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The First Five No. 1 Picks

By Connor Byrne | May 20, 2020 at 11:41pm CDT

The Major League Baseball amateur draft first came about in 1965. Since then, plenty of first overall picks have made a mark in the bigs, while many others have disappointed. Having already looked at the top selections from 2010-19, 2000-09, the 1990s, the 1980s and the 1970s, we’ll now turn our focus to the first five players who went No. 1 overall…

1965 – Rick Monday, OF, Kansas City Athletics:

You know you’re going back in time when you’re talking about the Kansas City Athletics, who moved to Oakland prior to the 1968 season. In any event, the KC version of the franchise made Monday the first No. 1 overall pick ever. Monday wound up as a very productive big leaguer with the A’s, Cubs and Dodgers from ’66 through 1984, during which he made two All-Star teams and batted .264/.361/.443 with 243 home runs and 31.1 fWAR. However, Monday may be best known for saving the American flag from being burnt by a couple of miscreants in LA in 1976. Take it away, Vin Scully.

1966 – Steve Chilcott, C, Mets:

  • Chilcott’s one of the few No. 1s to never appear in the majors, thanks in part to injuries. He played in the minors with the Mets and Yankees from 1966-72, but could only muster a .569 OPS during that stretch. Speaking of the Yankees, you know who went one pick after Chilcott? Mr. October, Reginald Martinez Jackson. That should still sting for the Mets.

1967 – Ron Blomberg, 1B, Yankees:

  • A fun bit of trivia: Blomberg was the first-ever DH, in 1973. In regards to the position, he told Bill Ladson of MLB.com in 2017: “I love the DH. I hate to watch the pitchers hit. It’s the most boring thing in the world, even in batting practice. The DH is like the three-point [shot] in the NBA and college basketball. It brought a lot of excitement to the game.” It’s a polarizing topic, but I totally agree with Blomberg, who had a wonderful career as a hitter when he was healthy enough to play. Although injuries limited Blomberg to 461 games and 1,493 plate appearances with the Yankees and White Sox from 1969-78, he hit .293/.360/.473 with more unintentional walks (140) than strikeouts (134).

1968 – Tim Foli, SS, Mets:

  • Statistically, Foli – taken three picks before Thurman Munson – didn’t have a great impact. The defense-first infielder was a .251/.283/.309 hitter who hit 25 homers in almost 6,600 trips to the plate as part of a half-dozen different teams from 1970-85. Nevertheless, Foli made quite a mark on the game in transactions. The Mets traded him, Mike Jorgensen and Ken Singleton (arguably a Hall of Famer) to the Expos in 1972 for outfielder Rusty Staub, who became a Mets icon. Twelve years later, Foli was part of a Yankees-Pirates deal that brought Jay Buhner to New York. Buhner didn’t last long as a Yankee, to Frank Costanza’s chagrin.

1969 – Jeff Burroughs, OF, Washington Senators:

  • We’re going so far back that Ted Williams was the Senators’ manager when they chose Burroughs, who debuted the next season. Burroughs ended up as a good major leaguer from 1970-85 with the Senators, Rangers, Braves, Mariners, A’s and Blue Jays, with whom he combined for a .261/.355/.439 line with 240 HRs and 18.3 fWAR. That said, the Senators may have been wiser to choose righty J.R. Richard, the No. 2 pick and someone who had a better career than Burroughs.
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How The 2000-09 NL Rookies Of The Year Turned Out

By Connor Byrne | May 20, 2020 at 7:33pm CDT

This is the start of a series in which we’ll examine how Rookie of the Year winners panned out from various decades. Let’s begin with the National League from 2000-09…

2000 – Rafael Furcal, SS, Braves:

  • Furcal won the award with ease that year, when he batted .295/.394/.382 with 3.3 fWAR, almost as many walks (73) as strikeouts (80), and 40 stolen bases. But was he a one-shot wonder? Nope. Furcal, whose final season came in 2014, wrapped things up as a .281/.346/.402 hitter with 113 homers, 314 steals, three All-Star bids and 33.1 fWAR. Aside from the Braves, he spent MLB time with the Dodgers, Cardinals and Marlins, winning a World Series championship with St. Louis in 2011.

2001 – Albert Pujols, 1B/3B/OF, Cardinals:

  • The birth of a legend. Pujols totaled 7.2 fWAR that year on the strength of a .329/.403/.610 line with 37 home runs, and he missed just one game in the process. Now a member of the Angels, he can be counted as one of the greatest players ever – a 10-time All-Star, a three-time NL MVP, a two-time World Series winner and a 656-home run man.

2002 – Jason Jennings, RHP, Rockies:

  • It’s tough to win any kind of award as a pitcher in hitter-friendly Colorado, but Jennings pulled it off in his first full season, in which he amassed 185 1/3 innings of 4.52 ERA pitching with 2.1 fWAR. Jennings had a couple more solid seasons, but his career didn’t last nearly as long as of those of Furcal and Pujols. From 2001-09 as a member of the Rox, Astros and Rangers, Jennings posted a 4.95 ERA with 12.2 fWAR over 1,128 1/3 frames.

2003 – Dontrelle Willis, LHP, Marlins:

  • The D-Train will always be one of the most recognizable hurlers in Marlins history. During a 2003 rookie campaign, he piled up 160 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball to help the Marlins to their most recent playoff berth. Willis had some rough outings that postseason, but he made up for those performances with 3 2/3 scoreless innings versus the Yankees in a World Series that the Marlins won in six. Before that, Willis – a very good offensive player for his position – collected three hits, including a triple, in as many at-bats against the Giants in the NLDS. Willis’ star faded after a few terrific years, but he exited following 2011 as a two-time All-Star and the owner of a 4.17 ERA across 1,221 2/3 innings as a Marlin, Tiger, Diamondback and Red. He was also part of the earth-shattering trade that sent Miguel Cabrera from Florida to Detroit in 2007.

2004 – Jason Bay, OF, Pirates:

  • Bay was a formidable offensive player that season, when he batted .282/.358/.550 with 26 homers in 472 plate appearances. That proved to be the first of many standout campaigns at the plate for Bay, a lifetime .266/.360/.481 hitter who accumulated 222 HRs with the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Mets and Mariners through 2012. Bay was a three-time All-Star whom the Mets inked to a four-year, $66MM contract before 2009, though his production nosedived after he earned that payday.

2005 – Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies:

  • Howard smacked 22 dingers in just 88 games as a rookie, and he wound up a 382-HR hitter who batted .258/.343/.515 from 2004-16 – all of which he spent with the Phillies. Howard picked up three All-Star nods, won a World Series and took home an NL MVP along the way.

2006 – Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins:

  • This was the start of an eventful career for Ramirez, who slashed .292/.353/.480 with 17 HRs and a whopping 51 steals as a rookie. Ramirez mostly continued to thrive in Miami until the team dealt him to the Dodgers in 2012. After a successful stint in LA, Ramirez signed a four-year, $88MM pact with the Red Sox before 2015. That marriage didn’t work out, though, nor did Ramirez’s short run with the Indians in 2019. It’s possible we haven’t seen the last of the 36-year-old, but if we have, he had an excellent career. Also a former first baseman, third baseman and outfielder, HanRam’s a .289/.360/.484 hitter with 271 homers, 281 steals and 41.5 fWAR.

2007 – Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers:

  • Then a third baseman and now an outfielder, Braun batted an eye-popping .324/.370/.634 with 34 homers and 15 steals as a rookie. That was the first of many highly productive seasons for Braun, a six-time All-Star and a one-tme NL MVP who has registered a career line of .298/.360/.533 with 344 HRs, 215 stolen bases and 43.7 fWAR. While he’s now 36 and on the downside of his career, Braun’s still a solid member of the Brewers’ offense.

2008 – Geovany Soto, C, Cubs:

  • Soto starred at the plate in 2008, when he batted .285/.364/.504 and smacked 23 homers to get the NL ROY and his lone All-Star nod. But Soto’s career, some of which he also spent with the Rangers, A’s, White Sox and Angels, was pretty up and down into his final season in 2017. Soto was better than most who have set foot in the majors, however, as he hit .245/.330/.435 with 108 HRs and 16.4 fWAR.

2009 – Chris Coghlan, OF, Marlins:

  • The third former Marlin on this list, Coghlan was a .321/.390/.460 hitter during his initial year, though he rarely reached those heights again. Coghlan became a utilityman and ended up playing for four other teams (the Cubs, Phillies, A’s and Blue Jays) through 2017. He batted a respectable .258/.334/.398 with 53 HRs and 47 SBs in the bigs.
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Remembering A Dodgers Heist

By Connor Byrne | May 20, 2020 at 1:05am CDT

As a versatile defender and a capable offensive player, Chris Taylor has been one of many eminently useful members of the Dodgers’ roster since 2017. But Taylor’s career did not begin in ideal fashion. A fifth-round pick of the Mariners in 2012, Taylor peaked as Baseball America’s ninth-ranked M’s prospect in 2014, and though he reached the majors for the first time that year, it took him a few years to come into his own.

Taylor showed off almost zero pop early in his big league career, evidenced by his one home run and .076 isolated power number across 318 plate appearances through 2016. Taylor had plenty of high moments in the Mariners’ minor league system, where he hit .314/.401/.455 in 1,856 PA, but could only muster a measly line of .240/296/.296 (71 wRC+) in the majors. Consequently, general manager Jerry Dipoto – who did not draft Taylor – gave him up in June 2016, sending him to the Dodgers for right-hander Zach Lee.

At the time of the Seattle-LA deal, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote, “Given Taylor’s impressive minor league numbers, it’s not out of the question that he could unlock some of that hitting prowess in the bigs.”

Mark couldn’t have been more right. Taylor saw little time with the Dodgers in his first year with the organization (just 62 PA), but he became a regular for the club the next season and has been an integral part of the perennial contenders’ roster since then. Going back to 2017, Taylor has slashed .268/.340/.468 (116 wRC+) with 50 homers and 9.6 fWAR, all while making relatively minimal salaries. Taylor’s still under affordable control through 2021, so as someone who can hit and play just about every position (he has lined up at second, third, short and all three outfield spots in LA), it should be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to keep him in the fold for at least the next couple years.

While the Dodgers struck gold on Taylor, the Mariners got nothing out of this swap. Lee entered the pro ranks as the 28th overall pick of the Dodgers in 2010, deciding to try for a baseball career instead of playing football at LSU. Signing the former quarterback cost the Dodgers a franchise-record bonus of $5.25MM, and Lee lived up to the hype for a little while. He was among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects three times (2011, ’12 and ’14), but Lee had an up-and-down minor league run as a Dodger and made just one appearance with the big club. In a 15-2 loss to the Mets in July 2015, Lee yielded seven earned runs on 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings. That was the only time he took the mound as a Dodger.

So what has become of Lee since the Mariners acquired him? Well, he had a fleeting run in the Seattle org, which lost him on waivers to San Diego in December 2016. Lee has since been with three other franchises – the Rays, Mets and Athletics (the A’s signed him to a minors pact this past offseason). He’s still just 28, and as a former high-end prospect, it may be too soon to give up on Lee. However, as the owner of a 5.41 ERA over 625 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball, it seems unlikely he’ll amount to much in the majors. Considering how Lee’s pro career has gone thus far, the Dodgers have to be thrilled with the return they got for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Fall Of The Freak

By Connor Byrne | May 19, 2020 at 10:12pm CDT

Wednesday marks the four-year anniversary of the Angels bringing in one of the most accomplished starting pitchers of the previous decade. On May 20, 2016, they signed right-hander Tim Lincecum to a guaranteed contract worth a prorated $2.5MM. Considering Lincecum’s past achievements, it was worth a shot for the pitcher-needy Angels, but the experiment didn’t work out for either side. Lincecum didn’t even finish the season with the Angels, who only won 74 games that year and who designated him for assignment in the first week of August.

Of course, Lincecum brought a superb resume to the Angels. As a member of the Giants from 2007-15, “The Freak” made four All-Star teams, won three World Series championships and took home two National League Cy Young Awards. The San Francisco version of Lincecum also piled up 1,643 2/3 regular-season innings (269 appearances, 261 starts) and posted a 3.61 ERA with 9.33 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. For the most part, Lincecum’s career started going off the rails in 2012, in which his 2.74 ERA from the prior season skyrocketed to 5.18, but there was still some magic left. Lincecum threw a 148-pitch no-hitter against the Padres in 2013, and he no-hit the Friars yet again the next season.

It was incredible that Lincecum recorded a no-hitter in back-to-back seasons, but shining moments have been few and far between since he underwent hip surgery in his last month as a Giant in September 2015. The Giants didn’t re-sign Lincecum after that, leading him to join the Angels several months later. That gamble couldn’t have gone much worse for the Angels, with whom Lincecum debuted June 18, 2016. It looked like a great move at first, as Lincecum threw six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Athletics in his Halos debut, but that proved to be his sole quality start with the team. Lincecum ultimately amassed 38 1/3 frames of 9.16 ERA pitching as an Angel. His last appearance came Aug. 5, when he yielded six earned runs over 3 1/3 innings in a loss to Seattle, before the Angels put an end to his run in their uniform.

Lincecum did get another shot, this time with the Rangers, on a guaranteed deal in 2018. That didn’t work out, though. The Rangers released Lincecum on June 5, 2018, when MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote: “He’s been ramping up after missing much of the early portion of the season, but things haven’t gone especially well in Triple-A Round Rock. Lincecum has totaled 12 2/3 innings out of the bullpen, yielding eight earned runs on 14 hits and nine walks with 10 strikeouts in that time.”

There hasn’t been any Lincecum news on MLBTR’s pages since then, and even though he hasn’t officially retired, it’s hard to believe the soon-to-be 36-year-old will return to the majors. Lincecum was definitely a treat to watch during his peak from 2008-11, though. He totaled 200-plus innings in each of those seasons, combined for a matching 2.81 ERA/FIP with 9.97 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9, and cemented himself as a Giants icon. Unfortunately, odds are that his time in MLB is done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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From Released To Elite

By Connor Byrne | May 19, 2020 at 8:33pm CDT

J.D. Martinez did not start his major league career in auspicious fashion, but as a 20th-round pick in 2009, it’s remarkable that the outfielder even made his way to the bigs. Houston took Martinez in the draft, and though he was highly productive in the organization’s system through 2011, he was unable to transfer that success to the bigs from the get-go. Martinez amassed 975 plate appearances as an Astro from 2011-13, but he hit a subpar .251/.300/.387 with 24 home runs during that time. Houston gave up on Martinez after that.

On March 22, 2014, the Astros said goodbye to Martinez, releasing him a half-decade after drafting him. However, Martinez has been on a rampage since then. Thanks to the help of hitting coaches Craig Wallenbrock and Robert Van Scoyoc, Martinez has turned into one of the best offensive players in baseball over the past several years.

The Tigers signed Martinez to a minor league contract in March 2014, and it proved to be a brilliant move for the club. Martinez became a star that year, in which he posted a line of .300/.361/.551 (145 wRC+) in 1,886 plate appearances. But Detroit, not expecting to be able to sign the soon-to-be free agent before 2018, traded him to Arizona in July 2017 in a deal that netted them infield prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

Unfortunately for Detroit, no one from the Lugo-Alcantara-King trio has given the team any value at the major league level thus far, and nobody from the that group is among MLB.com’s top 30 prospects for the Tigers right now. The D-backs probably don’t have any regrets, then, even though Martinez didn’t last long in their uniform. Over 257 PA in the desert, Martinez batted an incredible .302/.366/.741 (170 wRC+) with 29 homers, helping lead Arizona to a wild-card berth. The Diamondbacks got past that round against the Rockies, but they couldn’t overcome the Dodgers in the NLDS. That proved to be the end of the line for Martinez as part of the club.

After a drawn-out trip to free agency in the ensuing winter, the Red Sox signed Martinez to a five-year, $110MM guarantee in late February of 2018. There’s a narrative that players decline once they get a large payday, but that’s not the case for Martinez. Since he signed with Boston, Martinez has gone to a pair of All-Star Games, helped the Red Sox to a World Series championship (2018) and batted .317/.392/.593 (154 wRC+) with 79 homers in 1,306 PA. It’s obvious at this point that Martinez, now 32 years old, is among the premier hitters in baseball. Not bad for someone whom a team once gave up on in exchange for nothing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Oakland’s Meager Return For A Superstar

By Connor Byrne | May 19, 2020 at 1:00am CDT

One of the highest-profile trades of the previous decade saw the Athletics send third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for a four-player package consisting of infielders Brett Lawrie and Franklin Barreto, right-hander Kendall Graveman and lefty Sean Nolin in November 2014. The return at the time seemed underwhelming for an Oakland team that was then coming off its third consecutive playoff berth. Donaldson was highly instrumental in the team’s success in two of those last three seasons – he combined for 13.0 fWAR from 2013-14 – and he wasn’t due to reach free agency until after 2017. Even a low-budget club like the A’s should have been able to keep Donaldson in the fold for at least a little while longer, but they decided against it, to their detriment.

Donaldson, whom many now know as the “Bringer of Rain,” saw his star continue to rise in Toronto. He played for the Jays from 2015-18, during which he slashed .281/.383/.548 (150 wRC+) with 118 home runs and 22.2 fWAR. There were few better major leaguers during that stretch than Donaldson, who took home the AL MVP in 2015 – the first of two straight seasons in which Toronto went to the ALCS. Meanwhile, the A’s won fewer than 70 games in those two years and endured another sub-.500 campaign in 2017 before finally returning to relevance the next season. Oakland has since found its answer at third in the great Matt Chapman.

Despite Chapman’s emergence, has the Donaldson trade been worth it from the A’s standpoint? It doesn’t look like it.

The players Oakland got for Donaldson have combined for 3.8 fWAR in their uniform. Lawrie, once a seemingly can’t-miss prospect, spent one underwhelming season as an Athletic before they traded him to the White Sox in December 2015. Barreto was also considered a superb prospect in his younger days, but the now-24-year-old has done nothing in the majors so far. Graveman was useful with the A’s from 2015-18, during which he turned in 441 1/3 innings of 4.38 ERA ball, but was never more than a back-end starter with the team. He’s now a member of the division-rival Mariners. And Nolin, who only pitched for Oakland during a 2015 season in which he registered a 5.29 ERA over 29 innings, is now with the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball.

As of now, it seems fair to call the Donaldson return an enormous disappointment for the Billy Beane-led A’s, who typically know what they’re doing. If there’s one potential silver lining, though, it’s J.B. Wendelken. The righty reliever joined the A’s in a trade with the White Sox for Lawrie in December 2015, and has since turned into a solid reliever. Going back to 2018, Wendelken has logged a 2.55 ERA/3.01 FIP with 8.76 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9 in 49 1/3 innings. Among 523 pitchers whom hitters amassed at least 100 plate appearances against last year, he ranked sixth in expected weighted on-base average (.234), placing him a couple points behind the excellent Josh Hader.

Wendelken hasn’t racked up a large amount of major league experience yet, but if the A’s are going to get anything from deciding to deal Donaldson, he may be their best hope. For the most part, barring a eureka moment for Barreto, the return that Oakland originally received is a lost cause. Donaldson’s still humming along, though. He was good enough as a Blue Jay and then an Indian for the Braves to sign him to a $23MM guarantee going into 2019, and he was so effective in Atlanta last season that Minnesota gave him a four-year, $92MM guarantee over the winter.

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The 1970s: Ten First Overall Picks, One Hall Of Famer

By Connor Byrne | May 18, 2020 at 9:45pm CDT

We have recently been revisiting the No. 1 overall picks from each decade. Having already taken a look at 2010-19, 2000-09, the 1990s and the 1980s, let’s turn our attention to the ’70s. As you’ll see below, when it comes to top overall selections, it was a disappointing decade…

1970 – Mike Ivie, C, Padres:

  • There were only two eventual All-Stars from the opening round of the ’70 draft, and Ivie wasn’t one of them (those honors went to Darrell Porter and Bucky Dent). But that’s not to say Ivie didn’t have his moments. He was a 27-home run hitter with the Giants in 1979, and ended up slashing a decent .269/.324/.421 (108 wRC+) with 81 homers and 7.5 fWAR in a combined 2,962 plate appearances with the Pads, Giants, Astros and Tigers from 1971-83. While Ivie was drafted as a catcher, he saw almost no action there in the bigs, instead getting the majority of his reps at first base.

1971 – Danny Goodwin, C, White Sox:

  • George Brett (29th) and Mike Schmidt (30th) are among the luminaries from this draft class. But the White Sox went with Goodwin, whom they failed to sign because he chose to play college baseball instead. They weren’t the last team to make the mistake of taking him at No. 1. More on that later.

1972 – Dave Roberts, 3B, Padres:

  • No, not the current Dodgers manager, who also happens to be an ex-Padres player and skipper. Aside from pitcher, the Dave Roberts who went No. 1 played every position on the diamond during his career from 1972-82, but he never provided the Padres, Rangers, Astros or Phillies much value as a hitter. Roberts batted .239/.286/.357 (81 wRC+) with 0.6 fWAR in 2,189 trips to the plate.

1973 – David Clyde, LHP, Rangers:

  • Clyde garnered tons of hype coming out of high school, but injuries played a role in what became a letdown of an MLB career. He appeared with the Rangers in five different seasons and only managed a 4.63 ERA with 4.93 K/9 against 3.89 BB/9 over 416 1/3 innings. Clyde went two picks before Robin Yount and three ahead of Dave Winfield. Yount and Winfield are now in the Hall of Fame.

1974 – Bill Almon, SS, Padres:

  • The Padres had three of the first five No. 1 overall picks of the ’70s, but none of them turned out particularly well. Almon had a long career – he played with San Diego, the White Sox, Oakland, Pittsburgh, the Mets, Philadelphia and Montreal from 1974-88 – but hit a meek .254/.305/.343 (82 wRC+) with 2.5 fWAR in 3,659 PA. The Padres chose Almon four picks before the Braves hit a home run (398 of them, to be exact) with Dale Murphy at No. 5.

1975 – Danny Goodwin, C, Angels:

  • You have to be a pretty good prospect to go No. 1 twice in a half-decade, but Goodwin never made a mark in the majors. The former catcher spent just about all of his time in the field as a first baseman and hit .236/.301/.373 (84 wRC+) with minus-1.2 fWAR across 707 PA among the Angels, Twins and Athletics. If it’s any consolation for the Angels, not one of that year’s other 23 first-rounders ever made an All-Star team.

1976 – Floyd Bannister, LHP, Astros:

  • Bannister enjoyed a nice career with the Astros, Mariners, White Sox, Royals, Angels and Rangers from 1977-92, during which he combined for a 4.06 ERA and 30.8 fWAR in 2,388 innings. He was a one-time All-Star during that run; notably, he’s the father of Brian Bannister, who also pitched in the majors. Brian’s now the director of pitching for the Giants.

1977 – Harold Baines, OF, White Sox:

  • Baines is the lone Hall of Famer in this group, though there has been plenty of debate over whether he should actually be in Cooperstown. Regardless, you can’t deny Baines put up a far better career than most who have set foot on an MLB diamond. As a member of several teams (mostly the White Sox) from 1980-2001, Baines batted .289/.356/.465 (119 wRC+) with 389 homers and 38.4 fWAR in just under 11,100 PA.

1978 – Bob Horner, 3B/1B, Braves:

  • Horner had an odd career, but it was a pretty solid one. After posting a line of .278/.339/.508 (127 wRC+), hitting 215 homers and recording 19.4 fWAR in Atlanta from 1978-86, he left to play in Japan in ’87. Horner was tremendous that year with the Yakult Swallows, but he returned stateside the next season to join the Cardinals. Horner struggled then, though, and it proved to be his last season. Years later, he was a key figure in a fight against MLB owners’ collusion.

1979 – Al Chambers, OF, Mariners:

  • The last No. 1 selection of the decade didn’t live up to the pick at all. Chambers totaled a meager 141 PA in the majors, all with the Mariners from 1983-85, and hit .208/.326/.292 (77 wRC+) with two HRs and minus-0.5 fWAR.
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Universal DH Could Give Former MVP Contender Another Chance

By Connor Byrne | May 18, 2020 at 7:23pm CDT

If a 2020 major league season does occur, there’s a good chance that the designated hitter will come to the National League. With that in mind, MLBTR has been taking a look at how the rule could affect the NL’s 15 teams. We’ve already focused on the Giants, Brewers, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Reds, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. We’ll now turn our attention to the Marlins, who are not expected to push for a playoff spot this year (you never know in a shortened season, though) but do have at least one well-known player who could benefit from the NL barring pitchers from hitting.

While it seems like ancient history now, outfielder Matt Kemp was once among the most valuable players in baseball. Now 35 years old, Kemp had several productive years with the Dodgers from 2006-14, during which he combined for a .292/.349/.495 line (128 wRC+) with 182 home runs, 170 stolen bases and 25.1 fWAR in 4,496 plate appearances. Kemp even nearly won an MVP in that time, finishing second to the Brewers’ Ryan Braun in 2011.

Even at the height of his powers as a hitter, questions abounded in regards to Kemp’s defense, and they haven’t subsided. Kemp has thus far accounted for an awful minus-133 Defensive Runs Saved with a minus-102.7 Ultimate Zone Rating during his career. Worsening matters, Kemp’s offensive numbers began deteriorating in 2014, the last year during his first Dodgers stint, and have mostly continued to do so since they traded him to the Padres in December 2014.

Since he first donned a San Diego uniform, Kemp has batted .272/.314/.467 (good for a fairly mediocre 107 wRC+) in 2,355 trips to the plate with the Padres and a couple other teams. Last season was especially horrible for Kemp, who totaled a paltry 62 PA with the Reds and hit .200/.210/.283 (20 wRC+). The seven-time 20-home run man only managed one HR in Cincinnati, which released him in early May, and he was unable to make his way to the Mets after they inked him to a minor league contract toward the end of May. They wound up releasing Kemp in July after a short and dismal run with their Triple-A affiliate.

In fairness to Kemp, a broken rib played some role in his nightmarish 2019. It’s also worth noting he’s only two seasons removed from a quality offensive performance in 2018, when he slashed .290/.338/.481 (122 wRC+) with 21 homers in his one-year return to the Dodgers en route to his third All-Star bid. Kemp couldn’t find a guaranteed contract this past offseason after last year’s fiasco, though, leading the non-contending Marlins to take a chance on him on a minors pact.

Considering Kemp’s falling offense and his subpar defense, he looked like a long shot to make the Miami roster when the club added him. However, between a universal DH and expanded rosters, Kemp may well receive a legitimate opportunity to revive his career this year. But there are other members of the Marlins – Matt Joyce, Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar are clear examples – who could rack up DH at-bats if Kemp’s not up to the task.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Central Notes: Twins, Bryant, Mize, Reds

By Connor Byrne | May 16, 2020 at 12:49am CDT

Let’s check in on a few teams from the game’s Central divisions…

  • The Twins signed injured left-hander Rich Hill in December with the expectation he’d miss a large part of the season. That was before the coronavirus pandemic ran amok, though, and now the Twins might get a full season (if there is one) out of Hill. The 40-year-old, who’s still recovering from the primary revision surgery he underwent in November , told Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, “(I’ve) been able to make the most out of the situation so I’m right where I should be as far as rehab progression-wise, so if we do have a season, I should be ready to go when we kick off something of a spring training.” That means the Twins could get an entire season out of a hurler who has been one of the most effective starters in the majors on a per-inning basis since his out-of-nowhere breakout in 2015. Dating back to then, Hill has combined for a 2.91 ERA with 10.67 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 466 1/3 frames as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics and Dodgers.
  • Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2021 season. In theory, a shortened or canceled 2020 campaign could have a negative effect on his market if he does reach free agency, but agent Scott Boras doesn’t expect it to damage Bryant or any of the other star players who could be available then. “For the players who are the great players — because there’s always only a few great players — I don’t think it’s going to have anywhere near the impact,” Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago, “because those great players are somebody you would sign for 10 years, and you can defer the cost. You just backload the contracts. You can do things with long-term contracts; you could wait for better times but still get the player for today.”
  • Righty Casey Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, may be the best prospect in the Detroit organization. But with a minor league campaign unlikely to happen, Mize could miss out on further professional seasoning this year. So what’s the solution? Well, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com makes a case that the Tigers should just put him in their rotation this season. Doing so would burn a year of service time, and it’s unlikely Mize would help make the Tigers a playoff-caliber team even in a shortened season, but there’s no denying he is one of the most talented players in the organization. Mize spent the majority of last year in Double-A, where he pitched to a 3.20 ERA with 8.69 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings.
  • The Reds will start temporarily furloughing employees – less than 25 percent of them – on June 1, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Those individuals will continue to receive benefits while laid off, though.
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The Last 10 First Overall Picks

By Connor Byrne | May 15, 2020 at 7:13pm CDT

We previously revisited the No. 1 overall picks from the 1980s, the 1990s and 2000-09. Let’s now take a look at the prior decade…

2010 – Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals:

  • This was an easy pick for the Nationals, who grabbed one of the most hyped prospects ever, and Harper hasn’t disappointed. Now 27 years old, Harper’s a six-time All-Star with an NL MVP and a Rookie of the Year Award to his name, though he’s no longer a National. Harper owns the largest overall free-agent contract ever – the 13-year, $330MM accord he signed with the division-rival Phillies before 2019. Between the two teams, Harper has slashed .276/.385/.512 (138 wRC+) with 219 home runs and 35.1 fWAR.

2011 – Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates:

  • Speaking of record contracts, Cole scored a nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees this past winter, making him the highest-paid pitcher ever. The flamethrower got there by combining for a 3.22 ERA in 1,195 innings between Pittsburgh and Houston from 2013-19. The low-budget Pirates, unable to retain Cole for the long haul, sent him to the Astros prior to the 2018 campaign for what hasn’t been a great return thus far. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely they regret taking Cole No. 1 nine years ago.

2012 – Carlos Correa, SS, Astros:

  • This is yet another smash success from the previous decade’s drafts. While injuries have troubled Correa of late, he’s one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball when he takes the field, having batted .277/.356/.489 (129 wRC+) with 102 homers and 18.5 fWAR over 2,362 plate appearances.

2013 – Mark Appel, SP, Astros:

  • Unlike the Correa pick, this selection didn’t work out for the Astros. Appel, who still hasn’t pitched in the majors, went one pick before Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. But the Astros did get value from Appel when they dealt him and others to the Phillies in 2015 for reliever Ken Giles, who had his moments with the club from 2016-18. Appel, meanwhile, stepped away from baseball in February 2018. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll pitch professionally again.

2014 – Brady Aiken, SP, Astros:

  • Three straight No. 1 picks for the Astros. They’ve come a long way since then, but Aiken didn’t play a role in their recent success. The team failed to sign Aiken, but its inability to do so turned into a 2015 compensatory pick (No. 2) that it used on Alex Bregman. Safe to say that worked out well. Aiken re-entered the draft and went 17th to the Indians in ’15, but he hasn’t played in the majors yet, and like Appel, he isn’t sure if he ever will.

2015 – Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks:

  • Swanson, who came off the board one pick before Bregman (oops), never actually played for the Diamondbacks. They traded him, outfielder Ender Inciarte and righty Aaron Blair to Atlanta in a 2015 deal that brought Shelby Miller to Arizona (MLBTR’s George Miller recently revisited that swap). Swanson hasn’t blossomed into a star at the MLB level, though, as the owner of a .245/.318/.385 line (81 wRC+) with 3.9 fWAR in 1,774 trips to the plate.

The rest:

  • For the most part, it’s too soon to assess these players. Outfielder Mickey Moniak went No. 1 to the Phillies in 2016, but he hasn’t gotten past the Double-A level yet. If the Phillies had a do-over, they’d probably take Pete Alonso (64), Bo Bichette (66) or Shane Bieber (122), to name a few who have turned into major league standouts from that draft class. A year later, shortstop Royce Lewis went to the Twins at No. 1. Righty Casey Mize became a Tiger with the top pick in 2018, and catcher Adley Rutschman joined the Orioles with the first selection last summer. Lewis, Mize and Rutschman are still regarded as premium prospects. We’ll see how they fare if and when they appear at the sport’s highest level.
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