MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Yesterday, we released the Padres’ entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of the Padres-centric chat.
Astros Notes: Brantley, Yordan, Gage, Bullpen
Astros left fielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley will likely begin the season on the injured list, manager Dusty Baker confirmed to reporters this morning (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Baker also announced that fellow left fielder/DH Yordan Alvarez will make his spring debut on Thursday after missing all of the team’s Grapefruit League games thus far due to soreness in his left hand. The ’Stros also optioned lefty reliever Matt Gage to Triple-A this morning, making an all-right-handed bullpen likely to begin the season.
Brantley, 35, underwent season-ending shoulder surgery last summer. He’s yet to appear in a game this spring, although that’s in part due to a pair of leaves he’s taken while tending to an unspecified family matter. Brantley was participating in hitting drills on the field in late February, but the team hasn’t provided a formal timeline for when or whether he’ll get into a spring game.
Houston re-signed Brantley to a one-year, $12MM contract over the winter, setting the stage for his fifth straight year as an Astro. Though the aforementioned shoulder injury limited him to just 277 plate appearances in 64 games last season, he remained productive when healthy, batting .288/.370/.416 with a higher walk rate than strikeout rate (11.2% versus 10.8%). Brantley has long been one of the toughest strikeouts in the game, and he’s been excellent in his four seasons with the Astros: .306/.368/.464 (128 wRC+).
As for Alvarez, the Astros have continually been coy when it comes to revealing much in the way of details on the still-nebulous hand ailment that has bothered the slugger dating back to 2022. Alvarez had soreness in both hands last summer, but Baker has regularly eschewed specifics regarding the injury. Both Baker and GM Dana Brown have continually voiced confidence that Alvarez, who hit .306/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 135 games last season, will be ready for Opening Day. A Thursday in-game debut would give him a week’s worth of plate appearances to ramp up.
Turning to the bullpen, Gage was the lone remaining lefty candidate on the spring roster. Both Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski are expected to open the season on the injured list, and Houston opted not to re-sign Will Smith or bring in any of the many free-agent lefties available this winter. It’s always possible that a small trade, waiver claim or free-agent signing alters the calculus between now and Opening Day, but it seems increasingly likely that they simply won’t have a left-handed reliever come Opening Day.
That’s familiar territory for the Astros, who have been regularly light on left-handed bullpen arms in recent seasons. Houston didn’t carry a lefty reliever on its ALDS or ALCS roster during the 2022 postseason, for instance. That hasn’t proven to be a major issues for the Astros, due largely to the strength of their right-handed relievers even in typically disadvantageous platoon spots. Houston’s righty relievers not only lack glaring platoon splits but have dominated left-handed hitters. Each of Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero and closer Ryan Pressly held lefties to a batting average of .205 or lower, an OBP of .287 or lower, and a wOBA of .240 or lower in 2022.
The Opener: WBC, Profar, MLBTR Chats
With just nine days remaining until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. WBC Update
The World Baseball Classic final is today. After a 6-5 walk off win in the bottom of the ninth against Team Mexico, the undefeated Team Japan moves on to the final round to face Team USA. Japan, of course, sports two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, as USA counters with not only Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout, but also Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, who leads all WBC players with four home runs in just 19 at bats. With the game set to air at 6pm CT tonight on FS1, the biggest question remaining is: Will Ohtani pitch? The team has left the answer up in the air publicly, naming lefty Shota Imanaga as the starter for tonight’s game even as Ohtani admits that it would be difficult to get warm in the bullpen while also batting in the heart of the order.
2. When will Profar be made official?
Jurickson Profar, the last top-50 free agent on the market this offseason, recently signed a one-year pact with the Rockies, though Colorado has yet to make the deal official. While the Rockies have a full 40-man roster, making the Profar signing official likely will not be impacted by that, as players such as Brendan Rodgers and Lucas Gilbreath are already ticketed for the 60-day IL. Still, with Profar expected to arrive in camp sometime this week, it seems reasonable to expect the signing to be made official in the coming days as Profar prepares to be the everyday left fielder in Colorado. The timing of the move is also notable given the simple fact that Opening Day is just over a week away. Profar got 16 plate appearances in with the Netherlands during the WBC and went 3-for-13 with a homer and three walks, but he’d still benefit from as many spring at-bats as possible.
3. MLBTR Chats Today
In conjunction with the Padres edition of our Offseason in Review series, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald will be hosting a Padres-centric live chat with readers later today at 10am CT. You can click here to leave a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat when it begins or allow you to read the transcript afterwards. In addition, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting his weekly chat with an MLB-wide focus at 1pm CT. You can click here to leave a question, participate live, or read the transcript of Steve’s chat.
Latest On D-Backs’ Rotation
The Diamondbacks entered Spring Training with four rotation spots in place. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are the top two on the staff. Madison Bumgarner will get another crack in the middle, while Arizona brought back Zach Davies on a one-year free agent deal to take a back-end spot.
Who would secure the fifth spot was one of the more interesting decisions for the Snakes in camp. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored in early January, that battle looked likely to come down to four hurlers: Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry and Brandon Pfaadt. Jameson and Nelson, both of whom made their big league debuts late in the 2022 season, seemed the early favorites.
That indeed now appears to be a two-person race. Arizona reassigned Pfaadt, who is not yet on the 40-man roster, to minor league camp over the weekend. They optioned Henry to Triple-A Reno this afternoon, taking him out of consideration for an Opening Day job as well.
Neither Jameson nor Nelson has done much to seize the job this spring. The former has allowed eight runs in 9 2/3 innings, while the latter has been tagged for nine runs in the same amount of work. Jameson has at least managed a solid 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while Nelson’s 10:6 mark is less impressive.
Both pitchers fared well in very limited MLB looks last year. Jameson made four starts and posted a microscopic 1.48 ERA through 24 1/3 innings. That came with an excellent 56.1% grounder percentage and above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It was a very strong debut effort but won’t completely erase concerns about the ghastly 6.95 ERA he’d posted over the 114 Triple-A innings he’d thrown prior to his promotion. Reno is among the hardest places in affiliated ball to pitch, which certainly didn’t do him any favors. That said, some prospect evaluators have suggested the Ball State product is likelier to settle into a bullpen role than a rotation because of concerns about his command.
Nelson has had some relief concerns himself, though he’s generally credited for more advanced command than Jameson. He doesn’t throw quite as hard and didn’t miss as many bats in his brief big league look as Jameson did. Nelson had similarly strong bottom line numbers in a cup of coffee, however, allowing four runs in 18 1/3 big league frames. Over 136 innings in Reno, he’d posted a 5.43 ERA with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers.
Henry had the most MLB work of this group in 2022, starting nine games. He didn’t find the early success of Jameson or Nelson, pitching to a 5.36 ERA with below-average strikeout and walk rates in 47 innings. Henry allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 frames in camp before being optioned. Pfaadt is arguably held in the highest regard of the bunch but is the only one who hasn’t made his big league debut. The 24-year-old made 19 starts at Double-A Amarillo and 10 with Reno last season, combining for a 3.83 ERA in 167 innings. He allowed five runs with 15 strikeouts and four walks in 12 innings this spring.
Matt Foster Diagnosed With Forearm Strain
The White Sox informed reporters, including James Fegan of The Athletic, that right-hander Matt Foster has a forearm strain in his throwing arm. They didn’t provide an estimated timeline for him today but said they hope to have one by the end of camp.
Foster, 28, was selected by the club in the 20th round of the 2016 draft. He worked his way to the majors and was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2019, to protect him from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. He then went on to have an excellent debut in 2020, posting a 2.20 ERA over 28 2/3 innings. He struck out 28.4% of batters faced that year, walked 8.3% of them and got grounders at a 35.8% clip.
Unfortunately, his results haven’t been quite as good over the past two seasons, as he’s been frequently shuttled to Triple-A and back. In those two seasons, he’s tossed 84 big league innings with a 5.14 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 30% ground ball rate. He’s also tossed 18 2/3 innings in the minors in that time with better results, including a 3.86 ERA, 39% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate.
At this point, it’s unclear what the next steps will be for Foster, but a strain in a pitcher’s throwing arm is always concerning. He will presumably undergo further tests in the coming days and will hopefully get some good news from those.
Adrian Houser Expected To Begin Season In Brewers’ Bullpen
Despite some offseason speculation about the Brewers potentially trading from their rotation depth, Milwaukee added to the starting staff this winter. Veteran southpaw Wade Miley returned on a one-year free agent deal, joining Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser in the starting mix.
Milwaukee subsequently lost Aaron Ashby and depth starter Jason Alexander to injuries to open the year. Still, with a rotation that runs six deep, Houser has seemed the likeliest odd man out since Miley joined the club in January. The right-hander confirmed this afternoon that Milwaukee brass informed him at the start of Spring Training they were planning to deploy him in relief to open the year (link via Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).
Houser indicated he hasn’t heard from team officials about his role since that initial conversation. Manager Craig Counsell indicated that was still the plan though. “The goal, frankly, was (using Houser in relief) because it means that we were healthy in the other spots,” Counsell said (as relayed by Hogg). “We are in a good spot there. We’re trending toward that. We’re not there yet but we’re trending toward that. (Houser) has been out far enough where we’re in a good spot either way and that’s what we were hoping for.”
Houser would be the next option in the event of injury and seems assured to make some starts throughout the course of the year. Nevertheless, he told Hogg today his goal remains to be in the top five on the depth chart. “In my mind, I consider myself in that five. That’s the way I’ve been going about it. I’ve been considering myself in the rotation. That’s the way I’ve been going about my business and my work is that I’m in the rotation until they tell me otherwise. That’s when it will change.”
The 30-year-old has been an effective big league starter in the recent past. He threw 142 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with an elite 59% ground-ball rate as recently as 2021. Last year was a struggle, as he allowed a bit fewer than five earned runs per nine innings while his grounder percentage fell to an only slightly above-average 46.7% clip. Houser has had below-average strikeout and walk numbers in each of the past three seasons, so keeping the ball on the ground at a near league-best rate is integral to his success.
Once Milwaukee signed Miley, there was some thought Houser could find himself on the trade block. There’s no indication the Brewers actually explored offers in the past few months, though, and the chances of a trade seemingly diminished once Ashby was ruled out for the first few weeks of the season. Houser is out of minor league option years, so there’s no question he’ll be on the Opening Day roster. The Brewers seem likely to deploy him in multi-inning stints to keep him stretched out if/when a rotation need arises.
Competition Committee Evaluating Potential Alterations To 2023 Rule Changes
Major League Baseball has introduced a number of rule changes for the 2023 campaign. The pitch clock, limitations on infield shifting, and enlarged bases were all announced last September, with the changes going into effect this spring.
With Opening Day now ten days out, Evan Drellich of the Athletic reports the Competition Committee met this afternoon to discuss potential alterations to some of the new rules. Specific changes under consideration aren’t known but Drellich notes that any adjustment made before Opening Day would not be expected to be major. To be clear, there’s nothing to suggest the committee is considering abandoning any of the new provisions entirely. Rather, they’re examining potential tweaks to the rule changes that have already been put in place.
Even small changes to the rules less than two weeks before meaningful action begins could lead to an adjustment period that lingers into the season. However, it appears the changes under consideration are at the MLBPA’s behest. Drellich notes the union brought some concerns about the new rules to the league to prompt the reconsideration.
The players on the Competition Committee voted unanimously against the implementation of the pitch clock and the shift limit last summer. That was little more than a symbolic gesture, as the four players on the committee are outnumbered by the six league appointees (plus an umpire). That gives MLB essential unilateral control for changes to the on-field rules — which was mutually agreed upon by MLB and the Players Association during the last round of collective bargaining — and MLB pushed through the clock and shift ban over the objections of the players on the committee.
As things stand, pitchers have up to 15 seconds with no one on base and a maximum of 20 seconds with runners aboard to begin their delivery. Hitters, meanwhile, have to be in the box and alert to the pitcher by the time the clock gets to eight seconds. Hitters are also capped at one timeout per plate appearance, while pitchers cannot disengage from the rubber (either a step-off or pickoff attempt) more than twice in an at-bat unless an out is successfully recorded on the third disengagement. Umpires are, however, granted broad authority to award extra time if circumstances necessitate.
The pitch clock has seemed to have its intended effect in exhibition play. Drellich points out that this year’s Spring Training games have averaged two hours, 36 minutes through play on Sunday after averaging three hours, one minute in 2022. Whether it’ll carry over to that extent in important games remains to be seen but the league is surely happy with the early reduction in dead time.
Drellich notes some on the players’ side believe the 15-second minimum for pitchers with no one on base and the eight-second rule for hitters leave too little time. MLBPA executive director Tony Clark expressed broad frustration with the process over the weekend. “My hope despite the fact that nearly all of the things that we have seen that would otherwise be characterized as challenges could have been avoided with the input that the players offered when these rules were being constructed,” Clark said on Saturday (link via Associated Press). “My hope is that moving forward that the league continues to take the input of players to heart, such that each of the adjustments that we’ve seen that have been implemented this year are of benefit in the long run.”
It seems MLB has taken that sentiment enough to consider alterations to the new rules, though it’s not yet known if any adjustments will actually be made. There’s a small window to put anything else into play before Opening Day.
Rockies Option Nolan Jones
The Rockies announced this evening that corner infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque. Reliever Noah Davis was also optioned, while non-roster invitees Logan Allen, Jeff Criswell, Braxton Fulford and Karl Kauffmann were all reassigned to minor league camp.
Jones’ demotion comes as a bit of a surprise. Colorado acquired the 24-year-old from the Guardians at the start of the offseason, sending infield prospect Juan Brito the other way. It was a rare swap of fairly well regarded young players, with Colorado taking the shot on a power hitter closer to the majors while Cleveland added an up-the-middle talent with excellent numbers in Low-A. Jones entered camp with what seemed to be a strong chance to crack the Opening Day team in Colorado, an opportunity that might not have been afforded on a deeper Guardians’ roster.
That became particularly true once the Rox lost starting second baseman Brendan Rodgers to what could be a season-ending shoulder dislocation. That opened the possibility of third baseman Ryan McMahon moving back to the keystone. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt declared that the plan a couple weeks ago. The club later added Mike Moustakas to the organization on a non-roster pact. Moustakas played a decent amount of second base between 2019-20 but has only logged 10 2/3 innings there over the past two seasons. Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweeted shortly after the signing that the Rockies viewed Moustakas solely as a corner infield/designated hitter option.
With McMahon likely headed to second, third base became a position for grabs. Jones, Elehuris Montero and non-roster veterans Moustakas and Harold Castro appeared the top candidates. Jones is now out of the mix to start the season, due at least in part to a disappointing spring performance. The left-handed hitter hit .186/.250/.233 in exhibition play, striking out 20 times in 48 plate appearances. Moustakas, Montero and Castro have all gotten off to better starts this spring.
A former second-round pick, Jones appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects each season from 2019-21. He has generated intrigue for huge walk tallies and big power potential in his 6’4″ frame but lofty strikeout totals have been the biggest concern. Jones routinely struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances climbing the minor league ladder, including a 30% rate in Triple-A in 2021. To his credit, he trimmed that to 25.8% with a quality .276/.368/.463 line over 55 games there last year. That earned him a 28-game MLB look, in which he posted a .244/.309/.372 slash with 31 punchouts and eight walks in 94 plate appearances.
Jones will start the year with the Isotopes and should benefit from one of the most favorable offensive environments in pro ball. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him earn a recall to make his team debut before too long. In the interim, his option seems to bode well for Moustakas’ and Castro’s chances of cracking the roster out of camp.
The remainder of the corner spots should be spoken for if everyone’s healthy. The Rockies have agreed to terms with Jurickson Profar to play left field, thereby pushing Kris Bryant to right. First baseman C.J. Cron has dealt with some back discomfort but informed reporters today he expects to be ready for Opening Day (via Harding). The same is true for corner outfielder/DH Charlie Blackmon, who has also been slowed by a back problem but expects to participate in batting practice this evening (relayed by Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette).
Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake
The Braves will option infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to Triple-A, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Both had been in line for the Opening Day shortstop job in Atlanta, but it seems that will now go to Orlando Arcia. David O’Brien of The Athletic relays that Arcia will get the starting gig with Ehire Adrianza as the utility infielder. Adrianza is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Braves subsequently announced the moves as part of a larger batch of roster cuts, including outfielders Jordan Luplow, Eli White and right-hander Nick Anderson.
The Braves went into this offseason with a shortstop vacancy for the first time in years, as Dansby Swanson has held down that job since late 2016. Swanson reached free agency this offseason and was considered one of the “Big Four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Despite that robust class of shortstops, Atlanta seemingly had little interest in either re-signing Swanson or going after anyone else. Eventually, the offseason came and went with the club’s big move being the trade for catcher Sean Murphy, who was later extended.
It seemed the club was satisfied with its internal shortstop options, with Grissom and Arcia the favorites for the role. Grissom had made his debut last year when he was just 21 years old, largely filling in at second base for the injured Ozzie Albies. He hit well in his first 156 plate appearances, producing a batting line of .291/.353/.440 for a wRC+ of 121. However, that may have been buoyed by a red hot start, as he hit .347/.398/.558 through September 7 but just .174/.264/.196 after.
Nonetheless, it was an encouraging start for such a young player and the club seemed to be a big believer in his abilities. Though he largely played second in his MLB debut, he was a shortstop in the minors. But that didn’t mean moving back to the other side of the bag was an obvious choice, as prospect evaluators had long raised questions about his ability to stick at short. It seems the club decided it was worth pursuing regardless of those concerns, as they tasked coach Ron Washington with working on Grissom’s shortstop defense this offseason. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos discussed the situation in January, after Swanson had signed with the Cubs.
“I can see how the scouting community might have questions about Vaughn. I had questions about Vaughn when I first saw him,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “And I’ve been wrong plenty of times. The difference is we have a guy in Ron Washington who’s unbelievable with this stuff. He wouldn’t just say something to say it. … And, look, we don’t know how Vaughn’s going to hit. He’s got to earn the job. Orlando Arcia can do it, too. But Wash really believes in Vaughn. We believe in Vaughn, too, but we’re going to go with who we think the expert in that area is, and I don’t know anybody better in the game than Ron.”
For most of the winter, it seemed it would be a two-horse race for the job between Grissom and Arcia, but there was a late charge from Shewmake. It was reported just yesterday that Shewmake’s hot spring was making things interesting. His prospect profile was essentially the inverse of Grissom’s, as his glovework is graded much stronger than his bat. But he hit .323/.382/.452 in spring action and seemed to give himself some momentum to take the job.
However, it now seems that neither of the youngsters will get the job, at least here at the end of spring. With Grissom and Shewmake both getting optioned today, it seems they’ve decided to go with the veteran in Arcia. Though he is more established, with 642 games of major league experience, there’s still risk with the 28-year-old. He’s coming off a fairly solid season as the club’s utility infielder, hitting .244/.316/.416 for a wRC+ of 104. However, the rest of his work at the plate is less impressive, as he had hit .242/.293/.363 coming into the year for a wRC+ of 70. He also hasn’t had a full-time shortstop gig since 2019, when defensive metrics gave him poor reviews and he was pushed into a utility role over the past three years.
This is merely a temporary move and the club could quickly call up Grissom or Shewmake early on in the season. However, it’s still a surprising result given the club’s recent history. They’ve shown a strong willingness to be aggressive with their young players, with both Grissom and Michael Harris II skipping Triple-A last year, going straight from Double-A to the bigs. The club then avoided free agents all winter, seeming to have little interest in either the marquee players or even a modest deal for someone like Elvis Andrus. It seems they’ve decided Grissom and Shewmake need more time and are now left with Arcia as their top option at short, at least for the time being.
The move could have service time implications for the younger players, as Shewmake’s clock has yet to start ticking and Grissom has a tally of 57 days. Whether either of them can reach the one-year mark this season will depend upon how long they eventually spend in the minors. It’s possible to earn a full year of service time even while spending time in the minors if a youngster finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year balloting, but they also have to appear at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline. Neither Grissom or Shewmake are on any of those three lists at the moment.
With Arcia securing the starting gig, Adrianza will apparently need to be added to the roster to take the backup infield job. He hit just .175/.264/.206 last year but is capable of playing any position other than catcher.
Turning to the other moves, Luplow and White were both in contention for a job backing up the starting outfield trio of Ronald Acuña Jr., Eddie Rosario and Harris. They seem to have been bumped out of that contest, at least for Opening Day. That perhaps will allow Sam Hilliard and Kevin Pillar to secure jobs on the bench. Nick Anderson was in the running for a bullpen job but will start the season in the minors.
Atlanta will need to make some roster moves in the wake of all this, but they may have already gotten a head start on that. Neither of Adrianza or Pillar are on the roster and it looks like the fifth starter job will go to one of Dylan Dodd or Jared Shuster, with neither of them being on the roster either. However, they recently opened a couple of spots when they lost Dennis Santana on waivers to the Twins and outrighted Jackson Stephens. They can also open a couple more by transferring Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day IL, with both pitchers likely out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.
Red Sox’ Joely Rodríguez Diagnosed With Grade 2 Oblique Strain
Red Sox left-hander Joely Rodríguez has a Grade 2 oblique strain, manager Alex Cora tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Cora declined to provide a timetable for the southpaw, saying only that he would return “whenever he’s ready.” However, even mild oblique strains usually lead to absences of a few weeks, so Rodríguez seems slated to miss significant time.
Rodríguez, 31, was signed in the offseason to a one-year, $2MM deal with a club option for 2024. He spent last year with the Mets, posting a 4.47 ERA over 55 appearances. He walked 12% of batters faced but got strikeouts at a 26.4% rate and grounders at a 53.8% clip. It’s possible that he deserved better than that ERA indicates, as his .303 batting average on balls in play and his 63.3% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average. His 3.23 FIP and 3.54 SIERA suggest he could be better if his luck were to even out.
Unfortunately, he will have to wait a while to test that luck with his new club, as he’s likely going to be out of action for a while. Though Cora wouldn’t provide any specifics on the estimated return timeline, there are some recent examples with more details. The Rays, for instance, gave an estimate of six-to-eight weeks when Tyler Glasnow recently suffered his own Grade 2 oblique strain. Every injury is different and it can’t simply be assumed that Rodriguez is looking at the same timeframe, but that can at least provide a rough guideline for what might be on the table here.
The Sox were set to have two lefties in their Opening Day bullpen, with Richard Bleier being the other. There are no other lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, but this news will perhaps open the door for someone else to make the club. Ryan Sherriff was signed to a minor league deal this offseason and could be an option. He was reassigned to minor league camp last week but this new info could perhaps increase his chances of making the club.
If the Sox are interested in external additions, the free agent market still features guys like Zack Britton and Ross Detwiler. It’s also possible that some new names will join them on the open market as Opening Day approaches and other clubs make their final roster decisions.
