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MLBTR Podcast: The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What positions do the Astros need to target to make it back to the postseason? (41:55)
  • Do the Brewers need to change their contact-over-power approach? (45:20)
  • Will Kyle Tucker’s injuries significantly impact his payday? (47:10)
  • Should the Padres try to sign J.T. Realmuto or stick with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano? (49:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
  • Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here
  • Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

The Opener: Okamoto, Hirings, Brewers, Mariners

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Okamoto to be posted:

Earlier this morning, it was reported that NPB’s Yomiuri Giants will be posting slugger Kazuma Okamoto for MLB clubs this winter. A career .277/.361/.521 hitter in NPB, the 29-year-old faces questions about his ability to hit velocity and whether he’ll end up playing third or first base in the majors but has prodigious power and figures to shake up the corner infield market in a big way this offseason alongside fellow NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami, who also plays the infield corners and is expected to be one of the league’s top free agents this winter. Unlike most free agents, who become available five days after the World Series, Okamoto and other players coming to MLB through the posting system will have a 45-day window to sign in the majors once they’re officially posted. That’s unlikely to happen for at least another month, but MLB teams are surely already adjusting their offseason plans to account for Okamoto’s availability.

2. One managerial vacancy down:

The Angels brought an end to their managerial search yesterday when they hired Kurt Suzuki to take over for Ron Washington and Ray Montgomery in the dugout next year. While Suzuki assembles a coaching staff and the Angels begin to move on with their offseason, seven other clubs still have leadership positions to fill. The Giants, Padres, Braves, Orioles, Nationals, and Twins all still need to hire a manager, while the Rockies need to hire a new head of baseball operations, who will then decide on the status of interim manager Warren Schaeffer. San Francisco appears to be the closest to landing a new skipper at this point, with University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello viewed as the favorite for the position.

3. Brewers, Mariners head into the offseason:

While the focus in recent days has been on the Dodgers and Blue Jays after they punched their tickets to the World Series, the two teams that came within a series of a pennant are now headed into the offseason a little bit earlier than they were hoping. End-of-season press conferences from Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold are likely to occur in the coming days with both clubs facing significant decisions this offseason, with Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor both set to hit free agency after joining the Mariners at the trade deadline while the Brewers are expected to contemplate the possibility of trading Freddy Peralta. Perhaps comments from those front offices in recent days will shed additional light on the offseason plans in Milwaukee and Seattle as they look to build towards a return to the playoffs in 2026.

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted This Offseason

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NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason, according to an announcement made by the Yomiuri Giants and Okamoto himself during a press conference earlier today. Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link) was among the outlets to report on the news, which comes on the heels of reporting last month that Okamoto was expected to be posted this winter.

Despite that previous reporting, the 29-year-old Okamoto’s was not viewed as a certain thing due in part to Yomiuri’s history of being reluctant to allow their star players to utilize the posting system. Okamoto certainly fits that description, seeing as he’s the club’s captain and a six-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and three NPB home run titles to his name. He was limited to just 69 Central League games this year due to an elbow injury caused by a collision at first base, but in the 293 trips to the plate he managed to take he raked to the tune of a .327/.416/.598 slash line. He managed 15 homers, 21 doubles, and a triple in less than half a full season’s work with identical 11.3% strikeout and walk rates.

It’s that blend of power and discipline that has led teams to scout Okamoto for the past several years in anticipation of his eventual move stateside. Since his rookie age-22 season back in 2018, Okamoto has hit 274 home runs in 1,039 Central League games. He’s homered once every 16.2 plate appearances in that eight-year stretch with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.8%. It’s certainly an impressive resume, and his career .277/.361/.521 slash line in NPB compares quite favorably to the NPB slash lines of current big league sluggers Shohei Ohtani (.286/.358/.500) and Seiya Suzuki (.315/.414/.570). That Suzuki was a better hitter in NPB than Ohtani was should demonstrate the fact that NPB stats don’t always perfectly reflect how a player will perform in the majors.

Much of that is due to the lack of high-end velocity in NPB, which creates uncertainty about how hitters will handle the improved velocity in the majors. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph. Of course, some of those struggles could simply be due to limited exposure; Longenhagen notes that Okamoto saw only around 200 fastballs at that velocity all season last year. It’s entirely possible his numbers could improve against high-end velocity with more experience facing those types of pitchers, but it’s nonetheless a concern interested clubs will need to consider as they weigh a pursuit of Okamoto’s services.

Another consideration is where Okamoto will be able to play. He’s played around 60% of his NPB games at third base, but has also received plenty of time at first base with an increased workload at that position in recent years plus occasional starts in the outfield corners. One of the corner infield spots seems most likely to be his defensive home in the majors, and while it’s certainly possible there are MLB clubs that view Okamoto as a capable third baseman, Jeff Passan of ESPN suggests that at least some teams view him as better suited for first base, where he’s drawn rave reviews defensively for his work in Japan.

Now that Okamoto is poised to be posted, he’s sure to draw significant multi-year interest in the majors. He’ll face competition from fellow NPB corner infielder Munetaka Murakami in the posting market this winter, who is four years younger than Okamoto with a .270/.394/.557 NPB slash line that’s even more impressive. In terms of stateside players, the biggest names on the first base market are Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Luis Arraez while the third base market is headlined by Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. The Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, and Padres are among the teams who need help at at least one corner infield spot this winter, while teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers could also make sense depending on how the rest of their roster decisions play out.

Okamoto won’t be officially posted for some time yet, as that process typically begins between late November and mid December. Once he’s been posted, MLB teams will have 45 days to negotiate a contract with Okamoto. The club that ultimately lands him with owe the Yomiuri Giants a posting fee on top of Okamoto’s contract. That fee adds up to 20% of the first $25MM spent on Okamoto, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any spending over $50MM. As an example, when the Cubs signed Suzuki during the 2021-22 offseason, the posting fee on that $85MM deal came in at roughly $14.6MM. The posting fee on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers, meanwhile, came in at approximately $50.6MM.

MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Castellanos, Happ, Pablo Lopez

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This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.

Abner asks:

The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.

There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed.  Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening.  In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%.  I'm more in the range of 5-10%.

Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."

My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch.  Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him.  We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others.  I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.

I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.

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Angels Hire Kurt Suzuki As Manager

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The Angels’ managerial search is over, as the club announced that they’ve hired Kurt Suzuki as their new bench boss. The former MLB catcher had been a special assistant in the Halos’ front office.

Suzuki was one of multiple former Angels players who was linked to the managerial vacancy.  Albert Pujols emerged as the initial candidate for the job and was seen as the favorite, before news broke yesterday that Pujols wouldn’t be the hire.  As per reports from both Heyman and The Athletic’s Sam Blum, Pujols and the Angels couldn’t line up on a contract, as well as on “coaches and resources,” in Heyman’s words.  Longtime Angels outfielder Torii Hunter was another candidate for the job but he also fell out of race yesterday.

Other names linked to the search included candidates with past experience managing at the big league level, including Rocco Baldelli, Brandon Hyde, and Los Angeles’ own third base coach (and former Astros skipper) Bo Porter.  It isn’t known if the Halos actually spoke with any of these speculative candidates, or if the team was impressed enough by what they heard from Suzuki that they went ahead and made the hire.

Like Pujols and Hunter, Suzuki has no experience managing or coaching at the Major League or minor league levels.  Since his retirement following the 2022 season, Suzuki moved into his role as a special assistant to Angels GM Perry Minasian.  This wasn’t Suzuki’s only foray into a managerial search, however, as the Giants interviewed him about their own dugout vacancy earlier this month.  (It would appear that San Francisco is instead going with University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello for that job, though a deal between the two sides isn’t yet finalized.)

The 42-year-old Suzuki becomes the latest in a long line of ex-catchers to become MLB managers, and the Angels’ pick continues a more recent trend towards teams hiring fairly recently retired players without much or any of a managerial or coaching background.  The Guardians’ Stephen Vogt is perhaps the most prominent example of this, as Vogt retired after the 2022 season, and then spent a year on the Mariners’ coaching staff before Cleveland tabbed him as Terry Francona’s replacement.

In regards to the Angels, Suzuki’s hire is a departure from the organization’s preference towards experienced managers under Arte Moreno’s ownership.  Mike Scioscia was inherited as the skipper when Moreno bought the team in 2003 and Scioscia continued managing through the 2018 season.  From there, the Halos hired Brad Ausmus and Joe Maddon as their next two skippers, before Maddon was fired partway through the 2022 campaign and replaced by interim manager Phil Nevin (who had never managed a big league club).  Nevin remained in charge through 2023 before he too was let go, and longtime former Rangers manager Ron Washington was brought on board in advance of the 2024 campaign.

Washington’s own tenure was cut short by health reasons, as he went on a leave of absence this past June to recover from quadruple bypass surgery.  Bench coach Ray Montgomery took over managerial duties for the remainder of this season, and while Washington hoped to return to the job in 2026, the Angels instead decided to go in an entirely new direction by hiring another manager.

The fact that Suzuki will be the seventh different person to manage the Angels within a nine-year span speaks to the difficult challenge facing Suzuki in his new job.  Los Angeles has posted losing records in each of the last 10 seasons, and has been to the playoffs just once in their last 16 seasons.  A number of ill-advised signings, lack of farm system help, and a general sense of instability has plagued the franchise, with Moreno’s heavy-handed interference in baseball operations often cited as the reason for the team’s lack of success.  Minasian has been the general manager since November 2020 and is under contract through 2026, but he is also the Angels’ fifth GM under Moreno (Bill Stoneman had separate stints as the full-time GM and as an interim GM).

Suzuki naturally has an idea of what he’s getting into, having worked in the Halos’ front office for three years and spending his final two seasons as a player with the team.  The Hawaii native’s ties to the Anaheim area date back to his college days as a player with Cal State Fullerton, and his playing career began as a second-round pick for the Athletics in the 2004 draft.  Suzuki suited up for five different teams over his 16-year playing career, which was highlighted by an All-Star appearance with the Twins in 2014 and a World Series ring with the Nationals in 2019.

With the Angels’ position now filled, there are still seven other teams on the hunt for new managers in 2026.  The Giants, Padres, Orioles, Braves, Twins, Nationals, and Rockies all need new skippers, though Colorado will first be hiring a new top front office executive before turning its attention to a managerial search.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Suzuki hiring. Photo courtesy of David Banks – Imagn Images

A’s Could Explore Second/Third Base Markets

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The A’s have around two-thirds of their starting lineup in place going into the offseason. While starting pitching should be the primary focus, they have some questions on the infield that may need to be addressed externally.

Second baseman Zack Gelof underwent surgery after dislocating his left shoulder with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the team announced last week that third baseman Brett Harris underwent surgery to repair the UCL in his left thumb (link via Jason Burke of Sports Illustrated). The injuries cloud what were already the two weakest positions in the lineup heading into the winter.

Martín Gallegos of MLB.com writes that Harris is expected to be ready for Spring Training. General manager David Forst was noncommittal about Gelof’s timeline, telling Gallegos that they’ll need to “wait further in the offseason to know exactly what [that] is.” It doesn’t appear that Gelof is locked into the starting second base job even once he’s healthy. Forst told Gallegos that the A’s will “be open to a lot of possibilities” at each of second and third base.

That presumably includes looking outside the organization. The A’s don’t have great internal options at either spot. Darell Hernaiz got some late-season run at all three infield positions to the left of first base (including everyday shortstop work while Jacob Wilson was out with a broken arm). Hernaiz put a lot of balls in play but didn’t hit the ball hard enough to make an impact, batting .231/.292/.306 across 197 plate appearances.

[Related: A’s Offseason Outlook]

Former first-round pick Max Muncy had a tough rookie season, hitting .214/.259/.379 over 220 trips to the plate. He struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances and lost most of the second half to a broken hand. The 27-year-old Harris got regular third base reps over the final six weeks of the season. He hit .274 with a .349 on-base percentage but didn’t connect on a home run in 32 games. Max Schuemann is the only other utility infielder on the 40-man roster. He’s coming off a .197/.295/.273 showing and isn’t guaranteed to hold his roster spot all winter.

Gelof has shown the most promise of that group. The former second-round pick hit 14 homers with a .267/.337/.504 slash line over 69 games as a rookie in 2023. He has followed that up with consecutive tough years. Gelof led the American League with 188 strikeouts in ’24, causing his average (.211) and on-base percentage (.270) to plummet.

Injuries limited him to 30 MLB games this past season. He sustained a wrist fracture on a Spring Training hit-by-pitch and underwent hamate surgery. A stress reaction in his ribs set him back when he was on a rehab assignment six weeks later. Gelof didn’t make his season debut until July 4. The A’s optioned him to Triple-A a week later and kept him in the minors until late August. He got a few weeks of run before suffering the dislocated shoulder. While the stop and start nature of his season didn’t do him any favors, Gelof’s contact issues worsened. He struck out 46 times in 101 plate appearances while whiffing on more than 40% of his swings.

Top prospect Leo De Vries, the centerpiece of the Mason Miller return, may be the long-term answer at second base. De Vries has come up as a shortstop but could eventually move to the other side of the bag to play alongside Wilson in the middle infield. He’s coming off a .255/.355/.451 showing as an 18-year-old between High-A and Double-A. De Vries has a chance to get to the big leagues next year, but it’s hard to imagine the A’s would carry him on the Opening Day roster. He only has 21 games at Double-A and has no Triple-A experience. A second half debut is more reasonable and would still be remarkable for a player who turned 19 two weeks ago.

The A’s will want to keep one long-term infield spot available for De Vries. Their needs at second and third base mean they could pursue a controllable infielder at one spot while looking for a stopgap at the other. Brendan Donovan and Ozzie Albies each have two years of club control remaining and could be available on the trade market. Josh Jung and Alec Bohm are change-of-scenery candidates at third base. Jung has three years of remaining control and is projected at a $2.9MM salary, though it’s possible the Rangers would prefer to trade him outside the division. Bohm is projected for a salary in the $10MM range for his last arbitration season.

This isn’t a great class for free agent infielders. The A’s obviously aren’t signing Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman. Each of Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim (if he opts out) could be available for two or three years, but they’re all going to command eight-figure salaries on an annual basis. Willi Castro, Yoán Moncada, Luis Rengifo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be available on one-year or cheap two-year deals at most. Signing someone from that group would aim a little higher than last winter’s deals with Luis Urías and Gio Urshela but would be broadly similar pickups.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.

No-Doubters

This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.

Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.

Likely Recipients

All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.

King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.

Borderline Calls

Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.

The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. Whether to make the QO will come down to Boston’s risk tolerance on the elbow.

The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.

Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons. How much has the final six weeks soured the Cubs on his future projection?

Unlikely/Long Shots

This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.

Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.

Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.

Ineligible

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

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MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Before we move on to the pitching, we’ll wrap up the offensive group by looking at the designated hitters. Every position player technically could play DH, of course, but the vast majority of the class has been covered in one of our prior positional previews. We’ll limit this look to players who are either primary designated hitters or took at least 200 plate appearances at the position this year. Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

Top of the Class

Kyle Schwarber (33)

With the exception of Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber is the top free agent designated hitter in years. He’s going to become the first pure DH to sign a nine-figure contract after blasting an NL-best 56 home runs and leading MLB with 132 runs driven in. Schwarber played in all 162 games and batted .240/.365/.563 over 724 trips to the plate.

Schwarber hit 38+ homers in all four seasons of the free agent contract he’d signed with Philadelphia. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he’s among the five best power hitters in the sport. He’s also adored in the Philly clubhouse, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made no secret about their desire to keep him. Schwarber is going to decline a qualifying offer and should be in position for a four-year contract that pays more than $25MM annually. There’s a non-zero chance that a team stretches to five years to push the overall guarantee above $130MM.

Regular DH Options

Josh Bell (33)

The ever streaky Bell alternated bad and excellent months throughout the season. He had a .730 OPS or below in each of April, June and August while posting an .860 or better in May, July and September. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 batting line with 22 home runs across 533 plate appearances. For all his inconsistency within seasons, Bell has reliably ended up as a slightly above-average hitter in each of the past three years. He should command another one-year deal.

Starling Marte (37)

After consecutive seasons of declining production, Marte had a bit of a rebound in a part-time role for the Mets. He hit .270/.335/.410 over 329 plate appearances. Marte only hit seven homers and isn’t the kind of power bat that teams will want as an everyday DH, but he can take 250-300 at-bats while playing a part-time corner outfield role.

Andrew McCutchen (39)

Cutch has signed a series of one-year, $5MM deals with the Pirates over the past few seasons. This year’s .239/.333/.367 line with 13 homers is his worst production of his three-year second stint in Pittsburgh. McCutchen still has a strong awareness of the strike zone, but he’s no longer a threat for 25-30 homers at this stage of his career. It seems likely he’ll work out another cheap one-year deal with the Bucs.

Marcell Ozuna (35)

Ozuna is the cheap alternative to Schwarber as a true everyday designated hitter. He’s only one season removed from being one of the sport’s best offensive players. Ozuna combined for 79 home runs with a .289/.364/.552 slash between 2023-24. He’s coming off an underwhelming walk year at age 34, as he regressed to a .232/.355/.400 batting line with 21 homers over 592 trips to the plate. It’s still above-average offensive output but not great production for a player who hasn’t logged a single inning on defense in two years.

The in-season trend lines were not encouraging. Ozuna hit .280/.426/.457 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts through the end of May. For a while, he looked as if he’d be one of the best rental hitters available at the trade deadline. He then went through a three-month slog in which he hit .185/.300/.362 over 278 plate appearances. That killed any chance of the Braves getting more than marginal salary relief, so they kept him for the stretch run. Ozuna rebounded somewhat to hit .261 in September, but he struck out at a 32% clip and only connected on one home run in the season’s final month. He’ll be limited to a one-year deal that might be half of the $16MM salary he collected this past season.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 line.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He’s a long shot candidate for a qualifying offer but will likely hit free agency without draft compensation. He should get at least a two-year deal and has a chance for three.

Bench Bats

Wilmer Flores (34)

Flores got out to a strong start to the season, popping seven home runs with a penchant for clutch hits in April. He had a pedestrian .245/.315/.365 batting line from the beginning of May onwards. Flores has made a career as a versatile defender who hits left-handed pitching, but he’s essentially limited to DH and first base at this point. He only has a .228/.278/.371 slash against southpaws over the past two seasons and may need to take a minor league deal.

Mitch Garver (35)

Garver logged nearly 400 innings behind the plate as Cal Raleigh’s backup. The Mariners signed him with the expectation that he’d be their primary designated hitter, but he hit .187/.290/.341 in 201 games over two seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Justin Turner (41)

Turner got $6MM from the Cubs last offseason to work as a veteran righty bat off the bench. He hit .219/.288/.314 over 80 games in his age-40 season and is probably looking at a minor league deal if he continues playing.

Jesse Winker (32)

Winker landed a $7.5MM guarantee to re-sign with the Mets last offseason. He’ll probably be limited to minor league offers this winter after oblique and back injuries limited him to 26 games.

Player Options

Joc Pederson (34)

Pederson will exercise a $16.5MM player option with Texas after hitting .181/.285/.328 over 306 plate appearances. The Rangers will need a huge rebound from a player who’d hit .275/.393/.515 with the Diamondbacks in 2024.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles came into 2025 as contenders but their season fell apart quickly. They have the pieces to bounce back in 2026 but what remains to be seen is how aggressive they will be in making offseason upgrades.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2026 guarantees (assuming the Enns option is picked up): $20.5MM
Total future commitments: $103MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Mountcastle, Akin, Carlson, Castillo, Cano, Jackson

Free Agents

As seen up top, the O's have almost no long-term commitments. They have a large arbitration class but none of the projections are particularly onerous. Even with those arb players, RosterResource projects the club for a paltry $69MM payroll next year, almost $100MM below what they spent in 2025. A few non-tenders should give them even more breathing room.

All that potential payroll capacity doesn't guarantee of aggressive moves, however. They also had lots of dry powder last winter and still kept things fairly modest. The only multi-year pact was a three-year deal for Tyler O'Neill with an opt-out after the first season. Otherwise, it was one-year deals for veteran players like Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano.

The starting pitching investments were particularly underwhelming. The O's clearly needed more in the rotation. Since it was the first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein, some fans believed a new level of spending was possible. In November, then-general manager Mike Elias set the expectations fairly high. "You’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open," he said. "That involves high-end free agent deals over many years. We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”

But the O's ended up with a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano. The rotation ended up being a source of frustration for the O's all year. A spring injury to Grayson Rodriguez quickly cut into the depth and led the O's to a mid-March signing of Kyle Gibson. In April, Zach Eflin hit the injured list and Morton struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen. Gibson came up to try to patch the holes but he was torched in four starts and released in May. Plenty of other guys struggled to put good numbers together as well.

The season quickly slipped away. They were 12-18 at the end of April and then went 9-18 in May. They were better the rest of the way but it was too late to get the season back on track. They went into the deadline as sellers and were aggressive in trading away veterans for prospects.

Going into 2026, the rotation again needs some work, though there have been some positive developments. Trevor Rogers took a while to get on track in 2025, starting the season on the IL with a knee injury, but had an amazing finish. He posted a 1.81 earned run average over 18 starts. It's not realistic to expect him to stay that good over a longer sample but the numbers under the hood are promising. Kyle Bradish got back on the mound after his 2024 Tommy John surgery. He only made six starts in the majors but also made six more as part of his rehab.

Rogers and Bradish make for a strong one-two punch atop the rotation. Rodriguez would be another front-of-rotation option but he missed the entire season due to elbow and shoulder issues. He's expected to be ready for spring training but the O's will probably have to be mindful of his workload for a while. Guys like Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Tyler Wells can fill in the back but adding another front-end guy makes sense, something Elias has admitted. Will the poor 2025 season prompt a bolder strike this offseason?

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Astros Sign Nate Pearson

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October 21: Houston officially announced their one-year deal with Pearson on Tuesday. According to The Associated Press, the deal includes $150K in incentives. He’d earn $50K for reaching 50 innings and $50K apiece at 20 and 25 starts.

October 17: The Astros are in agreement with right-hander Nate Pearson on a one-year, $1.35MM guarantee, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Pearson, a client of Excel Sports Management, is expected to work as a starter. The deal also includes performance bonuses.

Pearson will get the opportunity to pitch out of the rotation for the first time since his brief MLB debut in 2020. The hard-throwing righty made four starts as a rookie with Toronto. He’s made 118 appearances over the past five seasons, and all but two have been out of the bullpen. Pearson spent the last season and a half with the Cubs. He came to Chicago in 2024 via a midseason trade from Toronto.

Pearson made 11 appearances with the Cubs this past season. He broke camp with the team, but gave up 10 earned runs over his first 8 2/3 innings and soon found himself back at Triple-A. Pearson made it back up for a weekend in June, only to be hammered for five earned runs in his lone appearance. His final stint with the big-league club would be two solid outings in August, when he tossed four scoreless innings. In total, Pearson posted a 9.20 ERA across 14 2/3 MLB innings, including an untenable 7:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chicago released Pearson during the final week of the regular season.

A major-league agreement for Pearson might seem surprising given his recent output at the highest level, but his results were much better at Triple-A Iowa. Pearson recorded a 2.22 ERA with a stellar 30.6% K% across 38 minor-league outings. Free passes remained a problem (12.9% walk rate), but Triple-A batters hit just .170 against Pearson.

Houston is likely betting on pedigree here. Pearson was a first-round selection for Toronto back in 2017. His development was delayed by a broken arm and an oblique injury in 2018, but he broke through with a tremendous 2019 season in the minors. Pearson tossed 101 2/3 innings across three levels, notching a 2.30 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate over 25 starts. He entered the 2020 campaign as a top 10 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

Pearson made five appearances with the Blue Jays in the shortened 2020 season before an elbow injury cut his year short. Injuries would continue to derail him moving forward. A litany of health issues capped Pearson at 45 2/3 innings in 2021 and 30 2/3 frames in 2022. He stayed healthy for 2023 and 2024, working exclusively as a reliever with the Blue Jays before being dealt to Chicago.

Houston has some uncertainty in the rotation heading into 2026. Framber Valdez is a free agent. The club lost Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, and Brandon Walter to Tommy John surgery. Spencer Arrighetti’s season ended prematurely due to elbow concerns. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. were healthy to close the season, but have dealt with injuries of their own. Jason Alexander went from depth option to rotation mainstay after getting scooped up as a waiver claim. Hunter Brown is the only rock-solid member of the staff at the moment. Pearson comes with plenty of his own question marks, but the risk is minimal. He could return to a bullpen role if starting doesn’t work out.

Image courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images.

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