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2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

A’s Select Vinny Nittoli

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June 4: The A’s made it official today, selecting Nittoli’s contract today. They also reinstated left-hander Sean Newcomb from the 60-day injured list. One spot was opened by righty Michael Kelly being placed on the suspended list today, one of many players receiving punishments for gambling, as reported earlier today. A second active roster spot was opened by left-hander Brady Basso being optioned. To open another 40-man roster spot, right-hander Paul Blackburn was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Additionally, right-hander Aaron Brooks was outrighted to Las Vegas after being designated for assignment on the weekend.

Blackburn will be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was May 11. That means the club doesn’t expect him back in the next month. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment after suffering a stress reaction of the fifth metatarsal of his right foot.

June 3: A’s reliever Vinny Nittoli is joining the team before tomorrow’s series opener with the Mariners, reports Jessica Kleinschmidt (X link). Assuming he’s in line for a call-up, the A’s will need to select his contract to add him to the MLB roster.

Nittoli, 33, landed with Oakland on an offseason minor league deal. The 6’1″ righty struck out 10 hitters in 5 2/3 innings in Spring Training. He has continued to miss plenty of bats for Triple-A Las Vegas. Over 23 1/3 innings in the Pacific Coast League, Nittoli has fanned 36% of opposing hitters. While he has also issued walks at a higher than average rate (11%), the huge strikeout tally has allowed the Xavier product to post a 2.70 ERA in an extremely hitter-friendly setting.

Since making his MLB debut with the Mariners in 2021, Nittoli has logged 6 2/3 innings with three different teams. He has appeared at the big league level in each of the last three seasons, but last year’s three games with the Mets represented a personal high. Nittoli has five years of Triple-A experience, turning in a 4.73 ERA in 177 innings at that level. He has punched out more than 29% of his career Triple-A opponents.

Oakland lost setup man Lucas Erceg to the injured list over the weekend, subtracting one of their higher-octane arms from the relief corps. The A’s have plenty of opportunity available in the middle innings leading up to star closer Mason Miller and high-leverage righty Austin Adams. Their 40-man roster is at capacity and they don’t have any obvious candidates for a move to the 60-day injured list. That could require them to designate a player for assignment if they officially call Nittoli up tomorrow.

Mariners Outright Luis Urías

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The Mariners announced today that they have signed outfielder Víctor Robles to a major league deal, a move that was reported yesterday. To open a spot on their 40-man roster, they announced that infielder Luis Urías was outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, suggesting he has already passed through waivers unclaimed. He has the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his salary in order to do so.

Urías, who just celebrated his 27th birthday yesterday, was once a solid regular in the big leagues but has fallen on hard times lately. He hit 39 homers for the Brewers over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, while also drawing walks at a 10.8% clip. He slashed a combined .244/.340/.426 over that two-year stretch, production which translates to a 111 wRC+.

But last year, he missed a couple of months due to a strained left hamstring. He produced a dismal line of .145/.299/.236 in 20 games for the Brewers when healthy, which got him optioned to the minors and traded to the Red Sox at the deadline. He had a bit of a resurgence in Boston, hitting .225/.361/.337, then was flipped to Seattle in the offseason.

After becoming a Mariner, his struggles continued. He hit just .152/.264/.316 for Seattle and was optioned to the minors just over a week ago, though has now been bumped off the 40-man roster entirely.

Players with more than three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of electing free agency. However, a player needs five years of service in order to do so without forfeiting the remainder of his salary. Urías came into this year with four years and 98 days of service, leaving him 74 days shy of the five-year mark. Since he was optioned in late May, he added just under 60 days to that tally but is still not quite at the five-year mark.

Getting to five years of service also allows a player to refuse an optional assignment, so it’s perhaps not coincidental that Urías was sent down when he was, though his performance clearly justified the decision from the club. He and the M’s had agreed to a $5MM salary for 2024, with about $3.4MM left to be paid out. Urías likely doesn’t want to walk away from that kind of money and will almost certainly accept his fate with Tacoma and look to get back in form. For the Mariners, they are able to keep an experienced player around as depth without using a roster spot.

White Sox Activate Luis Robert, Place Tommy Pham On IL, Designate Zach Remillard

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The White Sox announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating outfielder Luis Robert Jr. from the injured list, recalling outfielder Zach DeLoach and selecting the contract of outfielder Duke Ellis. In corresponding moves, outfielders Tommy Pham and Dominic Fletcher have each landed on the 10-day injured list, Pham due to a left ankle sprain and Fletcher due to a left shoulder strain. Both moves are retroactive to June 3. The Sox also designated infielder Zach Remillard for assignment. James Fegan of Sox Machine reported the Ellis news on X earlier today.

Robert returns to the roster after missing nearly two months with a Grade 2 strain of his right hip flexor. He hit .214/.241/.500 in 29 plate appearances before sustaining the injury while legging out a ninth-inning double. It’s a suboptimal way to kick off his follow-up to last year’s sensational year, which saw the five-tool standout bat .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals and plus center field defense in a career-high 145 games.

The return of Robert will add some direly needed talent to a White Sox club that has overwhelmingly been the worst in MLB this year. Chicago’s .250 winning percentage is miles behind the 29th-ranked Marlins’ mark of .350. The ChiSox are slam-dunk sellers at this year’s trade deadline, and if healthy, Robert will command plenty of attention himself. However, he’s signed at a bargain rate through the 2027 season, and trading a player with MVP-caliber talent and three-plus seasons of club control left is almost unheard of. Other clubs will surely make an effort, but it would likely take one of the largest trade returns in recent MLB history for the Sox to make the move.

Pham, 36, is a far more logical trade candidate. If healthy, he’s perhaps the single most obvious and likely player in all of MLB to be moved leading up to the deadline. The 11-year veteran is playing on a $3MM base salary on his one-year deal and is out to a strong .280/.331/.402 start to his season (110 wRC+). He posted a similar .256/.328/.446 line in 481 plate appearances between the Mets and D-backs a season ago. Pham may not have the speed or power he possessed in his late 20s and early 30s, but he remains a talented hitter who can capably handle the outfield corners (even if he’s been miscast as a center fielder in Chicago with Robert on the injured list).

Fletcher, acquired in an offseason trade that sent pitching prospect Cristian Mena to the D-backs, has managed only a .173/.253/.227 output in 84 plate appearances. That pales in comparison to last year’s .301/.350/.441 showing in his MLB debut effort with Arizona. The Sox briefly optioned him to Charlotte but recalled him recently after he hit .238/.319/.405 in 11 games. For a 26-year-old whom the Sox hoped could be a controllable piece for them, Fletcher has received curiously sparse playing time since his recall. Manager Pedro Grifol has given Fletcher just 18 plate appearances over the past three weeks, during which he’s collected only one hit.

Ellis, 26, is hitting .258/.341/.308 (102 wRC+) in 39 Double-A games this season but has already racked up an enormous 34 stolen bases. Opponents have managed to catch him only one time thus far. Throughout his minor league career, he’s turned in worrying strikeout rates and displayed minimal power (career-high eight homers), but he’s also swiped 117 bases with an 88.9% success rate. Though he’s not considered one of the White Sox’ top prospects, Ellis clearly possesses high-end speed.

The Padres selected Ellis out of high school with their 20th-round pick in 2017, but he instead opted to attend Panola College in Carthage, Texas. He’d have been eligible for the 2020 draft, but that year’s event was shortened to five rounds during the pandemic-impacted season. He wound up signing with the White Sox as an undrafted free agent and has steadily climbed their ranks.

This will be the second DFA of the season for Remillard, who made his MLB debut as a 29-year-old rookie last season. He’s hit .250/.304/.322 in 199 big league plate appearances since that time but has struggled to a lifeless .114/.192/.157 slash in 19 Triple-A games this year. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Charlotte following his last DFA and is a candidate to do so a second time.

Nationals Place Trevor Williams On Injured List, Recall DJ Herz For MLB Debut

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2:20pm: Williams spoke to the Nationals beat and said while there’s no firm timetable for his return, he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for at least the next two weeks (X link via MASNsport.com’s Mark Zuckerman). That effectively rules out any hope of a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list for the righty.

11:10am: The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Trevor Williams on the 15-day injured list due to a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm. Left-hander DJ Herz has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester and will make his MLB debut when he starts tonight’s game.

Williams is in the midst of a career year at age 32, having pitched 56 1/3 innings of 2.22 ERA ball out of the Washington rotation. He’s achieved those results in spite of a below-average 21% strikeout rate and benefited from both a .270 average on balls in play and minuscule 3.3% homer-to-flyball rate — all of which signal the potential for regression. Nonetheless, Williams’ performance thus far has been a major driving factor behind the Nationals exceeding preseason expectations and hanging around an NL Wild Card race that is largely populated by sub-.500 clubs at the moment.

The Nats didn’t provide a timetable for Williams’ return. That he’s dealing with a muscle strain as opposed to a damaged flexor tendon is perhaps a silver lining, but that doesn’t preclude a notable absence in and of itself. Teammate Josiah Gray is dealing with the same injury and has been on the shelf for nearly two months at this point. All injuries cases are different, and we don’t know how the placement and severity of Williams’ strain compares to that of Gray, but Gray’s injury is evidence that Williams is hardly assured a swift return to the mound.

The timing of the injury is particularly poor for both the team and Williams himself. If Washington were to hang around and make a Wild Card push, one would presume a healthy Williams would play a notable role. Even if he saw his pristine ERA regress toward the vicinity of his 3.97 SIERA, he’d still be a useful veteran presence on the staff. And if the Nats were to fall well out of the postseason picture, it’s easy to envision Williams becoming a sought-after trade chip. His injury throws a wrench into both scenarios.

On a personal level, it’s also poorly timed for the pitcher himself. Wiilliams is playing out the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and is slated to reach free agency at season’s end. He landed that $13MM guarantee in the 2022-23 offseason on the heels of a year spent primarily in a swingman role with the Mets. Had Williams reached the market a second time on the heels of a two-year run as a starter — the second season being a career-best performance — he’d have been in line for a more substantial payday, even heading into his age-33 season. It’s still possible he could return in a relatively timely manner, pitch well and reach that endgame, but the injury muddies his chances of doing so.

Turning to the 23-year-old Herz, he’ll get his first big league start less than a year after being acquired in the trade that sent Jeimer Candelario from the Nats to the Cubs. The 2019 eighth-rounder has had mixed results in the minors this year. On the one hand, his 3.75 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate in Rochester are both strong marks. On the other, Herz has averaged just four innings per start and walked an astounding 19% of his opponents. Command has always been a weakness for the 6’2″ lefty; he’s never walked fewer than 13% of his opponents in a full season.

The Nats have already had one lefty make his MLB debut and greatly exceed expectations this season. They’ll hope that Herz can follow in the footsteps of teammate Mitchell Parker in that regard. Given the state of the rebuilding Nationals and the lack of other upper-minors pitching depth, Herz could have a fairly long runway to prove himself in the event that Williams and/or Gray remain sidelined for a significant period. Top prospect Cade Cavalli stands as one potential alternative, but he’s being monitored carefully in his return from 2023 Tommy John surgery. Prospect Jackson Rutledge and last season’s Rule 5 pick, Thaddeus Ward, are both on the 40-man roster in Rochester but both have ERAs north of 6.00 in Triple-A this season.

Pirates Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Pirates announced a series of roster moves today. They recalled catcher Henry Davis, outfielder Jack Suwinski and infielder Liover Peguero from Triple-A Indianapolis. They also selected the contract of right-handed reliever Ben Heller from Indy. In one corresponding move, they placed infielder/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae on the 10-day injured list with a right wrist sprain, retroactive to June 3. Outfielder Michael A. Taylor went on the paternity list, opening another roster spot, while left-hander Jose Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A and catcher Grant Koch was designated for assignment.

Additionally, the club reinstated catcher Jason Delay from the 60-day IL and optioned him to Triple-A. To open a 40-man spot for him, left-hander Marco Gonzales was transferred to the 60-day IL.

The news on Davis was reported on the weekend. Manager Derek Shelton was on 93.7 The Fan earlier today, as relayed by Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and revealed the news about Suwinski, Peguero, Bae and Taylor.

Davis, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2021 draft, returns to the majors after spending a bit more than a month in Triple-A. He’d gotten out to not only a rough start in 2024 (.162/.280/.206 in 83 plate appearances) but to his overall big league career. The former Louisville star also struggled through 255 plate appearances last season in his debut campaign and carries a disappointing .201/.297/.319 slash to this point in the majors.

Of course, that’s a small sample of just 338 plate appearances — far too limited a data set to make any broad-reaching conclusions about Davis’ long-term outlook. He looked reinvigorated during his short time in Indianapolis, utterly laying waste to International League pitching. In 101 turns at the dish, Davis recorded an outrageous .296/.436/.642 batting line with seven home runs and seven doubles.

Davis has long been viewed as a bat-first catching prospect, which admittedly makes his early struggles at the plate concerning but also creates some optimism that he’ll eventually turn a corner in the batter’s box. The Pirates’ hope is that this brief Indy reset will be a catalyst for just such a turnaround. And with Joey Bart now joining fellow catcher Endy Rodriguez on the injured list, Davis should have a clear opportunity to prove he can carry some of those gains over to the MLB level.

Suwinski will return after just a week in the minors. He was optioned last week after struggling to a brutal .174/.268/.297 slash to begin what he hoped would be a strong follow-up to last year’s 26-homer breakout. His rate stats were better in Indianapolis, as he hit .250/.276/.429 with a homer and a triple in his seven-game sample, but Suwinski also fanned in 13 of his 29 plate appearances (44.8%). That’s not the type of progress for which he and the team were hoping, but Bae’s injury created an outfield need and forced the team’s hand.

Heller, 32, has pitched in parts of five major league seasons and has a 3.06 ERA in 50 big league innings, albeit with a below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a hefty 11.8% walk rate. Metrics like FIP and SIERA both peg him north of 5.00. He’s benefited from some decent fortune on balls in play (.261 BABIP) and a sky-high 89% strand rate that’s about 17 percentage points higher than average.

That said, Heller has also posted genuinely intriguing numbers in Indianapolis this year — none more so than his enormous 43% strikeout rate. Through 18 1/3 frames, he’s yielded a 4.91 ERA, but most of the damage against him came in one stretch of four straight appearances in which he allowed runs. He’s since rattled off 5 2/3 shutout frames, fanning 10 opponents along the way against four walks. Command is still an issue for Heller, but his 10.1% walk rate in Triple-A is a bit better than his big league standards.

Koch was only just called to the majors for his big league debut when Bart landed on the injured list. The 27-year-old former fifth-rounder appeared in three games but did not collect a hit in eight trips to the plate. He’s a .236/.295/.362 hitter in parts of two Triple-A seasons. The Pirates will have a week to trade Koch, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Delay played a prominent role with the Pirates over the past couple seasons and hit .251/.319/.347 in 187 plate appearances last year. That’s respectable production for a backup catcher, but Delay is generally considered just that — a backup option behind the dish — whereas Davis is the potential future if not at catcher then perhaps at first base or in right field. The Pirates understandably want to give Davis as many opportunities as possible, and he’ll now slide back into the primary catcher role with veteran Yasmani Grandal backing him up.

As for Gonzales, his move to the 60-day IL was largely procedural. The team needed a 40-man spot to reinstate Delay, and Gonzales has been on the 15-day IL since April 14. He’ll be eligible to return later this month, but he’s yet to begin throwing. He’s out with a strained left forearm muscle and may not be back until the season’s second half at this rate.

Reds Select Blake Dunn

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The Reds announced that they have selected the contract of outfielder Blake Dunn from Triple-A Louisville, with infielder/outfielder Nick Martini optioned in a corresponding move. They already had an open 40-man spot after first baseman Mike Ford was designated for assignment last week.

Dunn, 25, was a 15th-round selection of the Reds in 2021 and collected a bonus of $125K. As one would expect with that modest draft selection and bonus, Dunn wasn’t considered one of the club’s top prospects, but he has improved his stock with some strong play lately.

Last year, he got into 124 minor league contests, split between High-A and Double-A. He drew a walk in 11.1% of his 559 plate appearances and also hit 23 home runs. He finished the year with a combined batting line of .312/.425/.522 and a 158 wRC+ while also stealing 54 bases and playing all three outfield positions.

Coming into 2024, Baseball America ranked him the #14 prospect in the organization while FanGraphs had him at #15, though he hasn’t carried over his tremendous offensive showing from 2023. The Reds bumped him to Triple-A and his walk rate is up to 13.3% but his strikeouts are also up to a 30.6% rate, a big jump from last year’s 23.3% clip. He’s slashing .223/.348/.378 on the year overall, production which translates to a 94 wRC+.

Even with the bat seeming to take a bit of a step back, Dunn could still be useful with his speed and defense. He’s swiped another nine bags already this year without being caught. The Reds have a regular outfield rotation consisting of left-handed hitters TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Jacob Hurtubise and Will Benson, as well as the right-handed hitting Stuart Fairchild.

Since Dunn is also a righty, perhaps he will take some playing time in the short side of a platoon and shield some of those lefty swingers from tough southpaws, while also doing some pinch running and taking some late-game defensive replacement duties. He’s hitting .250/.298/.558 against lefties so far this year, compared to just .208/.372/.281 without the platoon advantage. Dunn will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Major League Baseball Closes Investigation Involving Shohei Ohtani, Ippei Mizuhara

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1:20pm: Ohtani released a statement through a spokesperson, with Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic among those to relay it on X:

“Now that the investigation has been completed, this full admission of guilt has brought important closure to me and my family. I want to sincerely thank the authorities for finishing their thorough and effective investigation so quickly and uncovering all of the evidence. This has been a uniquely challenging time, so I am especially grateful for my support team – my family, agent, agency, lawyers, and advisors along with the entire Dodger organization, who showed endless support throughout this process. It’s time to close this chapter, move on and continue to focus on playing and winning ballgames.”

1:00pm: Major League Baseball released a statement to members of the media today regarding Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, with Alden González of MLB among those to relay it on X: “Based on the thoroughness of the federal investigation that was made public, the information MLB collected, and the criminal proceeding being resolved without being contested, MLB considers Shohei Ohtani a victim of fraud and this matter has been closed.”

Ippei Mizuhara, Ohtani’s former interpreter, officially pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud charges in federal court this morning, as also relayed by González on X. Mizuhara’s sentencing is set for October 25 at 2:00pm Pacific.

The Dodgers also released a statement on the matter on X: “With today’s plea in the criminal proceedings against Ippei Mizuhara and the conclusion of both federal and MLB investigations, the Dodgers are pleased that Shohei and the team can put this entire matter behind them and move forward in pursuit of a World Series title.”

MLB announced in March that its Department of Investigations would be looking into the matter. That followed the emergence of various news reports that connected Mizuhara and Ohtani to an illegal gambling ring in California, where sports betting is not legal.

Mizuhara initially told members of the press that he had run up sizeable gambling debts and that Ohtani had agreed to help him by wiring money to the bookmaker. Attorneys representing Ohtani later said that the player had been “the victim of a massive theft.” Ohtani spoke about the situation, accusing Mizuhara of stealing his money and lying about it.

In April, Mizuhara was officially charged by federal officials, with the full 37-page complaint against him being released at that time. Further details emerged last month when it was reported that Mizuhara would be pleading guilty and agreeing to a plea deal. Mizuhara is alleged to have transferred more than $16MM from an account of Ohtani’s to the bookmaker, with the complaint containing phone records, text messages and banking records. Mizuhara allegedly phoned the bank and impersonated Ohtani “at least 24 times” as part of his attempts to access the account in question. Ohtani believed his agents and/or accounts were monitoring the account, whereas their repeated attempts to get access it were thwarted by Mizuhara, who told them that Ohtani wanted it kept private. The complaint also contained a text message wherein Mizuhara admitted to a bookmaker that he stole from Ohtani: “Technically I did steal from him. it’s all over for me.” Investigators found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Ohtani, nor did they find any evidence of Mizuhara betting on baseball.

Mizuhara is facing a maximum sentence of 33 years but could wind up with less than that as part of his plea deal. Meghann Cuniff of The Washington Post looked at the sentencing guidelines on X last month, (link one and two) suggesting that Mizuhara’s range would likely be in the range of 78 to 108 months, though also adding on X that the final decision will ultimately lie with the judge. Multiple reports have suggested Mizuhara is likely to be deported to Japan.

Braves Sign Brian Anderson To Major League Deal

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The Braves have signed veteran third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson to a major league contract, reports Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Anderson, a CAA client, will be in uniform for tonight’s game. He opted out of a minor league deal with the Mariners over the weekend. Atlanta transferred lefty Tyler Matzek from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the roster for Anderson.

Anderson, 31, should be a familiar face for Braves fans and those within the organization. The former third-round pick spent the 2017-22 seasons with the Marlins, taking regular at-bats between stints as the team’s everyday third baseman and everyday right fielder. From 2018-20, Anderson was one of Miami’s most reliable hitters, batting .266/.350/.436 with 42 home runs, a hefty 74 doubles and six triples in 1419 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, he was 15% better than a league-average hitter in that span.

Shoulder injuries and a severe oblique strain both weighed down Anderson’s production in 2021-22, however, and the always cost-conscious Marlins non-tendered him following the ’22 campaign, making him a free agent a year early. He signed with the Brewers in hopes of rebounding but didn’t manage to do so, slashing .226/.310/.368 (85 wRC+) in 361 plate appearances. So far with the Mariners’ Triple-A club in Tacoma, Anderson had tallied 176 plate appearances and recorded a .270/.358/.439 batting line with six round-trippers and seven doubles.

While Anderson obviously can’t replace Ronald Acuña Jr., whose 2024 season ended last week when he suffered a torn ACL, the seven-year MLB veteran can still give the Braves an experienced right-handed bat to pair with lefty-swinging Jarred Kelenic in left field. Kelenic, Michael Harris II and Adam Duvall figure to take the bulk of the outfield at-bats, with Marcell Ozuna seeing regular time at DH and left-hitting J.P. Martinez receiving sporadic outfield at-bats as well.

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