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Archives for February 2024

White Sox Sign Corey Knebel, Dominic Leone

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The White Sox announced Tuesday that they’ve signed veteran right-handed relievers Corey Knebel and Dominic Leone to minor league contracts. Both will be in big league camp as non-roster invitees.

Knebel, a client of Excel Sports Management, didn’t pitch last season after suffering a capsule tear in his shoulder with the Phillies late in the 2022 campaign. He pitched 42 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with the Phils that season and saved a dozen games. The 32-year-old been severely limited by injuries in recent years, including Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2019 season and a lat strain that sent him to the 60-day IL and kept him to just 25 2/3 innings with the Dodgers in 2021.

Lengthy as Knebel’s injury track record is becoming, there’s little questioning his ability when healthy enough to take the mound. A 2017 All-Star who saved 39 games for the Brewers and led the NL with 76 appearances, Knebel has a career 3.26 ERA and 31.8% strikeout rate in 306 2/3 MLB frames. His 11.2% walk rate is too high, but he’s worked around that flaw with plenty of missed bats and weak contact over the years. His 3.17 SIERA and 3.44 FIP both generally align with his strong ERA, and if Knebel is back to full strength he could be a nice low-cost bullpen pickup for a rebuilding ChiSox club.

Leone, also 32, pitched for the Mets, Angels and Mariners in 2023, working to a combined 4.67 ERA with a 23% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate in 54 innings. It wasn’t his best work by a long shot, although Leone’s 2.33 HR/9 mark and jarring 21.2% homer-to-flyball rate both seem due for regression toward his career levels (1.06 and 11.8%, respectively).

Looking beyond the shaky bottom-line results, Leone, who’s represented by ACES, maintained his velocity (95.7 mph average fastball) and posted respective swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 16% and 35.3% — both excellent numbers. Prior to the ’23 campaign, he’d enjoyed a nice two-year run with the Giants, working to a 2.71 ERA in 103 frames with similar K/BB numbers and velocity. The spike in home runs last season was Leone’s primary downfall, and while a potential move to the launching pad at Guaranteed Rate Field won’t help in that regard, he’s had success in homer-friendly venues like Toronto in the past. On a no-risk minor league deal, he’s a perfectly sensible addition.

The White Sox traded righty Gregory Santos and lefty Aaron Bummer this offseason, subtracting two of the only locks for their bullpen from the roster in exchange for a plethora of younger players. They also could deploy Garrett Crochet as a starting pitcher, further thinning out the bullpen mix. Knebel and Leone will join fellow veteran Jesse Chavez as the most interesting NRIs in camp this spring. That trio will compete for roster spots in a relief corps where free-agent signees John Brebbia and Tim Hill are currently the only experienced names with any semblance of consistent MLB success.

The Opener: Cooper, Padres, MLBTR Chat

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On the heels of an overnight splash on the free agent market, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for today:

1. Cooper nearing a decision?

One area of the free agent market that remains fairly deep as Spring Training begins is the first base market, where the likes of Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, and Donovan Solano linger as available options. According to Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald, the list of available veteran first baseman in free agency could thin out a bit in the coming days, as he writes that slugger Garrett Cooper “could make a decision soon” with around five teams in the market for the 33-year-old’s services. Cooper struggled somewhat in 2023, slashing a slightly-below-average .251/.304/.419 in 123 games with the Marlins and Padres last year.

Prior to that dip in production last year, however, Cooper had established himself as a reliably above-average hitter at first base who could also moonlight in the outfield corners. From 2019-22, Cooper slashed .274/.350/.444. The righty-swinging slugger sports a notable platoon split for his career, as he’s hit .286/.338/478 (120 wRC+) against lefties and .262/.337/.417 versus righties (107 wRC+). It’s solid production against pitchers of both handedness, but he’s been particularly potent against southpaws. Speculatively speaking, Cooper could be a sensible target for clubs like the Red Sox, Pirates, or Guardians which struggled against left-handed pitching last year and could use another veteran bat in the mix for reps in a corner spot.

2. Preller to hold spring presser:

Padres president of baseball operations AJ Preller is set to be made available to the media at noon CT today, per a team announcement. The Padres have faced a great deal of upheaval this offseason as they watched three-time Reliever of the Year award winner Josh Hader and rotation arms Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez all depart via free agency. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell is likely to follow them out the door, setting the stage for further turnover, but as of now he remains unsigned. To help address the club’s sudden exodus of pitching talent, Preller dealt superstar slugger Juan Soto to the Yankees back in December alongside center fielder Trent Grisham.

That left San Diego to enter camp with just two outfielders on the club’s 40-man roster in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar, though the club did reunite with Jurickson Profar yesterday on a one-year deal to help fill out its outfield mix somewhat. Still, with question marks remaining in the outfield, at DH, and in the rotation, plenty of uncertainty remains for the Padres as Spring Training begins. Preller’s presser this afternoon could begin to shed some light on the club’s plans for those areas headed into the season.

3. MLBTR Chat:

While teams around the league gear up for Spring Training, a handful of the winter’s top free agents remain unsigned and plenty of offseason shopping lists around the league remain unfulfilled. Are you wondering if there’s more in store for your team as camps open in Arizona and Florida? If so, tune in this afternoon when MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosts a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after its completed.

Chris Getz Discusses Kopech, Crochet

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White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters this morning. His implication that Dylan Cease was likely to remain on the roster into the season was the most notable development, but Getz also addressed a pair of Cease’s potential rotation mates.

The first-year GM said he still views Michael Kopech as a starting pitcher (link via James Fegan of Sox Machine). Chicago moved the hard-throwing righty to the bullpen at the tail end of a dismal 2023 campaign. Kopech posted a 5.16 ERA while walking more than 15% of opposing hitters in 26 starts through the first week of September. Manager Pedro Grifol deployed him in short stints — three relief appearances and a deliberately brief start as an opener — to close the year. Kopech was tagged for seven runs in 3 2/3 frames before undergoing a season-ending knee procedure.

That was a minor cyst removal surgery that isn’t expected to affect Kopech’s preparation for the season. The bigger question is whether he’ll be able to rebound from a performance perspective. Kopech showed some promise over 25 starts two seasons ago. He turned in a 3.54 ERA, albeit with a middling 21.3% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk percentage, in 2022. That was Kopech’s first full season working from the rotation. The hope was that he’d take a step forward with greater experience in the role. It did not happen last year.

Kopech built up to starting after working in relief in the early portion of his MLB career. Injuries, most notably a Tommy John procedure, wiped out his 2019-20 campaigns. The Sox used him out of the bullpen in ’21 to keep his workload in check. He was quite good in that capacity, turning in a 3.50 ERA with a massive 36.1% strikeout percentage and a much more manageable 8.4% walk rate over 69 1/3 innings.

That general playbook is one which Garrett Crochet is hoping to follow. The former first-round pick has come out of the bullpen for all 72 of his MLB appearances dating back to 2020. An elbow ligament replacement cost him the ’22 season and the first six weeks last year. Shoulder inflammation sent him back to the injured list a month after he returned and kept him on the shelf into September. The Tennessee product finished the year with 12 2/3 innings over 13 appearances.

Crochet has nevertheless been vocal about his desire to battle for a rotation spot. The Sox certainly aren’t going to expect him to make 30+ starts given his limited reps over the past two seasons. However, Getz left the door open for Crochet to compete for an Opening Day rotation job.

“It was very clear he was excited to get a look as a starter and when you’ve got a player that has that type of conviction, I think you’re doing the player a disservice to ignore that,” the GM told reporters. “He needs to be built up further. He hasn’t had too many starter innings under his belt. That’s even going back to college. But he’s a special arm. He’s shown three pitches in the past, so he’s got the starter kit.” Fegan writes that Getz indicated Crochet could spend some time on optional assignment to Triple-A Charlotte as the southpaw trains for a heavier workload.

Cease leads the staff, while KBO returnee Erick Fedde slots into the middle. Kopech and Crochet join Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster (acquired from Atlanta in the Aaron Bummer trade), free agent pickup Chris Flexen, and incumbent depth starters Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint in competition for rotation work.

Royals To Reveal Plans For Proposed New Park

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The Royals are set to reveal plans for a new stadium in Kansas City’s Crossroads District tomorrow, according to reports from Anne Rogers of MLB.com (on X) and Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star. The club is holding a press conference at 2:30 pm local time. “Important details about this transformative project will be shared including renderings, economic data, and progress towards lease and community benefits agreement,” the team said (via Rogers).

McDowell writes that the targeted site is in the approximate area of the former Kansas City Star Press Pavilion. The team has not yet revealed its specific financing plan, but they’re seeking some amount of public funding via a 40-year sales tax that’ll be up for a vote in early April. That tax plan would split the money between the Royals for their intended new facility and the NFL’s Chiefs for renovations to its Arrowhead Stadium.

The Royals’ current home, Kauffman Stadium, was opened in 1973. It’s the sixth-oldest park in MLB. Fenway Park and Wrigley Field have been open for more than a century. Dodger Stadium (1962), Angel Stadium (1966) and the Oakland Coliseum (1968) each began playing host to big league clubs in the general vicinity of Kauffman’s opening. The A’s are very likely to depart the Coliseum after the upcoming season. If the Royals secure a new ballpark, that’d put Toronto’s Rogers Centre — which opened in 1989 — among the sport’s five oldest home stadiums.

Last summer, owner John Sherman told reporters that the team was hopeful of having a new park ready for the 2027 or ’28 seasons (link via The Associated Press). Sherman purchased the franchise from the late David Glass in August ’19.

The club has yet to find any on-field success during his ownership tenure, which began amidst a rebuild on the heels of their consecutive pennants and 2015 World Series win. Last season’s 106 losses tied a franchise record. The Royals have had an active offseason as they try to turn things around fairly quickly. They’ve brought in Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Adam Frazier in free agency. They saved their biggest move for last week, inking franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to a team-record guarantee in excess of $288MM to ensure he remains in K.C. through at least 2030.

Mets Notes: Diaz, Third Base, Alonso

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Edwin Díaz threw a bullpen session on the back fields at Mets camp today, opening his Spring Training build-up. The two-time All-Star told reporters he had no obstructions over the winter after missing the entire 2023 campaign.

“It was my normal offseason, I did my normal routine,” Díaz told reporters (including Tim Britton of the Athletic). “I won’t be afraid to jump, to run. … I feel great.” That was the general expectation, as Díaz considered making a push to return at the end of last season before shutting things down with New York well out of contention.

The Mets are hopeful of a better showing than last year’s 75-87 performance. Díaz’s return is one of the reasons for optimism that they can hang around the playoff mix. He was the best reliever in baseball in 2022, when he struck out more than half the hitters he faced en route to a career-low 1.31 ERA across 62 innings.

While the team is hopeful of at least remaining in the Wild Card race, they’ve opted against making another all-in push for 2024. President of baseball operations David Stearns has pointed to the upcoming season as something of a evaluative year which they expect to serve as a stepping stone to a full-fledged run in 2025. That’s perhaps most evident in the team’s approach at third base and designated hitter. They’ve left the door ajar to making a run at a veteran DH while suggesting that the likelier outcome is giving playing time to Brett Baty and Mark Vientos to gauge whether they can serve important roles on the ’25 team.

Stearns left open the possibility for “some level of competition” among the in-house options at the hot corner this afternoon (relayed by Tim Healey of Newsday). Baty enters camp as the heavy favorite for the starting job despite his disappointing season. The former first-round pick and top prospect hit .212/.275/.323 with nine home runs in 389 plate appearances over his first full big league campaign. New York sent Baty to Triple-A for a few weeks in August as his struggles mounted. He raked in that brief minor league stint but again struggled after being recalled in September.

New York hasn’t done much to bring in serious competition for Baty this offseason. Stearns mentioned Vientos, Joey Wendle and Zack Short as others who could pick up playing time at the hot corner. Vientos is regarded as a below-average defender who is better served at first base or DH. He’d see the bulk of the DH reps unless the Mets somewhat surprisingly add a veteran bat like J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler in the coming weeks. Wendle inked a $2MM free agent deal after hitting .212/.248/.306 in his second season with the Marlins. Short was a November waiver claim out of Detroit.

While Baty’s season could go in a number of directions, the Mets can feel safe about getting excellent production out of the other corner infield spot. Pete Alonso enters his platform year as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers. Last month, he and the team agreed to a $20.5MM salary to avoid a hearing in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.

Throughout the offseason, the Mets have downplayed the chances of discussing a deal beyond the 2024 campaign. Stearns reiterated that the club didn’t have much expectation of signing Alonso to an extension. He called it “probably the most likely outcome” that the three-time All-Star hit the open market (link via Chuck King of the Associated Press). “Look, when you have a really talented player, who’s really good, who’s entering his final year of club control, who happens to be represented by Scott Boras, these things generally end up into free agency and we understand that,” he added.

The Mets have expressed confidence they could retain Alonso after he hits the open market, following the process of fellow Boras Corporation client Brandon Nimmo. Assuming he posts a typical platform year, Alonso should handily surpass the $162MM guarantee which Nimmo secured and could search for a contract approaching or exceeding $250MM.

Jake Odorizzi Throws For Clubs

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Free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi is healthy and looking for a deal, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The righty reportedly threw off a mound in front of evaluators representing about a third of the clubs in the league. The Twins were one club that were there watching, per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North, though their interest level is unclear.

Odorizzi, 34 next month, is coming off an entirely missed season. He was traded from Atlanta to Texas at the end of the 2022 campaign after triggering a player option. Atlanta agreed to pay down $10MM of the $12.5MM salary on that player option, leaving Texas to pay just $2.5MM. But that money ended up wasted, as Odorizzi dealt with some arm fatigue in Spring Training and ultimately required a season-ending arthroscopic procedure on his right shoulder.

His offers will undoubtedly be limited after that lost season and shoulder injury, but it could also present a buy-low opportunity for clubs if any of them are encouraged by his health. Odorizzi has spent many years in the big leagues as a solid mid-rotation guy, having made 241 appearances since his 2012 debut, 237 of those being starts. His 1,253 1/3 innings have seen him allow 3.99 earned runs per nine, striking out 22.2% of batters faced while walking 8.1%.

Various clubs around the league are working with tighter budgets this winter due to uncertainty regarding the broadcast revenue situation, with one of those being the Twins. They opened last year with a payroll of $153MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but are reportedly trying to get that down to the $125-140MM range for this year’s opener.

They are currently at $124MM, per Roster Resource, but with a clearly diminished rotation. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all reached free agency and signed with other clubs. Chris Paddack returned from his Tommy John surgery absence late last year and could make up for those losses somewhat and the Twins acquired Anthony DeSclafani from the Mariners, but the overall group is clearly less inspiring than it was a year ago. Reporting from earlier today suggested that the club is still looking to add to their starting mix.

The Twins clearly know and like Odorizzi, as he pitched for them from 2018 to 2020. If they feel he can get back to where he was during that time, a low-cost flier would make plenty of sense. The Twins were just one club present to watch Odorizzi throw and there are plenty of others who could be a fit.

The Padres have also been slashing payroll and have lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Nick Martínez to free agency. Snell is still out there but the club’s tight budget makes it unlikely they’ll get him back or sign any other big name. The Rays have a payroll that is set to be a franchise record and they could use some more pitching. Like the Twins, they are familiar with Odorizzi from a previous stint, as he was with Tampa from 2013 to 2017. Just about any club could use an extra bit of pitching depth and Spring Training always leads to injuries that will only exacerbate those needs.

The big question will naturally be Odorizzi’s health. Beyond the recent shoulder procedure and long layoff, he’s had other issues. In 2021, he went on the injured list due to a right pronator muscle strain and some right foot soreness, whereas the 2022 season saw him miss time due to lower left leg discomfort. He topped out just over 100 innings in both of those campaigns. Thanks to those injuries and the pandemic, he hasn’t had anything close to a full starter’s workload since 2019. But he was fairly steady prior to that, tossing between 140 and 190 innings in six straight years from 2014 to 2019. His ERA finished between 3.35 and 4.49 in each of those campaigns.

Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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February 12: Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the specifics on Kershaw’s performance bonuses and escalators. The future Hall of Famer would earn a $1MM bonus for his sixth start next season, $1.5MM for each of his next three starts, and $2MM if he reaches 10 starts. A relief appearance in which he accrues at least nine outs also qualifies, protecting Kershaw in the event he follows an opener.

The $5MM base value of his 2025 player option would escalate based on his ’24 workload by the following amounts:

  • $2MM for six starts
  • $3MM apiece for seven through nine starts
  • $4MM for 10 starts

If he exercises the option, the deal includes additional bonuses for 2025 depending on the number of starts he makes in each of the next two years.

February 9: Clayton Kershaw is heading back to the Dodgers. The team announced Friday that the left-hander has re-signed on a two-year guarantee — the second season of which is a player option. Kershaw, a client of Excel Sports Management, is recovering from November shoulder surgery and isn’t expected to pitch until the second half of the season, at the earliest. He’s reportedly guaranteed $10MM on the pact: $5MM in each season of the deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Kershaw’s 2024 incentives are contingent on him making six to ten starts this season. Any increases to this year’s base salary will also be reflected in the value of his player option. Sherman further adds that between those escalators and incentives specific to the 2025 season, Kershaw could earn as much as $25MM in year two of the contract. That’d give him a total earning power of $37.5MM over the two years of the contract.

Kershaw can boost that 2024 salary to $12.5MM based on the number of games he starts this season. The number of games he starts can also boost the base value of his 2025 player option. Right-hander Tony Gonsolin was moved to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Kershaw. If and when the Dodgers need another 40-man spot, Kershaw himself can be transferred to the 60-day IL.

Assuming he’s able to suit up at some point in the second half, the 2024 season will be Kershaw’s 17th pitching for the Dodgers, who selected him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, who hasn’t reached 30 starts in a season since 2015, but the quality of his results remains largely constant. From 2009-15, Kershaw averaged 32 starts per year, won four straight ERA titles and took home three Cy Young Awards. Since 2016, he’s averaged just 24 starts per 162-game season but maintained a brilliant 2.55 ERA — including sub-2.50 marks in three of the past four seasons.

Kershaw clearly wasn’t pitching at 100% for much of the 2023 season. A shoulder strain landed Kershaw on the injured list in July, and manager Dave Roberts candidly acknowledged in September that he was pitching at less than full strength. Los Angeles limited Kershaw to five innings per start for all but one start in his return from the injured list (a 5 1/3-inning outing in his final appearance of the season). Along the way, Kershaw’s average fastball dipped to career-low levels; he averaged just 89.4 mph on his fastball in his return — including just an 88.7 mph average through his final four starts.

Diminished velocity notwithstanding, Kershaw remained quite effective. In eight post-IL starts he turned in a pristine 2.23 ERA. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were both a ways from his pre-injury levels (27.7%, 6.3%), but Kershaw looked to making the most of what he had to offer on any given day. He didn’t allow more than three runs in any of those final eight appearances and in fact held opponents to one or zero runs in six of them. The D-backs ambushed him for six runs in the first inning of his lone NLDS start, however, ending his season on a low point.

It’s not yet clear when Kershaw might be able to rejoin the Dodgers’ staff, though they’ll presumably provide an update when announcing his deal and discussing it with the media. A returning Kershaw in the second half will provide some high-end insurance for a Dodgers rotation that is teeming with uncertainty. Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be adjusting to a new culture and a new league in his debut campaign this year. Right-hander Walker Buehler is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw James Paxton is a perennial injury risk. Young righties Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt haven’t pitched full big league seasons.

As already noted, Kershaw won’t be the only potential second-half addition for the Dodgers. The aforementioned May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor tendon repair in early July but could potentially be back for the stretch run. Gonsolin, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late August, feels like a longer shot to make it back but could potentially do so in a bullpen capacity if his rehab plays out in a best-case scenario.

The Dodgers are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and are already well into the final tier of luxury tax penalization. As such, any dollars committed to Kershaw will be taxed at a 110% rate. That apparently won’t be a deterrent as they welcome the future Hall of Famer back for a 17th season.

In 2712 2/3 innings though his big league career, Kershaw owns a 210-92 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.

Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Kershaw had reached an agreement. The Athletic’s Andy McCullough reported the presence of a 2025 player option. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the terms of the deal.

Nationals Sign Jesse Winker To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have signed Jesse Winker to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. Winker is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Winker, 30, is not too far removed from being one of the better hitters in the league but he’s fallen on hard times recently as injuries have seemingly held him back. With the Reds from 2017 to 2021, he walked in 12% of his plate appearances while only going down on strikes 16.5% of the time. His .288/.385/.504 slash line in that time translates to a wRC+ of 132, indicating he was 32% better than league average in that five-year stretch. Among players with at least 1500 plate appearances over those years, only 24 had a higher wRC+.

The left-handed hitter has fallen on harder times over the past couple seasons. Cincinnati traded Winker to the Mariners going into 2022. He slumped to a .219/.344/.344 line over 547 plate appearances. Seattle flipped him to Milwaukee last winter in a challenge trade that brought in Kolten Wong. The deal didn’t work for either team. Wong struggled badly enough that Seattle released him midseason.

Winker held his spot on the Milwaukee roster all year but didn’t fare much better. He ran a career-worst .199/.320/.247 line with only one home run in 197 plate appearances. He didn’t appear in the majors again after being placed on the injured list with back spasms in late July.

Washington doesn’t have a clear option at designated hitter, making this a decent landing spot for Winker on a rebound deal. The Nats signed Joey Gallo to join Lane Thomas in the corner outfield. Stone Garrett looks like a solid right-handed complementary bat, while Winker could push for a role against righty pitching.

Giants, Amir Garrett Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants and left-hander Amir Garrett are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client will also receive an invite to Spring Training and would make a salary of $1.35MM if in the majors.

Garrett, 32 in May, has had some good years in the big leagues but his 2023 was a struggle. He started the year with the Royals and made 27 appearances for that club. His 3.33 earned run average in that time looks good at first blush, but the underlying numbers were less impressive. He struck out 25% of batters but also gave out free passes at a massive 17.9% clip. His 85.2% strand rate helped him keep some runs off the board but his 5.56 FIP and 5.10 SIERA suggested regression was due.

The Royals didn’t want that luck to run out on their watch so they released Garrett in July. He landed a minor league deal with the Guardians and made five appearances for their Triple-A club but walked four of the 21 batters he faced before getting released from that deal as well.

The control is clearly a problem but it’s nothing new, with Garrett having walked 13.2% of the batters he’s faced in his career overall. He’s still managed to be effectively wild at times, though, having racked up 67 holds dating back to his 2017 debut. He has a 26.4% strikeout rate and has also kept 44.8% of batted balls in the ground in his career. He averages in the mid-90s with his fastball and sinker but throws his slider around half the time.

He was at his best with the Reds from 2018 to 2020, posting a 3.60 ERA over 156 appearances. He struck out 30.2% of opponents in that time while keeping his walks down to 11.6%, still high but not disastrously so. He also was working in fairly high-leverage spots, earning 49 of his holds in that time. But his results have backed up in the three most recent seasons, with the control gradually getting worse.

It’s possible that Garrett has been victimized by the three-batter minimum, which was first implemented in 2020. He has held lefties to a line of .204/.327/.349 in his career whereas righties have slashed .248/.348/.465 against him.

The Giants have one established lefty in the pen in Taylor Rogers but there’s a path open for a second. Ethan Small has just four big league games of experience while Erik Miller has none. The only other lefties on the 40-man roster are Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison, who are both starters and Ray won’t even be healthy to start the season. If Garrett looks good in camp or perhaps during the minor league seasons, the Giants could find a way to use him.

Which Teams Would Benefit Most From Matt Chapman?

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Spring Training is underway for a few teams, yet a handful of free agency’s top players remain unsigned. Matt Chapman has been the clear #1 option for clubs looking to address third base all winter.

Chapman started the 2023 campaign on a blistering offensive pace that once looked as if it could vault him towards the $200MM mark. He tailed off as the calendar flipped to May, however, most often finding himself in the bottom third of the Toronto batting order by year’s end. A finger injury may have sapped some of his power, but the bigger problem is that Chapman’s swing-and-miss issues returned in full force. While he carried a league average 22.8% strikeout rate through the end of April, he fanned at a 29.8% clip from May 1 on. The end result was a characteristic Chapman season: a .240/.330/.424 batting line with a strong 10.7% walk rate but a strikeout percentage north of 28%.

Five years removed from a career-best campaign in which he hit .249/.342/.506 with 36 homers, it’s difficult to sell Chapman as a significant upside play at the dish. He’s a slightly better than average hitter whose value is heavily tied into his glove. A four-time Gold Glove winner, he rated as 12 runs better than an third baseman by DRS last season. Statcast graded him three runs above par. By both measures, he has been an a solid to elite defender in every year of his career.

A long-term bet on a player who soon turns 31 and derives much of his value from his defense has probably scared off a few teams, particularly since Chapman would require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. Yet there’s little doubt he’d be an upgrade in the next couple years over the third base situations that at least half of teams are set to deploy. Which ones have the spottiest in-house options to handle the hot corner, and could therefore benefit most from Chapman’s services?

Clear Need

  • Angels

Anthony Rendon hasn’t made 60 starts at third base in a season since 2019. Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo can see some time at the hot corner but are better served as bat-first options rotating throughout the infield. This would be a clear weakness if the Angels were one piece away from contention.

Unfortunately for the Halos, they have a handful of potentially bigger concerns. They’re still looking for rotation help. The overall depth on both the position player and pitching sides is lacking. They’re on the hook for $38MM to Rendon for another three seasons. Ownership and the front office probably don’t want to compound the issue with another significant free agent splash at third base.

  • Blue Jays

Chapman’s old team hasn’t done much to replace him. They added Justin Turner on a one-year free agent deal. He can handle a few starts at third base but is more of a part-time option heading into his age-39 season. Turner only started seven games at the hot corner with the Red Sox a year ago. While that’s primarily on account of Rafael Devers’ presence, it also points to the risk the team would face in banking on him for 100+ starts on the infield dirt.

Assuming Turner plays mostly designated hitter, the Jays have a collection of infielders (Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez) to handle second and third base. Schneider has 35 games of MLB experience. Espinal and Biggio once looked like viable regulars but have tailed off in recent years. Clement is a utility player.

  • Cubs

The Cubs might have the clearest need for third base help of any expected contender. Nick Madrigal, the top in-house option, hit .263/.311/.352 a year ago. There was also some concern about whether his arm plays well on the left side of the infield, although Madrigal posted excellent defensive grades in his first 560 1/3 innings at third base. There’s still a legitimate question as to whether the former #4 overall pick makes enough an offensive impact to start on a win-now team.

Chicago’s other short-term possibilities also have notable drawbacks. Patrick Wisdom has power but strikes out nearly as often as any regular in MLB. He’s a below-average defender who’s probably better served as a bench bat. Christopher Morel has never found a defensive home and only started four games at third base last year. Miles Mastrobuoni is coming off a .241/.308/.301 showing. It’s too early to bank on last year’s first-round draftee, Matt Shaw, making an MLB impact in 2024.

Viable Starter, Could Upgrade

  • Giants: San Francisco doesn’t truly need a third baseman. J.D. Davis hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 homers a year ago. That was Davis’ worst full offensive season but still not far off what Chapman has provided in recent years. At the plate, they’re fairly comparable. Chapman has a marked edge over Davis with the glove, although Statcast felt the Giants’ incumbent third baseman took a step forward in that regard a season ago. While it’s fair to question whether Chapman is a marked enough improvement for San Francisco to make a run, they’ve been linked throughout the offseason. New skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman for years across the Bay Area. The Giants could pursue him with an eye towards flipping Davis for help in another area of the roster.
  • Mariners: Seattle is going into 2024 with a projected platoon at third base. They shipped off Eugenio Suárez and acquired Luis Urías. The righty-swinging Urías can pair with left-handed hitting Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Chapman would be a fairly straightforward upgrade, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has expressed a desire to skew away from hitters with significant swing-and-miss rates (although their actual offseason on that front has been more mixed). More meaningfully, the M’s might just be up against ownership’s spending limit.
  • Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets were happy with their internal options at third base. Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball a few days later, but New York still has 24-year-old Brett Baty on hand. Baty had a dismal ’23 campaign, hitting .212/.275/.323 in 389 plate appearances. If the Mets were all-in on the upcoming season, Chapman would make a lot of sense. The organizational goal is instead to hang on the fringe of contention while giving opportunities to young players to see what they have for 2025. If Chapman’s asking price craters and he’s open to a short-term deal with an opt-out, perhaps the Mets could jump in. Otherwise, it seems the job will go to Baty.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia seems content with Alec Bohm. He’s a subpar defender who has done the vast majority of his offensive damage against left-handed pitching in his career. There’s an argument the Phillies should make a run at Chapman and push Bohm to the bench, but the team doesn’t seem to consider third base a pressing issue. Bohm is a former #3 overall pick who had a decent .274/.327/.437 slash a year ago, so the Phils could hope there’s a little untapped potential at the dish.
  • Yankees: The Yankees are planning to turn third base back to DJ LeMahieu. The 35-year-old was a league average hitter a season ago, running a .243/.327/.390 line with 15 homers. The longtime second baseman receives slightly above-average marks for his glovework at third base. LeMahieu hasn’t maintained the star-level production he showed from 2019-20, yet he’s still a solid everyday player. He had a strong finish to 2023, hitting .273/.377/.432 with a robust 14% walk rate after the All-Star Break. Chapman would likely be an upgrade, but it’s not a massive boost on what LeMahieu has provided. The Yankees have tried to move away from right-handed hitters with strikeout issues after overloading their lineup with that type of player in previous years.

Competitive Timeline Question

  • Nationals
  • Tigers
  • White Sox

The Nationals took a flier on former top prospect Nick Senzel to start at third base. Senzel hasn’t contributed much at the MLB level, so this is still a clear area of weakness. Washington hasn’t fully pivoted from rebuilding to making a competitive push, though, meaning it’s probably a year or two early to pursue a player like Chapman. Chicago might be going in the opposite direction, as they may soon find themselves at the beginning of a rebuild. Yoán Moncada is under guaranteed contract for one more year with a club option for 2025. The Sox will likely give him a rebound opportunity and hope to offload some of the money he’s owed at the trade deadline.

Detroit admittedly didn’t fit particularly well within any of these five categories. They’re at the beginning of what they hope to be their contention window. The Tigers don’t have a clear starting third baseman right now but are hopeful that top prospect Jace Jung could push for the job by next season. Manager A.J. Hinch has suggested they’re comfortable rotating the likes of Andy Ibáñez, Matt Vierling and Zach McKinstry through the position as a stopgap platoon.

Payroll Issues

  • Athletics
  • Brewers
  • Marlins
  • Royals

None of these low-payroll franchises are going to spend the kind of money it’d take to land Chapman. Each of Milwaukee (Joey Ortiz), Miami (Jake Burger) and Kansas City (Maikel García) could turn the position to a controllable player they hope will be part of the long-term core.

Already Set At Third Base

  • Astros
  • Braves
  • Cardinals
  • Diamondbacks
  • Dodgers
  • Guardians
  • Orioles
  • Padres
  • Pirates
  • Rangers
  • Rays
  • Red Sox
  • Reds
  • Rockies
  • Twins

These 15 teams all have either a clearly above-average starting third baseman (e.g. José Ramírez, Austin Riley), have addressed the position already this winter (Eugenio Suárez), or possess enough infield talent that can capably cover the position. In either case, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs considering Chapman a notable upgrade on their in-house options to bring him in. That’s true regardless of whether he pivots to a short-term deal.

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