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Latest On Big Three Free Agent Relievers

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SUNDAY: The Marlins might be the mystery team vying for Melancon, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Despite its payroll limitations, Miami is committed to building an elite bullpen and is also chasing Jansen, as Heyman first reported last month, and Chapman. As of a couple weeks ago, the Marlins were “highly unlikely” to land Chapman, per one of his associates.

SATURDAY, 9:49pm: Melancon has four-year offers worth upward of $60MM from the Giants, Nationals and perhaps one other team, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Giants have likely made the strongest offer, tweets Rosenthal.

2:17pm: The Giants are still on the lookout for a closer, and are more likely to find one via the free agent market rather than a trade, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes (all Twitter links). Giants GM Bobby Evans says the team likes all of the so-called Big Three options, which include Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Crasnick further notes that Melancon might make the most sense of the bunch since they pursued him last summer and since he should cost less than Chapman or Jansen. (Also, unlike Jansen, Melancon would not require the loss of a draft pick.) The Giants met last month with the agents of all three players.

Melancon is coming off a terrific season with the Pirates and Nationals in which he posted a 1.64 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 with a strong 54.2 ground ball percentage. He doesn’t have the dominating strikeout totals of Chapman or Jansen, but his results speak for themselves. The Nationals have also reportedly pursued him this winter, and his market has been surprisingly robust, with guesses about what he might be able to get trending upward to the four-year/$60-million range.

Mets “Positioned To Move Fairly Quickly” To Trade Granderson And/Or Bruce

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The Mets are “positioned to move fairly quickly” to trade Curtis Granderson and/or Jay Bruce, Newsday’s Marc Carig writes (Twitter links). While it isn’t likely they trade both, that scenario is a possibility, Carig adds.

After recently re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets have plenty of outfield options, also including Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo, in addition to Granderson and Bruce. Trading both Granderson and Bruce arguably would leave the organization a bit short, but there’s the possibility the Mets could deal both as a prelude to other moves.

Between Granderson and Bruce, the latter appears to be more likely to be traded, as noted earlier this week. If the Mets were to trade Bruce, Granderson could stay and share time with Lagares in center field.

The 29-year-old Bruce had a strong season overall in 2016, batting .250/.309/.506 with 33 homers in 589 plate appearances. He did, however, struggle a bit after arriving in New York via an August 1 trade. The Mets recently exercised his $13MM option for 2017, and he can become a free agent. Granderson hit .237/.335/.464 with 30 home runs of his own. He was also rated as about an average defender in 251 innings in center field, no small feat for a 35-year-old. He’s set to make $15MM in 2017, after which he, too, can become a free agent.

Rangers’ Talks With Ian Desmond Have “Intensified”

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3:23pm: Rangers team officials are “far from optimistic” a deal can be completed with Desmond, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com tweets.

2:40pm: Talks between free agent center fielder Ian Desmond and the Rangers have “intensified” lately, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). Desmond is likely to receive a four-year deal, Morosi adds.

Desmond rejected the Rangers’ qualifying offer last month (as was expected), but it appears he’s ready to listen to other proposals to return to the Rangers, perhaps for a longer term. Desmond hit well for the Rangers in 2016, batting .285/.335/.446 while transitioning fairly seamlessly from shortstop to the outfield. He also impressed the team on a personal level, with GM Jon Daniels saying in October that he appreciated Desmond’s behavior “as a person and [with] the consistency he brought from that standpoint.”

Desmond therefore is in a much stronger position this offseason than he was last year, when he settled for a mere $8MM guarantee after batting .233/.290/.384 in his last year in Washington. MLBTR has predicted that Desmond will receive four years and $60MM on his next contract.

The Rangers are in need of a center fielder after losing both Desmond and Carlos Gomez to free agency. They’ll have to set themselves apart from what might be a large group of suitors to get Desmond back, though, as he’s already reportedly attracted interest from the Nationals, Orioles and Blue Jays.

Orioles, Rays, Braves Among Teams Interested In Welington Castillo

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1:17pm: Add the Orioles to the list of teams interested in Castillo, as MASN’s Roch Kubatko tweets. The Orioles could lose Matt Wieters to free agency and have been interested in Castillo for some time, according to Kubatko.

11:03am: The Diamondbacks’ unexpected decision to non-tender Welington Castillo has added a new name to the free agent catching market, and Castillo is already receiving interest. The Rays are “expected to aggressively pursue” Castillo, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote last night. The Rays, who currently have Luke Maile and Curt Casali atop their depth chart at catcher, were already expected to look for catching help, so it’s easy to see why the surprise addition of a .264/.322/.423 hitter and longtime starter to the market would be intriguing for them.

Topkin also tweeted this morning, though, that Castillo was receiving a number of calls, and not just from the Rays. It’s possible one of those teams could be the Braves, who have “some interest,” as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. Current Braves backstop Tyler Flowers hit fairly well last year and rates as a good framer, and he and fellow catchers Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch are all now under contract for 2017. Castillo could certainly still help the Braves, however, and it stands to reason that they’d have interest, since they’ve also shown at least some interest in free agent backstops like Matt Wieters and Jason Castro.

Notable 2016 Non-Tenders

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Yesterday was the deadline for teams to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, and they cut loose a number of intriguing players, adding to the free agent market at a number of key positions. Here’s a look at the most important non-tenders.

  • Tyson Ross, Padres. San Diego cut Ross and five other players loose on Friday, adding a big name to a thin starting pitching market. Ross missed most of the 2016 season due to injury and had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, which figured to require a four- to six-month recovery period. He also wouldn’t have been cheap for 2017, making a projected $9.6MM. Nonetheless, Ross would be an interesting free agent even if there weren’t so little good starting pitching available. In 2015, he pitched 196 innings, with a 3.26 ERA, 3.9 BB/9 and an outstanding 9.7 K/9. He also has a career 56% ground ball rate.
  • Chris Carter, Brewers. Milwaukee designated their first baseman for assignment last week, then officially non-tendered him yesterday. It isn’t typical to see a home run champ non-tendered, but Carter’s consistently high strikeout totals, consistently low batting average and lack of defensive value made him a tricky case, especially since those factors would have been weighted less heavily by the arbitration process than his gaudy home-run totals. We examined the Brewers’ case for non-tendering Carter back in October.
  • Welington Castillo and Rubby De La Rosa, Diamondbacks. That the Snakes would non-tender a consistently productive starting catcher like Castillo rated as one of the tender deadline’s bigger surprises. Castillo batted a fine .264/.322/.423 in 2016 and looks like a strong addition to a rather thin free agent market for backstops. De La Rosa, too, is worth watching this winter — health concerns surely played a role in the Diamondbacks’ decision to cut him loose, and Tommy John surgery could be a possibility at some point after his recent stem cell treatment on his elbow. but De La Rosa’s blistering fastball, solid ground-ball ability and 9.6 K/9 in 2016 make him an intriguing free agent, particularly if teams are optimistic about his health.
  • Ben Revere, Nationals. Washington’s decision to non-tender Revere (who we projected would make $6.3MM through the arbitration process this winter) came as no surprise after he hit just .217/.260/.300 while struggling with an oblique injury in 2016. Still, Revere had batted at least .294 in each of the four previous seasons, stealing 142 bases in that span. He’s also just 28. Teams interested in outfield help could, therefore, view him as a candidate to contribute next season.
  • Seth Maness, Cardinals. St. Louis’ decision to non-tender Maness was surely due in large part to his health, as he had UCL surgery in August. He was, however, consistently productive as a sort of ground ball specialist in parts of four seasons with the Cardinals, producing a lifetime 3.19 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 59.4 GB%. The Cards portray their decision to non-tender him as mostly a roster issue, as the addition of John Gant in the recent Jaime Garcia trade gave them additional bullpen help, and rookie Matt Bowman emerged in 2016 as a ground ball specialist in his own right.
  • Jeff Manship, Indians. The 31-year-old righty produced an 0.92 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 for Cleveland in a terrific 2015 season and helped again in 2016, with a 3.12 ERA. He had long pitched mostly in the minor leagues before that, though, and his 4.6 BB/9 last season didn’t portend a high degree of future success.
  • Vance Worley, Orioles. Worley’s teams seemingly continue to view him as a marginal player even as he remains consistently useful. In 2016, pitched 86 2/3 innings for Baltimore, generally pitching out of the bullpen but also making four starts. He produced a 3.53 ERA and a 48.1% ground ball rate, although his peripherals (5.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9) headed in the wrong direction. He still looks like a credible long reliever, though, and his ability to start also helps.
  • Jeff Locke, Pirates. The Bucs’ decision to part ways with Locke was likely an easy one after he produced a miseable 5.44 ERA, 5.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 2016, ultimately losing his job in the rotation. Still, Locke has logged at least 127 1/3 innings in each of the last four seasons and could help a team in search of rotation depth this winter.

Joey Votto Maintains He Wants To Stay In Cincinnati

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Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who has a full no-trade clause and $179MM remaining on his contract, maintains that he would prefer to remain in Cincinnati, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Votto produced an outstanding .326/.434/.550 line in 677 plate appearances last season, and it sounds like he wants to remain a Red as long as the team can still find a use for him. The Reds, of course, are rebuilding, and have traded a long string of veterans in the past couple years, including Todd Frazier, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. It sounds, however, like neither Votto nor the Reds have any desire to add Votto to that list, at least not right now.

“I’ve worked really hard to not look [bad] in my career and I’ve worked really hard to be a loyal worker, and I’d like to keep that going,” says Votto. “Until I feel like I’m being shuffled out, you saw [that] last year with Brandon [Phillips], you saw it in Philadelphia with Chase Utley. Until I start feeling like the broom is on my heels, I’ll be a really nice guy. If I feel the broom on my heels, I’ll be a bit of [a jerk]. I’m not going to be a nice guy.”

Votto adds that he looks up to stars in other sports who have been able to play their entire careers with one team.  “I admire [the NBA’s] Tim Duncan in San Antonio,” he says. “Never once did you hear about him going anywhere. Or [the NFL’s] Tom Brady in New England. Never once do you hear about him going anywhere, because they hold up to their end of the bargain by performing at a certain level and teams are excited to keep them.”

Reds GM Dick Williams repeats that he has made no efforts to trade Votto this offseason. Two weeks ago, he said he had not spoken with Votto about the possibility of waiving his no-trade clause.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Wieters

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Matt Wieters’ last few seasons haven’t been exceptional, but on a thin free agent market, he stands out as an average catcher with, perhaps, the potential to be something more. Here’s a look at how the offseason could work for him.

Matt WietersPros/Strengths

Wieters’ value stems mostly from the fact that he’s a competent defensive catcher with offensive ability. Though his defense behind the dish no longer rates as outstanding (as it did early in his career, when he won two Gold Gloves), DRS currently pegs him as roughly average, which itself gives his value a high baseline. Per Baseball Prospectus (subscription-only link), Wieters still throws well and is solid in the pitch-blocking department.

Wieters also no longer has the bat he did earlier in his career, when he hit either 22 or 23 homers in three straight seasons from 2011 through 2013. His power, however, remains respectable for a catcher. Last season, he hit 17 home runs, ranking ninth in the Majors among backstops.

Plus, he’s just thirty years of age and does have a solid, established offensive ceiling. Over the 2011-12 seasons, Wieters posted a composite .255/.329/.442 slash line across 1,144 plate appearances. While that may have been somewhat BABIP driven, he has posted career-best line-drive rates of late and has made hard contact at the same rates he did in his most productive seasons. Despite a down 2016, he was a league-average hitter as recently as the campaign prior, so it wouldn’t be terribly surprising if he could return to that level or perhaps even provide a bit more at the plate.

Wieters also showed in 2016 that he could stay healthy, picking up 464 plate appearances after two injury-shortened seasons. Perhaps there’s a speculative case to be made that, two years removed from an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, he might have more upside than a 30-year-old catcher typically does, in the same way a pitcher who’s had Tommy John might be expected to pitch better the further he gets from the surgery.

Cons/Weaknesses

Wieters’ framing numbers have been underwhelming, with StatCorner pegging his framing at 15.9 runs below average over the past two seasons. As ESPN’s Buster Olney recently pointed out, framing is increasingly a key metric by which teams evaluate catchers, which is why Jason Castro was able to land a three-year, $24.5MM guarantee despite modest offensive numbers. Wieters’ framing issues could put a serious dent in his market, unless teams see reason to believe he could return to posting the solid figures in that arena that he featured earlier in his career.

Beyond that, Wieters’ career overall has been modestly disappointing, and it doesn’t look likely to trend upwards now that he’s 30. Wieters entered the league as a mega-prospect — a catcher with the potential to play high-quality defense while hitting for average, power and patience. He never quite achieved that potential, and he has struggled offensively since returning from Tommy John.

The cliche that catcher performance falls off a cliff in a player’s early 30s appears to be overstated, but Wieters, due to his age, might have already entered the decline phase of his career. He has produced just 2.7 fWAR total over the past two years (the first of which was truncated by his return from Tommy John), and 2017 will be his age-31 season. Wieters has a big frame for a backstop and has already dealt with significant injuries (though that has primarily been to his elbow). Depending upon one’s perspective, there may not be much reason to be optimistic he’ll be much more than an average catcher going forward.

Background

Wieters was born and raised in South Carolina and played high school ball alongside another future Major Leaguer, Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. Wieters then headed to Georgia Tech, where he earned All-America honors twice, batting .349/.477/.594 while serving as the Yellow Jackets’ catcher (and also their closer). The Orioles took him with the fifth overall pick in 2007, awarding him a $6MM bonus. He quickly emerged as a highly touted prospect — expectations for him were so high that fans created a humorous website, Matt Wieters Facts, to celebrate his skill set. (Sample skill: “Matt Wieters sometimes impatiently homers from the on-deck circle.”) Wieters and his wife Maria have two sons.

Market

Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, likes to allow the market to unfold unless he gets a contract he loves, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Wieters lingered as a free agent for awhile. Unlike last season, he won’t have the burden of a qualifying offer, as the Orioles elected not to give him one this time around after he accepted a one-year, $15.8MM deal for 2016.

When Wieters finally does sign, the Braves seem like an obvious possibility, due to Wieters’ local roots, the Braves’ lack of an established catcher, and the opening of their new stadium. The Braves also recently hired former Orioles pitching coach Dave Wallace and bullpen coach Dom Chiti. The Braves, however, are said to be “lukewarm” on Wieters, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, who writes that some in the Orioles organization while Wallace and Chiti were there questioned Wieters’ work behind the plate.

A return to the Orioles (who have a big hole at catcher, with Caleb Joseph and his .174/.216/.197 2016 batting line topping their depth chart) would also make sense, although with a variety of large commitments and key pending arbitration cases, the team’s budget could be a problem. It’s also unclear how willing the O’s would be to make a big commitment after declining to extend Wieters a qualifying offer. Near the end of the season, Wieters and the Orioles were reportedly very far apart in their estimations of what sort of extension he should receive. The Orioles also have a good catching prospect in Chance Sisco who could be ready in 2018, and they might be somewhat reluctant to block him by signing Wieters to a multi-year deal.

The Nationals, Angels and Rockies could also be fits. Two weeks ago, the Twins and Astros also might have been possibilities, but those teams have since filled their vacancies with Castro (to Minnesota) and Brian McCann (to Houston).

Still, there are plenty of potential suitors, and the lack of obvious starting catching available could help Wieters. The only other catchers left on the market from MLBTR’s list of the offseason top 50 are Wilson Ramos and Nick Hundley, and Ramos is dealing with an ACL and meniscus injury that figures to carry over into the season. Wieters, despite his faults, has a compelling case that he’s the best healthy catcher available on the free agent market.

Expected Contract

MLBTR predicts Wieters will seek a four-year deal, but will ultimately settle for a three-year, $39MM pact that covers his age-31 through age-33 seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB, Union To Continue Negotiating Next CBA

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TODAY: The owners made new proposals in regards to the international draft and the luxury tax during today’s talks, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links), though progress is still said to be slow.  Talks will continue tomorrow at union meetings in Dallas, where Rosenthal predicts the negotiations “should intensify.”

SATURDAY: A lockout is still a possibility as the league and the union negotiate the next CBA in advance of Thursday’s deadline, but there are strong hopes it can be avoided after MLB offered to remove the current system of draft pick forfeiture associated with the qualifying offer, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports writes. Such a change would make MLB free agency “the freest free agency in sports,” in the words of one of Heyman’s sources. In return, the league wants the players to agree to an international draft.

Under the current system, if a player refuses a qualifying offer, interested teams must give up a top draft choice to sign him. The players dislike this rule because it reduces the market value of players on the edges of the qualifying offer system — including, in recent years, players like Ian Desmond, Kendrys Morales, Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz. Recently, players such as Neil Walker, Jeremy Hellickson and Brett Anderson have accepted qualifying offers, receiving less long-term security than they perhaps would have gotten on the open market.

The players also do not like the idea of an international draft, which would affect prospects throughout Latin America. Heyman writes, though, that draft pick forfeiture is considerably more costly to them than an international draft would be, particularly since a significant percentage of international bonuses go to players who don’t make the Majors.

Still, there are other topics that must be resolved, Heyman notes. One issue is the luxury tax threshold — the league has reportedly agreed to increase it from $189MM to $200MM, but the two sides have not agreed on a final number.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal had previously reported that a lockout was a possibility. Reporting since then from Buster Olney and Jayson Stark of ESPN has suggested that there was reason for optimism that a deal could be completed.

East Notes: Yankees, Rodriguez, Rays

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The Yankees are in the closing stages of Hal Steinbrenner’s rebuilding plan, and they should not deviate from it now, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. That means they must give young players the opportunities they need, both in the minors and in the big leagues. Sherman cites the example of Aaron Judge, a flawed but interesting player who might need extensive development time in the Majors before he hits his ceiling. The Yankees have a number of big-league players, like Greg Bird, Luis Severino and Luis Cessa, who will also require patience to develop, along with a very talented group of minor leaguers. Sherman notes that teams like the Cubs and Red Sox made their aggressive pushes only when it was clear they had a core of young talent that was ready to help. The Yankees should also be looking to accumulate financial flexibility, so that, in a couple years, when they’re a bit older and players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and Shohei Otani are available as free agents, the Yankees will be in the best possible position to add them to their own strong core. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • Sean Rodriguez’s big step forward last year was propelled by changes he made to his plate discipline against righties and to his launch angles, Eno Sarris of FanGraphs writes. Even if he doesn’t retain all of his 2016 improvement next season, though, he’s a good match for the Braves, Sarris opines. Rodriguez’s abilities to hit lefties and play several positions give the Braves platoon options at second base (with Jace Peterson) and the outfield (with Nick Markakis). Also, the relatively cheap $11.5 million guarantee limits the Braves’ downside if Rodriguez fails to live up to his surprising 2016 performance.
  • The Rays haven’t yet made any significant moves this offseason, and some of the deals made by other teams might have thwarted them to a degree, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests. Jason Castro and Brett Cecil stood out as potential fits for the Rays, but other teams signed them at relatively high costs. GM Erik Neander, though, says the opportunities available later in the offseason might turn out to be better for the Rays. “Early offseason signings are typically the result of a very competitive market for those players,” says Neander. “Sometimes it’s difficult to contend with that, but not always. Our job is to be prepared, try to do our evaluations correctly, wait for the right opportunity to arise and be in position to strike when it does.”

NL Notes: Cardinals, Blevins, Mets, Diamondbacks

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The Cardinals are on the lookout for center field help, and while free agents Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond could be possibilities, the team could also turn to less obvious solutions, ESPN’s Mark Saxon writes. One of those is Carlos Gomez, who excelled down the stretch with the Rangers, and could be a riskier, but perhaps also more upside-laden, alternative to someone like Fowler. Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna and Jarrod Dyson could also be possibilities via the trade market, Saxon suggests. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Mets have spoken to Jerry Blevins about a return, but the lefty is likely to find a free agent deal beyond the team’s price range, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. Ackert also feels that catcher Rene Rivera and utilityman Kelly Johnson probably won’t be back with the Mets next season — Rivera’s projected $2.2MM arbitration salary is pricey for a backup catcher, while Johnson is “not a priority,” though New York could see if Johnson is available on a low-cost one-year deal. Ackert also covers other Mets offseason topics as part of the mailbag piece.
  • The Diamondbacks have hired former Cardinals international crosschecker Cesar Geronimo Jr. to serve as their new Latin American scouting director, writes Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Geronimo, the son of former Astros, Reds and Royals outfielder Cesar Geronimo, had success with St. Louis after becoming international crosschecker early in 2012, as the Cardinals signed good prospects like Alex Reyes, outfielder Magneuris Sierra, shortstop Edmundo Sosa, and righties Sandy Alcantara and Junior Fernandez. The hire is a significant one for the Diamondbacks’ new front office — beginning July 2, the team figures to be free of international bonus penalties for the first time since their seemingly poor decision to sign Yoan Lopez for $8.26MM in the 2014-15 signing period. Depending on the terms of the next CBA, the Diamondbacks could also have a large pool to work with after winning just 69 games in 2016.

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