MLB Trade Rumors

TODAY: Gallen’s luxury tax number is $18.7MM when factoring in the deferred money, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.

FEBRUARY 13: The Diamondbacks are re-signing Zac Gallen on a one-year deal, pending a physical. The Boras Corporation client technically receives a $22.025MM guarantee that matches the value of the qualifying offer which he declined in November. However, a reported $14MM will be deferred via five $2.8MM installments paid between 2031-35. That means the D-Backs will only pay a little over $8MM, one-third of the contract, this year. They’ll need to open 40-man roster spots for Gallen and Paul Sewald once those deals are official but have no shortage of candidates to go on the 60-day injured list.

Gallen is coming off a down year that clearly sapped a lot of his appeal on the open market. He entered the season as a strong candidate to command upwards of $100MM once he hit free agency. Gallen stayed healthy and took all 33 turns through the rotation, but he had the worst rate stats of his career. He turned in a personal-high 4.83 earned run average with a career-worst 21.5% strikeout rate.

The season started especially poorly, as Gallen allowed at least five earned runs per nine innings in each of the first four months. He took a 5.40 ERA into the All-Star Break and had a 5.60 mark across 127 innings at the trade deadline. The D-Backs were aggressive sellers, moving Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller. They didn’t find an offer they liked on Gallen more than the draft pick they’d collect if he signed elsewhere after rejecting the qualifying offer.

Arizona reportedly was concerned about overworking young pitchers down the stretch, so they got some benefit out of holding Gallen for the innings alone. He performed better after the deadline, tossing quality starts in eight of his last 11 outings. The 30-year-old turned in a 3.32 ERA over his final 65 innings. The Diamondbacks went 7-4 in those games, part of the reason they were able to hang in the Wild Card picture until the final weekend despite the July selloff.

While it was an encouraging last couple months, it wasn’t exactly a return to peak form. Gallen only struck out 20% of opponents during that stretch. He was helped a lot by a .232 average on balls in play. Gallen had struck out between 25-29% of opponents in each of his first five-plus MLB seasons. The swing-and-miss drop wasn’t quite so extreme on a per-pitch basis, but last year’s 9.5% swinging strike rate was the second-lowest mark of his career.

There weren’t any dramatic changes to Gallen’s raw stuff. His fastball averaged 93.5 mph, right in line with his career mark. That’s essentially league average for a right-handed starting pitcher. Opponents have had increasing success against Gallen’s heater over the past couple seasons. He managed decent results on his knuckle-curve and changeup, his top two secondary offerings. He sporadically mixed a cutter, slider and sinker — all of which were hit hard.

It remains to be seen if they’ll make any changes to his arsenal going into 2026. Gallen began to scale back his four-seam fastball usage in the final few months last season, largely in favor of more changeups. In any case, the team probably feels he deserved a little better than a near-5.00 ERA would suggest. Statcast’s “expected” ERA, which is based on his strikeout/walk profile and the batted balls he allows, landed at 4.28. His 4.24 SIERA was in a similar range. A positive regression toward those metrics would make him a league average starter.

This is an ideal outcome for the Diamondbacks. They were willing to pay an upfront $22.025MM salary to retain Gallen in November. His decision to decline the QO may very well have opened the payroll room to bring Kelly back on a two-year, $40MM free agent deal. Team personnel maintained throughout the offseason that they’d like to retain Gallen if they could make it work financially.

Owner Ken Kendrick raved about Gallen as far back as September. “He’s a special young man who spent nearly seven years as a D-Back. He definitely had an up-and-down season — performed better in the later part of the year, certainly, than earlier in the year. … He’s loved being a Diamondback,” Kendrick said at the time. “I don’t want to say it’s out of the touch of reality that we’d work out an arrangement to bring him back. He’s been a great D-Back. Last I recall, he was the guy who pitched seven or eight innings of no-hit ball in a World Series game for the Arizona Diamondbacks. … He’s the guy you want to root for.”

Just this week, manager Torey Lovullo said the clubhouse would “would welcome him with open arms, certainly” if they could get a deal done. Now that it has come to pass, he’ll slot alongside Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt in the projected rotation. That could push free agent pickup Michael Soroka into a long relief role unless they decide to run a six-man rotation. They’re without a true ace until Corbin Burnes makes it back from Tommy John surgery; he’s aiming for some time around the All-Star Break. There’s far more stability than they had at the beginning of the winter, allowing them to take their time in deciding when to bring up prospects like Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, both of whom they acquired from Texas in the Kelly trade.

Penciling in a $22.025MM salary for Gallen would bring Arizona’s payroll projection to roughly $194MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’d technically be right in line with last year’s $195MM season-opening mark, which Kendrick said at the beginning of the winter that the team wouldn’t match. However, they’re reportedly only on the hook for around $8MM in salary payments this year, so the D-Backs didn’t need to dramatically stretch the budget after waiting out the offseason.

The Diamondbacks don’t forfeit any of their existing draft choices to re-sign their own qualified free agent. Any other team would have punted at least one draft choice and potentially international signing bonus pool space to sign him. They are indirectly losing a pick by forfeiting the right to compensation.

That selection would have come after the first round in 2026 if Gallen had signed elsewhere for at least $50MM. That seemed a distinct possibility early in the offseason but almost certainly wasn’t happening in the middle of February. It’s more likely that they’re passing on a compensation pick that would have landed 73rd or 74th overall, which they receive if he’d walked for less than $50MM. That’s not a huge cost compared to bringing back a potential mid-rotation starter on a favorable deal.

Although the team must be happy with the outcome, it’s undoubtedly not what Gallen envisioned for his first trip to free agency. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests he declined multi-year offers from other teams because he preferred to remain with the Diamondbacks. That doesn’t mean that the market didn’t materialize as hoped. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. It seems clear in retrospect that teams weren’t willing to go to those lengths given Gallen’s disappointing platform year.

Even if staying in Arizona was his first choice all along, he’s coming out quite a bit worse than if he’d accepted the qualifying offer. He’ll receive the same amount of money in the long run, but the true value of the deferred money is worth less than if he’d collected it all in 2026. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports reports that the net present value will land in the $12-13MM range for competitive balance tax purposes. That probably doesn’t mean much for the team — they would’ve been more than $20MM away from the CBT threshold in either case — but illustrates that there’s a significant gap between the QO and this contract.

Gallen did at least agree to terms within a couple days of camps opening. Assuming he takes his physical at some point during the weekend, he’ll report to the team by the beginning of full squad workouts and should have plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day. One can imagine he didn’t want to wait until close to the regular season, as former teammate Jordan Montgomery did in 2024. Montgomery was very critical of how Boras had managed negotiations and switched agencies within two weeks of signing with the D-Backs. The lefty pitched poorly in ’24, then underwent Tommy John surgery last spring. He signed a $1.25MM deal with Texas this week and wound up making $48.75MM over three seasons from 2024-26.

There’s certainly a world where things work out well for Gallen in the long run. He’ll return to the open market at age 31 without being weighed down by draft compensation. A player can only receive the qualifying offer once in his career. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table if he rebounds to the form he showed in 2022-24: a 3.20 ERA and 26% strikeout rate over 93 starts. Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso and Matt Chapman are all Boras clients who found disappointing markets in one offseason and went on to much more lucrative contracts after bounce back performances.

Time will tell if Gallen can follow the same path. His immediate focus will be on trying to get Arizona to a playoff berth in an annually difficult NL West. Gallen was the last unsigned qualified free agent and arguably the last potential impact player available. Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, Zack Littell and Griffin Canning headline a dwindling free agent class.

Steve Gilbert of MLB.com first reported the D-Backs were nearing a deal with Gallen. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reported it was a one-year contract. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported it was a $22.025MM guarantee with roughly $14MM in deferrals. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports added details on the deferral payouts.

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images.