Archives for 2024

Mets Outright Austin Adams

By Darragh McDonald | February 11, 2024 at 9:04am CDT

TODAY: Adams has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, the Mets announced. Adams has apparently decided to forego his opt-out opportunity and will remain with the organization, and attend Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

FEBRUARY 6: Right-hander Austin Adams was designated for assignment by the Mets, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. That move opens a roster spot for Jake Diekman, whose previously-reported signing has now been officially announced by the club.

Adams, 33 in May, just signed with the Mets at the end of November. His contract is a non-guaranteed split deal, meaning he will earn different salaries depending on whether he’s in the majors or the minors. The exact figures of Adams’ contract haven’t been reported, but deals of this nature often feature a modest major league salary but the minor league salary is significantly larger than what the average minor leaguer would make.

While it might seem strange to sign a player and then cut him from the roster a few months later, the club is usually hoping for the player to pass through waivers unclaimed and then remain in the organization as non-roster depth. Adams has more than three years of service time, meaning he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency. But since he has less than five years of service time, exercising that right would mean walking away from the money remaining on his deal.

For an example of this recently playing out, Austin Wynns signed a split deal with the Reds in December which will pay him $950K in the majors and $300K in the minors. A couple of weeks later, Wynns was designated for assignment and then outrighted after going unclaimed on waivers. Per the minor league CBA that was agreed to by MLB and MLBPA last April, the minimum salary of a Triple-A player is just under $36K, meaning Wynns will be making almost 10 times that even if he never gets his roster spot back. There’s been no reporting of him electing free agency since he was outrighted over a month ago, so he has presumably decided to accept and keep that $300K salary locked in as a floor for himself.

The Mets will be hoping the same happens with Adams, though there’s also a risk that some other club would claim him off waivers. That happened to the Orioles last year when they signed Jake Cave to a split deal, tried to get him off the roster but saw the Phillies swoop in with a waiver claim. If any club is particularly intrigued by the current deal Adams is on, they will have an opportunity to get him. The Mets will have one week to work out a trade or pass him through waivers.

Adams has 114 1/3 innings of major league experience to this point in his career, having allowed 4.17 earned runs per nine. His career strikeout rate of 33.1% is quite strong, but he’s paired that with notable control issues. His 14.6% walk rate is on the high side and he also amazingly plunked 24 hitters while with the Padres in 2021. That was the most of any pitcher in any season dating back to 1910, even though Adams only threw 52 2/3 innings of relief.

That doesn’t seem to have deterred the Mets, who appear to be taking a gamble this offseason in buying low on pitchers with control issues. Diekman has a 13.3% walk rate in his career while Shintaro Fujinami, also signed to a one-year deal, walked 12.6% of batters faced in his first MLB season. Yohan Ramírez, acquired in a small trade, also has big walk numbers. The same applies to guys who signed minor league deals like Cole Sulser, Yacksel Ríos, Chad Smith and Andre Scrubb. Adams may soon join that latter group as non-roster depth pitchers whom the Mets will be hoping to help harness their stuff.

The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Competition

By Nick Deeds | February 10, 2024 at 10:58pm CDT

With left-hander Shota Imanaga poised to join Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks in the Cubs’ rotation in place of Marcus Stroman this season after the veteran righty signed with the Yankees last month, one spot remains open in the club’s starting rotation with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp for Spring Training next week. While it’s not impossible to imagine a surprise trade for or signing of an arm such as Shane Bieber (who the Cubs were connected to earlier this winter) or Jordan Montgomery, all indications point toward the Cubs turning their attention towards a reunion with Cody Bellinger at this point in the offseason.

Should Chicago enter the 2024 campaign with only their internal rotation options, here’s a look at who could be under consideration to join the starting five:

Drew Smyly

The 34-year-old left-hander, in some ways, appears to be the obvious choice for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Signed to a two-year, $19MM contract last winter, Smyly started 23 games for Chicago last year and enjoyed a great deal of success early in the season, including a 10-strikeout game in late April where the southpaw came fell just four outs short of a perfect game. Through 15 starts, Smyly had a strong 3.38 ERA and a decent FIP of 4.33, though his strikeout rate of just 19.9% raised some eyebrows.

Unfortunately for Smyly, the wheels came off from there for him. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 6.88 FIP in 35 innings of work across his next eight appearances and found himself demoted to the bullpen, where he found some solid success in short relief. In sixteen relief appearances from August 13 onward, Smyly dominated with a 1.13 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work and a 33.7% strikeout rate. Those strong relief outings didn’t translate to better performance out of the rotation, however, as Smyly surrendered 10 runs in just four innings of work across his final two starts of the season on August 22 and October 1.

Given Smyly’s superlative results out of the bullpen late in the season and his pronounced struggles as a member of the rotation, it seems unlikely that the Cubs would offer Smyly the inside track to the fifth starter role entering the 2024 campaign, though it’s possible he could earn the role through a combination of strong performance this spring and injuries to other options.

Hayden Wesneski

Wesneski won a camp battle for the club’s fifth starter spot last spring, beating out veteran right-hander Adrian Sampson for the role. Wesneski’s opportunity in the rotation came on the heels of a stellar debut late in the 2022 season, shortly after Chicago acquired him from the Yankees at the trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. In six appearances down the stretch for the Cubs that year, Wesneski dominated to a 2.18 ERA and 3.20 FIP while striking out 25% of batters faced.

Unfortunately, Wesneski’s 2023 audition for a rotation job did not go nearly as well, as he allowed a 5.33 ERA and 5.96 FIP across 50 2/3 innings of work over 11 appearances (10 starts) to open the season. Wesneski was moved to multi-inning relief shortly there after and would make just one start (which lasted only two innings) the rest of the season, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work over his final 23 appearances. It’s not hard to imagine Wesneski returning to the starting rotation at some point in the future, as the 26-year-old remains under club control through the 2028 campaign, though it appears likely he has been surpassed by other youngsters on the rotational depth chart for the time being.

Javier Assad

The most experienced arm on this list outside of Smyly, the 26-year-old Assad made his big league debut in 2022 and pitched decently in a nine-appearance cup of coffee where he posted a 3.11 ERA and 4.49 FIP over 37 2/3 innings of work. Assad competed with Sampson and Wesneski for the fifth starter role out of camp last year, though his bid for the role was complicated by a detour to participate in the World Baseball Classic for Team Mexico.

Assad’s time in the tournament saw him dazzle with 5 2/3 scoreless innings of work as a multi-inning reliever. He struck out six on just two hits and a walk while touching 97 with his heater. The strong performance in a relief role led the Cubs to enter the season with Assad in that role, though he struggled to a 9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 innings across his first three appearances for Chicago last year, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A.

Upon returning to the majors in early May, Assad dominated out of the bullpen for the next three months, posting a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work across 16 appearances despite a 4.01 FIP. The Cubs then moved him to the rotation for the majority of the stretch run, and the right-hander held his own in the role with a 2.88 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 59 1/3 innings of work across the season’s final two months. Assad’s quality work in the rotation down the stretch with Chicago last summer should give him the opportunity to earn the final spot in the club’s rotation this spring, though its possible the Cubs value his versatility as a player who’s had success swinging in and out of the rotation throughout his young career.

Jordan Wicks

Chicago’s first round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has the most impressive prospect pedigree of any of the club’s likely fifth starter options this spring. The southpaw has quickly climbed the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year with just 48 starts in the minor leagues under his belt, leading to some top 100 prospect buzz this winter with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranking Wicks as the #41 prospect in the entire sport, just five spots behind Kyle Harrison of the Giants. That impressive ranking is largely backed up by Wicks’ performance on the field. In 20 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA in 91 1/3 innings of work while punching out 26.5% of batters faced.

The lefty’s major league debut went nearly as well, as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.95 FIP in 33 innings of work across his first six starts in the big leagues, though he struck out just 17% of batters faced during that time. Unfortunately, Wicks suffered the first blow-up start of his big league career in his final start of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits and one walk in just 1 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers. That left him with a uninspiring 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP across his first taste of big league action, though he did generate grounders at a solid 46.8% clip during that time.

Given the success he’s flashed in the majors and his prospect pedigree, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs hand Wicks the keys to the final spot in Chicago’s rotation this spring, though its possible his low strikeout rate in the majors and ugly final start last year lead the club to believe the 24-year-old southpaw, who has pitched just 33 innings at the Triple-A level to this point in his career, needs more time to develop in the minors before joining the rotation full time.

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The aforementioned four arms appear to be the most likely internal options for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot to open the season, though there are at handful of dark horse options worth a mention as well. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton was the club’s first round pick in the 2022 draft and is generally regarded even better than Wicks after he dominated the lower minors to the tune of a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts last year. With that being said, the 22-year-old has no experience above the Double-A level, where he made just six starts last year, and has not yet been stretched out to the level required for a big league starting pitcher as he topped 75 pitches in an outing just three times last year.

Ben Brown is another prospect who has gotten top-100 buzz for the Cubs. Unlike Horton, he’s already on the 40-man roster and has reached the Triple-A level, though he struggled to a 5.33 ERA at the level last year while walking 15.8% of batters faced at the level. Porter Hodge and Caleb Kilian are two other starting pitching prospects already on Chicago’s 40-man roster, though Hodge has yet to pitch above the Double-A level and Kilian has struggled to a 12.42 ERA across six appearances in the majors, leaving each far more likely to open the season in the minors.

Nick Gordon Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Twins

By Nick Deeds | February 10, 2024 at 7:53pm CDT

Utilityman Nick Gordon has lost his arbitration hearing against the Twins, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll receive a $900K salary in 2024 after filing at $1.25MM. MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz projected Gordon for a $1MM salary in arbitration this winter, though arbiters have to pick between the numbers filed by player and team and cannot choose a midpoint figure.

Gordon, 28, qualified for arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason as a Super Two player. The top 22% of players with between two and three years of service time are given Super Two status, which grants them an additional year of arbitration eligibility. The 28-year-old’s first trip through arbitration this winter comes on the heels of a lost season in 2023 where Gordon did not appear in the majors after May 17 due to a fractured shin he sustained after fouling a ball off his leg during that day’s game against the Dodgers. Gordon struggled to a .176/.185/.319 slash line during his 34-game stint with the club last season, though he had begun to heat up somewhat with an .805 OPS and six extra base hits in his previous 15 games entering the day of the injury.

The lost season in 2023 belies the breakout season Gordon enjoyed in 2022. After being selected fifth overall in the 2014 draft, Gordon was a mainstay on top prospect lists for several years but stalled out at the Triple-A level in 2018, where he’d remain until getting his first crack at a major league role in 2021. While Gordon’s numbers in a bench role that season were hardly eye-opening, he nonetheless entered the 2022 campaign as a member of the club’s Opening Day roster. Gordon opened the season as a part-time player who mainly played left and center field, but eventually grew into more of a regular role with the club after slashing .302/.348/.535 across a 31-game stretch from late May until early July.

After that hot stretch, Gordon fell back to Earth a bit as he slashed a decent .266/.315/.425 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers coincided with a noticeable bump in playing time; while Gordon started just 55 of the club’s 94 contests prior to the All Star break, he drew 58 starts across the 69 regular season games the club played following the break. Altogether, Gordon stepped to the plate 443 times in 2022 while appearing at every position on the diamond except for first base and catcher. In doing so, the switch-hitter slashed a respectable .272/.316/.427 that was good for a 111 wRC+.

Turning back to the coming campaign, the Twins will enjoy some short-term savings on Gordon’s 2024 salary, while the utilityman will face somewhat reduced earning power in future trips through arbitration due to the lower starting point being used as a base for raises in future trips through arbitration, which he is slated to go through three more times before he’s schedule to hit free agency following the 2027 season. Updates on Gordon’s health were relatively few and far between throughout the 2023 campaign after he was placed on the 60-day injured list back in May, but he figures to be ready for Spring Training and enter the season on the club’s bench alongside the likes of Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro.

Gordon’s hearing was the only one scheduled for the Twins this winter, though six more cases are slated to be heard around the league next week. Of course, some of the players and clubs remaining could agree to a deal to avoid a hearing entirely, as Adolis Garcia and Jonathan India did earlier this week with the Rangers and Reds, respectively. While most clubs operate under a “file and trial” system where they don’t hold contract discussions after last month’s deadline to file salary figures for the 2024 campaign, that moratorium on negotiations typically doesn’t apply to multi-year deals like the two-year pacts India and Garcia both signed. Players have enjoyed some considerable collective success to this point in the process, winning seven of the ten hearings that have taken place to this point.

NL West Notes: Kershaw, Peralta, Baker

By Nick Deeds | February 10, 2024 at 6:59pm CDT

Longtime face of the franchise Clayton Kershaw reunited with the Dodgers earlier this week on a two-year deal, ending the uncertainty that lingered surrounding the southpaw’s future throughout the offseason. Kershaw recently spoke to reporters, including Juan Toribio of MLB.com, regarding the difficult decisions he had to make this offseason regarding surgery and his future as a player.

As relayed by Toribio, Kershaw noted that thoughts of retirement weighed heavily on him for the first time in his career, and that he took his time deciding whether or not to undergo shoulder surgery, which he indicated was necessary to continue his career but wouldn’t have been required from him to partake in day-to-day activities such as catch with his children. Toribio added that Kershaw’s difficult start against the Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the NLDS, where he surrendered six runs while recording just one out, played a role in the southpaw’s decision to return to the Dodgers for a 17th season in the majors.

Toribio indicates that potentially parting ways with the only club he’s pitched for as a professional and pitching for his hometown Rangers held some appeal for Kershaw, but that ultimately the Dodgers’ flurry of activity this offseason played a role in convincing the veteran lefty to remain in L.A. for the 2024 campaign.

“This offseason has been pretty amazing to watch, honestly. There’s definitely a part of me that wanted to be a part of that,” Kershaw told reporters, as relayed by Toribio.

Kershaw isn’t expected to return to a big league mound until the late summer, with Toribio noting that “sometime in July” is the earliest he could pitch for L.A. in 2024. The left-hander is currently slated to ramp his throwing progression up sometime next month and will join the team on homestands during his rehab. The club’s offseason overhaul of their pitching staff leaves them with plenty of options to hold down the fort in the starting rotation during Kershaw’s absence. Though right-hander Walker Buehler is expected to start the season on the injured list, offseason additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and James Paxton are currently slated to pitch in the rotation alongside sophomore righty Bobby Miller and an addition young arm such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone come the start of the regular season.

More from around the NL West…

The Padres brought in left-hander Wandy Peralta on a four-year deal earlier this week, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that this is hardly the first time the club has pursued the veteran southpaw. According to Lin, San Diego’s interest in Peralta dates back to the 2023 trade deadline. At the time, the lefty was subject to some trade speculation as the Yankees toyed with dealing pending free agents due to them sitting at fifth place in the AL East at the time of the trade deadline despite a decent 55-51 record. Ultimately, of course, no deal came together for the lefty, who went on to struggle to a 4.30 ERA and 6.46 FIP down the stretch last year. Looking ahead to 2024, Peralta figures to be part of San Diego’s late inning mix alongside the likes of Yuki Matsui and Robert Suarez as the bullpen looks to bounce back from the loss of Josh Hader earlier this winter.
The Giants hired recently-retired Astros manager Dusty Baker in a special assistant role last month, and the longtime skipper spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) in Houston recently about his move to San Francisco. Baker indicated that while Houston remains a “second home” to him, a key factor in his decision to join the Giants is the club’s proximity to Sacramento, his hometown. “Getting older, you start thinking about enjoying your life, enjoying your grandchildren,” Baker said, as relayed by McTaggart. “But I still have something, you know, to give to the game and make a living in a part-time capacity.” Baker’s hiring in San Francisco is a homecoming in more ways than one, as he served as manager of the Giants for ten seasons, from 1993 to 2002. He won three NL Manager of the Year awards throughout his tenure with the Giants and led the team to a World Series appearance in his final year with the club.

Yankees, Dodgers Had Interest In Josh Hader Prior To Astros Deal

By Nick Deeds | February 10, 2024 at 5:26pm CDT

New Astros relief ace Josh Hader made an appearance on Foul Territory earlier this week during which he discussed his free agency and some of the other teams that pursued him prior to him signing in Houston on a five-year deal last month. Among those teams, Hader noted, were the Dodgers and Yankees. Hader went on to indicate that while those clubs weren’t the only ones to express interest in him throughout the offseason, no other suitor matched the aggressiveness of the Astros, whose $95MM offer broke the record for present-day value for a relief pitcher.

It’s hardly a shock that the Dodgers and Yankees both checked in on the 29-year-old hurler this winter. A five-time All Star and three-time NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader broke into the majors with the Brewers in 2017 and posted a dominant 2.08 ERA across 47 2/3 innings of work during that rookie campaign. The lefty hasn’t looked back since and has posted an incredible 2.50 ERA and 2.73 FIP while collecting 165 saves across 349 appearances during his career. Hader leads all relievers with an incredible 42.2% strikeout rate since his career began back in 2017, and is coming off an otherworldly platform season where he posted a microscopic 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances.

Both clubs were known to be interested in adding relief help this winter and certainly had the financial resources available to get a deal done, though they ultimately opted to look elsewhere rather than offer Hader the sort of nine-figure deal that would’ve topped Houston’s offer. Hader’s deal with the Astros served as a catalyst for the rest of the high-leverage relief market, and upwards of a dozen bullpen arms with late-inning experience have come off the market since then including the likes of Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, and David Robertson. In that frenzy of activity, the Dodgers came away with right-hander Ryan Brasier, who dominated to a 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances with the club last year. Meanwhile, the Yankees swung a deal to acquire southpaw Caleb Ferguson from L.A. on the same day the Dodgers landed Brasier.

Both Brasier and Ferguson are quality arms with plenty of late-inning experience under their belts, though neither has the sort of pedigree offered by Hader. While it’s not impossible to imagine either club making another addition to their relief mix before Opening Day, the surefire options still available in free agency are somewhat few and far between. Former Astros right-hander Ryne Stanek is among the options remaining and sports a solid 2.90 ERA over the last three seasons, though the market is largely dominated by bounceback candidates such as Brad Hand and Mychal Givens at this stage of the offseason.

Should either the Dodgers or Yankees decide to further bolster their relief corps in the coming weeks, one possible option who still lingers on the market would be Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen, who the club has reportedly shown a willingness to shop this winter. The Dodgers were connected to Jansen, who spent the first twelve seasons of his career with the club before signing with the Braves prior to the 2022 season, earlier in the offseason. The same can’t be said of the Yankees, though it is worth pointing out that the longtime AL East rivals have shown an increased willingness to trade with each other in recent years, including a deal that sent Alex Verdugo to the Bronx earlier this winter. As a 14-year MLB veteran with 420 career saves and a 3.63 ERA across 51 appearances in Boston last year, Jansen would provide an upgrade to the relief mix of either club, though he’s owed a hefty $16MM in the final year of his contract this season.

James Paxton Discusses Dodgers Contract, Physical

By Nick Deeds | February 10, 2024 at 4:00pm CDT

Newly-signed Dodgers southpaw James Paxton spoke to reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) today regarding his recent one-year deal with the club and the physical he underwent that led to the lefty’s guarantee dropping from $11MM to just $7MM on the deal. Paxton noted during the scrum that the reduction in the contract’s guarantee wasn’t due to any one specific injury concern the Dodgers had but instead was due to the combination of his history with Tommy John surgery, which kept him away from a big league mound for almost two entire seasons, and the knee issue that ended his 2023 campaign in early September.

“I’m an older player now, and I’m not perfect anymore,” Paxton told reporters, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “…So there’s things that have kind of built up over the years.”

In spite of the concerns that stemmed from his physical, Paxton indicated that he has “no doubt” that he’ll be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign, adding that he feels “strong and ready” as he enters camp. Per his revised, incentive-laden deal, Paxton will receive a $2MM bonus for being on the roster for either the start of the Korea series against the Padres, which begins on March 20, or the club’s stateside opener against the Cardinals the following week.

Paxton, 35, has been held back by injuries frequently throughout his career. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 37th overall selection in the 2009 draft, the southpaw made his big league debut as a member of the Mariners back in 2013 and immediately impressed with a 1.50 ERA in a four-start cup of coffee. Through his age-30 season, Paxton regularly impressed when he was on the mound, showing the quality results of a #2 starter with a 3.50 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Paxton was limited to just 733 innings of work across those seven seasons by injury woes, which would only intensify as the calendar flipped to 2020. From 2020-22, Paxton managed just six appearances and 21 2/3 innings due to injuries.

The big lefty returned to the mound as a member of the Red Sox in May of last year and early in the season appeared to have made a triumphant return to the dominant form of his younger days. Through his first ten starts of the season, Paxton posted an impressive 2.73 ERA over 56 innings of work with a whopping 29% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the wheels came off for the veteran southpaw after the All Star break as he struggled to a 6.98 ERA and 6.16 FIP in 40 innings of work across his final nine starts of the season before he was shut down for the season with the aforementioned bout of knee inflammation following a start where Paxton allowed six runs while recording just four outs.

After that brutal series of struggles down the stretch, Paxton finished the 2023 campaign with a 4.50 ERA that was almost exactly league average by measure of ERA+. While the form the lefty flashed early in the season with Boston last year would make him a playoff-caliber arm, Paxton need only repeat his full-season performance from 2023 to be a useful piece for a Dodgers club looking to add veteran innings to a rotation that figures to be dominated by young starters with little to no big league experience like Bobby Miller and Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as players with substantial injury histories of their own like Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler.

That rotation mix offers little in the way of certainty, but young arms like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove appear well-positioned to help out as needed throughout the season. An opportunity seems likely to be immediately available for those youngsters as both Buehler and Kershaw are expected to open the season on the injured list, though club officials have indicated that Buehler’s stay on the shelf could be a relatively short one.

Padres Interested In Noah Syndergaard

By Mark Polishuk | February 10, 2024 at 2:06pm CDT

The Padres still have plenty of question marks in the rotation as Spring Training begins, and such free agent starters as Hyun Jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen, and Eric Lauer have all reportedly been on the team’s radar. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds another veteran arm to that list, as the Padres have also shown interest in Noah Syndergaard.

Reports indicated back in November that several teams had already checked in on Syndergaard, though the Pirates and now the Padres are the only clubs publicly linked to the righty’s market. It is fair to suggest that Syndergaard may be viewed as a fallback option for many of these potential suitors, who prioritized more clearcut rotation upgrades before turning to more speculative bounce-back candidates like Syndergaard.

The 31-year-old threw only 88 2/3 innings over 18 starts with the Dodgers and Guardians last year, as blister problems sent him to the injured list for about seven weeks and Syndergaard’s season ended prematurely when Cleveland released him at the end of August. An excellent 4.9% walk rate was just about the only highlight of Syndergaard’s 2023 campaign, as he posted a 6.50 ERA and a tiny 14.3% strikeout rate while allowing a lot of hard contact and averaging only 92.2mph of velocity on his fastball.

It was a disappointing step back for the former Mets ace, who was once one of the National League’s top pitchers before injuries took a toll on his career. A Tommy John surgery cost Syndergaard virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons, though he had at least decent numbers (3.94 ERA, 5.5% walk rate) over 134 2/3 frames with the Angels and Phillies in 2022. However, the red flags were already in present in drops in strikeouts, velocity, and barrel rate, so Syndergaard ended signing a one-year, $13MM deal with the Dodgers last winter.

Acquiring Syndergaard wouldn’t exactly guarantee more stability for the Padres’ collection of arms, given this recent track record. Expecting a return to his Cy Young candidate form is looking increasingly far-fetched, yet given the Friars’ pitching needs and budgetary limitations, Syndergaard might be the kind of relatively inexpensive veteran who could be a fit at the back end of the rotation.

Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Michael King line up as the top three in the rotation, though King has a limited track record as a starting pitcher. Projected fourth/fifth starter candidates Pedro Avila, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez have limited track records in the big leagues altogether — Avila has thrown only 63 2/3 frames across four MLB seasons, and Brito (90 1/3 IP) and Vazquez (37 2/3 IP) only made their MLB debuts with the Yankees last season. As Acee notes, simply covering innings is going to be a challenge for San Diego even if everyone stays healthy, so signing Syndergaard or a comparable veteran might be almost a necessity to help lessen the workload for the more inexperienced starters.

NL East Notes: Culberson, E-Rod, Lugo, JDM, Mesa

By Mark Polishuk | February 10, 2024 at 12:52pm CDT

It wasn’t surprising that longtime clubhouse favorite Charlie Culberson rejoined the Braves on a minor league deal last month, though eyebrows were raised at the news that Culberson was attempting to become a pitcher after 11 MLB seasons as a utilityman. In an interview with Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Culberson said he began to pursue a pitching in earnest last August when he was playing with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, and he wasn’t entirely alien to the process given his 7 1/3 career innings of mop-up work at the big league level. “I loved pitching growing up, loved pitching through high school and here I am now getting a chance to try it on now toward — I’m not going to say ‘toward the end of my career’ but at this point in my career, I’m getting to try pitching,” Culberson said.

Culberson turns 35 in April, and Atlanta’s stacked lineup meant that he appeared in just one Major League game in 2023, despite several months on the active roster. It remains to be seen if pitching will provide Culberson with any clearer path to playing time, yet his fastball clocks in at 94mph, and his repertoire also consists of a split changeup and a cutter. He has also spent the last six months working with coaches and pitching instructors, and embracing the inherent difficulties of learning a new craft so deep into his career.

“For me, this has been a challenge making a position change, but I’m still playing baseball. I know how tough that is transitioning, and I’m sure it would be probably tougher transitioning out of baseball,” Culberson said. “Everything is just not gonna come easy for a lot of us in life, and at some point, you have to be ready and able to do something different, do something that’s not comfortable. Get out of your comfort zone.”

AL Central Notes: Vazquez, Malloy, Bubic

By Mark Polishuk | February 10, 2024 at 11:33am CDT

Now with more clarity on their broadcasting situation established for 2024, the Twins have started to make some significant offseason moves, including the Jorge Polanco trade and the signing of Carlos Santana. Since rumors about Polanco’s possible departure have swirled for months, it stands to reason that the Twins could also now finally move other trade candidates as Max Kepler or Christian Vazquez, though The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman writes that there hasn’t been any real steam on a possible salary-shedding Vazquez trade.”

Minnesota was reportedly speaking with teams about potential Vazquez deals back in November, though Gleeman and Dan Hayes wrote at the time that a trade may not be too likely, both due to Vazquez’s $20MM in remaining salary and the catcher’s very disappointing 2023 campaign. In their most recent piece, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a Vazquez trade may still be something of a longshot, with the Twins’ desire to retain catching depth also acting as a factor. If Vazquez was dealt, Ryan Jeffers would step into the starting catching role and either rookie Jair Camargo or another veteran addition would be the backup, so Minnesota might prefer to stand pat.

Make Or Break Year: Tyler O’Neill

By Mark Polishuk | February 10, 2024 at 9:43am CDT

At this time two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was viewed as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield. O’Neill had shown flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, but it seemingly all came together for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning defense in left field. This all-around performance translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by only 13 players in the sport, and O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.

Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks about a multi-year contract extension during the 2021-22 offseason, though it wasn’t known if the two sides floated a deal to cover just O’Neill’s arbitration years or beyond. (The Cards subsequently won an arb hearing against O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM salary for the outfielder in 2022, rather than his desired $4.15MM figure.) Given how the next two seasons played out for O’Neill, St. Louis might have caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, though it’s safe to say that neither side was particularly satisfied with the outfielder’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.

O’Neill has hit only .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a slightly below-average 98 wRC+. The key statistic there might be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill played in just 168 of a possible 324 games due to several injuries. A hip impingement and a hamstring strain limited him to 96 games in 2022, and then a lower back sprain and a foot sprain led to more injured list time in 2023 and only 72 appearances.

Injuries also hampered O’Neill prior to 2021, thus making him a tricky player to properly evaluate. Does that career year serve as an example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever stay healthy, or was even that giant 2021 campaign perhaps something of an outlier even beyond O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL? A hefty .366 BABIP puts something of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even allowing for the fact that his speed and baserunning ability helped him naturally turn a few extra grounders into base hits. His walk rate was also well below the league average in 2021, though curiously, O’Neill posted much more solid walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as the 2020 season.

The number that has stayed consistent, unfortunately for O’Neill, is his strikeout rate. Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout rate ranks seventh among all batters with at least 1600 PA. While his K% has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s approach has curbed his effectiveness at the plate and made him something of a one-dimensional hitter.

It probably also hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent much of the 2023 season hearing his name in trade rumors. Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down year in 2022, O’Neill suddenly seemed to become expendable, even if St. Louis was naturally still putting a significant asking price on his services. It isn’t known what offers the Cards might’ve received for O’Neill at the time or what trades might have been floated or seriously discussed, yet in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis might’ve been better served in moving O’Neill while his trade value was a little higher.

The outfielder’s rough 2023 season only diminished that value, and the year got off to an immediate awkward start when O’Neill was benched for a game for what manager Oliver Marmol felt was a lack of baserunning effort the previous night. That situation seemed like a harbinger for the end of O’Neill’s time with the organization, yet he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill at the trade deadline even through the struggling club made some other sell-off moves.

A trade didn’t materialize until December, when the Red Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Baseball America ranks Robertson as the 25th-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, yet the trade return has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for the Cards considering what the return might have been for O’Neill even last offseason. From Boston’s perspective, of course, the deal could be seen as an intriguing buy-low situation. The Royals and (O’Neill’s former team) Mariners were two of the other teams publicly linked to O’Neill’s trade market, and it’s safe to assume that several other teams checked in with the St. Louis front office.

Health is obviously the biggest x-factor for O’Neill going forward, yet Fenway Park is a pretty nice landing spot for a player looking to regain his hitting stroke. It’s easy to imagine O’Neill suddenly launching a few homers over the Green Monster, though that same wall will also provide an interesting challenge to O’Neill in his regular role as the new Sox left fielder. After winning Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers were much closer to average over the last two seasons, so he’ll also be looking for a rebound in the field as well as at the plate.

O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season. He’ll have all the opportunity in the world with a Red Sox team that seems to be something in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and trying to legitimately contend, and it can be argued that buying low on a recent MVP candidate can be slotted into either direction. Another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year deals going forward, yet if he can avoid the IL and show anything close to his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a nice multi-year contract could be in offing next winter.

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