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Red Sox, Pirates Swap Johan Oviedo And Jhostynxon García In Five-Player Trade

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The Red Sox and Pirates announced a five-player trade on Thursday evening. Starter Johan Oviedo heads to Boston alongside lefty reliever Tyler Samaniego and minor league catcher Adonys Guzman. Pittsburgh gets rookie outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia and A-ball pitching prospect Jesus Travieso. Boston needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster, so they designated righty Cooper Criswell for assignment. Pittsburgh’s roster count drops to 39.

Oviedo and Garcia are the centerpieces of the deal on either side. The 27-year-old Oviedo is a 6’6″ right-hander who has been a capable back-end starter since the Pirates acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline. He’d been a swingman with the Cardinals for his first couple seasons but has stepped into a full-time rotation role for the Bucs. Oviedo took the ball 32 times and ranked second on the team with 177 2/3 innings in 2023. He posted a 4.31 earned run average with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates.

While Oviedo stayed healthy throughout the ’23 season, he reported elbow soreness at year’s end. That proved a precursor to Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 campaign. Oviedo had a shot to return for the start of ’25 but suffered a lat strain while building up early in Spring Training. He was shut down for a few months and didn’t make his season debut until the beginning of August. He took the ball nine times down the stretch, turning in a 3.57 ERA over 40 1/3 innings.

Oviedo’s return was a mixed bag. He recorded a career-best 24.7% strikeout rate while getting whiffs at a solid 11.7% clip. The stuff looked as sharp as it’d been before his successive arm injuries. Oviedo averaged 95.5 MPH on his fastball and got good results on both an upper-80s slider and mid-70s curveball. The slider has been a plus pitch throughout his career and had a little more glove-side movement. His height also allows him to get more than seven feet of extension, so his already above-average velocity should play up.

While there are clearly things to like, Oviedo remains a work in progress. He walked three batters in seven of his nine starts, issuing free passes at an untenable 13.5% rate overall. That inefficiency kept him from working deep into games. Oviedo only once pitched into the sixth inning and didn’t complete six full frames in any appearance. It’s fair to expect some rust in his command after an 18-month absence, but throwing strikes has always been an issue. Oviedo routinely posted double-digit walk rates in the minors and issued free passes at a 10.6% rate over a full season in 2023.

The other question is whether he’ll be able to handle left-handed hitters. His changeup is a clear fourth pitch. Lefties managed a solid .244/.341/.436 line with 14 home runs in 419 plate appearances a couple years ago. Oviedo had much better results against lefties in 2025 (.151/.259/.301), but that came in a small sample with an unimpressive 19:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Oviedo has four-plus years of MLB service. He’s under arbitration control for two seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2MM salary. He still has a minor league option remaining and doesn’t need to open the season on the active roster. He’ll cross the five-year service threshold when he logs another 93 days on the big league active roster or injured list. The Sox would no longer be able to send him to the minors without his consent at that point.

They hope that won’t be a consideration. They liked Oviedo enough to give up one of their top upper minors hitting talents, gambling that they can unlock another level of consistency in the process. That suggests he’s got a good chance to slot behind Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello in Alex Cora’s rotation. The Sox should welcome Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval back from injury. Prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early debuted late in the season, while former top prospect Kyle Harrison remains in the mix.

Garcia, 23 next week, should get everyday at-bats in Pittsburgh. He didn’t have a clear path to playing time in a crowded Boston outfield but projects as the starting left fielder for the Pirates. The right-handed hitter got a cup of coffee at Fenway Park last August, picking up a hit and two walks over nine plate appearances. He otherwise divided the season between the top two levels of the minor leagues.

Known for his excellent nickname “The Password,” Garcia combined for 21 home runs with a robust .267/.340/.470 batting line across 489 plate appearances. It’s strong bottom line production for a 22-year-old, though the Sox might have had concerns about his approach. The Venezuela native struck out at a 29.1% clip while chasing more than 35% of pitches outside the strike zone over his 81 Triple-A games. The pure hit tool is a red flag, but he has topped 20 homers in consecutive minor league seasons.

Baseball America credited Garcia with above-average power and bat speed in recently ranking him the #6 prospect in the Boston system. BA writes that Garcia is a serviceable defensive center fielder despite having only average speed. He’s probably better suited in the corner opposite Bryan Reynolds but could play up the middle on days when Oneil Cruz is unavailable.

The Pirates control Garcia for at least six seasons. He still has a pair of minor league options, so they could send him back to Triple-A without issue if his approach needs further refinement. There are some parallels to last winter’s acquisition of Spencer Horwitz and the 2024 Quinn Priester/Nick Yorke deadline swap (also with the Red Sox). Pittsburgh leverages their rotation depth for a controllable upper level bat. Garcia arguably has the highest ceiling of that trio, and this surely won’t be the only lineup addition of the winter for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

While it’s mostly an Oviedo/Garcia framework, the teams also swapped a few prospects. Samaniego, who turns 27 in January, might factor into the Boston bullpen next season. The former 15th-round pick tossed 26 1/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball at the Double-A level this year. He fanned 28% of opponents with a sub-6% walk rate. Pittsburgh selected him onto the 40-man roster last month to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He still has a full slate of options and is probably ticketed for Triple-A Worcester.

Guzman, who turned 22 today, was Pittsburgh’s fifth-round pick out of the University of Arizona over the summer. The right-handed hitting catcher has only played one game in Low-A. Baseball America credited him with plus arm strength and some power to left field in their draft report. He’s a long-term development play behind the dish.

The Pirates round out their side of the deal with Travieso. He’s an 18-year-old righty who signed with Boston as an amateur out of Venezuela in 2024. He’s listed at 5’11” and has yet to garner much prospect attention, but he struck out nearly 32% of opponents over seven games in Low-A late in the season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Red Sox and Pirates agreed to a five-player deal involving Oviedo and Garcia. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the full trade. Respective images courtesy of Charles Leclaire and Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images.

Cubs, Tigers Have Renewed Interest In Alex Bregman

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The Cubs are again showing interest in Alex Bregman, report Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that the Tigers are back in the mix, along with the incumbent Red Sox.

Those three teams were the final suitors for Bregman last offseason. Detroit reportedly put forth a six-year, $171.5MM offer — albeit with deferred money that would have reduced the net present value — with an opt-out after the second season. The Cubs offered a four-year contract which various reports put at either $115MM or $120MM that included opt-out chances after the second and third season.

Bregman opted for the shortest deal to get back to the market, accepting a three-year guarantee from Boston with outs after the first two years. He made $40MM (half of it deferred) and triggered the opt-out after one season with the Sox. His market won’t be impacted by the qualifying offer this time around. He’ll turn 32 just after Opening Day and could take aim at another six-year deal.

Detroit’s continued interest is expected. They’re still managed by A.J. Hinch, his longtime skipper with the Astros. Zach McKinstry was a surprise All-Star this year, but his numbers tanked in the second half. The Tigers would be better off with him in a utility role, perhaps taking the majority of the shortstop reps from Javier Báez until top prospect Kevin McGonigle arrives. They could use Colt Keith as a left-handed complement to Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres on the right side of the infield, while mixing him in at designated hitter when Kerry Carpenter plays right field.

The fit is a little more difficult on the Cubs, especially if Bregman commands a long-term deal. That’d squeeze out former first-round pick Matt Shaw, who is coming off a reasonably impressive rookie season. Shaw’s overall .226/.295/.394 line is subpar, but he settled in after struggling in his initial looks at big league pitching. Shaw got out to a horrible start but was a league average hitter after being recalled from Triple-A in the middle of May. That includes a .258/.317/.522 showing in the second half, although he slumped a bit in the final month after a huge August.

Shaw impressed defensively, especially later in the season. The Cubs could justify giving him the third base job and hoping for continued improvements at the plate. It wasn’t such an overwhelming debut that it takes them completely out of the running on Bregman, however. Shaw ranked in the bottom 10 percent of qualified hitters in average exit velocity and hard contact rate. He doesn’t have huge bat speed, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be the 20-25 homer threat that Bregman has been over his career.

It still seems likely the Cubs will prioritize adding a mid-rotation or better starter. They reportedly made a run at Dylan Cease and are involved in the bidding for NPB pitcher Tatsuya Imai. A pursuit of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez would be logical. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number around $197MM, which puts them $35MM shy of this past season’s mark. They’re nearly $50MM below the base tax threshold.

Signing Bregman and a #2 starter would probably put them into tax territory, and it’s not clear if ownership would approve that kind of spending. They could address the rotation on the trade market, though, and Shaw would be a quality piece to dangle in talks if they upgrade at third base. They could also use him off the bench in a utility role with the long-term plan of moving him to second base once Nico Hoerner reaches free agency next offseason.

Pirates Remain Open To Dealing From Rotation For Offense

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The Pirates traded back-end starter Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox tonight, getting rookie outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia back as part of a five-player deal.  Garcia immediately becomes the favorite to start the season in left field, but the Bucs undoubtedly have more lineup acquisitions on the way.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Pirates remain open to offers on their starters — obviously excepting Paul Skenes, whom general manager Ben Cherington has already declared will not be moved. That wouldn’t be for prospects, as the goal would be to swap pitching for offense. Cherington and his front office have made a few trades of that type over the past year and a half. In addition to the Oviedo/Garcia deal, they swapped Quinn Priester for Nick Yorke at the 2024 deadline and flipped Luis Ortiz and a pair of pitching prospects for Spencer Horwitz last winter. The Horwitz deal looks the far better of the previous two trades.

It seems safe to assume the Pirates aren’t trading Jared Jones, a potential top-of-the-rotation arm who is midway through rehabbing elbow surgery. Bubba Chandler is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. It’d be almost as surprising to see him moved. Even with Oviedo headed to Boston, the Bucs have a few intriguing possibilities.

Mitch Keller is the most straightforward trade candidate. He has been in trade rumors for years, though that was generally about Pittsburgh being in a rebuild. It’s a different situation now that the goal is to build a playoff-caliber lineup for next season. Keller is a solid mid-rotation starter whose production has tailed off in the second half of three consecutive years. He has been a durable source of innings with a low-4.00s ERA overall. He attacks the strike zone and has solid velocity but doesn’t miss many bats. At age 30, it’s unlikely he’ll jump from a #3/4 starter to become an ace.

Keller is signed for three seasons. He’ll make $16.5MM next season, following by respective $18MM and $20MM salaries. He’s the highest-paid player on the team, but that doesn’t appear to be as big an issue this offseason as it might normally be. The Pirates are reportedly open to being more aggressive in adding mid-tier free agent hitters. They’d obviously have more payroll space if they move Keller, but the contract isn’t forcing him out the door.

There should be some surplus value. Keller would probably top three years and $54.5MM if he were a free agent. It’s not a huge bargain, though, as his open market value might be in the $65-75MM range. The Pirates would be more likely to get an established hitter with multiple years of control if they were willing to trade one of their younger arms. Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows would be particularly valuable.

Ashcraft thrived in a multi-inning relief role as a rookie. The 26-year-old righty struck out 24.3% of batters faced while pitching to a 2.71 ERA across 69 2/3 innings. He sat around 97 MPH with his fastballs while throwing a pair of power breaking pitches. He’s likely to get a rotation spot next season and has six years of club control.

Burrows, also 26, has yet to reach one full year of service either. He sits around 95 MPH with his fastball and has a four-pitch mix. Burrows punched out 24.1% of opponents while working to a 3.94 earned run average through 96 frames. He held a rotation spot from late May through the end of the season.

Pittsburgh would get no shortage of interest in Burrows and Ashcraft. The Diamondbacks (Jordan Lawlar), Angels (Christian Moore), Giants (Bryce Eldridge) and Orioles (Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo) are all in the market for starting pitching and have highly-touted hitting prospects who have yet to establish themselves in MLB.

The pitching pipeline extends even further. Hunter Barco, Antwone Kelly, Wilber Dotel and Thomas Harrington are all on the 40-man roster. The first three all rank among the organization’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America. Harrington might be more of a depth arm, but all four pitchers should have fans in other clubs’ scouting departments. The Pirates added another high-octane arm to the system last summer, drafting high school righty Seth Hernandez sixth overall. He’s years away and comes with the standard risks for any teenage pitcher but offers another potential impact starter in the future.

Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Robert Suarez

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The Dodgers are among the teams with interest in free agent closer Robert Suarez, report Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo of The Athletic. L.A.’s interest in adding a high-leverage reliever is well-known, but Ardaya and Woo write that they’d prefer that to be on a shorter-term commitment.

Suarez, who turns 35 in Spring Training, might be the ideal candidate. The length of his deal will be capped by his age and he’s among the best relievers available. Suarez has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in three of his four seasons since signing with the Padres during the 2021-22 offseason. That includes a 2.97 mark across a career-high 69 2/3 innings this past season. He led the National League with 40 saves in 45 tries and has an MLB-high 76 saves over the last two years.

One of the hardest throwers in the sport, Suarez averaged 98.6 MPH on his fastball. He has dominated hitters from both sides of the plate over the course of his career, as his changeup gives him a weapon against left-handed batters. He punched out 27.9% of opponents against a career-low 5.9% walk rate this year. Suarez doesn’t get quite as many whiffs as one might expect based on the velocity — he essentially hasn’t thrown a breaking ball in the last two years — but it’s difficult to argue the track record.

MLBTR predicted Suarez to receive a three-year, $48MM contract. A three-year deal should be the ceiling, and it’s not out of the question that he’s limited to two years at a premium annual value. As Front Office subscribers can find on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have only been two three-year deals for a 35-year-old reliever over the past decade. Those came at $7-8MM annually, well below what Suarez will command. Not since Mariano Rivera has a reliever this age pulled a three-year contract on eight figure salaries. Suarez will probably take aim at snapping that streak.

Edwin Díaz is the best free agent reliever, but he’s reportedly seeking a five-year contract that approaches or exceeds $100MM. Suarez is the next-best option. Pete Fairbanks, Luke Weaver, Brad Keller, Kyle Finnegan and old friend Kenley Jansen are also unsigned. While Fairbanks has been a Dodger target in past trade talks, Woo and Ardaya report that L.A. is not among the various teams in his market as a free agent.

The Dodgers have left-handers Alex Vesia and Tanner Scott as their top internal leverage arms. Blake Treinen, Brock Stewart and Brusdar Graterol come with performance and/or injury questions. They saw Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates hit free agency and non-tendered Evan Phillips last month.

Cutting Phillips was a formality, as he was headed into his final season of arbitration control. The former closer underwent Tommy John surgery in June and might miss the entire 2026 season. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times last month that the Dodgers were interested in re-signing the righty, presumably on a two-year contract. Friedman said that Phillips may prefer to wait to sign until after he resumes a throwing program, so it’s possible he’ll remain on the open market all winter.

Red Sox Designate Cooper Criswell For Assignment

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The Red Sox designated right-hander Cooper Criswell for assignment. They needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster to finalize this evening’s five-player trade with Pittsburgh.

Criswell and the Sox worked out an $800K contract last month. While the righty locked in a fully guaranteed salary a little above the MLB minimum, that also pointed to a likely offseason DFA. It has become increasingly common for teams to work out slightly above minimum deals with players whom they’re considering dropping from the 40-man roster. The salary could serve as a minor deterrent for another team to place a waiver claim. Perhaps more importantly, it gives the player incentive to accept a minor league assignment if they clear.

The 29-year-old Criswell was outrighted by the Rays during the 2022 season. That gives him the right to decline future outrights in his career. Criswell might have elected free agency had the Sox ran him through waivers earlier in the winter. It’s less likely that he’d walk away from guaranteed money, so the Sox could stash him in Triple-A if no other team places a claim.

Criswell had a decent season in a swing role in 2024. He logged a career-high 99 1/3 innings with a 4.08 earned run average. He doesn’t have huge velocity or swing-and-miss potential, but he threw strikes and got a decent number of ground-balls. He didn’t get nearly as much big league work this past season. Criswell logged 17 2/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA over seven appearances. He spent the rest of the season at Triple-A Worcester, pitching to a 3.70 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate across 65 2/3 frames.

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reported the move before the club announcement.

Phillies Re-Sign Michael Mercado To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have re-signed right-hander Michael Mercado to a minor league deal, reports Steve Potter of philliesbaseballfan.com. Presumably, the righty will also receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Mercado, 27 in April, was just non-tendered last month. He hadn’t yet qualified for arbitration but the non-tender deadline is the only day in the year when a player can be sent directly to free agency without being exposed to waivers. By taking that path with Mercado, the Phils gave him a chance to sign with the other 29 clubs but it also gave them the chance to quickly bring him back in a non-roster capacity.

The Phils initially acquired Mercado from the Rays in November of 2023. He was about to become a minor league free agent at that time but the Phils wanted him enough that they stopped that from happening. They sent right-hander Adam Leverett and cash considerations to Tampa and immediately gave Mercado a 40-man spot before he could hit the open market.

Since being acquired, he has worked both as a starter and a reliever for the Phils, with some strikeout stuff but also a lack of control. He has thrown 118 2/3 Triple-A innings over the past two seasons, allowing 3.11 earned runs per nine while striking out 22.9% of batters faced but issuing walks at a 12.5% clip. An 80.6% strand rate seemed to help him out with run prevention, leading to a less optimistic 4.48 FIP. Regardless, the Phils gave him some occasional big league looks, which he didn’t take advantage of. He currently has an 11.81 ERA in 16 big league innings.

Mercado is clearly not fully established in the majors yet but the Phillies presumably like his arsenal. He had averaged 95.8 miles per hour with his fastball in his big league career while also featuring a cutter, splitter, curveball and changeup. He’ll give the club some depth as he looks to earn his way back onto the roster. If he eventually gets his spot back, he still has one minor league option and just a handful of service days. That means he can still provide roster flexibility and cheap control.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Re-Sign Tommy Henry To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks and left-hander Tommy Henry have reunited on a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so it’s possible this is a two-year deal, though the tracker doesn’t specify that.

Henry, now 28, has been in the Diamondbacks’ organization since being drafted in 2019. He made it to the big leagues in 2022 and has spent the past few years serving as an optionable swingman, working both as a starter and a reliever.

He exhausted his final option in 2025, which was going to make it tougher for him to hold a roster spot going forward, even before his surgery complicated things. The Snakes designated him for assignment last month in order to open roster space for prospects they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 draft. A few days later, Henry was non-tendered. That sent him to free agency without being exposed to waivers and allowed the Diamondbacks to bring him back in a non-roster capacity.

Henry will spent at least the first half of 2026 rehabbing. He could be back on the mound late in the year but missing the entire season is also a possibility. It’s anyone’s guess what the Arizona pitching staff will look like in the future. Currently, they definitely need arms, as guys like Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk and Justin Martínez are also facing lengthy surgery rehabs at the moment. The team still has an entire offseason to make moves and then the 2026 campaign could go any number of ways.

Whenever Henry is recovered, he can try to earn his way back onto the roster. In his career, he has logged 181 big league innings, allowing 5.07 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 17.4% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.4% clip and induced grounders at a 39.3% rate. If he gets a roster spot at some point down the line, he is out of options but has just barely two years of service time, meaning he is still cheap and controllable.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Twins To Sign Grant Hartwig To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are going to sign right-hander Grant Hartwig to a minor league deal, reports Darren Wolfson of KSTP. The ACES client will also receive an invite to major league camp in spring training.

Hartwig, 28 this month, has a limited big league track record. He tossed 42 innings for the Mets over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He allowed 24 earned runs, giving him a 5.14 ERA. He struck out 18% of batters faced and issued walks at a 10.1% rate, both subpar figures, but induced grounders on 46.5% of balls in play. He averaged in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker while also mixing in a cutter, slider and changeup.

In June of the latter campaign, he required surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee. He was non-tendered at the end of the year and re-signed on a minor league deal. In July of 2025, he headed overseas to play for Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He posted a 3.65 ERA for the Tigers in a small sample of 12 1/3 innings.

As a minor leaguer, Hartwig has generally been able to get strikeouts but hasn’t featured pristine control. Dating back to the start of 2023, he has thrown 94 2/3 innings on the farm, mostly at Triple-A. In that time, he has a 4.47 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate. In 2025, he was out to a good start, having tossed 23 2/3 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate.

That was enough to get him interest in Japan but he didn’t make the most of the opportunity there. In his limited sample of work with the Tigers, he only struck out 15.1% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 13.2% clip. It’s always tough to find meaning in that kind of sample size but that should be especially true about a guy making a midseason move from MLB to Japan.

For the Twins, they stripped down their bullpen at last year’s deadline. They sent out Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart and Danny Coulombe. It’s unclear whether they plan for 2026 to be a sort of reset year or if they plan to reinvest in the roster in an attempt to compete. Either way, they will need some fresh bullpen arms. If Hartwig can crack the roster, he is still optionable and has less than a year of service time. That means he can provide roster flexibility and affordable control for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

Reds Re-Sign Emilio Pagán

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December 4th: The Reds officially announced the Pagán signing today.

December 3rd: The Reds are reportedly bringing back closer Emilio Pagán on a two-year, $20MM contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the Ballengee Group client to opt out after next season. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster count will climb to 39 once the signing is finalized.

Pagán returns on another two-year deal after one of the best seasons of his career. The Reds surprisingly signed him to a $16MM contract over the 2023-24 offseason. There was obvious risk in adding a fly-ball pitcher to work in high-leverage spots at one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly parks. Pagán didn’t post great numbers and missed a couple months with a lat injury in 2024, so he had an easy call to bypass an opt-out and return to Cincinnati.

This year went a lot more smoothly. Pagán took over the closer role from Alexis Díaz and recorded a career-high 32 saves. He did blow six save chances but had a strong season overall, pitching to a 2.88 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings. He punched out 30% of opponents against a solid 8.1% walk rate. Pagán avoided any injuries and pitched well against left- and right-handed batters alike. He got swinging strikes at a strong 14.6% clip while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball.

Pagán has always had an elite strikeout and walk profile. He hasn’t had the year-by-year consistency of the sport’s best closers, though. The fly-ball approach still leaves him vulnerable to the home run ball. Pagán has only had one season in his nine-year career in which he has allowed fewer home runs than the average reliever. He has surrendered 85 home runs since entering the league in 2017. That’s 19 more than any other reliever over that stretch.

The longball is always going to be an issue, but Pagán sticking around as a high-leverage reliever despite the homers is a testament to his effectiveness in other areas. He’s a reliable control artist with above-average velocity. His splitter gives him an option to attack opposite-handed hitters, while he mixes in a cutter as his main offspeed pitch versus righty batters. Pagán has generally been durable outside of the aforementioned lat strain. He has topped 50 innings in every other full schedule of his career, including six years with 60+ frames.

Pagán’s strong walk year earns him a nice contract for his age 35-36 seasons. The guarantee narrowly beats our two-year, $16MM prediction. Pagán also gets the upside of the out clause, which allows him to get back to free agency if he has an equally strong ’26 season. Another two-year deal at age 36 would be rare but not unprecedented, so it’s not out of the question that he pitches well enough to consider that route.

Assuming Terry Francona slots Pagán back in the ninth inning, he’ll pitch behind a solid setup group that includes Tony Santillan, Connor Phillips and Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati should add a left-hander at some point. The only southpaw who’d be in their bullpen at the moment is Sam Moll, who was up and down from Triple-A Louisville throughout the year.

Cincinnati has $32.275MM in guaranteed contracts to six players: Pagán, Hunter Greene, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Trevino, Ben Rortvedt, and Moll. They owe $15MM in dead money ($12MM salary and a $3MM option buyout payable after the World Series) to Jeimer Candelario. Cincinnati has a sizable arbitration class which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost around $45MM. They’d owe another $8-10MM in minimum salary players, which puts their current commitments in the $100-105MM range. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said he expects payroll to be around the $116MM at which they opened the 2025 season.

That’d leave them with roughly $15-20MM to spend. They’re in the market for an impact bat and reportedly trying to bring Kyle Schwarber back to the Cincinnati area. That would surely cost more than $20MM annually. It’s possible ownership would make an exception for someone like Schwarber or Pete Alonso. The front office could also look to trade a player or two from the arbitration class to free up more spending capacity if they feel they’ve got a strong chance to sign an elite hitter.

Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported that the Reds and Pagán had reached a two-year, $20MM deal with an out. Image courtesy of Imagn Images.

Poll: Would Kyle Tucker Or Bo Bichette Fit The Blue Jays Better?

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The Blue Jays have been the most aggressive team in free agency by far this winter. Their offseason so far has been headlined by a seven-year deal for Dylan Cease. That hasn’t stopped them from remaining aggressive at the top of the market, however, and the Jays remain the team that’s been most clearly connected to the winter’s top two free agents: outfielder Kyle Tucker and infielder Bo Bichette. Bichette, of course, has spent his entire career with the Blue Jays and has not been shy about his desire to remain with Toronto going forward. Tucker, meanwhile, seems all but certain to depart from the incumbent Cubs for greener pastures and just yesterday met with the Jays at the club’s Spring Training complex in Dunedin.

While Toronto is very clearly involved in the markets for both players, it’s worth remembering that the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of around $282MM, according to RosterResource. Adding Tucker or Bichette and a $25-40MM annual salary to the books would push them past the highest threshold of the luxury tax, which sits at $304MM and carries with it the steepest penalties for going over.  They might not be willing or able to both re-sign Bichette and also bring Tucker into the fold. If the Jays are only able to land one of the offseason’s top two hitters, then, who would be the better fit for their roster?

Bichette is the familiar pick, and it’s hard to argue with his impact on the team. A three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani Bichette hit while playing through injury in Game 7 of this year’s World Series nearly made the Jays champions and that was just one piece of the .348/.444/.478 performance he turned in across seven Fall Classic games despite being hobbled on the bases and in the field. While an injury-marred and deeply disappointing season for Bichette in 2024 soured some on his overall profile, he’s still turned in a wRC+ of 120 or higher in six of his seven MLB seasons with a career mark of 122. That he’s done all that while typically playing a generally adequate shortstop is all the more impressive.

With that being said, Bichette isn’t exactly a perennial MVP candidate. His defense on the infield has never been great and a disastrous defensive season by the metrics this year has made it all the more clear that his future is likely at second or third base. For as consistently impressive as Bichette has been when healthy, he was only the third-best hitter on the Jays in 2025. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has, of course, stood head and shoulders above the rest of the team in terms of star power and overall offensive impact, but there have been years where Bichette was outperformed by George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Brandon Belt, Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez in the Jays’ lineup over the years. None of those players come close to matching Bichette’s consistency, but it’s fair to argue that he doesn’t offer the sort of six-plus win upside offered by many of the recent top free agents available.

That’s where Tucker stands out. The 28-year-old (29 in January) is a simply a cut above Bichette as a hitter. Tucker’s career 138 wRC+ is four points higher than the mark Bichette posted this year, which was his career-best in a season, outside of his 46-game rookie campaign in 2019. Since the start of the 2021 season, Tucker has hit .277/.365/.514 with 23.4 fWAR, a greater total than Bichette has accumulated across his entire career. Tucker is also a perennial threat to steal 25 to 30 bases, while Bichette has swiped more than 13 bags just once before in his career. Tucker’s status as a left-handed bat would also make him a strong complement to the Jays’ cache of impressive right-handed hitters, which includes not only Guerrero but also Springer and Kirk.

As perfect as the fit between Tucker and the Jays might seem, however, it’s worth considering the fact that Bichette could prove to be a better long-term investment. Both have dealt with injuries over the past two years, with 214 games played for Tucker and 220 for Bichette. With that said, Bichette is a year younger than Tucker and also figures to command the shorter (and cheaper) deal of the two; MLBTR predicts an eight-year, $208MM deal for Bichette, while Tucker is predicted to land a $400MM deal across 11 years. Paying Bichette through his age-35 season certainly sounds more appealing than paying Tucker through his age-39 campaign in terms of the team’s long-term prospects. At the same time, Tucker would undoubtedly offer more near-term impact to a team that just came just a few outs within a World Series title and has already made it as clear as can be that they’re all-in on their current window.

There’s also the positional fit to consider. Bichette could either return to his shortstop position or take second, with Andres Gimenez taking the other middle infield spot. That would leave every other position player in a similar spot to 2025. Addison Barger and Davis Schneider both played some infield and some outfield while Ernie Clement played all around the infield.

If Tucker were signed, he would jump into an outfield mix with Springer, Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho. It would push Barger and Schneider more firmly into the infield and bump Nathan Lukes to the bench, unless someone were then traded.

Assuming the Blue Jays can only sign one of Bichette or Tucker, which one do MLBTR readers think would be a better fit for the organization? Would Bichette’s status as an anchor of the current team, consistency, and more affordable expected contract make him the better choice? Or does the immediate impact and big lefty bat Tucker offers outweigh those advantages? Or should they skip both and spend their money on relievers or a different bat? Have your say in the poll below:

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