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Orioles Outright Jhonkensy Noel

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The Orioles announced that outfielder Jhonkensy Noel has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. He will stay in Baltimore’s system but without taking up a spot on the roster.

The O’s are one of the most aggressive clubs when it comes to claiming players from the waiver wire and then putting them back out there shortly thereafter. The desired result is that the player clears, allowing the club to keep the player in a non-roster capacity, which has happened in this case.

From there, the best-case scenario is that the player follows in the footsteps of Ryan O’Hearn. The O’s acquired O’Hearn from the Royals in January of 2023 and then passed him through waivers. He hit his way back onto the roster a few months later. He spent more than two years as a productive member of the club before being traded to the Padres alongside Ramón Laureano for a package of prospects at the 2025 deadline.

Noel, 24, has flashed big power in his career but has been a poor hitter apart from that. In 351 plate appearances with the Guardians over the past two seasons, he launched 19 home runs but his 4.8% walk rate and 32.8% strikeout rate were both significantly worse than league average. He had a .193/.242/.401 batting line and 79 wRC+ in that time. Since he’s not an especially strong defender or baserunner, that offense was untenable.

He exhausted his final option season in 2025, which pushed him off the edges of Cleveland’s roster and onto the waiver wire. The O’s were able to grab him and then pass him through unclaimed today. He’ll return to the Triple-A level, where his offense has been more encouraging. He stepped to the plate 536 times at that level over the past two years with a 7.5% walk rate and 23.7% strikeout rate, still not great numbers but better than his big league work. His combined .285/.349/.538 Triple-A slash line in that time led to a 130 wRC+.

Even if Noel succeeds in Norfolk, he doesn’t have an amazing path back to the majors. Baltimore’s outfield mix currently includes Colton Cowser, Taylor Ward, Dylan Beavers, Tyler O’Neill, Jeremiah Jackson, Leody Taveras, Reed Trimble, Heston Kjerstad and Marco Luciano.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Red Sox To Sign Ranger Suárez

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The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Suárez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in the Willson Contreras swap.

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.

In the wake of Bregman’s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.

He also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.

As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there’s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That’s assuming the Suárez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported yet. If it’s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post. first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Twins Claim Vidal Brujan, Designate Mickey Gasper

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The Twins announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan off waivers from the Braves, who’d designated him for assignment last week. In a corresponding move, Minnesota designated catcher/infielder Mickey Gasper for assignment. The Twins’ 40-man roster remains at capacity.

Originally signed by the Rays as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic, Brujan spent four years (2019-22) holding a spot on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list. He’s now 28 years old, out of minor league options, and has yet to hit at the major league level, however.

Brujan split the 2025 campaign between the Cubs, Orioles (one plate appearance) and Braves. The switch-hitter came to the plate 95 times overall and slashed .253/.305/.310 in that time. He’s now logged MLB action in each of the past five seasons — suiting up for the Rays and Marlins in addition to that 2025 trio of clubs — but mustered only a tepid .199/.267/.276 batting line in 645 turns at the plate.

Brujan’s once-plus speed has fallen off considerably. Statcast pegged him in the 37th percentile of big leaguers last season in terms of average sprint speed. He has decent contact skills (21.6% strikeout rate since ’22), draws walks at a nearly average clip (7.8% in that same span) and has experience at every position on the diamond other than catcher (including 3 2/3 innings of mop-up relief).

Though he hasn’t hit in the majors, Brujan has a solid track record in Triple-A, where he’s slashed .273/.356/.450 with a 10.6% walk rate and just a 16.5% strikeout rate in a little over 1000 plate appearances. Since he’s out of minor league options, the Twins won’t be able to send him to Triple-A unless he first clears waivers.

That presents something of a “logjam” of fringe-y, out-of-options players in the Twins’ bench mix. Backup catcher Alex Jackson was acquired in a trade and signed to a $1.35MM contract for the upcoming season. His spot is presumably safe. Brujan will compete with outfielder James Outman (acquired from the Dodgers in exchange for Brock Stewart this past July), former top prospect Edouard Julien and utilityman Kody Clemens — all out of options themselves — for a spot ono Minnesota’s bench. It’s also plausible that the Twins simply hope to stash him as depth in Triple-A and will try to run Brujan through waivers themselves in the weeks ahead.

The 30-year-old Gasper, acquired from the Red Sox in a Dec. 2024 trade that sent left-hander Jovani Moran to Boston, loses his 40-man spot in the wake of today’s claim. He appeared in 45 games for the Twins and took 110 plate appearances, batting .158/.257/.232 with a pair of homers. Like Brujan, he’s a switch-hitter with a strong Triple-A track record but no MLB success of which to speak. Gasper raked at a .285/.385/.531 clip with the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul this past season and carries a lifetime .303/.406/.512 batting line at the top minor league level.

Gasper’s minor league track record, unique defensive versatility and pair of remaining minor league options could net him a look from another club, whether via waiver claim or perhaps a small trade. He’s not considered a good defensive catcher, but he’s an interesting third option at the position and is a switch-hitter to boot. Gasper has spent more time at first base than behind the plate in his pro career, and he’s also logged nearly 400 innings at second base in addition to cameos at the hot corner and in left field.

MLB Mailbag: Hoerner, Red Sox, Giolito, Gallen

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This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.

Marc asks:

Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?

I was surprised as well.  I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior.  But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around.  The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables.  What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025?  They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors.  They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.

I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return.  But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.

I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner.  But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.

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Latest On Mariners’ Trade Targets

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This week’s trade sending Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona and the Cubs’ weekend signing of Alex Bregman figure to accelerate the market surrounding various trade and free agent scenarios. One club that could directly be impacted is the Mariners, who’ve spent the bulk of the winter trying to add another infielder after re-signing Josh Naylor on a five-year contract early in the offseason.

Seattle’s interest in Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan is no secret. They were linked to him last offseason and have been reported to be one of his most prominent suitors this winter. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that in addition to Donovan, the Mariners have had “ongoing” discussions with the Cardinals about left-handed reliever JoJo Romero throughout the winter. Seattle already added one southpaw arm for the bullpen, acquiring Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals in December, and they have a second outstanding option in Gabe Speier, who enjoyed a breakout year in 2025 (and was just added to the Team USA roster for the upcoming World Baseball Classic).

Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that Donovan is the Mariners’ top target on the trade market but adds that the M’s also have interest in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. The veteran Hoerner’s name has come up in trade speculation since the Bregman signing, though it seems unlikely a deal will actually come together. Chicago appears willing to listen as a matter of due diligence but would presumably need to be overwhelmed and receive substantial big league talent to trade Hoerner coming off a .297/.345/.394 season that saw him swipe 29 bases, win his second Gold Glove and finish sixth in the National League with 6.2 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference (or 15th with 4.8 fWAR, for those who prefer FanGraphs’ version of the statistic).

[Related: Giants Aggressively Pursuing Second Base Upgrade]

At this point, the fit between Donovan and the Mariners has been explored at length. He’s an affordable ($5.8MM in 2026) high-contact bat with good on-base and defensive skills who can handle either of the two currently unsettled positions in the Seattle infield: second base or third base. The M’s have plenty of highly touted prospects who could emerge at those positions — Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Michael Arroyo among them — but Donovan could also move to an outfield corner if those promising young players force the issue. He’s under control through the 2027 season via arbitration.

Romero was previously linked to the Mariners, but that was before the team acquired Ferrer. It’s notable that Jones implies there have been talks even after that swap. The 29-year-old lefty has been a mainstay in the Cardinals’ bullpen for three-plus seasons now and has steadily shown year-over-year improvement. In 2025, he tossed a career-high 61 innings with a career-best 2.07 earned run average. Romero saved eight games, tallied 24 holds and blew only one opportunity. He fanned a slightly below-average 21.6% of his opponents against a bloated 11.4% walk rate that stands as a major outlier relative to the career 7.7% walk rate he carried into the ’25 season. The lefty also kept a hefty 54.5% of batted balls on the ground.

The Cardinals signed Romero to a $4.26MM contract for the upcoming season — his final year of club control. While last year’s hiccup in terms of command is of at least some concern, the broader track record is quite strong. Since joining the Cardinals, Romero boasts a flat 3.00 ERA (3.61 SIERA) with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 53.7% ground-ball rate, 57 holds and 12 saves. The Orioles and Yankees are among the others to show interest in Romero, though it’s a veritable certainty that the field of interested clubs is much larger than just these three.

Echoing previous reporting from The Athletic’s Katie Woo, Jude suggests that at least a pair of top-100 prospects — switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Lazaro Montes — have been discussed in talks with the Cardinals. The exact permutations of those talks remains murky. There’s no firm indication that St. Louis has sought both in the same package for Donovan, just as there’s no certainty that Seattle has offered both. It’s certainly possible that Romero’s name has come up as part of a package talk involving one or both those ballyhooed young players. Whatever shape those negotiations have taken, they (obviously) have yet to culminate in a deal.

Hoerner, much like Donovan, is a straightforward fit for the Mariners. The previously mentioned Cole Young is currently in line to open the season at second base for the M’s. He’s a former first-round pick and top-50 prospect, but Young hit just .211/.302/.305 in his first 77 MLB games last year. He won’t even turn 23 until late July, so there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a quality regular, but the Mariners are built to win right now. Hoerner, a free agent next winter who’s signed for $12MM in 2026, would give the Mariners an immediate upgrade while affording them the luxury of additional development time for Young. As a bonus, Seattle could extend a qualifying offer to Hoerner next November, netting them a compensatory draft pick in the event that he signs elsewhere.

Again, the Cubs are not outright shopping Hoerner but are willing to hear other clubs out. They’re almost certainly not going to trade him for prospects who are years from MLB readiness; doing so would offset most or even all of the wins gained by bringing Bregman into the fold. It’s hard to come up with a direct exchange that would benefit both parties equally, but the Mariners are nothing if not aggressive and creative on the trade front.

At present, RosterResource projects the Mariners for just under $157MM in 2026 payroll. That’s a bit shy of the franchise-record $158MM Opening Day payroll and a ways south of the roughly $167MM figure at which they ended the 2025 campaign. Given the win-now push in Seattle and the extra revenue from a deep playoff run that saw the Mariners advance to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, it stands to reason that ownership is willing to push payroll beyond those marks.

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman

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The Cubs have made their third-largest signing in franchise history official, announcing Wednesday that they’ve signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year contract that’ll reportedly guarantee him $175MM. Bregman, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a full no-trade clause. Unlike his prior contract with the Red Sox, there are no opt-out opportunities. The deal reportedly includes $70MM of deferred money, dropping the net present value from a $35MM average annual value to something in the $30-31MM range. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow morning at 10:30am CT.

When last offseason’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he pivoted to a heavily-deferred three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox. The quality of his 2025 season, plus his ineligibility for a qualifying offer this time around, led to this long-term deal.

MLBTR projected a six-year, $160MM contract for Bregman back in November. He ultimately landed a bit shy of that on a five-year term, when accounting for deferrals. It’s still the largest average annual value in Cubs franchise history, and the total guarantee trails only Jason Heyward ($184MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM). The inclusion of deferrals is a notable departure for the Ricketts family ownership group; just last offseason, they appeared staunchly against utilizing deferred money in free agent negotiations.

For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, adding upside to the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caissie. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with a quintet of free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb.  They also retained swingman Colin Rea and starter Shota Imanaga.

Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands around $243MM for 2026, putting the Cubs just shy of the first luxury tax threshold.  The Cubs did not exceed the CBT in 2025, so they’ll reside in the lightest tax bracket if they go over in ’26.

Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.

A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.

Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.

While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.

That track record, Bregman’s excellent clubhouse reputation, and his still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. One year later, the Cubs put forth more than $40MM more to lock him up, even when considering the surprising deferred money.

Bregman likely sought a $200MM guarantee during the 2024-25 offseason. He got to $215MM on paper in total, though deferred money on both contracts probably puts him a little short of a true $200MM.  Regardless, returning to the market after opting out of a short-term deal is a strategy we’ve seen Boras execute successfully with Bregman, Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Pete Alonso in recent years, with Cody Bellinger serving as the next test case.

With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.

Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson is under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons, tallying 17.5 fWAR. Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.

With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 – with earning power likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop – his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter. The best 2026 Cubs team has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a utility infield role, but it’s at least conceivable that either player could be dealt this offseason.

For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have provided a painful sequence of events at third base.  Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise June blockbuster, and now Bregman has departed as well. According to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause.”

The Red Sox, the only team yet to have signed a Major League free agent this winter, could turn to Bo Bichette to play second base.  Bichette will likely require a long-term deal of his own, however, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one).

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan adding terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today providing further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.

MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

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José Ureña Signs With NPB’s Rakuten Eagles

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The Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed veteran right-hander José Ureña to a one-year contract for the 2026 season. It’ll be the first stint overseas for the Premier Talent Sports client, who’s previously pitched for 11 major league clubs — including a whopping five teams in 2025 alone.

Ureña, 34, split the ’25 campaign between the Mets, Twins, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels. He logged a combined 55 innings between that quintet of clubs and worked to a 4.58 ERA. Ureña fanned just 13.9% of his opponents and turned in a 9.4% walk rate. The 96.2 mph average on his four-seamer was the second-best mark he’s posted in any of his 11 major league seasons.

For at least a couple seasons early in his career, Ureña looked the part of a nice back-of-the-rotation arm for the Marlins — his original organization. From 2017-18, he pitched 343 2/3 innings with a 3.90 earned run average, a below-average 17% strikeout rate, a solid 8% walk rate and an above-average 46.3% ground-ball rate. He obviously didn’t miss many bats, but Ureña was a hard-throwing sinker specialist who kept the ball on the ground and generally did a decent job avoiding home runs.

Things unraveled for Ureña beginning in 2019, however, and he didn’t get back on track at all until the 2024 season. While he’s posted decent bottom-line results over the past two seasons (4.06 ERA, 164 innings), the right-hander’s rate stats have continued to slip in recent years. Fielding-independent metrics like SIERA (4.89) and FIP (4.81) feel even that modest earned run average would be tough to sustain with his current rate output. And overall, dating back to 2019, Ureña has a 5.04 ERA in 514 1/3 major league frames.

Between those declining rate stats and the dizzying toll of pitching between five different teams in a single season, Ureña presumably welcomes the opportunity to have a guaranteed contract for the upcoming season. With a nice year overseas, he could position himself for another one-year pact in NPB, and if he makes some meaningful changes to his repertoire, it’s possible he’ll end up back in the major league mix next year, either on a non-roster deal or a small one-year guarantee.

The Opener: Tucker, Cardinals, Yankees, Marlins

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Tucker market accelerating:

Kyle Tucker’s market finally appears to be picking up steam. The Mets have reportedly made a short-term offer with an average annual value as high as $50MM, while the Blue Jays have put forth a long-term offer — the details of which remain unclear. If Tucker is genuinely considering shorter-term offers, the Dodgers will surely be interested as well. Other teams like the Yankees seem to be hanging around the periphery of Tucker’s market, too, although fellow lefty-swinging outfielder Cody Bellinger appears to remain the priority over in the Bronx. With some reports suggesting that Tucker could agree to a deal before the end of the week, where will he land?

2. Cardinals move into post-Arenado era:

The Cardinals finally pulled off their long-awaited trade of likely future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado yesterday, and in shipping him to the Diamondbacks (and paying down all but $11MM of his contract to do so) they’ll enter the 2026 season without any of the veteran All-Stars they carried in previous years on their roster. For a rebuilding club like St. Louis, that means an opportunity to give significant run to younger players like Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt. The question for the Cardinals at this point is whether (or when) some of the club’s arbitration-eligible players, like infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan or lefty reliever JoJo Romero, will follow Arenado out the door.

3. What’s next in the Bronx and Miami?:

The Yankees pulled off a surprising trade last night when they nabbed hard-throwing lefty Ryan Weathers from the Marlins in exchange for four lower-minors prospects led by outfielder Dillon Lewis. The deal seemingly brings to a close the Yankees’ pursuit of starting pitching help this offseason. Weathers should fortify the rotation with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt all opening the season on the injured list.

With Weathers now in the fold, perhaps the Yankees can more fully focus on addressing their lineup, whether that’s with a Bellinger reunion, a pivot toward Tucker or Bo Bichette, or a pursuit of an unexpected target. As for the Marlins, they were already considering adding an innings-eating veteran starter after trading Edward Cabrera to the Cubs last week. That only figures to be become more important now that they’ve taken another valuable arm out of their rotation mix. Zack Littell, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Jose Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano and Chris Paddack are among the many yet-unsigned free agent starters.

Cardinals Trade Nolan Arenado To Diamondbacks

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After more than a yearlong residency on the rumor mill, Nolan Arenado’s time in St. Louis is over. The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve traded Arenado and cash to the D-backs in exchange for minor league right-hander Jack Martinez (Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft). The Diamondbacks are reportedly on the hook for a total of $11MM of the remaining $42MM owed to Arenado over the next two seasons. The Cardinals owe the remaining $31MM. Arizona’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now at capacity with the addition of Arenado.

With the Cardinals entering a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, trading the 34-year-old Arenado (35 in April) has been a primary goal this offseason. St. Louis has finally achieved that goal but paid a hefty price to do so. Arizona will be on the hook for just $5MM this season and $6MM next year.

Three years ago, a salary dump of Arenado would’ve been hard to imagine. He was a National League MVP finalist after hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs and his typical brand of elite defense during that 2022 season. His offense slipped considerably in 2023 (.266/.315/.459) but was still north of league average. It dipped to about average in 2024, however, and plummeted well below par this past season.

In 436 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2025, Arenado turned in an anemic .237/.289/.377 batting line. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% worse than an average hitter at the plate. Arenado’s 12 home runs were his lowest in a full season since his rookie year back in 2013. This year’s 6.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. When considering that his 34.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate was also his worst since 2015, that’s not particularly surprising. Arenado’s 11.2% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB and one of the best in his career, but he also posted his highest-ever infield fly rate — 16.5% of his fly-balls were harmless pop-ups — and recorded some of the worst exit velocity and hard-hit numbers of his career.

Suffice it to say, Arenado’s decline at the plate has been steep. He still possesses plus contact skills but will need to scale back his chase rate and cut out some of those weak pop-ups if he’s to improve in a meaningful way. Fortunately for Arenado, he’s going to a more favorable offensive environment than the one he’s been calling home in St. Louis. While Phoenix’s Chase Field isn’t the hitters’ haven it once was, it plays largely neutral to right-handed power now — a stark gain for Arenado relative to St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, which is the fifth-worst park for right-handed home run power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors.

Prior to adding Arenado, the Diamondbacks had been involved in the market for Alex Bregman. A match there always seemed like something of a long shot, given Arizona’s intent to reduce payroll in 2026, but the interest was legitimate. The Snakes quickly pivoted and brought in a much more affordable option to hold down the hot corner for the next two seasons. Arenado’s glove has also taken some steps back in recent years, but he’s still an above-average defender. He’ll give manager Torey Lovullo a quality pair of defenders on the left side of the infield, joining breakout shortstop Geraldo Perdomo in that regard.

Acquiring Arenado leaves the Diamondbacks with little opportunity for former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Perdomo’s breakout appeared to push Lawlar down the defensive spectrum to third base, but he looked overmatched both with the glove and in the batter’s box during his first few tests against MLB pitching. The D-backs were considering giving him some time in the outfield, and perhaps with Jake McCarthy now in Colorado following this weekend’s trade, there’ll be a clearer path to that experiment. If not, Lawlar has a minor league option remaining and can be sent back to Triple-A (where he’s routinely thrashed opposing pitchers) — or even included in a potential trade package to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Even with the Snakes looking to cut payroll, the addition of that fraction of Arenado’s contract amounts to little more than a footnote. He’s effectively replacing a league-minimum player, so this trade adds a net $4.2MM to the team’s books. Per RosterResource’s estimates, that brings Arizona’s payroll just north of $170MM. That’s more than $17MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. An exact target isn’t clear, but there should be room to add a reliever or two, at the very least, and further trades could always change the payroll outlook one way or another.

If the money changing hands (and the frequent reporting in the year-plus leading up to today’s trade) wasn’t indicative enough that this amounts to a salary dump for St. Louis, the return should be. Martinez hasn’t pitched an inning in professional ball yet. The Diamondbacks selected him with their eighth-round pick last year out of Arizona State University. His $167K signing bonus checked in south of his No. 243 overall selection’s $223K slot value.

A 6’4″, 215-pound righty, Martinez started his college career playing Division-III ball before transferring twice and ending up in the Sun Devils’ rotation as a senior. He was tagged for a 5.47 ERA through 15 starts during his senior year. It’s not an encouraging number, but Martinez punched out 32.3% of his opponents and can run his fastball up to 97 mph, per MLB.com’s scouting report. He has a four-pitch mix with a changeup serving as his best secondary offering, but Martinez is a pure lottery ticket for the Cardinals’ reshaped player development department.

A year ago, the Cardinals thought they had worked out a trade to send Arenado the Astros. Arenado, however, invoked his no-trade protection to nix that arrangement, reportedly due to reservations about the Astros’ commitment to contending; Houston had just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs days prior to the nixed Arenado deal. Heading into the current offseason, Arenado was forthcoming about the fact that he’d be more open-minded to offseason trade scenarios than he was last winter.

That clearly seems to be the case, but the D-backs might’ve been a viable landing spot for him even if he were continuing to remain selective. Arizona may be scaling back payroll, but their signings of Merrill Kelly and Michael Soroka — plus their reported interest in the aforementioned Bregman — all signal a commitment to try to field a contender in 2026. Beyond that, Arenado is a Southern California native with a home in Arizona. There are geographic benefits that surely played into his decision to waive that no-trade clause for a move to the desert.

For the Cardinals, moving Arenado now clears a relatively nominal sum from the long-term books and furthers their goal of creating opportunities for younger players. It remains to be seen whether Arenado’s third base reps will go to Nolan Gorman, top prospect JJ Wetherholt or even former top prospect/third baseman-turned-outfielder Jordan Walker. Whoever takes up regular work at the hot corner will be a more viable long-term option at the position than Arenado is as he enters his mid-30s.

The trade of Arenado is the third of a big-name veteran on a large contract for the Cardinals this offseason. They’ve already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to the Red Sox. Those players were shipped out in separate deals, with St. Louis eating notable portions of money in those trades, too. Between Gray, Contreras and now Arenado, the Cardinals will be shelling out $59MM over the next two seasons to three players who are no longer on their books.

Eating that amount of money to facilitate the trades of three former All-Stars is unprecedented, but the Cardinals have been clear about their intent to rebuild the organization from the ground up, modernizing the player development department, analytics staff and various other components of the team’s baseball operations setup — all while affording younger and more controllable players the opportunity to establish themselves in the majors. With three pricey veterans gone, much of the heavy lifting has been taken care of, but the Cardinals are still widely expected to trade second baseman Brendan Donovan and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero before the season begins.

Katie Woo of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were in serious discussions. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Arizona Sports broke the news that an agreement was in place and added that Martinez was going back to St. Louis. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported details on the cash changing hands.

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