Poll: Will Konnor Griffin Break Camp With The Pirates?
As Spring Training gets underway, many fans are watching top prospects. For the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin, however, it’s not just fans in Pittsburgh watching to see if he’ll be in the starting lineup on Opening Day; it’s the entire baseball world.
Griffin won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until the end of April. The ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft opened eyes all around the sport with his performance in his first professional season last year, slashing .333/.415/.527 in 122 games across three levels, topping out in Double-A. That was enough to make him the consensus top prospect in the sport. The Athletic’s Keith Law called Griffin “the most exciting prospect in the minors since Mike Trout” last month, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen described Griffin as “a franchise-altering entity whose talent rivals that of Bobby Witt Jr.”
It’s hard to get much more impressive than comparisons to Trout and Witt. Between the hype prospect evaluators of all stripes are heaping onto Griffin and his unbelievable start to his pro career, it’s understandable that he would be in the conversation to start the season with the Pirates on Opening Day, even though he’ll still be a teenager.
For now, the Pirates are saying all the right things. Every indication has been that the team will give Griffin the opportunity to earn his way onto the roster. The players currently standing in his way, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, aren’t the sort of slam-dunk regulars that would normally give a club pause when it comes to pushing one of them into a bench role. That open avenue toward a roster spot is great news for Griffin, and so far he’s made the most of the opportunity he’s been handed during camp with two homers in his first ten plate appearances this spring.
There are other factors to consider as well. The most obvious is that Griffin is extremely inexperienced as a professional. He’s played only 122 professional games. Elite prospects have been getting called up more quickly since Trout made his debut 15 years ago, but even by more recent standards Griffin would be among the fastest to reach the show. Witt had 161 games in the minors before his big league debut, and Juan Soto‘s short stint in the minor leagues lasted 122 games, the exact amount Griffin logged last year.
The Pirates are entering a year where they’re clearing trying to win, more than in other recent seasons. They added Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Marcell Ozuna to help bolster a stagnant offense and added Gregory Soto to the bullpen as well. That quartet cost around $60MM in total, which is a notable chunk of change by the Pirates’ typical standards.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is under club control for just four more seasons before he’ll reach free agency and could see his arbitration price explode by 2027 or 2028. The Pirates are acutely aware of that, and getting the most out of Griffin they possibly can while Skenes is still in town should be the team’s top priority.
Service time is another factor the Pirates will need to consider, and that cuts both ways when it comes to the Griffin decision. Holding Griffin down for even just three weeks to start the year could unlock a seventh year of team control over Griffin by ensuring he doesn’t earn a full year of MLB service in 2026. The counter to that, of course, is Skenes himself. The Pirates didn’t promote Skenes until May 2024, but he was still dominant enough once he arrived to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and earn himself a full year of service anyway. Had they simply brought Skenes up on Opening Day, the Pirates would’ve been able to secure an extra draft pick thanks to his Rookie of the Year win.
Another wrinkle in the service time conversation is Griffin’s apparent willingness to consider an extension with Pittsburgh. If the sides were to reach a deal either this spring or in the early days of the 2026 campaign, that would negate the service time concerns. While explicitly holding a player down due to service time considerations or promoting them only if they agree to an extension is frowned upon, it has happened. The prospect promotion incentives added in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement have somewhat lessened the frequency with which such situations occur, but they’ve also prompted some teams to wait until late August with prospects who otherwise look ready, so as to preserve their rookie status (and potential PPI gains) the following season. The Pirates didn’t call Bubba Chandler up until Aug. 22 last year. If they do agree to an extension, the Bucs would be incentivized to not finalize it until after Griffin’s debut. A player who signs a pre-debut extension is not eligible to earn a PPI pick for his team.
How do MLBTR readers think Griffin’s candidacy for a spot on the Opening Day roster will play out? Will he make the team, or start the year in the minor leagues? Or, perhaps, could his status on the MLB roster be determined by how extension talks between the sides go this spring? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Konnor Griffin break camp with the Pirates?
Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners
The 2025 Mariners were a game away from the World Series. Their two-decade playoff drought and status as perennial runner-up increasingly feels like a thing of the past. They enter the 2026 season as the AL West favorite in projections at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus after a winter that featured multiple upgrades.
Major League Free Agent Signings
- Josh Naylor, 1B: Five years, $92.5MM
- Rob Refsnyder, OF: One year, $6.25MM
- Andrew Knizner, C: One year, $1MM
Option Decisions
- Team declined $12MM mutual option on C Mitch Garver (paid $1MM buyout)
- Team exercised $7MM club option on RHP Andres Munoz
- INF Jorge Polanco declined $8MM player option
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Acquired INF/OF Brendan Donovan from Cardinals in three-team trade also involving Rays; Mariners sent SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, OF Tai Peete, Competitive Balance pick (Round B) to Cardinals, 3B Ben Williamson to Rays
- Acquired LHP Jose A. Ferrer from Nationals in exchange for C Harry Ford, minor league RHP Isaac Lyon
- Acquired RHP Yosver Zulueta from Reds in exchange for minor league RHP Dusty Revis
- Acquired minor league LHP Robinson Ortiz from Dodgers in exchange for minor league RHP Tyler Gough
- Acquired minor league RHP Alex Hoppe from Red Sox in exchange for minor league C Luke Heyman
- Acquired RHP Cooper Criswell from Mets for cash
- Acquired C Jhonny Pereda from Twins for cash
- Acquired LHP Josh Simpson from Marlins for cash
- Acquired RHP Cole Wilcox from Rays for cash
- Claimed RHP Ryan Loutos off waivers from Nationals
Extensions
- None yet
Notable Minor League Signings
- Mitch Garver, Dane Dunning, Connor Joe, Casey Lawrence, Randy Dobnak, Guillo Zuñiga, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Rucker, Jhonathan Diaz, Brian O’Keefe, Jakson Reetz, Will Wilson, Brennen Davis
Notable Losses
- Eugenio Suarez, Ben Williamson, Harry Ford, Caleb Ferguson, Luke Jackson, Tayler Saucedo (non-tendered), Gregory Santos (non-tendered), Trent Thornton (non-tendered), Jackson Kowar (claimed by Twins)
When fans think of the Mariners, the dominant starting rotation is often the first thing that comes to mind. The 2025 season, Seattle’s best since 2000-02, played out in somewhat uncharacteristic fashion, however. The rotation was solid but not elite. Mariners starters barely cracked the top half of baseball in terms of ERA, due in part to injuries up and down the staff. Seattle’s bullpen ranked top-10 in ERA, however, and the lineup finished tenth or better in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. Cal Raleigh, the AL MVP runner-up, played a huge role in the Mariners’ offensive eruption, but the Seattle lineup was a strong unit top to bottom.
Seattle’s deadline acquisition of Josh Naylor from the D-backs played a big part in that. Naylor hit the ground running in the Emerald City and immediately looked at home, slashing .299/.341/.490 with nine homers in 210 plate appearances. The 5’10”, 235-pound Naylor even delighted baseball fans (not just Seattle fans) by somehow going 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts despite sitting in the third percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. Naylor entered the season with 25 career steals in 598 games. He played 54 games as a Mariner.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made it known before season’s end that keeping Naylor was not just a priority for the Mariners but the offseason priority. Appearing on the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, Dipoto told host Darragh McDonald that Naylor was “as good as anybody that’s played in the last handful of years at hitting in this ballpark” while voicing a strong desire to keep the 28-year-old slugger.
True to his word, Dipoto wasted little time in making an aggressive push to keep his newly acquired first baseman. Naylor, who also raved late in the season about how much he loved playing in Seattle, was one of the first major free agents off the board, coming to terms on a five-year, $92.5MM deal two weeks after the World Series wrapped up.
Naylor’s deal is the largest contract the Mariners have given to a free-agent position player since Dipoto began running baseball operations for the Mariners more than a decade ago — and not just barely, but by a magnitude of nearly four times. Dipoto has been open about his desires to avoid building a roster through free agency, and his affinity for working the trade market is well known. That Naylor nearly quadrupled the $24MM guarantee paid to Mitch Garver underscores how strongly the Mariners felt about keeping him. Prior to the Naylor signing, Garver was the only free agent position player to sign a multi-year free agent deal with Seattle in ten years.
While Naylor was the priority, the Mariners remained open to re-signing veterans Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez, both of whom hit in the middle of the lineup down the stretch and into the playoffs. Polanco was always deemed more likely, but the Mariners apparently balked at matching or topping the two-year, $40MM deal he received from the Mets. That $20MM average annual value was steeper than nearly any pundit or fan thought Polanco would command.
The veteran Polanco’s departure left the Mariners in a familiar position. As was the case the offseason prior, the M’s had openings at both second base and third base. Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander spent most of the 2024-25 offseason working the trade market to find an option at one or both positions before ultimately re-signing Polanco to one-year deal that turned out to be a raucous bargain.
For much of the current offseason, it looked as though things might play out similarly. The Mariners engaged with the Cardinals on Brendan Donovan early, but interest in the utilityman extraordinaire was robust. Dipoto and Hollander kept in touch with Suarez’s camp, were at least loosely involved in the market for star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, spoke to the D-backs repeatedly about Ketel Marte and inquired on the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner. There were surely other trade and free agent targets whose names didn’t become public.
Through it all, the Mariners were cited as one of the top suitors and front-runners for Donovan, who entered the offseason as a veritable lock to be traded by the rebuilding Cardinals. It may have taken longer than fans hoped, but the Mariners eventually got their man on Feb. 2, parting with top pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje, outfield prospect Tai Peete, young third baseman Ben Williamson and a Round B Competitive Balance draft pick (No. 68 overall) in a three-team deal that brought Donovan their way. Seattle’s interest in the former Gold Glove winner dated back to last season, meaning the three-team swap capped off more than a yearlong pursuit of the versatile infielder/outfielder.
Donovan indeed feels like a perfect fit for the M’s. He’s a quality defender at either third base or second base, meaning the Mariners can see which of Cole Young and Colt Emerson stand out the most this spring. The hope is that Emerson is the team’s long-term third baseman — or perhaps shortstop, if J.P. Crawford departs in free agency next winter — and that Young is the second baseman of the future. Donovan’s ability to play either spot lets the Mariners take a flexible approach to their infield alignment. And if both players eventually force their way onto the roster, Donovan can split time between those two positions, the outfield corners and designated hitter.
While Seattle paid a steep price to acquire Donovan in terms of the talent they surrendered, they’re getting him for just $5.8MM this season and can control him through the 2027 campaign. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the two parties eventually talked extension. Donovan was open to a long-term deal in St. Louis even as the Cards embarked on a rebuild.
Time will tell whether he feels similarly about his new surroundings, but at the very least he doesn’t appear to be dead-set on testing free agency 18 months from now. Recent extensions for Tommy Edman and Ryan McMahon paid that pair of comparably aged infielders $70MM total; Donovan might command a bit more, but a five-year deal in that general range (beginning with next year’s final arbitration season) feels like something that could work for both sides, speculatively speaking.
Even if no extension comes to fruition, Donovan will be hitting at or near the top of a deep Mariners lineup for the next two seasons. He’s the sort of versatile, high-contact bat the Mariners coveted several years ago when trying to reshape their offensive identity after years of ranking at or near the top of the league in strikeouts. With Donovan (career 13.5% strikeout rate) and Naylor (career 16%) now helping to anchor the lineup, the M’s have a bit of a different feel than the all-or-nothing bunch to which we’d grown accustomed earlier this decade.
The Donovan trade may have been the Mariners “signature” trade of the offseason, but it wasn’t the only swap of consequence for Dipoto, Hollander & Co. One of the Mariners’ first moves post-Naylor was to address the lack of reliable left-handed relief in their bullpen, swinging a trade for Nationals southpaw Jose A. Ferrer. Many fans were shocked to see the Mariners part with top catching prospect Harry Ford to acquire a reliever, but Ford was blocked by Raleigh with no clear path to playing time in Seattle. That doesn’t mean he can be swapped out for any old bullpen arm, but what Ferrer lacks in name recognition he makes up for in extremely intriguing underlying numbers.
Ferrer’s 4.15 ERA over the past two seasons (4.48 in 2025) isn’t going to garner much attention. However, that mark came playing in front of a porous Nationals defense that rarely did the flamethrowing sinker specialist help. The 25-year-old Ferrer (26 next week) averages a blazing 97.7 mph on a sinker that’s helped him post a gargantuan 61% ground-ball rate dating back to 2024 — fifth highest in all of baseball (min. 100 innings pitched).
In 2025, Ferrer upped his strikeout rate from the prior year’s 19.4% to a nearly league-average 21.9%. His swinging-strike rate rose to a slightly above-average 11.5%. Ferrer has only walked 4.9% of his opponents the past two seasons. That blend of plus command and plus-plus ground-ball tendencies, coupled with even average bat-missing abilities (and a competent defense behind him) gives Ferrer immense breakout potential. Metrics like SIERA (2.97) and FIP (2.95) already feel he’s great, and the Mariners’ track record in coaxing breakouts from unheralded relievers (e.g. Paul Sewald, Gabe Speier, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa) shouldn’t be overlooked. Ferrer is controlled for four more seasons and has two minor league option years remaining. Adding him to a bullpen anchored by Andres Munoz and Matt Brash could make for a lethal trio.
Most of the remaining moves were more on the margins of the roster. Rob Refsnyder and his lifetime .281/.383/.443 line against lefties (.302/.399/.560 in 2025) gives manager Dan Wilson a big platoon bat to pair with lefty-swinging outfielder/designated hitter Dominic Canzone, who’s coming off a breakout .281/.358/.481 showing in 268 plate appearances. Canzone more than held his own against lefties, so he’ll still get some left-on-left looks, but all of his power was against righties. Only two of his 22 extra-base hits (one double, one homer) came versus southpaws.
Andrew Knizner was brought in on a moderately surprising big league deal to be the backup to Raleigh. He’s earning just $1MM, so it’s a minimal commitment if Knizner doesn’t pan out. He’s a career .211/.281/.316 hitter whose defensive marks have improved in a small sample over the past two seasons. Notably, he was one of the best catchers in Triple-A last year when it came to challenging pitches under the incoming ABS system, which could have factored into the decision. Catching depth in general was a priority though, as they also reunited with Mitch Garver on a minor league deal and picked up Jhonny Pereda from the Twins in a cash swap.
Assembling a deep collection of optionable arms also proved to be a priority this winter. The Mariners acquired a whopping six optionable young relievers via either small trades or waivers. The current big league bullpen doesn’t have much flexibility — Ferrer and Brash are the only optionable arms, and neither is being sent down anytime soon — so it’s possible something will shake loose later in camp with the Mariners moving on from an out of options arm like Casey Legumina. The Mariners added Yosver Zulueta, Josh Simpson, Cole Wilcox, Alex Hoppe and Robinson Ortiz via trade and claimed Ryan Loutos off waivers. They’ll have plenty of options to evaluate when injuries inevitably crop up among the more experienced members of the bullpen.
The starting pitching lacks that same level of depth, particularly after sixth starter Logan Evans suffered a UCL tear that’ll require season-ending surgery. The Mariners’ top quintet of Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller is among the most talented in the game, but the top options behind him are now out-of-options swingman Cooper Criswell, former prospect Emerson Hancock (who’s struggled in the majors thus far) and non-roster veteran Dane Dunning. Finding an optionable rotation candidate or bringing in one more low-cost or non-roster veteran would arguably still be prudent, but even if they opt to do so, it’s not likely to be one of the top names available.
By and large, the Mariners’ heavy lifting is wrapped up. Naylor, Donovan and Ferrer are quality headline additions, but the M’s have done plenty of work to round out the margins of the roster with improved depth to position them for the rigors of a long season. They’ll head into 2026 as a popular pick to win their division at the very least, and better health from their top starters could make Seattle one of the favorites in the broader American League overall.
How would you grade the Mariners' offseason?
Diamondbacks Notes: Kelly, Pfaadt, Mena
The Diamondbacks rotation is an early focus in camp. Right-hander Merrill Kelly was slated to be the Opening Day starter but a back issue has scuttled those plans, even though an exact diagnosis has proved elusive. Manager Torey Lovullo tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that Kelly still has enough time to be stretched out for Arizona’s second series of the season.
The Snakes begin their season on March 26th with three games in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. They then have an off-day before starting a seven-game homestand with Detroit coming to town for three and Atlanta for four. Though Kelly won’t take the ball for Opening Day, it would be nice to get him in there at some point fairly early in the schedule.
That will presumably be contingent on his body cooperating. He has been subject to a number of recent tests, including an MRI and a CT scan, without anything conclusive being discovered. While it’s encouraging that the tests keep coming back negative, Kelly has still been experiencing pain while throwing.
Time will tell how things play out with Kelly. If he does eventually require some time on the injured list, then the rotation jobs should go to Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka. Pfaadt is also under the microscope somewhat, as Piecoro relays that he had some kind of issue with his side during the offseason. He appears to be fine now but the club is slow-playing his progression a bit.
Beyond that group, the depth is lacking in experience. Cristian Mena, Yilber Díaz, Kohl Drake, Mitch Bratt and Dylan Ray are on the 40-man roster. The latter three haven’t yet cracked the majors. Díaz has just 31 1/3 innings while Mena has only 9 2/3.
Mena is also unlikely to be available anytime soon. He didn’t pitch after June last year due to a strain of the teres major in his throwing shoulder. Per Piecoro, Mena has re-aggravated that teres major injury recently. His timetable isn’t exactly clear but he has been shut down from throwing for the time being.
If everything goes well, Soroka could end up in a long relief/swingman role, ready to jump into the rotation as soon as someone gets hurt as Kelly, Gallen, Rodríguez, Pfaadt and Nelson make starts. But Kelly’s status is up in the air and Pfaadt is being monitored closely. The depth was already on the light side and now Mena has been subtracted from it, at least for now. Non-roster guys with big league experience include Joe Ross, Thomas Hatch and Bryce Jarvis.
If the Snakes want to add to the group, there are still starting pitching free agents available. Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell are the two most notable ones but Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson and a few others are also out there. The club may be reluctant to add more money to the ledger, however, as they already stretched beyond their plans when grabbing Gallen a couple of weeks ago.
Photo courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images
Athletics Have Made Extension Offer To Nick Kurtz
2:30pm: Kurtz tells Tyler Kepner of The Athletic that he is “Definitely open and interested” in a long-term deal but added that “It’s just about timing.”
1:10pm: The Athletics have made an extension offer to first baseman Nick Kurtz, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. No specifics of the offer have been reported and it’s unclear how likely it is for the two sides to reach an agreement.
The A’s have been busy on the extension front in recent years. It appears there is a dual motivation at play, connected to their ongoing move from Oakland to Las Vegas, with a stop in West Sacramento in between. Reportedly, they wanted to increase their spending in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA, so as to not risk losing their revenue-sharing status during the move. Also, it seems the club wants to have an exciting and consistent young core in place to help them build a fanbase when they get to Vegas, currently planned for Opening Day 2028.
About this time last year, they got two extensions done. They signed outfielder/designated hitter Brent Rooker to a five-year, $60MM pact, then inked Lawrence Butler to a seven-year, $65.5MM deal. They have continued down that road this offseason. It was reported on Christmas Day that they had agreed to a seven-year, $86MM deal with outfielder Tyler Soderstrom. That was followed by a seven-year, $70MM deal for shortstop Jacob Wilson about a month ago.
Kurtz is another sensible target. He just made his debut last year at the age of 22. His 30.9% strikeout rate was on the high side but he drew walks at a strong 12.9% clip and hit 36 home runs in only 489 plate appearances. He was the unanimous choice for American League Rookie of the Year, even though he wasn’t called up until late April.
Even though he missed part of the season, Kurtz was retroactively awarded a full year of service time for that award win, as part of the prospect promotion incentive rules. That means the A’s currently control him for another five seasons instead of six. He is going into his age-23 season and is slated for free agency after his age-27 season.
If the A’s want to sign him for longer than that, it makes sense to do it sooner rather than later. Players generally get more earning power as they approach free agency. The record guarantee for a player with one year of service time or less is Julio Rodríguez, who got $210MM from the Mariners. For guys with two years of service, Fernando Tatis Jr. got $340MM and Bobby Witt Jr. got $288.8MM. For guys who have pushed into their arbitration seasons, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the record at $500MM.
That doesn’t mean that getting something done now would be easy, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined in detail earlier this month in a post for Front Office subscribers. For one thing, Kurtz is represented by Excel Sports Management, an agency with even less of a track record of early-career extensions than the Boras Corporation.
Kurtz also shouldn’t be desperate for cash in the short term. He got a $7MM signing bonus after being drafted fourth overall in 2024. He also would have added around $2MM in 2025. The league minimum salary was $760K last year and Kurtz earned just under $1.3MM via the pre-arbitration bonus pool.
Considering those factors, as well as Kurtz’s prospect pedigree and rookie season, Franco concluded that it would probably take $150MM or more to lock up Kurtz now. He’s in a similar position to Rodríguez when he signed his $210MM deal with Seattle, though Rodríguez had more earning power as a strong defensive center fielder, whereas Kurtz is farther down the defensive spectrum as a first baseman. The $150MM range would get Kurtz beyond Roman Anthony, who only had a couple of months of big league experience and was one year further from free agency than Kurtz when he signed his $130MM deal.
Getting to that range would require the A’s to effectively double their franchise record, which is currently held by the $86MM deal for Soderstrom. The long-term books aren’t totally clean, as the four aforementioned extensions are there. However, none of those deals has an average annual value of even $13MM. The salaries do increase over time but none of the guaranteed seasons even reach $20MM.
If the A’s wait, they run the risk of Kurtz continuing to perform, which would gradually nudge his earning power closer to that of Guerrero. Even if they can’t get a deal done, they can control Kurtz through 2030. If they open in Vegas in 2028 as planned, they could still potentially have Kurtz for their first three campaigns in their new home.
Photo courtesy of Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images
Twins Claim Zak Kent
The Twins announced Thursday that they’ve claimed righty Zak Kent off waivers from the Cardinals, who’d designated him for assignment a few days ago. Righty Pablo López, who underwent an internal brace procedure yesterday and will miss the entire 2026 season, was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
Kent joins his third team since spring training opened and his fourth of the offseason. The 28-year-old (as of Tuesday) finished the 2025 campaign on the Guardians’ roster but has since bounced to the Cardinals, Rangers, back to the Cardinals, and now to the Twins following a series of DFAs. There’s fortunately no cross-country journey for him this time around, as the Twins and Cardinals both play their spring games in Florida’s Grapefruit League.
The 2025 season saw Kent make his big league debut with Cleveland, tossing 17 2/3 innings with a 4.58 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. Most of his season was spent with the Guardians’ top affiliate in Columbus, where Kent notched a 2.84 ERA and set down a gaudy 31.4% of his opponents on strikes — albeit against an ugly 13.2% walk rate. Kent isn’t an especially hard thrower, sitting 93.1 mph with his four-seamer in 2025, but he missed plenty of bats in the upper minors thanks to the quality of his mid-80s slider and low-80s curveball.
Kent is entering his final minor league option year. He’s actually already exhausted the standard three option years allotted to players, but teams can be granted fourth option years based on a player’s minor league injury history and/or the speed with which they burn through those original option years. He’ll give the Twins another option to consider in a wide-open bullpen mix that has only Cole Sands, Anthony Banda, Taylor Rogers and Justin Topa locked into spots. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Kent carries a 3.74 ERA, a 26% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate.
Blue Jays To Re-Sign Max Scherzer
11:07am: Scherzer’s contract includes ten separate $1MM bonuses based on innings pitched, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. He’ll unlock the first of those bonuses for pitching 65 innings and then reach another $1MM bonus for every tenth inning, up through 155 frames overall.
Feb. 26, 9:55am: Scherzer still has to pass his physical which should take place in the near future, manager John Schneider tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The Jays are expecting him in camp sometime this weekend.
Feb. 25: The Blue Jays are reportedly bringing Max Scherzer back on a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client is guaranteed $3MM and can reportedly earn up to $10MM in incentives. Toronto can open space on the 40-man roster by placing Anthony Santander on the 60-day injured list once the contract is finalized.
It’ll be the future Hall of Famer’s second season in Toronto. The three-time Cy Young winner signed a $15.5MM deal with the Jays during the 2024-25 offseason. He was coming off an abbreviated season in which he’d been limited to nine starts for the Rangers. Scherzer had undergone back surgery the previous offseason, and a nerve issue in his throwing arm limited him once he recovered from the back procedure.
The arm remained problematic last season. Scherzer left his team debut after three innings because of thumb soreness. That had been traced to the nerve issue and ultimately led the Jays to shut Scherzer down for a couple months. He didn’t return to an MLB mound until late June.
Scherzer was able to avoid the injured list after that point but didn’t perform to his usual level. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. He closed the season with a 5.19 mark over 85 innings. Scherzer only once allowed more than four runs in a start, but he only went beyond five innings on seven occasions. He had six quality starts in 17 appearances.
The 17-year veteran is still capable of missing bats at a league average level. He struck out a slightly above-average 23% of batters faced against a tidy 6.4% walk rate. The issue is the damage hitters have done when they make contact. Scherzer allowed more than two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. It was the fourth-highest homer rate in MLB among pitchers who threw 70+ innings.
Scherzer’s fastball averaged 93.6 mph last season. That’s a tick higher than his 2024 mark, reversing a slight downward trend in his velocity during his late 30s. He nevertheless had a tough time getting hitters to chase his breaking pitches outside the strike zone. Scherzer obviously doesn’t have the same caliber of stuff he did at his peak, which makes him more hittable when he’s forced to challenge hitters. He has allowed a higher than average home run rate in three straight seasons.
At age 41, Scherzer profiles as a back-end starter on paper. Yet he has a wealth of big game experience and showed he’s still capable of getting outs on the biggest stage. The Jays left Scherzer off the roster for their Division Series matchup with the Yankees. They brought him back for the AL Championship Series against Seattle and the World Series showdown with the Dodgers.
Scherzer tossed 5 2/3 frames of two-run ball to get the win in ALCS Game 4. He struggled a bit in Game 3 of the World Series before coming back with one run allowed in 4 1/3 innings in Game 7. Scherzer left the mound with a 3-1 lead in a performance that would have been etched into Toronto sports history if the bullpen had held the lead.
They’ll aim to get over the hump in 2026. Assuming Scherzer builds up in time for Opening Day, he’ll probably slot into a six-man rotation to begin the season. Shane Bieber will begin the year on the injured list after experiencing forearm fatigue during the playoff run. Toronto had been slated to open the season with a starting five of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce.
Yesavage is entering his first full MLB season. Ponce is a bit of a wild card in his return from Korea. Scherzer presumably isn’t going to log 150+ innings at this stage of his career. Opening with a six-man rotation would allow the Jays to take some of the burden off a rotation that shouldered as heavy a load as possible into October.
That comes with a trickle-down impact on the bullpen, however. The 13-pitcher limit means the Jays would be down to a seven-man bullpen if they go this route. That increases the importance of having a quality long reliever like Eric Lauer to handle multiple innings.
At the same time, this makes it less likely that Lauer will have a chance to win a rotation spot. The left-hander is an impending free agent and said he’d prefer a starting opportunity. There hasn’t been any indication that Lauer would seek a trade if the Jays keep him in a relief role, though the southpaw told Mitch Bannon of The Athletic he believes that pitching out of the bullpen last season cost him money in arbitration. Lauer lost his hearing, meaning he’ll make the team’s desired $4.4MM salary rather than his camp’s $5.75MM filing figure.
That could be a situation worth monitoring if everyone remains healthy closer to Opening Day. For now, this looks like the ideal outcome for the Jays and Scherzer alike. The $3MM base salary will push their franchise-record luxury tax payroll to approximately $319MM, according to RosterResource. The Jays are taxed at a 90% rate on spending above $304MM. This signing comes with a $2.7MM base tax. Earned performance bonuses are part of a team’s CBT calculation, so the Jays would also pay that 90% fee on any dollars that Scherzer unlocks by hitting innings milestones throughout the year.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the agreement. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet had the $3MM base and $10MM in incentives. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images.
Twins’ David Festa Likely To Begin Season On Injured List
The hits for the Twins’ rotation keep coming. Right-hander David Festa, who entered camp hopeful of securing a spot on the starting staff, has been diagnosed with a shoulder impingement and will be shut down from throwing for at least two to three weeks, per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune. He’s received an injection and is likely to open the season on the 15-day injured list.
Since camp opened just two weeks ago, Minnesota has lost Pablo López for the entire season (internal brace surgery) and seen No. 2 starter Joe Ryan slowed by inflammation in his lower back. Ryan has already resumed throwing, but what looked like a quietly crowded Twins’ rotation mix has begun to thin out rather quickly.
Assuming Ryan’s back issue proves minor, the Twins will enter the season with him and right-hander Bailey Ober locked into spots. Righty Simeon Woods Richardson is out of minor league options and pitched well down the stretch in 2025, so he’s likely to grab a third spot. Festa had been competing with homegrown righty Zebby Matthews and 2025 trade acquisitions Taj Bradley (acquired for Griffin Jax) and Mick Abel (acquired for Jhoan Duran) for spots at the back of the group. All four were top-100 prospects in the game prior to their respective debuts.
For now, the competition for those two remaining spots appears to have been whittled down to three (Matthews, Bradley, Abel). There are some longshot options in camp, like southpaw prospects Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas, as well as righty Andrew Morris. All three are on the 40-man roster, but no one from that trio has made his big league debut yet. Prielipp and Rojas have barely pitched in Triple-A.
Festa’s injury is the latest health-related setback in the lanky righty’s development. The 2021 13th-rounder has had the look of a late-round steal thanks to terrific strikeout and run-prevention numbers as he climbed through the minors, but he’s now been slowed by two different injuries within the same shoulder over the past year. Festa has started 25 career games in Triple-A, pitching to a 3.46 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and a swinging-strike rate north of 16%. He’s had some nice starts in the majors but lacked consistency, working to an overall 5.12 ERA in 117 2/3 frames dating back to his 2024 debut.
With injuries mounting for the Twins’ staff, it’ll be telling to see whether they look outside the organization. New executive chair Tom Pohlad, who took that post from younger brother Joe when the Twins introduced a trio of new minority owners in December, has said since assuming that new position that the Twins “want to be aggressive” and believe they can compete despite last summer’s July sell-off. Pohlad publicly confirmed that his club made a run at Framber Valdez before he signed in Detroit, hoping to capitalize on the opportunity presented by Valdez lingering on the market.
None of the remaining starters in free agency — Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Tyler Anderson among them — can match Valdez’s output, but someone like Giolito or Littell would at least give the Twins some credible mid-rotation innings to help offset the loss of López and provide insurance while Ryan and Festa deal with what will hopefully prove to be relatively minor injury issues. The Twins’ payroll currently projects to come in about $30MM shy of last year’s levels and around $50MM shy of its 2023 peak. That, coupled with their purported interest in Valdez, certainly suggests that there’s room in the budget for another established arm.
Turning back to Festa specifically, it’s a frustrating setback for the lanky 6’6″, 185-pound righty, but there’s no immediate indication that it could be a long-term issue. He enters the 2026 season with 1.052 years of big league service and a pair of minor league option years remaining. The Twins control the 25-year-old for at least five more years. If a rotation role doesn’t work out, Festa’s 94.5 mph heater and above-average slider and changeup could all play up in a relief role. Minnesota’s bullpen looks even more uncertain than the rotation and will need several young, unproven contributors to seize key roles in order to avoid being one of the weakest groups in the sport (barring some late veteran signings).
Yankees, Randal Grichuk Agree To Minor League Deal
Feb. 26: Grichuk will earn a $2.5MM base salary if he makes the Yankees’ roster, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Feb. 25: The Yankees are in agreement with veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk on a minor league contract, reports Jack Curry of The Yes Network. The Paragon Sports International client will be in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported this week that the Yankees continued to look for a righty-hitting platoon bat. Grichuk fits the bill without commanding a guaranteed roster spot. The 34-year-old will try to play his way into a spot on Aaron Boone’s bench during Spring Training. If he does, he’d take at-bats from Trent Grisham against left-handed pitching. Cody Bellinger is one of the best left-on-left hitters in MLB, so he’d play center field with Grichuk drawing into the corner opposite Aaron Judge.
Grichuk isn’t coming off a great season. He’d hit at a league average level for the Diamondbacks and was traded to the Royals at the deadline. His bat cratered in Kansas City, leaving him with a .228/.273/.401 slash line across 293 trips to the plate. That included an underwhelming .227/.273/.430 mark in 183 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.
The 11-year MLB veteran had destroyed lefty pitching in the three preceding seasons. Between 2022-24, he put up a .317/.367/.573 mark against southpaws. He connected on 25 home runs, 34 doubles and four triples in fewer than 500 plate appearances. He had the fifth-highest OPS against lefties over that stretch (min. 450 PAs).
That version of Grichuk would obviously be an excellent piece to have off the bench. His strikeout rate against lefties climbed nearly seven percentage points a year ago, so there’s no guarantee he’ll get back to his 2022-24 form. He’s not going to get a huge sample of short side platoon at-bats during Spring Training, leaving the Yankees with an interesting call in whether to have him round out their bench.
Jasson Domínguez already looked likely to begin the season in Triple-A. If Grichuk makes the team, that’s an inevitability barring multiple Spring Training injuries. It’d leave the Yankees with a very right-handed bench. Paul Goldschmidt and Amed Rosario are locks, leaving backup catcher J.C. Escarra as the only lefty bench bat in that scenario. Oswaldo Cabrera would either start the season in Triple-A or on the injured list, while out-of-options Jorbit Vivas would be traded or placed on waivers.
The Yankees probably need to carry Grichuk on the Opening Day roster to keep him in the organization. He’s an Article XX(b) free agent — a veteran who finished last season on an MLB roster. Those players who sign non-roster invites have three guaranteed opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Grichuk can return to the open market at the end of Spring Training if he doesn’t break camp with New York.
Pablo López Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure
Feb. 26: López wound up “only” requiring an internal brace procedure rather than a full Tommy John surgery/ligament reconstruction, Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune writes. López will still miss the entire 2026 season, but the internal brace route comes with a slightly shorter timeline than a full reconstruction. López now has a better chance of being available for Opening Day 2027.
Feb. 20: Twins right-hander Pablo López will have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Earlier this week, the Twins revealed that he had tearing in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. He took a few days to explore a second opinion but it seems there was no avoiding the worst-case scenario.
It’ll be the second Tommy John procedure for López. His first was more than a decade ago. He’ll miss the entire 2026 season and hope to be ready early in the 2027 campaign, which will be the final season of his four-year, $73.5MM contract with the Twins. López is being paid $21.75MM both this season and next.
The Twins acquired López and a pair of prospects from the Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. He’s been a rocksteady performer near the top of Minnesota’s rotation for the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.68 ERA with even more impressive rate stats (26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 43.1 GB%). Metrics like SIERA (3.48) and FIP (3.44) feel he’s been a hair better than his already solid earned run average would indicate.
In 2025, López raced out of the gates with a 2.82 ERA and his typically strong rate stats through his first 11 starts (60 2/3 innings). A Grade 2 strain of his teres major suffered in early June wound up costing him about three months, however. López returned with three sharp starts in September, allowing four runs in 15 innings, before ending the season on the injured list due to a minor forearm strain.
The Twins said after the season that López could have pitched through the injury had the team been in the playoff hunt but opted to shut him down with their season already lost. He received a clean bill of health not long after and had a generally normal offseason. The UCL tear seemingly popped up during his first bullpen session this spring.
Although Minnesota tore the bullpen down last summer at the deadline and sold off several impending free agents (a total of 11 players), they opted not to completely rebuild this winter. After some early uncertainty about how they’d approach the offseason, the team’s sale of a minority stake to three new shareholders gave the front office the necessary space to make some modest additions. Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers all signed as free agents, and the Twins opted not to trade López, rotationmate Joe Ryan, catcher Ryan Jeffers (a free agent next winter) or franchise center fielder Byron Buxton.
New executive chair Tom Pohlad has been vocal about his desire to compete and his belief that the roster has a better chance at doing so than those outside the organization think. The Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez and also jumped into the Freddy Peralta bidding, with both of those late-offseason overtures coming after the ownership situation had gained some clarity. Obviously, neither came to fruition, but it stands to reason based on those two efforts that the Twins could at least consider going outside the organization, where Lucas Giolito and old friend Zack Littell are among the notable veterans who’ve yet to sign a contract.
With López formally out for the year, it’ll almost certainly fall to fellow right-hander Joe Ryan to take the mound on Opening Day. Right-hander Bailey Ober will look to bounce back from a season that was torched by an awful June (after which he went on the injured list due to a hip injury). Simeon Woods Richardson is out of minor league options and logged a 4.04 ERA in 111 1/3 innings last year (including a flat 3.00 ERA over his final 14 starts). He should be all but assured a rotation spot as well.
Homegrown former top prospects Zebby Matthews and David Festa will join deadline pickups Taj Bradley and Mick Abel in competing for Opening Day rotation spots, while prospects like Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas and Andrew Morris could challenge for innings as the season wears on, depending on health and performance in Triple-A.
The Opener: Imai, Kolek, Scherzer
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Imai to make stateside debut:
New Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai has pitched his entire career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, but he’ll make his first career MLB Spring Training appearance later today. Imai is the scheduled start for the Astros’ split squad game against the Mets, which is set to begin at 1:05pm ET in the team’s West Palm Beach facility. The righty has a career 3.15 ERA in 159 starts for the Seibu Lions and in 2025 posted a dominant 1.92 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The 27-year-old flamethrower will get his first opportunity to show what he can do against big league players later today.
2. Kolek dealing with back issue:
Royals right-hander Stephen Kolek was scheduled to make his first appearance of Spring Training for the Royals yesterday, but Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that he was scratched from his scheduled outing after experiencing tightness in the left side of his back while warming up. He’s getting his back checked out, and more information about the right-hander’s status could be available as soon as today. Kolek posted a 3.51 ERA in 19 starts between the Padres and Royals, who acquired him (and Ryan Bergert) in a deadline trade sending catcher Freddy Fermin to San Diego. That may not be enough to crack a deep Royals rotation without an injury creating room in the starting five, but Kolek should be able to compete for a job in the bullpen or head to Triple-A Omaha as the organization’s top depth arm, as long as he’s not dealing with a notable back injury.
3. Scherzer signing in Toronto:
Another notable free agent came off the board last night when future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer returned to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $3MM deal featuring incentives that can push the deal up to $13MM. Scherzer will hope for better health than in 2025, when he was limited to just 17 starts with a lackluster 5.19 ERA. The Blue Jays certainly seem to think he’s still capable of more even headed into his age-41 campaign, and they’re committed enough to the idea of Scherzer contributing this year that they’re willing to dedicate a 40-man roster spot to the veteran. That means a corresponding move will be necessary once the deal becomes official, though moving Anthony Santander (who is expected to miss most of the 2026 campaign) to the 60-day injured list would make that little more than a formality.