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Braves To Non-Tender Charlie Culberson

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The Braves will non-tender infielder/outfielder Charlie Culberson prior to tonight’s deadline, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted not long before that the organization was considering such a move. Culberson will immediately become a free agent who is eligible to sign with any team.

It’ll go down as an unpopular move among Atlanta fans, as Culberson has not only distanced himself from a woeful slump to begin his Braves tenure in 2018 (.203/.266/.339 through his first two months) but also emerged as something of a fan favorite after excelling in some clutch situations in 2018. Overall, his 2018 campaign resulted in a productive .270/.326/.466 batting line through 322 plate appearances.

However, Culberson was limited to just 144 plate appearances in 2019 despite appearing in 108 games, and he wasn’t particularly productive when he did step to the plate, hitting .259/.294/.437 (83 OPS+, 85 wRC+). His 2019 season was cut short in September by a fractured cheek bone suffered upon being hit by a Fernando Rodney fastball, but there’s no indication to this point that he’s expected to miss time in 2020. Still, this year’s downturn in production landed him on our list of non-tender candidates late last week.

In all, Culberson posted a respectable .267/.316/.457 batting line in 466 plate appearances as a Brave, but the team apparently wasn’t comfortable with what he might earn in arbitration. (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $1.8MM salary.) Any club that picks him up would be able to sign him to just a one-year pact and still control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

On the heels of their second straight NL East-winning campaign, the Braves have gotten off to an aggressive start this offseason. General manager Alex Anthopoulos, who’s trying to build an Atlanta team capable of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2001, has doled out an array of guaranteed contracts in the early stages of the winter. But the club’s still in danger of losing one of its top performers from 2019, free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Braves’ bullpen was unreliable during the season, which is why Anthopoulos started making over the unit in the summer. He swung pre-deadline trades for Shane Greene, Mark Melancon and setup man Chris Martin, who will return as key members of the group in 2020. Martin had been in line to leave, but the Braves instead brought back the nomadic 33-year-old right-hander on a two-year, $14MM contract a couple weeks ago. Likewise, they re-signed righty Darren O’Day this month, preventing his exit with a $2.75MM guarantee. Originally acquired from the Orioles before the 2018 deadline, hamstring and forearm injuries stopped the 37-year-old O’Day from pitching for the Braves until this September. But when O’Day finally retook the mound, he looked like the steady reliever he has been throughout his long career.

While the Martin and O’Day re-signings are hard to argue with, no move the Braves have made thus far should help more than the splashy addition of Will Smith. Once Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, the left-handed Smith, 30, became the undisputed premier reliever in this class. Previously with the Giants, Smith earned his first All-Star nod in 2019, during which he fired 65 1/3 innings of 2.76 ERA ball, posted 13.22 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 and racked up 34 saves in 38 attempts.

As a result of his brilliant final season in San Francisco, MLBTR forecast a three-year, $42MM at the outset of free agency. The Braves, to their credit, paid a little less than that. They reeled in the Georgia-born Smith for $40MM over three years, though it seems they plan is to use him as a setup man to his former Giants teammate Melancon. Regardless, with the two of them, Greene, Martin and O’Day among its best late-game choices, Atlanta has remade its relief corps dating back to the summer. The Braves’ bullpen, although not particularly young, now looks like a strength.

While the bullpen has been Anthopoulos’ primary focus to this point, he has also overseen several moves on the position player side. First of all, outfielder Nick Markakis and catcher Tyler Flowers are back. The Braves bought out both players’ options for $2MM after the season, only to re-up them for guarantees of $4MM. The club still has to pay the pair $6MM apiece, but they’ll only count for $4MM in salary toward next year’s payroll. Whether that will actually matter remains to be seen, as the Braves aren’t typically a team that has to fear the luxury tax.

The lefty-swinging Markakis seems likely to platoon with the righty-hitting Adam Duvall in one of the outfield corners in 2020, continuing to bridge the gap toward promotions for high-end prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. In the meantime, Markakis, Duvall, potential starter Ender Inciarte (if he’s not traded) and Austin Riley don’t make for the most confidence-inspiring quartet, though superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is obviously well-equipped to keep serving as the rising tide that lifts all boats in the outfield.

Behind the plate, Flowers remained a decent option last season, once again combining adequate offense (relative to his position) with elite pitch-framing skills. He teamed with Brian McCann and Francisco Cervelli then, but the former retired after a stellar career and the latter is a free agent. With that in mind, the Braves needed a new partner for Flowers. They got one in Travis d’Arnaud, whom they signed to a two-year, $16MM deal last week.

A former Blue Jay, d’Arnaud is now reunited with Anthopoulos, Toronto’s ex-GM. It was Anthopoulos who traded d’Arnaud out of Canada, landing then-star knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in a 2012 blockbuster with the Mets. D’Arnaud was an elite prospect at that point, but he wound up enduring a somewhat disappointing Mets tenure that was consistently marred by injuries. The Mets finally had enough of d’Arnaud early last season, designating him for assignment, but he has enjoyed a career renaissance since. The 30-year-old rebuilt his stock as a Ray over the past several months, thus turning himself into either the second- or third-best catcher on the open market. MLBTR projected a two-year, $14MM deal, so his Braves payday hardly came as a surprise.

Every pact Atlanta has handed out so far looks reasonable, but it’s still worth wondering how much more ownership is willing to spend. Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei has said the team still plans to “spend some money,” but it’s just about anyone’s guess what that means. The Braves began last season with a payroll in the $115MM range and have never spent more than $122MM-plus on a season-opening roster, per Cot’s. Now, according to the math of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs, they already have about $127MM in commitments for next year. There’s room to cut some of that out via non-tenders and trades (Inciarte?), but those moves wouldn’t free up a windfall of cash.

While it’s unclear how much more money Atlanta’s willing to put into its roster, it’s inarguable the club remains in need of upgrades. Third base, such a strength a season ago, is now a massive question mark with Donaldson unsigned. The Braves and Donaldson have expressed a desire to stay together on multiple occasions. Problem is that his next contract could be fairly exorbitant (MLBTR projects $75MM over three years), and several other teams have been eyeing him since free agency commenced. No doubt, Donaldson’s the No. 2 third baseman on the market, trailing only Anthony Rendon. But if the Braves don’t want to pay Donaldson, they can probably forget about splurging on Rendon for $200-some mill. That could point them to Mike Moustakas, whom they’ve showed interest in and whose next deal should come in around $20MM. Moustakas is no Donaldson or Rendon, but he’d make for a nice stopgap and allow Riley to either continue in the outfield or head to Triple-A for further seasoning. Moose would also be an easy upgrade over Johan Camargo, who’s coming off a season in which he recorded disastrous numbers.

Aside from third, the Braves’ rotation sticks out as a sore spot, especially after the club bought out innings eater Julio Teheran and saw Dallas Keuchel hit free agency. Supreme young building block Mike Soroka’s back, as are Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. The rest of the group is decidedly less proven, with Sean Newcomb potentially returning to a starting role after a year spent mostly as a reliever. Kyle Wright’s a former top 40 prospect who could also factor in, but his MLB experience is limited (and his brief action in the majors hasn’t gone well). Meanwhile, promising prospects Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson have logged few to no innings above the minors.

So now what? Well, there are several avenues the Braves could explore. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg look like pipe dreams, but the rest of this starting class appears far more realistic. Former Giant Madison Bumgarner is reportedly high atop the Braves’ wish list, though he won’t come cheap. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cole Hamels and Keuchel are all poised to cash in to varying extents.

If the Braves don’t win the bidding for any starters near the head of the class, they could turn to the trade market, where they’d perhaps be able to take advantage of their impressive farm system to acquire proven, affordable, controllable talent. The Braves had interest in Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd during the summer. Boyd wound up staying put, but he once again sticks out as one of the most obvious trade candidates in the game. Aside from Boyd, the D-backs’ Robbie Ray, the Pirates’ Chris Archer, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, the Indians’ Corey Kluber and the Marlins’ Caleb Smith represent starters who made it to the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams just put together.

In terms of ideas that are of the pie-in-the-sky variety, would the Braves dare try to assemble a package for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? Picking up either could mean parting with stud prospects and incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson, but either would be the type of acquisition who would place the Braves near the top of the league’s list of World Series contenders entering 2020. Of course, both players are only under control for two more years – the same amount of time as Braves franchise first baseman and extension candidate Freddie Freeman. Would the team be able to extend both? That’s one of several reasons it’s worth wondering whether the Braves would be interested in this sort of trade. Nevertheless, it’s at least worth bringing up as a possibility.

The offseason’s only a few weeks old, but Anthopoulos has already crammed an entire winter’s worth of action into the month of November. With third base seemingly open and at least one rotation spot potentially up for grabs, you can bet the GM isn’t done yet.

On The Braves' Busy Offseason

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  • While the Braves have been the winter’s busiest team thus far, their “offseason will rise/fall on [Josh] Donaldson’s decision,” Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution opines.  Missing out on Donaldson would leave the team with a big hole in the lineup, and one that couldn’t be entirely filled by another third base addition like Mike Moustakas.  As Bradley puts it, “Moustakas is a good player. Donaldson and [Anthony] Rendon are great players.”  This take is perhaps rather dismissive of Moustakas’ abilities, as while Donaldson is the better player, there is some upside to inking a lesser third base option — for instance, Atlanta could sign Moustakas and a starting pitcher for the same price it would take to land just Donaldson.  While it remains to be seen if Donaldson will be re-signed, Bradley notes that the Braves’ early flurry of signings has quieted some critics who felt the team wasn’t prepared to spend to reinforce its NL East-winning roster.
  • The Braves’ quick pace wasn’t by design, however, as GM Alex Anthopoulos tells The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (subscription required).  “I’m not in a position to forecast what the rest of our offseason is going to look like because what we’ve done so far was really just circumstance.  It just happened to come together the way it did,” Anthopoulos said, noting that the deals with Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, Nick Markakis, and Tyler Flowers were aided by the fact that all four players were already with Atlanta in 2019.  As a result, Stark writes that fans might be disappointed if they think Atlanta’s moves or the White Sox moving quickly to sign Yasmani Grandal could signal a busier hot stove season for all 30 teams rather than the slow-moving winters of the last two years.

Braves Sign Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves have signed free-agent catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year contract worth $16MM dollars, according to an official team announcement. The deal will pay him $8MM in both 2020 and 2021.

Travis d'Arnaud | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves continue their busy winter, adding a position player to the healthy crop of relievers they have already inked. Between guarantees handed out to Will Smith, Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, and now d’Arnaud, the Braves are wasting no time adding upgrades to a team that came up a game short of the NLCS in 2019. In d’Arnaud, GM Alex Anthopoulos adds MLBTR’s 26th-ranked free agent on guarantee that slightly exceeds our prediction.

The contract puts a bow on what’s turned out to be a nice year and a surprising turnaround for d’Arnaud, who found himself jobless after the Mets designated him for assignment in May. After a pit stop with the Dodgers, he was dealt to the Rays and proceeded to post a .263/.323/.459 batting line for his new club, representing an integral part of the team’s playoff run. His 16 home runs matched a career-best mark, with d’Arnaud doing much of his damage against left-handers, against whom he notched a 130 wRC+.

Equally notable was d’Arnaud’s ability to stay healthy in Tampa, an issue that plagued his stint with the Mets. After he was acquired as a promising catching prospect in 2012, d’Arnaud appeared in more than 75 games in just two of six seasons with the Mets, including a 2018 season in which he missed all but four games thanks to Tommy John surgery.

As a defensive catcher, d’Arnaud is regarded as an above-average framer, though he saw his numbers in that department dip in 2019 compared to his Mets days. Baseball Savant measures his average pop time in the 55th percentile, which allowed him to throw out 29 percent of would-be base stealers in 2019, a notch above his career mark of 22 percent.

In Atlanta, d’Arnaud will join incumbent Tyler Flowers to make up a solid catching tandem that will earn a combined $12MM this year. With Braves icon Brian McCann retiring and Francisco Cervelli hitting free agency, the team found itself in need of a second option heading into the winter. We’ll see just how Brian Snitker and the Braves’ decision-makers allocate playing time between Flowers and d’Arnaud, but the bet here is that d’Arnaud settles into the primary starting role with Flowers getting into the lineup a couple times every week. Flowers’s framing prowess likely gives him the edge over d’Arnaud defensively, but his offensive track record is spotty.

With top free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal signing with the White Sox on Thursday and d’Arnaud now off the board, teams who entered the offseason in need of catching help have seen their options thin out considerably in the blink of an eye. It wasn’t an especially deep class of free agents to begin with, and d’Arnaud was widely considered the second-best catcher on the market. The top remaining options include Robinson Chirinos, Yan Gomes, and Martin Maldonado.

Will Smith's Unique Value Among Free Agents

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  • Wednesday’s deadline to add players to 40-man roster’s in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft brought a flurry of activity, and we’ve already covered some of the more interesting veterans that were DFA’d to accommodate various roster moves. But what of the 112 players who found themselves on MLB organizational rosters for the first time? Many of them, as noted in a piece from MLB.com’s Jim Callis, are a good reminder of the labyrinthian routes s0me players have to take in order to achieve their dreams of donning big league uniforms. Callis’ list features a former prep standout who overcame addiction issues to achieve success in the minors (Phil Pfeifer of the Braves), a former Mexican League pitcher who, despite never pitching above High-A, intrigued this season with a 94-98 mph heater (Manuel Rodriguez of the Cubs), and a 2013 DR signing who may reach the bigs with a new org after previously spending a half-decade in Rookie ball (Christopher Sanchez, who arrived to the Phillies via trade from the Rays on Wednesday). They may not represent household names, but they may represent a few new names to root for.
  • Kudos to Joel Sherman of The New York Post for authoring a thoroughly interesting piece that attempts to explain why Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith, in particular, represented the first major signings of the 2019-2020 offseason (link). It was Grandal and Smith’s relatively “distinct” profiles, in Sherman’s view, that prompted the White Sox and Braves, respectively, to lunge toward early signings; while teams may be able to convince themselves, for example, that Zack Wheeler makes for a decent alternative to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there were no such viable alternatives to Smith, a left-handed reliever capable of pitching to both sides of the plate, or Grandal, a switch-hitting catcher who excels at both sides of the game. While the next-best lefty reliever may be Drew Pomeranz, it’s not as if teams would feel entirely comfortable with that pitcher’s comparative lack of a relief track record; same goes for Travis d’Arnaud, a player who, despite his arguable position as the market’s second-best backstop, simply doesn’t offer Grandal’s history of sustained success (or health). As Sherman touches on, Smith’s well-rounded ability, in particular, could prove to be a boon for the Braves. With next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule, it’s generally impossible, at this juncture, to predict how teams might be compromised in late-inning situations. While recent years have seen a LOOGY or two stashed on every staff, pitchers like Smith figure to become increasingly valuable under the new rules, where relievers will likely have to face at least one opposite-handed batter. In 65.1 innings in 2019, the Braves’ newest addition was death on same-handed batters (.166 wOBA) but more-than-useful against righties as well (.298 wOBA).

Liberty CEO Maffei Foresees More Offseason Spending For Braves

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Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei briefly discussed the Braves offseason outlook in a television appearance on CNBC yesterday. In the course of a ten-minute interview with CNBC’s David Faber, Maffei indicated that the club plans to “spend some money” this winter, even after the club’s recent addition of roughly $30MM in new commitments to their 2020 payroll.

“We’re well set up…with young talent,” Maffei told Faber before referencing Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies as some of the club’s key young players. “But in addition, we just signed Will Smith–probably the best reliever in baseball. Yeah, we’re going to spend some money, and we have relative freedom under the cap and in our payroll compared to most people, including the Mets.”

These comments, which begin around 6:44 in the above-linked video, can’t be taken as an outright declaration that Atlanta is expecting to shake up the free agent market with a number of high-dollar-figure pacts–after all, phrases like “some money” and “relative freedom” really only tell us that the club isn’t completely hamstrung from a financial perspective

Also from the cold water department: though Maffei references the division-rival Mets, it seems like a stretch to interpret his comments as anything more than a playful barb toward a division rival–consider also that Faber, his interviewer on Thursday, is a self-professed Mets fan. Besides that, it’s simply unlikely, given club history, that Maffei and his associates at Liberty intend to contend with New York from a payroll perspective.

All of these caveats aside, Maffei’s relative candor here shouldn’t be taken lightly–especially considering these comments come at a time when several club executives and ownership figures around the league have cited luxury tax and flexibility concerns as harbingers of quiet offseasons to come. And, to be certain, the Liberty-led Braves do indeed have an enviable slate of contract commitments moving forward, especially when considering the way recent extensions have locked in premier performers at affordable rates.

As it stands, Albies and Acuna are the only Atlanta players under guaranteed contracts past 2021. Readers will remember that the all-world Acuna was locked up via an eight-year, $100MM extension last year; ditto for Albies, who will earn $30MM from 2020-2025. Those deals, regardless of one’s personal feelings about them, should allow the club a great deal of flexibility in its long-term outlook–and that’s before factoring the bevy of quality young players it still maintains at team-control rates, including Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Austin Riley.

The Braves sported a season-ending payroll of $144MM in 2019, and, as things stand now, their 2020 Opening Day number sits at roughly $106MM after accounting for forthcoming arb awards for nine players. The club will see $24.75MM in 2020 commitments to four players–Mark Melancon, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day–come off of the books at the conclusion of next season.  It’s unclear if the “some money” Maffei refers to may be an additional commitment that would inch Atlanta closer to last season’s season-ending figure, but it is worth noting that the club has room in its long-term outlook for a sizable addition. Given their activity this offseason and Maffei’s comments, it would seem they’re inclined to agree.

So far this offseason, the club has signed Smith while also retaining Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, Tyler Flowers, and Markakis. Atlanta has already emerged as one of the winter’s early players, and there could clearly be more action for Braves fans to anticipate in the coming weeks and months: just yesterday, we heard that Atlanta “checked in” on Yasmani Grandal before his signing with the White Sox; they’ve also been said to “have some interest” in former Cardinals and Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna; As for the third base position recently vacated by Josh Donaldson? GM Alex Anthopoulos has been said to be making an “aggressive push” to retain the bringer of rain, while also keeping one eye trained on former Royals and Brewers third baseman Mike Moustakas.

Of course, a less conservative rendering of Maffei’s recent comments may lead us to believe that the club is intent on making a serious addition to the payroll–perhaps in the form of Donaldson, or an even bigger fish. The Braves have never exceeded $122MM in Opening Day commitments, but it’s fair to wonder whether recent playoff appearances–and early playoff exits–may encourage club leaders to lock in a March roster more closely situated toward 2019’s $144MM year-end ceiling. As our own Jeff Todd recently noted, the club could also open up another few inches of headroom by finding a landing spot for Inciarte or Shane Greene, perhaps giving the club upwards of $40MM+ in theoretical payroll space.

Further Details On Chris Martin's Contract

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  • Much like his previous deal with the Rangers, the two-year, $14MM contract reliever Chris Martin signed with the Braves gives him the opportunity to become a free agent at the end of it, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Martin will only have three-plus years’ service time then, meaning he’d remain eligible for arbitration under normal circumstances, but there’s language built into the pact that will allow him to return to the open market when it expires.

Braves "Checked In" On Yasmani Grandal

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  • The Brewers and Blue Jays were previously known to have interest in Grandal this offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) adds that the Reds, Angels, and Braves were also among the top suitors, though Atlanta may have just “checked in” on Grandal’s status.  Cincinnati was MLBTR’s predicted landing spot for Grandal, as the Reds as known to be willing to spend in pursuit of a postseason berth in 2020 and Grandal represented a clear upgrade over Tucker Barnhart.  Catcher was also a glaring area of need for the Angels, while the Braves have one capable regular in Tyler Flowers but are in need of a complement after Brian McCann’s retirement.

Players Added To 40-Man Roster: National League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from National League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

NL West

  • The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Mitchell White, infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry and outfielder DJ Peters. Both White and Peters are considered to be among the club’s top 15 prospects. McKinstry isn’t generally ranked inside L.A.’s top 30, but the 24-year-old had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 while appearing at six defensive positions (shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots).
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Taylor Widener and Riley Smith as well as the contracts of infielders Andy Young and Wyatt Mathisen. Widener, 24, was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects coming into the season but was blown up for an eye-popping 8.10 ERA in 100 innings. He’s only a year removed from 137 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball and an 11.5 K/9 mark in Double-A, however. Smith, 24, was sharp in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A — like many pitching prospects throughout the league (and with the D-backs in particular). Young, acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade last winter, hit 29 homers while playing three infield positions between Double-A and Triple-A. Mathisen, 26 in December, hit .283/.403/.601 in 345 Triple-A plate appearances.
  • The Giants, surprisingly, did not add anyone to their 40-man roster prior to tonight’s deadline.
  • The Rockies selected the contracts of infielder Tyler Nevin, left-hander Ben Bowden and right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Antonio Santos (Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post first reported the news on Twitter). Those four moves will fill the team’s 40-man roster. Of the four, Bowden and Nevin draw the most fanfare. Nevin, the No. 38 pick in the 2015 draft and son of former MLB slugger Phil Nevin, posted deceptively solid numbers in an extremely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment in 2019 (.251/.345/.399 — good for a 122 wRC+). Bowden, a second-round pick in ’16, posted gaudy strikeout numbers but struggled in Triple-A after dominating in Double-A in 2019.
  • The Padres selected outfielder Jorge Ona’s contract and designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, as outlined here.

NL Central

  • The Cardinals announced the additions of Jake Woodford, Elehuris Montero and Alvaro Seijas while designating righty Dominic Leone for assignment (as detailed here at greater length).
  • Outfielder Corey Ray and right-hander J.P. Feyereisen will head onto the Brewers 40-man, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). It’s not yet known if the team will make further roster additions, but it would have five additional spots to work with to do so. Ray was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft but is coming off of a rough season. Feyereisen, who was added in a quiet September swap, will have a chance to challenge for MLB relief opportunities. Milwaukee also added infielder Mark Mathias to the 40-man roster after acquiring him in a trade with the Indians tonight.
  • The Cubs announced that they’ve added catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Zack Short and right-handers Tyson Miller and Manuel Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. Amaya is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking second among Chicago farmhands and drawing some top 100 consideration at MLB.com.
  • Four additions to the 40-man were announced by the Reds, who have selected the contracts of catcher Tyler Stephenson and right-handers Tony Santillan, Ryan Hendrix and Tejay Antone. All four rank within the club’s top 30 at MLB.com, headlined by Santillan at No. 4 and ranging all the way to Antone at No. 30. Santillan thrived in a brief Double-A debut in 2018 but struggled there in a larger 2019 sample (4.84 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings). He’s still just 22, though, and is regarded as a potential big league starter. Stephenson is a former first-round pick who hit well in a highly pitcher-friendly Double-A setting (.285/.372/.410; 130 wRC+). Hendrix posted big strikeout numbers as a reliever in 2019, while Antone displayed sharp ground-ball skills as a starter and reached Triple-A for the first time.
  • The Pirates added prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Will Craig, Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce to the 40-man roster while also designating four pitchers for assignment (as explored in greater length here). Lefty Williams Jerez and right-handers Dario Agrazal, Montana DuRapau and Luis Escobar were cut loose.

NL East

The Braves Suddenly Have A Good But Aging Bullpen

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Attentive Braves fans will know not to get their hopes up too much based upon the team’s first early moves. The club got out ahead of the market last year as well, but mostly sat out after making its primary moves. In Alex Anthopoulos’s second year as GM, he has done even more volume right off the bat but hasn’t matched last year’s Josh Donaldson signing in terms of dramatic impact.

Let’s evaluate:

That’s exactly $30MM in 2020 salary — possibly enough to preclude a more significant payroll addition. The Braves are now over $100MM in commitments for the season to come, which is approaching the limits for an organization that has never topped $122MM in Opening Day payroll and started shy of that figure in each of the past two seasons.

So does this mean that the Braves won’t end up adding a new star to the roster? Maybe! But they’re actually still well positioned to do just that, in one of several ways. The Braves can still play near the upper reaches of the free agent market if they shed some salary. In particular, it wouldn’t be much trouble to move the contracts of Ender Inciarte and Shane Greene (the latter could also be non-tendered if it came to it) if the team prefers to spend elsewhere. That could free something like $14MM in cash. And there’s still also the trade market, through which the Braves can convert prospect capital into lower-salaried talent.

What’s notable about this early run of spending and roster decisions, then, isn’t so much that it means the Braves boosted their relief corps over other moves. Rather, it’s that the Braves — of all teams — have now compiled a rather strong, not especially cheap collection of old guy relievers.

That’s part-joke, part god’s honest truth. The move toward grizzled hurlers began at the 2019 deadline, when Martin, Greene, and Mark Melancon came aboard. Here’s the Opening Day 2020 age and salary of the Braves pen as presently constituted:

  • Mark Melancon, 35, $14MM
  • Will Smith, 30, $13MM
  • Chris Martin, 33, $7MM
  • Shane Greene, 31, $6.5MM (projected)
  • Darren O’Day, 37, $2MM
  • Luke Jackson, 28, $1.9MM (projected)
  • Grant Dayton, 32, $800K (projected)

Conspicuously absent from that list: homegrown young hurlers. Sean Newcomb may yet end up in the pen if he isn’t needed or deemed capable of handling a rotation spot. Regardless, it’s certainly not the bullpen look that would’ve been anticipated this time last year. It’s really an interesting shift in approach; even a few weeks ago, it still seemed safe to presume the Braves were still planning on utilizing a rotating cast of younger pitchers to fill out the rotation. Indeed, I wrote that the Braves could “consider their bullpen fully accounted for” after inking O’Day. Wrong!

That is a strong pen on paper. That’s welcome after a messy 2019. Smith has blossomed into one of the game’s better overall relievers. It still feels surprising the Braves took on Melancon’s full remaining salary, but he was very strong overall in 2019. Martin obliterated the rest of the sport with a 13.0 K/BB ratio last year. The peripherals were also excellent for Jackson, even if he faltered at times. O’Day and Dayton have been good before and showed signs of recapturing their form. Though Greene’s late-season run with the Braves wasn’t quite what might’ve been hoped for, it was hardly a disaster and he ended the season with a cumulative 2.30 ERA.

That said, it must be a bit disappointing for the Braves that they’ve ended up needing to commit this kind of cash to get where they feel comfortable in the relief unit. The waves of young arms have thus far largely disappointed outside of a few notable exceptions. The idea had been that the club’s best starting pitching prospects would not only form up an imposing rotation but spill over into the bullpen, linking up with the team’s short-inning pitching prospects to create an overwhelming overall staff.

But this may just set the stage for the next big moves from Anthopoulos. Quite a few young Braves pitchers still hold promise. Not all will get their chance to chase their ceilings in Atlanta. This year’s slate of players requiring Rule 5 protection has pushed the Braves roster nearly to full capacity with other players still to be added. There’s still plenty of talent pressure coming from lower down the farm system, reducing the available opportunities.

I think you see where I’m heading with this. Without bullpen slots available to run out young pitchers, and without ample payroll capacity remaining, the Braves now seem clearly positioned to swap out talented but not-yet-established hurlers for veterans that can make a near-term impact on the MLB roster. When the dust settles, the Braves will still have plenty of pitching depth — some of which will surely end up carrying a significant portion of the relief load this year even after the recent signings — and a good bit of high-end talent still rising. But some of the arms will end up elsewhere. Which? That’s hard to guess. In theory, dozens of Atlanta hurlers — especially those already taking up space on the club’s 40-man roster — could be talked about in trades.

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