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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about the postseason, discussing a past transaction, or a forward-looking question to the offseason trade and free agent markets — we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: ALCS, NLCS, Giants’ Manager

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Here are three things we’re monitoring around the baseball world today…

1. ALCS Game 2:

The American League Championship series began last night, with the Rangers taking the first contest. Thanks to 6 1/3 shutout innings from starter Jordan Montgomery and then 2 2/3 scoreless/hitless innings from the bullpen, Texas shut out Houston 2-0 and took a 1-0 lead in the series. Game 2 gets going this afternoon at 3:37 pm Central with Nathan Eovaldi taking the ball for the Rangers. He will be looking to lead the club to victory and therefore bring a 2-0 series lead to Arlington for Game 3. But Framber Valdez will be on the bump for Houston and looking to even the series up at a game apiece.

2. NLCS Game 1:

The second game of the day will see the National League Championship Series begin, with the Diamondbacks and Phillies getting underway at 7:07 pm. A couple of Cy Young candidates will be squaring off against each other, as Zac Gallen is on the hill for Arizona and Zack Wheeler on the other side. Gallen tossed 210 innings in the regular season with a 3.47 ERA and has since made two postseason starts with a 3.18 ERA. Wheeler tossed 192 innings in the regular season with a 3.61 ERA and has since made two playoff starts of his own with a 2.08 ERA in those.

3. Giants managerial search:

There are four clubs with managerial vacancies at the moment, with the Giants, Guardians, Angels and Mets all looking for new skippers. It’s possible the Brewers would make a fifth, with Craig Counsell’s current contract only running until October 31 and uncertainty around whether or not he’ll be back. Of these clubs, the Giants have seemingly been the most active, at least in terms of public reporting. They’ve already interviewed a number of internal candidates, with bench coach Kai Correa, third base coach Mark Hallberg and assistant coach Alyssa Nakken having been questioned about the opening. They are also going to interview former player Stephen Vogt, who served as bullpen and quality control coach for the Mariners this year and played for the Giants in 2019.

Quick Hits: Vogt, Giants, Braves, Phillips, Red Sox

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Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt will interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  The Giants have thus far interviewed only internal candidates about the manager’s job, yet Vogt isn’t exactly a true outsider, having played with the Giants during the 2019 season.  Vogt has plenty of other ties to the Bay Area, as he also played six seasons with the Athletics, and hails from Visalia, California (about a four-hour drive from San Francisco).

Vogt only retired from playing after the 2022 season, and his one season on the Mariners’ staff represents his only coaching experience.  That said, Vogt has been regarded as a future manager for years, so it isn’t surprising seeing him immediately pop up as part of a managerial search even though he is relatively lacking in coaching experience.  All of the candidates linked to the Giants thus far would also be first-time MLB skippers, so clearly the front office isn’t prioritizing a long resume when considering its next dugout hire.

Over 10 Major League seasons, Vogt appeared in 794 games with six different teams.  The big majority (528) of that action came with the A’s, but the Giants rank second on Vogt’s game list with 99 games played.  Vogt also briefly played with the Brewers in 2017, so speculatively speaking, it is possible the Brewers might give him some consideration if Craig Counsell doesn’t return as the manager in 2024.

Some more items from around the baseball world…

  • Some flame-throwing relief help figures to be a target for the Braves this winter, as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that only two bullpens in baseball threw fewer pitches of 96mph or higher than the Braves did in 2023.  Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contributed a big chunk of the high-velocity pitches Atlanta did throw, yet both relievers will be free agents.  With Jesse Chavez also a free agent and Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, and Brad Hand all on club or mutual options, “the situation allows the Braves to rebuild their bullpen, if they want,” Toscano writes.  Rookie Daysbel Hernandez could be an option on the high-velo front, as Atlanta thought enough of Hernandez’s potential to include him on their ALDS roster even though injury limited the righty to 3 2/3 innings in his first MLB season.
  • J.D. Martinez was known to be a Red Sox trade candidate heading into the 2022 deadline, and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Dodgers came “very close” to a deal to land the veteran slugger.  However, talks fell through when the Sox asked for Evan Phillips to also be included in the trade package.  At the time, Phillips was partway through a breakout 2022 season that saw him post a 1.14 ERA over 63 innings, and he went on to another outstanding year as the Dodgers’ first-choice closer in 2023 (2.05 ERA over 61 1/3 frames, with 24 saves).  Since the Dodgers pivoted to adding Joey Gallo at that deadline, it’s easy to wonder if Martinez could’ve or would’ve done more to upgrade the lineup, yet it’s hard to fault the team’s logic in wanting to retain Phillips.  As it turned out, L.A. got the best of both worlds in 2023, with Phillips closing games and Martinez delivering a big year at the plate after signing with the Dodgers as a free agent last offseason.

NL West Notes: Conforto, Manaea, Sewald, Dodgers

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Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea can each opt out of the final year of their contracts with the Giants, with Conforto owed $18MM in 2024 and Manaea $12.5MM.  Neither player has yet decided whether or not they’ll opt out, with Conforto telling NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic that “I think the good thing is it’ll be a hard decision, but I don’t think there’s a bad outcome really.  It will be tough, just because I’m very close with these guys and the uncertainty there could give you a little bit of anxiety, but again, there are a lot of conversations that have to happen before I’m even close to knowing what I want to do.”

Conforto hit .239/.334/.384 over 470 plate appearances in a season shortened by a hamstring injury, while Manaea posted a 4.44 ERA over 117 2/3 innings while working as a starter, long reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Manaea might be the likelier of the two to find a larger deal on the open market, as Pavlovic notes that a multi-year agreement could be possible since teams are forever in need of pitching.  Conforto could remain with the Giants and hope for a better platform year before re-entering the market next winter, though he’d be rejoining an outfield/DH picture that already looks crowded, and the Giants might still be making more moves to the outfield to add both athleticism and hitting pop.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Paul Sewald has proven to be one of the trade deadline’s most impactful moves, as The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie writes that the Snakes’ once-unsteady bullpen has turned into a strength.  From August 19 until the end of the regular season, Arizona relievers combined for a 2.94 ERA, with Sewald himself delivering a 2.84 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in that stretch, closing out nine of 10 save chances.  As noted by Mackie and D’Backs GM Mike Hazen, establishing Sewald as the closer allowed the team to stick to a pretty set formula for their bullpen usage, and this routine has helped the Diamondbacks both reach the playoffs and advance to the NLCS.
  • The Dodgers’ roster is broken down by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, with an eye towards whether or not several players could be back in Los Angeles in 2024.  Among the free agents, Hoornstra likes the chances of a reunion with Enrique Hernandez, as the utilityman’s multi-positional ability could help add depth if a DH-only player (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) were to join the roster.  On the other hand, David Peralta is basically limited to just left field and only against right-handed pitching, so it seems like L.A. might prefer internal options.  There also seems to be a chance the Dodgers will re-sign Jason Heyward, which could make Peralta further “redundant” since Heyward is also a left-handed hitter and a more versatile outfielder.

Giants Interview Alyssa Nakken For Manager’s Job

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The Giants’ managerial search has mostly been focused on internal candidates thus far, and another in-house name has now been added to the list, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports that assistant coach Alyssa Nakken has interviewed in regards to the managerial vacancy.

Nakken has been a member of San Francisco’s organization since 2014, starting as an intern and then working in “a hybrid role within the front office that included event logistics, business development and coordinating health and wellness initiatives,” Baggarly writes.  This paved the way for Nakken’s hiring as an assistant coach prior to the 2020 season, making her the first woman to be part of a Major League team’s coaching staff.  Continuing this trailblazing path, Nakken is now the first woman known to ever formally interview to be a Major League manager.

The Giants assembled an unusually large coaching staff under former manager Gabe Kapler, as Nakken was one of 13 coaches assembled to provide players with a wide variety of personalized assessment.  Baggarly notes that Nakken’s duties focused on in-game planning, baserunning, and outfield instruction.

Beyond the obvious historic significance of what her hire would mean, the Giants’ interest in Nakken also continues the team’s apparent preference towards a first-time manager.  None of the internal names (bench coach Kai Correa, third base coach Mark Hallberg, adviser and former third base coach Ron Wotus, and catching bullpen coach Craig Albernaz) who have interviewed or are on the radar for interviews have ever managed at the MLB level before, apart from Correa’s three games as interim manager this season after Kapler was fired.  Hallberg and Albarnaz have managed a couple of years in the minors, while Wotus has seven seasons of minor league managing but not since 1997.

Kapler wasn’t a first-time manager when hired by the Giants in 2020, as he had previously been the Phillies’ skipper for the previous two seasons.  However, Kapler did fit the modern style of a younger, more analytically-inclined manager who works closely with the front office in shaping game-day strategies.  With all of San Francisco’s known candidates except Wotus fitting this general description, it would seem that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is leaning towards a first-time hire, and perhaps someone already familiar with how the Giants operate.  Beyond just the in-house names, Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker has also been mentioned as person of interest in the Giants’ search, and Ecker worked as the Giants’ hitting coach in 2020-21 before moving on to Texas.

Michael Harris II Has Built On His Rookie Of The Year Campaign

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The breakout performance of center fielder Michael Harris II was one of the most exciting storylines for the Braves last season. The 21-year-old rookie was called up to the big leagues at the end of May in 2022 and never looked back, slashing a fantastic .297/.339/.514 in 441 trips to the plate while swiping 20 bases and playing excellent defense in center field. That performance earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors in addition to a few downballot MVP votes, despite the youngster only appearing in 114 games that season.

The Braves saw enough in Harris’s performance to ink the youngster to an eight-year, $72MM extension before his rookie season had even come to a close, and it’s easy to see why. After all, Harris’ 134 wRC+ ranked in the top-25 among all major league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, and his defense in center field was nothing short of superlative. Only Victor Robles, Myles Straw, and Michael A. Taylor outperformed Harris’s +8 Defensive Runs Saved last year among center fielders, while his +7 Outs Above Average left Harris tied with Cody Bellinger and Alek Thomas for sixth-most among center fielders with at least 250 attempts last year.

That being said, there were potential red flags in Harris’s profile last season that made it fair to wonder if he could replicate his excellent offensive season going forward. Of those, the biggest one was perhaps his strikeout rate. Of the 36 players who posted a wRC+ higher than 130 last season (min. 400 PA), just three of them struck out more often than Harris’s 24.3% rate: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. Harris, who hit 19 home runs in 2022 and posted an ISO of just .217, did not have the titanic power of that aforementioned trio with which to make up for his swing and miss tendencies. In addition, Harris’s 4.8% walk rate was by far the lowest of the bunch. In fact, Harris actually ranked in just the 11th percentile in all of baseball last year in terms of walk rate, per Statcast.

It’s easy to see why Harris was striking out so much. Harris swung at a whopping 41.7% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone while making contact on just 59.7% of those swings. Only Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, and Michael Chavis swung and missed at more pitches outside of the zone last year. Harris’s free-swinging approach isn’t helped by pitches in the zone much, either. The youngster posted a roughly average 67.9% swing rate on pitches inside the zone, and his 86.2% contact rate on pitches in the zone was actually slightly below league average last year. Between Harris’s reckless swing decisions and middling power numbers, it was easy to see how he could regress significantly headed into 2023. Advanced metrics agreed with that assessment, as Harris’s .368 wOBA noticeably outstripped his .335 xwOBA in 2022.

Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared that Harris was indeed destined for a serious sophomore slump. After missing most of April due to a back injury, Harris looked brutal at the plate through the beginning of June. In his first 138 plate appearances of the season, Harris posted a brutal .163/.246/.244 slash line with a 25.4% strikeout rate and just two home runs. That being said, he was still playing his typical excellent defense and had an uncharacteristically low .207 BABIP. That was enough for the Braves to stick with their struggling youngster despite his abysmal start with the bat.

The club’s patience paid off, as Harris hit a phenomenal .335/.360/.552 the rest of the way. That impressive slash line is good for a 142 wRC+, the sixteenth-best figure in the majors over that span and on par with the likes of Bellinger and Bryce Harper. Perhaps most exciting is Harris’s improvement in terms of strikeout rate, as he punched out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances during that 100-game stretch. While Harris continued to swing too often- his 42.3% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was ninth-highest in the majors, even during that torrid stretch- he made far more contact on those swings. Harris made contact on a whopping 69.8% of swings on pitches outside the strike zone while posting a 89.1% contact rate on pitches in the zone.

Taken together, Harris’s improvements in contact rate allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 18.7% on the year good for the 71st percentile among qualified hitters. Though his cold stretch to open the year left his overall season numbers to fall short of his rookie season, as he posted a wRC+ of just 115 on the year, Harris’s peripherals in 2023 are a far better match for his production, indicating he should be able to sustain this level of offensive production going forward. In fact, Harris’s .345 wOBA in 2023 is actually ten points lower than his .355 xwOBA, indicating there could even be a small amount of positive regression in Harris’s future, if he’s able to build on his improved contact rates in 2024.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Giants, Lovullo, Angels

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The Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill to head their baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale relays that Hill has “no interest” in leaving his role as MLB’s senior vice president of on-field operations to return to work in a front office. Hill is the latest potential candidate to decline to interview for the position, joining former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Arizona GM Mike Hazen.

Nightengale adds that while the Red Sox have (as previously reported) interviewed assistant GM Eddie Romero for the position, the favorite to take over for Chaim Bloom as the club’s chief baseball officer could be Phillies GM Sam Fuld. It’s unclear to this point if Fuld has interviewed for the position. He’s under contract with the Phillies through 2025 after signing an extension last winter, meaning the Phillies would have to grant the Red Sox permission to interview Fuld for the role. That being said, it’s somewhat rare for organizations to stand in the way of their personnel interviewing for a potential promotion as this would be for Fuld, who serves as the club’s second-in-command to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who previously helmed the Red Sox from 2015 to 2019.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Nightengale adds that the Diamondbacks are expected to offer manager Torey Lovullo a multi-year contract extension this winter. That’s hardly a surprise, seeing as Hazen, who the club recently extended through 2028, previously indicated that the club could look to retain Lovullo beyond the 2024 campaign in the event that Arizona went on to make the postseason. The DBacks, of course, have done far more than that, making it all the way to the NLCS after sweeping the Brewers in the Wild Card series and the Dodgers in the NLDS.
  • FanSided’s Robert Murray noted yesterday that Giants bench coach and interim manager Kai Correa has been interviewed for the club’s vacant manager seat. Correa joins third-base coach Mark Hallberg as the only known candidates to interview for the position. Correa, 35, began his coaching career immediately after graduating college in 2010. He spent four seasons with his alma mater, University of Puget Sound, and another four seasons coaching for the University of Northern Colorado. His first professional coaching role came with Cleveland in 2018, for whom he served as an infield coach in the Arizona Complex League. He stayed with the organization in 2019 before joining the Giants ahead of the 2020 season in his current role as bench coach.
  • Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently noted that the Angels, who have been reported to have mutual interest with Buck Showalter regarding the club’s managerial vacancy, are seeking a veteran manager for the 2024 campaign. While Showalter certainly fits that description, another candidate Heyman puts forth is Darin Erstad, who played for the Angels in 11 major league seasons and in retirement served as the head coach for University of Nebraska, with whom he spent eight seasons in the role.

Zach Plesac Files For Free Agency

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Right-hander Zach Plesac recently filed for free agency, according to his player profile on MLB.com. Plesac, 28, struggled to a 7.59 ERA and 4.47 FIP across five starts with the Guardians this season before being designated for assignment back in June. His struggles continued at the Triple-A level after he accepted an outright assignment, with the righty posting a 6.08 ERA in 19 appearances for the club’s affiliate in Columbus.

Plesac made his major league debut in 2019 and had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter, with a 3.81 ERA (126 ERA+) across 21 starts in his rookie season, though his 4.94 FIP and lackluster 18.4% strikeout rate both left much to be desired. During the shortened 2020 season, Plesac took a significant leap forward, with an incredible 2.28 ERA that was 96% better than league average by measure of ERA+ and a strong 3.39 FIP. In the shortened season, Plesac’s peripherals caught up to his performance as he struck out 27.7% of batters faced while walking just 2.9%.

Headed into the 2021 campaign, Plesac looked like he’d be a stalwart of Cleveland’s rotation for years to come. That did not come to pass, however, as Plesac reverted to his previous, low-strikeout rate form in 2021 and beyond. Unlike 2019, however, his results fell back down to Earth alongside his peripherals, leaving him with a 4.49 ERA (90 ERA+) and a 4.59 FIP across 274 1/3 innings between 2021 and 2022. During that time, he struck out a measly 17.2% of batters faced, the fifth-worst punchout rate among starters with at least 250 innings pitched between the two seasons.

Now that Plesac has elected free agency, he’ll be able to look for the chance to continue his career with any of the 30 big league clubs. Given his brutal results both in the majors and at Triple-A this year, it’s hard to imagine him finding anything better than a minor league offer with a contender. That said, it’s at least feasible that a team without hope of contending next season could offer Plesac a spot in the Opening Day rotation given the upside he flashed early in his career, his relative youth, and the fact that he could be controlled beyond the 2024 campaign.

If such an offer doesn’t materialize, Plesac could be one of the more interesting depth starters to be had on a minors pact this winter. After all, even his considerably diminished performance in 2021 and 2022 was just below league average for a starting pitcher, and even a contending club could do far worse than Plesac if looking for a stopgap option to cover for a midseason rotation injury. Further adding to his value on the open market is the fact that Plesac has minor league options remaining, meaning an interested club could shuttle him from the majors to Triple-A throughout next season without exposing him to waivers.

Astros, Rangers Announce ALCS Rosters

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Game 1 of the AL Championship Series is scheduled for this evening, with the Rangers taking on the Astros in Houston at 7:15pm CT. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA) will take the mound for the Astros opposite southpaw Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA). Both clubs have announced their 26-man rosters for the upcoming series.

The most noteworthy inclusions on these rosters are Texas right-handers Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, both of whom were seen as possibilities for the ALCS but not guaranteed due to health issues. Scherzer has been working his way back from a teres major strain since mid-September, while Jon Gray has been on the shelf in recent weeks with forearm tightness. Scherzer is expected to join a starting group for the Rangers that already contains Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi, with some combination of Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning rounding out the group.

Gray, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen as a potential multi-inning option alongside Martin Perez. Departing the roster in deference to the two veterans are lefty Brock Burke, who allowed two runs on one hit and one walk while recording just one out during the ALDS, and Matt Bush, who has not made an appearance during the postseason this year but was also on the club’s ALDS roster.

Meanwhile, Houston’s roster features less intrigue. Right-hander Kendall Graveman was held off the roster due to ongoing shoulder troubles, as previously expected. The only change from the club’s ALDS roster is the addition of Ronel Blanco, who posted a 4.50 ERA and 5.99 FIP in 17 starts for the Astros this season and gives the club an additional multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder Jake Meyers, who did not appear during the ALDS against the Twins.

The rosters…

Astros

Rangers

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