Free Agent Profile: Luis Valbuena
Luis Valbuena entered free agency as arguably the second-best third baseman available, trailing only Justin Turner (by a significant margin, granted). Turner came off the board a couple weeks ago when he unsurprisingly re-signed with the Dodgers, but Valbuena remains without a deal. What’s more, there haven’t been many rumblings connecting the 31-year-old to potential employers this offseason.
Pros/Strengths
It took a few seasons for Valbuena to turn into a quality major leaguer, but he’s now coming off a four-year stretch (divided between the Cubs and Astros) in which he batted a respectable .237/.333/.428 and accounted for 8.4 fWAR in 1,773 plate appearances. Since 2014, his breakout offensive season, the lefty-swinging Valbuena has handled right-handed pitchers with a .253/.344/.473 line in 1,068 trips to the plate.
Before undergoing season-ending hamstring surgery last August, Valbuena was on track for a career year with a .260/.357/.459 line in 342 PAs. He was also amid his third straight season with an above-average isolated power number (.186 – the league mean in 2016 was .162). Valbuena’s patient, too, having posted double-digit walk rates in each season since 2012. He helped his cause last year in collecting free passes at career-high 12.9 percent clip, which ranked 19th in the majors among those with at least 300 PAs and well above the 8.2 percent average. Further, Valbuena swung at pitches outside the zone a personal-best 23.1 percent of the time, which was good for 21st in the league.
Cons/Weaknesses
While Valbuena has been terrific against righties, his bat has been virtually unplayable at times versus same-handed pitchers. In 530 career PAs, he has hit a meager .221/.310/.356 against lefties – including a lackluster .206/.299/.335 over the past three seasons. Along with his platoon issues at the plate, Valbuena isn’t a threat on the bases, which is particularly unfortunate when considering his high-OBP ways against righties. It also helps explain his history of recording low batting averages despite avoiding egregious strikeout totals. Better, faster baserunners take advantage of reaching, but Valbuena has never swiped more than two bags in a year, and he hasn’t exceeded the one-steal plateau since 2009.
Defensively, Valbuena isn’t a major liability at third, but he hasn’t been able to approach the effectiveness he showed there from 2012-13. That 1,700-plus-inning sample saw Valbuena rack up 11 Defensive Runs Saved and combine for a 21.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. He has registered minus-12 DRS to go with a minus-11.7 UZR in almost 2,500 innings since, though most of the DRS damage (minus-10) came in 2014.
Valbuena’s aforementioned hamstring surgery could also qualify as a negative, but there’s no word on whether that’s affecting his market.
Background
A native of Venezuela, Valbuena joined the Mariners organization back in 2002 as an undrafted free agent. The former middle infielder ended up debuting in the majors in 2008 with Seattle, which traded him to the Indians during the ensuing offseason. That deal also involved the Mets and included 11 other players (to name a few, Jason Vargas, Franklin Gutierrez and Joe Smith). Cleveland eventually sent Valbuena to Toronto for cash considerations in November 2011, but the Blue Jays lost him on waivers to the Cubs in advance of the 2012 season. That proved fruitful for the Cubs, who got a couple good years from Valbuena before shipping him and righty Dan Straily to the Astros in January 2015 for center fielder and 2016 World Series champion Dexter Fowler.
In his major league career, Valbuena has raked in $14,275,200 in earnings, according to Baseball Reference. He’s a client of Elite Sports Group.
Market
“Several” teams have expressed interest in Valbuena this offseason, his agent, Scott Schneider, said last month. The only reported suitors are the Yankees and Rays. Neither team looks like an obvious fit, though, given the options they have on hand at third, first (Valbuena’s occasional position since 2015) and designated hitter.
Clubs that could still stand to upgrade in the corner infield include the Braves, Red Sox, Athletics and Rangers. Atlanta might be the best choice, as Valbuena and right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would have the potential to make for a formidable offensive platoon. Boston has the luxury tax threshold to consider, meanwhile, and has already picked up first baseman Mitch Moreland in free agency. The Sox also seem content to roll with Pablo Sandoval and Brock Holt at third. Oakland is focused on adding a righty bat, which would rule out Valbuena, and Texas is set at third with the great Adrian Beltre. The Rangers still need first base help, but they’re zeroing in on Mike Napoli.
Expected Contract
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes forecast a two-year, $14MM deal for Valbuena entering the offseason. That still looks reasonable, but settling for less might be in the cards because so few teams look like clear matches for Valbuena.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pirates, Jordy Mercer Have Discussed Extension
The Pirates and shortstop Jordy Mercer have discussed a contract extension, though an agreement isn’t imminent, as Rum Bunter first reported and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review confirmed. The two sides have had “a little, but not a lot of talk,” a source told Biertempfel.
Mercer, a client of the Legacy Agency, is coming off a season in which he tied a career high in games played (149) and logged a personal-best 584 plate appearances. The 30-year-old wasn’t particularly effective, though, having hit a modest .256/.328/.374 (closely in line with his .257/.313/.377 lifetime mark) with 11 home runs and one stolen base. Mercer also didn’t rate well in the field, which was abnormal relative to the previous two years, as he finished toward the bottom of the majors at his position in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-9) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-8.4).
Mercer, who’s under control through the 2018 campaign, is scheduled to make his second trip through arbitration later this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $4MM arbitration award for Mercer, but it might not come to that. Pittsburgh doled out three extensions to regulars last year and could hand Mercer what should be an inexpensive deal early in 2017.
Free Agency Notes: Moss, Orioles, Gee, Royals
Free agent slugger Brandon Moss “has been linked to the Orioles,” writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 33-year-old possesses plenty of experience in the corner outfield – where general manager Dan Duquette is still looking for help even after acquiring Seth Smith on Friday – and could fit as a designated hitter in Baltimore. While re-signing Mark Trumbo would help fill those vacancies, Duquette didn’t sound optimistic about that Sunday. Moss should cost far less than Trumbo, largely because the former is coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons. As a member of the Cardinals last year, Moss swatted an impressive 28 home runs, but he nevertheless posted an unspectacular .225/.300/.484 line in 464 plate appearances. The lefty-swinger would at least add more power and variety to a mostly right-handed lineup, however.
More notes on the free agent market:
- Right-hander Dillon Gee received medical clearance Thursday after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter links). Gee, who should be ready for spring training, has garnered interest from multiple teams, per Cotillo (the Marlins contacted him earlier this offseason). The 30-year-old has been on the open market since November, when he cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. Gee spent 2016 in Kansas City, where he recorded a 4.68 ERA, 6.41 K/9 and 2.66 BB/9 in 125 innings and 33 appearances (14 starts).
- Speaking of the Royals, the budget-conscious club will continue to monitor the market for potential bargains as the spring approaches, GM Dayton Moore told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. “When the music stops, there’s always going to be a few guys without chairs,” Moore said. “And unfortunately, for those players, the options dwindle. For the clubs that stay aggressive and keep their pulse on everything, you can get some potential deals.” The Royals spent on several free agents – including Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy and Joakim Soria – over the previous couple winters, but they’ve taken a much less aggressive approach this offseason. So far, backup catcher Drew Butera is the only free agent Kansas City has given a major league deal.
White Sox Sign Everth Cabrera To Minor League Deal
Shortstop/second baseman Everth Cabrera hasn’t taken a major league at-bat since 2015, but that could change this year. Cabrera has signed a minor league contract with the White Sox, he announced earlier this week (via La Prensa in Nicaragua). The deal includes a non-roster invitation to big league camp.
Before agreeing to join the White Sox, Cabrera hadn’t been involved in a transaction with a major league team since the Giants added him on a minors pact in July 2015. That came after both the Padres and Orioles cut Cabrera, who hit a paltry .208/.250/.229 in 105 plate appearances with Baltimore in his latest big league action.
Cabrera was a legitimately useful player at times in San Diego, where he led the National League with 44 stolen bases in 2012 despite only playing in 115 games. The switch-hitter then made the All-Star team in 2013 and posted a .283/.355/.381 line and 37 steals in 435 PAs; however, MLB hit Cabrera with a 50-game performance-enhancing drugs suspension that August stemming from his ties to the Biogenesis scandal.
Cabrera, who turned 30 in November, has been playing in his native Nicaragua. When he returns to the States, he’ll join a rebuilding Chicago club in need of middle infield depth, though that could change if star second base prospect Yoan Moncada becomes a full-time big leaguer in 2017. For now, the Sox’s projected shorstop-second base combo consists of Tim Anderson and Brett Lawrie. Reserve Tyler Saladino is coming off a respectable year, but fellow backup Carlos Sanchez has been woeful offensively since debuting in 2014.
Poll: Do Astros Need To Acquire Front-End Starter?
As a result of a somewhat disappointing 2016 that began with World Series aspirations and ended with a third-place finish in the AL West, the Astros have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Since November, Houston has either traded for or signed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki and Charlie Morton in an attempt to beef up a roster that won 84 games last season. You’ll notice that only one of those five – Morton – is a starting pitcher, and he’s a back-end type who has dealt with a laundry list of injuries during his career.
The Astros’ inability to acquire a front-line starter this winter to join Morton and others in their rotation hasn’t been for a lack of trying, of course. To this point, the team has pursued trades for ex-White Sox and now-Red Sox ace Chris Sale, current ChiSox No. 1 Jose Quintana, various members of the Rays’ rotation – including Chris Archer – as well as Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura of the Royals. Astros president Reid Ryan has even publicly opined that the club is missing an ace.
“What we lack is that starter who you pencil in at the top of the rotation that is an automatic W,” Ryan told MLB Network Radio in December.
Of the starters the Astros have courted via trade, they’ve been the most aggressive with the 27-year-old Quintana, who has both an outstanding track record and an ultra-affordable contract. Houston and Chicago have been in touch on a daily basis regarding Quintana, though the Astros haven’t been willing to sacrifice possible long-term rotation pieces to land the southpaw. That includes 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove, who had an encouraging major league debut last season, and fellow righty Francis Martes. Unlike Musgrove, Martes hasn’t reached the big league level, but the 21-year-old was terrific with Double-A Corpus Christi in 2016 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 29th-best prospect.
“It would take something significant for us to move him,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said of Martes last month.
While Quintana does qualify as “significant,” it’s debatable whether a No. 1-type starter is more of a need than a luxury for the Astros. Their premier option, lefty Dallas Keuchel, took sizable steps backward last season as he dealt with shoulder troubles, yet he isn’t far removed from a two-year run of brilliance that culminated with the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. Shoulder issues also limited curveball-heavy righty Lance McCullers last season, but the 23-year-old has been highly effective when healthy since debuting in 2015. Across 206 2/3 innings, McCullers has logged a 3.22 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 50.5 percent ground-ball rate.
The other members of the Astros’ projected starting five – Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Morton – have decidedly less upside than Keuchel and McCullers, but each are capable major league starters. And, in the event of injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Astros possess depth with Musgrove, Martes, Brady Rodgers and David Paulino either ready for the majors or close to it. Further, led by Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz, Houston has a deep bullpen that can shorten games and take pressure off its rotation.
In the end, it would certainly be a boon for the Astros to add Quintana (or someone of his ilk) to what looks like a playoff-caliber roster. At least opening the season with their current contingent of rotation options would be far from catastrophic, though, and Luhnow could continue to monitor the trade market during the season if his starters don’t suffice. Of course, judging by his ongoing interest in Quintana, it seems Luhnow wants to bolster his rotation before the 2017 campaign commences. But does he really need to?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
Entering 2017, are the Astros serious contenders with current rotation options?
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No. They must acquire a front-end starter. 63% (5,829)
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Yes. It's a good enough group. 37% (3,396)
Total votes: 9,225
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Tigers, Yanks, Jays, Cards, Bucs, Prospects, HOF
This week in baseball blogs:
- Chin Music Baseball takes a detailed look at Tigers right fielder and trade candidate J.D. Martinez.
- Blue Jay Hunter wants Toronto to re-sign free agent outfielder Jose Bautista, while Jays From the Couch is a proponent of the team bringing back fellow unsigned outfielder Michael Saunders.
- Pinstriped Prospects contends that the Yankees should develop up-and-coming shortstop Gleyber Torres at third base.
- Pirates Breakdown identifies four free agent starters Pittsburgh could target.
- NYRDCAST offers 2017 projections for Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk and second baseman Kolten Wong.
- Outside Pitch MLB regards White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier as a fit for the Pirates.
- Inside the ‘Zona delves into the numbers to compare two very different Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Owings.
- Jays Journal and Bunt To The Gap are bullish on the Blue Jays’ re-signing of right-hander Gavin Floyd.
- Big Three Sports focuses on the future of Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina.
- Call To The Pen expects Phillies righties Jeremy Hellickson and Clay Buchholz to serve as trade bait prior to the summer deadline.
- Rotisserie Duck assesses some of this offseason’s free agent signings.
- Camden Depot criticizes Baseball America for the way it has ranked pitching prospects in recent years.
- MLB451 analyzes several cities that could someday receive expansion teams.
- The Point of Pittsburgh examines the pros and cons of Pirates third baseman Jung Ho Kang.
- Real McCoy Minor News chats with hard-throwing Rockies pitching prospect Salvador Justo.
- Call To The Pen posits that free agent swingman Travis Wood should remain in the bullpen.
- Mets Daddy argues that the club doesn’t need to sign a left-handed reliever.
- The Runner Sports lists five things to expect from the 2017 Yankees.
- Angelswin.com addresses the Halos’ left field situation.
- Cleveland Indians Perspective sees center fielder Tyler Naquin as the Tribe’s biggest question mark entering the upcoming season.
- Notes From the Sally previews the 2017 Columbia Fireflies, the Mets’ South Atlantic League affiliate.
- The 3rd Man In profiles shortstop prospect and 2017 draft pick-to-be Jason Willow.
- Sports Talk Philly opines that common sense is missing when it comes to Hall of Fame voting.
- Wayniac Nation views Braves legend Chipper Jones as a shoo-in Hall of Famer.
- Off The Bench Baseball assembles a political cabinet consisting of ex-major leaguers.
- The Runner Sports connects the Astros to Clemson and Alabama in honor of Monday’s college football national championship game.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger spotlights Yankees second base prospect Nick Solak.
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Cafardo’s Latest: Cutch, Pirates, Royals, Braves
The Pirates are reportedly unlikely to trade center fielder Andrew McCutchen, whom they heavily shopped at last month’s Winter Meetings, but teams are still trying to acquire him, a major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Toronto is the latest reported team to show interest in McCutchen, whom the Bucs are only willing to deal if they receive major league-ready talent in return. The 30-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career, having gone backward at the plate, in the field and on the base paths, but he still carries a resoundingly successful track record and an affordable contract (two years, $28.5MM, including a $14.5MM club option for 2018). Considering those factors, it’s not surprising that teams continue to pursue the longtime face of the Pittsburgh franchise.
More inside info from Cafardo:
- Free agent second baseman/third baseman Aaron Hill is on the radar of a few teams, and Atlanta and Kansas City could be among them, per Cafardo. Hill, 34, spent last season between Milwaukee and Boston, with which he combined to hit .262/.336/.378 with 10 home runs in 429 plate appearances. It’s debatable whether Hill would fit in Atlanta, which already seems to have a capable second base platoon on hand with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez, not to mention a third baseman with a similar offensive profile to Hill in Adonis Garcia. Both Hill and Garcia have hit southpaw pitchers better than right-handers in their careers, so it might behoove Atlanta to instead find a lefty-swinging complement to Garcia. KC, meanwhile, already has multiple third base options – Mike Moustakas and Cheslor Cuthbert – and a few second base candidates in Whit Merrifield, Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon and Cuthbert.
- Speaking of the Braves and Royals, they are interested in free agent third baseman/first baseman Trevor Plouffe, who has been available since the Twins outrighted him in November. Boston and Oakland are also in on the 30-year-old Plouffe, a steady contributor from 2014-15 who batted an underwhelming .260/.303/.420 with 12 homers in 344 PAs last season. Like Hill, Plouffe has had more success versus lefties (.268/.344/.465) than righties (.239/.294/.403) during his career.
- To finish off a Royals-heavy set of notes, it’s still possible they’ll trade one of Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer or outfielder Lorenzo Cain – all contract-year players – before the season, per Cafardo. A willingness to deal Moustakas or Hosmer, particularly the former, would somewhat explain Kansas City’s interest in Hill and Plouffe. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal previouly reported that Hosmer is unlikely to go anywhere prior to the season, though, and KC already subtracted a key outfielder Friday when it shipped Jarrod Dyson to Seattle. Speculatively, that could impact whether the Royals would also part with Cain, who’s due $11MM next season.
Quick Hits: Phillies, Rangers, Brewers, Tigers, Padres
A quick look around the majors as we wrap up the second day of 2017:
- The Rangers, Brewers and Tigers stand out as potential trade partners for the Phillies, observes Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com. In the cases of the Brewers and Tigers, Lawrence suggests the Phillies could put together a package to acquire an established corner outfielder in Ryan Braun or J.D. Martinez (Philly did inquire last month about Martinez, who’s entering a contract year). Texas, meanwhile, showed interest in Phillies starter Vince Velasquez last summer, leading Lawrence to wonder if the teams could strike a deal centering on the hard-throwing right-hander and power-hitting corner infield/outfield prospect Joey Gallo.
- Rangers president/general manager Jon Daniels doesn’t seem eager to try reliever Matt Bush as a starter, which is fine with the right-hander. “I’ve never started professionally. I feel great with where I’m at as a reliever right now,” Bush told T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. “I feel like it’s the best place for me right now. I still have some building to do with my arm. My career is very young. I just want to continue to do what I did last year.” Bush, 30, recorded a 2.48 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9 in 61 2/3 innings last year, making the ex-convict, former shortstop and 2004 No. 1 overall pick an unexpected success story.
- The Padres could go the trade route for a shortstop – they targeted Detroit’s Jose Iglesias and Texas’ Hanser Alberto at the Winter Meetings – but they’ve also considered signing a free agent, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The open market isn’t exactly teeming with obvious solutions, unfortunately, but finding outside help is in order. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd detailed last week, the Padres’ Luis Sardinas-led shortstop group doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Top 50 Free Agent Spending By Division
A new year has begun, which means the meat of the Major League Baseball offseason is in the rear-view mirror. There are still some quality free agents on the board as we inch closer to spring training, but the league has likely handed out its biggest contracts of the winter. This free agent class was weak from the start, as evidenced by the fact that only one player – Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes (four years, $110MM) – has netted a nine-figure contract. No one else has even gotten to $90MM (reliever Aroldis Chapman came close, granted), and nor will they.
Now, using the Top 50 free agent rankings that MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes put together entering the offseason, we’ll take a look at how much each division has spent on the best available players this winter. As of now, only 18 of the top 50 are unsigned. The 32 who have agreed to contracts – including those who accepted the qualifying offer – have combined to secure upward of $1 billion in guarantees.
AL East
3. Aroldis Chapman ($86MM)
13. Wilson Ramos ($12.5MM)
22. Kendrys Morales ($33MM)
40. Matt Holliday ($13MM)
42. Steve Pearce ($12.5MM)
Total = $157MM
A year after the Yankees abstained from signing a single major league free agent, they’ve reclaimed their spot as the AL East’s biggest offseason spenders with the acquisitions of Chapman and Holliday. The Blue Jays have doled out the second-most money in the division thanks to the signings of Morales and Pearce; plus, they could still re-up 12th-ranked free agent Jose Bautista, with whom they’re maintaining dialogue. While the Orioles haven’t picked up anyone from the top 50, that could change if they re-sign the No. 1-rated player left on the market, Mark Trumbo. The luxury tax-minded Red Sox have avoided big splashes via free agency, though they’ve done plenty of work via the trade route. And the low-payroll Rays, having already lured Ramos, remain on the lookout for another bat.
AL Central
2. Edwin Encarnacion ($60MM)
29. Jason Castro ($24.5MM)
50. Derek Holland ($6MM)
Total = $90.5MM
Encarnacion is surprisingly on his way to the Indians, who will finalize his contract this week, on a deal with a far lower guarantee than most expected he’d receive coming into the offseason. The rebuilding Twins signed the division’s second-priciest free agent, catcher/pitch-framing whiz Jason Castro, and the fellow non-contending White Sox brought a reclamation project into the fold in Holland. The AL Central’s other teams, the Tigers and Royals, could compete for playoff spots next season, but they’re trying to tamp down payroll. Thus, it’s no shock that they’ve been inactive in free agency.
AL West
17. Josh Reddick ($52MM)
19. Carlos Gomez ($11.5MM)
28. Andrew Cashner ($10MM)
33. Carlos Beltran ($16MM)
43. Matt Joyce ($11MM)
46. Charlie Morton ($14MM)
Total = $114.5MM
The Texas-based Astros (Reddick, Beltran and Morton) and Rangers (Gomez and Cashner) have essentially monopolized free agent spending in the AL West this offseason. With Joyce in the fold, the A’s are the division’s only other team that has landed a top 50 free agent. The Mariners have a general manager, Jerry Dipoto, who has a penchant for making trades, so they’ve mostly gone that route to acquire talent this winter. The Angels, meanwhile, haven’t been quiet in free agency (Ben Revere, Jesse Chavez and Andrew Bailey) or on the trade market (Cameron Maybin and Danny Espinosa), but they also haven’t reeled in any big fish.
NL East
1. Yoenis Cespedes ($110MM)
7. Jeremy Hellickson ($17.2MM)
18. Neil Walker ($17.2MM)
27. Brad Ziegler ($16MM)
35. Sean Rodriguez ($11.5MM)
41. Bartolo Colon ($12.5MM)
47. Edinson Volquez ($22MM)
48. R.A. Dickey ($8MM)
Total = $214.4MM
While the Mets (Cespedes and Walker) have outspent everyone else in the NL East in free agency, the Braves lead the way with three top 50 additions (Rodriguez, Colon and Dickey). The Marlins have also inked multiple players (Ziegler and Volquez), but they originally had much loftier targets in mind in Chapman and Kenley Jansen. The reigning division champion Nationals haven’t signed any high-profile free agents yet (they did make a blockbuster trade, of course), but that could change if they go for one of the best relievers remaining on the market and/or catcher Matt Wieters. As is the case with the Nats, Atlanta’s in the mix for Wieters, who was MLBTR’s 16th-ranked free agent at the outset of the offseason. Hellickson – who, like Walker, eschewed free agency in favor of the qualifying offer – is the only Phillie on the list.
NL West
4. Justin Turner ($64MM)
5. Kenley Jansen ($80MM)
9. Ian Desmond ($70MM)
11. Mark Melancon ($62MM)
14. Rich Hill ($48MM)
Total = $324MM
Thanks largely to the ultra-rich Dodgers, who re-signed three of their own in Turner, Jansen and Hill, the NL West is easily the highest-spending division in the majors this offseason. The Rockies unexpectedly added Desmond for the division’s second-largest guarantee, and they could make more waves if their ongoing interest in Trumbo leads to a deal. After witnessing far too many second-half bullpen meltdowns last season, including in October, San Francisco unsurprisingly nabbed Melancon. Finally, given their respective states, the Diamondbacks and Padres have only been in the market for scrapheap pickups.
NL Central
6. Dexter Fowler ($82.5MM)
10. Ivan Nova ($26MM)
26. Brett Cecil ($30.5MM)
37. Jon Jay ($8MM)
45. Eric Thames ($16MM)
Total = $163MM
Aside from the Cardinals, who bolstered their roster with Fowler and Cecil, the NL Central has spent modestly this offseason. The reigning World Series champion Cubs lost Fowler, whom they’ll try to replace with a Jay/Albert Almora platoon, while the Pirates brought back Nova after the market didn’t develop to his liking. The Brewers’ only top 50 signing has been the 30-year-old Thames, a first baseman who played in Korea from 2014-16 and put up videogamelike numbers during that span. As for the rebuilding Reds, they’ve completely avoided free agency.
This is an updated version of a Charlie Wilmoth post that ran Dec. 21, 2014.
Free Agent Profile: Chris Carter
Although first baseman Chris Carter wasn’t scheduled to hit the open market entering the offseason, that changed when the Brewers designated the 30-year-old for assignment Nov. 29. Milwaukee then shopped Carter around the majors, but after the club was unable to find any trade partners willing to take his projected $8.1MM salary for 2017, it cut him loose Dec. 2. A month later, Carter remains among a group of powerful but flawed hitters still sitting without contracts.
Pros/Strengths
Few provide more thump than the right-handed Carter, who co-led the National League with 41 home runs last season, paced the NL in isolated power (.277) and finished eighth in the majors in barrels (56, per Statcast). Since 2013, Carter’s first full major league campaign, only five players (Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, the now-retired David Ortiz and Mike Trout) have combined for more homers than his 131, while just seven (the aforementioned names as well as Giancarlo Stanton and Khris Davis) have outdone his .251 ISO.
Carter also brings above-average patience, having registered double-digit walk rates in three of his four full seasons. He took a free pass 11.8 percent of the time in 2016, which was right in line with his career mark (11.6) and easily superior to the league mean (8.2). Further, if Carter’s on your roster, you can count on penciling him in nearly every day (he has racked up three 145-game seasons, including a career-high 160 last year) and he isn’t overly vulnerable against either right- or left-handed pitchers. While Carter has done better versus southpaws (.221/.337/.459 in 840 plate appearances), his production against righties (.217/.303/.466 in 1,805 PAs) has certainly been respectable.
Cons/Weaknesses
If you’re a fan of hitters who put the ball in play regularly, you’re probably not particularly bullish on Carter, who has posted strikeout percentages in the low-30s and contact rates in the mid-60s in each of his major league seasons. All told, Carter has recorded league worsts in strikeout and contact rates (33.2 and 64.9, respectively) since 2013, and he ended up last in those two categories in 2016. As a result, Carter is the owner of an ugly .218 career batting average, which has heavily detracted from the value of his power and patience combination and led to a subpar on-base percentage (.314).
Elsewhere, the lumbering Carter doesn’t offer positives either on the base paths or in the field. He was a bottom 20 baserunner last season in the estimation of FanGraphs’ UBR and BsR metrics, while both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating regarded him as one of the worst first basemen in the league.
Background
Carter is a Redwood City, Calif., native who grew up in Las Vegas, where he still resides during the offseason. When the White Sox selected Carter in the 15th round of the 2005 draft, he was a third base prospect. Carter has never lined up at the hot corner in the majors, though, and he wasn’t long for the ChiSox organization. They traded him to Arizona for outfielder Carlos Quentin in December 2007, and the Diamondbacks quickly flipped him (along with Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, among others) to the Athletics a week and a half later for right-hander Dan Haren. Carter remained with the A’s until February 2013, when they sent him and two others (catcher Max Stassi and righty Brad Peacock) to the Astros for infielder Jed Lowrie and reliever Fernando Rodriguez.
In his time with the A’s, Astros and Brewers, Carter – who’s a client of the Dave Stewart-run Sports Management Partners – has made $7.679MM, according to Baseball Reference.
Market
Carter is currently taking a backseat to fellow right-handed free agent sluggers in Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli, though multiple teams have made inquiries, Stewart said a couple weeks ago. The Orioles, Rangers and Rays were reportedly interested in adding Carter as of last month, and all three still have holes at first base and/or designated hitter. Carter would be a fit with any of those clubs, then, while staying in the NL and joining the Rockies is also a possibility. Carter taking his prodigious power to Colorado’s Coors Field is fun to think about, but heading to the AL – where he’d be able to DH – might be the better move.
Expected Contract
It has been almost exactly one year since Carter inked a $2.5MM deal with the Brewers last Jan. 6. That came on the heels of a 24-homer season in which he failed to clear the Mendoza line with a .199 average in 460 trips to the plate. Thanks to his bounce-back 2016, Carter is more appealing now than he was last winter, though another one-year contract appears likely. Carter’s next deal should be richer than his previous one, but given that teams didn’t want him at his projected arbitration salary, he’ll hardly break the bank.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.