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The Opener: Cease Signs, Rox Set With Schaeffer, Rendon Retirement

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Happy Thanksgiving to MLBTR’s readers in the United States, and for our non-American readers….uh, happy Thursday?  Here are three things we’re keeping an eye on besides the turkey in the oven….

1. Blue Jays land Dylan Cease:

The reigning AL champs made the priciest free agent signing in team history yesterday, as reports indicated that Toronto inked Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM contract.  The contract will be finalized once Cease passes a physical, and while it’s just a matter of time before we get the official announcement, it’s possible things could be delayed a few days simply due to the Thanksgiving weekend.  As it stands, the Jays seem to have already finished up their rotation shopping pretty early in the offseason, between the Cease signing and Shane Bieber’s surprising decision to exercise his player option to remain in Toronto through the 2026 campaign.  With the starting pitching mix potentially settled already, the Blue Jays can now turn their attention to re-signing Bo Bichette or adding another big bat to their lineup.  For the rest of the league, Cease’s decision removes a top-tier arm from the board, so pitching-needy teams will have to turn their attention to other starters in free agency or on the trade market.

2. Rockies re-introduce Warren Schaeffer:

After operating as Colorado’s interim manager for most of the 2025 season, Warren Schaeffer was named the club’s new full-time skipper.  There hadn’t been much news about the Rockies’ managerial search because, in essence, one didn’t happen, as president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta explained at a press conference yesterday.  DePodesta told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that he informally looked into some other candidates but “ultimately, I didn’t feel the need to interview anybody else,” as “I would say, even a week in….it became pretty clear to me that [Schaeffer] was a good direction to go.”  This won’t exactly calm the fears of Rockies worried that the team is still going to be operating in an insular fashion, even though DePodestra is an entirely fresh face as the new head of the front office.  Still, Schaeffer received praise for how he handled stepping into a rough situation last season, and his 36-86 record is obviously far more a reflection on Colorado’s dismal roster than on Schaeffer’s work in his first season as a big league manager.

3. The Anthony Rendon era nears an end in Anaheim:

Anthony Rendon’s MLB career may be officially over after 12 seasons, as the oft-injured third baseman is reportedly discussing a buyout plan with the Angels heading into the final year of his contract.  Presumably the $38MM owed to Rendon in 2026 would instead be paid out in deferred fashion over several years, giving the Angels some more short-term spending ability.  Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal signed in December 2019 will go down as a complete bust, as Rendon ended up playing in only 257 games over the lift of the contract due to a wide variety of injuries, including a hip surgery that cost him the entire 2025 season.

Blue Jays, Dylan Cease Agree To Seven-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

The Best Fits For Bo Bichette

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Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. Steve Adams examined which clubs should be in the running for #1 free agent Kyle Tucker earlier this week.

We now move to the consensus #2 hitter in the class, Bo Bichette. The two-time All-Star is coming off a .311/.357/.483 showing with 18 homers across 628 regular season plate appearances. A sprained left knee ended his regular season and cost him the first few rounds of the playoffs. Bichette made it back for the World Series. Despite clearly being limited and having gone a month without the benefit of live at-bats, he came back to hit .348 in the Fall Classic. His towering three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 would have gone down as one of the biggest moments in Toronto sports history if not for the Dodgers' ninth-inning comeback.

Bichette is one of the younger free agents in the class. He'll turn 28 a few weeks before Opening Day. He's a middle infielder who has been a well above-average hitter in all but one season of his career. The lone exception (2024) was a year in which he had three stints on the injured list. He has otherwise posted an OPS above .800 in every season and owns a lifetime .294/.337/.469 slash line. He has twice led the American League in hits and would have done so again this year if not for the knee injury.

The lingering question is how long Bichette can stick at shortstop. He's a below-average runner with middling arm strength who rates as one of the weakest defensive shortstops in MLB. The glove was an issue even before the knee sprain, which could increase some teams' concerns about his lateral quickness even if it's expected to heal without surgery.

The Blue Jays used him at second base in the World Series to limit his defensive workload. Most or all 30 clubs would project him as a second baseman by the end of a long-term deal. There are some for whom he'd only fit as a second baseman already. Bichette hasn't tipped his hand publicly about whether he'd be open to a position change, but that'd create more opportunities that would drum up interest.

Bichette rejected a qualifying offer. A signing team would give up draft compensation and/or international signing bonus space to add him. That's not much of a factor for a free agent of this caliber. MLBTR predicted Bichette to command an eight-year, $208MM contract -- joining Tucker as the only players for whom we're predicting $200MM+ this winter.

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Angels, Anthony Rendon Discussing Contract Buyout With Rendon Expected To Retire

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The Angels and third baseman Anthony Rendon are discussing a buyout plan with Rendon expected to retire, reports Alden González of ESPN. Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal still has one year and $38MM remaining.

Rendon’s deal has been a punchline for a long time now and will certainly go down as one of the biggest busts of this era, perhaps even of all time. The Angels have gotten almost no return on their massive investment. Rendon was still a very good player in the first year of the pact, but that happened to be the 202o season, which was shortened to just 60 games on account of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Rendon has been largely injured. Even when he has been able to take the field, he hasn’t been terribly useful.

When the deal was signed, Rendon was coming off an excellent stretch with the Nationals. From 2013 to 2019, he slashed .290/.369/.490 for a wRC+ of 128. He dabbled at second base but mostly provided strong defense at third. He had a well-timed career year in 2019, though that year would later become infamous for its juiced balls. His 34 home runs were a career high. He slashed .319/.412/.598 for a wRC+ of 155. He hit .328/.413/.590 in the postseason, helping the Nats win their first ever World Series title.

It was then that the Rendon headed to California. As mentioned, he was still quite good in his first season as an Angel. He played in 52 of the club’s 60 games, hitting nine home runs. His 16.4% walk rate was a few ticks higher than his 13.4% strikeout rate. He hit .286/.418/.497 for a 152 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with 2.5 wins above replacement in that truncated campaign.

But in the five seasons since, mounting injuries have prevented from doing much of anything. From 2021 to 2024, he finished each season with between 43 and 58 appearances. He had stints on the injured list due to a left groin strain, a left knee contusion, a left hamstring strain, a right hip impingement, right wrist inflammation, right wrist surgery, another left groin strain, a left wrist contusion, a left shin contusion, a left hip impingement, a left hamstring strain, low back inflammation and a left oblique strain. He hit .231/.329/.336 for an 89 wRC+ over those seasons. In February of 2025, he underwent left hip surgery and eventually missed the entire season.

A lengthy injury history may be out of a player’s control but Rendon has been followed by questions about his attitude and commitment. Back in 2014, he said he doesn’t watch baseball because it’s “too long and boring,” per Jason Butt of The Washington Post. In 2022, he got a five-game suspension for getting involved in a brawl with the Mariners, even though he was on the IL recovering from wrist surgery at the time. Early in the 2023 season, he received another suspension for an altercation with an Athletics fan, which was caught on video. Rendon grabbed the fan’s shirt, cursed at him and swiped at him. In January of 2024, on the Jack Vita Show, he said the baseball season was too long and needed to be shortened.

Shortly thereafter, as rounded up by Sam Blum of The Athletic, Rendon was asked about these concerns. “It’s never been a top priority for me,” Rendon said of baseball. “This is a job. I do this to make a living. My faith, my family come first before this job.” He seemed to take umbrage with reporters for continuing to question him on the subject. “I have answered your question,” he said. “So why do keep picking at it?”

The combination of Rendon’s contract, his injury absences and his reputation have made him a frequent target for criticism from fans. The money owed to him has also been an obvious obstacle for the Angels, who have had a decent chunk of their payroll tied up in one rarely-available player. Despite having Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Rendon on the roster for many years, the Angels haven’t been a serious contender in a long time.

If some kind of buyout arrangement can be worked out, it could work for both sides. Rendon could walk away from the game after years of injuries, including a 2025 lost to hip surgery, as opposed to trying to get back into game shape. The Angels could open up some more payroll flexibility for the 2026 season.

As it currently stands, RosterResource has them slated for a $166MM payroll, with Rendon taking up almost a quarter of that. They are looking to bolster the pitching staff and their lineup ahead of next season. Speculatively speaking, a plan could perhaps be worked out which defers Rendon’s 2026 salary so he gets paid in the long run but the Angels have more near-term ability to spend on other players. Time will tell how the chips fall on that.

Assuming Rendon doesn’t play another major league game, he will retire with 5,022 plate appearances over 1,173 games. He notched 1,218 hits, including 295 doubles, 16 triples and 158 home runs. He scored 683 runs, drove in 671 and stole 55 bases. FanGraphs credits him with 33.8 wins above replacement and Baseball Reference 34.2. MLBTR salutes him on his accomplishments and wishes him the best in his non-baseball life.

Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Tommy Gilligan, Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images

Cardinals Have Had Preliminary Extension Talks With Manager Oli Marmol

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The Cardinals and manager Oli Marmol have opened early extension conversations, writes Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It seems likely that some kind of multi-year agreement will be reached this offseason. Marmol is headed into the final guaranteed year of his contract. Most teams prefer to have their skipper and top front office personnel signed beyond the upcoming season.

This is the first year atop baseball operations for Chaim Bloom. He immediately confirmed that Marmol would be back for his fifth season at the helm. Bloom said in late September that the sides had yet to begin extension talks but noted those were likely to take place over the offseason.

The Cardinals have gone 325-323 in the regular season over the first four seasons of Marmol’s tenure. They won 93 games and an NL Central crown in 2022, his first year at the helm. Philadelphia swept them in the Wild Card Series and they haven’t returned to the playoffs since then. The Cardinals had a dismal 71-91 showing in 2023 and played right around .500 ball over the past two seasons.

Marmol’s managerial record is unlikely to improve in the short term. The Cardinals are cutting payroll and more fully committing to a rebuild after doing very little last offseason. They’ve already sent Sonny Gray to Boston. Nolan Arenado has probably played his final game in a St. Louis uniform as well. Brendan Donovan is one of the prizes of the offseason trade market. Willson Contreras, JoJo Romero, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson have all come up in trade rumors. The Cardinals aren’t going to move everyone from that group, but Gray was the first of what should be multiple dominoes to fall.

Bloom and ownership clearly believe the 39-year-old Marmol remains the right choice to oversee the team’s next phase. Their main focus for at least the next season or two is on player development. They’ll need someone to join Masyn Winn and Iván Herrera among their core position player group, but the biggest factor is whether they can reinvigorate a pitching staff that has not missed enough bats. Only the Rockies have a lower strikeout rate over the last three years.

Ironing out an extension with Marmol would be the team’s final bit of coaching business for this offseason. Their 2026 staff is in place, as they announced the full slate of hires this afternoon. Casey Chenoweth and Kyle Driscoll join the group as assistant hitting coach and assistant pitching coach, respectively.

Chenoweth, 33, is promoted to the MLB staff after spending three seasons coaching minor league hitters in the organization. He has spent the last two seasons at Double-A Springfield, where he worked with notable prospects including JJ Wetherholt, Joshua Baez and Leonardo Bernal — the latter two of whom were added to the 40-man roster last week. The 31-year-old Driscoll is a former college relief pitcher (Rutgers) who spent the ’25 season as a minor league pitching coordinator with the Diamondbacks. He’d previously worked in the Mets’ system as a Triple-A pitching coach. This is his first job on a big league staff.

The rest of the group are holdovers from a largely unchanged 2025 staff. Bench coach Daniel Descalso, pitching coach Dusty Blake, hitting coach Brant Brown, base coaches Stubby Clapp (first) and Pop Warner (third), outfield coach Jon Jay, assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen, bullpen coach Julio Rangel, and assistant coach Jamie Pogue are all back. Former assistant pitching coach Dean Kiekhefer and game planning coach Packy Elkins will respectively work as pitching and offense strategists to bridge the gap between the analytics department and on-field staff, Goold writes.

George Altman Passes Away

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Former All-Star outfielder George Altman has passed away at age 92. The news was announced last night by Bob Kendrick, president of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.

Altman was a dual sport athlete (baseball and basketball) at Tennessee State University. He began his professional career with the Negro American League’s Kansas City Monarchs in 1955. Altman played for Hall of Fame player-manager Buck O’Neil that year. The Cubs hired O’Neil as a scout in 1956. On the legendary evaluator’s recommendation, Chicago signed the 6’4″ Altman to a minor league contract.

After his first minor league season, Altman was forced to pause his career upon being conscripted into the Army. He returned to professional baseball in 1958 and made his big league debut the following season when he started in center field on Opening Day. Altman hit .245 with 12 home runs as a rookie but would improve over the next few years.

His average ticked up to .266 in year two before a career season in 1961. Altman batted .303/.350/.560 with a personal-high 27 home runs across 573 trips to the plate. He led the National League with 12 triples and tied for 19th in the majors in homers. Altman finished 14th in MLB in average, 12th in slugging percentage, and tied for 16th in OPS (min. 500 plate appearances). He drove in 96 runs, leading a Chicago team that — despite finishing 64-90-2 on the year — had future Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Ron Santo and Billy Williams in the lineup.

Altman was named to both the midseason and postseason National League All-Star teams. (Between 1959-62, Major League Baseball played two All-Star Games annually.) He finished 14th in MVP voting. Altman had an equally impressive ’62 campaign, batting .318/.393/.511 with 22 homers and 74 RBI to earn another All-Star nod. He was one of 13 qualified hitters with a combined OPS above .900 over that two-year run. Eight of those players would eventually wind up in Cooperstown, and the group of non-Hall of Famers included star hitters Norm Cash, Rocky Colavito and Roger Maris.

Obviously, Altman didn’t maintain that star pace into his 30s. His numbers dropped off as he played through injuries after he was traded to the Cardinals over the 1962-63 offseason. Altman wound up playing parts of five more MLB seasons between the Cards, Mets, and a second stint with the Cubs.

The second half of his big league career wasn’t especially impressive, but he seemed reinvigorated by a move to Japan in 1968. Altman had a second act as a star hitter in Nippon Professional Baseball, where he hit .309 while slugging 205 homers over eight seasons. He played through age 43 and might have been an even more accomplished NPB player were it not for a colon cancer diagnosis in 1974. Altman beat the disease and lived another five decades, working as a commodities trader in Chicago before moving to the St. Louis area in retirement.

Altman finished his MLB career with a .269 average in just under 1000 games. He topped 100 homers and 400 RBI and stole 52 bases. He was among the best hitters in the game over a two-year peak and played professionally for 20 years between the Negro League, the National League, and NPB. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Caleb Boushley Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz

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The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced this week that they’ve signed former Brewers, Twins and Rangers righty Caleb Boushley to a one-year contract. He’ll be guaranteed $900K on the contract and can pick up an additional $100K via incentives.

Boushley, who turned 32 in October, has pitched in parts of three big league seasons, totaling 49 2/3 innings. He has an ugly 5.80 ERA to show for it despite generally solid rate stats. Boushley’s 21.1% strikeout rate is only about one percentage point shy of average, and his 8.1% walk rate is lower than the league average. He’s also yielded only 1.09 homers per nine innings pitched. However, Boushley has been dogged by a sky-high .367 average on balls in play, which has contributed to a 62% strand rate that’s more than 10 percentage points lower than the MLB average. Metrics like SIERA (3.95) and FIP (4.03) feel Boushley has pitched far better than his more rudimentary earned run average would suggest.

In parts of six Triple-A seasons, Boushley has totaled 512 innings with a 4.61 ERA. As in the majors, he’s displayed a lower-than-average strikeout rate but better-than-average command. Boushley has generally been a durable source of Triple-A innings. Though he spent most of the 2025 season in the Rangers’ bullpen, the lanky 6’3″, 190-pound Boushley averaged 25 starts and 130 innings per season from 2021-24, despite spending a portion of that time (2023-24) shuttling between the majors and minors.

This will be Boushley’s first work overseas and will easily be the largest guaranteed payday in what’ll be ten professional seasons. Boushley was a 33rd-round pick by the Padres out of Division-II University of Wisconsin La Crosse back in 2017. He signed for just $1,000 out of the draft. After years of middling minor league pay and shuffling back and forth between the majors and Triple-A, he’ll take home a salary that tops the MLB minimum by $120K and land a chance at the first seven-figure salary of his career (if he can max out his incentives package).

Sean Newcomb Receiving Interest As Starting Pitcher

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Free agent left-hander Sean Newcomb has gotten attention from teams both as a starter and reliever, write Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The 32-year-old began the season in the Red Sox’s rotation but moved to relief after five starts.

Newcomb is coming off his best season in at least six years. A former first-round pick who held a rotation spot with the Braves between 2017-18, Newcomb moved primarily to the bullpen in 2019. He pitched well that year but struggled with both injuries and a lack of command over the next few seasons. He combined for 98 2/3 MLB innings between 2020-24 and took a minor league contract with Boston last winter.

The Massachusetts native surprisingly nabbed the fifth starter spot out of camp. He only once completed five innings and allowed four-plus runs in three out of five outings. The Sox moved him to a long relief role when Lucas Giolito returned from a hamstring injury in late April. Newcomb was solid out of the bullpen but was nevertheless pushed off the roster. The Sox traded him to the Athletics, for whom he’d logged some time as a depth reliever in 2023-24.

Newcomb turned into an unexpectedly important bullpen piece for Mark Kotsay. He fired 51 1/3 frames of 1.75 ERA ball while working 1-2 innings at a time. Newcomb punched out a quarter of opponents against a career-best 7% walk rate. He worked in the 93-94 MPH range with both his four-seam fastball and sinker while using a low-80s curveball as his best secondary pitch. Newcomb dabbled with a cutter and changeup against right-handed batters, but the fastball/curve combination was where he found most of his success.

The 6’5″ southpaw pitched particularly well down the stretch, turning in a 0.96 ERA over 28 innings after the All-Star Break. His season ended a couple weeks early because of elbow inflammation, but there’s no indication that’ll be an issue going into next season. Durability has generally been a concern, albeit mostly with lower half injuries. Newcomb missed time with a sprained ankle in 2022 and battled knee problems over the following two seasons.

Newcomb’s strong year was enough to land a big league contract this time around. A one-year deal seems likely, though it’s not out of the question he commands a modest two-year guarantee. Sixth starters and swing types like Griffin Canning, Joe Ross, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea and Michael Lorenzen landed contracts between $4-7MM last winter. Newcomb’s former teammate Michael Soroka pulled a $9MM deal from the Nationals at the higher end of that range, though he’s five years younger and had shown more strikeout potential in the bullpen.

Poll: Will The Cubs Sign A Big Bat This Winter?

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It’s not often that the top free agent doesn’t get much attention from the team they’re departing but that might end up being the case this winter. Even amid an up-and-down season where he was dogged by injuries, Kyle Tucker was a key piece of the team that got the Cubs back into the NLDS for the first time since 2017. While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer praised Tucker and suggested he’d be in contact with the outfielder’s camp this winter, virtually all reporting on the subject suggests the Cubs aren’t going to pursue a reunion in a serious manner.

The team’s focus appears to be on pitching, at least for the time being. They’ve already signed right-hander Phil Maton to help bolster their bullpen. After bringing southpaw Shota Imanaga back on a qualifying offer, they still figure to explore the market for top-of-the-rotation pitching options. A deal for someone like Michael King, Ranger Suarez, or Tatsuya Imai would certainly make sense for a team that ran out of pitching in October due to injuries to Cade Horton and Justin Steele. A trade also can’t be ruled out, with players like Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and MacKenzie Gore all expected to be at least somewhat available this winter.

Even as the focus appears to be on the top of the rotation, however, the void Tucker figures to leave in the lineup is undeniable. The superstar delivered his fifth consecutive season worth at least 4.0 fWAR in 2025 as he slashed .266/.377/.464 with a 136 wRC+ in 136 games. That sort of production would be very difficult to replace internally, even with talented youngsters like Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara knocking on the door of the majors. Ballesteros looked the best of the bunch in his cup of coffee with the big league club last year, hitting an impressive .298/.394/.474 across 66 trips to the plate in 20 games. Strong as that production was, however, it would be unreasonable to expect a 22-year-old rookie to replicate that over a full season.

Perhaps it would be understandable to roll the dice on those internal options if the Cubs had more certainty around the rest of the diamond, but the question marks are undeniable. Carson Kelly seems unlikely to recreate his career year at the plate (115 wRC+) from 2025 headed into his age-31 campaign. Matt Shaw began to show signs of life in the second half but his 93 wRC+ on the season was subpar. Dansby Swanson (99 wRC+) delivered his second consecutive below-average offensive season last year.

One big x-factor is Pete Crow-Armstrong. The budding superstar delivered a 30-30 season in 2025 and finished 9th in NL MVP voting off the back of a brilliant campaign, but his OPS dropped more than 200 points between the first half and the second half. Counting on the 23-year-old to lead the Cubs’ offense in place of Tucker next year would be a risky gamble. Also, Hoerner, Happ and Seiya Suzuki are slated for free agency next winter. Adding a reliable bat to the lineup could go a long way to preventing a step back headed into the 2027 season while also providing reinforcements for a 2026 team that will face lots of questions without Tucker in the fold.

The question, of course, becomes the team’s budget. The Cubs have been very hesitant to spend beyond the competitive balance tax for the past several years, treating it as a soft cap on spending. RosterResource projects them for a $197MM CBT figure in 2026 as things stand. The base threshold of the tax will be $244MM next year, giving them a bit more than $45MM of wiggle room.

With needs in the bullpen and the rotation, that could dry up in a hurry. Signing someone like Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, or Kyle Schwarber wouldn’t leave a ton of room for pitching additions. Even a less expensive addition like Kazuma Okamoto or Eugenio Suarez might be challenge to make work if the team is unwilling to spend beyond the first threshold of the luxury tax.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will proceed with their offense headed into 2026? Will they hope an offensive nucleus of Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, and Michael Busch will be enough to weather the loss of Tucker? Or will they bring in an impact hitter to improve the lineup? Have your say in the poll below:

Astros Hire Ethan Katz As Assistant Pitching Coach

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The Astros finalized their 2026 coaching staff. Ethan Katz has been hired as an assistant pitching coach, which was first reported by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Houston also hired Tim Cossins as catching coach, a move that Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported last week.

The rest of Joe Espada’s staff had been previously reported. Victor Rodriguez comes over from the Padres as hitting coach, with Anthony Iapoce tabbed as his assistant. Dan Hennigan has officially been hired as director of hitting/offensive coordinator, which GM Dana Brown announced alongside the Iapoce hiring.

Josh Miller will be the team’s sole lead pitching coach after jointly holding that role with Bill Murphy for the past three seasons. Murphy left to take the same job with the Pirates last month. Bench coach Omar Lopez, base coaches Dave Clark (first) and Tony Perezchica (third), quality assurance coach Jason Bell, and game planning coach Tommy Kawamura are back in their previous positions.

Katz, 42, heads to Houston after five seasons as the top pitching coach with the White Sox. He’d previously worked in the minors with the Angels and Mariners and spent one year as an assistant pitching coach with the Giants. Chicago got excellent seasons from Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito early in Katz’s tenure. They’ve predictably gone downhill since kicking off a rebuild in 2022. Only the Angels, Athletics, Nationals and Rockies have a higher ERA than the White Sox’s 4.61 mark over the past three seasons.

The Sox parted ways with Katz at the end of the ’25 campaign. Second-year manager Will Venable tabbed Royals assistant Zach Bove as their new pitching coach. Cossins, who’ll work with Yainer Diaz and quite likely an outside acquisition behind the plate, has spent the past seven seasons with the Orioles as catching instructor/field coordinator. He was dismissed in May 2025 when the Orioles fired manager Brandon Hyde.

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