May saw his results improve significantly, as he posted a 3.15 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 34 1/3 innings for the remainder of the season.

That revelation late in the 2014 season led May to convert to the bullpen full-time from 2016 onward, and May went on to be a solid relief option for the Twins over the next five seasons. Though he missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, May posted a 3.76 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 155 2/3 innings of work while striking out 32.7% of batters faced from 2016 until 2020, his final year in Minnesota. The most impressive of those seasons was May’s 2019 campaign during which he posted a sterling 2.94 ERA, 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a solid 3.73 FIP.

Upon departing the Twins, May signed a two-year deal with the Mets. His first campaign with the club went quite well, as he posted a 3.59 and 3.74 FIP in 62 2/3 innings of work with the club as one of the primary set-up men for closer Edwin Diaz. Unfortunately, 2022 saw May struggle with injuries, as a stress reaction in his humerus sidelined him for most of the season. Ultimately, May departed New York following the 2022 campaign having thrown 87 2/3 innings of 4.00 ERA (100 ERA+) ball with a 3.78 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate.

That led May to the A’s, where he received his first opportunity to act as a club’s primary closer, though he had already picked up 12 saves over his years in Minnesota and Queens. After a difficult start to the season, May spent a month on the injured list due to issues pertaining to anxiety. Upon returning just before Memorial Day, May finished the season in dominant fashion with a 1.99 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 40 1/3 innings of work, though his full-season strikeout (19.5%) and walk (14.1%) rates did not reflect his excellent results. Despite the shaky peripherals, May took to the closer’s role with aplomb, going 21-for-22 in save opportunities throughout the remainder of the season.

Altogether, May posted a 4.24 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 450 1/3 innings of work across nine major league seasons. He finished 102 games while picking up 33 saves and punched out 520 batters in just 358 career games. We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate May on a fine career, and wish him well in all of his post-playing endeavors.

Phillies, Aaron Nola Didn’t Come Close To Extension Last Offseason

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It’s no secret that the Phillies wanted to extend Aaron Nola last winter.

Speaking on WIP-FM radio in January, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said an extension for Nola was “something we’d like to do” (as relayed by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He further explained, “We want Aaron to be in the organization for a long time, no question. We love him. We love his abilities. I know he likes it in Philadelphia. So that’s something that will be in our mind… It’s never easy to be able to get done, but we’d love to keep Aaron in the organization for a long time.”

About a month later, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the two sides had exchanged offers, and a few months after that, Jon Heyman of the New York Post revealed that the team’s offer was north of $100MM, although he noted it was well short of the $162MM guarantee Carlos Rodón got from the Yankees in December.

Now, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is reporting that the two sides were never particularly close to an agreement. According to Nightengale, the All-Star right-hander sought an eight-year deal worth over $200MM – significantly more than Rodón’s six-year, $162MM pact. The Phillies, for their part, weren’t willing to go anywhere near that number, instead offering a four- or five-year contract.

It’s understandable why Nola was asking for so much, but at the same time, it’s no surprise the team was hesitant to extend him through his age-38 season. Heading into the 2023 campaign, the righty looked like one of the top impending free agents, perhaps second only to Shohei Ohtani. Ten free agents had signed nine-figure deals the previous winter, and the highest-paid pitchers, Rodón and Jacob deGrom, reeled in $185MM and $162MM, respectively. Nola has never been as dominant as those two pitchers at their best, but he is far more durable, and since his first full season, he has outpaced both in Baseball Reference WAR. Thus, it was always going to take a sizeable guarantee to convince him to forgo free agency.

The Phillies have long been hesitant to sign pitchers to long-term contracts. The largest deal the team has ever signed with a pitcher was a six-year, $144MM extension for Cole Hamels during his age-28 season. Meanwhile, the largest free agent contract they’ve given to a pitcher was a five-year, $120MM pact for Cliff Lee, when the veteran was entering his age-32 campaign. Needless to say, an eight-year, $200MM extension for Nola would have been completely unprecedented for this ball club.

At the same time, the Phillies have been more aggressive with their spending since Dombrowski took over, surpassing the luxury tax for the first time in 2022 and signing a free agent to a nine-figure deal in each of the past three offseasons. What’s more, Dombrowski signed several pitchers to big-money contracts during his time with the Tigers and Red Sox, namely Justin Verlander, David Price, and Chris Sale. Nevertheless, the Phillies and their top baseball executive weren’t willing to meet Nola’s demands for an extension this past winter.

Nola could still be back in Phillies pinstripes next season, but at this point in the year, it’s all but certain he’ll test the waters of free agency first. While his performance in 2023 may have brought down his value (4.46 ERA in 32 starts), he remains one of the most durable starting pitchers in the game. Moreover, his underlying numbers are less offensive than his ERA (3.75 SIERA, 3.77 xERA, 4.49 K/BB), and he has looked phenomenal thus far in the postseason. The 2018 Cy Young finalist should be among the most sought-after righties on the market, along with Ohtani, Sonny Gray, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Indeed, at least one team, the Cardinals, has already expressed interest in pursuing Nola this winter.

Big Hype Prospects: Flores, Manzardo, Bliss, Montgomery, Hassell

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Our coverage of the Arizona Fall League continues. Jakob Marsee remains the top hitter with a 1.442 OPS in 44 plate appearances. The title of top pitcher is less clear. Perhaps it’s 27-year-old southpaw reliever Jake McSteen? He’s worked 4.2 innings of hitless ball with six strikeouts. He hit one batter.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wilmer Flores, 22, SP, DET
(AA) 80.2 IP, 9.15 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Flores performs like someone with a Major League future. He induces plenty of whiffs, limits walks, and generally runs around a 50 percent ground ball rate. Typically, pitchers who can show those three traits go on to have a nice career (health permitting). Sometimes, they have to take the long road like Cristopher Sanchez or Erick Fedde.

My contacts don’t like Flores’ pitch design, though it’s been at least half a year since I’ve received an update on that front. In brief, as of April, his pitches didn’t tunnel well. This is his second stint in the AFL. In three games, all relief appearances, he’s thrown eight innings while allowing nine hits, one walk, one hit batter, one run, and nine strikeouts. Flores is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Barring catastrophe, he’ll soon be on the Tigers 40-man roster. Though he has the look and stuff of a starter, a debut in the bullpen would allow him to ignore those pitch design concerns.

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
(AAA) 415 PA, 17 HR, 1 SB, .237/.337/.464

Widely expected to debut for the Rays in 2023, Manzardo instead turned in a 95 wRC+ for the Durham Bulls. He was traded at the deadline to Cleveland. A lefty-hitter, righty-thrower, Manzardo makes for an unusual first base prospect. At an even six feet tall, he’s on the short end for the position. His discipline- and contact-forward approach isn’t what most clubs crave from the cold corner. Of course, the Guardians are not most teams. They appreciate discipline and high contact rates. It even appears they’ve coached him away from the extreme pulled-contact approach he featured in Durham. He finished the season on a high note for Guardians Triple-A affiliate, batting .256/.348/.590 in 92 plate appearances. In 40 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.390/.657.

Ryan Bliss, 23, 2B, SEA
(AA/AAA) 612 PA, 23 HR, 55 SB, .304/.378/.524

The Mariners acquired Bliss at the trade deadline. He figures to serve a utility role going forward, though he’s only a positive defender at second base. Despite 23 home runs, Bliss has below-average quality of contact. His stolen base total also inflates his speed which is merely above average. The trait that makes him a future big leaguer is his ability to hit breaking pitches. A tiny right-hander, Bliss is susceptible to velocity at the top of the zone. If carefully managed, Bliss could play up in a platoon role. In 26 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .350/.500/.400.

Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
(Cpx/A+/AA) 223 PA, 8 HR, 2 SB, .287/.456/.484

After missing much of the 2023 season, Montgomery bears watching. The White Sox top prospect is among the AFL leaders with three home runs in 35 plate appearances. He’s also yet to record a walk in an OBP-centric league. Even worse, he has 11 strikeouts. My guess is the White Sox sent Montgomery to the AFL to work on power and aggression. He’s always verged on passivity and rarely gets to his power in-game. Strikingly, he seems to maximize for day-to-day performance rather than an eventual Major League outcome. Perhaps these less-than-desirable AFL results represent the proverbial one step back for two steps forward.

Robert Hassell, 22, OF, WSH
(AA) 476 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .225/.316/.324

A precocious fast-riser in the Padres system, Hassell’s star began to dim not long before he was included in the Juan Soto trade. After a little over a year with the Nats, Hassell has scarcely shown a pulse. That extends his .286/.317/.286 batting line in 38 AFL plate appearances. Along with the lack of pop, he also has 11 strikeouts. At the time of the Soto blockbuster, Hassell was a consensus Top 100 prospect. Now it’s hard to find evaluators who believe he has a second act in him. My two cents: he needs to do something to combat his passivity and lift the ball with more authority. That doesn’t mean selling out for power either. Most of his contact is soft and more than half of his batted balls are grounders. Even an increase in line drive singles would go a long way toward him becoming a viable Major Leaguer.

For those hunting for a silver lining, Hassell is credited with gritty-gamer makeup and might have been negatively affected by a hamate injury suffered in the 2022 AFL. Possibly, he’s tinkered in the wrong direction and merely needs a fresh adjustment to get back on track.

Three More

Harry Ford, SEA (20): Ford is disciplined and powerful as evidenced by his seven walks and three home runs in 25 AFL plate appearances. Those dingers represent the total sum of his hitting – he has a .000 BABIP.

Davis Daniel, LAA (26): Daniel is already on the 40-man roster with 12.1 Major League innings to his name. He profiles as a spot starter or middle reliever – the sort that can provide bulk relief. He’s among the top AFL performers with 10 innings, 15 strikeouts, three hits, three walks, and one run allowed.

Jacob Berry, MIA (22): A former sixth-overall pick from the 2022 draft, Berry is a switch-hitting designated hitter who has looked overmatched at every level. The AFL offers him an opportunity to work with new coaches and possibly get his career back on track. Presently, he’s on the exit ramp.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Phillies, Diamondbacks Announce NLCS Rosters

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Game 1 of the National League Championship Series is set to begin this evening at 7:07 pm CT, with Zack Wheeler taking the mound for the Phillies against Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. Both teams released their rosters earlier this morning.

Arizona made a single change from the NLDS, adding Slade Cecconi, an extra pitcher, in place of Jace Peterson, a left-handed bench bat. The D-backs are now carrying the maximum of 13 pitchers on their postseason roster. The NLCS is a seven-game series with only two scheduled off days, so it stands to reason that the Diamondbacks would like an extra arm. Furthermore, manager Torey Lovullo is likely planning a bullpen game for Game 4, and Cecconi, a starting pitching prospect, will provide additional depth for the ’pen. He could even start the game, although his manager would surely keep him on a short leash.

Cecconi struggled at Triple-A this year, posting a 6.11 ERA and giving up 24 home runs in 23 starts for the Reno Aces. However, he looked stronger during a handful of games for the big league club, pitching to a 4.33 ERA in 27 innings. The right-hander is the no. 14 prospect in the Diamondbacks system, per MLB Pipeline.

Peterson, meanwhile, didn’t get much work in either of Arizona’s first two playoff series. The veteran was a last-minute addition to the Wild Card roster after Jake McCarthy suffered an oblique injury, and he appeared in just two games of the NLDS, taking one plate appearance and playing a couple of innings at third base. After coming over from Oakland at the trade deadline, Peterson appeared at the hot corner in 35 of Arizona’s final 55 regular season games. However, Evan Longoria has taken over as the full-time third baseman in the playoffs.

Bryce Jarvis, who lost his roster spot to Kyle Nelson ahead of the NLDS, remains off the roster, as does Tommy Henry, who has been on the IL since July. Lovullo told reporters (including Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com) that Henry was a possibility to pitch in the NLCS, but evidently, the lefty isn’t quite ready to return to action.

The Phillies are running back the same roster they used against the Braves in the NLDS. The only somewhat surprising news is that first baseman Rhys Hoskins remains off the roster. Hoskins has not played since he tore his ACL in spring training. Still, manager Rob Thomson indicated on Sunday that the right-handed slugger could be ready to play, telling reporters (including Jon Morosi of MLB Network) that Hoskins was taking at-bats, running the bases, and essentially doing everything except for fielding ground balls. As Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports, Hoskins will continue his rehab in anticipation of a potential World Series appearance.

The full rosters…

Phillies

Diamondbacks

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