Lefty reliever Dylan Lee has won his arbitration hearing over the Braves, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll earn the $2.2MM salary sought by his representatives at PSI Sports Management as opposed to the team’s $2MM filing figure.
More to come.
Feb. 10: The Rays have officially announced the deal with Martinez. Right-hander Manuel Rodríguez was moved to the 60-day IL to open up a spot on the 40-man. The Martinez contract includes a $9MM base salary for 2026 with a $20MM mutual option for 2027, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The mutual option comes with a $4MM buyout.
Feb. 9: The Rays are reportedly in agreement with Nick Martinez on a one-year, $13MM contract. The signing, which is pending a physical, includes a mutual option for the 2027 season. Those are essentially never exercised, so that provision exists solely to delay the payment of a portion of the guarantee to the end of the season in the form of an option buyout. Tampa Bay will need to open a 40-man roster spot once the signing is finalized. Martinez is a client of the Boras Corporation.
Martinez is the second free agent swingman whom the Rays have added this offseason. They signed lefty Steven Matz to a two-year, $15MM deal at the Winter Meetings. Matz was already expected to win a job at the back of the rotation. Tampa Bay subsequently traded Shane Baz to the Orioles, leaving another rotation spot available.
The 35-year-old Martinez enters camp as the favorite to work as Kevin Cash’s fifth starter. He lands behind Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Matz on the depth chart. That could push Ian Seymour and Joe Boyle back to Triple-A Durham while keeping the out-of-options Yoendrys Gómez in a long relief role for which he’s better suited. They’ll need way more than five starters to navigate the season given the injury histories for Rasmussen and McClanahan — the latter of whom hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since August 2023 and will be on some kind of innings count.
Matz and Martinez each have ample experience working out of the bullpen. Either could transition to relief if Seymour or top prospect Brody Hopkins force their way into the rotation. The versatility has been a huge selling point for Martinez, in particular. He can start, work multiple innings out of the bullpen, or pitch short relief in high-leverage situations as needed.
Martinez has found a strong second act in his 30s after spending four seasons in Japan. This will be his fifth season since he returned to MLB on a deal with the Padres over the 2021-22 offseason. He posted a sub-4.00 earned run average in each of the first three years, working mostly out of the bullpen. Martinez spent the first two seasons in San Diego before signing a two-year free agent contract with Cincinnati. He had the best year of his career in 2024, firing 142 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball while starting 16 of 42 appearances.
The righty triggered an opt-out but returned to Cincinnati after the Reds surprisingly extended a $21.05MM qualifying offer. That’s probably a move the Reds wished they had back. Martinez did pick up a career-high 165 2/3 innings while starting 26 of 40 games, but his production was that of a back-end starter. He allowed 4.45 earned runs per nine while striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, his lowest strikeout rate since he returned from Japan.
Although Martinez has never had huge swing-and-miss stuff, his strikeout rates between 2022-24 hovered around league average. He had a more difficult time getting hitters to chase pitches off the plate last year. His stuff wasn’t that much different than it had been, however, and Martinez’s biggest strength has been his ability to command a legitimate six-pitch mix. He uses each of his cutter, four-seam, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider at least 10% of the time. He’s able to attack the strike zone with any of those offerings, but the changeup is the only plus pitch in his arsenal.
The diverse repertoire has allowed Martinez to avoid any kind of platoon splits. He hasn’t been great at turning lineups over a third time but should be a capable five-inning starter. Martinez gets a decent number of weak fly-balls, an approach that might play more favorably at Tropicana Field than at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He did a solid job avoiding the longball overall, but his two worst months last season (June and August) were driven largely by home run spikes.
RosterResource estimated the Rays payroll around $79MM before the signing. It’s not yet clear how much will be paid in salary versus the option buyout, but the $13MM guarantee will very likely make Martinez their highest-paid player in 2026. It’ll push their payroll estimate into the low-$90MM range after they opened the ’25 season just north of $79MM.
Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported Martinez and the Rays had an agreement. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Times reported that it was for one year with a mutual option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the $13MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.
Right-hander Reese Olson is done for the year after undergoing a right shoulder labral repair, the team announced. Olson has been placed on the 60-day IL, along with fellow right-hander Jackson Jobe. The moves will open up 40-man roster spots for recent free agent additions Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
Olson’s 2025 season ended in late July due to a right shoulder strain. There had been rumblings that he might not be ready for Opening Day, but there hadn’t been any indication that he’d be sidelined for an extended time. His surgery went down on Feb. 2, per the team announcement. Jobe’s move to the 60-day IL was anticipated. He had Tommy John surgery in June and is set to miss most, if not all, of the upcoming season.
The Valdez and Verlander signings make more sense following the Olson revelation. Detroit will now have Valdez and Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation, followed in some order by Verlander, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize. Troy Melton will serve as a depth option. Jobe could join the mix later in the season.
The 26-year-old Olson has been a reliable member of the Detroit rotation since his debut in 2023. He’s compiled a 3.60 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers across 56 big-league appearances. Injuries have been the main limiting factor. Olson missed the majority of the second half in 2024 with a shoulder strain. He missed time in the middle of last season with finger inflammation. Olson made it back for just four games after the finger issue before going down with the most recent shoulder strain.
Detroit acquired Olson from the Brewers straight up for Daniel Norris at the 2021 trade deadline. He finished that season at Double-A in the Tigers’ system. Olson spiked a 33.1% strikeout rate in a repeat of the level in 2022. He earned a promotion to Triple-A in 2023, where he continued to miss bat at a well-above-average clip. Olson’s 6.38 ERA with Toledo didn’t suggest a callup was imminent, though his FIP was more than a run lower. He made 18 starts with Detroit that season, including a dominant September where he allowed five earned runs across five appearances.
Olson hasn’t been able to replicate the strikeout upside he showed in the minor leagues, despite a pair of plus swing-and-miss pitches. The righty’s changeup and slider both had whiff rates above 42% in 2024 and 2025. Olson has posted an identical 12.7% swinging-strike rate in each of the past two seasons. The arsenal just hasn’t translated to punchouts. Olson has been right around league average in strikeout rate at the MLB level. He hasn’t reached a strikeout per inning in any season with the Tigers.
Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images
Feb. 10: Detroit has officially announced the Valdez signing. He’ll earn a base salary of $17.5MM in 2026, $37.5MM 2027, and $35MM in 2028. Valdez can opt out after 2027. The deal also includes a $40MM mutual option for 2029 with a $5MM buyout. Valdez’ $20MM signing bonus is entirely deferred, with payments not starting until 2030.
Feb. 4: The Tigers land the offseason’s top remaining free agent, reportedly agreeing to a three-year deal with Framber Valdez that guarantees $115MM. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the star left-hander to opt out after the second season. It contains a $20MM signing bonus and an unspecified amount of deferred money. Valdez is represented by Octagon.
Valdez reunites with A.J. Hinch and gives the Tigers a lethal 1-2 pairing at the top of the rotation. He’ll slot behind Tarik Skubal atop a starting staff that suddenly looks like one of the best in the American League. They’ll be followed by Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize if everyone gets through camp healthy. That’d push KBO signee Drew Anderson into a swing role, while second-year righty Troy Melton can either pitch out of the bullpen or wait in Triple-A for a rotation spot to open.
The Skubal-Valdez pairing may only be together for one season, as the two-time defending Cy Young winner is a year away from what should be a record-setting free agent contract. Skubal and the club went to a hearing this morning that’ll determine whether he makes $19MM or $32MM for his final year under club control. The arbitrators will not reveal their decision until tomorrow, and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News confirms that neither the Tigers nor Skubal’s camp are aware yet of which way they’ll rule. The Valdez pickup is an independent decision.
It’s the kind of win-now strike for which much of the Detroit fanbase has waited all offseason. The Tigers had a fairly conservative trade deadline, and their biggest moves before tonight had been retaining Flaherty on a $20MM player option and Gleyber Torres via the $22.025MM qualifying offer. They also brought back setup man Kyle Finnegan on a two-year deal and added Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen on one-year contracts. They’d done a decent job building depth but without pushing the chips in for an impact player in what could be Skubal’s final season in the Motor City.
Valdez brings the ceiling that Detroit’s other acquisitions had lacked. He’s a two-time All-Star who has finished top 10 in Cy Young balloting in three of the past four seasons. Valdez worked his way from an unheralded amateur signee to the big leagues in 2018. He spent his first two seasons working in a swing role for an Astros club managed by Hinch. Valdez moved into the rotation permanently during the shortened 2020 campaign and has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the last six years.
The southpaw has posted a sub-4.00 earned run average in each season since he became a full-time starter. He has been exceptionally durable as well, only twice landing on the injured list in his MLB career. He fractured his left ring finger when he was hit by a comebacker in Spring Training 2021. He was back from that injury by the end of May. His only other IL stint was a two-week absence for elbow inflammation early in ’24. He returned without issue and wound up making 29 starts between the regular season and playoffs.
Valdez is tied for 14th in starts and ranks fifth with 973 innings dating back to 2020. He has a cumulative 3.23 ERA in that time. That includes sub-3.00 showings in 2022 and ’24. Valdez was among the most consistent top-of-the-rotation starters in MLB — at least until the second half of his walk year. He posted an earned run average between 2.82 and 3.45 in each season between 2021-24. He topped 175 innings in each of the latter three years.
For the first half of last season, Valdez was on a similar pace. He took a 2.75 ERA over 121 frames into the All-Star Break. Valdez came out of the Break with two more quality starts and was sitting on a 2.62 ERA (a top 10 mark among qualifiers) as August arrived. He picked a tough time for arguably the worst couple months of his career. Valdez was blitzed for a 6.05 ERA with a dramatically reduced 17.7% strikeout rate over his final 10 starts. His sinker velocity dipped slightly, and opponents teed off on it in August and September. There’s no indication that he was tipping pitches, and it seems like the issue was mostly poor execution.
Valdez also found himself at the center of controversy during a start against the Yankees on September 2. Two pitches after giving up a grand slam to Trent Grisham, he hit catcher César Salazar in the chest with a 93 MPH sinker on a cross-up. Salazar was clearly expecting a breaking ball and didn’t have time to react to the fastball. Valdez didn’t check on the catcher in the moment. Salazar was not hurt and finished the game without issue.
The pitcher denied that the cross-up was intentional. Salazar did his best to publicly downplay the incident, saying he pressed the wrong button on his PitchCom. Even if that’s the case, the pitcher’s seeming lack of concern on the mound made for poor optics. Valdez said postgame that he had apologized to his battery mate.
Did that have any impact on his market value? It’s impossible to know from the outside, though one imagines some teams asked Valdez about the incident during the free agent process. It’s worth noting that a Detroit team managed by his former skipper is the one that eventually signed him, so it seems they don’t have any concerns about his makeup or clubhouse presence.
The late-season dip in production and Valdez’s age were probably bigger factors in his extended free agent stay. He finished the year with a 3.66 ERA across 192 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage were in line with his career marks. It’s a solid strikeout and walk profile, but his game has always been built more around ground-balls. He has a career 62% grounder rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 58.6% clip last season, the third-highest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings.
It’s not the whiff-heavy approach that someone like Dylan Cease brought to the table this offseason, though Valdez’s statistical profile isn’t that dissimilar from that of Max Fried. They’re both ground-ball specialists who sit in the mid-90s with a sinker that leads the profile. Fried commanded an eight-year, $218MM contract last winter. The biggest difference is that came in advance of his age-31 season, while Valdez turned 32 in November.
Although a one-year age gap might not seem like much, teams have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to free agent pitchers at 32. Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell are the only pitchers that age or older to command five-plus years since 2011. They’d all had at least one Cy Young on their résumés by that point. Valdez’s inconsistent finish essentially took a six-year contract off the table. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. That he remained unsigned into February made it increasingly apparent that a five-year contract wasn’t going to be out there.
On the surface, Valdez seems to have done fairly well despite signing a week before the beginning of Spring Training. The deal’s true value can’t really be known until the extent of the deferrals are reported, however. The sticker price comes with a massive $38.33MM average annual value that’d rank 10th all time. The net present value will be reduced to at least some extent by the deferred money.
Regardless of the contract breakdown, this easily goes down as Scott Harris’ boldest free agent move in his four years running baseball operations. It’s Detroit’s first nine-figure investment since the ill-fated Javier Baez deal, which was signed under former GM Al Avila. The Harris front office hadn’t gone beyond $35MM on a free agent. That was their two-year contract to re-sign Flaherty almost exactly a year ago. There are some parallels with Valdez in terms of waiting out the market to get a high-end starter for short term, but this is obviously a much more significant investment.
The Tigers ran a $188MM competitive balance tax payroll last season. They’re going to top that this year, though the extent isn’t clear. RosterResource currently estimates their CBT number around $237MM while penciling in the midpoint of the arbitration filing figures as a placeholder for Skubal. The arbitrators don’t have that luxury, meaning that CBT estimate will change by $6.5MM in one direction or another. It’s also using the base $38.33MM annual value for Valdez, which overshoots the actual number to an unknown extent until the deferral breakdown comes out.
Detroit also forfeits draft capital because Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros. They’re a revenue sharing recipient so it’s the lowest penalty, their third-highest pick in the 2026 draft. That’s currently slated to be their Competitive Balance Round B selection, which is 69th overall. The Tigers could look to trade that pick — Competitive Balance selections are the only ones that can be traded — rather than losing it as the compensatory pick. They’d then forfeit their third-round selection (#98 overall), but another team might be more willing to give up something of value for the higher draft choice and accompanying slot value that makes it worthwhile for Detroit to lose the third-rounder.
Houston never had any interest in meeting Valdez’s asking price. As luxury tax payors, they receive a compensation pick after the fourth round. That’ll land around 133rd overall. Houston traded for Mike Burrows and signed Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss to backfill the rotation depth, even if they’re unlikely to replace the ceiling that Valdez brought.
The Blue Jays, Orioles and Pirates were recently linked to Valdez. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Twins surprisingly jumped in the mix as well. He was probably a unique target for a Toronto club that already runs six deep in the rotation. Baltimore could pivot to a mid-tier starter like Zac Gallen (the last unsigned player who declined a QO), Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. A mid-rotation arm is also possible for Pittsburgh. At the very least, the Bucs figure to add a fifth starter for a few million dollars. Minnesota has a solid rotation but reportedly kicked the tires on a Freddy Peralta trade as well, seemingly staying on the periphery of the market for a potential impact arm.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the three-year, $115MM agreement with the opt-out after year two. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $20MM bonus.
Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images.
Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Santander is scheduled for left labral surgery on Wednesday, according to multiple reports. He’s set to miss the next five to six months of action. Santander had a setback in January as he prepared for the upcoming campaign. Toronto hopes to get him back before the end of the season.
Left shoulder inflammation cost Santander two months during his first year with the Blue Jays. A back injury bumped him off the ALCS roster and ended his season. After signing a five-year, $92.5MM deal, Santander suited up in just 59 games for Toronto, including the playoffs.
Santander struggled mightily at the plate when available. He slashed .175/.271/.294 with six home runs across 221 plate appearances. The switch-hitter was coming off a career campaign with the Orioles, slugging 44 home runs and taking home Silver Slugger honors. He remained on the free agent market deep into January before ultimately securing a five-year commitment from the Blue Jays.
The 31-year-old Santander split his time between outfield and DH last season. He made 22 appearances on the grass and 30 at designated hitter. Toronto also threw him out there for an inning at first base. Santander has graded out as an average to subpar defender in recent years. Outs Above Average had him at -2 in 2025, while Defensive Runs Saved gave him a neutral grade.
General manager Ross Atkins told reporters the club is “not significantly” involved in the market for an outfielder following the Santander injury. As the roster currently stands, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes are penciled in at the corner outfield spots against right-handed pitching. Davis Schneider will be a factor against lefties, with Myles Straw serving as a late-inning defensive replacement. George Springer is set to hold down DH duties.
Mitch Bannon of The Athletic was among those to report Santander’s injury and timeline. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported Atkins’ comments about an outfield addition.
Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images
Right-handers Grant Holman and Mitch Spence have been designated for assignment, the Athletics announced. The moves will clear space on the 40-man roster for righties Scott Barlow and Aaron Civale. The Barlow and Civale signings are now official.
More to come…
Right-hander Kyle Wright is joining the Cubs on a minor league deal, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The agreement includes an invitation to MLB Spring Training. Wright last appeared in the big leagues with the Braves in 2023. He’s a client of CAA Sports.
More to come…
Feb. 10: The White Sox have officially announced the Fedde signing. It’s a one-year, $1.5MM deal. Left-hander Ky Bush was placed on the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man spot for Fedde. Bush had Tommy John surgery in February 2025.
Feb. 9: The White Sox are bringing Erick Fedde back to the organization on a one-year deal, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The deal is pending a physical. Fedde is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Fedde returns to the organization with which he made his MLB comeback in 2024. The former first-round pick and top prospect struggled through parts of six seasons with the Nationals before signing with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos and reinventing himself. He won the KBO’s Cy Young Award equivalent (the Choi Dong-won Award) and was named KBO MVP in 2023. Fedde parlayed that into two years and $15MM with the White Sox, who plugged him right into the rotation.
The early portion of Fedde’s 2024 season could scarcely have gone better. He was Chicago’s best starter and looked every bit like a quality big league arm. In 121 2/3 frames with the South Siders, he turned in a 3.11 earned run average, a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 6.8% walk rate and a 44.7% ground-ball rate. The contract looked like a clear bargain, and the rebuilding White Sox naturally drew plenty of interest in the right-hander ahead of the 2024 trade deadline. Fedde ultimately went to the Cardinals as part of a three-team deal that netted the White Sox current third baseman Miguel Vargas and a pair of prospects while sending utilityman Tommy Edman from St. Louis to the Dodgers.
Fedde pitched decently with the Cardinals down the stretch in ’24. His rate stats slipped a bit, and he gave up a fair bit more hard contact, but his overall 3.72 ERA (4.05 FIP, 4.22 SIERA) in 55 2/3 frames was plenty respectable.
The 2025 season was a nightmare, however. Fedde’s strikeout rate cratered to 14% as his walk rate jumped north of 10%. He was tagged for a 5.22 ERA in 101 2/3 innings (20 starts) before being cut loose by the Cardinals. Subsequent deals with the Braves and Brewers didn’t bring about much more success. By the time the season was over, Fedde had a 5.49 ERA in 141 frames. He hadn’t lost any velocity off his heater, but Fedde’s command was clearly nowhere near as sharp as it was in 2024 — particularly in his early run with the White Sox.
Now back with Chicago, Fedde seems like he’ll have a chance to step into the rotation once again. The fifth spot behind Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Anthony Kay seems up for grabs, with Fedde and fellow free agent pickup Sean Newcomb standing as the presumptive front-runners after signing major league deals this winter. Whichever of the two doesn’t grab the spot could open a swingman role, although there’s enough inexperience in the rotation — to say nothing for the inherent potential for injury faced by all teams — that it’s possible both Fedde and Newcomb will be starting games early in the season.
3:59 pm: The Braves have officially announced the deal. As expected, Heim will take the vacated roster spot opened up after Spencer Schwellenbach hit the 60-day IL. Heim’s deal is for $1.5MM, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
9:11 am: Veteran catcher Jonah Heim is at Braves camp this morning, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The team hasn’t formally announced a deal, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the two parties are in agreement on a one-year, major league contract. Heim is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Heim, 31 in June, was a key factor in the Rangers’ World Series victory during the 2023 season, breaking out with a .258/.317/.438 batting line (107 wRC+) and swatting 18 home runs. He coupled that better-than-average offense — particularly relative to his position — with top-of-the-scale defensive grades; Heim nabbed 29.3% of the runners who attempted to swipe a base against him (well above that season’s average 20.6%), was solid in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and was the fourth-best catcher in the sport in terms of pitch framing, per Statcast.
Given that the league-average catcher tends to be about 10-12% worse than the league-average hitter at the plate, having a plus defender behind the dish with 15- to 20-homer pop and better-than-average rate stats is immensely valuable. Heim rated as a plus defender in both 2021 and 2022, and his offensive improvements in ’23 looked to have thrust himself into the conversation for one of the most valuable all-around catchers in the game.
Instead, all aspects of his skill set have taken a step back in the two seasons since. He’s drawn league-average framing grades since 2023 and seen his throwing drop off considerably, with just a 13.7% caught-stealing rate in 2024-25. His pop time behind the plate has crept north of two seconds, and his average velocity on throws to second base dipped from 81.1 mph in ’23 to 79.5 mph in ’25.
Heim’s offensive decline has been even more glaring. He’s taken 924 plate appearances since that standout 2023 campaign but turned in an awful .217/.269/.334 batting line that checks in about 29% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. His strikeout rate hasn’t changed much at all, but he’s lost a couple percentage points off his walk rate and seen declines in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He’s also seen his line-drive rate fall a couple percentage points while his grounder rate and infield fly rate have crept north.
None of the changes in those key offensive rate stats are particularly large on their own, but a couple ticks in the wrong direction for that many rate stats has a significant cumulative effect. That’s especially true for a player who was only a bit above average with the bat in the first place. The Rangers, looking to scale back payroll, non-tendered Heim in November after failing to find a trade partner willing to take him on at his expected arbitration price. (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $6MM salary for the 2026 season.)
Heim now joins a Braves club looking for a short-term backup to reigning NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin. Baldwin and veteran Sean Murphy looked locked in as Atlanta’s catching tandem last summer — until Murphy required surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. A timetable for his return remains a bit murky. Bowman suggests that Murphy is hoping to be ready at some point in May, though it’s not clear whether that’s early in the month or closer to Memorial Day weekend. The team figures to provide one in the near future with pitchers and catchers reporting to camp this week (today, in the Braves’ case).
Baldwin and Murphy are the only catchers on Atlanta’s 40-man roster at the moment. With Murphy expected to be sidelined to begin the season, backup options for Baldwin have included non-roster invitees Chadwick Tromp, Sandy Leon and Jair Camargo. Heim adds a higher-upside option and, after signing a big league deal, is the immediate front-runner for the backup job to Baldwin.
Heim has more than five years of major league service time, so once Murphy is ready for activation, Heim cannot be optioned without his consent. Those five years of MLB service also are enough that he can reject an outright assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett and retain any remaining guaranteed money on his contract.
Astros pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training tomorrow. The team’s roster remains jumbled as camp is soon to get underway. They’re still heavily right-handed and have an arguable surplus of infielders with an unimposing outfield mix.
Trading an infielder, especially Isaac Paredes, has been the most speculated avenue to balancing the roster. General manager Dana Brown has repeatedly said the Astros aren’t motivated to do so. Brown has pointed to the impact that Paredes had on Houston’s lineup before he suffered a significant hamstring strain midway through his first season with the club. The Astros are only a year removed from acquiring him as an instrumental piece in their return for Kyle Tucker, feeling that his pull-heavy approach from the right side would play well with the short left field at Houston’s Daikin Park. That proved to be the case, as Paredes hit 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 slash in 102 games.
Even as team personnel have struck a public tone that they’re happy with their infield depth, it seems they’ve been more on board with the trade route behind the scenes. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported last week that the Astros were discussing Paredes with upwards of five teams, including the Pirates and Red Sox. Rome wrote in a column at The Athletic this morning that they’ve intensified efforts to find a match on the trade front. Houston continues to pursue a left-handed hitting outfielder as part of any potential return, Rome adds.
A handful of recent moves could make that less likely. They reportedly kicked around a three-team framework that would have involved acquiring Brendan Donovan from St. Louis. That didn’t come to fruition and he’s now a Mariner. The Red Sox have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa and traded for Caleb Durbin from the Brewers, which seemingly fills out their infield. Pittsburgh signed Marcell Ozuna to a $12MM free agent contract to add a right-handed power bat. They’re still looking to upgrade over Jared Triolo at third base, but it’s unclear if they’re interested in accommodating Paredes’ $9.35MM salary.
Speculatively, the Brewers may be the best on-paper fit after the Durbin trade. Milwaukee isn’t likely to part with Sal Frelick, but center fielder Garrett Mitchell or corner bat Tyler Black are left-handed hitters who could play the outfield in Houston. The Twins have an uncertain corner infield mix and some expendable lefty outfield bats (e.g. Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach). The Guardians have a heavily left-handed first base and outfield mix and desperately need a right-handed power bat. They could offer someone like George Valera if they’re willing to reinvest any of the money they saved by restructuring José Ramírez’s contract into the 2026 payroll.
The Padres are looking for another corner infielder and could certainly use Paredes at first base, though they don’t have any lefty-hitting outfielders of significance to offer. (Jackson Merrill obviously isn’t getting traded.) That’d also be a drawback in talks with Pittsburgh even if they’re willing to take on the money. The Astros aren’t taking the Bryan Reynolds contract. Pittsburgh probably wouldn’t view Paredes as enough of an upgrade over Spencer Horwitz to relinquish five years of control on Horwitz even if the Astros felt he could play a reasonable left field. There’s always the possibility of looping in a third team to try to balance value, but the direct trade scenarios involving Paredes are tougher to align than they were a week or two ago.
Trading Paredes would create some payroll flexibility for a Houston team that is right up against a $244MM luxury tax line that ownership seemingly doesn’t want to cross. If they don’t find a trade partner (or anyone willing to pick up a notable portion of the Christian Walker contract in a salary dump), he’d project as a multi-positional infielder behind Walker, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Yordan Alvarez will get the majority of the at-bats at designated hitter.
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