Dillon Dingler Keeps Getting Better
There was a time not too long ago where Dillon Dingler seemed to be on track to be a backup catcher. That’d have been a perfectly fine career, but it now seems he is so much more than that, which is great for him and the Tigers.
Dingler was a second-round pick of the Tigers in 2020. For most of his time in the minors, the book on him was that he had a great defensive skill set but his ceiling would be capped by a propensity for swinging and missing.
In 2022, Dingler spent the entire year at Double-A. He hit 14 home runs in 448 plate appearances and drew walks at a solid 10% clip, but his 31.9% strikeout rate was far too high high. For reference, the MLB average was 22.2% last year. The highest qualified hitter was Ryan McMahon at 32.3%. Players generally strike out more as they climb the minor league ladder and face tougher competition. With Dingler already whiffing at a high rate in Double-A, it would be natural to expect his rates to increase as he got to Triple-A and then the majors.
That season dimmed his stock a bit. Baseball America had him as the No. 4 prospect in the Tigers’ system going into 2022 but bumped him to No. 7 ahead of the 2023 season. Going into 2022, FanGraphs had Dingler at No. 4 in the system and even slotted him in as the game’s No. 108 prospect. Tthe following year, Dingler was off the Top 100, dropped to No. 7 in the system, and given a 45 FV (future value) on the 20-80 scale. The May 2024 scouting report from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen provides a good snapshot of how Dingler was viewed at that time:
“The athleticism and receiving to be a do-it-all defender behind the dish is here, and much of Dingler’s prospect variance is tied to whether his hit tool and medium-sized frame will enable him to be a primary catcher or just a luxury backup. He swings through a ton of in-zone fastballs and really struggles to get on top of anything in the upper third of the zone. There aren’t many catchers capable of punishing mistakes with power the way Dingler does, but his bat-to-ball ability is also comfortably worse than the typical hitter at that position. He shares quite a few similarities with Jake Rogers and should end up playing a lot, producing about 1.5 annual WAR in a low-end primary catching role.”
The 2023 season didn’t improve the way he was viewed. Injuries limited him to 89 games, including 26 at the Triple-A level. He punched out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and put up an ugly .202/.266/.384 line. Going into 2024, the Tigers gave him a 40-man spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, but BA knocked him down to No. 9 in the Detroit system. FanGraphs bumped him down to No. 10 and dropped his FV to 40+ (again, on the 20-80 scale).
Dingler’s 2024 was something of a mixed bag. His results at the Triple-A level were very encouraging. He took 301 trips to the plate and trimmed his strikeout rate to 20.3% — a massive improvement. His 10% walk rate was still good, and he hit 17 home runs. His .308/.379/.559 line translated to a 145 wRC+. That got some help from a .337 batting average on balls in play, but there were a lot of good signs regardless.
However, Dingler also got his first taste of the majors and delivered more worrisome results. It was a small sample size of 87 plate appearances, but his 34.5% strikeout rate was the exact kind of thing that prospect evaluators were concerned about in previous seasons. His .167/.195/.310 line was obviously unpleasant.
Last year was a breakout. An early injury to Rogers opened up some playing time, and Dingler ran with it. By the end of the year, he had appeared in 126 games. His defense received strong grades, as expected for a guy who was considered a glove-first prospect. He was credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, putting him among the top 15 catchers for that stat. FanGraphs had him as one of the game’s 10 best pitch framers. Statcast had him in the top ten in terms of framing, throwing and blocking. He won the American League Gold Glove for the catcher position.
The offense was arguably more notable, given his past reputation. Dingler’s 23.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than average but very tolerable and certainly better than his minor league work. His 4.9% walk rate was subpar, but he hit 14 home runs and slashed .278/.327/.425 for a 109 wRC+. That was juiced by a .345 BABIP but was encouraging nonetheless.
So far in 2026, he’s been even better. It’s a tiny sample of 83 plate appearances but his walk rate has moved up a bit to 6%, still well below average but an uptick nonetheless. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 16.9%. He has a .264/.346/.528 line and 145 wRC+, despite a subpar BABIP of .264. Statcast puts his average exit velocity in the 84th percentile of qualified hitters. His hard-hit rate is 96th and barrel rate 95th.
As mentioned, that is a small sample and maybe he can’t maintain it. But at this point, Dingler has 639 career plate appearances. Even with his nightmare start in 2024, he has a combined .261/.311/.421 line, 104 wRC+, 4.9% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate. That walk rate may even increase, since he usually walked about twice as much in the minors.
Maybe the strikeouts will creep back up, but there are some encouraging indicators under the hood. Dingler had a decent eye, hence the walks in the minors, but he would miss when he did decide to swing. As mentioned in the pull quote above, a big problem was him missing balls in the strike zone, not so much a problem with chasing.
His contact rate in Double-A in 2022 was 67.8%. For context, the major league average last year was 76.4%. In 2023, when he was still striking out a lot in the minors, his contact rate was 70.6%. But in 2024, he got that up above 76%, both in the majors and in the minors. He was at 77% last year and is at 78.5% so far in 2026.
It’s possible that pitchers adjust how they attack Dingler. Perhaps due to his reputation, 53.8% of the pitches he saw last year were in the strike zone. That was well above the league average of 41.9%. In the early going here in 2026, only 47.8% of pitches he has seen have been in the zone. That’s still above par but a big drop from the year before. If pitchers continue to throw him fewer strikes, he may have to adjust his approach, but he’s not a free swinger right now. His 48.5% swing rate last year was above average but barely, as the league-wide mean was 47.4%. Since he was getting attacked more, it makes sense that he would swing more. He is up to 49.5% this year, despite seeing fewer pitches in the zone, though he is still getting balls over the plate a lot.
The overall package has been valuable so far. Dingler has appeared in 174 big league games. Thanks so his contributions on both sides of the ball, FanGraphs has credited him with 5.0 wins above replacement. Dating back to the start of last year, Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers are the only backstops with more fWAR. Baseball Reference is a bit more bearish, giving him 3.9 WAR so far. Time will tell if Dingler can hold his gains on the strikeout side of things, but the defense gives him a strong floor and he can clearly put a charge in the ball when he does connect.
Dingler’s breakout is a great development for the Tigers. They are about to lose Rogers to free agency in a few months. If Dingler were a strikeout-prone backup, as expected, Detroit would have been looking for a new catcher in the coming offseason. Instead, they should be able to just roll with Dingler.
They may have to replace Rogers, but that could also be done in house. Eduardo Valencia is already on the 40-man roster and has some helium thanks to a .319/.405/.622 showing in Triple-A last year. His numbers aren’t as strong so far in 2026, currently sporting a .182/.308/.299 line, but with an unfortunate .222 BABIP. There are questions about whether he can stick behind the plate, but the Tigers are still trying. He’s been in the catcher position for 101 innings this year, compared to 53 1/3 at first base. FanGraphs currently considers him the No. 8 prospect in the system.
Dingler is controlled through 2030, so there are also long-term questions to be answered. A couple of Detroit’s top prospects are catchers. Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño are consensus top five guys in the system. Briceño is generally considered a top-100 prospect. Liranzo is already on the 40-man roster but hasn’t yet reached the Triple-A level. He spent most of 2025 at Double-A and struck out at a 31.7% rate. He was slowed by an oblique strain this spring and is only now getting ramped up. Briceño also reached Double-A last year and hit better but has more questions about his ability to stick at catcher. He recently underwent wrist surgery and is likely to miss a few months of this year. Neither of these two are knocking on the door yet but could be at some point.
Even if Briceño is ultimately pushed to first base and designated hitter, the Tigers have Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter under club control through 2028. It’s possible the Tigers will get to a point where they feel someone from that group can be traded.
Even if they don’t build up enough of a surplus to trade someone, Dingler’s development is great for the long-term spine nonetheless. Kevin McGonigle is now signed through 2034 and could be the everyday shortstop for much of that span. Max Clark is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is currently playing in Triple-A. He should be up at some point this season and could be the center fielder in Detroit through 2032.
Along with that long-term core, the Tigers have financial flexibility. Thanks to an aversion to long-term free agent contracts in recent years, their books are fairly clean. The Javier Báez deal is done after 2027. Framber Valdez is signed through 2028 but can opt out of the final year. All their other players making eight-figure salaries are slated for free agency after the current season. Pretty soon, the McGonigle and Colt Keith extensions will be the only guaranteed deals on the books, and those aren’t especially onerous.
The Tigers will probably need more pitching. Valdez can opt out after 2027. Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and Casey Mize are free agents after the current season. That clean payroll outlook will give the front office space to sign guys, and as mentioned, they could also find themselves with a position player logjam that leads to a trade.
Detroit could also explore a Dingler extension if they were so inclined. He would probably be amenable to one. Catchers don’t age especially well due to the rigors of the position, which means they rarely receive big free agent deals — at least relative to other position players. J.T. Realmuto got to $115.5MM back in 2021, and he’s still the only free agent backstop to crack nine figures. That’s a big number, but dozens of infielders and outfielders have beaten that handily.
Dingler was a bit of a late bloomer, as he didn’t reach the majors until his age-25 season and didn’t break out until he was 26. His window of club control already goes through his age-31 season, meaning he would hit the open market ahead of his age-32 campaign. If the Tigers wanted to lock him up and add another year or two, it seems fair to assume he would be interested.
Extensions for catchers this early in their careers are rare. Most of the notable recent deals for catchers came when they pushed into their arbitration years. Will Smith signed his $131.5MM deal with the Dodgers when he had over four years of service time. Alejandro Kirk was also in that bucket when the Blue Jays gave him $58MM. Raleigh and Sean Murphy had between three and four years of service when they got $99.4MM and $73MM, respectively.
The one recent deal that aligns with Dingler’s current status is the eight-year $50MM deal signed by the Nationals and Keibert Ruiz. Apart from the fact that both catchers have between one and two years of service, it’s not a great comp. Ruiz hadn’t had as much success then as Dingler has now. The deal was mostly a bet on Ruiz’s prospect pedigree, which has not panned out so far. Ruiz has mostly struggled and the deal looks like an albatross. It’s safe to presume he’d top that deal by a comfortable margin.
Contract talk aside, Dingler is making the Tigers stronger now and can continue to do so for years to come. Detroit will face some challenges with none of their starters signed long-term, but the Tigers have a strong foundation on the position player side to utilize, with Dingler rapidly emerging as a key piece of that core.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
White Sox Designate Lucas Sims For Assignment
The White Sox shuffled up their bullpen Thursday, announcing that veteran righty Lucas Sims has been designated for assignment. Right-hander Tyler Davis has had his contract selected from Triple-A Charlotte and will join the big league relief corps.
More to come.
Phillies Release Taijuan Walker
The Phillies have released veteran right-hander Taijuan Walker, per a club announcement. Philadelphia also optioned right-hander Alan Rangel to Triple-A Lehigh Valley and recalled right-hander Nolan Hoffman. It seems there’ll be another move before today’s game to fill the 26th spot on the roster.
Walker, 33, is in the final season of a four-year, $72MM contract that didn’t pan out at all as the team hoped. It was a surprisingly large contract at the time he signed the deal. Walker was fresh off a solid 29-start showing with the Mets (3.49 ERA, 157 1/3 innings), but his rate stats didn’t support that level of run prevention. Walker had a decent season as an innings eating, back-of-the-rotation starter in year one of the contract (4.38 ERA, 172 2/3 frames), and he posted solid results between the rotation and bullpen in 2025 as well (4.08 ERA, 123 2/3 innings).
The other two seasons of the contract have been a nightmare. Walker was one of the least-effective pitchers in the sport in 2024, yielding a 7.10 earned run average across 83 2/3 innings. This season has gone even worse. The veteran righty has pitched 22 2/3 innings and been shelled for 25 runs (23 earned) on a whopping 36 hits and 11 walks with only 17 strikeouts. He’s working with the second-worst velocity of his career — ahead of only that disastrous ’24 campaign — and missing bats at his lowest levels ever. Between those red flags and the 9.13 ERA, the Phillies were left with little choice but to move on as they try to crawl out of an 8-16 hole and snap a woeful eight-game losing streak.
The Phillies will remain on the hook for the rest of Walker’s $18MM salary this season. He’s still owed a bit more than $15MM of that sum. Any team that signs Walker would owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on said club’s major league roster or injured list. That amount would be subtracted from what the Phillies owe, but they’re paying the vast majority of the tab even in a best-case scenario.
Ace Zack Wheeler will return to the Phillies’ rotation this weekend, though it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll perform on the heels of a procedure to address thoracic outlet syndrome. He’s posted a 5.85 ERA in 20 minor league rehab innings, albeit with more encouraging rate stats: 28% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate, 45.1% ground-ball rate. Wheeler will join last year’s Cy Young runner-up, Cristopher Sánchez, longtime top prospect Andrew Painter, and veterans Aaron Nola and Jesús Luzardo in the Philadelphia rotation.
All told, Walker ends up with 402 2/3 innings of 5.12 ERA ball as a member of the Phillies. He now becomes the second high-priced veteran whose contract will effectively be eaten by the Phillies this season. Outfielder/designated hitter Nick Castellanos was also cut loose from the final season of a five-year, $100MM contract just prior to spring training. He’s since signed with the Padres, for whom he’s batting .146/.196/.208 in 51 plate appearances. As with Walker, the Phillies are paying the vast majority of Castellanos’ $20MM salary. The Padres only owe him the prorated minimum for any time spent in the majors.
Red Sox To Recall Payton Tolle
The Red Sox are calling up left-hander Payton Tolle to start Thursday’s series finale against the Yankees, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. It’ll be the touted young lefty’s first major league action of the season and just the fourth big league start of his career.
Tolle currently sits 11th on Baseball America’s ranking of the sport’s top-100 prospects. He’s 15th over at MLB.com. The 23-year-old reported to camp this spring in hopes of securing a rotation spot after making a brief MLB debut late last season, but fellow top prospect and left-hander Connelly Early wound up claiming the lone rotation vacancy. Tolle opened the season in Triple-A Worcester, where he’s been excellent. In three starts, he’s totaled 15 innings and held opponents to five earned runs (3.00 ERA) on 12 hits and four walks with 19 strikeouts.
The Sox spent much of the offseason bolstering their pitching depth. While younger arms like Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts were sent out in trades, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow also acquired Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo via the trade market and signed longtime Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez as a free agent.
Just under a month into the season, that depth has already been tested. Oviedo made just one appearance before being diagnosed with a flexor strain and placed on the 60-day injured list. Gray landed on the 15-day IL with a hamstring strain after exiting his most recent start in the middle of the third inning. Left-hander Patrick Sandoval still hasn’t pitched for Boston after signing a two-year, $18.25MM contract two offseasons ago. The Sox knew he’d miss most of 2025 rehabbing from UCL surgery, but he didn’t make it back at all last year and is now dealing with biceps discomfort that popped up during a minor league rehab stint. Righty Kutter Crawford missed the 2025 season due to a knee injury and wrist surgery. He’s also on a rehab stint but also could be facing a setback after experiencing elbow discomfort during a minor league start.
Counting Tanner Houck — who won’t pitch this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last August — the Sox have an entire rotation’s worth of arms on the injured list. At the moment, their healthy starting options include Suarez, Early, Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and, once this move is official, Tolle. Right-hander Tyler Uberstine and lefty Jake Bennett are on the 40-man roster and pitching well in Worcester; Uberstine made his MLB debut earlier this season when he pitched 2 2/3 innings in a long relief appearance. He’s since been optioned back to Triple-A.
All of the injuries could give Tolle some runway to turn this into more than a spot start. There’s no expectation that Gray’s injury will necessitate a long-term absence, but the Sox have yet to put a firm timetable on his recovery, either. Even if it’s just a minimum stint, that’d be enough for Tolle to make multiple starts.
The Red Sox don’t have an off day until April 30, so they won’t have the luxury of skipping this spot in the rotation if they want to send Tolle down and bring up another arm for the ‘pen. However, they could still option Tolle and then call up Bennett or Uberstine to take the ball when this spot in the rotation comes up again next Tuesday. Alternatively, if Bello continues to struggle as he has through his first four starts (6.75 ERA, 14.1% strikeout rate, 13% walk rate in 18 2/3 innings), it’s hard not to wonder whether the currently 9-15 Red Sox might consider at least a short-term change. And, as always, the possibility of injuries elsewhere on the staff could create a more lasting opportunity for Tolle.
Tolle, the No. 50 overall draft pick in 2024, impressed in his first big league start last summer, tossing 5 1/3 innings and holding the Pirates to a pair of runs on three hits and two walks with eight punchouts. His next two starts were shaky, however, and the Sox moved him to the ‘pen for the final few weeks of the season. He wound up posting a 6.06 ERA in a small sample of 16 1/3 innings, but Tolle’s upper-90s four-seamer and 90 mph cutter were on full display. He fanned more than one quarter of his opponents and notched a huge 14.8% swinging-strike rate. This year in Triple-A, he’s added a two-seamer and upped the usage rates on both his curveball and changeup, giving him a more well-rounded arsenal.
Braves Select Carlos Carrasco, Place Dylan Dodd On Injured List
April 23: Atlanta formally announced the selection of both Carrasco and Ritchie. Fuentes was indeed optioned back to Gwinnett, and Dodd heads to the 15-day injured list. However, Dodd’s formal injury designation from the team was not an oblique strain, but rather “left thoracic spine inflammation.” The team’s initial announcement doesn’t provide a timetable for Dodd’s return, but manager Walt Weiss will probably provide more details in today’s pre-game media session.
April 22: The Braves are selecting veteran righty Carlos Carrasco onto the MLB roster, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Left-hander Dylan Dodd will go on the 15-day injured list with an oblique strain. Carrasco will be available in long relief behind JR Ritchie, who is coming up to start tomorrow in his major league debut.
Atlanta already had two openings on the 40-man roster. They lost Osvaldo Bido on waivers to the White Sox over the weekend and designated Ian Hamilton for assignment this morning. Adding Ritchie and Carrasco will put their roster back at capacity.
The 39-year-old Carrasco will be in the big leagues for a 17th season. He made three starts for Atlanta last summer as part of a revolving door of depth arms while the rotation was decimated by injury. Carrasco allowed 15 runs across 13 2/3 innings and finished the season in Triple-A. The Braves brought him back on a new minor league deal at the beginning of the offseason.
Carrasco is out to a nice start with their top affiliate in Gwinnett. He carries a 1.71 earned run average through his first four appearances. Carrasco has fanned 21% of opposing hitters with a sub-6% walk rate. He’s only in the 90-91 mph range on his fastballs, leaning more heavily on his slider and changeup to compensate.
The arsenal hasn’t played at the MLB level for the past few seasons. Carrasco owns a 6.36 ERA between four teams since the start of the 2023 campaign. Atlanta needed a length option for a bullpen that has gotten a lot of work over the past couple days.
Their last two starters, Reynaldo López and Didier Fuentes, threw a combined four innings. While Ritchie is a very good prospect, he’s not a lock to work deep in the game in his first outing against a big league lineup. He’ll take on a Nationals team that has started the season hot offensively behind fantastic months from James Wood and CJ Abrams. Excluding the just optioned Fuentes, Ritchie and Carrasco have been Atlanta’s two best Triple-A starters.
The Opener: Murakami, Ritchie, Soriano
The Mets are on the board. Now, it’s the Phillies’ turn. The club will look to end an eight-game slide in Chicago this afternoon.
1. Murakami’s home run streak
First baseman Munetaka Murakami took Ryan Thompson deep in the seventh inning of Wednesday’s contest. He’s now homered in five consecutive games, which puts him in impressive historical company (h/t Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Murakami’s homer streak ties him with Shohei Ohtani for the longest by a Japanese-born player. The five-game run matches the White Sox franchise record, set by several players. It also ties the MLB rookie record, which has been done 13 times. Colson Montgomery has also homered in four straight games, which is a record for a pair of teammates. The slugging infielders will look to keep it going against Michael Soroka on Thursday.
2. Ritchie getting the call
The Braves are promoting top prospect JR Ritchie for his MLB debut against the Nationals today. The right-hander was off to an excellent start in Triple-A, posting a 0.99 ERA across five appearances. Ritchie is taking the spot of fellow intriguing rookie Didier Fuentes, who allowed four earned runs over three innings on Wednesday, but did rack up seven strikeouts. Ritchie and Fuentes are likely to be up and down with the big-league club frequently as the organization tries to buy time for its injured starters to return.
3. Soriano’s historic start
Right-hander Jose Soriano navigated around seven hits to deliver five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. The outing trimmed his ERA to 0.28. It’s the lowest mark through six starts since earned runs became an official stat in 1913, per MLB. Soriano has allowed one earned run all season, and it came in one of his most dominant outings. Drake Baldwin tagged him for a solo home run in the first inning of an April 6 start, but Soriano settled in for eight strong frames to beat Chris Sale and the Braves. He’s ripped off 24 2/3 scoreless innings since the Baldwin blast. Soriano is lined up to face the White Sox in his next start.
Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images
MLB Mailbag: Devin Williams, Braves, Blue Jays, Prospects
This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.
Charles asks:
As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.
He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?
Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually. For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.
My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction. Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM. We may have considered three years the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance. But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.
I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip. I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.
Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration. With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings. For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend. Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.
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MLBTR Podcast: Kevin McGonigle, The Padres’ Franchise Valuation, And Edwin Díaz To Miss Time
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Tigers signing Kevin McGonigle to an eight-year extension (1:30)
- José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones reportedly having an agreement in place to buy the Padres (13:10)
- Dodgers right-hander Edwin Díaz requiring elbow surgery (27:20)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Are the Braves for real? And what do they do once their injured guys get healthy? (32:20)
- If a salary cap is theoretically implemented, how would it work with the teams currently over the cap? (40:50)
- Can Michael Wacha of the Royals keep up his dominance? (45:50)
- What are the Reds going to do with Matt McLain and TJ Friedl? (48:15)
- Can the Nationals keep up this level of offense? And if so, should they have invested more in this year’s pitching staff? (52:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Lenyn Sosa Traded, And Injury Concerns For The Astros, Cubs And Orioles – listen here
- Previewing The 2026-27 Free-Agent Class – listen here
- Lots Of Extensions And Big-Picture Topics – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Padres Sign Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito‘s protracted 2025-2026 free agency stint has finally ended. The Padres announced that they have signed him to a one-year deal with a mutual option. He’ll receive a $3MM guarantee, with half of that total via buyout on a 2027 mutual option worth $8MM. Giolito can increase the buyout by $3MM based on starts in 2026. There is an additional $2MM in unlockable bonuses tied to awards voting. To make room on the 40-man, the Padres announced that righty Bryan Hoeing has been transferred to the 60-day IL as he recovers from flexor surgery. Giolito will start with Single-A Lake Elsinore and must be on the major league roster within the next 25 days. Giolito is represented by CAA Sports.
For Giolito, his second foray into free agency was not nearly as successful as his first. His 2019 to 2021 run with the White Sox had him positioned as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Among 46 starters who threw at least 350 innings in that time frame, Giolito was sixth with a 30.7% strikeout rate on the back of a fantastic fastball-changeup pairing. His propensity for fly balls (41.7 FB%) and homers (13.7 HR/FB%) possibly prevented “ace” designation, yet Giolito was easily one of baseball’s best pitchers in this time frame.
However, more middling results followed in 2022 and 2023, with the homers especially ticking up in 2023. His 41 big flies were second only to Lance Lynn. Despite a poor platform year by his standards, Giolito and his representatives were able to parlay the showing into a $38.5MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the ’24-’25 seasons, with some additional incentives and player option structure.
Unfortunately, a torn UCL brought his 2024 season to an abrupt halt. An internal brace procedure (which carries a shorter rehab timeline than a traditional Tommy John ligament graft) had him back on the mound at the end of the following April, where he threw 145 innings. ERA evaluators/predictors like xFIP (4.59) and SIERA (4.65) were more bearish on his work than his actual results (3.41). Notably, Giolito’s strikeouts were down from his heyday with the White Sox. He profiled more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the tremendous upside he flashed from 2019-2021 with Chicago.
Despite a solid return to the rotation, Giolito suffered from flexor irritation and a bone issue at the conclusion of the 2025 season. Although he was set to return to the club after resting, the Red Sox’s early postseason exit meant Giolito had no chance to pitch again before free agency. Under the hood, Giolito looked like a muted version of his best days, but he was a perfectly adequate starter in 2025.
His fastball velocity checked in about a one mile per hour (93.3) lower than his best seasons with the White Sox (94.2), but this was a continuation of a trend started in 2022. Among 82 pitchers who tossed at least 140 innings last season, Giolito was 69th in K-BB%, indicating both below-average ability to miss bats and control the zone. However, he was able to limit homers more effectively than ever before: his 9.3 HR/FB% was below league average, and the first time he recorded a single-percentage mark in a season of 25 or more starts.
Giolito declined his end of a $19MM mutual option (essentially a formality) with the Red Sox for 2026, and it perhaps came as no surprise that the Red Sox passed on extending Giolito a qualifying offer after the 2025 season due to some lingering injury trepidation. He is the last of the MLBTR 2025-2026 Top 50 MLB Free Agents to sign, and comes in far below expectations in years and total guarantee. Even without draft pick compensation attached, Giolito sat on the free agent market well into April, despite some notable playoff aspirants like the Braves, Cubs, and Padres losing multiple starters during Spring Training and the early season.
Speaking of the Padres, the news couldn’t come at a better time. Injuries and slowed recoveries have decimated the top of the rotation over the past few months. Yu Darvish had his second UCL surgery after the playoffs concluded in early November. Darvish is currently rehabbing on the restricted list away from the team and has reportedly considered retirement. Joe Musgrove, recovering from his own Tommy John surgery back in October 2024 and expected to open the season in the rotation, has had his rehab interrupted and was placed on the IL to open the season. 2025 workhorse Nick Pivetta hit the IL after four starts with a flexor strain. Surgery is not currently on the table, but given the recurrence of the strain (Pivetta also hit the IL for a short period in 2024 with the same issue), the Padres will give Pivetta ample time to rest his ailing arm in the hopes of having him available for a postseason run.
These injuries have thinned the depth of the rotation considerably in San Diego. Juan Soto trade returns Michael King and Randy Vasquez are providing quality innings, but the back of the rotation has shown mixed results to this point. Walker Buehler, though a far cry from his Dodgers’ peak, is looking like he still might have something left in the tank. Former Rockies All-Star German Marquez has a 3.86 ERA but less exciting numbers under the hood. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron was hit hard in his 2026 debut.
All three back-end starters have struggled to give the Padres consistent innings at the back of the rotation. Seven of the Padres’ first 23 games have had a starter fail to record an out in the fifth inning. Though Griffin Canning is on the horizon while working through a Triple-A El Paso rehab, the Padres decided that it was worth fortifying the rotation depth for the summer ahead.
Giolito’s contract stipulation for a Major League recall within the next 25 days would put him in line for a mid-May debut. This should give him four turns through the rotation to build up his arm after missing all of Spring Training. Should the rotation remain healthy after Canning joins, the Padres will have some decisions to make. As MLB veterans with ample service time, Buehler and Marquez can’t be optioned without their consent. Someone may end up in the bullpen or pushed off the roster entirely, depending on future health.
For now, San Diego will be happy to kick the roster-crunch can down the road. It’s an affordable, low-risk signing of an MLB-quality arm that could help the team weather the injury storm. The deal is much in the vein of recent similar signings by PBO/GM A.J. Preller. Operating under some payroll constraints after the death of former owner Peter Seidler and the imminent sale of the club, Preller has prioritized creative, low-dollar guarantees to Pivetta, Marquez, Buehler, and now Giolito to minimize the CBT hit (the Padres are currently in the first luxury payor tier). For his part, Giolito gets the opportunity to pitch for a potential contender with a recent record of rehabilitating starting pitchers’ value as he looks to surpass his 2025 platform year for a better offer next offseason.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was the first to report the $3MM guarantee and the $2MM in awards bonuses. Ari Alexander of 7News Boston WHDH had the $1.5MM salary and buyout on the $8MM mutual option plus the $3MM in escalators. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune had the details on the initial minor league assignment and recall stipulation.
Braves To Select JR Ritchie
The Braves are promoting pitching prospect JR Ritchie to start tomorrow afternoon’s game against the Nationals, reports Harrison Smajovits of Sports Illustrated. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Didier Fuentes is being optioned back to Triple-A Gwinnett in the corresponding transaction. Atlanta will also promote Carlos Carrasco to work in long relief.
Fuentes was just recalled this morning. He started this evening but labored over three innings, allowing seven hits and a walk. Fuentes’ inefficiency forced the Braves to bring in Martín Pérez for long relief. The veteran southpaw tossed three innings of two-run ball, which obviously took him out of consideration to start tomorrow’s ballgame.
Atlanta needed a spot starter for the finale of their four-game set in Washington. Long relievers José Suarez and Dylan Dodd each pitched on Tuesday, and Dodd is reportedly going on the injured list. A bullpen game would have been a lot to ask. Reynaldo López only completed one inning last night, so every Braves reliever has pitched within the past two days.
Ritchie was the logical candidate to take the ball. The 2022 supplemental first-round draftee has been Gwinnett’s best pitcher in the early going. Ritchie has only given up three runs through his first 27 1/3 innings while striking out 26.2% of opposing hitters. He has tiptoed around erratic command, as he’s walked 13 batters and plunked four more.
Although the 22-year-old isn’t a finished product, he’s likely to be up and down throughout the season as a key rotation depth piece. Baseball America ranks Ritchie as the #2 prospect in the Atlanta system, crediting him with a deep arsenal and a chance to be a #4 starter. Ritchie has been in the 93-94 mph range with his four-seam fastball and sinker this season. He throws four distinct offspeed pitches — a changeup, cutter, slider and curveball.
It’s past the point at which Ritchie can reach a full year of service time in 2026. He was on the preseason Top 100 lists at each of BA, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. He therefore meets the threshold for the Prospect Promotion Incentive and could “earn” a service year if he finishes top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. The Braves would not receive an extra draft choice in that scenario because he wasn’t on the MLB roster for 172+ days.
There’s a decent chance this is a one-off appearance regardless. Ritchie will be the only healthy, optionable pitcher on their active roster aside from top setup man Dylan Lee. Atlanta has an off day on Monday. The Braves could option Ritchie after tomorrow’s appearance to get an extra bullpen arm up for their weekend series against the Phillies. Pérez would be ready to start in the middle of next week. Spencer Strider probably only needs one more rehab outing before he returns to the rotation.