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Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $22.025MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — for the 2025 draft, five total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day.

These lower-spending teams usually don’t splurge on bigger-name free agents in general, yet last offseason saw the Diamondbacks sign Corbin Burnes, and the Athletics (!) sign Luis Severino.  The Tigers also made a push to land Alex Bregman, and Detroit might feel more pressure about sealing the deal on a splashy move this winter since Tarik Skubal is only a year away from free agency.  The Orioles or Reds could be candidates to spend a little more than usual, with Cincinnati trying to build on a playoff appearance and Baltimore trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025.  Seattle could also explore qualified free agents, but the M’s are more likely to first focus on trying to re-sign one of their own guys in Josh Naylor, who isn’t eligible for a QO.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Rangers, Angels, White Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The rebuilding Cardinals and White Sox and won’t be spending big in free agency.  The same is very likely true of the Nationals, whose own rebuild period is likely to be extended since new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni will need time to evaluate (and overhaul) the organization.  Texas is planning to either stand pat on spending or reduce payroll.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have generally been more inclined to build their roster through trades or their own farm system rather than long-term free agent deals, but Atlanta could change tactics after a losing season in 2025.  The Angels figure to be active in free agency, even if spending bigger on a qualified free agent might not necessarily be on the radar.  San Francisco signed qualified free agent Willy Adames last winter, and are again expected to at least check in many of the major free agent names.  There doesn’t appear to be much optimism that the Cubs will re-sign Kyle Tucker, but they could respond to a Tucker departure by making some other prominent signings.

Part of the equation for these clubs and the clubs in the next two categories could be what other picks they’re receiving this winter, to balance out their draft capital.  For instance, if Tucker rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the Cubs would get a compensatory pick just before the start of the third round of the draft.  While a lower selection than whatever Chicago’s second-highest pick would be, getting another draft pick back and then losing a pick to sign a qualified free agent somewhat makes it a wash for the Cubs.

Teams In Limbo: Astros

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Astros managed to sneak under the $241MM tax threshold. RosterResource has Houston slightly under the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Astros slightly over the line.  Given this discrepancy and the narrow margins involved, we’ll keep the Astros in their own special grouping until the league issues the official Competitive Balance Tax numbers in December.

Since Houston were tax-payors in 2024, the Astros might have reset their CBT status if they were indeed able to stay under the $241MM line.  Being a two-time payor means an escalating tax rate, and that tax bill would keep escalating if the Astros again finished over the $244MM threshold in 2026.  (Caveat: the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so the qualifying offer system or luxury tax system might very well be adjusted or even heavily changed in a new CBA, so a repeater-tax status might no longer be a concern to the Astros or other teams.)

Staying under the 2025 tax line also means the Astros could be more willing to explore signing qualified free agents, though their tax-payor status last winter didn’t stop the team from signing Christian Walker.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft.

All seven of these clubs are clearly in win-now mode, so the higher penalties shouldn’t be much of an obstacle towards a pursuit of qualified free agents in most cases.  (The Padres are the probable exception since they’re operating within a narrower payroll margin.)  Since every team would prefer to keep their draft picks if they can help it, the tax payors might target non-qualified free agents who aren’t tied to draft compensation.  For instance, while the Dodgers are expected to at least check in Tucker’s market, Los Angeles could consider any number of other free agents before aiming at the outfielder that will cost the most in both contract size and additional draft penalties.

Since re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent comes with no penalty, this could make some of these clubs more inclined to retain their own impending free agents rather than seek out new talent.  Bregman and the Red Sox have mutual interest in a reunion, the Phillies have been public with their desire to keep Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keeping tabs on Bo Bichette.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2026 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

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The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $22.025MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2025 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the one-year pact and forego free agency altogether to stick with his club.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.

Looking at these teams’ members of the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff are the only likely-to-reasonable qualifying offer candidates.  You could also make a case for the Tigers issuing Jack Flaherty a QO if he rejects his $20MM player option for 2026.  Notable impending free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are examples of players who are ineligible for the QO because they only joined the Mariners partway through the season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Rangers, Angels, White Sox

For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50MM).  The Red Sox were a member of this group in 2024 because they weren’t tax-payors, and thus Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.

The chief name to watch here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will probably command the largest deal of any player in the 2025-26 free agent class.  Chicago could also issue a QO to Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would first require the Cubs to decide on a series of club options and attached player options for Imanaga, so quite a few hoops have to be jumped through for Imanaga to actually hit the open market.

Teams In Limbo: Astros

It is usually pretty obvious which teams are well over or well under the luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025), and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of estimating the ebbs and flows of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons.  The league’s accounting office naturally has the full set of salary data from each team, and thus we won’t know each club’s official status until MLB releases their information in December.

For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear.  RosterResource has the Astros with an approximate tax number of $238.2MM that keeps them under the threshold, while Cot’s has Houston over the line with a $244MM tax number.  If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for a second straight year, they’ll face the increased “second-time payor” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent over $241MM, which works out to $900K if Cot’s $244MM projection is accurate.

While the actual tax bill of $900K is negligible, the more sizeable impact for the Astros would be in regards to impending free agent Framber Valdez.  The veteran southpaw will surely be issued a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out that they stayed under the tax threshold.  If their tax number is indeed more than $244MM, Houston joins the next group of…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft.  As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.

As it turns out, many of the most obvious qualifying-offer candidates of this winter’s free agent class happen to come from tax-paying teams.  The Phillies have Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, the Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King, the Blue Jays have Bo Bichette, the Mets have Edwin Diaz (who is likely to opt out of his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham’s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate.  Boston’s Lucas Giolito is a borderline QO case, plus his season-ending elbow issue may weigh into whatever decision the Red Sox make on the qualifying offer front.

Willson Contreras’s Move To First Base Was A Success

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It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals made the decision to move three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to first base after the veteran slugger indicated he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis ahead of their impending rebuild. That decision was intended to open up the catcher position so that younger players more tied to the future of the franchise, like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, could get reps at the position and prove themselves capable as regulars in the majors.

Getting opportunities for those young players was a sensible goal, but it didn’t come without risk. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at first base would be a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter he’s not always been able to produce enough offensively to justify a role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras also had just 11 appearances (three starts) on his resume at the position prior to 2025, the most recent of which had come all the way back in 2019, so learning a new position would place additional challenges on the veteran as he headed into his age-33 season.

At first, the experiment looked like it was poised to be a failure. Contreras came out of the gate ice cold in 2025, with a .145/.198/.237 slash line in his first 82 trips to the plate that was difficult to stomach from a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll regarding Contreras’s future suggested that he would be either a league average hitter or worse in 2025, while just 34% of respondents believed Contreras would be able to rebound to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to overcome expectations and do just that. Flash forward to the end of the season, and Contreras is now coming off a solid .257/.344/.447 campaign. His 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 122 and only slightly below the 129 he’s posted to this point in his Cardinals career.

While that rebound from Contreras is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ from first base isn’t exactly the sort of production that one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first baseman, Contreras ranked just 12th by wRC+ and actually wound up tied with teammate Alec Burleson, who is entering arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Burleson for a salary of just $3.5MM in 2025, a figure that comes in well below the $36.5MM Contreras is owed over the next two years. Given that they can get similar production for much less money in-house, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals were hoping once again to trade Contreras this winter. For his part, Contreras has stated he prefers to remain in St. Louis but will at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.

While Contreras’s production this year might not be commensurate with his salary now that he’s a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there’s plenty of positive signs in Contreras’s performance that leave the door wide open for him to deliver at a high level offensively in the coming years. From May 1 onward, Contreras hit a much more robust .268/.357/.480 with a wRC+ of 136. That’s good for the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball among first basemen during that period, behind only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Busch.

Many players would look a great deal more impressive if you ignored their worst month of the year, of course, but Contreras’s underlying numbers reveal reason for further optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near perfect match for the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance came with a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least some reason to believe he could match that performance again in the future.

Contreras’s 13.8% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this year were both career highs despite a .190 ISO that was one of the weakest of his career. That drop in ISO and walk rate that dropped to just 7.8% this year were the weakest parts of Contreras’s profile as a hitter this season, and a look at his swing decisions this year reveals the cause of that flaw. Contreras’s contact rate spiked to 73.6% this year, the highest its been since 2018. That’s not a bad thing in isolation, but digging a little deeper reveals that almost all of that improvement came on pitches outside of the strike zone, while he actually swung at pitches inside the zone far less often than he had in the past. Contreras took a swing at just 65.7% of pitches in the strike zone this year, a nearly four-point drop from the previous three seasons.

With Contreras’s impressive underlying power metrics this year, it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to access more of that power in games than he did this year. Even if that adjustment doesn’t come, however, one major feather in Contreras’s cap is his work with the glove at first base this year. Despite learning the position on the fly this past winter, the veteran posted +6 Outs Above Average this season. Just three first basemen (Olson, Ty France, and Carlos Santana) beat that mark this season, and it stands to reason that Contreras could build on his performance next year now that he has more experience under his belt.

Whether Contreras ultimately ends up finishing out his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or getting traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view the contract as anything other than a success for the club. In the first four seasons of his five year deal with the organization, Contreras has hit .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games for the Cardinals despite injuries and multiple moves off of his natural position. While the incoming ABS challenge system next year and the lack of catching depth around the league could make the idea of Contreras moving back behind the plate appealing for some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras proved himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role regardless of if he does so in St. Louis or elsewhere.

Jesus Montero Passes Away

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Former big league catcher Jesus Montero passed away recently, according to a report from El Extrabase. The report indicates that Montero was part of a serious traffic accident on October 5 and passed following several days in the hospital. Montero was just 35 years old.

Montero is best known for having been one of the league’s most elite prospects in the early 2010s. Signed out of Venezuela by the Yankees as an amateur, Montero made his pro debut in 2007 at the age of 17. His second professional season saw him break out at the Single-A level, where he hit .326/.376/.491 with 17 homers and 34 doubles in 132 games. That strong performance earned Montero plenty of attention prior to the 2009 season, when he became a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.

The youngster’s prospect star continued to shoot upwards from there. His 2009 season was cut short by a broken finger that limited him to just 92 games, but he raked when healthy and looked entirely capable in 44 games at the Double-A level. That was enough to get him promoted to Triple-A for the start of the 2010 season, at which point Montero was viewed as a consensus top-5 prospect in the sport. Baseball America went as far as to name him the sport’s #3 prospect, behind only future Hall of Famers Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Montero did what he could to deliver on the hype at Triple-A in 2010, slashing .289/.353/.517 with 21 homers and 34 doubles in 123 games.

The next step for Montero was the majors, and after spending most of the 2011 season at Triple-A he finally made his big league debut with the Yankees on September 1 against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. While he did not record a hit in his first big league game, Montero was hit by a pitch in his first game and recorded a run scored. He went on to post incredible numbers down the stretch, with a .328/.406/.590 slash line across 69 plate appearances. He made the Yankees’ postseason roster and got into Game 4 of the ALDS against the Tigers, where he went 2-for-2 with a run scored and an RBI.

That would be Montero’s last appearance in a Yankees uniform. In January of 2012, he was traded to the Mariners in what at the time was viewed as a blockbuster deal. Montero and teammate Hector Noesi were shipped to Seattle in exchange for All-Star right-hander Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos. Pineda didn’t live up to his sensational rookie campaign after being traded to New York, but did manage to post a solid 4.16 ERA in 89 starts from 2014 to 2017 with the Yankees after battling injuries in his first two seasons with the team. Neither Noesi nor Campos had much impact in the majors, though Noesi did manage to pitch in parts for six MLB seasons.

As for Montero, the star prospect split time between catcher and DH for the Mariners in 2012 as an everyday player. Unfortunately, his season did not go as either he or Seattle were surely hoping it would. Montero was solid enough at the plate but hit just .260/.298/.386 with 15 doubles and 20 homers. It was a roughly league average performance, but with Montero still in his age-22 campaign there was plenty of reason for optimism that he would be able to take off in the future. That did not come to pass, however, as Montero struggled early in the 2013 season before being sidelined by a torn meniscus and accepting a 50-game suspension as part of the Biogensis scandal.

A combination of injuries, under-performance, and the aforementioned suspension left Montero limited to just 73 games in the majors between 2013 and 2015. In that time, he hit a disappointing .217/.255/.374 in 243 plate appearances. Prior to the 2016 season, the Mariners designated Montero for assignment. He went on to play in the minor leagues for the Blue Jays and Orioles throughout the 2016 and ’17 seasons and even found himself named to the Triple-A All-Star game during his time with Triple-A Buffalo, but was suspended for a second time for the use of a banned substance.

Montero played in the Mexican League in 2017 and 2018 before logging 29 games in Venezuelan winter league play. He played his last professional baseball game during the 2020-21 winter league season. In all, Montero made it into 226 MLB games across parts of five seasons and hit .253/.295/.398 with 28 home runs and 31 doubles.

We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Montero’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Mets Expected To Show Interest In Tarik Skubal

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Ahead of his final year under team control, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has gotten plenty of attention as fans and clubs alike have begun to turn their attention towards the offseason. Detroit’s reported extension offer of less than $100MM over four years last offseason does not inspire confidence that the club will be able to lock him up long-term, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer about Skubal’s future during his end-of-season press conference this past week. It’s impossible to say at this point whether Detroit would consider trading their ace this winter, but Will Sammon of The Athletic writes that the Mets are expected to be involved in that market if Skubal were to be made available.

That’s not exactly a surprise. The Mets had perhaps the most disappointing season in baseball this year given that they missed the postseason during Juan Soto’s first season in Queens after signing a $765MM deal last winter. Much of that disappointment can be chalked up to a lackluster rotation that crumbled down the stretch and posted a 5.09 ERA after July 1 that was good for just 25th in the majors. Injuries and underperformance from virtually every established arm in the rotation mix besides Clay Holmes and David Peterson left New York on the outside looking in this postseason, and while youngsters like Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong offer some optimism for the future, it would be understandable for the Mets to seek more certainty this winter than they can offer.

When it comes to starting pitching, there might be no pitcher this side of Paul Skenes who offers more certainty than Skubal. He’s pitched to a 2.30 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 4.5% walk rate across 387 2/3 innings of work over the past two seasons. That work has already won him one Cy Young award and is likely to win him a second next month. He’s also managed to take things up a notch when the lights are brightest and dominate in the postseason, with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and 37.8% strikeout rate across six playoff starts. Of the 33 starting pitchers with at least 20 postseason innings over the past five years, Skubal boasts the highest strikeout rate, best SIERA, and the fifth-lowest ERA.

Skubal’s resume speaks for itself, and in a free agent market that looks relatively soft on starting pitching options he figures to be all the more attractive. With that being said, there are some reasons to think the Mets might not go all-in for Skubal even if the Tigers do make him available. The lefty is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency rather than sign extensions. That would seem to make it unlikely that the Mets (or any other acquiring club) would be able to keep Skubal long-term after trading for him unless they outbid the field next winter.

New York certainly has the financial wherewithal to do that, but (as the Soto signing last winter showed) they could also look to do so without surrendering what figures to be a massive prospect package to acquire his final year of team control. Sammon suggests that the Mets would be open to considering a deal involving any player besides McLean, who posted a 2.06 ERA in eight starts this year and is viewed as a potential ace in his own right. Sammon speculates that the Tigers could ask for a package along the lines of Tong and Sproat plus top infield prospect Jett Williams in exchange for Skubal’s services.

It should be highlighted that Sammon’s suggested package is purely speculative, but it’s still worth noting that it would be quite out of character for president of baseball operations David Stearns to surrender so much young talent for a one-year rental. That willingness to prioritize the farm system is something that he seemingly has backing from ownership on, given previous comments by Steve Cohen about the club’s current level of spending being unsustainable in the long-term and a desire to support massive deals for players like Soto and Francisco Lindor with young, homegrown talent.

The other side of that conversation is the reality that if the Mets are going to improve their rotation headed into next year, they’ll need to spend either prospect capital or more dollars. Even so, those other avenues to improving could be preferable to giving up a massive package to land Skubal. Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is expected to be available in trade this winter, and Sammon floats him as an example of a pitcher who likely could be had for a lower prospect cost than Skubal. The Mets have been unafraid of rolling the dice on pitchers with question marks in the past during free agency, and the upside a player like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, or Ranger Suarez could offer is immense.

Those alternative options may end up being necessary to pursue even if the Mets decide to pursue Skubal. There’s no guarantees the Tigers will make him available at all, and even if they do New York would hardly be the only suitor for his services. Last offseason’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet should serve as a reminder that the Mets aren’t as able to easily outbid the competition on the trade market as they are in free agency; the Red Sox and Craig Breslow were able to offer a massive package for Crochet that few teams in the sport would have been able to match, and even the improved farm system Stearns finds himself with this winter isn’t impossible to outbid with McLean likely off the table.

Rob Refsnyder Plans To Play In 2026

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Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder flirted with retirement last offseason, but ultimately decided to continue his career in Boston. Now that he’s headed into his age-35 season, however, it appears he’s less conflicted about his future. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reported yesterday that Refsnyder intends to continue his playing career in 2026, and he’s already had “informal talks” with Boston about the possibility of a return.

It’s understandable that Refsnyder would want to keep going after the year he’s had. In 70 games for the Red Sox, Refsnyder raked to the tune of a .269/.354/.484 slash line across 209 plate appearances. That was more or less a repeat of his excellent 2024, and he now enters free agency coming off a two year stretch where he’s slashed .278/.357/.476 in 163 games (516 plate appearances). In that time, he’s clubbed 20 homers with 28 doubles with a 25.6% strikeout rate against a 10.1% walk rate.

That’s incredibly strong production for a bench player, though it should be noted he sports a massive platoon split. Refsnyder is hitting .302/.396/.554 (160 wRC+) against southpaws over the past two years, but in that same time he’s hit a mediocre .250/.310/.387 (94 wRC+) against right-handed pitchers. That production against righties dropped to just .212/.268/.348 (67 wRC+) this season, leaving him has a far less viable bat against same-handed pitching. Even with that step back against right-handers this year, Refsnyder should enjoy a strong market by bench bat standards.

It’s not completely out of the question that a club could see Refsnyder as a candidate for a larger role, given his overall production the past two seasons and solid numbers against same-handed pitching in 2024. His more significant platoon split in 2025 likely puts a damper on those efforts, however, and he still figures to fit best on a team where he can be used as a part-time player. The Red Sox still make plenty of sense for his services given their heavily left-handed outfield mix. Having Refsnyder in the fold to complement Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida would go a long way to keeping Boston’s offense balanced next year.

There are a handful of other teams Refsnyder could make plenty of sense for as well, however. The Diamondbacks traded Randal Grichuk away at the deadline but have an outfield and DH mix that’s similarly heavy on lefties with Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and Pavin Smith all playing roles. The Cubs could view Refsnyder as an upgrade over Justin Turner who could be deployed as a platoon partner for Moises Ballesteros or Owen Caissie in the event that one of those lefty-swinging rookies takes over Kyle Tucker’s spot in the Chicago lineup. The Royals and Guardians both struggled to get production out of their outfielders this year and could view Refsnyder as a way to significantly improve their offense without breaking the bank.

Giants Close To Hiring Tony Vitello As Manager

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3:15pm: The decision on whether Vitello will be the next manager of the Giants or not is expected within the next 24 to 72 hours, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Passan adds that while Vitello is the “top target” of San Francisco at this point, the sides have yet to reach a deal.

1:56pm: The Giants’ managerial search seems to be nearing an end, with a surprising name emerging from the college ranks.  The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, Brittany Ghiroli, and Ken Rosenthal report that “the Giants are closing in on hiring” University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello as their next skipper.  Vitello told The Athletic by text that “there is nothing to confirm” about the news, and the Giants also haven’t commented on the report.

The 47-year-old Vitello was an assistant baseball coach for Missouri (his alma mater), TCU, and Arkansas from 2003-2017 before being hired for the top job at Tennessee in June 2017.  The Volunteers have since become an elite program, with a 341-131 record under Vitello’s watch and the school’s first NCAA national championship in baseball in 2024.  Beyond that College World Series victory, the Vols also reached the World Series in both 2021 and 2023, and they were SEC regular-season and tournament champions in both 2022 and 2024.

Beyond this sterling record in NCAA baseball, however, Vitello has no experience as a player, coach, or manager in professional baseball.  There have been examples in recent years of teams reaching out to hire college coaches or assistants to big league coaching staffs, yet hiring a manager without any experience in an MLB organization is a step beyond.  Brewers skipper Pat Murphy is a notable example of a current manager with lots of college head coaching experience, but as Baggarly/Ghiroli/Rosenthal note, Murphy had many years as a minor league manager and a big league bench coach (not to mention a stint as the Padres’ interim manager) in between his NCAA work and his managerial job with the Brewers.

Vitello’s name doesn’t come out of the blue, as Baggarly mentioned him as a possible managerial candidate a little under three weeks ago, when rumors were swirling about Bob Melvin being on the way out in San Francisco.  Baggarly felt the Giants would be looking for “a younger manager who operates with a high motor” as Melvin’s replacement, and the names linked to the team’s managerial search have generally fit this description.  Former Orioles manager Brandon Hyde and Royals third base coach Vance Wilson are both 52 years old, and former catchers Kurt Suzuki and Nick Hundley are both 42 years old.

In regards to Hundley, the Athletic reporters note that he is now “expected to remain in Texas” in his current job as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Chris Young.  Past reports indicated Hundley was a big candidate and possibly the front-runner for the San Francisco job, but Hundley will now remain with the Rangers.  It isn’t known if the Giants simply preferred to go with Vitello, or if Hundley may have taken himself out of the running, as he did in 2023 when he was previously considered as a candidate for the Giants’ last managerial vacancy.

Assuming Vitello indeed ends up in San Francisco, it represents a bold move for both the coach and for the Giants organization.  Vitello would be “leaving the comfort of his fiefdom for a job that offers anything but stability,” as the Athletic trio puts it.  From the perspective of president of baseball operations Buster Posey, replacing a three-time MLB manager of the year in Melvin with someone entirely new to pro baseball is a huge swing for Posey’s very first managerial hire since taking over the Giants’ front office a year ago.

The Giants’ 107-win season in 2021 represents the team’s only playoff appearance and winning record in the last nine years, as San Francisco’s next best marks were 81-81 record in both 2022 and 2025.  This season’s .500 record wasn’t enough for Posey in the wake of some big long-term acquisitions (Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers) within the last year, and Melvin’s dismissal was the latest step in Posey wanting to entirely put his stamp on the franchise’s operations.

There would be no shortage of fascinating subplots to a Vitello hire, the most pressing being simply how a college coach’s tactics can translate to motivating and leading a clubhouse of seasoned major leaguers.  Vitello’s NCAA credentials are as good as anyone’s, but as we’ve seen countless times in the NFL, NBA, or NHL, coaching the professional game is vastly different than being a success in the collegiate ranks.  The Giants have had difficulty in luring top-tier free agents in the past, and it is worth wondering how those pursuits could be impacted with Vitello in the mix — would free agents balk at playing under an inexperienced manager, or would Vitello’s recruiting methods work as well on big leaguers as they do on blue-chip college prospects?

Blue Jays Notes: Springer, Bichette, Bullpen

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The Blue Jays are staring down elimination as they head back to Toronto following a tough loss to the Mariners in Game 5 of the ALCS yesterday. Manager John Schneider spoke to reporters this evening about the health status of a couple of key players, as well as the club’s pitching plans headed into the final games of the series.

Perhaps the most pressing update is the one regarding veteran slugger George Springer. The 36-year-old enjoyed a career year at the plate this season as he slashed .309/.399/.560 with 32 home runs and 27 doubles. Springer has continued his strong performance into the postseason, with eight extra-base hits in nine games so far this October. That hot streak was put at risk last night when Springer was hit in the right knee by a pitch.

Initial x-rays came back negative, fortunately, and today Schneider offered more good news to reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) when he revealed that a follow-up CT scan confirmed no fracture. Springer was set to undergo additional treatment today, but it seems as though he’s likely to be back in the lineup for Game 6. As noted by MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson, Schneider told reporters he was “hopeful and optimistic” that Springer would be in the lineup for tomorrow’s game, and added that Schneider intends to put Springer in the game as long as Springer himself says he’s ready to play.

The future is less clear for star shortstop Bo Bichette. Bichette has been sidelined since the regular season due to a PCL sprain, and his availability in the event that the Jays manage to win their next two games and advance to face the Dodgers in the World Series remains up in the air. Schneider indicated to reporters (including Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet) that Bichette has increased his running volume on the field and is “making progress” with his swing but that he’s not yet tried to run the bases after he limped off the field when he tried to do so prior to the ALCS. Even in spite of this injury, Bichette’s had a strong bounce back year ahead of free agency with a .311/.357/.483 slash line in 139 games.

Of course, if Bichette is going to even have a chance to make it back for the World Series, the Jays will need to advance there. To that end, Schneider indicated to reporters (including Mitch Bannon of The Athletic) that everyone on the pitching staff who is “physically available” will be able to pitch tomorrow. That likely rules out Kevin Gausman after he pitched 5 2/3 innings of work yesterday, but could mean that every other pitcher on the roster is available. Bannon specifically highlights that veteran right-hander Max Scherzer will be available for tomorrow’s game after his 87-pitch start in Game 4 of the series on Thursday. Trey Yesavage is poised to start tomorrow’s game opposite right-hander Logan Gilbert.

Using Scherzer and Shane Bieber in tomorrow’s game would be a risky move for the Blue Jays, as it would leave them without anyone to start in Game 7 of the series on Monday if they make it that far. Of course, saving an arm for Game 7 would do little for the Blue Jays if they were to get eliminated in Game 6. In a win-or-go-home game, it’s sensible to win that night’s game at all costs and worry about the consequences of that later. That’s the plan the Mariners used in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Tigers, when they used George Kirby, Gilbert, and Luis Castillo in a 15-inning affair to leave them with no option but to start Bryce Miller in Game 1 of the ALCS against Toronto.

Looking For A Match In A Sonny Gray Trade

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The Cardinals are entering what could be a multi-year rebuilding period where they focus more on strengthening their farm system and player development apparatus than winning games at the major league level. That’s a pivot that started last winter, but a number of key veteran players with no-trade clauses wanted to stick with the organization for the 2025 season and try to win in St. Louis. With a 78-84 season in the books and Chaim Bloom having now officially taken over John Mozeliak’s spot atop the baseball operations department, however, those same veterans are softening their stance about the possibility of a trade.

Perhaps the most interesting of those veteran is right-hander Sonny Gray, who is entering the final year of his contract in 2026. Gray is coming off a down season and will turn 36 in November, but his 4.28 ERA in 32 starts this year was still right around league average with much stronger peripheral numbers than that. He struck out 26.7% of his opponents, walked just 5.0%, and had the sixth-lowest SIERA in baseball among qualified starters this year with a 3.29 figure that clocked in behind only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and Logan Webb.

That’s good company to keep, considering that all five of those players well might end up as finalists for their respective league’s Cy Young award this year, and should help to assuage concerns about Gray’s ability to compete at a high level in his mid-30s. Few pitchers have a recent track record more impressive than the veteran right-hander, all things considered. In 116 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, Gray has a 3.53 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate, and a 3.17 FIP in 650 2/3 innings of work. It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could use in their rotation, but there are complicating factors in considering a trade for Gray.

The right-hander has a full no-trade clause that he has the ability to wield as he sees fit, and Gray is due a $35MM salary in 2026 with a $5MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option. That’s a hefty salary that a good number of clubs simply won’t be able to stomach, and the fact that Gray has shown a preference for pitching in smaller markets throughout his career could mean he’d wield his no-trade clause against some of the larger market franchises that could stomach his salary. The Cardinals are open to paying down salary in trades this winter, but it’s unclear if they’d be willing to pay down enough of it to get smaller market clubs into the mix for Gray’s services.

Which clubs are the best fits for St. Louis’s veteran hurler? Here’s a look at nine potential suitors, listed alphabetically within tiers:

Best Fits

  • Braves: One of the clear best fits for Gray’s services is Atlanta, who were reportedly in on Gray when he was a free agent two offseasons ago. Since then, the Braves have struggled to stay healthy and even fell out of the playoff picture this year due in large part to a rotation that was desperately missing Max Fried’s stabilizing presence after he left for the Yankees last winter. Atlanta has never been the sort of club to go out and spend hundreds of millions on an ace in free agency, so unless they change course this year they’ll need to get creative to add some certainty to a rotation that saw all of its established starters spend significant time on the injured list this year. Bringing Gray into the fold could be just that sort of creativity, and Alex Anthopoulos has long been comfortable bringing in veterans (like Marcell Ozuna, Josh Donaldson, and Charlie Morton) on short-term deals with high salaries.
  • Giants: The Giants are going to need more than just Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Landen Roupp in their rotation next year, and Gray would make plenty of sense for that role. Gray was actually connected to San Francisco back in September as a potential trade target. Some of that report was based on Gray’s connection with former Giants manager Bob Melvin, who has since been fired, but the Giants are still one of the few clubs that could stomach most of Gray’s salary within their expected budget. Gray also had plenty of success pitching for the A’s in Oakland, so a return to the Bay Area might have appeal to him even without Melvin in the fold.
  • Orioles: The Orioles, much like the Braves, found themselves pushed out of contention early this year due in large part to a lack of pitching depth. There’s virtually no certainty in the club’s 2026 rotation outside of Trevor Rogers, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has shown a strong preference towards short-term additions when bringing in players who make significant dollars. That could make Gray a sensible fit following a season where Baltimore paid more than $41MM combined to Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, and Morton for lackluster performances. While the Orioles are a lower budget club than most of the teams mentioned here, St. Louis’s willingness to eat salary could make Gray less of a financial burden than comparable arms in free agency.

Next Tier Down

  • Athletics: Gray played for the Athletics in Oakland for parts of five seasons after they took him 18th overall in the 2011 draft. In that time, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 705 innings of work. Gray was eventually dealt to the Yankees, and in the years since then the A’s have been uprooted from Oakland and moved to West Sacramento. That move came with a raised payroll and a more sincere attempt to compete than previous rebuilding years, however, and a hitting core of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom looks ready to compete in the playoffs. What they’ll need to make that happen is pitching, and Gray has front-of-the-rotation upside and experience playing in unfriendly pitching environments like Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. Perhaps if Gray was available last offseason, the A’s would’ve been a more sensible fit, but as it stands it’s unclear if the A’s intend to continue scaling up payroll after last season’s spending brought them an 86-loss campaign.
  • Padres: No team comes to mind more quickly than the Padres when discussing creative trade proposals, and that’s entirely thanks to the efforts of president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. Preller is by far the most active and aggressive executive in baseball, and this winter he’ll be tasked with replacing Dylan Cease and Michael King at the top of the rotation despite a relative lack of budget space. Adding someone like Gray to the rotation alongside Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears would be a huge help in stabilizing things, but there are clear obstacles here. For one thing, the Cardinals would likely need to be willing to eat the overwhelming majority of Gray’s salary in order to facilitate a deal with San Diego. That would mean a rather high prospect cost for the Padres, and while Preller is never shy about trading prospects his push at this summer’s trade deadline has left those cupboards somewhat barren. What’s more, Gray would be controlled for just the 2026 season, and Preller usually prioritizing trades for controllable players over rentals.
  • Dodgers: When it comes to spending money, there are few (if any) teams in baseball who can do so with the same reckless abandon as the Dodgers. Their payroll this season approached $400MM and it should surprise no one if it ends up in a similar place next season. While their rotation of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani is currently powering them through the postseason, the injury concerns in that group are obvious and the depth behind that quartet is taking a hit with Clayton Kershaw’s impending retirement. Adding a reliable workhorse like Gray would make plenty of sense, and the Dodgers are one of the few clubs that could reasonably take on most if not all of Gray’s salary without much issue. On the other hand, the Dodgers aren’t exactly the sort of small market club Gray has typically preferred to play for over the years, which could be a problem depending on how aggressive he is in using his no-trade clause.

Long Shots:

  • Cubs: On paper, the Cubs might seem like an excellent fit for Gray. The club appears likely to pursue pitching help this winter after injuries to Justin Steele and Cade Horton left them shorthanded this postseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has shown a proclivity towards shorter-term additions with higher salaries, and Chicago’s status as a midwest city could be attractive to Gray for the purposes of his no-trade clause considering his previous decisions to sign in Cincinnati, Minnesota, and St. Louis. With all of that said, the biggest obstacle to this sort of trade is that the Cubs and Cardinals have one of the biggest rivalries in the sport and very rarely trade with each other. Perhaps Bloom taking over as president of baseball operations could help thaw that trade embargo, given that he and Brian Cashman executed what was then just the second Yankees/Red Sox trade of the 21st century back in 2021, but it would still be a shock to see the teams line up on a trade of this magnitude.
  • Mets:  The Mets are a team with plenty of willingness to spend money, a major need in the rotation, and a strong preference for bringing pitchers in on relatively short-term contracts. That all would make them seem like an obvious fit for Gray, but it’s fair to wonder how the right-hander’s previous stint in New York could impact interest on both sides. Gray’s 4.51 ERA in parts of two seasons with the Yankees was the worst stretch of his career. It would be understandable if Gray wasn’t interested in returning to New York at this point in his career, even for a different franchise, and it’s equally possible that the Mets would shy away from a pitcher who previously struggled in the sport’s largest media market.
  • Reds: It was with the Reds that Gray turned his career around after leaving New York, and he pitched to a 3.49 ERA across three seasons in Cincinnati. He signed an extension with the club once before, so his no-trade clause would likely be a non-issue, and the Reds were connected to him both during his last trip through free agency and even on the trade market last year. It would stand to reason that there could be some interest between the two sides once again, but the Reds’ limited budget makes a trade hard to envision given that they already have a rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo locked in for 2026 with youngsters like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder also in the mix for starts. Whatever budget space Cincinnati has available this winter seems likely to be better used elsewhere on the roster, barring a trade of another arm that creates an opening.

Dodgers Expected To Pursue Kyle Tucker This Offseason

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The Dodgers are back in the World Series to defend the title they won last year after sweeping the Brewers out of the NLCS, but while they wait to see which of the Mariners and Blue Jays will emerge from the ALCS to challenge them for the commissioner’s trophy it appears their front office has already directed one eye towards the coming offseason. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this evening that Los Angeles is expected to target star outfielder Kyle Tucker when free agency opens up following the World Series.

The news is hardly a surprise, as the Dodgers are routinely involved with the game’s marquee free agents. They famously won the sweepstakes for both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto during the 2023-24 offseason, and while last winter saw them miss on young superstar Juan Soto after landing as one of five finalists for his services, they still went on to spend plenty in free agency as they brought in Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and Tanner Scott among a number of other signings and re-signings.

Impressive as the Dodgers have been this year, one of the team’s few major flaws is their production in the outfield. Andy Pages (113 wRC+) has emerged as a legitimate regular in center field, but Teoscar Hernandez (102 wRC+) took a significant step back last year relative to his first season in Los Angeles and the Michael Conforto experiment ended disastrously as he posted a wRC+ of just 83 with negative WAR in 138 games before being left off the club’s postseason rosters. With Conforto headed back into free agency this winter, there’s an opening on the grass in Los Angeles that Tucker could fit into quite nicely.

Tucker, 28, is a four-time All-Star who is the consensus pick for this winter’s top free agent. He broke out with the Astros back in 2021, and since then he’s hit a sensational .277/.365/.514 (143 wRC+) across five seasons of work. His resume was impressive enough that the Cubs were convinced to surrender top prospect Cam Smith and All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes (alongside young starter Hayden Wesneski) in a three-player package to acquire Tucker ahead of his final year under team control. Tucker was everything the Cubs were hoping for in the first half this year, as he slashed .291/.295/.537 with 17 homers in 83 games through the end of June.

At that point, Tucker seemed likely to find himself at the center of discussions about whether or not he’d join Ohtani, Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in landing a guarantee of more than $500MM this winter. Things took a turn for the worse in the second half, however. Tucker made two trips to the injured list and hit just .225/.348/.342 in 53 games from July 1 onward, leaving him with fewer homers (22) in 136 games this year than he managed in 78 games during his injury-shortened 2024 season (23).

Heyman writes that Tucker’s tough second half has knocked down his expected price tag somewhat, but that a $300MM contract could still be realistic with even $400MM as a possible goal for the outfielder’s camp. That’s the type of price tag that’s sure to give pause to plenty of suitors, should it come to fruition. That’s unlikely to be the case for the Dodgers, who have a payroll of $395MM this year according to RosterResource and will see that figure drop to $329MM next year without making offseason additions. Even if Los Angeles isn’t willing to surpass this year’s payroll (and there’s been no indication that’s the case to this point), they’d still have plenty of room in the budget to add Tucker if they so chose.

Looking at other potential suitors, the Cubs have indicated at least some interest in bringing Tucker back into the fold next year. With that said, it should be noted that they’ve never spent more than the $184MM they gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason on a contract in club history. That would be a significant jump out of the club’s apparent comfort zone under chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, though it could be argued that trading for Tucker in the first place was similarly out of character.

Heyman also suggests that the Red Sox, Phillies, and Giants could be in the mix for Tucker’s services, though none of those potential landing spots are quite as obvious fits as Los Angeles is. Boston has a very crowded outfield mix as it is, with Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu all left-handed outfielders under long-term team control who belong in everyday roles and profile best in a corner. The Phillies have made it clear their top priority this winter is retaining star DH Kyle Schwarber, and it remains to be seen if the Giants are interested in adding another corner bat on a massive contract after trading for Rafael Devers back in June.

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