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Quick Hits: Roster Sizes, Phillies, Yankees, Burnes

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Each offseason veteran players with experience at the upper levels of the minor leagues and in the majors routinely qualify for minor league free agency and test the open market in search of fresh minor league agreements with clubs willing to offer them an invite to major league Spring Training. Such arrangements have been increasingly difficult to come by this winter, however, and Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper recently explored a significant reason why.

As noted by Cooper, the new collective bargaining agreement between MLB and minor league players gave the league the right to limit the total number of domestic minor league players to just 165 ahead of the 2024 season, with a limit of 175 players during the offseason. Cooper notes that reduced figure slashes a total of 450 roster spots around the league or 15 per club. That limited roster flexibility gives clubs far less opportunity to offer minor league free agents deals that have long been considered “no-risk fliers,” as now clubs will often times be forced with potentially cutting a younger minor league player early in their professional career to make room for an interesting veteran journeyman.

While minor league deals are typically regarded as low-risk signings that are relatively unlikely to result in a given player making an impact at the big league level, one needn’t look very hard to find examples of players heading to camp on minor league deals only to provide considerable value to that club throughout the year. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward and Rangers outfielder Travis Jankowski are two examples of veteran hitters who came into camp on minor league deals last year, earned a spot on the Opening Day roster, and played well enough to earn a big-league deal with their respective clubs after returning to the open market this winter.

More from around Major League Baseball…

  • The Phillies have long been known to be on the hunt for another relief arm after losing veteran closer Craig Kimbrel in free agency this past winter, with the likes of Phil Maton and Jakob Junis reportedly on the club’s radar prior to the pair signing with the Rays and Brewers, respectively. That being said, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer indicated this afternoon that the club is unlikely to pursue further bullpen additions this winter after adding depth starter Spencer Turnbull on a big league deal earlier today. While Turnbull has options remaining, he has enough service time at this point in his career to a refuse a minor league assignment. That leaves Philadelphia with minimal flexibility in their bullpen which would only be further reduced by the addition of another veteran arm. According to Lauber, six arms are all but locked into the club’s relief mix already, leaving just two spots for a group that includes non-optionable hurlers Turnbull, Connor Brogdon, Dylan Covey as well as optionable pieces like Yunior Marte, Kolby Allard, and Michael Rucker.
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning indicated that the Yankees discussed right-hander Corbin Burnes with the Brewers prior to the ace being traded to their division rival in Baltimore, though the club “rebuffed” Milwaukee in talks once the club requested outfield prospect Spencer Jones in return for Burnes’s services. The 22-year-old Jones was the club’s first-round pick in the 2022 draft and has generally impressed to this point in his minor league career, though he struggled with a .261/.333/.406 in a 17-game stint at the Double-A level last year. Previous reporting indicated that New York was unwilling to include Jones in a package for White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that the club also passed on parting with the youngster for a rental arm like Burnes.

Brown: Astros Plan To Make Kyle Tucker Extension Offer

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Astros GM Dana Brown has been candid about the club’s efforts to extend a member of their core ever since he arrived in Houston last winter. Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the first extension the club signed under Brown’s leadership (a five-year deal for right-hander Cristian Javier), and longtime franchise face Jose Altuve agreed to a five-year extension of his own just last week. While attention has generally turned toward third baseman Alex Bregman as he heads into his final year before free agency and Houston brass indicates they intend to offer him a long-term extension offer before he reaches the open market, Brown recently made clear that Bregman isn’t the only star hitter the club plans to broach an extension with.

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio today, Brown told hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette that the club plans to discuss a long-term extension with outfielder Kyle Tucker in addition to Bregman. Brown emphasized that there’s no specifically timeline for when those conversations will be held, though he noted that the club has “a little bit more time for Tucker,” who won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign.

That the club would have interest in extending Tucker is hardly a surprise. Brown identified Tucker alongside Bregman, Altuve, and Framber Valdez as members of the club’s core they were hoping to extend last spring, though the club faced gaps in talks with both Tucker and Valdez before eventually deciding to wait on engaging with Altuve and Bregman until this winter. At the time, Tucker was coming off a stretch of three seasons where he slashed .274/.341/.516 en route to MVP votes in the 2021 and ’22 seasons as well as a Gold Glove award and All Star nod in the latter campaign.

The price on Tucker’s services figures to have only gone up since last winter. The slugger’s age-26 campaign saw him slash a fantastic .284/.369/.517 in 157 games, falling just one home run short of a 30/30 season. He led the AL with 112 RBI and earned his second consecutive All Star nod, the first Silver Slugger award of his career, and a top-5 finish in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez. Tucker and the Astros managed to avoid arbitration last month by agreeing on a $12MM salary for the 2024 campaign, though the sides did not use those negotiations as a vehicle to explore a longer-term arrangement.

With Tucker just one year away from free agency and coming off the best season of his young career, it could be a challenge for the club to extend the Excel Sports client. Under the ownership of Jim Crane, the Astros have never given out a contract longer than six years, nor one that guarantees more than $150MM. Just one outfielder with a similar pedigree to Tucker have inked long-term deals with between four and five years of service time: slugger Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325MM megadeal with the Marlins nearly a decade ago, in November of 2014.

This isn’t to suggest Tucker should exceed or even meet the figure Stanton received, of course. Age plays an important role in a player’s earning power as they approach free agency, a reality that heavily favored Stanton in comparison to Tucker. Stanton was on track to reach free agency ahead of his age-27 season, while Tucker will hit free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. What’s more, his overall offensive numbers pale in comparison to Stanton’s. Impressive Tucker’s career-best 146 wRC+ in 2021 was, Stanton’s wRC+ for his entire career at the time was a comparable 145, with an incredible platform season that saw him slash .288/.395/.555 with a 161 wRC+ the season prior to the deal coming together.

Even as Tucker can’t be expected to sign a deal in the same realm as that of Stanton, it’s nonetheless difficult to see Houston locking up Tucker long term without exiting their apparent comfort zone given the success outfielders have found in free agency in recent years. Former Astros outfielder George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal with the Blue Jays after entering free agency ahead of his age-31 season with a career wRC+ of 134, and more recently Brandon Nimmo re-signed with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM deal last winter after hitting free agency a year older than Tucker is slated to with a career wRC+ of 133. Given Tucker’s youth and similar offensive numbers, it seems likely he’d have a good chance to beat the deals landed by Springer and Nimmo in previous offseasons, even as both players augmented their value with the ability to play center field at the time of the deal.

While the Astros, who have just over $134MM in luxury tax payroll committed for the 2025 season as things stand, could certainly afford to give Tucker a lengthy contract, it seems likely that such a deal would require Houston to enter territory not yet charted by the club with their offer, a similar predicament to the one they face with Bregman. It also seems unlikely that Tucker would offer the club a significant hometowm discount, given comments from Brown last winter indicating that the Astros were facing a larger gap in extension discussions with Tucker than Valdez, neither of whom the club ultimately came together on a deal with.

Between the club’s hesitance to offer star-level contracts throughout Crane’s tenure as owner, Brown’s indication that Bregman is the club’s priority for the time being, and the difficulties the sides faced in bridging what was likely a smaller gap last spring, there’s plenty of obstacles facing Tucker and the Astros should they look to extend their relationship long-term. While it’s impossible to rule anything out given the difficult gaps clubs and players have bridged previously around the league, an extension for Tucker would surely require the club moving well outside of its comfort zone in terms of player payroll. That’s particularly true if a Tucker extension were to be paired with a deal locking up Bregman long-term.

Phillies Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Phillies announced that they have signed right-hander Spencer Turnbull to a contract. It’s a one-year, $2MM deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Turnbull, a client of the Boras Corporation, can also earn another $2MM in incentives.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Turnbull to earn $2.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, yet the Tigers chose to non-tender the righty in November.  It is fair to assume that the clashes between Turnbull and the Tigers over service time contributed to the club’s decision moreso than his modest price tag, though Turnbull also has a checkered health history coming off what is almost three straight lost seasons.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has some familiarity with Turnbull, as Dombrowski was still running the Tigers front office when Detroit selected Turnbull in the second round of the 2014 draft.  The righty battled some shoulder problems during his trip up the minor league ladder, but made his MLB debut with 16 1/3 innings in 2018 and then tossed 148 1/3 frames during the 2019 season.  Despite a league-high 17 losses that year, Turnbull had decent enough peripherals that he looked like a potential building block for the rebuilding Tigers.

That potential was further realized when Turnbull posted a 3.46 ERA over 106 2/3 innings in 2020-21.  He pitched well for Detroit during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, and then his 2021 season was highlighted by a no-hitter on May 18 of that year.  Unfortunately, Turnbull made only three more appearances after his no-no before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for the rest of the 201 season and all of 2022.

Returning to action last year, Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA over seven starts, and he didn’t pitch again the majors after May 6.  He was initially optioned to the minors the next day, though that option was overwritten a week after when Turnbull was placed on the 15-day IL due to neck discomfort.  The right-hander was eventually moved to the 60-day injured list and wasn’t activated until August, when Turnbull was then optioned to Triple-A.

Turnbull wasn’t pleased with the demotion because he was also dealing with foot injury at the time, and the situation was eventually resolved in November when Turnbull was awarded a full year of MLB service time.  He now has five years and 20 days of acknowledged big league service time, and would’ve fallen short of the five-year mark had his appeal for more time hadn’t been granted.  This would have delayed Turnbull’s eventual trip to free agency for another year, as he wouldn’t have had the necessary six full years of eligibility heading into the 2024-25 offseason, though that ended up being something of a moot point after the Tigers non-tendered him.

The 31-year-old will now look for a fresh start in Philadelphia under Dombrowski’s watch once again.  Dombrowski spoke last month about how the Phillies were looking to add depth to their pitching staff, though since the Phils already have a pretty set rotation and bullpen mix, the team was having some difficulty in luring pitchers who wanted more opportunities for innings.  This could explain why the Phillies opted for Turnbull, whose market was lessened given his recent injury woes.

Turnbull, Dylan Covey, Kolby Allard, Nick Nelson, and Max Castillo now project as Philadelphia’s top rotation depth options.  Any of this group could also pitch in the bullpen, and Turnbull has a leg up on the others due to the guaranteed nature of his contract.  Working as a reliever might also present a new career path for Turnbull to explore if starting pitching is no longer in the cards, though it still seems too early for that door to be closed.

Marlins, Twins Trade Nick Gordon For Steven Okert

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The Marlins and Twins have agreed to a deal that will send infielder/outfielder Nick Gordon to Miami in exchange for left-hander Steven Okert.  FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link) was the first to report Gordon was being traded to the Fish, while the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported (via X) that Okert was heading to Minnesota.

Gordon was the fifth overall pick of the 2014 draft, and a top prospect for much of his time in the Twins’ farm system even though his star began to dim due to injuries and struggles in the upper minors.  With a career .248/.298/.361 slash line over 829 career Triple-A plate appearances, Gordon still made his MLB debut in 2021 appearing in 73 games for the Twins, and then took on a larger role with 443 PA over 136 games in 2022.  Gordon earned that extra playing time by hitting .272/.316/.427 during the 2022 campaign, and his ability to play multiple positions made him a particularly valuable asset on a Minnesota team that beset by injuries.

Unfortunately, the injury bug again came for Gordon himself last year, as he fractured his right shin after fouling a ball off himself on May 17.  This ended his MLB season after only 34 games, and Gordon made it back for six Triple-A games in September but wasn’t ready to return to the active roster before the end of the regular season.  Gordon had been off to a tough start even before his injury, hitting only .176/.185/.319 in 93 PA.

The trade comes just a day after the results of Gordon’s arbitration hearing, and the panel sided with the Twins by deciding on a $900K salary for Gordon in 2024, rather than his desired figure of $1.25MM.  Gordon is heading into his age-28 season but is still arb-controlled through the 2027 campaign as per his Super Two status.  Okert offers only a bit less control, as was arb-eligible for the first of three times this winter and avoided arbitration by agreeing with the Marlins on a $1,062,500 salary for the 2024 season.

It was a little over a year ago that the Twins and Marlins lined up on the blockbuster four-player swap that sent Luis Arraez to Miami and Pablo Lopez to Minnesota.  Today’s move isn’t nearly as high-profile, yet it does mark the fifth transaction between the two franchises within the last 13 months, as the Twins’ comfort level with Miami’s front office has continued even now that Peter Bendix has taken over from Kim Ng as the head of the Marlins’ baseball ops department.

Gordon has spent most of his time in the majors as a second baseman, center fielder, and right fielder, with a handful of appearances at shortstop, third base, and right field.  The public defensive metrics haven’t been wowed by Gordon’s glovework at any of his positions, yet his sheer versatility makes him an interesting asset on Miami’s roster.  Gordon isn’t likely to be answer to the Marlins’ needs at shortstop, though if Jon Berti ends up getting the bulk of playing time at short, Gordon might fill Berti’s old role as the chief utility option.

As Anthony Franco recently observed in a piece for MLBTR’s Front Office subscribers, the Marlins entered the offseason with quite a bit of left-handed relief depth, between Okert, Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, and Andrew Nardi.  Scott didn’t seem likely to be moved given his role as Miami’s projected closer, and unlike Okert, Scott and Puk both have minor league options remaining.  Since Gordon is also out of options, this one-for-one swap helps both teams address some needs at the cost of a potentially expendable player.

A veteran of six MLB seasons with the Giants and Marlins, Okert posted a 2.89 ERA over 87 1/3 relief innings for Miami in 2021-22, with the aid of a .224 BABIP.  Some course correction arrived in 2023, as Okert had a .295 BABIP and a 4.45 ERA over 58 2/3 frames, and a pretty mixed bag of peripherals.  Okert’s strikeout and hard-hit ball rates were both well above average, but his walk and barrel rates were both below the league average.  The 32-year-old Okert is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, so his effectiveness has tended to hinge on how well he fares at keeping the ball in the park.

On the plus side, Okert has good numbers against both left-handed and right-handed batters, and he has been a workhorse with 124 appearances over the last two seasons.  He’ll now join Caleb Thielbar as the top southpaw options in Minnesota’s very solid relief corps, and rookie Kody Funderburk provides another interesting left-handed arm who could be shuttled back and forth from Triple-A as circumstances dictate.

Between payroll cuts and concerns over their TV contract, the Twins’ offseason has only started to kick into high gear over the last couple of weeks.  Minnesota has now dealt both Jorge Polanco and Gordon in an effort to upgrade its pitching depth at the expense of a somewhat crowded group of position players, particularly within the infield.  Even without Gordon, Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer can pick up the utilityman slack on the Twins’ roster, and top prospects Austin Martin and Brooks Lee are both expected to make their MLB debuts in 2024.

Chicago Notes: White Sox, Cubs, McCarthy, Junis

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The White Sox acquired outfielder Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks last week, though the deal may have been something of an either-or proposition.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Sox had the option of picking either Fletcher or Jake McCarthy in the deal, with pitching prospect Cristian Mena still headed back to the D’Backs as the return piece in the one-for-one trade.

Fletcher and McCarthy share a similar profile as 26-year-old, left-handed hitting outfielders who can play any of the three positions on the grass.  McCarthy was the 39th overall pick of the 2018 draft and has more Major League experience, with a .261/.331/.380 slash line over 736 plate appearances in the Show.  A fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 seemed to hint at McCarthy’s potential as a building block for the Snakes, yet a tough 2023 season saw him relegated to the minors and then to the Diamondbacks’ bench as the year developed.  Arizona’s willingness to move on from either player and the Southsiders’ decision to take Fletcher provides some interesting wrinkles to this trade, and it might be interesting to revisit this deal in a few years’ time once we see how the careers of Fletcher, McCarthy, and Mena have developed.

Here’s more from the Windy City’s two teams…

  • Though the top four in the Cubs rotation seems set and several candidates are vying for the fifth starter’s job, Jakob Junis “recently” drew some interest from Wrigleyville, as per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma.  The depth of the interest isn’t known, though it might’ve been something of a due diligence move by the Cubs since no formal offer was made.  Junis’ experience as a swingman means that he wouldn’t have necessarily even been in the rotation, so the Cubs could’ve been looking at Junis to bolster the bullpen and also add even more depth to the starting mix.  In any case, Junis is no longer an option, as the right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM contract with the Brewers last week.
  • In another piece from Mooney and Sharma, they look at the Cubs’ unsettled third base situation.  Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal seem poised to get the bulk of playing time, with Christopher Morel getting the occasional start at the hot corner, and Miles Mastrobuoni or rookie Luis Vazquez providing further depth.  There’s enough uncertainty here that Mooney/Sharma feel the Cubs might again make a trade deadline move at the position, akin to their deal for Jeimer Candelario this past summer.  Of course, the Cubs have also been linked to Matt Chapman this winter if the team still had a bigger-ticket free agent upgrade in mind, though a longer-term answer might block top prospect Matt Shaw, who has been working out as a third baseman this offseason.
  • Reports surfaced last month that the White Sox were speaking with development company Related Midwest about the potential of building a new ballpark on a portion of land in Chicago’s South Loop area.  Related Midwest recently released a series of artist renderings to media (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) about what this new stadium and the associated “ballpark village” area might look like alongside the Chicago River, as well as some proposed renderings of how the area around Guaranteed Rate Field could be developed if the Sox moved to a new site.  Obviously a lot of hurdles still have to be crossed with the White Sox, developers, civic and state officials, and many other parties before this proposed ballpark could become a reality, and the earliest possible opening date would seem to be 2030, since the team’s lease at Guaranteed Rate Field runs through the 2029 season.

Mets Outright Austin Adams

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TODAY: Adams has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, the Mets announced.  Adams has apparently decided to forego his opt-out opportunity and will remain with the organization, and attend Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

FEBRUARY 6: Right-hander Austin Adams was designated for assignment by the Mets, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. That move opens a roster spot for Jake Diekman, whose previously-reported signing has now been officially announced by the club.

Adams, 33 in May, just signed with the Mets at the end of November. His contract is a non-guaranteed split deal, meaning he will earn different salaries depending on whether he’s in the majors or the minors. The exact figures of Adams’ contract haven’t been reported, but deals of this nature often feature a modest major league salary but the minor league salary is significantly larger than what the average minor leaguer would make.

While it might seem strange to sign a player and then cut him from the roster a few months later, the club is usually hoping for the player to pass through waivers unclaimed and then remain in the organization as non-roster depth. Adams has more than three years of service time, meaning he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency. But since he has less than five years of service time, exercising that right would mean walking away from the money remaining on his deal.

For an example of this recently playing out, Austin Wynns signed a split deal with the Reds in December which will pay him $950K in the majors and $300K in the minors. A couple of weeks later, Wynns was designated for assignment and then outrighted after going unclaimed on waivers. Per the minor league CBA that was agreed to by MLB and MLBPA last April, the minimum salary of a Triple-A player is just under $36K, meaning Wynns will be making almost 10 times that even if he never gets his roster spot back. There’s been no reporting of him electing free agency since he was outrighted over a month ago, so he has presumably decided to accept and keep that $300K salary locked in as a floor for himself.

The Mets will be hoping the same happens with Adams, though there’s also a risk that some other club would claim him off waivers. That happened to the Orioles last year when they signed Jake Cave to a split deal, tried to get him off the roster but saw the Phillies swoop in with a waiver claim. If any club is particularly intrigued by the current deal Adams is on, they will have an opportunity to get him. The Mets will have one week to work out a trade or pass him through waivers.

Adams has 114 1/3 innings of major league experience to this point in his career, having allowed 4.17 earned runs per nine. His career strikeout rate of 33.1% is quite strong, but he’s paired that with notable control issues. His 14.6% walk rate is on the high side and he also amazingly plunked 24 hitters while with the Padres in 2021. That was the most of any pitcher in any season dating back to 1910, even though Adams only threw 52 2/3 innings of relief.

That doesn’t seem to have deterred the Mets, who appear to be taking a gamble this offseason in buying low on pitchers with control issues. Diekman has a 13.3% walk rate in his career while Shintaro Fujinami, also signed to a one-year deal, walked 12.6% of batters faced in his first MLB season. Yohan Ramírez, acquired in a small trade, also has big walk numbers. The same applies to guys who signed minor league deals like Cole Sulser, Yacksel Ríos, Chad Smith and Andre Scrubb. Adams may soon join that latter group as non-roster depth pitchers whom the Mets will be hoping to help harness their stuff.

The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Competition

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With left-hander Shota Imanaga poised to join Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks in the Cubs’ rotation in place of Marcus Stroman this season after the veteran righty signed with the Yankees last month, one spot remains open in the club’s starting rotation with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp for Spring Training next week. While it’s not impossible to imagine a surprise trade for or signing of an arm such as Shane Bieber (who the Cubs were connected to earlier this winter) or Jordan Montgomery, all indications point toward the Cubs turning their attention towards a reunion with Cody Bellinger at this point in the offseason.

Should Chicago enter the 2024 campaign with only their internal rotation options, here’s a look at who could be under consideration to join the starting five:

The 34-year-old left-hander, in some ways, appears to be the obvious choice for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Signed to a two-year, $19MM contract last winter, Smyly started 23 games for Chicago last year and enjoyed a great deal of success early in the season, including a 10-strikeout game in late April where the southpaw came fell just four outs short of a perfect game. Through 15 starts, Smyly had a strong 3.38 ERA and a decent FIP of 4.33, though his strikeout rate of just 19.9% raised some eyebrows.

Unfortunately for Smyly, the wheels came off from there for him. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 6.88 FIP in 35 innings of work across his next eight appearances and found himself demoted to the bullpen, where he found some solid success in short relief. In sixteen relief appearances from August 13 onward, Smyly dominated with a 1.13 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work and a 33.7% strikeout rate. Those strong relief outings didn’t translate to better performance out of the rotation, however, as Smyly surrendered 10 runs in just four innings of work across his final two starts of the season on August 22 and October 1.

Given Smyly’s superlative results out of the bullpen late in the season and his pronounced struggles as a member of the rotation, it seems unlikely that the Cubs would offer Smyly the inside track to the fifth starter role entering the 2024 campaign, though it’s possible he could earn the role through a combination of strong performance this spring and injuries to other options.

Wesneski won a camp battle for the club’s fifth starter spot last spring, beating out veteran right-hander Adrian Sampson for the role. Wesneski’s opportunity in the rotation came on the heels of a stellar debut late in the 2022 season, shortly after Chicago acquired him from the Yankees at the trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. In six appearances down the stretch for the Cubs that year, Wesneski dominated to a 2.18 ERA and 3.20 FIP while striking out 25% of batters faced.

Unfortunately, Wesneski’s 2023 audition for a rotation job did not go nearly as well, as he allowed a 5.33 ERA and 5.96 FIP across 50 2/3 innings of work over 11 appearances (10 starts) to open the season. Wesneski was moved to multi-inning relief shortly there after and would make just one start (which lasted only two innings) the rest of the season, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work over his final 23 appearances. It’s not hard to imagine Wesneski returning to the starting rotation at some point in the future, as the 26-year-old remains under club control through the 2028 campaign, though it appears likely he has been surpassed by other youngsters on the rotational depth chart for the time being.

The most experienced arm on this list outside of Smyly, the 26-year-old Assad made his big league debut in 2022 and pitched decently in a nine-appearance cup of coffee where he posted a 3.11 ERA and 4.49 FIP over 37 2/3 innings of work. Assad competed with Sampson and Wesneski for the fifth starter role out of camp last year, though his bid for the role was complicated by a detour to participate in the World Baseball Classic for Team Mexico.

Assad’s time in the tournament saw him dazzle with 5 2/3 scoreless innings of work as a multi-inning reliever. He struck out six on just two hits and a walk while touching 97 with his heater. The strong performance in a relief role led the Cubs to enter the season with Assad in that role, though he struggled to a 9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 innings across his first three appearances for Chicago last year, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A.

Upon returning to the majors in early May, Assad dominated out of the bullpen for the next three months, posting a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work across 16 appearances despite a 4.01 FIP. The Cubs then moved him to the rotation for the majority of the stretch run, and the right-hander held his own in the role with a 2.88 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 59 1/3 innings of work across the season’s final two months. Assad’s quality work in the rotation down the stretch with Chicago last summer should give him the opportunity to earn the final spot in the club’s rotation this spring, though its possible the Cubs value his versatility as a player who’s had success swinging in and out of the rotation throughout his young career.

Chicago’s first round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has the most impressive prospect pedigree of any of the club’s likely fifth starter options this spring. The southpaw has quickly climbed the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year with just 48 starts in the minor leagues under his belt, leading to some top 100 prospect buzz this winter with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranking Wicks as the #41 prospect in the entire sport, just five spots behind Kyle Harrison of the Giants. That impressive ranking is largely backed up by Wicks’ performance on the field. In 20 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA in 91 1/3 innings of work while punching out 26.5% of batters faced.

The lefty’s major league debut went nearly as well, as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.95 FIP in 33 innings of work across his first six starts in the big leagues, though he struck out just 17% of batters faced during that time. Unfortunately, Wicks suffered the first blow-up start of his big league career in his final start of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits and one walk in just 1 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers. That left him with a uninspiring 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP across his first taste of big league action, though he did generate grounders at a solid 46.8% clip during that time.

Given the success he’s flashed in the majors and his prospect pedigree, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs hand Wicks the keys to the final spot in Chicago’s rotation this spring, though its possible his low strikeout rate in the majors and ugly final start last year lead the club to believe the 24-year-old southpaw, who has pitched just 33 innings at the Triple-A level to this point in his career, needs more time to develop in the minors before joining the rotation full time.

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The aforementioned four arms appear to be the most likely internal options for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot to open the season, though there are at handful of dark horse options worth a mention as well. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton was the club’s first round pick in the 2022 draft and is generally regarded even better than Wicks after he dominated the lower minors to the tune of a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts last year. With that being said, the 22-year-old has no experience above the Double-A level, where he made just six starts last year, and has not yet been stretched out to the level required for a big league starting pitcher as he topped 75 pitches in an outing just three times last year.

Ben Brown is another prospect who has gotten top-100 buzz for the Cubs. Unlike Horton, he’s already on the 40-man roster and has reached the Triple-A level, though he struggled to a 5.33 ERA at the level last year while walking 15.8% of batters faced at the level. Porter Hodge and Caleb Kilian are two other starting pitching prospects already on Chicago’s 40-man roster, though Hodge has yet to pitch above the Double-A level and Kilian has struggled to a 12.42 ERA across six appearances in the majors, leaving each far more likely to open the season in the minors.

Nick Gordon Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Twins

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Utilityman Nick Gordon has lost his arbitration hearing against the Twins, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll receive a $900K salary in 2024 after filing at $1.25MM. MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz projected Gordon for a $1MM salary in arbitration this winter, though arbiters have to pick between the numbers filed by player and team and cannot choose a midpoint figure.

Gordon, 28, qualified for arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason as a Super Two player. The top 22% of players with between two and three years of service time are given Super Two status, which grants them an additional year of arbitration eligibility. The 28-year-old’s first trip through arbitration this winter comes on the heels of a lost season in 2023 where Gordon did not appear in the majors after May 17 due to a fractured shin he sustained after fouling a ball off his leg during that day’s game against the Dodgers. Gordon struggled to a .176/.185/.319 slash line during his 34-game stint with the club last season, though he had begun to heat up somewhat with an .805 OPS and six extra base hits in his previous 15 games entering the day of the injury.

The lost season in 2023 belies the breakout season Gordon enjoyed in 2022. After being selected fifth overall in the 2014 draft, Gordon was a mainstay on top prospect lists for several years but stalled out at the Triple-A level in 2018, where he’d remain until getting his first crack at a major league role in 2021. While Gordon’s numbers in a bench role that season were hardly eye-opening, he nonetheless entered the 2022 campaign as a member of the club’s Opening Day roster. Gordon opened the season as a part-time player who mainly played left and center field, but eventually grew into more of a regular role with the club after slashing .302/.348/.535 across a 31-game stretch from late May until early July.

After that hot stretch, Gordon fell back to Earth a bit as he slashed a decent .266/.315/.425 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers coincided with a noticeable bump in playing time; while Gordon started just 55 of the club’s 94 contests prior to the All Star break, he drew 58 starts across the 69 regular season games the club played following the break. Altogether, Gordon stepped to the plate 443 times in 2022 while appearing at every position on the diamond except for first base and catcher. In doing so, the switch-hitter slashed a respectable .272/.316/.427 that was good for a 111 wRC+.

Turning back to the coming campaign, the Twins will enjoy some short-term savings on Gordon’s 2024 salary, while the utilityman will face somewhat reduced earning power in future trips through arbitration due to the lower starting point being used as a base for raises in future trips through arbitration, which he is slated to go through three more times before he’s schedule to hit free agency following the 2027 season. Updates on Gordon’s health were relatively few and far between throughout the 2023 campaign after he was placed on the 60-day injured list back in May, but he figures to be ready for Spring Training and enter the season on the club’s bench alongside the likes of Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro.

Gordon’s hearing was the only one scheduled for the Twins this winter, though six more cases are slated to be heard around the league next week. Of course, some of the players and clubs remaining could agree to a deal to avoid a hearing entirely, as Adolis Garcia and Jonathan India did earlier this week with the Rangers and Reds, respectively. While most clubs operate under a “file and trial” system where they don’t hold contract discussions after last month’s deadline to file salary figures for the 2024 campaign, that moratorium on negotiations typically doesn’t apply to multi-year deals like the two-year pacts India and Garcia both signed. Players have enjoyed some considerable collective success to this point in the process, winning seven of the ten hearings that have taken place to this point.

NL West Notes: Kershaw, Peralta, Baker

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Longtime face of the franchise Clayton Kershaw reunited with the Dodgers earlier this week on a two-year deal, ending the uncertainty that lingered surrounding the southpaw’s future throughout the offseason. Kershaw recently spoke to reporters, including Juan Toribio of MLB.com, regarding the difficult decisions he had to make this offseason regarding surgery and his future as a player.

As relayed by Toribio, Kershaw noted that thoughts of retirement weighed heavily on him for the first time in his career, and that he took his time deciding whether or not to undergo shoulder surgery, which he indicated was necessary to continue his career but wouldn’t have been required from him to partake in day-to-day activities such as catch with his children. Toribio added that Kershaw’s difficult start against the Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the NLDS, where he surrendered six runs while recording just one out, played a role in the southpaw’s decision to return to the Dodgers for a 17th season in the majors.

Toribio indicates that potentially parting ways with the only club he’s pitched for as a professional and pitching for his hometown Rangers held some appeal for Kershaw, but that ultimately the Dodgers’ flurry of activity this offseason played a role in convincing the veteran lefty to remain in L.A. for the 2024 campaign.

“This offseason has been pretty amazing to watch, honestly. There’s definitely a part of me that wanted to be a part of that,” Kershaw told reporters, as relayed by Toribio.

Kershaw isn’t expected to return to a big league mound until the late summer, with Toribio noting that “sometime in July” is the earliest he could pitch for L.A. in 2024. The left-hander is currently slated to ramp his throwing progression up sometime next month and will join the team on homestands during his rehab. The club’s offseason overhaul of their pitching staff leaves them with plenty of options to hold down the fort in the starting rotation during Kershaw’s absence. Though right-hander Walker Buehler is expected to start the season on the injured list, offseason additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and James Paxton are currently slated to pitch in the rotation alongside sophomore righty Bobby Miller and an addition young arm such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone come the start of the regular season.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Padres brought in left-hander Wandy Peralta on a four-year deal earlier this week, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that this is hardly the first time the club has pursued the veteran southpaw. According to Lin, San Diego’s interest in Peralta dates back to the 2023 trade deadline. At the time, the lefty was subject to some trade speculation as the Yankees toyed with dealing pending free agents due to them sitting at fifth place in the AL East at the time of the trade deadline despite a decent 55-51 record. Ultimately, of course, no deal came together for the lefty, who went on to struggle to a 4.30 ERA and 6.46 FIP down the stretch last year. Looking ahead to 2024, Peralta figures to be part of San Diego’s late inning mix alongside the likes of Yuki Matsui and Robert Suarez as the bullpen looks to bounce back from the loss of Josh Hader earlier this winter.
  • The Giants hired recently-retired Astros manager Dusty Baker in a special assistant role last month, and the longtime skipper spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) in Houston recently about his move to San Francisco. Baker indicated that while Houston remains a “second home” to him, a key factor in his decision to join the Giants is the club’s proximity to Sacramento, his hometown. “Getting older, you start thinking about enjoying your life, enjoying your grandchildren,” Baker said, as relayed by McTaggart. “But I still have something, you know, to give to the game and make a living in a part-time capacity.” Baker’s hiring in San Francisco is a homecoming in more ways than one, as he served as manager of the Giants for ten seasons, from 1993 to 2002. He won three NL Manager of the Year awards throughout his tenure with the Giants and led the team to a World Series appearance in his final year with the club.

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