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Phillies Interested In Bo Bichette

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Free agent infielder Bo Bichette has thus far drawn interest from the Blue Jays and Red Sox. The Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers have also checked in on his market. Now, Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that the Phillies are among the big-market suitors for Bichette.

Philadelphia’s biggest offseason move has been the re-signing of Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150MM contract. Outside of that, the team has added Adolis Garcia to the outfield mix on a one-year deal. They also retooled the bullpen by trading away Matt Strahm, acquiring Kyle Backhus, and signing Brad Keller and Zach Pop. Last month, it was reported that the club is looking for a righty platoon bat and some rotation depth, as well as a reunion with J.T. Realmuto. In contrast, the infield hasn’t been mentioned as a target for an upgrade, so it’s possible that the Phillies are just doing due diligence on Bichette.

The club has Trea Turner entrenched at shortstop. The 32-year-old continues to perform at a high level. In 2025, he batted .304/.355/.457 in 141 games with a 125 wRC+ that was sixth-best among qualified shortstops. He also lowered his strikeout rate to just 16.7% and hit 15 home runs while stealing 36 bases. Crucially, after two seasons of below-average defense, Turner was worth 2 Defensive Runs Saved as well as 16 Outs Above Average in 2025, the latter ranking fourth among qualified shortstops. That stands in stark contrast to Bichette, who was worth -12 DRS and -13 OAA for the Blue Jays this year.

The presence of Turner makes the Phillies less of an obvious fit for Bichette the shortstop. With Schwarber taking the DH slot, Bichette would need to play second or third base if he were to sign. The keystone is the more likely outcome, with Bichette telling interested teams that he is willing to play there. He notably played five games at second base during the World Series, with Andres Gimenez covering shortstop. Before that, Bichette had only spent 262 1/3 innings at the keystone in his career, all in the minor leagues.

Statcast takes an unfavorable view of Bichette’s arm strength (36th percentile) and sprint speed (21st percentile). A move to second base would allow him to make shorter throws and limit his exposure to batted balls from right-handed hitters, with which he has historically struggled. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ incumbent second baseman is Bryson Stott. His 2025 batting line of .257/.328/.391 was league average by wRC+. On defense, he was seen as average (0 DRS) to positive (7 OAA). Altogether, he was worth 3.1 fWAR this year, which was sixth among qualified second basemen.

Signing Bichette to play second might force Stott to the hot corner, where has only played 15 big-league innings. That could still be a good defensive alignment of the two. Whereas Bichette struggles against batted balls by right-handed hitters, Stott was worth an equal 4 OAA against right-handed and left-handed batters in 2025. Slotting him at third base to accommodate Bichette wouldn’t be a perfect fit, given Stott’s below-average arm strength. Still, his better performance against batted balls by righties, as well as his plus range and sprint speed, could help him adapt to the hot corner better than Bichette could.

An alignment of Stott at third, Turner at short, and Bichette at second would leave Alec Bohm without a regular position. Bohm batted .287/.331/.409 with a 105 wRC+ in 120 games this year as the Phillies’ primary third baseman. That’s certainly not terrible, but it was a drop-off from his 113 wRC+ in 2024. He also declined on defense, dropping from 4 OAA in 2024 to -2 OAA this year. Bohm is entering his last year of team control and is projected for a $10.3MM salary in arbitration, which makes him a potential trade candidate. Indeed, back in October, 69.72% of MLBTR readers believed the Phillies would trade him.

It remains to be seen whether the Phillies are seriously interested in Bichette or just doing their due diligence. That said, if they were to sign him and trade Bohm, they’d be upgrading their offense and potentially their infield defense. We at MLBTR ranked Bichette at No. 2 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, projecting an eight-year, $208MM deal. Adding that $26MM annual salary while subtracting Bohm’s $10.3MM would bring the team’s 2026 payroll to just under $281MM, according to RosterResource. That would leave about $10MM for a reunion with Realmuto and other additions, assuming the team matches its 2025 payroll of $291MM.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Poll: How Can The Rockies Best Improve Their Starting Pitching?

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The Rockies are coming off a 119-loss season, which stands as one of the worst seasons in modern baseball history. The team’s starting pitching was a key factor in that poor performance. In 2025, Rockies starters had a 6.65 ERA, a league-worst 7.4% K-BB rate, and allowed a league-worst 1.79 HR/9. It is therefore unsurprising that Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta identified the rotation as “an era of focus” for his newly-hired front office.

“We would like to add some stability to the rotation,” said DePodesta in a phone interview with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. “I think that’s obvious … given our current situation.” He went on to say that the team will consider trading from their bullpen and outfield depth to acquire starters, while also counting on improvement from existing starters. Referring to his coaching staff, DePodesta said, “Given the sheer manpower we have allocated to the pitching side, there’s definitely room for improvement with the players we have.”

The comments come across as generic boilerplate. As is well-known, Rockies pitchers have the challenge of playing half the season at high altitude. Dating back to 2021, the club’s starters have posted a league-worst 5.60 ERA and 28.3 fWAR, including a mere 1.5 fWAR in 2025. Its top starters this year by innings pitched were Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, and Antonio Senzatela. Freeland was once an above-average starter but logged a 4.98 ERA in 162 2/3 innings this year, including a 5.75 mark at home. Though he remains onboard as the nominal “ace,” he will play 2026 at age 33 and is unlikely to recover his old form.

Márquez had a nightmarish 6.70 ERA in 126 1/3 innings in 2025, with a well-below-average strikeout rate of 14.0%. He is now a free agent and unlikely to be re-signed. Meanwhile, Senzatela’s 11.8% strikeout rate was a career-low. He was demoted to the bullpen for the last month of the year and won’t be guaranteed a rotation spot in 2026. Chase Dollander and Tanner Gordon were the only other Rockies starters to reach 60 innings this year, and they both had ERAs in the mid-6.00s and struggled with the long ball.

Given those struggles, it’s hardly a surprise that DePodesta wants to make upgrades. Of course, that’s easier said than done. Colorado is an unlikely destination for free agent starters who do not want to see their stats decline from pitching at Coors. Indeed, the only major-league free agent starting pitchers to sign with the Rockies since 2021 are Chad Kuhl, José Ureña, and Dakota Hudson. All three signed for one year and were reclamation projects at best. Ureña, whose $3.5MM contract in November 2022 was the highest value of the bunch, only made five starts for the Rockies in 2023 before being released that April.

The team faces a similar problem in attempting to add starting pitchers via trade. Potential partners can use the Rockies’ home-field disadvantage and need for pitching to gain leverage in trade talks. Dating back to 2021, most of the Rockies’ starting pitching acquisitions have been low-level trades and cash transactions. Arguably the highest-profile acquisition was that of Cal Quantrill in November 2024. He threw 186 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA for the Guardians in 2023 but struggled badly in 2024 and was recently designated for assignment when he came to Colorado. With a disadvantage in trade talks, the club is forced to lean heavily on internal options for starting pitching.

While teams obviously want to get all the value they can from their existing players, the current rotation led by Freeland doesn’t inspire much confidence. For his part, DePodesta expressed confidence in his new pitching coaches, but also acknowledged that internal improvement is only part of the equation. A trade involving outfielders or relievers might be difficult to pull off. Center fielder Brenton Doyle is unlikely to be traded, while top relievers Jimmy Herget and Juan Mejia were good in 2025 but have minimal track records otherwise. The team could give young lefty Carson Palmquist a bigger look, but he struggled badly with control and home runs in his debut this year. Meanwhile, the Rockies have two prospects among MLB.com’s Top 100 list, neither of whom are pitchers.

What do you think is the best way for the Rockies to improve their starting pitching? Let us know in the poll below:

Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

Twins Sign Orlando Arcia To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have signed infielder Orlando Arcia to a minors contract, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  The deal presumably includes an invitation for Arcia to attend Minnesota’s Major League spring camp.

Arcia is now a veteran of 10 Major League seasons, after amassing 214 plate appearances over 76 games with the Braves and Rockies in 2025.  The majority (62 games) of that work came in Colorado, after Atlanta released Arcia in May and the Rockies quickly moved in to bring Arcia aboard on a big league contract.  While Arcia has never been known for his bat, he hit only .202/.238/.291 over those 214 PA.  His 33 wRC+ was both a career low and the second-lowest of any player who took at least 200 trips to the plate in 2025.

Once an excellent defensive shortstop back in his time with the Brewers, Arcia’s glovework has declined to just passable levels, and he played at all four infield positions in Colorado (including his first bit of MLB work at first base).  Becoming a full-fledged utilityman is probably Arcia’s best ticket to sticking in the majors as a versatile backup off the Twins’ bench.

For the shortstop job in particular, Arcia provides some cover if presumptive starter Brooks Lee struggles, but Minnesota is naturally going to give a former top prospect like Lee plenty of rope.  If Arcia doesn’t break camp with the Twins and sticks around in the minors, he’ll be far and away the most veteran member of a farm system that is lacking in big league experience.

Blue Jays Sign Kazuma Okamoto

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The Blue Jays have finally made a big strike in the Japanese market, as Toronto has signed infielder Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60MM contract.  It is a straight four-year deal without any opt-outs.  The contract breaks down as a $5MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for Okamoto in 2026, and then $16MM in each of the deal’s final three years.  Okamoto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Okamoto’s 45-day posting window was set to expire tomorrow at 4pm CT, so it was expected that the infielder would settle on his first Major League team today and finalize the agreement (i.e. complete a physical) before Sunday’s deadline.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Okamoto 19th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and our projection of a four-year, $64MM deal was just slightly above what Okamoto landed from the Jays.

Matching financial expectations is no small feat, given how Tatsuya Imai (three years/$54MM guarantee from the Astros with two opt-out clauses) and Munetaka Murakami (two years, $34MM from the White Sox) both had to settle for shorter-term deals in their trips through the posting window this winter.  Evaluators and scouts didn’t quite view Okamoto, Imai, and Murakami in the same tier as other big-ticket NPB arrivals from past seasons, though Okamoto perhaps had fewer red flags, resulting in his nice payday.

Okamoto’s contract also translates to a $10.875MM posting fee for the Yomiuri Giants, the infielder’s now-former NPB team.  As per the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, the NPB team’s fee is 20% of the first $25MM of a player’s guaranteed MLB contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending.

It was a little under a month ago that Toronto was first linked to Okamoto, and the 29-year-old now projects to be the Jays’ regular third baseman.  Okamoto also has experience playing first base (making him an overqualified backup option to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) and in the outfield, so he joins Addison Barger and Davis Schneider as Blue Jays players who can contribute in both infield and outfield roles.

For Barger in particular, it now seems like he’ll platoon with Okamoto at third base, while playing in the corner outfield when he isn’t at the hot corner.  This could bump Ernie Clement into primarily a second base role, with Andres Gimenez expected to move from second base to an everyday shortstop role.  The right-handed hitting Clement can also spell the lefty-swinging Gimenez at shortstop when a southpaw is on the mound, with Schneider (another righty bat) moving to second base in those circumstances.

All of these moving pieces don’t even factor in the possibility that Bo Bichette could still re-sign with the Blue Jays, even with Okamoto now in the fold.  If Bichette returns to an everyday role at either shortstop or (perhaps more likely) second base, Barger or Okamoto could see more time in the outfield.  On the flip side, if the Blue Jays were to land another rumored target in outfielder Kyle Tucker, Toronto would then likely have to trade from a crowded outfield mix that would include Tucker, Daulton Varsho, George Springer and Anthony Santander splitting DH duty and one corner outfield slot, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, and Okamoto, Barger, and Schneider all available in a part-time outfield capacity.

However things play out, it adds to what has already been a fascinating offseason for a Blue Jays team that came within two outs of winning Game 7 of the World Series.  The team’s efforts to add the final piece of the puzzle have mostly focused on pitching to date, with Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce signed to reinforce the rotation, and Tyler Rogers added to the relief corps.

Bichette and Tucker have naturally dominated the rumor mill when it came to possible lineup additions, and players like Cody Bellinger, Ketel Marte, Alex Bregman, and Yoan Moncada were also reportedly on Toronto’s radar.  The Okamoto signing probably closes the door on Bregman and Moncada specifically since the two are third basemen, unless the Jays made the curious decision of using Okamoto primarily as a corner outfielder.

Okamoto’s third base defense was strong enough to earn Golden Glove awards when playing with Yomiuri Giants in 2021-22, though he has played an increased amount at first base in the last three years.  Scouts generally view Okamoto as at least a decent defensive third baseman at the MLB level, and his ability to also capably handle first base and left field adds to his versatility around the diamond.

Moreso than his glovework, however, Okamoto’s biggest plus is his bat.  One of the top hitters in Japan for most of the last decade, Okamoto has hit .277/.361/.521 with 248 home runs over 4494 plate appearances with the Giants.  He had a run of six straight seasons of 30+ homers from 2018-23 before dropping to 27 long balls in 2024, and he hit 15 homers with a .322/.411/.581 slash line over 314 PA in 2025 in a season interrupted by an elbow injury that cost Okamoto roughly three months of the NPB campaign.

A six-time NPB All-Star and a member of Japan’s World Baseball Classic-winning team in 2023, Okamoto is known for his ability to generate power while still making a lot of hard contact without many strikeouts.  This approach fits right into the offensive gameplan that worked so well for the Jays in 2025.  Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins drew raves for his work in helping several Toronto hitters break out last season, and he could certainly aid Okamoto in making a smooth transition to MLB, perhaps particularly when it comes to adjusting to higher-velocity pitching.  As noted by Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Okamoto has been inconsistent against higher-velo (94mph+) pitches, but he already showed improvement in this department in 2025.

The signing also represents a breakthrough for the Jays in their efforts to land a high-profile Japanese star.  The Blue Jays’ attempts to sign Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki during the previous two offseasons were all thwarted by the Dodgers, which added some extra sting when all three players (particularly World Series MVP Yamamoto) contributed heavily to Los Angeles’ narrow win over the Jays in the Fall Classic.

While the Dodgers weren’t publicly known to be in on Okamoto, such teams as the Red Sox, Pirates, Cubs, Angels, Mariners, and Padres were all linked to his market.  Earlier this afternoon, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicated that San Diego “could be the frontrunner,” but instead it was Toronto who ended up sealing the deal.

Okamoto’s $60MM contract represents another big expenditure for a Blue Jays organization that has already taken spending to team-record heights in recent years, and now put the club in the upper echelons of league-wide spending.  RosterResource estimates a $286MM payroll for the Jays in 2026, and a luxury tax number of around $308.8MM.

This puts Toronto over the highest tax threshold of $304MM, meaning the team will again see their first-round pick in the 2027 draft dropped back 10 places, plus a 110% surcharge on any further spending.  It’s clear that the Jays and Rogers Communications (the team’s ownership group) are ready to flex their financial muscle more than ever in pursuit of a World Series banner, so more splurges on Bichette or Tucker can’t be ruled out.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report the signing, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the contract’s length and value.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand added the details about the $5MM signing bonus and the lack of opt-outs, and the Associated Press had the annual salary breakdown.

Kona Takahashi To Return To NPB For 2026 Season

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2:20PM: Feinsand reports that Takahashi had offers from three Major League clubs.  7 News Boston’s Ari Alexander heard during the Winter Meetings that the Astros were interested in Takahashi, but it isn’t known if Houston was one of the teams who made the righty a formal offer.

1:30PM: Kona Takahashi’s 45-day posting window for finding a contract with MLB teams closes tomorrow, but The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the right-hander will instead return to Japan and the Seibu Lions.

There wasn’t much buzz about Takahashi’s bid to join a big league team, and reports began to emerge a few days ago that returning to Nippon Professional Baseball was a distinct possibility for the 28-year-old.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy reported that Takahashi received just one offer from a Major League team, and it apparently wasn’t enticing enough for the righty to make the jump.

Takahashi doesn’t yet qualify for full international free agency.  Feinsand and Murphy suggested that he could pursue a multi-year deal with the Lions that includes an opt-out clause next winter, so Takahashi could freely pursue another contract with a Major League team.  Sammon writes that Takahashi and the Lions are indeed discussing such a contract — though the Lions still control Takahashi’s rights, the club was already willing to post him this offseason, so a longer-term deal with opt-outs somewhat formalizes the situation.  It does mean that the Lions wouldn’t be able to receive a posting fee, which would’ve been 20% of any contract worth $25MM of less in guaranteed money.

The general expectation was that Takahashi’s foray into the posting system was going to result in a low-level guarantee at best, or perhaps even a contract without any guaranteed money.  Takahashi has a solid 3.39 ERA over 1199 career innings with the Lions, and achieved success by inducing grounders at roughly a 50 percent rate and limiting walks.  The big red flag for MLB scouts was undoubtedly Takahashi’s lackluster 17.17% career strikeout rate.

It might take a particularly strong 2026 NPB season for Takahashi to elevate his stock in the eyes of big league scouts, but he’ll still be relatively young (turning 30 in February 2027) in advance of what would be his first MLB campaign.  With another year of good results and eating innings, Takahashi might draw more attention as a back-end rotation arm or perhaps as a multi-inning reliever next winter, should he end up opting out of his next contract.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Mark P

  • Earlier edition of The Weekend Chat this time, but hopefully with no shortage of questions and hot takes filing in from our readers.  Let’s see what’s up….

Luca

  • Are the Rays still in on Ketel Marte? Anyone else there targeting?

Mark P

  • In all likelihood, the Rays are targeting players much less expensive than Marte.  He’d be a huge help for their lineup, of course, but with a remaining price tag that wouldn’t seem to fit Tampa’s budget.

    Hindsight being 50-50, if the Rays had exercised Fairbanks’ option, I wonder if he might’ve been part of a hypothetical Marte trade package — both as salary offset, and because Arizona needs ninth-inning help

Kwallington

  • Has the Cardinals trade stuff stalled? It’s been a while since any updates.

Mark P

  • Not surprising that things slowed down over the holidays.  The Cards have already moved Gray and Contreras, leaving Arenado as the last big contract remaining, and Donovan/JoJo/maybe Gorman or Nootbaar as less-expensive but more sought-after trade chips.
  • The Cardinals certainly aren’t done with their swaps yet, and it feels like Donovan, Romero, and Arenado will all be elsewhere by Opening Day

Cj james

  • The Braves should worry about the bullpen more than the starters. Do you agree?

Mark P

  • Probably, though Suarez and the re-signed Iglesias solve a couple of big question marks.

Steve

  • Who is more likely to be in a different uniform next year, Duran or Casas?

Mark P

  • Casas

Read more

Mariners Involved In Kazuma Okamoto’s Market

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Kazuma Okamoto’s posting window closes at 4pm CT on Sunday, and there isn’t yet any sense where the Japanese star might sign even as his deadline nears.  Such teams as the Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Pirates, and Padres have reportedly shown some interest in Okamoto’s services, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds the Mariners to this list of clubs “connected to” the chase for the 29-year-old.

Signing Okamoto would represent an interesting pivot for Seattle, as the Mariners have been focusing more on second base as the target spot for an infield upgrade.  The M’s want to see what they have in such third base candidates as top prospect Colt Emerson, or other youngsters like Cole Young and Ben Williamson.

Former Mariner Eugenio Suarez has been pretty much the only third baseman on Seattle’s radar, and even if Suarez did re-sign with the team, it seems likely that Suarez would get a healthy dose of usage as designated hitter rather than an everyday assignment at the hot corner.  Trade target Brendan Donovan also has some experience as a third baseman, but Donovan’s versatility makes him a candidate to be used all over the diamond, and second base would probably be his most frequent position if the M’s did manage to pry him away from the Cardinals.

While Okamoto has spent a lot of his career at the hot corner, however, he is more of a corner infielder than a true third baseman.  During his time with the Yomiuri Giants, Okamoto logged 662 games played at third base and 478 games at first base.  He also made 77 appearances in the outfield, so a Major League team might be open to using Okamoto as an occasional left fielder, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon recently noted.

Seattle has Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena lined up for everyday work at first base and left field, respectively, but Okamoto could get some work at those positions if Naylor or Arozarena are receiving a DH day or a full off-day.  Arozarena is also a free agent after the 2026 season, so any playing time for Okamoto in left field could be viewed as a potential audition to see if he could be a longer-term fit going forward.

If Okamoto can deliver anything close to his NPB numbers, he would be a terrific addition to the Mariners’ (or any team’s) lineup.  Okamoto has a .277/.361/.521 slash line and 248 homers over 4494 plate appearances with the Giants, and his outstanding resume includes six NPB All-Star nods, two NPB Golden Gloves, and a gold medal as a member of Japan’s winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Okamoto 19th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and predicted a four-year, $64MM contract.  Given how Tatsuya Imai and Munetaka Murakami both had to settle for contracts far below ours and others’ projections, it certainly seems possible that Okamoto might also sign for a lower price tag than expected.  This opens the door for the Mariners or any number of other suitors to get involved.

A “bet on yourself” type of short-term contract with opt-out clauses could appeal to the Mariners, with some extra financial outlay possibly being preferable to meeting a high demand for a player like Donovan or Ketel Marte.  Seattle would seemingly have particular appeal to Okamoto, given how the M’s seem poised to contend again in 2026, and the Mariners’ long history of welcoming Japanese players.

Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

The Rockies’ Outfield Trade Possibilities

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The Rockies have yet to make any significant moves since Paul DePodesta assumed control of baseball operations two months ago. They’re one of two teams that has yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. Unlike the Red Sox (the other team for which that’s the case), Colorado hasn’t done much via trade either. Their only moves on the trade front were to acquire lefty reliever Brennan Bernardino from Boston and to deal former first-round pick Ryan Rolison away for cash.

A quiet offseason was always to be expected for a new executive working with one of the worst rosters in MLB history. The Rox aren’t going to invest much in the 2026 team. They don’t have many productive veterans to dangle on the trade market. The exception might be in the outfield, as DePodesta hinted that he could subtract from that area to try to add controllable pitching.

Let’s look at the possibilities.

Brenton Doyle

Doyle probably has the highest ceiling of Colorado’s outfielders. He may also be the least likely to move. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that the Rox were reluctant to sell low on the 27-year-old center fielder. Doyle is under arbitration control for four seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary.

A stellar defensive player, Doyle has been a target for teams looking for help in a thin center fielder market. The question is whether he’s capable of providing anything at the plate. Doyle looked to have taken a step forward in 2024. He hit 23 homers while cutting his strikeout rate nearly 10 percentage points from his 35% mark as a rookie. The bat dramatically regressed last year, as he stumbled to a .233/.274/.376 line with 15 homers. He kept his strikeout rate around 25% but hit more ground balls and made less of a power impact than he had the previous year.

Mickey Moniak

Moniak is coming off his best year at the plate. Signed to a $1.25MM contract after being released by the Angels in Spring Training, the lefty hitter popped a career-high 24 homers for Colorado. He batted .270/.306/.518 across 461 trips to the dish. Moniak made hard contact (a 95 MPH+ exit velocity) on 45% of his balls in play, easily the best mark of his six MLB seasons.

The surface numbers would seem to make the former first overall pick a strong trade chip for a rebuilding team. The underlying splits aren’t so flattering. Moniak did the vast majority of his damage at Coors Field, where he hit .303/.348/.598 with 15 longballs. His .230/.255/.425 slash away from Denver is a lot less encouraging. Moniak’s rate stats are inflated by his usage, as the Rox shielded him to 60 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

There was also a dramatic dip in Moniak’s defensive grades. He had graded as a solid, albeit not exceptional, defender who could handle all three outfield spots with the Angels. His numbers in Colorado were well below average no matter where he played. Moniak remains a plus runner with an average arm, so the tools are there to be a competent defender, but it’s another question for interested clubs.

Moniak has between four and five years of service time. He’s controllable through 2027 and projected for a $4.2MM arbitration salary.

Tyler Freeman

Colorado landed Freeman in last offseason’s Nolan Jones trade with the Guardians. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each graded him around a win below replacement level in his first year in Colorado. However, he showed more or less the same profile he had in Cleveland that made him a trade target for the Rox a year ago.

Freeman hit .281/.354/.361 while striking out in fewer than 12% of his 428 plate appearances. He was easily the team’s most consistent on-base threat. The 26-year-old has zero power but he puts the ball in play and has plus speed. As was the case with Moniak, Freeman’s WAR was depressed by dreadful defensive metrics that don’t fully align with his athleticism and arm strength.

A team that views the defensive grades as a one-year blip could still be in on Freeman as a utility piece for whom they’re willing to swap a depth arm. He’s controllable for three seasons with a $1.8MM arbitration projection and has a minor league option remaining.

Jordan Beck

A supplemental first-round pick in 2022, Beck got his first look at MLB pitching two years later. He had a rough go as a rookie, striking out at a 35% clip while hitting .188 over his first 55 games. His sophomore season was more promising. Beck spent a couple weeks in Triple-A in April but was otherwise on the MLB roster for the entire season. He worked as Colorado’s primary left fielder and put up decent counting stats. Beck hit 16 home runs, 27 doubles, and five triples while stealing 19 bases.

Beck’s .258/.317/.416 batting line was worse than league average after accounting for Coors Field. He whiffed on nearly 30% of his swings and struggled down the stretch, hitting .250/.316/.377 with a 32% strikeout rate after the All-Star Break. Beck’s physical tools are intriguing. He has above-average bat speed, runs well, and has a strong arm. The approach and pure hitting ability have been questions dating back to his college days, though, and the Rockies are probably better holding onto him to see if he makes any strides at age 25.

Yanquiel Fernández/Zac Veen

Veen and Fernández are left-handed hitting corner outfielders who once ranked among the top offensive prospects in the Colorado system. Both players hit well in the low minors but have seemingly plateaued against upper level pitching. Neither has any kind of MLB track record. Veen has only played in 12 big league games. Fernández hit .225/.265/.348 over 147 plate appearances as a rookie.

Both players have options remaining. They’re probably ticketed for Triple-A Albuquerque as things stand. They’re each young enough to be change of scenery candidates if Colorado’s new regime isn’t as bullish on them as the previous front office had been. That’s theoretically also true of prospect Sterlin Thompson, the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster. Thompson seems likelier to get a chance to play his way into Warren Schaeffer’s outfield next season on the heels of a .296/.392/.519 showing in Albuquerque.

Which Team Will Sign Kazuma Okamoto?

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There are less than 48 hours until the posting window closes for NPB slugger Kazuma Okamoto. His first MLB contract needs to be finalized by Sunday at 4:00 pm Central. There’s a good chance Okamoto agrees to terms by tomorrow. Tatsuya Imai agreed to a three-year deal with the Astros yesterday to leave a day for a standard physical before his own signing deadline this afternoon.

The right-handed hitting Okamoto is one of the more interesting mid-tier free agent bats. He’s a career .277/.361/.521 hitter over parts of 11 seasons at Japan’s highest level. Okamoto was limited to 69 games last year by an elbow injury. That kept his counting stats down, yet his .327/.416/.598 slash line was the best rate production of his career. He has six 30-homer seasons on his résumé and walked as often as he struck out last year.

Okamoto is headed into his age-30 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll command a long-term deal, especially after younger Japanese stars Imai and Munetaka Murakami found cold enough markets to take short contracts. He should land with a club that views him as a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next few seasons. While Okamoto doesn’t have the eye-popping power that Murakami brings to the table, he should have a higher floor based on his superior bat-to-ball skills. Okamoto made contact on 80.4% of his swings last year; Murakami’s contact rate has been below 64% in consecutive seasons.

Both players are corner bats. Murakami is expected to be a first baseman for the White Sox. Okamoto’s position probably depends on his landing spot. One scout with whom MLBTR spoke at the beginning of the offseason opined that he could play a serviceable but unspectacular third base. Okamoto made 52 appearances at the hot corner and played 27 games at first base for the Yomiuri Giants last season. He was primarily a first baseman the year before that, making 130 appearances there against 39 outings at third.

Okamoto was a full-time infielder last year. He has 164 career appearances on the outfield grass, though, including 15 two seasons ago. Will Sammon of The Athletic floated the possibility of an MLB team giving Okamoto some work in left field as another way to get his bat in the lineup.

The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Cubs have been at least loosely connected to Okamoto during his posting window. San Diego’s and Pittsburgh’s interest has come up most frequently, though it’s unclear how much to take from that. The White Sox weren’t tied to Murakami until very late in the process, while it wasn’t publicly known that the Astros were involved on Imai at all until an agreement was done.

Where will Okamoto end up?

 

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