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John Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Offseason Plans

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Getting a clear picture of the Cardinals’ plans for 2025 has been a bit of a moving target. Multiple reports over the past months indicated the club was looking at a sort of reset year, lowering the payroll as they pivot towards a focus on player development. As such, it seemed fair to expect that a number of veteran players on the roster would be available in trade. In recent weeks, that expectation has been softened, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak discussed with Katie Woo of The Athletic this week.

“We have every intention of fielding a good baseball team,” Mozeliak said. “It’s going to have a different profile, but we still have a lot of belief that some of our younger players will take that next step forward. We’re excited about what we have. Now, it is Dec. 5, and things can happen and things can change. But we’re still going into (next season) with optimism that it’ll be a fun baseball team to watch.”

It seems the plan is to walk a bit of a fine line. The Cards are definitely planning to take their foot of the gas pedal a bit, though maybe not to the degree that was initially expected. All signs point to the club spending a bit less on the 2025 roster, but they might just do that by being less aggressive. RosterResource already projects the club about $35MM below last year’s payroll, so the Cards could just avoid signings as opposed to actively looking to move players with notable contracts.

As of a few weeks ago, it seemed fair to expect players like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley and others would be available. Helsley is an excellent reliever but is one year away from free agency, making it logical for them to explore trades. The other three are in their mid-30s and making eight-figure salaries. They all have no-trade protection but it was assumed by some that they would prefer to be traded to a competitor, rather than sticking out a rebuilding process.

But it was reported last month that Contreras actually wanted to stay in St. Louis and didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause. Since one of the goals of the 2025 season is for the club to evaluate players including catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, Contreras will be moved to first base to replace free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Though the reporting was a bit less explicit with Gray, it seems he also had a desire to stay with the Cards next year.

Recent reporting has also suggested that they will hold onto Helsley. They could eventually trade him at the deadline but there is some risk there. Helsley could get hurt or put up less impressive numbers in the first half of 2025. Holding onto him now also prevents the acquiring team from making a qualifying offer after 2025, potentially reducing his trade value.

All in all, it seems the plan is to do something in between rebuilding and full-throated contending. The Cards are going to give playing time to some less proven players and hope for some internal developments. Woo lists Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Pagés and Herrera as players who should get long auditions in 2025. That’s notable for Gorman as he seemed to fall out of favor this past year, getting optioned to the minors with Mozeliak seemingly delivering a harsh assessment of his situation at that time.

“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” Mozeliak said in August. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”

It seems much has changed since that comment, as Mozeliak now tells Woo that they’re hoping for Gorman to get 600 at-bats next year. He seemed to break out in 2023 with 27 home runs and a strong 11.4% walk rate, working around a high strikeout rate of 31.9%. But his walk rate fell to 8.5% in 2024 as his strikeout rate climbed even higher to 37.6%, leading to his aforementioned optioning to the minors.

The Cards have a few of these talented but unproven players and it seems the plan is to give them a chance to step forward. Walker also had a strong 2023 but fell off in 2024. Burleson had a nice breakout in 2024 that he’ll try to maintain. Nootbaar has been limited by injuries and still hasn’t played 120 games in a season. Pagés and Herrera have been stuck in backup duty behind Contreras.

The overarching plan then is to proverbially throw these players into the deep end and see how well they swim. The Cards believe that, with some success from that group and others, they could potentially compete in 2025. That mentality is leading them to hold onto players like Helsley for now and see how things go. Depending on how the players and the team perform in the first half of 2025 could then determine next steps.

The big remaining unknown seems to be Arenado, who seems to be more open to waiving his no-trade clause than Contreras or Gray, but he hasn’t demanded a trade and the Cardinals don’t seem hellbent on moving him. Whether he returns to St. Louis in 2025 could perhaps depend on what kind of offers are put on the table for him. On top of that, players like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas are impending free agents. The club may be open to trading them depending on the offers, but like Helsley, they could also be retained as the club tries to see if contending in 2025 is possible.

Clay Holmes Believed To Be Nearing Decision

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Free agent right-hander Clay Holmes appears close to making a decision on his next team, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Teams that have been in talks with the former Yankees closer have gotten the impression that he’s on the verge of choosing among several offers, per Stark, who adds that Holmes has been negotiating with “a long list of contending clubs.”

Holmes, 32 in April, spent the past three and a half seasons in the Bronx, combining for 217 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball. He fanned 26.6% of his opponents and limited walks at a sharp 7.7% clip along the way. Holmes established himself as one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers in that time as well, leaning on a sizzling sinker that averages 96.5 mph to induce grounders at a nearly 68% clip.

While Holmes broke out as a reliever in the Bronx, however, there are reportedly several teams that have interest in bringing him aboard as a starting pitcher. Which role he prefers is surely something Holmes has weighed extensively in free agency — particularly if most of the clubs he’s spoken to are expected contenders. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last month that the Mets are among the teams interested in seeing Holmes in the rotation. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported just a couple days ago that the Phillies are interested in Holmes in a relief role. While free agency typically boils down to the “money talks” adage, if Holmes had similar offers from a pair of contending clubs who want to use him in different roles, that’d add another layer to the decision process.

In 2024, Holmes tossed 63 innings of 3.14 ERA ball with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 65% ground-ball rate. He piled up 30 saves, bringing his career total to 74, but also ceded ninth-inning work to teammate Luke Weaver late in the season due to an alarming — and highly out of character — 13 blown saves on the year. He pitched quite well in 13 postseason appearances, logging a 2.25 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 53.6% grounder rate in a dozen innings. Holmes was frequently thrust into leverage spots, evidenced by a 3-1 record and five holds over the course of those 13 playoff outings.

Brett Baty Drawing Trade Interest

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Mets third baseman Brett Baty is drawing trade interest around the league, and the front office is at least listening to offers on the former top prospect, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Baty isn’t being actively shopped but isn’t off limits either, making him an option for clubs seeking affordable (salary-wise) help at the hot corner.

Baty has long looked like a logical trade candidate. He made our list of the top offseason trade candidates heading into the winter, due largely to the emergence of Mark Vientos at third base and the possibility of the Mets re-signing Pete Alonso. In a scenario where Alonso signs elsewhere and Vientos moves across the diamond to first base, there’d still be a path for Baty to claim the everyday gig at the hot corner, but he’s stumbled multiple times when afforded that opportunity in recent seasons. Mets fans will want to check out Puma’s piece for in-depth quotes from scouts around the league, a couple of whom feel Baty is a small adjustment or two away from cementing himself as a big league regular.

Of course, scouting opinions like that only underscore that other teams would love to get their hands on the still-25-year-old Baty. The former No. 12 overall pick (2019) and longtime top prospect has mustered only a .215/.282/.325 line in his first 602 MLB plate appearances, although those have been spread across three seasons. Baty is a .273/.368/.531 hitter in 416 Triple-A plate appearances and has shown improving strike zone awareness even in the majors. He walked at a 9.4% clip last year and cut his strikeout rate from 28% in 2023 down to 24.6% in 2024. Baty fanned in 21.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances and walked at a 12.4% clip in 2024.

Baty still has a minor league option remaining, and he’s under club control for at least another five seasons. That lessens any urgency to deal him, but with the Mets looking to add multiple starting pitchers — even after signing Frankie Montas — there’s a pretty obvious path to using Baty as a trade chip as well.

The Mets’ focus is clearly on Juan Soto at the moment, but the manner in which that market plays out could also impact Baty’s future in Queens. If the Mets don’t reel in Soto, they could become more aggressive on Alonso, Willy Adames or Alex Bregman, any of which would further impede Baty’s path to the Citi Field. Baty has seen some time at second base and in left field, but his natural and likely best position is at third base.

The Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Tigers, Royals and Brewers are among the teams who could look for third base help on the trade market in the weeks to come. (The Yankees could, too, though it’d be more surprising to see a trade of a notable prospect between the two New York teams.) The Mariners’ young starting pitching is the envy of most major league clubs, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto now somewhat famously called trading one of his starters “Plan Z” on the offseason to-do list in late September.

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat for Front Office subscribers this afternoon.

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Angels Re-Sign Bryce Teodosio To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have re-signed outfielder Bryce Teodosio to a minor league deal, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Salt Lake for now but will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training.

Teodosio, 26 in June, got a brief stint on the club’s roster as the 2024 campaign was winding down. He was selected a week into September and got into five big league games for the club, striking out five times and getting one single in his 12 plate appearances. He then suffered a right middle finger fracture and landed on the injured list for the final weeks of the season. The Halos non-tendered him last month, sending him to free agency without being exposed to waivers, allowing them to quickly bring him back via this deal.

An undrafted free agent in 2021, Teodosio was signed by the Halos at that time and climbed their minor league ladder. He hasn’t done much to impress with his bat, slashing .229/.312/.358 in the minors over the past three years for a wRC+ of 76. However, he has shown an ability to steal bases, swiping 28 in 2022, 16 last year and 40 this year. He has also lined up at all three outfield spots. During his brief stint in the majors, Statcast put his sprint speed in the 98th percentile.

The Angels currently have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward as their two most established outfielders, both of whom are fairly injury prone. Trout has played more than 82 games in a season just once since 2019 and hasn’t topped 140 games since 2016. Ward just played 156 games in 2024 but that was his first time getting beyond 135 and just his second time in triple digits. Beyond that, players like Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak have spotty track records in terms of performance.

If the Halos need to call upon their outfield depth this year, Teodosio can perhaps carve out a bench role. The lack of offense doesn’t make him a great fit for regular playing time but his wheels could allow him to contribute as a pinch runner or defensive replacement.

Cubs Reportedly “Determined” To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen as well as relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

A’s Also Made Offer To Sean Manaea

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The Athletics’ three-year, $67MM contract with Luis Severino stunned many baseball fans. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the West Sacramento-bound club hadn’t spent more than $15MM on a free agent since signing Ryan Madson to a three-year, $22MM deal nearly a decade ago. The $67MM guarantee stands as the largest in franchise history, surpassing Eric Chavez’s 20-year record by $1MM. The A’s had signaled that they might be willing to spend in free agency or via trade — MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored the possibilities at length last month — and there were multiple reports that the A’s were aiming for a $100MM payroll. Many still took an “I’ll believe it when I see it approach.”

We’ve now seen it — or at least the early stages of it. It might still feel unusual to say the A’s agreed to sign a player for $22MM+ annual value, but that’s the reality. There are also some indications that the on-the-move A’s could continue to spend. For instance, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the A’s also made a “big” offer to free agent southpaw Sean Manaea, who made his MLB debut with the Athletics after coming over from the Royals in the 2015 Ben Zobrist trade.

That offer came prior to their deal with Severino, Heyman notes. It’s not expressly clear that the A’s would be willing to put forth another competitive offer for an upper-tier free agent like Manaea, but the Severino deal and talk of a $100MM payroll target suggests it’s certainly possible. Even with Severino in the fold, RosterResource projects a modest $58MM payroll. There’s room for another weighty salary to be added to the mix, be it in the form of a free agent, a trade acquisition, or both.

One notable aspect of the reported offer to Manaea: the left-hander, like Severino, rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets at the beginning of the offseason. The A’s seem willing to spend at the expense of next year’s draft pool. Severino cost them their third-highest pick — the standard price paid by a revenue-sharing recipient — and now that they’ve forfeited that selection, the cost to sign an additional qualified free agent is reduced. The A’s surrendered their second-round pick to sign Severino — they pick in the first round and in Competitive Balance Round A, between the first and second rounds — and they’d now “only” need to punt their third rounder to bring in Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Christian Walker or another free agent who turned down the qualifying offer.

The A’s could use more stability in the rotation and have at least one corner outfield opening. They have young options at first base (Tyler Soderstrom), second base (Zack Gelof) and shortstop (Jacob Wilson) — all of them picked in the top two rounds of the draft and all of whom are/were highly touted prospects. There’s more of an opening at third base, where Darell Hernaiz and Max Schuemann likely lead the pack, although Gelof could potentially slide over to third base as well if the A’s want to pursue a second baseman. The bullpen, of course, could use some setup arms behind standout closer Mason Miller. There’s no shortage of areas at which to spend, and it seems the A’s are indeed intent on bolstering payroll ahead of the move to their temporary home at Sutter Home Park.

How Could The Astros Create Payroll Space?

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For months, the Astros have expressed hope they’ll re-sign Alex Bregman. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this afternoon that they’ve made a six-year, $156MM offer — supporting recent reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale about the club’s comfort zone. Nightengale and McTaggart each suggest that Bregman’s camp was hoping to land closer to $200MM at least.

With a significant gap between the sides, it’s worth examining the organization’s payroll. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number at nearly $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of next season’s $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them well into CBT territory. Even if they balk at his asking price, they’d need to be willing to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades unless they ship out salary.

The luxury tax isn’t a firm limit. Owner Jim Crane allowed the front office to push into tax territory this year. He has suggested he’s willing to do so again if the organization feels they’re targeting the correct players. Offering Bregman a $26MM average annual value reinforces that, even if it wasn’t a proposal the two-time All-Star was likely to accept.

The Astros seemed to be up against their limit late last winter. Once they lost Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery, ownership signed off on a surprising $95MM contract for Josh Hader. Maybe they’ll eventually do the same to retain Bregman. That’d be easier to envision if they managed to offload salary in a trade, especially since they’d face escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive years. How could they go about cutting spending?

The Astros have $142MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. They’d have a tough time moving most of those deals. They’re not trading Jose Altuve ($30MM) or Yordan Alvarez ($15MM). There’s little incentive to sell low on Cristian Javier ($10MM) midway through Tommy John rehab. Trading Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isn’t happening. Lance McCullers Jr.’s injury history means they wouldn’t find a taker for his $17MM salary without paying the contract down almost the entire way.

Houston can’t trade any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to José Abreu after releasing him. They could technically trade Rafael Montero, who remains in the organization after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. No one’s letting them off the hook for any part of his $11.5MM salary, though. That’s $122MM in commitments to players who have almost no chance of being moved.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, the only realistic trade options are Victor Caratini and Ryan Pressly. Caratini is making an affordable $6MM as a quality complement to Yainer Diaz behind the plate. The Astros could find a taker, but they’d probably need to subsequently commit $3-4MM to sign a backup catcher. Moving Caratini wouldn’t make much of a difference in the Bregman bidding.

As we noted when we named Pressly the offseason’s #14 trade candidate, offloading the reliever’s $14MM salary is the most straightforward option. It’s one the front office has considered. A Pressly trade is a strong possibility, but it’s not inevitable. It’d deal a hit to their bullpen, for one. Pressly also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player. If he doesn’t want to move, he’s staying.

That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of the biggest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects them for a combined salary nearing $54MM. They’re mostly key players. Houston’s arb class breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers).

Most of those players are making between $2-5MM. Trading someone like Dubón or Meyers is plausible, but as with a potential Caratini move, it’s not especially consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston wanted to clear significant money from their arbitration class, the clearest way would be to move one of Tucker or Valdez.

This week, Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker trade. To be clear, that was framed as speculation, not defined reporting that the Astros are actually considering it. Tucker and Valdez are each one year from free agency. Rome points out that they’re trending towards contracts that Crane has traditionally been reluctant to approve — especially Tucker. He argues that the Astros could use one of Tucker or Valdez to add talent to a thin farm system while remaining a contender for another AL West crown. That’s especially true if the Astros use the extra payroll room to finish a deal with Bregman.

Of the two, Valdez would probably be slightly easier to replace. After a terrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could be ready for Opening Day after losing the ’24 season to Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, he was a quality mid-rotation starter. The same is true of McCullers, although his injury history over the past three seasons makes him difficult to rely upon. Spencer Arrighetti showed the ability to miss bats and quietly posted an excellent finish in 2024; over his final 13 starts, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. J.P. France could be back later in the year after losing this season to a shoulder procedure. He’s a capable back-end arm if healthy.

Trading Valdez would subtract the Astros’ most reliable source of innings, to be sure. Yet a starting five of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and some combination of McCullers and France has decent upside. The Astros would probably need to add rotation help at the deadline for a second straight year, but it wouldn’t be a disastrous group to open the season. They’d need to be more aggressive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they have been in prior offseasons. They could also target at least one near-MLB pitching prospect if they were to seriously consider a Valdez trade.

Moving Tucker is a much harder sell. Even if the Astros don’t think there’s much chance they’ll re-sign him, they’d take a huge downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could be a top 5-10 hitter in MLB next season. His foot injury was a source of frustration this year, but there’s no way to replace the kind of production (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) they’d be losing. The outfield is already a relative weak point after McCormick underperformed this year.

None of this is to say a Tucker or Valdez trade is likely. Indeed, there’s no indication the Astros have given either scenario serious thought. If they find it more difficult than expected to line up a Pressly trade, there’s at least an argument for them thinking bigger to create some spending capacity.

The Opener: Soto, Chapman, Athletics

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With the Winter Meetings nearly upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Soto saga entering the final stretch?

The headlines this offseason have been dominated by Juan Soto, and the 26-year-old superstar nears a decision on his next team. Jeff Passan noted earlier this week on ESPN (h/t to Awful Announcing on X) that Soto is expected to make his decision before the Winter Meetings begin in Dallas on Monday. That would seemingly leave Soto’s suitors to make their final pushes for his services this weekend, and reporting yesterday indicated that at least one team (the Red Sox) is hoping to meet with Soto one more time before he makes his decision. Boston is joined by the Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and incumbent Yankees in their pursuit of Soto’s services, and the Red Sox appear to have made a significant effort to land the superstar despite the general assumption around the industry that Soto will remain in New York as either a Met or a Yankee. Whoever lands Soto will pay a steep price tag, as the bidding for his services has already surpassed $600MM.

2. Chapman to undergo physical:

The Red Sox and lefty Aroldis Chapman reached a one-year deal worth $10.75MM earlier this week, and that deal could be finalized as soon as today according to a report from Francys Romero, who notes that Chapman is expected to undergo his physical in Boston today. The Red Sox currently have 39 players on their 40-man roster, meaning they won’t necessarily need to make a corresponding move to add Chapman to their roster. With that being said, however, the Rule 5 Draft is just days away and teams without 40-man roster space on the day of the draft next week cannot make a selection. The Red Sox haven’t made a Rule 5 pick themselves since they selected Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the 2020 draft, but they acquired right-hander Justin Slaten through last winter’s draft by way of the Mets drafting him and then immediately dealing him to Boston. If they want to make a selection this year and finalize their Chapman deal, they’ll need to open a 40-man spot.

3. Athletics open the wallet:

Ahead of their first season in West Sacramento, where they’re set to play for three seasons between departing Oakland and arriving in Las Vegas for Opening Day 2028, the nomadic A’s shocked plenty of onlookers when they landed right-hander Luis Severino on a three-year, $67MM deal that includes an opt-out after the second year. The deal landed above expectations for Severino, whom MLBTR predicted would sign a three-year, $51MM deal in our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

A’s brass indicated earlier this winter that they may be forced to focus on the trade market rather than free agency when upgrading the club due to hesitance from players about committing to a Triple-A ballpark as their next home, but the Severino signing demonstrated another avenue for adding talent: making an offer too tantalizing for a middle-tier free agent to refuse. Will the club try to go over the top for more free agents this winter, or will they pivot to the trade market from here on out?

Cardinals Appear Unlikely To Trade Ryan Helsley

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With the Cardinals viewing next season as an opportunity to transition to a younger core, various St. Louis players jumped out as logical trade candidates. Ryan Helsley was chief among them, as the hard-throwing righty is one year from free agency. Helsley is one of the best relievers in baseball and would surely get a lot of attention on the trade market.

Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that teams in contact with the Cardinals expect St. Louis to hold their closer into next season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak supported that notion. “(A trade is) something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told Rosenthal. That aligns with reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who wrote last month that the Cards were inclined to keep Helsley unless blown away by the offers.

That stops a little short of taking him off the market entirely. It’s not quite as definitive a declaration as, say, A’s GM David Forst flatly stating they were going to keep designated hitter Brent Rooker last month. Still, it’s notable that the team’s front office leader went on record to downplay the possibility of a trade.

Helsley has had a dominant three-year run at the back of the bullpen. He broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

That level of production behind a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would’ve made Helsley arguably the best reliever on the trade market. (One can debate whether he’s better than Milwaukee closer Devin Williams, who could be dealt before his final season of team control.) MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Helsley for a $6.9MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. That’s well below market price for a lockdown closer.

Carrying Helsley into next season would be a frankly puzzling decision. The Cardinals surely feel they’d get a ton of interest at next summer’s deadline, though there’s always the possibility of an early-season injury tanking his trade value. An offseason trade would also keep open the chance for an acquiring team to recoup draft compensation if Helsley walks in free agency. Teams can only make a qualifying offer to players they’ve had on the roster for the whole season. A team that acquires Helsley before Opening Day could make him a QO next winter; one that lands him at the deadline could not.

Qualifying offers for relievers are rare but not unheard of. Raisel Iglesias and Josh Hader declined QOs before their trips to free agency. Edwin Díaz would’ve received a QO had he not re-signed just before hitting the market. A typical Helsley season could put him in that tier. There’s enough volatility with relievers that he certainly wouldn’t be a lock for the QO, but that possibility could hold some value to other teams now and would not exist over the summer.

The Cardinals themselves could make Helsley a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him at all. Speculation about a full teardown has quieted in recent weeks. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, both of whom have no-trade clauses, are unlikely to be dealt after expressing their preference to stick around. The Cards are expected to entertain trade possibilities on Nolan Arenado. Beyond that, they could run things back with most of last year’s roster. Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Kittredge and Lance Lynn were their free agents of note.

Perhaps the Cardinals feel they can hang in the NL Central mix if they get a few internal improvements. There’s still a decent amount of talent on a roster that finished above .500 at 83-79 this year. Winning the division would be a long shot unless they’re active in free agency, but they seem to be willing to at least see how things play out in the season’s first couple months.

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