West Notes & Rumors: Dodgers, Puig, Kemp, Rox, Rangers
Yasiel Puig has been popular in trade rumors dating back to 2016, but the Dodgers have nonetheless retained the outfielder to this point. However, it’s possible that will change this offseason – perhaps as early as the upcoming week’s Winter Meetings. The Dodgers limited Puig’s playing time against left-handed pitchers in 2018, which has left him “disgruntled,” “distrustful of management” and “open” to playing for another team, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times writes. While the right-handed Puig has offered above-average production versus lefties over his career, he has struggled against them since 2017, leading to diminished at-bats last season. Still, it’s not certain the Dodgers will trade the 28-year-old Puig, Hernandez suggests, adding that he likely wouldn’t bring much back in a deal. And the Dodgers aren’t interested in dumping Puig’s projected $11.3MM salary for the sake of doing it, per Hernandez. Rather, it seems they’d want a legitimate return for Puig’s last year of team control. Consequently, despite Puig’s current dissatisfaction with the Dodgers, he could end up remaining in their uniform in 2019.
- More on the Dodgers, who will attempt to trade outfielder Matt Kemp this winter, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports. The Dodgers reunited with Kemp last December in an unorthodox, luxury tax-based trade with the Braves, and the 34-year-old went on to enjoy a productive season in Los Angeles. Kemp faded during the second half of 2018, however, and is due $21.5MM in 2019 – the last year of his deal. The former MVP candidate will be extremely difficult for LA to move, then, though perhaps it could swap him for another team’s unwanted contract.
- With the Rockies looking to upgrade an offense that was woeful in 2018, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post focuses on first base and the outfield as areas they could attempt to strengthen. In an ideal world, the Rockies would add a power-hitting first basemen, enabling them to shift Ian Desmond to the outfield, Saunders notes. As for A.J. Pollock, the best free-agent center fielder available, his current asking price is likely out of the Rockies’ range, according to Saunders.
- Given that the rebuilding Rangers don’t figure to contend in the next couple years, they should consider trading the likes of Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara this offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News opines. Although the 25-year-old Profar finally began living up to his top prospect billing in 2018, and is only projected to earn $3.4MM in 2019, the infielder is not under control past 2020. Mazara, 23, will be similarly affordable next season ($3.7MM), the outfielder’s first of three potential arbitration years, but hasn’t yet delivered on the hype he garnered as a prospect.
4 To 5 Teams Reportedly Interested In Trevor Cahill
Fresh off one of his most effective seasons as a starter, free-agent right-hander Trevor Cahill has drawn interest from “four to five” clubs this winter, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred. Cahill now has “multiyear opportunities,” Heyman adds on Twitter.
It took Cahill until late March to sign last offseason, when he reunited with his first major league team, the Athletics, for a guaranteed $1.5MM. That proved to be a bargain for Oakland, which saw Cahill serve as an important part of a patchwork rotation and help the club to a wild-card berth. Cahill finished first among A’s starters in fWAR (2.0), second in starts (20) and third in innings (110), and managed a quality 3.76 ERA/3.54 FIP with 8.18 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, a 53.4 percent groundball rate and a personal-best 11.7 percent swinging-strike mark. He also dealt with multiple injuries along the way, though, which has often been the case throughout his career.
Cahill was a prolific innings eater with the A’s and Diamondbacks from 2009-12, a span in which he ranked 29th in the majors in frames (925 2/3) and twice exceeded the 200 barrier. Since then, however, Cahill has only gone beyond the 145-inning plateau once – when he amassed 146 2/3 with Arizona in 2013 – thanks to both injuries and time spent as a reliever. But Cahill, who’s also a former Brave, Cub, Royal and Padre, has functioned primarily as a starter since 2017 and turned in decent results when healthy. With the Padres and Royals two years ago, he combined for 14 starts and recorded a 4.38 ERA/4.30 FIP with 9.75 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, leading Oakland to take a low-cost flier on him an offseason ago.
Now, thanks to his reemergence as a viable starter over the past couple years, it appears Cahill’s poised to reel in a far more lucrative contract than he received nine months ago. MLBTR predicts Cahill will land a two-year, $22MM pact as he gears up for his age-31 season.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Machado, Mets, Braves, Rays
This week in baseball blogs…
- Chin Music Baseball evaluates possible landing spots for Manny Machado.
- Bronx To Bushville, Mets Critic and Mets Daddy react to the team’s shocking trade with the Mariners.
- Outfield Fly Rule analyzes the Braves’ Josh Donaldson signing.
- The Dugout Online examines the state of the Rays.
- Fish Stripes revisits the failed transactions the Marlins made under former owner Jeffrey Loria.
- The Birdfeed researches the percentage of Rule 5 picks who are returned to their previous team.
- The Runner Sports looks at the possibility of the Yankees giving up on Gary Sanchez in favor of J.T. Realmuto.
- Reviewing The Brew wants Milwaukee to steer clear of Yasmani Grandal.
- Sox On 35th features a piece written by White Sox pitching prospect Tyler Johnson.
- Know Hitter runs down effective means of spending for rebuilding teams.
- SportsRadio 94 WIP asks if the Phillies’ front office is on the same page with owner John Middleton.
- Jays From the Couch sees 2019 as a pivotal year for Aaron Sanchez.
- Tomahawk Take (links: 1, 2) weighs the pros and cons of a potential Madison Bumgarner acquisition for the Braves.
- Rising Apple searches for trade destinations for Noah Syndergaard.
- The Fro Zone lists 10 free agents to avoid.
- The 3rd Man In names five players who should be traded this offseason.
- District On Deck identifies seven players the Nationals could trade.
- WanderRays profiles Tampa Bay’s top prospect, the aptly named Wander Franco.
- Pinstriped Prospects spotlights young Yankees outfielder Estevan Florial.
- Call to the Pen (links: 1, 2) highlights under-the-radar free agents who could pay dividends, and focuses on the Phillies’ bullpen.
- Prospect Universe expects next year’s rookie class to impress.
- Statsswipe wonders what the Brewers will get from Jimmy Nelson in 2019.
- East Village Times isn’t sure if the Padres will keep both Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia
- Rox Pile examines Todd Helton‘s Hall of Fame case.
- Baseball Rabbi (podcast) reacts to the Yankees’ acquisition of James Paxton, talks about free agent Mike Moustakas, and more.
- Around the Bases with Julian Bussells (podcast) discusses the offseason thus far and talks with Tim Dillard
- Everything Bluebirds isn’t thrilled that the Blue Jays let Harold Ramirez get away.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) shares a piece the Astros’ mental skills coordinator, Dr. Jesse Michel, and notes that the Twins may play next season without a local product
Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com
AL Notes: M’s, Seager, Yanks, Sanchez, Tribe, Bauer
The latest from the American League…
- If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
- Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
- Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is another offseason trade candidate, but he explained to MLB Network this week that it wouldn’t make sense for the Tribe to deal him now. “There’s a lot of reasons I think that [the Indians should not trade me],” Bauer said (via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com). “Ultimately, I think the surplus value on me this year is just way too high. Even with an arbitration raise, you’re probably talking about $15 to $20 million of surplus value.” Bauer added that it would be more logical for the Indians to move him a year from now, when his price will rise and he’ll be just one year from reaching free agency. The 27-year-old provided oodles of surplus value to the Indians in 2018, when he logged an amazing 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings for a little more than $6.5MM. He’s projected to earn another reasonable salary – $11.6MM – in 2019.
NL East Notes: Nats, Rendon, Suzuki, Mets, Ramos
Nationals superstar Anthony Rendon is slated to enter a contract year in 2019, but he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post and other reporters Sunday that he’s “up for” signing an extension. The third baseman revealed that he and the Nats have been discussing an extension for a year, adding that while he hopes to remain in Washington, he’d be content to enter next season without a new contract. The 28-year-old Rendon continued to make a case for a mega-deal in 2018, as he finished top 10 in both position player fWAR (eighth) and wRC+ (10th).
Here’s more from Washington and one of its division rivals:
- The Mets are hesitant to go after ex-Nat Wilson Ramos, one of the top two free-agent catchers available, because of concerns over his defense and injury issues, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. New York’s “prioritizing” behind-the-plate defense and putting an extra emphasis on pitch framing, Puma adds. Baseball Prospectus has typically awarded Ramos positive pitch-framing and defense marks, though going by its Fielding Runs Above Average metric, he has been a scratch or minus defender for three straight seasons. Ramos has also torn his right ACL twice, including in 2016, which limited him to 64 games in 2017 as he worked his way back. However, Ramos did catch 96 games last season – 92 more than oft-injured Mets backstop Travis d’Arnaud, whom they tendered a contract Friday. Of course, Ramos is sure to require a pricey multiyear commitment, whereas d’Arnaud’s essentially set to play under a one-year deal worth a projected $3.7M.
- Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) applauds Washington’s acquisition of catcher Yan Gomes from Cleveland, writing that the Nationals made a sizable improvement behind the plate without surrendering much. Having Gomes instead of 2018 starter Matt Wieters as their primary catcher could mean at least a four-win upgrade next year, Law posits. Law goes on to assess outfielder Daniel Johnson and right-hander Jefry Rodriguez – whom the Indians received for Gomes – in detail, noting that the former just endured a disappointing, injury-shortened season and the latter may only max out as a righty specialist in the majors. But Law explains that there’s hope for Indians catcher Eric Haase, who may succeed Gomes as their main backstop.
- Between Gomes and free-agent signing Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have made a pair of noteworthy additions at catcher in the past couple weeks. Although, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post notes, it’s not yet clear how the Nats will divvy up playing time between the two next season. GM Mike Rizzo suggested Saturday that he’d leave it up to manager Dave Martinez, who declared that “they’re both going to split time.” Rizzo added that Suzuki could see action at first base, where he has never appeared in a major league game. Regardless, Suzuki’s “totally on board” with the Gomes pickup, per Rizzo.
Blue Jays Reportedly Interested In Dallas Keuchel
11:24am: Toronto’s likely not a real threat to sign Keuchel, suggests Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, who expects the club to shop for lower-tier free-agent starters.
9:40am: As the most accomplished starting pitcher available in free agency, left-hander Dallas Keuchel has unsurprisingly drawn plenty of attention this offseason. Count the Blue Jays among the teams with interest in him, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports.
Starting pitching is a concern for the Blue Jays, whose rotation ranked an atrocious 28th in ERA and an unimpressive 21st in fWAR in 2018. That included a solid 114 innings from lefty J.A. Happ, whom the Blue Jays traded over the summer and now have interest in bringing back in free agency.
As things stand, the most established starters remaining in Toronto are Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Sam Gaviglio and Ryan Borucki – a quartet that, with the exception of Borucki, struggled to prevent runs last season. Moreover, Stroman and Sanchez, despite the immense promise they’ve shown at times, have come up in trade speculation this offseason. Even if the Jays do keep them heading into next year, their control over the pair is dwindling, as both Stroman and Sanchez are only arbitration eligible through 2020.
While the Jays’ No. 1 and 2 starters are controllable for just two more seasons, it may take a contract at least twice that long to reel in the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel. The career-long Astro is in line for a four-year, $82MM deal, MLBTR predicts. Whether the Jays would be well-served by making such a commitment is debatable. Toronto may have trouble pushing for a playoff spot during the very early portion of Keuchel’s deal, after all, as general manager Ross Atkins has suggested the team’s realistically hoping to return to contention in 2020 or ’21. In the meantime, the club should continue to have its hands full in a division led by the world champion Red Sox, the title-contending Yankees and the up-and-coming Rays.
Keuchel’s age, his status as a qualifying offer recipient and the Jays’ current state seem to make the two an imperfect match, though they may earnestly pursue the former AL Cy Young Award winner if they believe he’ll avoid a sharp decline. Keuchel’s run prevention, strikeout, groundball and swing-and-miss numbers dipped last year in comparison to his best seasons, but he remained a formidable producer. Further, Keuchel has never been one to rely on velocity or post gaudy strikeout numbers, and has instead leaned on his exceptional ability to induce weak contact. Keuchel’s big-talking agent, Scott Boras, plans to take advantage of that, having announced that he’s selling his client as the “soft-contact genius of his era.”
A.J. Pollock Reportedly Seeking Deal In $80MM Neighborhood
In each of the previous two offseasons, the top-ranked free-agent center fielder available inked a deal worth at least $80MM. The Cardinals made a five-year, $82.5MM commitment to Dexter Fowler heading into 2017, and the Brewers followed suit by awarding Lorenzo Cain a five-year, $80MM guarantee last offseason. If A.J. Pollock has his way, he’ll rake in a similar payday this winter. The longtime Diamondback is seeking a contract in the vicinity of the Fowler and Cain pacts, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
It’s no surprise that Pollock is aiming high early in free agency, especially considering the lack of center field alternatives available on either the open or trade market. Nevertheless, Pollock’s asking price may be rather ambitious, with MLBTR predicting he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee and FanGraphs projecting a three-year, $54MM deal.
It’s true that Pollock has generally been a good to excellent performer throughout his career, which began in earnest in 2013. However, injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Pollock, who missed 87 games in 2014, 150 in 2016, 50 in 2017 and 49 last season. Further, youth isn’t necessarily on Pollock’s side (he’ll turn 31 on Dec. 6), and because he rejected a qualifying offer from Arizona, signing him would cost a team more than just a truckload of cash. For their part, the Diamondbacks are likely rooting for Pollock to achieve his big-money goal if he doesn’t re-sign with them. Should Pollock go elsewhere for upward of $50MM, it would greatly increase the compensation the D-backs would receive.
To this point, only the Astros have been linked to Pollock on MLBTR’s pages since free agency opened, though Nightengale writes that he’s drawing “plenty of interest.” Aside from the Astros, potential fits could include the Giants, White Sox, Cubs, Mets, Indians and Phillies, among others.
The team that signs Pollock will be landing a valuable player who has totaled between 2.3 fWAR and 6.8 fWAR in five seasons, despite his injury woes. The right-handed hitter posted 2.5 fWAR in 460 plate appearances last season, when he slashed .257/.316/.484 (110 wRC+) with a career-high 21 home runs, a personal-best .228 ISO and 13 stolen bases on 15 tries. Those are impressive numbers, but they pale in comparison to Pollock’s offensive production from his 2014-15 heyday, and he’s now coming off a season in which he registered career-worst chase, swinging-strike, strikeout and contact rates. Meanwhile, Pollock did earn mostly solid marks in center field – which has been the case throughout his time in the majors – with six Defensive Runs Saved, six Outs Above Average and a minus-0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating.
On a per-PA basis, Pollock’s career has been better than Fowler’s when he got to the market and similar to Cain’s when he hit free agency. It’s easy to see why Pollock is likely to collect an appreciable raise in the coming weeks, then. Still, Pollock’s longstanding injury issues figure to prevent him from approaching the contracts Fowler and Cain received.
AL East News & Rumors: BoSox, Robertson, Yanks, Miller, Rays, O’s
It may take a three-year commitment to sign free-agent reliever David Robertson this offseason, but “the Red Sox are in for less,” a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post. Considering Robertson’s a Rhode Island resident who’d prefer to pitch in the Northeast, where he has spent most of his career, he looks like a logical fit for a Boston team which could lose Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly in free agency. However, if the Red Sox are only willing to hand Robertson a one- or two-year contract, a union between them and the longtime Yankee may not be in the cards.
Here’s more from the American League East:
- With both Robertson and Zach Britton on the open market, the Yankees have one of their ex-relievers, free-agent left-hander Andrew Miller, on their “radar,” per King. In 2014, the last time Miller was a free agent, he signed a four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees. That proved to be a shrewd investment for the Yanks, who received brilliant production from Miller before trading him to Cleveland in a 2016 swap in which New York acquired Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (the latter was just dealt to Seattle for high-end starter James Paxton). Miller stood out for most of his time with the Indians, including during their run to a World Series berth in 2016, but the 33-year-old is now fresh off an injury-shortened season in which his numbers fell off.
- The Athletics are making headway toward a new ballpark in their city, but the same isn’t true for the Rays, as Charlie Frago and Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Bay Times detail. While the Rays and officials in Hillsborough County, Fla., had been hoping to debut an $892MM ballpark in the Ybor City neighborhood of Tampa Bay in 2023, an agreement isn’t imminent as the Dec. 31 deadline looms, Frago and O’Donnell report. Consequently, the Rays may not move to a new stadium until 2024 or later. They’ve called the much-derided Tropicana Field home since they began play in 1998.
- It appears Brady Anderson, a prominent member of the Orioles’ previous front office, will stay in the fold under rookie general manager Mike Elias, according to Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription required). Not only that, but it seems Anderson – currently Baltimore’s vice president of baseball operations – will continue to serve in a major role, Connolly relays. Elias spoke highly of Anderson in an interview with Buster Olney of ESPN this week, saying (via Connolly): “He’s very smart, he’s very capable, and, most of all, he has a very deep love for this franchise. So, I’m looking forward to working with him.”
Mets, Indians Have Discussed Corey Kluber
Having already swung one blockbuster trade this offseason, the Mets may have further headline-grabbing deals in mind. It appears they have interest in Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who reports that the two teams have discussed the right-hander.
The Mets are one of several teams reportedly eyeing Kluber, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner whose name has been prominent in rumors for a month. The fact that Kluber’s on the Mets’ radar is especially fascinating given that the future of one of their aces, righty Noah Syndergaard, is up in the air.
While New York may be attempting to build a dominant rotation led by Jacob deGrom, Kluber and Syndergaard, Feinsand notes it’s possible they could end up dealing Syndergaard and then acquiring Kluber in a separate trade. Swapping out Syndergaard for Kluber would seemingly be a near-term upgrade, though the latter is far older and pricier than the former. The 26-year-old Syndergaard has three arbitration-eligible campaigns remaining and will only make a projected $5.9MM next season, while the soon-to-be 33-year-old Kluber will earn $17MM in 2019 – also his third-last year of control.
For Cleveland, trading Kluber would be an obvious blow to its pitching staff, though a deal could come to fruition if it enables the team to pick up immediate help and cut payroll. If the Indians would indeed want controllable, young major leaguers for Kluber, then Syndergaard, outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, and second baseman Jeff McNeil look like the most logical fits from the Mets’ roster. All four are under control through at least 2021 and would seemingly help keep a Kluber-less Indians team strong in 2019.
Aside from that quartet, it doesn’t appear the rest of the Mets’ roster or their prospect pool is teeming with ideal pieces to pry Kluber out of Cleveland. Baseball America ranked the Mets’ farm an uninspiring 19th in the game even before they agreed to trade a pair of their best prospects, outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn, to Seattle in a package for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Mets do still have two of the outlet’s top-1oo prospects, however, in shortstop Andres Gimenez (No. 53) and first baseman Peter Alonso (No. 72).
While it’s unknown how serious the Mets are about Kluber, it’s fair to say they’re positioning themselves as one of this offseason’s most interesting teams to watch. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen has been a polarizing presence in his first few weeks as an executive, but it’s clear he’s willing to make bold moves in an effort to improve a New York club coming off back-to-back sub-.500 seasons.
NL East Rumors: Fish, Realmuto, Braves, Keuchel, Phils, M’s
A few National League East-themed rumblings…
- The Braves reunited with catcher Brian McCann in free agency Wednesday, giving them a decent behind-the-plate tandem with him and Tyler Flowers. Atlanta’s not necessarily out of the sweepstakes for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, though, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week (subscription link). It appears Miami would need to significantly lower its asking price in order for Realmuto to join the NL East rival Braves, however. Per Rosenthal, the Marlins requested second baseman Ozzie Albies and more from the Braves in the teams’ discussions. Unsurprisingly, the Braves haven’t been willing to part with the 21-year-old Albies, who turned in a 3.8-fWAR rookie campaign in 2018 and is under wraps for the foreseeable future, for two seasons of control over Realmuto, 27.
- Sticking with the Braves, free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel is “high on their wish list,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Keuchel rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in favor of reaching the open market, but because the Braves received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the competitive balance tax in 2018, they’d only lose their third-highest draft pick in signing him. While Keuchel does figure to ink one of the richest contracts in this winter’s free-agent class, the Braves may have the money to reel him in, even after committing a combined $25MM to McCann and Josh Donaldson this week. Atlanta has plenty of young starting pitching on hand, but it’s arguably in need of a quality veteran starter like the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel – especially with integral 2018 contributor Anibal Sanchez now a free agent and Julio Teheran looking like a potential trade chip.
- More from Rosenthal, who tweets that the Mariners have shown interest in Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford in the clubs’ talks centering on Seattle’s Jean Segura. Acquiring Segura wouldn’t take the Phillies out of the running for free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, Rosenthal adds. If the Phillies were to land both, they’d use Segura at short and Machado at third, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Although, considering Machado has made it known he prefers shortstop, Salisbury notes that it’s unclear whether Philadelphia would be able to sell him on the hot corner – where he has spent the majority of his career. As for Crawford, he’s young (24 in January), affordable and controllable for a while, making him a fit for the rebuilding Mariners in those respects. Crawford hasn’t lived up to the elite prospect billing he once had, however. Across 138 major league plate appearances last season, Crawford turned in a passable batting line (.214/.319/.393 – good for a 96 wRC+), though he also posted subpar defensive numbers (minus-6 DRS, minus-3.4 UZR) in 229 innings at short.