MLB Trade Rumors

The Cubs and infielder Nico Hoerner have agreed to an extension, reports Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation. It’s a six-year deal, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Hoerner was slated for free agency after this year, with 2026 being the final season of his previous extension. The financial aspects of this new agreement have not yet been publicly reported.

Hoerner, 29 in May, has been the a key part of the Cubs for several years now. He doesn’t have a ton of power but provides strong offense with a consistent contact approach. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has almost 2500 plate appearances. His 6.4% walk rate and 10.2% strikeout rate are both well below league average. He only has 33 home runs in that time. But the contact approach has resulted in a .284/.339/.389 line and 105 wRC+ for that span. He finished each of those four seasons with a wRC+ from 102 to 109.

He combines that offense with strong attributes in other facets of his game. He has stolen 123 bases in that four-year span, with at least 20 in each season. Defensively, he is considered to be good enough to handle shortstop but has been bumped to the other side of the bag by the presence of Dansby Swanson. That has made him one of the best defensive second basemen in the league. Dating back to the start of 2023, the year he moved to second base, he has 32 Defensive Runs Saved and 35 Outs Above Average. The DRS total is behind only Andrés Giménez and Brice Turang, while the OAA number is behind only Giménez and Marcus Semien.

The combination is a valuable one. FanGraphs has credited him with a little more than four wins above replacement per year for a total of 17.4 fWAR since the start of 2022. He didn’t finish any of those four seasons lower than 3.8 fWAR.

Three years ago, the Cubs and Hoerner agreed to their first extension, a three-year deal worth $35MM. That was a bit of an odd deal, as it bought out Hoerner’s two arbitration seasons and then just one free agent year. Hoerner delayed his path to the open market for a relatively modest price.

As that deal played out, Hoerner became a plausible trade candidate for a few reasons. For one, he was getting closer to free agency, which often leads to increased trade speculation with many players. The Cubs also had some infield prospects pushing towards the majors, with Matt Shaw making his major league debut last year. The Cubs could have traded Hoerner to address another area of the roster, then put Shaw at second base. Given that another club could have put Hoerner at shortstop, perhaps that would have increased the trade return.

Instead, the Cubs are locking in another piece of their core. Third baseman Alex Bregman is signed through 2030 and Swanson through 2029. They agreed to a long-term deal with Pete Crow-Armstrong just a few days ago, so he’s going to be signed through 2032. Assuming this Hoerner deal starts in 2027, it will also run through 2032.

After 2026, the Cubs were facing a potentially huge amount of roster turnover. Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Hoby Milner, Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto and Tyler Austin are all impending free agents. Matthew Boyd, Hunter Harvey, Carson Kelly and Caleb Thielbar all have mutual options for 2027 but those are almost never picked up by both sides, so they should all be considered impending free agents as well. That is still something the club will have to plan for but locking in Hoerner takes one thing off the to-do list.

One player who could be impacted by this deal is Shaw. He played third base last year but the Bregman signing bumped him into a utility role for 2026. With Hoerner’s impending free agency, it was possible to imagine that being a one-year arrangement, as Shaw could then take over at the keystone starting in 2027. That’s no longer possible.

Shaw is going to be playing some outfield this year, so perhaps he could take over a corner next year with the impending departures of Happ and Suzuki, though that depends on him proving viable on the grass. He is still under club control for six seasons, so it’s also possible to imagine him being a future trade chip, if he could find a better path to infield playing time with another club.

Hoerner would have made for a fascinating free agent case. Second basemen normally don’t get massive paychecks in free agency but Hoerner could have marketed himself as a shortstop and perhaps some clubs would have viewed him as one. Teams also normally pay more for power than contact. A speed-and-defense profile can get paid but it’s also risky since those attributes fade over time. It would have been a unique free agency test case but that’s moot now.

The 2026-27 free agent class is particularly light in terms of hitters. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at the group in a post for Front Office subscribers. While recent offseasons have had clear standout bats like Corey Seager, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, the upcoming winter doesn’t quite have that kind of star power. Franco highlighted Bo Bichette, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Daulton Varsho and Hoerner as the top position players in the class.

Hoerner certainly would not have been the best hitter in that bunch but the speed and defense put him up there in terms of overall value. Teams looking for middle infield help next winter will have to cross one name off what was already a somewhat flimsy list.

As of this writing, the numbers on the deal have not been reported. That makes it difficult to assess the long-term impact for the Cubs. What can be said is that they do have a good amount of payroll space available in the future. As mentioned, they have long-term commitments to Swanson, Bregman and Crow-Armstrong but that’s essentially it. Phil Maton and Shelby Miller are the only other players with guaranteed deals for 2027. By 2028, it’s just Bregman, Swanson and Crow-Armstrong.

Photos courtesy of Michael McLoone, David Banks, Imagn Images