Archives for 2023

Dallas Keuchel Has Second Opt-Out Date In Twins Deal

By Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams | July 25, 2023 at 11:50am CDT

July 25: Keuchel’s contract with the Twins contains a second out clause on the day of the trade deadline, MLBTR has learned. That likely played a significant factor in his decision to forgo the first opportunity; he can continue pitching with the Twins’ Triple-A club for now and then decide on his second opt-out once he has a clearer idea which teams might need immediate rotation help in the wake of the trade deadline.

In the meantime, the veteran lefty continues to pitch well. He tossed six shutout innings in his most recent start for the Saints and is now sporting a 0.69 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 60.5% grounder rate in 26 innings with the Twins’ Triple-A club.

July 21: Keuchel will not trigger his opt-out clause, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link). He’ll remain with St. Paul and will not occupy a spot on the Minnesota 40-man roster for the time being.

July 19: Left-hander Dallas Keuchel signed a minor league deal with the Twins about a month ago and it seems they will have to soon make a decision about whether or not to give him a roster spot. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the southpaw can opt out of that deal on Friday.

Keuchel, 35, was once one of the better pitchers in the league, winning the American League Cy Young award in 2015 by posting a 2.48 earned run average over 232 innings for the Astros. He continued to serve as an effective starter for years after that, even registering a tiny 1.99 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. The two years after that were rough, however, as his ERA shot up to 5.28 in 2022 and then a grisly 9.20 mark last year.

Those struggles last year saw him bounce from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks and the Rangers, as each club tried and failed to capture the previous form of Keuchel. He got some interest as a free agent this winter but ultimately lingered on the open market until last month, when the Twins signed him. At that point, it was noted that Keuchel had been working with Driveline Baseball in order to restore some of his lost velocity and movement.

If the recent results are any indication, the revamp of his arsenal is working. Since joining the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, Keuchel has tossed 20 innings over four starts with a 0.90 ERA. His 19.8% strikeout rate isn’t especially impressive, but the lefty has always been a grounder specialist and is keeping the ball in the dirt at a 55% clip so far this year.

The Twins’ rotation currently consists of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Pablo López, Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray, all of whom are generally pitching well to various degrees this year. Maeda is the only one with an ERA above 4.25, and his 5.50 mark is largely skewed by a miserable 10-run outing just before he landed on the injured list. Since getting healthy and returning, he has a 2.70 ERA in four starts.

That could make the decision somewhat difficult for Minnesota, as they may not have an immediate need for Keuchel but they also might not want him to get away. Given his past track record and his strong results this year, he could surely find another opportunity elsewhere if he were to trigger that opt-out.

Poll: Should The Mariners Trade Teoscar Hernández?

By Darragh McDonald | July 25, 2023 at 11:30am CDT

The Mariners are one of many teams in an awkward spot right now. After breaking their postseason drought last year, they had hoped for another competitive season in 2023, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far. They have played 100 games and are currently 50-50, putting them fourth in the American League West, 8.5 games back of the Rangers while also trailing the Astros and Angels. They are 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in between.

That doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost, as those are surmountable obstacles (particularly the Wild Card chase). But their chances aren’t great at the moment, with the playoff odds at FanGraphs currently giving them an 11.6% chance of getting in while Baseball Prospectus has them at just 8.2%.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto discussed the club’s tough position last week, admitting that the Mariners have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end” and might have to decide whether it is “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.” He went on to say they probably wouldn’t make any big splash like last year’s Luis Castillo acquisition and that selling is on the table because they always have “one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller.”

There won’t be any need for the M’s to completely tear their roster down to the studs. The 2024 team will still feature a strong pitching staff, as their collective 3.80 earned run average is one of the five best in the majors and none of their hurlers are slated to reach free agency this winter. On the position player side, they will still be able to count on a core that consists of Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France and J.P. Crawford. They would have some offseason work to do, but there are enough ingredients there for them to see a path towards better results next year.

But as Dipoto mentioned, they may need to think about doing some selling, even if it’s not a total rebuild. The club has some impending free agents, but most of them won’t have much appeal. AJ Pollock is hitting just .173/.225/.323 and just landed on the injured list, while Kolten Wong’s offense is even worse at .162/.244/.229. Tom Murphy is hitting well this year but in a part-time backup role, and midseason trades of catchers can be tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff.

They have one other impending free agent in Teoscar Hernández, which presents a difficult case for the club. He was just acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, with the M’s sending Erik Swanson and Adam Macko to Toronto for Hernández’s final arbitration season. His 2023 performance isn’t quite as rough as Pollock’s or Wong’s, but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless. Through the end of May, he was hitting .230/.268/.396 for a wRC+ of 85. He took off in June, slashing .303/.376/.573 for a 162 wRC+, but he’s crashed back to earth in July with a line of .203/.259/.316.

Overall, Hernández has a season-long batting line of .242/.293/.421. That amounts to a wRC+ of 99, indicating he’s been just a hair below league average. But the Mariners were surely hoping for something better than just average, especially because Hernández slashed .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+.

Defensive metrics have never like Hernández much, but are being kinder in 2023. He has -18 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but +7 this year. Outs Above Average has him at +2 in 2023 but -22 overall. His Ultimate Zone Rating is -18.3 for his career but 3.7 this year. Defensive metrics tend to be fickle from year to year, so it’s more likely this is a blip than that he’s suddenly turned himself into an above-average defender in his age-30 season. But he definitely has a bit of speed, having swiped 40 bags in his career and five this year.

If Hernández were playing up to his previous form, he would be a lock to both receive and reject a qualifying offer. In that case, the Mariners could have simply held onto him and taken their shot at contention, at least knowing that they could recoup a draft pick if he were to sign somewhere else. Now it’s less clear, since he’s performing closer to an average major leaguer. He might be tempted to take a QO and try to re-enter free agency after a stronger platform in 2024.

Spending roughly $20MM, which is where the QO will likely end up, on a player like Hernández wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for the Mariners. Pollock and Wong departing will take $17MM off the books, and Hernández himself is making $14MM this year. But they will also see Castillo’s salary jump from $10MM this year (plus a $7MM signing bonus) to $22.75MM next year. Rodríguez will see his salary climb from $4MM to $10MM. Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Dylan Moore and Andrés Muñoz will also get raises in their contracts, and arbitration raises will be due to players like France and Paul Sewald.

Like just about every club, the Mariners will be hoping to keep their options open for Shohei Ohtani this winter, not to mention all the other potential free agents. Perhaps the prospect of putting close to $20MM in front of Hernández on day one of the offseason isn’t as attractive as it once seemed a few months ago.

But despite his middling season, he might still have significant trade appeal. The lists of upcoming free agents and potential trade candidates are both heavy on pitching, with few impact bats thought to be available. Perhaps some clubs around the league believe in Hernández enough to bet on a bounceback, especially with the dearth of other available options. His walk rate and hard hit rate are both down this year, but his rate of fly balls turning into home runs is also a big drop, sitting at 16.2% this year compared to 23.2% in the previous three seasons. Maybe moving away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help him get back on track.

Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s likely a tricky decision for Dipoto and his team. If they decide that 2023 isn’t their year, then trading him is probably the best thing to do since he’s an impending free agent and can’t help you next year. If he were to accept a qualifying offer, they’d essentially be back to square one but with a larger financial commitment for 2024. If there’s a compelling offer on the table now, perhaps it’s better to just take that and start focusing on next year’s club.

On the other hand, they are already working with an uninspiring offense. The Mariners’ collective batting line of .231/.311/.391 amounts to a wRC+ of 100, or exactly average. The corner outfield spots are a particular issue, given the struggles of both Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. The latter of those two cooled off after a hot start and recently put himself out of action for the next four to six weeks by kicking a water cooler and breaking a bone in his foot.

Subtracting Hernández from the corner outfield mix would only make matters worse, and the Mariners would then be looking to replace him in right field while facing the same weak market as every other club in the league. Although the club made the postseason last year, that’s still just one playoff appearance since 2001. If they were to hold Hernández and he gets hot for the final months of the season, he could help them compete and perhaps even get enough juice to reject a qualifying offer and net the club an extra draft pick.

Trading Hernández also comes with the risk of intangible results, in a negative way. Teams have often tried to balance buying and selling and been surprised by the effect it had on the clubhouse. The Brewers trading Josh Hader last year was one such example, but the same thing happened to the Mariners the year before. They traded closer Kendall Graveman and reliever Rafael Montero to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith. They later backfilled their closer spot by acquiring Diego Castillo, hoping that the Castillo/Toro combination would be better than Graveman himself. But it didn’t work out and the club missed the playoffs as the Graveman trade had a negative impact on the club’s spirits, something Dipoto addressed in the link above.

Perhaps trading Hernández would hurt the club both on the field and in the dugout. The Mariners likely wouldn’t care so much about that if they were well out of contention and firmly in the seller camp. But if they are trying to strike a balance between buying and selling, the downside of the trade is higher than the upside, though that would surely depend on the offers. The Hader trade certainly hurt the Brewers last year but they were later able to trade one of the pieces in that deal, Esteury Ruiz, for catcher William Contreras. He’s having an excellent season and seems to be a long-term piece for Milwaukee, who are in first place in the National League Central.

We’ll open this one up for debate among MLBTR readers. Should the Mariners risk punting their season by sending Hernández elsewhere and taking whatever pieces they can get to help them in future seasons? Or, should they hold and hope for a late surge to get back in the race and cement his status as a QO recipient? Have your say in the poll below!

(Link to poll for app users)

Should the Mariners trade Teoscar Hernández?

Yes 65.59% (4,456 votes)

No 27.02% (1,836 votes)

I don't know 7.39% (502 votes)

Total Votes: 6,794

Marlins Acquire Jose Castillo From Padres

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2023 at 11:05am CDT

The Marlins have acquired left-handed reliever Jose Castillo from the Padres in exchange for cash, per a team announcement. Castillo, whom the Padres designated for assignment last week, has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami had an opening on its 40-man roster, so a corresponding transaction isn’t necessary.

The 27-year-old Castillo had a strong debut with the Padres back in 2018 but has been clobbered with injuries since that time. His 2019 season ended after just two-thirds of an inning due to a torn ligament in his hand. He missed the shortened 2020 season due to a lat strain and had the bulk of his 2021-22 campaigns wiped out following Tommy John surgery.

Castillo logged a sharp 3.23 ERA in his first 39 big league innings, fanning 35.1% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. However, he’s pitched just two big league innings since the start of the 2019 campaign due to that litany of injuries.

Castillo did return to the mound in the minors last season, notching a tidy 2.59 ERA in 48 1/3 innings between Class-A and Triple-A. However, he’s been rocked for a 9.82 ERA in 18 1/3 Triple-A frames so far in 2023 and surrendered four runs in just one-third of an inning in his lone MLB appearance this year.

This is Castillo’s final minor league option season, so he’ll need to establish himself as a viable big league bullpen option before season’s end or else be at risk of being subtracted from the 40-man roster this offseason. He’s already over three years of Major League service time — most of it spent on the injured list — so he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and would be a clear non-tender candidate if he can’t take a step forward in his new organization. And, because he has more than three years of service, he’d become a free agent at season’s end if he’s outrighted before that time.

Pirates To Select Alika Williams

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2023 at 11:02am CDT

The Pirates are selecting the contract of infield prospect Alika Williams from Triple-A Indianapolis, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The 24-year-old will be making his MLB debut whenever he takes the field.

Williams, acquired from the Rays in the trade that sent righty Robert Stephenson to Tampa Bay, was the No. 37 overall draft pick by the Rays in 2020. After a tough stretch in Double-A with the Rays, where he hit .237/.314/.417 (93 wRC+) in 175 plate appearances, Williams is batting .305/.384/.531 (126 wRC+) in 148 Triple-A plate appearances with the Bucs. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 19.4% in Double-A to 14.9% in Triple-A, while his walk rate has crept up from 8.4% to 10.1%.

Scouting reports on Williams have typically pegged him as a glove-first option at shortstop with plus speed and minimal power. He’s popped a career-high 12 home runs in the minors this season, however, adding another 19 doubles and a triple. On the basepaths, he’s 6-for-8.

If he’s able to continue that surprising power output at the big league level, it’s possible Williams could eventually outperform the generally modest expectations that peg him as a potential utility infielder at the big league level. Even if he winds up as more of a contact- and defense-oriented infielder, however, his glove at short and ability to handle either second base or third base would give him a good chance to carve out a spot on a big league bench.

The Bucs are dealing with a potential injury of note for utilityman Tucupita Marcano, as Justice de los Santos of MLB.com tweeted last night that Marcano was pulled from the game with what appears to be a ligament injury in his knee. If Marcano is indeed headed to the injured list, Williams could step into his bench spot and see occasional work around an infield that’s currently relying on young options like Jared Triolo (25), Nick Gonzales (24) and Liover Peguero (22) at third base, second base and shortstop while starters Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz are on the injured list.

Athletics’ Sam Moll Drawing Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2023 at 9:54am CDT

A’s lefty reliever Sam Moll has drawn trade interest and could be moved before next week’s deadline, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Outside of the organization’s best prospects and young players, virtually any player on the Oakland roster figures to be fair game in a potential trade. That’s particularly true of someone like Moll — a 31-year-old reliever who’ll finish out the season with two-plus years of service time (and thus four seasons of club control remaining).

Over the past three seasons, Moll has pitched to a 3.61 ERA with with a 25% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, 50% ground-ball rate and 0.70 HR/9 in 89 2/3 innings out of the Oakland ’pen. He’s had a rougher showing from an ERA perspective in 2023, turning in a 4.50 mark through 36 innings. Moll has been plagued by a .337 average on balls in play, however, and this year’s 27.3% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 50.5% grounder rate are all career-bests.

Notably, Moll hasn’t been the same pitcher for much of the 2023 season that he has throughout his prior career. After a five-run drubbing at the hands of the Rangers back on May 14, the lefty has dramatically changed his pitch mix — and subsequently begun to enjoy better results.

Prior to that outing, Moll was primarily a sinker/slider reliever. He’d thrown a four-seam fastball less than two percent of the time in 2023 and didn’t throw a four-seamer at all in either 2021 or 2022. Since then, he’s thrown a traditional four-seamer nearly a quarter of the time, averaging 94.7 mph on the pitch.

Since adding the four-seamer to his repertoire, Moll has pitched to a 3.68 ERA with a 2.19 FIP and 2.79 SIERA. He’s fanned a hefty 31.7% of his opponents against a 6.9% walk rate — both vast improvements — without sacrificing many grounders. He’s still induced grounders at a strong 48.3% clip, even after lessening his reliance on a sinker.

Moll looks like a vastly better pitcher with the four-seamer in his arsenal than he did before. It’s certainly possible that teams will adjust their plans of attack now that he’s altered his, but the early results are strong and Moll has pitched well dating back to 2021, even with his prior pitch selection.

The majority of contenders throughout the league are seeking bullpen upgrades, and lefties — particularly controllable ones — who average nearly 95 mph with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates aren’t exactly in abundance. Moll isn’t a household name by any means, but thus is the life of a late-blooming setup man on a historically bad team. Even if he’s a relative unknown to most fans, big league front offices are surely aware of his overall track record since 2021 and the recent strides he’s made since mixing up his approach on the mound.

Cubs Outright Adrian Sampson

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2023 at 9:34am CDT

The Cubs reinstated right-hander Adrian Sampson from the 60-day injured list yesterday, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Rather than add the veteran righty back to the 40-man roster, the Cubs instead passed him through waivers, where he went unclaimed, and assigned him outright to Triple-A Iowa.

Sampson, 31, pitched to a strong 3.03 ERA in 139 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2021-22 upon his return from the Korea Baseball Organization, although fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.44) were far less optimistic, in large part because of a pedestrian 17.6% strikeout rate. Sampson’s 6.1% walk rate was excellent, however, and he kept the ball on the ground at an only slightly below-average 41% clip.

That solid showing notwithstanding, it’s been a tough year for Sampson. The righty sustained a meniscus injury back April that would eventually require surgery. He’s pitched a total of 25 1/3 minor league frames this year and been tagged for an 8.17 ERA in that time. Sampson posted an ERA north of 8.00 in two appearances before the injury and in six appearances since returning.

As a player who’s been outrighted in the past, Sampson does have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, though he lacks the service time required to do so while retaining the remainder of his $1.9MM salary. That salary, paired with his recent struggles, surely tamped down interest in a potential waiver claim.

Given that financial commitment, he’ll surely accept an outright and remain on hand as a depth option for a Cubs team that could move at least one starter between now and next week’s trade deadline.

The Opener: Draft Signing Deadline, Alvarez, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | July 25, 2023 at 8:29am CDT

As the trade deadline draws ever closer, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Draft Pick Signing Deadline:

The deadline for clubs to agree to terms with their picks from the 2023 Amateur Draft is at 4pm CT this afternoon. The vast majority of top picks have signed, with only three in the first 100 selections currently unsigned: Walker Jenkins (No. 5 overall, Twins) Jackson Baumeister (No. 63 overall, Orioles), and Jaxon Wiggins (No. 68 overall, Cubs). In the event that Minnesota, Baltimore or Chicago fail to sign their picks, they will receive a compensatory pick in next year’s draft.

2. Yordan nearing return:

Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters yesterday, including Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle, that star slugger Yordan Alvarez is nearing a return to action and could be activated from the injured list as soon as today. Alvarez has been 10-day IL for just over six weeks due to an oblique strain. The Astros are two games back of the Rangers for the AL West lead with a 57-44 record. In 57 games this season, Alvarez has slashed a phenomenal .277/.388/.589, good for a wRC+ of 167 that ranks behind only Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani among those with at least 240 plate appearances. Alvarez’s return would seemingly result in reduced playing time for outfielder Corey Julks, who has posted a decent wRC+ of 93 to this point in his rookie season.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With MLB’s trade deadline just a week from today, the baseball world is buzzing with rumors of deals to come. If you have any questions about your favorite team’s direction as the deadline nears, a trade idea you have in the back of your mind, or are wondering what it would take for your team to acquire a certain player, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Diamondbacks, Orioles Interested In Shohei Ohtani

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2023 at 11:05pm CDT

The Diamondbacks and Orioles are two of the clubs that have spoken with the Angels about Shohei Ohtani, should the Angels look to trade Ohtani prior to the deadline, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (Twitter links). Since it is far from a foregone conclusion that Ohtani will be moved at all, Morosi notes that Arizona and Baltimore were essentially making “due diligence” calls, just in case the Angels’ stance changes.

Ohtani’s future has been the biggest storyline of deadline season, putting added import on the outcome of every Angels game. Los Angeles has a 51-49 record entering into their final games before the August 1 deadline — a pair of three-game series with the Tigers and Blue Jays, and the opener of another three-game set with the Braves on July 31. The Halos entered Monday four games behind Toronto for the final AL wild card berth, and the AL West crown is likely out of reach given the Rangers’ eight-game edge over Anaheim in the standings.

Whereas owner Arte Moreno firmly closed the door on even the possibility of an Ohtani trade last summer when the Angels were far out of contention, it would appear as if there’s at least a tiny chance that a deal might happen this year, even as the Angels remain on the fringes of the playoff hunt. The club is at least willing to hear what other teams might have to offer for Ohtani, even if a trade is still considered quite unlikely at this point (and as long as the Angels keep winning). Continuing with the theme of due diligence, there’s no harm for Angels GM Perry Minasian to at least listen to offers just in case another team is willing to give up a staggering return for two months of Ohtani’s services.

It makes particular sense for the D’Backs and O’s to check in on the two-way superstar, most obviously because both teams are battling to reach the playoffs. Arizona has slumped in July while Baltimore has surged into first place in the AL East, yet both teams have designs on both getting into October and then making some noise. Starting pitching is a shared area of need for the two teams, to varying degrees — the Orioles’ staff has been solid but unspectacular, whereas the Diamondbacks haven’t gotten much from their rotation apart from Zac Gallen and the injured Merrill Kelly.

Ohtani would naturally provide a huge boost to either pitching staff, as well as instantly becoming the biggest threat in either lineup. As Morosi notes, minor league depth is another interesting commonality between the D’Backs and Orioles, as both teams have the kind of impressive prospects that it would take to pry Ohtani away in a trade.

Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen recently stated that his club plans to “be aggressive, even ultra-aggressive,” at the deadline, but not “reckless,” since “being reckless does not serve anyone’s interests, this year’s team or in the future.” On paper, trading multiple top-100 prospects for a rental player like Ohtani might be considered too big a risk, considering that Arizona’s payroll history doesn’t at all suggest the D’Backs are contenders to sign Ohtani in free agency this winter. Likewise, Baltimore GM Mike Elias said back in May that his team was already intending to buy at the deadline, after such a long rebuild, Elias might not want to greatly reduce his core of elite prospects for a single player.

Then again, Ohtani is such a special case that it might convince a front office (or, perhaps more importantly, an ownership group) to make an extra push. His two-way ability enhances a contender on both sides of the ball, and conceivably, the D’Backs and Orioles are both so deep in prospects that they’d still have a good crop of prospects even minus the three, or four, or five names it might take to obtain Ohtani’s services. In the bigger picture, Ohtani would provide such a financial surge in ticket sales, merchandise, TV ratings, and overseas interest that acquiring him for even two months would be a franchise-altering move, beyond what he might do on the field to help the Diamondbacks or Orioles capture a championship.

NL Notes: Rockies, Matz, Winker, Brewers, Ziegler

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2023 at 10:37pm CDT

The Rockies’ injury-plagued season has extended into the club’s farm system, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter) reports that pitching prospects Gabriel Hughes, Jackson Cox, and Jordy Vargas will all undergo Tommy John surgeries this week. Dr. Keith Meister will perform all of the procedures, as well as the previously reported TJ surgery for veteran righy-hander Antonio Senzatela.

It’s a brutal setback for the three youngsters, all ranked by MLB Pipeline among the Rockies’ top 12 overall prospects, and Pipeline lists the trios as three of Colorado’s top four pitching prospects. Hughes was the 10th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Cox was a second-round pick in that same draft, and the 19-year-old Vargas was an international signing in 2021. Hughes was the furthest along of the trio since he made his Double-A debut this season, but now all three pitchers have been dealt a big setback in their young careers. Given the usual recovery timeline for Tommy John procedures, there’s a chance any of Hughes, Cox, or Vargas might be able to return late in the 2024 campaign, but it is likelier that the right-handers will all be sidelined until 2025.

Reds Notes: India, White Sox, Newman, Casali

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2023 at 9:44pm CDT

The White Sox have interest in Reds second baseman Jonathan India, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. This item has some connection to a pair of other recent reports, one from last week about the Reds’ interest in Chicago’s pitchers, and an item from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand earlier today indicating that the Reds were at least open to consider moving India in a deal for controllable pitching.

However, Wittenmyer pushed back on Feinsand’s report, hearing that the Reds’ willingness to move India was “vastly overstated…and led to conversations assuring one of the most respected players in the clubhouse of the slim-to-none chance he’ll be traded.” Listening to offers out of due diligence doesn’t translate that the Reds are particularly eager to move India, with Wittenmyer indicating that Cincinnati’s talks about India fall “into the category of there’s no such thing as an untouchable player,” rather than the front office actually shopping the second baseman.

An India trade might make sense on paper, given Cincinnati’s glut of young infield talent and the team’s strong need for rotation help for an unexpected playoff push. That said, moving India might not be sensible from a chemistry standpoint, as Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, and Reds manager David Bell all spoke glowingly about India’s importance within the group.

“I don’t think you can really put into words what [India] means to this team,” Steer said. “He’s the guy who addresses the team after wins….He’s been through kind of every phase of what an organization goes through when they’re trying to win. He continues to be a great leader on and off the field, vocally, leading by example through his actions every single day.”

Wittenmyer cited the Brewers’ now-infamous trade of Josh Hader as an example of how a midseason deal that is sensible from a big-picture standpoint can be disastrous to the morale of a team trying to win now, as the Brewers were vocally demoralized in the wake of Hader’s move to the Padres last summer. Obviously the Hader trade has become something of a cautionary tale for front offices, giving Reds GM Nick Krall even more to ponder he looks for ways to bolster his surprise contender.

Of course, the Reds players could warm up to a trade quickly if a major player came back to Cincinnati in return — for instance, Dylan Cease. While Cease is one of four players the White Sox consider next to untouchable in trade talks, India (who is controlled through 2026) might be the kind of building block that might get the Sox considering moving the AL Cy Young Award runner-up. Likewise, in what might be the middle ground between Wittenmyer and Feinsand’s reports, landing a frontline hurler like Cease would be the only scenario that might get Krall and company to part ways with India.

Lucas Giolito is Chicago’s top trade asset heading into the deadline, yet the Reds aren’t at all likely to move India for a pitcher who will be a free agent after the season. Michael Kopech (who, like Cease, is controlled through 2025) could be an interesting target for the Reds, though Cincinnati might be wary of Kopech’s injury history.

Speaking of the Reds’ infield, Kevin Newman returned from the 10-day injured list today after a minimum 10-day absence due to gastritis. The veteran has hit .260/.318/.375 over 225 plate appearances this season, getting a good chunk of time at third base, second base, and shortstop. That said, Newman’s playing time has been reduced since the arrival of McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and now Christian Encarnacion-Strand in Cincinnati’s infield, and with the youngsters taking over, Newman looks like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline.

Newman’s activation was one of a few transactions made by the Reds today, as righty Levi Stoudt was optioned to Triple-A and Daniel Duarte was called up to bring a fresh arm into the pitching ranks. More notably, catcher Curt Casali was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 21) due to a left foot contusion.

With Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile already on the active roster, the Reds aren’t short in the catching department. Casali and Stephenson began the year in something of a timeshare behind the plate, as the Reds were trying to keep Stephenson healthy after his injury-shortened 2022 by using him regularly at DH and first base. However, with Joey Votto’s return from the IL and the DH position being used to give at-bats to many young hitters, Stephenson has more increasingly taken on a regular catching workload, leaving Casali as an odd man out.

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