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MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

———————

So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Which Contract Looks The Best For 2024 And Beyond
Trea Turner 43.68% (3,012 votes)
Dansby Swanson 35.43% (2,443 votes)
Carlos Correa 11.54% (796 votes)
Xander Bogaerts 9.34% (644 votes)
Total Votes: 6,895

Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams

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Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.

Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles.  His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.

It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold.  However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer.  Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees.  It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage.  Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.

Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold.  He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season.  Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure.  With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.

Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season.  Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.

However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors.  More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.

This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader.  Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.

East Notes: Nationals, Ciolek, Orioles, Phillies, Rays

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The Nationals have hired Brad Ciolek as their new senior director of amateur scouting, as initially reported by The Athletic’s Keith Law (X link).  Andrew Golden of the Washington Post was the first to report Ciolek’s specific new title, and he’ll work under another new hire in scouting director Danny Haas.  Both Hass and Ciolek worked together in the Orioles’ front office from 2012-19, with Ciolek only just leaving Baltimore after acting as the director of draft operations.

The Talk Nats blog also reported that amateur scout Reed Dunn is close to joining the organization, and Ciolek and Dunn are just two of several new hires within a significantly reshaped player development system.  President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has been looking to upgrade how the Nationals identify and develop young talent, as the latest step in the team’s rebuilding process.  D.C. made some progress with the big league roster in 2023, but with contention still probably at least one more years away, figuring out how to add more quality prospects to the pipeline is of major importance.  Ciolek has plenty of experience on this front, as he contributed to the Orioles’ own rebuild, and the deep core of prospects that now has the O’s in great shape to contend for the next decade.

More from around the NL and AL East divisions…

  • Advancing to the NLDS means that the Phillies will now need a fourth starter, and Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez are set to throw simulated games on Sunday to ramp up their arms for the possible assignment, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes.  Neither pitcher saw any action in the first two playoff rounds, and neither has pitched since September 30, hence the need for some extra warm-up.  Gelb figures Walker might get the official start in Game 4 since Walker has rarely ever worked as a reliever during his career, though both Walker and Sanchez could get some action during the game, perhaps in a piggyback capacity.  The Phillies haven’t yet announced their starters for the first three games, though it is expected to be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez, probably in that order.
  • The Rays announced a series of internal promotions and role changes within their organization on Friday.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the full list, led by Blake Butera becoming the new senior director of player development.  Just 31 years old, Butera will now oversee the Rays’ vaunted player development system just seven years after he was in the farm system himself as a 35th-round pick for Tampa Bay in the 2015 draft.  After ending his playing career, Butera spent five years in the minors as a coach and manager in the Rays’ system, then worked as an assistant field coordinator in 2023.

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT.  Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment.  With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM

Option Decisions

  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall.  Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays.  Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.

It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023.  The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.

Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons.  Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.

The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race.  As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep.  The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.

Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems.  One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement.  However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere.  Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024.  Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022.  Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors.  From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.

With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal.  The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.

Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed.  For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base.  In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off.  Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.

(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention.  As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)

Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base.  Davis Schneider’s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training.  Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.

Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles.  Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing.  By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.

The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular.  Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.

That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line).  With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.

Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out.  Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option.  Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate.  It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.

Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup.  Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong.  The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.

If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out.  Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer.  If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.

Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024.  The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.

Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim.  But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation.  Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year.  For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.

Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters.  The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.

Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign.  Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all.  If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade.  Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.

Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones.  Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought.  To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?

It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere.  Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers.  Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.

As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip?  It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base.  But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable.  Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.

For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.  It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.

Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.”  How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.

Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on.  With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.

Injury Notes: Graveman, Matzek, Hoskins

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Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman was unavailable for the ALDS due to discomfort in his right shoulder, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that, per manager Dusty Baker, Graveman’s injury hasn’t improved enough to join the club for the ALCS against the Rangers. The news is a significant blow to the club’s bullpen depth, as Graveman posted a fantastic 2.42 ERA in 23 appearances with the Astros down the stretch after being acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline this year. That brought his season-long ERA down to an impressive 3.12 figure in 66 1/3 innings of work, though his 4.88 FIP leaves something to be desired thanks to an elevated 12.8% walk rate.

Even without Graveman, Houston is set up fairly well in the bullpen thanks to a trio of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris with whom they can close out games. This is Graveman’s second stint with the Astros, as the club previously acquired him from the Mariners in a deal ahead of the trade deadline back in 2021. He was dominant in the postseason for the club that year, posting a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings of work. Graveman is under contract in Houston for 2024 on an $8MM salary.

More injury notes from around the majors…

  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but David O’Brien of The Athletic relayed that the southpaw should be ready to go for Spring Training in February, according to president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous. Matzek, who is under contract for 2024 with a 2025 club option, was a first-round pick by the Rockies back in 2009, debuted with Colorado as a starting pitcher in 2014 but pitched just 63 2/3 innings in affiliated ball from 2015-2019. He returned to the majors with the Braves in 2020 as a reliever and hasn’t looked back since, with a 2.92 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work with Atlanta. He figures to feature prominently in the club’s late-inning mix next year alongside closer Raisel Iglesias and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter.
  • Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is still hoping to return to the Phillies in time for the World Series after suffering a torn ACL during Spring Training this year. While Rob Thomson told reporters (per MLB.com) that Hoskins has been “moving forward” in his rehab, it seems as though Hoskins’s role will be fairly limited with the club even in the event he’s able to return to the postseason roster. Per Thomson, Hoskins will be used “almost exclusively” as a pinch-hitter if on the roster, as playing him at DH would require the club to move Kyle Schwarber back into the outfield, a move the club isn’t inclined to make. That said, a healthy Hoskins could be a factor in the club’s starting lineup if another injury elsewhere on the roster opened up playing time at DH for him.

MLBTR Poll: Tim Anderson’s Club Option

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The 2023 was a brutal one for the White Sox, who entered the year with postseason aspirations but found themselves as one of the league’s biggest sellers come the trade deadline. The club ultimately lost 101 games in 2023, their second 100-loss campaign in six years. While the club is facing a host of problems, from a pitching staff stripped to the bone by midseason trades to reported clubhouse culture issues, perhaps the biggest reason for concern about the club’s fortunes going forward is the fall from grace of franchise shortstop Tim Anderson.

Since breaking out during the 2019 season, Anderson has been a face of the franchise on the south side of Chicago. From 2019-2021, the young shortstop slashed an excellent .322/.349/.495 (126 wRC+) in 295 games while approaching a 20/20 campaign in both full seasons of that stretch. He led all qualified hitters in batting average during that stretch while playing a solid shortstop, and was a key piece of what looked to be a sustainable White Sox core for the future.

Unfortunately, things started to come off the rails for both Chicago and Anderson himself in 2022. Anderson’s offense regressed somewhat as he slashed .301/.339/.395 (110 wRC+). While he posted a career-best strikeout rate of just 15.7%, that improved contact did not make up for Anderson’s power outage, as he posted a career-low .093 ISO, the 18th-lowest figure of all players with as many plate appearances as him that season. To make matters worse, Anderson was limited to just 79 games by two separate IL stints for groin and finger injuries. While Anderson struggled to stay on the field, the White Sox faltered in his absence, going just 81-81 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

After a downturn in performance for both club and player, both sides hoped for better days in 2023, but those days did not arrive. Amid the club’s worst season since their 106-loss campaign in 1970, Anderson had far and away the worst season of his career. The 30-year-old slashed a paltry .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate, a figure that’s 40% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. His wRC+, ISO, wOBA, and slugging percentage were all the worst in the majors among all qualified hitters, and his on-base percentage also ranked in the bottom five.

Anderson’s brutal season has caused plenty of speculation regarding his future in the White Sox organization. The club holds a $14MM club option on his services for the 2024 season with a $1MM buyout. While the $13MM decision once appeared to be a no-brainer for one of the league’s better regulars at a premium position, the future now appears anything but certain for Anderson and Chicago. New GM Chris Getz recently spoke about the upcoming decision on Anderson, indicating that the decision “deserves an exhaustive discussion” considering Anderson’s importance to the organization in recent years, though he offered no assurance that Anderson would return to the South Side next year.

Further complicating matters is the lack of quality shortstop options on the open market this season. If the club wishes to move on from Anderson, they’ll be hard-pressed to find a clear upgrade in free agency with Amed Rosario and Gio Urshela headlining the upcoming class. Of course, top prospect Colson Montgomery is figures to be the club’s shortstop of the future following a big season that saw him advance to Double-A late in the year. While Montgomery is certainly on the radar for a big league debut as soon as next year, it seems unlikely Chicago would be content to use him as the Opening Day shortstop next year after just 37 games at the Double-A level. Retaining Anderson certainly wouldn’t block Montgomery, as Anderson himself has expressed a willingness to move to second base going forward.

Ultimately, the upcoming option decision leaves the White Sox forced to choose between risking overpaying Anderson for another abysmal year of production in 2024 or risking him returning to form elsewhere when he could’ve been retained on a relative bargain compared to his typical production. How do MLBTR readers feel the White Sox should approach the upcoming decision on Anderson’s option? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Should The White Sox Pick Up Tim Anderson's Team Option For 2024?
No 60.58% (4,012 votes)
Yes 39.42% (2,611 votes)
Total Votes: 6,623

Coaching Notes: Guardians, Nationals, Twins

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Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com recently provided an update on the ongoing search for the next Guardians manager, who will step into the shoes of recently-retired skipper Terry Francona. Hoynes noted that the club has been narrowing their list of potential candidates in recent weeks and has begun interviewing candidates who aren’t still in or recently out of the postseason mix. Hoynes added that while Rays manager Kevin Cash now appears to be rooted in Tampa following speculation he could be a potential target for Cleveland, it’s unclear whether he was ever a serious candidate for the position. Hoynes also notes that Cash, still under contract with the Rays for 2024, would have had to be acquired via trade if he was to become the next skipper in Cleveland.

In addition to previously-known interest in Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and first base coach Sandy Alomar (the latter of whom declined to interview for the position), Hoynes adds that the Guardians will interview minor league field coordinator John McDonald for the position. McDonald played in the majors for sixteen years, including seven in Cleveland, before taking his current position in the Guardians organization. Hoynes adds that the club had interest in interviewing third base coach Mike Sarbaugh, though the long-time member of the club’s coaching staff declined the offer to interview for the position.

More coaching news from around the majors…

  • While the Nationals recently parted ways with several of their coaches, Andrew Golden of the Washington Post reports that at least two familiar faces will return to manager Dave Martinez’s staff next year: pitching coach Jim Hickey and hitting coach Darnell Coles. Golden notes that Martinez himself advocated for Hickey’s return in particular, and that Hickey’s work with the organization’s many young pitchers drew praise throughout the organization. Coles has coached in the majors since 2014, with stints as hitting coach in Milwaukee and Arizona before joining Washington’s staff in 2021. Hickey’s professional coaching career began in 1996, and his first big league role came in 2004 with the Astros. He has since acted as pitching coach for the Rays and Cubs before joining the Nationals following the 2020 season.
  • Following an 87-win season that saw the club capture the AL Central crown and win their first postseason series since 2002, the Twins are bringing back their entire coaching staff under manager Rocco Baldelli, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. While Nightengale notes Minnesota’s MLB-worst 26.6% strikeout rate this year, with Baldelli arguing that the club’s high walk rates and power output in 2023 made up for the whiffs. “You want baserunners, and you want balls hit on the barrel,” he said, “That’s what we want, those two things, above anything else.” Baldelli also noted that the offense would naturally improve next year with healthy seasons from star hitters Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, each of whom dealt with injuries throughout the 2023 campaign.

AL East Notes: Middleton, Santander, Red Sox

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Right-hander Keynan Middleton was one of the only players the Yankees added at the trade deadline this year. While the club ultimately missed the postseason with an 82-80 record, Middleton excelled in 14 1/3 innings of work after coming over in a deal with the White Sox over the summer. The righty posted a sterling 1.88 ERA with a strong 3.26 FIP as a Yankee, bringing his overall season numbers to a solid 3.38 ERA with a respectable 4.20 FIP in 50 2/3 innings between Chicago and New York.

Though Middleton is poised to hit free agency next month, it’s possible that won’t be the end of the union between Middleton and the Yankees. Greg Joyce of the New York Post relayed positive comments from the 30-year-old hurler on his time in the Bronx. Middleton said there aren’t “too many other places” he’s looking at as he prepares to hit free agency, adding that “After being here, I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to be here… I’d love to come back here, but we’ll see what happens.”

The bullpen was a strength for the Yankees this season, though with right-hander Michael King slated to start in 2024 after a dominant year primarily in relief, it’s certainly reasonable the Yankees could look to reinforce their relief corps this offseason. Middleton figures to be joined by lefty relief arm Wandy Peralta and starters Luis Severino and Frankie Montas in departing the Yankees’ pitching staff for free agency this offseason.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has been a frequent target of trade speculation throughout his career as a reliable, quality outfield bat throughout the club’s rebuild. Though Baltimore broke through this season with a 101-win campaign that took them to the postseason for the first time since 2016, it appears rumors surrounding Santander will persist into his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MASN’s Roch Kubatko suggests that given Santander’s hefty expected salary in 2024 (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects him to earn $12.7MM in his final trip through arbitration), Santander could be a topic of trade talks again this offseason. Kubatko goes on to note the Marlins as a team that’s had particular interest in his services in the past. The Marlins figure to once again have an opening in their outfield/DH mix this offseason, assuming Jorge Soler declines his player option for 2024.
  • The Red Sox have been widely speculated to be active participants in the trade market this offseason as they look to rebound from a fifth-place finish in the AL East. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey suggests in a recent mailbag that plenty of the club’s prospects could be made available this offseason in their pursuit of a better season in 2024, with shortstop Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony, and catcher Kyle Teel as the club’s only perceived untouchables. Of course, McCaffrey notes that the current perception could change upon the hiring of a new head of baseball operations to replace Chaim Bloom, who the club fired last month.

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