The Diamondbacks are finalizing a contract with right-hander Merrill Kelly, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that it’s a two-year, $40MM pact. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds that the deal is pending a physical.
More to come.
The Mariners and Giants have emerged as front-runners in the sweepstakes for super-utility man Brendan Donovan, according to a report from Katie Woo of The Athletic. Woo added that both clubs are also engaged with the Diamondbacks on Ketel Marte.
Both Seattle and San Francisco have previously been reported to have interest in Donovan’s services, which Woo notes the Cardinals are seeking multiple top prospects in exchange for. With that being said, they were often mentioned as just two of many teams interested in the versatile infielder; Donovan’s market has been said to encompass more than half the league, with the Pirates, Royals, Guardians, and Astros standing among the other teams that have been connected to him this winter.
That makes the Mariners’ and Giants’ “front-runner” status a notable shift in the status quo, and Woo goes as far as to mention specific prospect names being discussed with both clubs. In talks with Seattle, Woo reports that the Cardinals have discussed top pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Lazaro Montes. The pair are Seattle’s #7 and #3 prospects, respectively, according to MLB Pipeline. In talks with the Giants, Woo writes that the names of infielder Gavin Kilen and southpaw Carson Whisenhunt have come up. Kilen is San Francisco’s #2 prospect per Pipeline, while Whisenhunt ranks #7.
Cijntje has garnered some buzz around the baseball industry due to his status as a switch pitcher who throws from both the right and left sides. He’s a more well-regarded pitcher from the right-hand side, touching the upper 90s with his right arm but being relegated to the low 90s with his left. In his pro debut in 2025, Cijntje pitched to a 3.99 ERA overall across the High-A and Double-A levels but actually got better after his promotion. In seven starts at Double-A, Cijntje turned in a 2.67 ERA across 33 2/3 innings of work with a 25.5% strikeout rate and an 11.0% walk rate.
Montes entered the 2025 season as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport but scuffled a bit after being promoted to the Double-A level. He hit a solid but unspectacular .213/.319/.433 in 64 games at the level with a 30.5% strikeout rate. That’s hardly exciting production, but some of those struggles can be forgiven considering he was one of just four hitters under the age of 21 to reach 200 plate appearances in the Texas League last year, joined by Sebastian Walcott, Walker Jenkins, and teammate Michael Arroyo.
Kilen was San Francisco’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft. As a result, he has just ten professional games under his belt where he hit a lackluster .205/.279/.282. With that said, the University of Tennessee product hit an incredible .357/.441/.671 in his final collegiate season and was roundly viewed as a plus contact hitter despite questions about his power potential and ability to handle shortstop at the big league level.
As for Whisenhunt, the 25-year-old already made his big league debut earlier this year with a 5.01 ERA across five starts. While it was hardly an exciting pro debut, Whisenhunt did manage to post a 4.41 ERA in 21 starts in Triple-A’s Pacific Coast League despite the extremely unfriendly environment for pitchers at that level. He profiles as a possible mid-rotation arm with a profile carried by a plus-plus changeup.
Of course, it’s possible that these are only a handful of prospects St. Louis is discussing with the two suitors. It should also be noted that Donovan is far from the only avenue either club is pursuing for their vacancy at second base. The Mariners had been in rather public pursuit of a reunion with Jorge Polanco until he signed with the Mets yesterday, but they’ve still be connected to Marte in addition to Donovan. Woo suggests that Polanco’s departure could leave the Mariners more motivated to make a deal in the coming days, and perhaps that could indicate that Seattle is the more aggressive suitor of the two.
Woo describes the Giants, by contrast, as “exploring all options” as they look to upgrade over Casey Schmitt and Tyler Fitzgerald at second base. In addition to Marte, Brandon Lowe is also known to be available on the trade market while teams have also inquired after Cubs infielder Nico Hoerner. The infield market in free agency is tilted more towards the left side, but Alex Bregman has expressed a willingness to play second base in the past, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim has experience at the position, and Bo Bichette has long been viewed as a potential candidate to move off shortstop at some point. San Francisco hasn’t been directly tied to any of those players, of course, but all stand out as at least plausible acquisitions to be made by a team searching for second base help.
The Dodgers have re-signed right-hander Nick Frasso to a minor league contract, per Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. Frasso was non-tendered by the club in November but now returns on a new deal.
The 27-year-old was a fourth round draft pick by the Blue Jays in 2020 and has not yet made his big-league debut. He was traded to the Dodgers in August 2022 and pitched the end of that season and most of 2023 in Double-A before reaching Triple-A in August 2023. In 93 innings across two levels in 2023, Frasso had a 3.77 ERA while striking out 26.8% of hitters and allowing just 0.38 home runs per nine innings. He was added to the 40-man roster in November 2023 and ranked as the Dodgers’ No. 2 prospect entering 2024, according to MLB.com. Unfortunately, Frasso underwent labrum surgery on his shoulder that same month, plus a clean-up procedure on his right hip. He ended up missing the entire 2024 season.
He returned to Triple-A in 2025 and posted diminished results. In 77 innings across 43 appearances (five starts), Frasso had a 5.49 ERA and struck out 19.7% of hitters while walking 12.1%. He also allowed 10 home runs after previously allowing no more than four in a season. Meanwhile, his average exit velocity allowed was 88.3 mph after sitting at 85.0 mph at Triple-A in 2023. Injuries have not been uncommon for Frasso. Before the two surgeries in 2024, he underwent an internal brace procedure in 2021 to fix a partially torn UCL. In 2025, he ended the year on the major league 60-day injured list with an undisclosed injury. The Dodgers non-tendered him on November 21.
Frasso’s prospect pedigree and solid stuff make him a decent, low-cost depth option. He averaged 94.6 mph on his four-seamer this year, using the pitch 53.5% of the time. He mixed in his changeup and upper-80s slider 26.2% and 19.5% of the time, respectively. Both the fastball and changeup have graded as plus pitches in the past. Altogether, Frasso has a 3.81 ERA in 229 career minor-league innings with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 0.6 HR/9 allowed. He has accrued just two days of big-league service time and has one option year remaining.
Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rabilas, Imagn Images
Dec 13: McCusker has signed a one-year contract with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Francys Romero of Beisbol FR.
Dec 10: The Twins have placed outfielder Carson McCusker on unconditional release waivers, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic. McCusker is expected to play in Asia next year, though no details have been provided about the specific country or team he is headed to. For the Twins, their 40-man roster count drops to 39, just hours before the Rule 5 draft. That means they could now be in position to make a selection in that draft.
McCusker, 28 in May, was a bit of a feel-good story for the Twins in 2025. He went undrafted out of college and wound up in indy ball in 2021 and 2022. The Twins then signed him and he worked his way up the ladder to the majors. He was sent up to the plate 30 times over 16 appearances. His .172/.200/.172 line was not impressive in that small sample but he was surely delighted just to make it to the show after not even being in affiliated ball a few years prior.
His minor league track record is greater in quantity and quality. From 2023 to 2025, he stepped to the plate 1,146 times across various levels of the farm. His 32.1% strikeout was quite high but he hit 55 home runs and slashed .265/.335/.494 for a wRC+ of 119.
If McCusker had stayed in with the Twins, he likely would have spent the majority of 2026 in the minors. Minnesota’s outfield mix currently consists of Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, James Outman, Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Hendry Mendez as well as infield/outfield types like Austin Martin, Kody Clemens and Ryan Kreidler. Prospect Walker Jenkins isn’t on the 40-man yet but has reached Triple-A and should be in the mix soon.
By heading overseas, he will presumably lock in a bigger guarantee and a more regular opportunity to showcase his abilities. If he succeeds in this new venture, he could parlay that into a return to North America or further opportunities in other leagues.
Photo courtesy of Matt Krohn, Imagn Images
Last month, the White Sox picked up their $20MM option on Luis Robert Jr. General manager Chris Getz signaled that the club planned on Robert being their starting center fielder in 2026. That has not stopped clubs from inquiring on his availability in trade talks, as Francys Romero of Beisbol FR reports that the Mets, Padres, and Pirates have expressed interest in acquiring Robert.
The 28-year-old batted .223/.297/.364 with an 84 wRC+ across 110 games for the White Sox this year. His first half was particularly brutal, as he only hit .185/.270/.313 with a 63 wRC+ in 70 games through June 25, when he incurred a left hamstring strain that would send him to the injured list a few days later. Robert was striking out in 30.9% of his plate appearances, only marginally improved from his 33.2% rate last year. He did have a 10.2% walk rate, but for the most part, he was continuing an offensive decline that started with an 84 wRC+ season in 2024.
His second half was a clear improvement. Robert returned from the IL on July 8 and batted .293/.349/.459 with a 124 wRC+ in his next 146 plate appearances. After experiencing poor batted ball luck in the first half of the season (.245 BABIP), he benefited from positive regression upon his return (.317 BABIP). He also dropped his strikeout rate to 16.4% in the second half, bringing that mark down to 26.0% on the season. His rebound was enough for the White Sox to hold onto Robert at the deadline, despite interest from several clubs. Unfortunately, he suffered another left hamstring strain and was placed on the IL in late August, which ultimately ended his season.
The end result was a season worth 1.3 WAR according to FanGraphs. Looking at the bigger picture, it’s clear that Robert has fallen from the height of his 2023 season, when he posted a 129 wRC+ and hit 38 home runs in a career-high 145 games while earning an All-Star nod. That was the fourth season of a six-year, $50MM extension that Robert had signed in January 2020, which was then a record for a player who had not yet debuted in the majors. Robert’s production from 2020-23 made it look like a good deal, but his drop-off in 2024-25 (second-half rebound notwithstanding) made the $20MM club option for 2026 look a lot more expensive.
In the end, the team picked up the option in lieu of paying Robert a $2MM buyout. On the surface, that $18MM net amount was a lot for an injury-prone player who had posted below-average offense for two years, especially for a rebuilding club. The move may have been motivated by the lack of standout center fielders in free agency. Trent Grisham had a strong year in 2025 but accepted the qualifying offer rather than test the market. Cody Bellinger is still available, but he is a corner outfielder at this stage of his career. Harrison Bader is an exceptional defender and will do well on a multi-year deal, although his career-best offensive showing in 2025 was partly the product of good batted ball fortune (.359).
The club is hoping that Robert will have a decent offensive showing in 2026, which would make him a solid trade candidate at next year’s deadline. Still, it’s not surprising to see teams doing their due diligence now, despite Getz’s earlier comments. Eight teams were interested in Robert at this year’s deadline, including the Mets and Padres. The Mets mostly used Tyrone Taylor in center in 2025, but he only posted a 70 wRC+ in 341 plate appearances. They attempted to upgrade by trading for Cedric Mullins, but he himself posted a 66 wRC+ in 143 plate appearances and departed for the Rays in free agency. The club has prospect Carson Benge knocking on the door. A trade for Robert would be affordable for a high-payroll club and would give them an everyday center fielder if they want to ease Benge into the majors.
The Padres and Pirates are more curious fits. The former has Jackson Merrill firmly entrenched in center. He is coming off a 3.0 fWAR season and signed an extension in April that will guarantee him $135MM through 2034. Robert could be an upgrade at DH, but that wouldn’t be the best use of him since he is still a solid defender, posting 7 OAA in center in 2025. RosterResource currently pegs San Diego for a $201MM payroll in 2026, compared to $211MM this year. Team chairman John Seidler recently indicated that the team will operate at around the same level of payroll. They would need the White Sox to cover at least half of Robert’s salary to facilitate an offseason trade, and that’s before leaving room for other additions.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have shown an increased willingness to spend this offseason. They made an $80MM offer to Josh Naylor and were willing to pay Kyle Schwarber $120-$125MM before he re-upped with the Phillies. That said, Robert is obviously not on the same level as Naylor or Schwarber. Pittsburgh also has Oneil Cruz under control through 2028. Like Robert, Cruz had a below-average offensive showing in 2025 (86 wRC+), but Cruz is much more affordable, with a projected $3.6MM salary in his first turn through arbitration compared to Robert’s guaranteed $20MM. Pittsburgh may just be doing their due diligence, though the likeliest outcome is that Robert stays put in Chicago through the offseason.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
After rebuffing an interview attempt from the Nationals, the Cubs have promoted Tyler Zombro to vice president of pitching, reports Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. After just one year in the front office, Zombro will now take on an expanded role in scouting, coaching, and player development.
Zombro joined the organization last season as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. He’d previously worked with Tread Athletics, a well-regarded training facility. Washington was chasing Zombro to be the club’s major league pitching coach, per Sharma. Instead of granting him permission to interview with the Nats, he was handed an expanded gig in Chicago.
Zombro spent six seasons as a minor league reliever, almost exclusively with Tampa Bay. His career was nearly cut short by a terrifying injury in 2021, when the righty was hit in the head by a line drive. The 104 mph batted ball fractured his skull and caused him to have a seizure on the mound. Zombro underwent brain surgery in July 2021. Incredibly, he briefly returned in 2022, but needed thoracic outlet syndrome surgery after two appearances. He latched on with the Rangers in 2023, pitching in a pair of games at Triple-A.
The Zombro promotion was underway even before the Cubs lost director of pitching Ryan Otero to the Red Sox, notes Sharma. Otero had spent nearly eight years in Chicago’s player development department. Boston hired him as a special assistant to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, whom he had worked with in Chicago.
The Cubs finished ninth in ERA last season. The bullpen was particularly strong, ranking fifth in xFIP and sixth in SIERA. Journeyman starter Brad Keller was a crucial part of the late-inning mix, putting together a dominant campaign in his first foray as a reliever. Chicago scooped up Keller as a minor league free agent in January. Zombro was credited for the move, per Sharma. Keller posted a sterling 2.07 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across 68 appearances. The righty has drawn widespread interest as a free agent, with some teams reportedly considering him as a starter.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
The Brewers are sending outfielder Isaac Collins and right-hander Nick Mears to the Royals, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Left-hander Angel Zerpa is heading to Milwaukee in the swap, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN.
Kansas City entered the offseason with a plan to add outfielders. The club made good on those intentions this week. After signing Lane Thomas on Friday, the Royals now add the switch-hitting Collins to the outfield mix. The cost is a controllable lefty reliever, though they get a bullpen piece back in return. Milwaukee clears some of its outfield glut while adding a hard-throwing reliever who is just now hitting arbitration.
The 28-year-old Collins went from relative obscurity to an integral part of Milwaukee’s offense last season. He made the team out of Spring Training and emerged as the club’s primary left fielder. Collins delivered a 122 wRC+ across 130 games. He finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, just behind teammate Caleb Durbin.
The Brewers were reportedly looking to move some of their outfield depth, with Collins and Blake Perkins mentioned as potential candidates. Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick are entrenched as everyday options, with Christian Yelich factoring in when he isn’t DHing. Collins, Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, and Brandon Lockridge were in the mix behind that trio. Milwaukee also added Akil Baddoo on a split deal.
Zerpa popped up in trade discussions last offseason, but ultimately remained in Kansas City. He reached 60 appearances for the second straight season, posting a 4.18 ERA over 64 2/3 innings. Zerpa pushed his solid ground ball rate to league-leading levels in 2025. He’d always been more of a grounder-getter than a strikeout guy, but his 63.7% ground ball rate ranked in the 99th percentile last season.
The 26-year-old Zerpa’s 3.97 career ERA doesn’t jump off the page, though his underlying numbers paint a better picture. The lefty posted a career-best 3.38 SIERA in 2025, bringing his career mark down to 3.67. He had a solid 3.50 xFIP this past year. Zerpa has recorded a BABIP above .320 in back-to-back seasons. His ground ball approach can lead to some batted ball variance, but that number could regress in future seasons.
Mears came to Milwaukee in a trade from Colorado in July 2024. He struggled mightily in his first partial season with the team, but provided solid results as a middle relief option in 2025. Mears faltered down the stretch, allowing five earned runs in five September appearances. He also missed time with back tightness that month. Mears tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings in the NLDS but was left off the NLCS roster.
Kansas City has been linked to several outfielders in the trade market, including Teoscar Hernandez, Jake Meyers, and Brendan Donovan. They were connected to Jarren Duran earlier today. Harrison Bader and Austin Hays have been mentioned as free agent possibilities for the Royals. They entered the offseason with an unproven group of Jac Caglianone, Kyle Isbel, and John Rave in the outfield, with Tyler Tolbert and Dairon Blanco as bench options.
Thomas and Collins aren’t Duran-level additions, but they’re improvements on the in-house choices. The former Brewer should help in particular against right-handed pitching. Collins slashed .280/.390/.415 over 295 plate appearances from the left side. He showed some power as a righty, but hit just .232 with a pedestrian .324 OBP. Thomas will likely grab playing time against lefty starters.
Zerpa is an intriguing fit in what projects to be a lefty-heavy bullpen. Milwaukee already has Jared Koenig and Aaron Ashby locked into leverage roles, with Rob Zastryzny in a middle relief gig and DL Hall as the long guy. Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe should soak up the majority of the save opportunities, with Koenig as the situational closer if multiple lefties are coming up. Zerpa might need one or two of those relievers to get dealt to factor into a late-inning job.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
The Cardinals are expected to sign right-hander Dustin May, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. May spent last season split between the Dodgers and Red Sox.
May was sent to Boston at the trade deadline for James Tibbs and Zach Ehrhard. After scuffling through 19 appearances with L.A., he battled injuries and poor performance with the Red Sox. May set career highs in innings (132 1/3) and games (25) last season, but posted an unsightly 4.96 ERA with an xFIP and SIERA in the mid-4.00s.
St. Louis was in desperate need of rotation depth after trading Sonny Gray to Boston and watching Miles Mikolas hit free agency. The club also lost swingman Steven Matz, who signed with Tampa Bay. May is set to join holdovers Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy in the rotation. May’s former teammate on the Red Sox, Richard Fitts, will likely be in the mix after coming over in the Gray trade. The Cardinals are considering converting Kyle Leahy into a starter to round out the staff.
The Dodgers spent a third-round pick on May in 2016. He emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in a system typically stocked with elite arms. May made his MLB debut in 2019, working largely out of the bullpen. He spent the majority of the shortened 2020 campaign in the rotation, making 10 starts. It would be the only time he would reach double-digit starts until this past season. Injuries capped May to just 20 games from 2021 to 2023. He missed all of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery.
May stayed healthy for the first time in 2025, making 19 appearances for the Dodgers. He stumbled to a 4.85 ERA over 104 innings. Despite the performance, May still netted LA an intriguing prospect in Tibbs, a first-round pick in 2024 (by San Francisco). The veteran righty made just six appearances with the Red Sox before right elbow neuritis cut his season short.
The Cardinals are betting on May pairing the flashes of solid production he’s shown in prior seasons with the improved health from 2025. The 28-year-old recorded a sub-3.00 ERA in 2020, 2022, and 2023, albeit in abbreviated campaigns. While he did go down with the elbow issue in September, he still destroyed his previous career bests in terms of workload. May had totaled 101 innings over four seasons before putting up 132 1/3 frames last year. It was the first time in his six-year career that May showed the ability to stay on the mound for any kind of extended stretch.
May has a perplexing pitching profile. He has a GIF-worthy arsenal headlined by a high-spin sweeper and a fastball in the mid to upper-90s. Oddly, the repertoire hasn’t generated whiffs or strikeouts for much of his career. May spiked a 37.6% strikeout rate over five games in 2021, but he’s been at best an average strikeout pitcher in every other season. He posted a middling 21.1% mark between L.A. and Boston last year. May has a modest 8.8% swinging-strike rate for his career. None of his five pitches has a standout whiff rate.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report that the contract was for one year. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo was first to note the deal included a club option for 2027.
Photo courtesy of Paul Rutherford, Imagn Images
The Cardinals have been getting a lot of calls about left-hander JoJo Romero, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Yankees are one of the teams showing interest. The Mariners were the only other team publicly known to be in on Romero, though it isn’t known if Seattle is still involved now that Jose A. Ferrer has been acquired from the Nationals.
Romero is projected to earn $4.4MM in 2026, which is his final season of arbitration control before free agency. With the Cardinals in rebuild mode, Romero is a logical trade candidate, and moving him now rather than at the trade deadline allows St. Louis to both land a larger return and avoid the risk of an in-season injury to the 29-year-old southpaw.
From New York’s perspective, Devin Williams and Mark Leiter Jr. have both departed in free agency, and Luke Weaver is still on the open market. Ryan Yarbrough was re-signed to add more left-handed depth to the pen, though Yarbrough is more of a swingman than a true reliever. Veteran Tim Hill is expected to hold down one lefty spot in the relief corps, and Brent Headrick and Jayvien Sandridge are other left-handers on the 40-man roster.
There’s certainly room here for the Yankees to add some left-handed experience to the mix, and Romero would be a nice fit after three seasons of success in the Cardinals’ bullpen. Romero began his career in the Phillies organization but didn’t start putting things together until he landed in St. Louis as the return in the trade deadline swap that brought Edmundo Sosa to Philadelphia in 2022.
Romero has a 2.93 ERA over 156 2/3 innings for the Cards since Opening Day 2023, and his ERA has gotten progressively better in each season. His sparkling 2.07 ERA over 61 innings in 2025 was the highlight, though a 4.10 SIERA reflects Romero’s lack of strikeouts and his mediocre 11.4% walk rate. The latter number was by far Romero’s highest over his three seasons with the Cards, and is something of an ominous callback to the control problems that clouded his time with the Phillies.
Still, Romero’s bread-and-butter is inducing grounders and soft contact. Romero has a 53.7% grounder rate over his MLB career, and his 35.1% hard-hit ball rate in 2025 was a personal best over a full season. While his homer rate has been known to fluctuate, Romero did a great job of keeping the ball in the park last year, with just two homers allowed over his 60 frames. Romero’s 22.8% career strikeout rate is respectable enough that Romero isn’t a complete groundball specialist, even if he doesn’t miss a ton of bats.
Some teams may balk at the lack of strikeouts, but overall, it makes sense that there’s broad interest in an inexpensive left-handed reliever with Romero’s track record for leverage work. That said, it isn’t a lock that Romero will be dealt, as Goold writes that the Cardinals themselves are looking for experienced relief help in their bullpen. If none can be found in free agency or on the trade market, it is possible St. Louis might just stick with Romero in lieu of a particularly attractive trade offer, and perhaps wait until the season begins to restart trade talks. Or, if the Cardinals land another veteran reliever sooner rather than later, the Cards might feel secure enough to start more readily shopping Romero.
TODAY: Rogers’ 2029 option will vest for a $12MM guarantee if he pitches in either 110 games over the 2027-28 seasons, or 60 games in 2028, Rosenthal reports.
DECEMBER 12: The Blue Jays are in agreement with free agent reliever Tyler Rogers on a three-year, $37MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal, which is pending a physical, includes an $11MM vesting option for the 2029 season, specifics of which have not been reported. Toronto has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move. Rogers is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.
Rogers, who’ll celebrate his 35th birthday next week, secures a sizable payday to pitch at the back of the Toronto bullpen. One of the sport’s most distinctive pitchers, Rogers is a soft-tossing submariner who bided his time awaiting an MLB opportunity. He was a 10th-round pick by the Giants in 2013 who signed for $7,500 after his senior season at Austin Peay State University. Rogers spent the next six years in the minor leagues, performing well all the way up through Triple-A but without the raw stuff to get the attention of the big league club.
It wasn’t until the end of Rogers’ third full season in Triple-A that he received an MLB look. He was nearing his 29th birthday and close to calling it quits to pursue a career as a firefighter (as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area covered in 2020). The Giants finally gave him an opportunity at the end of the ’19 season. Rogers tossed 17 2/3 innings of three-run ball to hold his roster spot. He broke camp the following year and has never gone back down to the minors — not even on a rehab stint.
Rogers has played six-plus seasons in the big leagues without going on the injured list. While there’s obviously some luck involved in avoiding any fluke injuries, it’s clear that his underhand delivery puts less stress on his arm. Rogers has made 403 appearances since the start of the 2020 season. That’s 30 more than any other pitcher. Most of those outings have come in high-leverage situations, as his arm angle continues to flummox hitters.
After posting a 4.50 earned run average as a rookie, Rogers has turned in a 3.04 mark or better in four of the past five seasons. He ranks near the bottom of the league in whiffs and has never posted a league average strikeout rate. That’s to be expected for a pitcher who throws an 82-83 MPH sinker and a sweeping breaking ball that clocks in around 74 MPH. It’s a profile designed for weak, ground-ball contact. Rogers gets that year after year, and he almost never puts batters on via base on balls.
While some pitchers with extremely low arm slots can struggle with opposite-handed batters, that hasn’t been an issue for Rogers. He has held lefties to a .235/.289/.336 line in 776 career plate appearances. Right-handed hitters haven’t fared much better, turning in .246/.282/.350 mark in nearly 1000 trips to the plate.
Rogers has spent the bulk of his career in San Francisco, including a two-year stretch where he overlapped with twin brother Taylor Rogers. The Giants fell out of contention shortly before the trade deadline and flipped the impending free agent to the Mets for middle reliever José Buttó and prospects Blade Tidwell and Drew Gilbert. Rogers continued churning out results in his new home, pitching 27 1/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball. He finished the season with a career-best 1.98 earned run average behind a 62.1% grounder rate while leading MLB with 81 appearances.
The Mets unsurprisingly wanted Rogers back, but they balked at what turned out to be a surprisingly lucrative contract. He more than doubled MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18MM deal. New York has also seen Edwin Díaz, Gregory Soto and Ryan Helsley sign elsewhere. They’ve added Devin Williams to close but will need to find multiple setup arms from the right side.
That’s the role Rogers should continue to fill with the Jays. Toronto was open to supplanting Jeff Hoffman in the ninth inning, but they didn’t come away with any of Díaz, Raisel Iglesias or Robert Suarez. Rogers had a brief run as San Francisco’s closer in 2021 but has otherwise been a setup man. He was fourth in MLB with 32 holds this past season and handily leads the majors in that category over the last six years. Rogers joins Louis Varland as the top leverage arms in front of Hoffman.
The Jays could still look to add a better left-hander than Brendon Little, but Rogers becomes the fifth member of their projected bullpen who cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. Hoffman, Yimi García and Eric Lauer all have the five-plus years of service time to refuse any minor league assignment. Tommy Nance is out of options. Varland can be optioned but certainly isn’t in jeopardy of being sent down. If the Jays have all six starters healthy going into the season, that’d leave only one spot for Little or another left-handed acquisition. That’s to say nothing of the out-of-options Justin Bruihl and Rule 5 picks Angel Bastardo and Spencer Miles — all of whom have an uphill battle to stick on the roster.
Those are secondary considerations for an all-in Toronto team. The $12.333MM average annual value pushes their estimated luxury tax number to $294MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s already easily a franchise high before considering the possibility that they add Kyle Tucker or bring back Bo Bichette.
That’ll be their second straight season paying the competitive balance tax. They’re hit with a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM and taxed at a 75% rate from $284MM to $304MM. Any spending above the final threshold comes with a 90% penalty. The Rogers deal will come with an approximate $8-9MM tax bill. It also firmly pushes them beyond the $284MM mark at which their top pick in the 2027 draft is moved back by 10 spots (though that was basically inevitable after the Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce signings).
It’s a significant investment in a 35-year-old reliever. The Braves also went to three years, at $15MM annually, to sign Suarez on Thursday. That was the first three-year contract for a reliever that age since 2020. There hadn’t been a three-year term at more than $10MM per season for a 35-year-old bullpen arm since Mariano Rivera almost two decades ago. A closer who sits around 99 MPH, Suarez breaking that precedent wasn’t as surprising. The Jays are betting on Rogers’ unconventional style to age equally well.
Image courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images.
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