Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?
With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams are now focused on the incoming season and being the team to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, however, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The AL Champion Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East yesterday with 39% of the vote. Today, we’ll be moving on to the AL Central. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Cleveland Guardians (88-75)
The Guardians managed to sneak their way into an AL Central title in the eleventh hour last year, overtaking the Tigers at the very end of the year thanks to a 20-7 September. They immediately got bounced from the playoffs by Detroit, however, and their response to that quick exit this postseason has left something to be desired. That seemed like a setup for a big offseason, but no such eventful winter occurred. Deserved as Jose Ramirez‘s latest extension may have been, it does nothing to improve the team for 2026. The only potential impact player the team has added anywhere on the roster is veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who is in camp on a minor league deal but is all but certain to make the team. More or less running back a roster that won 88 games last year isn’t the worst idea in the world, but it’s easy to feel as though last year’s division champs may have been overtaken by their rivals who made bigger splashes over the offseason.
Detroit Tigers (87-76)
The Tigers took the Mariners to Game 5 of the ALDS before falling just short, and now they’ll be looking to make the most out of what is likely to be Tarik Skubal‘s final season with the organization. A reunion with Gleyber Torres was the only big move on offense (although the impending debut of top prospect Kevin McGonigle could still transform the team’s lineup this year), but the Tigers were very active in overhauling their pitching staff. Framber Valdez joins Skubal at the front of the rotation and helps cushion the blow of losing Reese Olson to shoulder surgery, while Justin Verlander provides some mid-rotation stability in his homecoming at 43 years old. In the bullpen, the addition of a second future Hall of Fame veteran in Kenley Jansen and a reunion with Kyle Finnegan should create a solid back of the bullpen for a Tigers team that had the second-worst bullpen in the AL by FIP last year. Those additions seem likely to be enough to make the Tigers the favorite to finally claim the AL Central crown for the first time since 2014, though that also seemed likely to be the case last year.
Kansas City Royals (82-80)
The Royals had a middling season last year where they remained on the periphery of playoff relevance but never quite cracked the top tier of contenders. They wound up finishing just barely above .500, but will enter 2026 with hopes of a return to the postseason. Better health from Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic should go a long way for the club, as could the ascension of top prospect Carter Jensen as the heir apparent to franchise catcher Salvador Perez. In terms of external additions, the outfield will now feature Isaac Collins, Starling Marte, and Lane Thomas in addition to incumbents Jac Caglianone and Kyle Isbel, while Matt Strahm was brought in to fortify a high-leverage relief mix that already included Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg. With a handful of solid (if unspectacular) additions and an exciting young talent coming up from the minors, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals having a better year in 2026. Will that be enough to win the division?
Minnesota Twins (70-92)
2025 was a tough year for the Twins, as the organization was unable to lock down the sale both ownership and fans were hoping for off the field, while the team on the diamond struggled badly and wound up getting blown up at last summer’s trade deadline. Minnesota was saved from the basement of the AL Central by the lowly White Sox, but this offseason a change in control person, the hiring of a new manager, and the sudden departure of team president Derek Falvey led to instability at the top of the organization without much movement on the roster to show for it. Josh Bell and Victor Caratini are both solid complementary additions to the lineup, but neither makes up for the loss of Carlos Correa. A rotation that looked like the team’s strength lost Pablo Lopez before the season even began, while Taylor Rogers and others will be asked to save the bullpen after the losses of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland. There’s plenty of interesting young talent (Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Taj Bradley) on the roster, but a whole lot would have to go right for the Twins to fight their way back to the top of the AL Central this year.
Chicago White Sox (60-102)
The White Sox are still in the midst of what figures to be a lengthy rebuilding process, but more optimism can be found in the organization than has been the case for quite a while now. Young, impactful players like Shane Smith, Colson Montgomery, and Kyle Teel are beginning to establish themselves at the big league level, and the White Sox put in some effort to supplement that budding young core with external additions. Munetaka Murakami is the big addition who could easily add 40 home runs to the White Sox lineup if he pans out, but Anthony Kay, Sean Newcomb, and Seranthony Dominguez could all prove to be savvy additions to the roster as well on he pitching side. It would be a shock if these moves were enough to pull Chicago all the way to the top of the AL Central, but it seems possible that their days of losing 100 games a year are coming to a close.
Who do MLBTR readers think will win the division when all is said and done? Will the Guardians manage to come out on top for the third straight season despite virtually no additions? Will the Tigers finally break through in Skubal’s final season before free agency? Will the Royals’ busy offseason be enough to help them take a leap forward? Or will the Twins or White Sox shock the baseball world? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the AL Central in 2026?
Andrew Painter Makes Phillies’ Opening Day Rotation
Phillies manager Rob Thomson informed reporters, including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the rotation is set for the beginning of the season. Cristopher Sánchez will be the Opening Day starter, followed by Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Taijuan Walker and then Andrew Painter. Though Painter is on the 40-man roster, he will be making his major league debut when he takes the ball in that fifth game of the season.
It’s not a surprising outcome. Zack Wheeler is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and will begin the season on the injured list, as has been expected throughout the offseason. Without Wheeler, it has long seemed like the aforementioned five guys would start the season in the rotation, and that has indeed come to pass.
Though it’s not a stunning development, it’s an exciting debut nonetheless. Painter was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league, if not the very best. The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Painter posted a 1.56 earned run average in the minors in 2022, climbing as high as Double-A. It seemed possible he could break camp with the Phils in 2023 even though he would have been a couple of weeks away from his 20th birthday at that time.
Elbow issues popped up in March of that year and scuttled any chance of Painter making the club. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in July, which led to him missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was back on the mound last year but wasn’t dominant. He was able to make 22 Triple-A starts and throw 106 2/3 innings but with a 5.40 ERA in those. His 23.4% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate were close to average.
The prospect shine isn’t quite as bright as it was a few years ago but Painter is still only 22, about to turn 23 next month, and has lots of future potential. Most top 100 prospect lists had him in the 25 to 50 range coming into this year, a drop from being a top ten guy a few years back but still a strong ranking. The Phils added him to the 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. In four starts this spring, he posted a 2.31 ERA, though with a somewhat lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate and a very low .188 batting average on balls in play.
The rotation mix will surely be in flux as the season progresses. Wheeler isn’t expected to be too far off. He is scheduled to pitch in a minor league game on Monday, per Lauber, Wheeler’s first official game action since his surgery. He will surely need a few weeks to build up but is entering the final stages of his recovery.
Unless the Phillies want to deploy a six-man rotation, they will need to bump someone out when Wheeler is back. Painter has a full slate of options and could be sent back to Triple-A. It’s also possible he out-pitches Walker, which could lead to Painter holding a rotation spot. Walker has been bumped to the bullpen in previous seasons, so it’s entirely possible that could happen again.
Since Painter is still a top 100 prospect and is cracking the Opening Day roster, that means he has a chance to benefit the Phillies via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. If he stays in the majors long enough to earn a full year of service time, then wins Rookie of the Year in 2026 or finishes top three in Cy Young voting in his pre-arbitration seasons, he would net the Phils a bonus draft pick in the future.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
Twins Release Gio Urshela, Andrew Chafin
The Twins announced they’ve granted releases to infielder Gio Urshela and reliever Andrew Chafin. Both players were in camp on minor league deals and had been informed they wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster. Minnesota also granted Liam Hendriks his release from a minor league contract this morning.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted this week, Chafin and Hendriks were among more than two dozen veteran players whose deals contained an automatic opt-out opportunity under the collective bargaining agreement. Infielder Orlando Arcia also fits that bill, though the Twins haven’t announced whether he’ll trigger his own out. Urshela didn’t have an automatic opt-out under the CBA, but Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests his camp negotiated one into his deal.
Urshela was an above-average everyday player for the Twins back in 2022. He hasn’t had the same level of success since Minnesota traded him to the Angels at the end of that season. Urshela suffered a pelvic fracture in ’23 and has been a light-hitting utility player over the past two years. He returned to the Twins on an offseason minor league contract but hit only .208 with one extra-base knock (a double) in 24 at-bats.
Chafin, a 35-year-old southpaw, pitched six innings of two-run ball. He struck out five while walking three. Statcast had Chafin’s average fastball in the 86 mph range, four ticks below last year’s regular season mark. It’s common for pitchers to work with diminished velocity early in camp as they build arm strength, but it’s hardly a surprise the Twins opted not to carry him in the Opening Day bullpen. Lefties Taylor Rogers, Kody Funderburk and Anthony Banda are all likely to begin the year in Derek Shelton’s relief corps.
White Sox Release Four Players
2:27pm: Sims triggered an opt-out in his minor league contract and was granted his release, MLBTR has learned.
1:22pm: The White Sox have trimmed four more from their spring roster, per the team. Chicago announced that left-hander Ryan Borucki, first baseman/outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr., and right-handers Austin Voth and Lucas Sims have all been released. All four had signed minor league deals with spring invites. All are now free agents who can sign with any club.
Borucki, 32 later this month, has pitched in each of the past eight major league seasons. He sports a career 4.28 ERA with a below-average 19.7% strikeout rate, an 8.9% walk rate that’s narrowly north of average, and a strong 48.3% ground-ball rate. He notched a middling 4.63 ERA in 35 innings between the Pirates and Blue Jays in 2025 but has been outstanding with the White Sox this spring, firing six shutout innings with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio.
Wade, 32, has had a big spring himself. He’s taken 49 plate appearances and slashed .289/.429/.605 with three homers, two steals, nine walks and 10 strikeouts. He’s appeared in each of the past seven big league campaigns, mostly with the Giants, and is a lifetime .236/.341/.390 hitter in the majors. His most recent work was well shy of his career marks, however; in 282 plate appearances between San Francisco and Anaheim last year, he posted a dreadful .167/.271/.254 batting line (52 wRC+) with a career-worst 24% strikeout rate. Wade grades out below average at first base (his primary position) and in the outfield corners, and he’s never hit left-handed pitching. He could latch on with a club seeking a lefty-swinging corner bat — ideally one looking for help at first base.
The 33-year-old Voth has more than five years of MLB service but spent the 2025 season in Japan pitching for the Chiba Lotte Marines. He totaled 125 innings with a 3.96 ERA, sub-par strikeout numbers and strong command. In 360 1/3 MLB frames, the former Nats farmhand carries a 4.70 earned run average. Voth is a fly-ball pitcher with average strikeout and walk rates overall in his big league tenure. He only pitched two official innings for the Sox this spring, allowing a run with two strikeouts and no walks.
Sims, 31, looked like a potential late-inning weapon earlier in his career with the Reds, but injuries have continually set him back. He has more than six years of MLB service but only 318 1/3 innings pitched due to frequent IL trips. In that time, he’s posted a 4.86 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate. Sims tossed five shutout innings and fanned seven while walking three this spring. He spent 2025 with the Nationals and was torched for 19 runs in 12 1/3 innings due to staggering command troubles: 19 walks and seven hit batters. His command was better in camp with the South Siders, but he’ll head back to the market and look to latch on with another club seeking bullpen depth.
Marlins Name Janson Junk Fifth Starter, Option Braxton Garrett
The Marlins announced Friday that left-hander Braxton Garrett has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Manager Clayton McCullough confirmed to the team’s beat that righty Janson Junk will open the season as Miami’s fifth starter (via Kevin Barral of Fish On First).
Junk, 30, was always going to make the club’s roster, given last year’s solid showing and his lack of minor league options. The question was whether it’d be in the rotation or in a swing capacity. He pitched 110 innings with a 4.17 ERA, 17.2% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate and 40.6% grounder rate in 21 appearances last year (16 starts, five relief outings). That strikeout rate is well below average, but Junk’s walk rate was elite — the lowest among the 127 MLB pitchers who tossed at least 100 frames last year.
This spring, Junk allowed five runs in five official innings but punched out 26% of his opponents against a solid walk rate. Putting him in the rotation affords the Marlins more flexibility with regard to their bullpen composition and also gives Garrett some additional time to round back into form after missing the 2025 season due to injury.
Garrett, 28, was the No. 7 overall pick by the Marlins back in 2016. He never ranked as a top prospect and had done little to make good on that lofty draft status until a breakout showing in 2022-23. Garrett combined for 47 starts (247 2/3 innings) with a 3.63 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate across those two seasons, all but solidifying a long-term rotation spot for himself — or so it seemed.
In 2024, Garrett was limited to just seven starts, during which he struggled badly (5.35 ERA). A shoulder impingement and a flexor strain necessitated separate trips to the injured list that season, and his hopes for a 2025 rebound were dashed when he required UCL surgery last spring. Garrett didn’t pitch at all last year and has been built up judiciously thus far. He’s only pitched four official innings in Grapefruit League games, though he’s gotten side work on the back fields.
This is Garrett’s final minor league option year. He’s earning $1.53MM in his second trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. As long as he spends even four days on the active roster this year (which seems like a given), he’ll be under club control through the 2028 season.
With Garrett opening the year in Jacksonville, Miami will begin the season with Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Chris Paddack, Max Meyer and Junk in the rotation. Between Garrett’s eventual return and the likely MLB debuts for top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling, there could be a fair bit of turnover on that staff this year. If Miami isn’t in contention this summer, both Alcantara and Paddack will stand as natural trade chips if they’re performing well.
Chris Taylor Opts Out Of Angels Deal
Veteran infielder/outfielder Chris Taylor was in camp with the Angels on a minor league deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Taylor has opted out of his deal and has been informed that he will not make the club. He’ll be a free agent whenever he is officially released. He was one of several veterans who could opt out of minor league deals this week.
Taylor, 35, spent many years with the Dodgers as the league’s top super utility guy. From 2017 to 2023, he hit .256/.336/.444 while stealing 76 bases and playing every position outside of first base and the battery. But he hit just .202/.298/.300 in 2024 and was worse in 2025, getting released. He ended up with the Angels but finished the season with a combined .186/.256/.301 line.
He returned to the Angels this offseason but had to settle for a minor league deal. He had a good showing in camp, putting up a .231/.388/.410 line in 49 plate appearances, but it appears the Angels are putting more stock in his larger sample of regular season work over the past two years.
The Halos have had an open battle for their second base job this spring and the decisions appear to be coming into focus. Christian Moore was optioned a few days ago. Vaughn Grissom has a left hand injury and may start the season on the injured list.
With Taylor now out, that seemingly leaves Adam Frazier to get the job. He has hit .310/.429/.414 this spring and his left-handed bat would help to balance a lineup that otherwise skews to the right. Oswald Peraza has had a nice spring and seemingly earned a job on the bench. Switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario could also get a roster spot if Grissom does indeed hit the IL.
If Frazier and Candelario both make the team, they would need spots on the 40-man roster. One spot can easily be opened by placing Anthony Rendon on the 60-day IL, since he’s not expected to play this year. Robert Stephenson could be another 60-day IL candidate since he may have damage in the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow.
Taylor will head to the open market and to see what opportunities await him. He won’t be helped by his performance in 2024 and 2025 but his defensive versatility could help him fit with many clubs and his bat looked a bit better in camp just now, for whatever that’s worth.
Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- News is starting to pick up and we're a little behind schedule to finish the Offseason Review Series before Thursday, so I'll have to keep this one around an hour
- Let's get it going
Save harry the K’s
- Justin Crawford hasn’t exactly hit the cover off the ball this spring. What are the chances we see more Marsh in CF and Kemp/someone else in left if that continues?
Anthony Franco
- I assume Crawford's got at least two months as an everyday player before the Phillies go there. Marsh is a little stretched in center, they don't have any great alternatives in left, and Crawford doesn't get much out of going back to Triple-A
- Can argue they should've been more aggressive in shoring up the outfield depth but they weren't, and it some point, they do need to give Crawford to work through things at the MLB level
Gavin
- Preller has to trade for a starter right? Or is content riding the elite bullpen til Musgrove and Canning are ready?
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Nationals Option Dylan Crews
The Nationals announced that outfielder Dylan Crews has been optioned to Triple-A Rochester. That seems to set them up to have an Opening Day outfield mix consisting of James Wood, Jacob Young and Daylen Lile, perhaps with Joey Wiemer and/or Christian Franklin on the bench.
Crews, now 24, was once one of the top prospects in the league. The Nats took him with the second overall pick in the 2023 draft. He shot through the minors and was up in the big leagues by August of 2024, barely a year after being drafted. At that time, he was considered one of the five to ten best prospects in the whole league.
The shine has come off a bit since then as he hasn’t shown success at the major league level yet. He missed about three months of the 2025 season due to an oblique strain. To this point, he has 454 big league plate appearances with a .211/.282/.352 line. His defense has been good and he has already swiped 29 bags but the Nats clearly expected more offensively. Crews had a monster .380/.498/.689 line for Louisiana State University and then hit .275/.351/.455 in the minors before his 2024 call-up.
Despite his lack of major league success, it was expected that he would get some runway in 2026. The Nats are rebuilding and don’t plan to contend soon, as evidenced by their offseason deals of MacKenzie Gore and Jose A. Ferrer. But Crews put up an awful .103/.206/.103 line in spring training this year, striking out in 11 of his 34 plate appearances, a 32.4% clip.
It’s possible the demotion is about playing time, as Crews would ideally be getting regular reps to get back on track after his injury-marred 2025. At the big league level, Wood is one of the best players on the club and will certainly be out there. Young doesn’t hit much but is an elite defensive center fielder. Lile debuted last year and was rough on defense but hit .299/.347/.498.
Wiemer is a good fit as a fourth outfielder since he’s a strong defender and his right-handed bat could help him form a platoon with the lefty-swinging Lile. Franklin hasn’t yet made his major league debut but he’s considered a well-rounded player who is decent at just about everything, so he could slot into the mix in various ways if he makes the team, either as a defensive replacement, pinch hitter or pinch runner. Both Wiemer and Franklin are optionable, so it’s possible one of them ends up getting sent down in the coming days but the Nats also might roster five outfielders.
Jamming Crews into that mix would have perhaps meant taking a bit of playing time away from everyone, so the Nats have decided it best to let Crews rediscover himself at the Triple-A level. He will join Robert Hassell III in that regard. Hassell is also a former first round pick who has struggled at the major league level. He was optioned to the minors earlier this week.
The move could have implications for Crews, depending on how much time he ultimately spends down on the farm. He currently has one year and 35 days of service time. If he stayed up in the majors, he would be under club control through the 2030 season. If he spends about two months or more on optional assignment, he wouldn’t get to the two-year mark in 2026, therefore pushing his path to free agency by a year. His path to arbitration could also be impacted.
Those will be concerns to be worked out in the future. For now, the Nats and Crews need to find a way for him to reach his potential and establish himself as a major leaguer. As mentioned, the Nats don’t really hope to be good in 2026 but their future chances will improve if young players like Crews can take steps forward.
Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke, Imagn Images
Twins Option Zebby Matthews, Finalize Rotation Plans
The Twins announced Friday that they’ve optioned right-hander Zebby Matthews to Triple-A St. Paul. They didn’t formally say it, but that effectively sets Minnesota’s rotation heading into the season, barring a late injury or trade.
Minnesota did, however, formally name Joe Ryan the Opening Day starter today. That was a foregone conclusion after Pablo López was lost for the season due to UCL surgery early in camp. Right-handers Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson were more or less locks entering spring training. Ober had a rough stretch last summer while trying to pitch through a hip injury but has been a steady third/fourth starter in Minnesota for several seasons otherwise. Woods Richardson has been up and down between Minneapolis and St. Paul over the past two seasons but had a strong finish in ’25 and is out of minor league options.
The rest of the rotation looked less certain following López’s injury. Matthews and fellow righties David Festa, Taj Bradley and Mick Abel were vying for the final two spots. All four were ranked as top-100 prospects prior to their major league debuts, but none has fully solidified himself in the majors yet. Festa went down early with a shoulder injury that isn’t expected to necessitate a long-term absence but will send him to the injured list to begin the season. Matthews, Bradley and Abel were in a three-man competition for the final two rotation spots. With Matthews now optioned, it’ll be Bradley and Abel rounding out the staff.
Bradley came over from the Rays in exchange for Griffin Jax just minutes before the trade deadline last summer. He’s had some success at times in the majors but lacked consistency. However, he’s celebrating his 25th birthday today, so he’s plenty young and still has four seasons of club control remaining. Bradley has had a good spring showing. His 4.50 ERA in 14 frames is unremarkable, but he’s punched out a huge 32.2% of opponents against a solid 8.5% walk rate. His fastball velocity is up nearly a mile per hour this spring, sitting at an average of 96.9 mph, and he’s sporting an above-average 12.5% swinging-strike rate.
Abel, 24, is another deadline pickup for Minnesota. He came to the Twins from the Phillies in last July’s Jhoan Duran swap. Abel is a former first-round pick who for years ranked as a top-100 prospect. He was leapfrogged in the Phillies’ system by Andrew Painter, and a shaky 2024 season in the minors caused Abel to fall off of national prospect rankings. He bounced back in a big way in Triple-A last year, posting a pristine 2.20 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate in 98 1/3 innings. The 6’5″ righty matched that production through his first four MLB starts with the Phillies but struggled thereafter, allowing nine runs in his next 4 2/3 innings before being shipped to Minnesota.
Abel has looked dominant this spring. In 18 innings, he’s held opponents to a flat 2.00 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against just a 4.5% walk rate and kept 53.8% of batted balls against him on the ground. In this spring’s small sample, Abel has upped the usage of his slider and changeup while scaling back how frequently he uses his two-seamer. The results, clearly, have been quite strong.
Matthews, 25, has pitched in parts of two seasons with the Twins already. He’s logged very good strikeout and walk rates (24.7%, 6.6% respectively) but been far too susceptible to home runs. He’s a pronounced fly-ball pitcher who has seen nearly 15% of his fly-balls leave the yard; that’s led to an average of 1.77 homers per nine innings pitched.
Matthews sat better than 96 mph with his heater last season, pairing it with a plus slider and plus command. He’s yet to find an average third offering, as his changeup has been hit hard. If he can dial in a third pitch to help keep lefties off balance, he could yet emerge as a mid-rotation starter. Righties are flummoxed by that slider, but lefty hitters have turned in a huge .316/.372/.572 slash against him in the majors. Obviously, that won’t cut it.
The Twins will send Matthews to Triple-A to continue working on rounding out his arsenal. It’s possible that he and/or Festa could eventually emerge as bullpen options, particularly if Bradley and Abel can carry their spring performances into the regular season. The Twins have a number of interesting upper-level arms on the cusp of MLB readiness beyond that pair, including Kendry Rojas, Andrew Morris, Dasan Hill, Marco Raya (who’s moving to the bullpen full-time this season) and top prospect Connor Prielipp.
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