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The Opener: Imai, Orioles, Red Sox

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As the calendar flips to December here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Imai heading stateside:

Right-hander Tatsuya Imai is coming over from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB this winter, and in doing so he’s made himself one of the top free agent starters available. The righty will be just 28 years old next season and is coming off a banner year in Japan, where he pitched to a 1.92 ERA across 163 2/3 innings of work. His combination of youth and a high-octane fastball should make him enticing to the majority of clubs hunting for rotation help this winter, and (as reported by Francys Romero of BeisbolFR) Imai is expected to come to the United States in the first few days of December to meet with MLB teams. An early-December deal can’t be entirely ruled out, though many NPB players wait until closer to the end of their posting window to make a decision; Imai’s posting window began on Nov. 19 and runs through Jan. 2.

2. What’s next for the Orioles after their first splash?

The Orioles will be without Felix Bautista next year, and as a result entered the offseason with a hole at the back of their bullpen. Baltimore wasted little time filling that vacancy, inking right-hander Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28MM deal that gives Helsley an opt-out opportunity after the 2026 season. Helsley will slide into the closer role with his new club, joining righty Andrew Kittredge and lefty Keegan Akin as late-inning options. Helsley and outfielder Taylor Ward are both notable additions to the Orioles’ roster, but their biggest need remains unaddressed. The club floundered last year without Corbin Burnes leading the rotation, and at least one front-end arm to pair with Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers seems necessary if the O’s hope to get back into contention in 2026.

3. Red Sox facing a tight budget?

The Red Sox have been connected to a lot of free agency’s top bats after strengthening the rotation with their Sonny Gray acquisition. Reports have indicated that the club is not only in on the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman but also interested in signing multiple well-regarded free agent bats. Despite all of that buzz, however, financial realities could make that difficult. Reporting over the weekend suggests that the team might not be willing to spend much farther than the first luxury tax threshold this winter, which would leave them with a roughly similar payroll to 2025. Barring a change of heart from ownership, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will either need to use the trade market to add some lower-cost bats and/or shed some salary via trade. Boston is currently about $21MM shy of the first tax threshold, per RosterResource.

KBO’s Samsung Lions Sign Matt Manning

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The Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization announced the signing of right-hander Matt Manning to a one-year, $1MM contract.  Manning was outrighted off the Phillies roster in September, and he elected minor league free agency earlier this month.

Manning was once one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, and he was a fixture of top-100 prospect rankings in the years following his selection as the ninth overall pick of the 2016 draft.  He posted solid numbers on his way up the Tigers’ minor league ladder until his MLB debut in June 2021, but the strikeout ability Manning displayed in the minors didn’t translate to his work in the Show.  Over 254 innings and 50 starts with Detroit from 2021-24, Manning posted a 4.43 ERA, 7.8% walk rate, and only a 16.4% strikeout rate.

Some injuries hampered Manning during this time, but the Tigers eventually decided to move on entirely from the right-hander.  Manning spent the entire 2025 season in the minors, first with Triple-A Toledo and then with the Phillies’ Double-A affiliate in Reading after the Tigers designated Manning for assignment and traded him to Philadelphia just before the trade deadline.

Manning turns 28 in January, so between his relative youth and his past pedigree as a top prospect, it is a little surprising that he didn’t draw interest from any MLB teams on a minor league contract.  The fact that Manning inked his deal with the Lions relatively early in the offseason, however, perhaps suggests that he wasn’t interested in waiting perhaps several more weeks to land a non-guaranteed deal, and then going through the grind of another season in the minor leagues.  Manning is also now out of minor league options, so even if he did make a big league roster, he might’ve been facing more DFAs and outrights, plus potential moves to other teams on waiver claims or trades.

Rather than ride this carousel, Manning will get a $1MM payday from the Lions.  The KBO League is generally a hitter-friendly league, yet the lesser level of competition might help Manning get his career on track.  There have been several instances of pitchers who have used stints in the KBO to rework their pitching repertoire, post some strong numbers, and get back onto the radar of big league teams, so chances are we haven’t seen the last of Manning in a Major League organization.

NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines Sign Jose Castillo

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The Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball announced the signing of left-hander Jose Castillo.  The Mets chose to non-tender Castillo earlier this month, passing on the southpaw’s projected $1.7MM arbitration salary.

The move overseas to Japan may seem like small potatoes given the transactional maelstrom that was Castillo’s 2025 season.  He saw big league action for four different teams (the Diamondbacks, Mets, Mariners, and Orioles) while compiling a 3.94 ERA over 32 innings.  Beginning the season on a minor league deal with Arizona, Castillo was designated for assignment in May and then traded to the Mets, and he subsequently bounced around on a series of waiver claims.  Castillo actually had three separate stints with the Mets, with the latest coming in early November when he was claimed off Baltimore’s waiver wire.

Castillo is out of minor league options, making him a necessary DFA candidate whenever a team wants to move him off its active roster.  He would probably be facing another round of designations, outright assignments, and waiver wire visits if he’d signed a minor league deal with a Major League team this winter, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that Castillo has opted for the relative security (and a guaranteed salary) of this deal with the Marines.

Though Castillo has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons, that resume consists of his 32 innings in 2025, 38 1/3 innings with the Padres in his 2018 rookie season, and just two innings spread over a single game with the Padres in each of the 2019, 2022, and 2023 campaigns.  Multiple injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) shelved Castillo for almost the entirety of the 2019-21 seasons, and he pitched primarily in the minors with the Padres, Marlins, and Diamondbacks from 2022-24.

While a small sample size of big league work, Castillo’s career 4.11 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate are all respectable for a pitcher with such a journeyman resume.  He also has a 4.21 ERA over 130 1/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.  Control has been an issue for Castillo, but he has always been able to rack up strikeouts and generate grounders.  Castillo doesn’t turn 30 until January, so there’s still plenty of time for the left-hander to explore a future move back to North American baseball depending on how things work out during his Marines tenure.

Blue Jays Notes: Helsley, Berrios, Management Extensions

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The Blue Jays had “at least preliminary interest” in Ryan Helsley before the right-hander signed with the Orioles, The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon reports.  Toronto has shown past interest (both last offseason and at the trade deadline) in trading for Helsley when he was still a member of the Cardinals, so it tracks that the Jays would’ve again considered Helsley in free agency.  As it turned out, the Blue Jays will now have to deal with Helsley pitching for a division rival while Toronto’s own search for bullpen help continues.

Such pitchers as Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Phil Maton, Edwin Diaz, and Pete Fairbanks have been linked to the Jays thus far, and the first three of those names have already come off the board.  Given how Ross Atkins’ front office is known for casting a wide berth in its free agent explorations, it’s probably safe to guess that the Jays have called about most or all of the top relievers on the market, ranging from set-up men to proven closers like Diaz.  Atkins said after the season that the team was open to the possibility of moving Jeff Hoffman into a set-up role, thus opening the door for Toronto to seek out another top saves candidate.

Of course, the Jays’ biggest winter moves to date have come in the rotation, not the bullpen.  Shane Bieber made the first move himself when he decided against opting out of the final year of his contract, and then the Jays made the priciest free agent signing in franchise history by inking Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM contract.  Within less than a month after the end of the World Series, the Blue Jays rotation suddenly went from a question mark to all but settled.

The projected starting five looks like Cease, Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios, with Eric Lauer on hand as a swingman.  Adam Macko, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis are further depth options.  It’s a deeper group with a higher ceiling than the starting pitching mix that got the Jays to the World Series, though it’s possible another starter could still be added.

To make room in the rotation for a higher-caliber arm, the Jays could consider trading Berrios.  Bannon (in a piece for the Athletic) and the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm each floated the concept, as Berrios ended up being the odd man out of the starting mix even before a bout of elbow inflammation kept him sidelined for the Blue Jays’ entire playoff run.  The Jays planned to transition Berrios to bullpen work prior to the postseason, and Berrios made all of one relief appearance before hitting the injured list.

Trading Berrios would be tricky for a few reasons — his eight-team no-trade clause, the three years and $66MM remaining on his contract, and the opt-out clause Berrios holds after the 2026 season.  There’s also the fact that Berrios was pretty unspectacular in 2025, posting a 4.17 ERA and a set of below-average Statcast numbers across 166 innings.  Any Berrios suitor would be counting on a bounce-back, naturally, but primarily might be interested in the veteran righty as a durable source of innings.

Berrios’ ability to eat innings makes him valuable to the Jays as well, considering how their pitchers added more mileage during an extended postseason run.  Moving Berrios would open up some payroll space for Toronto as well, though in limited fashion.  It’s pretty unlikely that the Jays would find a team willing to take the entirety of Berrios’ $66MM salary, plus spending capacity might not really be a concern for a Blue Jays club that already shown it is willing to stretch its payroll even further in search of a championship.

Turning to other topics from Chisholm’s mailbag piece, he believes the Blue Jays might’ve already finalized extensions for Atkins, team president Mark Shapiro, and manager John Schneider if the club hadn’t still been playing on November 1.  Regardless, it just seems like a matter of time before the trio are all officially retained.  Shapiro’s contract is already technically up, and Atkins and Schneider’s deals are up after the 2026 season (the Jays already exercised their club option on Schneider for 2026).

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Mark P

  • It’s Sunday night and time to chat! We’ll launch things after the queue starts to fill up…

Anthony

  • Tucker and Imai for the Yanks?

Mark P

  • I’d be surprised to see New York spend to quite that level in bringing in two top-level guys.  Bellinger and Imai seem like a more reasonable duo, if the Yankees make two big purchases

Rhett lowder

  • Am I eligible for rookie of the year? I am under the innings limit but have over a year of service time on the 60 day IL.

Mark P

  • Lowder is no longer considered a rookie

AstroFAN

  • Could Tyler Mahle go to Houston?

Mark P

  • Seems like a reasonable fit.  Bringing in another guy with a recent injury history might not be entirely ideal for an Astros team that wants to cover innings, but Mahle on a one-year works with the budget

Chase

  • How can the Phillies be both prioritizing re-signing Schwarber  AND be far apart on years and money? He’s seen this organization wildly overpay Trea Turner and Aaron Nola. Why shouldn’t he get the same? Pay the man.

Mark P

  • Todd Zolecki’s report from the other day didn’t say anything about Schwarber and the Phillies being “far apart” in anything, necessarily.  He said that they’re “not close to a deal,’ which would relate to some kind of a gap in negotiations, or maybe just a timing issue.
  • Consider this scenario…..Dave Dombrowski says “Kyle, you know how much we want you back.  Take your time looking around the market, and all we ask is that you give us a chance to match any offer.”

Read more

Giants Focusing More On “Modestly Priced” Pitchers

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Giants team chairman Greg Johnson and general manager Zack Minasian have each downplayed the idea that the team will be pursuing long-term (and therefore more pricier) pitching signings this offseason, due to both the risk associated with such contracts and the number of lengthy and expensive contracts already on San Francisco’s books.  As such, it probably isn’t a big surprise that “a lot of their market pitching inquiries have been for more modestly priced arms,” according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.

The context of Olney’s report comes in the context of speculation that the Giants could be a suitor for Tatsuya Imai, as it would seem the Giants might not be willing to meet Imai’s asking price.  There is a widespread belief that Imai’s eventual contract will run deep into the nine figures — MLB Trade Rumors projects a six-year, $150MM deal for Imai, who ranked seventh on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

If the Giants were going to make a longer-term commitment to a pitcher, Imai might fit the bill given his relative youth (he doesn’t turn 28 until May) and naturally his excellent track record in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Imai’s recent interview on the Hodo Station show also caught the attention of Giants fans, as Imai suggested that while he’d enjoy playing with the Dodgers, “winning against a team like that and becoming a world champion would be the most valuable thing in my life.  If anything, I’d rather take them down.”

Still, Imai’s ability to carry his success over to Major League Baseball isn’t seen as a sure thing amongst evaluators.  If San Francisco was going to splurge on a top-end starter, spending big on a pitcher who’s more proven against MLB hitters would seem to carry more appeal to a Giants organization that wants to minimize risk in its rotation investments (that is, if the Giants decided to spend big on any pitcher at all).

While there’s no such thing as having too much frontline pitching, the Giants are already ahead of a lot of teams by having a clearcut ace in Logan Webb.  Robbie Ray also pitched well in 2025 after missing most of the 2023-24 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.  This duo gives the Giants two starters they can count on to take the ball in a playoff series, plus homegrown starter Landen Roupp also pitched well in his first extended taste of big league action in 2025.  However, there isn’t any proven depth beyond this group, making the rotation a priority for Buster Posey’s front office this winter.

If the Giants are primarily looking at second- or third-tier options, there’s still plenty of talent to be had amongst veteran arms who might be limited to shorter-term contracts based on their age alone.  Signing Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15MM deal last offseason worked out for the team, so re-signing Verlander or perhaps seeking out this winter’s version of a “Verlander contract” with another pitcher is more the Giants’ speed.  Inking at least one veteran to eat innings and stabilize at least one rotation spot would allow San Francisco’s younger pitchers some space to compete amongst themselves for a fifth starter’s role, and ideally one could emerge as Roupp did last year.

Though there’s some sound reasoning behind the Giants’ approach to starting pitching, the strategy probably isn’t going to sit well with Bay Area fans wondering why the team isn’t willing to spend at a higher level.  The Giants have exceeded the luxury tax threshold just once in the last eight seasons, as after paying a minimal tax bill in 2024, the club ducked back under the line again in 2025.  Johnson’s non-committal stance towards paying the tax or even exceeding $200MM in payroll space also doesn’t lend itself to the idea that San Francisco is planning anything truly substantial on the spending front this winter, and certainly not on the pitching side.

Kodai Senga Prefers To Remain With Mets In 2026

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Mets right-hander Kodai Senga has indicated to the club that he would prefer to remain in Queens for next season rather than be traded elsewhere this winter, according to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds, however, that the Mets might still trade him this offseason. Senga’s contract includes a ten-team no-trade clause that gives him limited say over where he can be traded.

The news is noteworthy given the fact that Senga, 33 in January, is a known trade candidate who the Mets have indicated they’re open to offers on and has drawn interest from rival organizations. Sammon notes that some teams don’t view this year’s crop of free agent starters particularly highly, and that lukewarm interest in those arms has led some teams to view Senga as a buy-low candidate worth considering. The right-hander’s appeal is somewhat obvious; he has a career 3.00 ERA and 3.82 FIP across three seasons in this majors, and just this past season offered the Mets with a 3.02 ERA across 22 starts.

That’s solid production for a starter as it is, and the fact that Senga will make just $28MM over the next two years (with an affordable club option for the 2028 season) figures to make Senga all the more attractive given that last year’s free agent market saw one-year rolls of the dice on veterans with health or age question marks like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton cost $15MM. Opportunities to add a potential front-of-the-rotation talent on that affordable of a deal are few and far between, and that’s sure to draw interest from plenty of suitors.

That shouldn’t be taken to mean there aren’t complicating factors at play, of course. After all, the Mets themselves are in need of top-of-the-rotation impact in their rotation. They wouldn’t consider dealing Senga at this juncture if there wasn’t some cause for concern. Talented and productive as the right-hander clearly is, Senga has been unreliable during his time in Queens. He’s made just 52 starts at the big league level across three seasons after he missed nearly the entire 2024 campaign due to shoulder and calf issues. 2025 saw him battle a hamstring strain that caused him to miss a month of playing time, and he posted a 5.90 ERA in nine starts following his return to the mound before he agreed to be optioned to Triple-A for the remainder of the 2025 season in early September.

That Senga was pulled from the rotation entirely when the Mets were fighting for their playoff lives suggests a lack of confidence in the righty from Mets personnel, and president of baseball operations David Stearns himself called it “foolish” to count on Senga to make a full slate of starts headed into 2025. There’s an argument to be made that Senga’s issues regarding injuries and inconsistencies are more likely to get worse than improve as he heads into his mid-30s, and a Mets rotation that’s deep in viable options but lacking in reliable impact talent might prefer to use that spot in the rotation on a more reliable free agent or trade acquisition.

The Mets have already shown this offseason they aren’t afraid to shake up the team’s status quo, shipping out long time Met Brandon Nimmo in a deal that brought back Marcus Semien. Other Mets stalwarts like Jeff McNeil are known to be on the trading block as well, and after the club’s disappointing 2025 season it seems as though the Mets clubhouse will look very different next year. Whether or not that includes Senga could depend on the specifics of his no-trade list. If the Mets are truly motivated to move on from Senga, they’d surely be able to do so to one of the league’s 20 teams that Senga can’t block a deal to.

Things might not be that simple, however, as Senga’s upside and value on the market would surely make them hesitant to deal him for an underwhelming return. The teams on Senga’s no-trade list aren’t presently known, so it’s entirely possible that the clubs most aggressively interested in his services are also ones he can block a deal to. While today’s news of Senga’s preference to stay in New York certainly shouldn’t lead anyone to rule out the possibility of him being dealt, it’s undeniable that it creates at least a possible obstacle to the Mets finding a deal they’re happy with.

If Senga does stay in Queens, that shouldn’t preclude the club from bringing in another top-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Nolan McLean, right-hander Clay Holmes, southpaw Sean Manaea, and lefty David Peterson figure to round out the Mets’ rotation alongside Senga as things stand. McLean has options remaining but figures to be a lock for the rotation given his results in 2025 and prospect pedigree. Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes all cannot be optioned to the minors but have experience pitching out of the bullpen, which could create some flexibility if necessary. Trading one of those three could be a plausible solution as well, though none would seem likely to bring back as strong of a return as Senga and Manaea in particular could be difficult to move given his hefty salary and difficult 2025 campaign.

Rays Interested In Zach Eflin, Adrian Houser

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The Rays are known to be perusing the market for shorter-term starting pitching help as they look to fill out their 2026 rotation, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that a pair of familiar names are being discussed by the team as potential targets: right-handers Zach Eflin and Adrian Houser.

Eflin, 32 in April, signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays prior to the 2023 season. He made 50 starts for the Rays before being traded to the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline. In that time, he posted a 3.72 ERA and a 3.26 FIP with a 23.5% strikeout rate against a 3.2% walk rate. His 2023 season in particular was very strong, as he finished 6th in AL Cy Young award voting with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 3.4% walk rate with a 3.50 ERA and 3.01 FIP across 177 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate fell to 19.6% last year, however, and this past season the bottom completely fell out from Eflin’s performance. He was limited to just 14 starts for the Orioles by injuries, and when he was healthy enough to take the mound he struggled to a 5.93 ERA with a 5.64 FIP with a 16.2% strikeout rate.

Houser, 33 in February, was acquired by the Rays from the White Sox at this year’s trade deadline. He made ten starts with a 4.79 ERA and a 4.38 FIP, though his overall season was much stronger than that. In 125 innings between Chicago and Tampa, Houser posted a 3.31 ERA and a 3.81 FIP across 21 starts this past year despite a 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. Despite those strong overall results, Houser’s weak ratios combine with a long history as a bottom of the rotation arm or fifth starter (99 ERA+ from 2019-24) to make the 2025 season look like an outlier in his career, and while the Rays are an organization known for maximizing their pitchers his ten starts in Tampa didn’t inspire much confidence.

Both pitchers have flashed mid-rotation ability in the past but head into free agency with significant question marks that could leave them limited to relatively affordable short-term deals. It shouldn’t be a shock that this would be appealing to the Rays, as the club perennially faces a payroll crunch. Topkin suggests the club’s payroll is likely to clock in around $85MM for 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club for a payroll of around $94MM, but that would include a $15.5MM salary for embattled shortstop Wander Franco, who hasn’t played since 2023 and was convicted of sexual abuse earlier this year. He’s been on the restricted list since July of 2024 and has not collected an MLB paycheck ever since. Without Franco’s money on the books, the team’s payroll falls to $78MM, meaning they have around $7MM in budget space for additions.

That should be enough to sign a low-end rotation arm like Eflin or Houser in free agency, but with other needs to fill (such as a hole at catcher and a desire to improve over Taylor Walls at shortstop) Topkin suggests the club could also turn to the trade market. That could be an attractive avenue to acquire cost-controlled talent while also shedding salary if the club parts with a player like Brandon Lowe, who is due $11.5MM in 2026 and has been considered a trade candidate for years. Topkin speculatively suggests a reunion with Twins right-hander Joe Ryan could be one avenue the Rays could pursue on the trade market. The 2025 All-Star’s projected $5.8MM salary in 2026 is certainly affordable, but the link between the Rays and Ryan seems to be largely speculative on Topkin’s part. Other possible trade candidates who would come on affordable salaries this year include Edward Cabrera of the Marlins and MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals.

Nationals Hire Desmond McGowan To Lead Amateur Scouting

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The Nationals are hiring Desmond McGowan to lead their amateur scouting department, according to a report from Joe Doyle of Over-Slot Baseball. McGowan’s title will be director of amateur acquisitions.

McGowan got his start in baseball with the Yankees as an analytics associate in 2019 before jumping to the Mets as an analyst in 2021. He rose through the ranks across five years in the Mets front office and was promoted to manager of data science earlier this year. McGowan’s work with the club was primarily focused on the draft, and he’ll remain in a similar role with the Nationals as he takes over his new club’s amateur scouting apparatus.

The hire continues an offseason that has been focused on overhauling the Nationals’ front office and coaching staffs after Paul Toboni and Blake Butera were brought in to replace Mike Rizzo as head of baseball operations and Dave Martinez as manager, respectively. Butera has made a number of additions to the coaching staff in the weeks since his hire, while Toboni has retained interim GM Mike DeBartolo in an assistant GM role while adding former Pirates director of amateur scouting Justin Horwitz to the organization as an assistant GM as well.

The Nationals’ focus on bringing in front office talent with a history in scouting continues with the hiring of McGowan. Toboni himself, of course, began his career with the Red Sox as an area scout before ascending the ranks to become an assistant GM during his time with Boston. That his front office hires to this point have reflected that experience is hardly a surprise, particularly given the fact that the Nationals remain entrenched in a lengthy rebuild that began back in 2021. While James Wood has emerged as a core piece of the future and some other players have shown promise, even controllable pieces like MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams remain heavily speculated upon as trade candidates with no end to the club’s rebuilding phase in sight.

That makes strong scouting, drafting, and development decisions over the next few years a must as the club looks to dig itself out of the hole it’s currently in. Bringing in minds like Toboni, Horwitz, and now McGowan should assist in that effort to beef up the scouting credentials of the Nationals’ front office, and the hope is surely to build out a robust farm system around top prospects Eli Willits, Travis Sykora, and Jarlin Susana, the latter two of whom could theoretically make their MLB debuts at some point during the 2026 campaign. That’s particularly important given that previous high-end draft picks by the Nationals under Rizzo haven’t always worked out in recent years. Dylan Crews was selected second overall in 2023 and certainly has a great deal of potential, but he’s yet to prove himself as even a league average hitter in the majors. Elijah Green, who the club selected fifth overall in 2022, is an even bigger question mark as he’s struggled to hit even in the lower minors and has not yet reached the Double-A level.

Latest On Red Sox’s Payroll Flexibility

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In the aftermath of the Sonny Gray trade, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made it clear that the team’s plan was to focus on upgrading an offense that saw Alex Bregman opt out of his contract and head back to free agency this winter (not to mention traded away Rafael Devers back in June). There’s been some talk of the club even signing multiple star bats to help fill out the lineup, pairing a reunion with Bregman with the addition of someone like Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber.

That could prove to be easier said than done, however, as a report from MassLive’s Sean McAdam suggests the Red Sox might not have that sort of room in the budget. According to McAdam, the Red Sox are willing to pass the luxury tax threshold as they did in 2025. With that being said, however, McAdam reports that doing so would leave the club “absorbing a moderate financial loss,” and that Boston is hesitant to spend beyond that level and incur bigger deficits.

Some fans will surely balk at the idea that one of the sport’s most valuable brands and franchises is operating at a loss, especially following an offseason where the team made an offer north of $700MM to Juan Soto.  It’s easy to see why Soto specifically would be a player the team was willing to make an exception for based on his youth and incredible talent, but it’s also worth remembering that the books of the league and individual franchises are generally closed and not publicly available. That means claims of losses from most franchises and ownership groups cannot be independently verified.

Of course, whether fans take Boston’s claims about profitability at face value or not won’t change their short-term payroll plans. The Red Sox spent just under $245MM in 2025 for luxury tax purposes, according to RosterResource. Their projected luxury tax payroll for 2026 stands at $223MM. That means they have just $22MM left in payroll flexibility if they plan to spend at the same level they did last year. Of course, it should be noted that there could be at least some wiggle room within McAdam’s reporting. While he makes clear that the Red Sox won’t be floating a $300MM payroll on level with the Yankees, the second level of the luxury tax sits at $264MM this year. If the Red Sox simply want to stay under that second threshold, they’d have as much as $40MM in spending capacity this winter.

There’s other ways payroll could come down. The Red Sox would surely love to find a taker on Masataka Yoshida or Jordan Hicks. The pair will make a combined $30.5MM in 2026 for luxury tax purposes, and while rival clubs surely won’t be interested in absorbing all of that salary (at least without sending their own bad contract back in exchange), it’s not impossible that Breslow could trade one or both players with cash included in order to save a bit of money. Jarren Duran has been in trade rumors for years, and dealing him would offload the $7.7MM salary he’s owed for 2026.

Bregman, Alonso, and Schwarber are all predicted by MLBTR for an annual salary between $26MM and $28MM. Even if the Red Sox were willing to push right up against the second threshold of the luxury tax, adding two of those bats would be impossible without shedding significant salary elsewhere. If the Red Sox are committed to remaining around the $245MM mark in 2026, then even bringing in one of those bats is likely to require moving some salary. With that said, all indications point to the club being willing to take a big swing on at least one of the offseason’s top hitters.

Some lower level bats Boston has been connected to like Kazuma Okamoto ($16MM), J.T. Realmuto ($15MM), and Jorge Polanco ($14MM) are predicted for significant more affordable annual salaries, however. Adding one star player such as Bregman alongside a player like Polanco or Realmuto from the next tier down in free agency might be doable within the team’s apparent financial limitations, though even that would require some salary to be moved out if the club is going to avoid the second luxury tax threshold. Those pieces wouldn’t have the guaranteed impact of someone like Schwarber, but would still represent a significant on-paper improvement over internal options like Kristian Campbell and Connor Wong.

Perhaps there’s a trade candidate or two who could make sense for the Red Sox, allowing them to add a bat for a relatively small financial outlay and potentially move out salary in a trade. Brendan Donovan ($5.4MM), Ryan Jeffers ($6.6MM), and Alec Bohm ($10.3MM) are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for affordable arbitration salaries this year and placed in the top half of MLBTR’s Top 40 Trade Candidates list for the current offseason. Bringing one of those players into the mix would add a complementary bat to the lineup while still leaving ample room in the budget for a big swing at someone like Bregman or Alonso.

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