Quick Hits: Nationals, Baker, Red Sox, NPB
While Nationals manager Dusty Baker is entering a contract year, that won’t be the case for long, suggests Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. By the time the Nationals begin spring training in mid-February, Kerzel expects the club to extend Baker’s deal. The soon-to-be 68-year-old Baker is only one season into his Nats tenure, but it was a successful campaign for the franchise. Washington went 95-67 in 2016 en route to a National League East title and a five-game NLDS loss to the Dodgers. Baker, formerly with the Giants, Cubs and Reds, is now 17th all-time in managerial wins (1,766) and should vault into the top 15 next season.
A couple more notes from around baseball on a quiet first day of 2017 (happy New Year, readers!):
- Two-way superstar Shohei Otani understandably receives almost all the attention when it comes to players currently in Japan, but he’s not the only member of Nippon Pro Baseball with major league upside, as Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues details. Four pitchers – right-handers Kohei Arihara, Shintaro Fujinami, Takahiro Norimoto and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi – and infielder Tetsuto Yamada are names to watch, per Axisa. Interestingly, Fujinami rivaled Otani as a pitching prospect in 2012, though he obviously hasn’t taken off to nearly the same extent since. The 22-year-old Fujinami is nevertheless a strikeout machine who logged a 3.25 ERA in 169 innings last season; unfortunately, though, he’s likely at least a few seasons away from coming to the majors because of the new collective bargaining agreement.
- The Red Sox remain one of the majors’ most talented teams despite losing designated hitter David Ortiz to retirement, but filling his leadership void could be a significant obstacle next season, opines Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Among the current Red Sox, highly respected second baseman Dustin Pedroia stands out as the likeliest to take over for Ortiz, writes Mastrodonato. Pedroia, for his part, is confident the club will be fine without Ortiz’s clubhouse presence. “We’re in good shape,” Pedroia said. “I think, especially what David did leadership-wise with a ton of guys, he’s leaving us in good shape. We’ll be all right.”
Poll: Free Agent Relievers
Before they inked mega-deals earlier this offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon understandably dominated headlines as the unquestioned best relievers available in free agency. No one remaining on the market will land a contract even approaching theirs (Melancon’s on the low end at a whopping $62MM), but there are still several proven late-game commodities who haven’t signed yet.
Melancon is taking over as the Giants’ closer, a role previously held by a pair of current free agents in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. The 36-year-old Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.
Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.
No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.
Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.
Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.
While these five aren’t in the Chapman-Jansen-Melancon class, all could serve as boons to their next teams’ bullpens. In your opinion, which member of the group is the most desirable target? Or, instead of this quintet, maybe there’s another free agent reliever you’d rather have.
(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
Who's The Best Reliever Left On the Open Market?
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Greg Holland 54% (6,049)
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Neftali Feliz 14% (1,547)
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Joe Blanton 13% (1,452)
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Sergio Romo 11% (1,189)
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Santiago Casilla 5% (532)
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Other 5% (510)
Total votes: 11,279
3 Remaining Needs: American League Central
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
So far, we’ve checked in on the NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the AL Central, a division which features the reigning league champions…
- Outfield Depth: The Indians are fine on paper with Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer representing their primary outfield options, but there’s uncertainty surrounding Brantley. The star-caliber performer from 2014-15 missed all but 11 games last season because of a shoulder injury, and while he and the team are optimistic about his status, “better safe than sorry” applies. With that in mind, the Indians have been connected to free agents like Rajai Davis, a member of the Tribe in 2016, and Michael Saunders. Davis would be the more realistic acquisition, but Cleveland’s payroll limitations are standing in the way of a deal. Whether it’s Davis or someone else, though, having another outfielder – one who’s more established than Abraham Almonte – would be nice.
- Left-Handed Reliever: Again, after winning the Edwin Encarnacion sweepstakes, the Indians might not have the financial freedom to do much else. Nevertheless, they have been in the market for a left-handed reliever, perhaps to take some pressure off Andrew Miller late in games. While Miller is arguably the best reliever in the sport, the Indians will have to monitor his workload to some degree next season after their liberal usage of him last year.
- Utility Infielder: As you can probably tell, the Indians aren’t exactly loaded with weaknesses; hence the “need” to add competition for a reserve infield spot. After a strong season at Triple-A Columbus, Erick Gonzalez is the front-runner to serve as a backup to the Indians’ high-caliber group of infield starters. Michael Martinez could push for a spot, but he has been a woeful hitter in his major league career (.197/.241/.266 in 578 plate appearances). Signing a cheap free agent to vie for a role might not be a bad idea, then.
- Cut Payroll: General manager Al Avila made it clear at the outset of the offseason that the Tigers, who exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2016, need to scale back their spending. Trading on-the-block outfielder J.D. Martinez and his $11.75MM salary would help in that regard, but it would subtract a key piece from what should be a playoff-contending roster. It would be far more beneficial for Detroit’s chances in 2017 to somehow jettison at least one of Anibal Sanchez ($21MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2018) or Mike Pelfrey ($8MM). Teams have checked in on the two right-handers this offseason, but it’s unclear if serious talks have developed.
- Center Field: While the Tigers shed money earlier in the offseason in trading Cameron Maybin to the Angels, doing so left them devoid of even a somewhat proven center fielder. In the wake of Maybin’s exit, Avila said last month he’s seeking center field help “on every front,” as his top in-house choices for next season are Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones and Anthony Gose. Free agency offers some veterans who shouldn’t cost much in ex-Tiger Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos and Desmond Jennings, among others, though Avila acknowledged that acquiring a center fielder via trade is a possibility.
- Figure Out The Bullpen: This is mostly in reference to left-handed reliever Justin Wilson, who has drawn significant interest on the trade market this offseason. As is the case with Martinez, though, shipping Wilson out would damage Detroit’s chances of contending in 2017. Plus, Wilson isn’t even particularly expensive (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts a $2.7MM arbitration award). The Tigers are also listening to offers for right-hander Shane Greene, but they’re better positioned to absorb losing him with righties like Francisco Rodriguez, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and minor league destroyer Joe Jimenez in the fold. On the other hand, the only non-Justin Wilson southpaw reliever on their projected 25-man roster is Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf.
- Bullpen: Like Cleveland and Detroit, Kansas City is another AL Central team dealing with payroll constraints. The Royals aren’t eager to tear things down, though, which would be an easy route to take for a team with so many integral players entering contract years. One of those cogs, closer Wade Davis, is now gone. GM Dayton Moore sent him to the Cubs for a major league contributor – and one with high upside – in outfielder Jorge Soler, which saved the Royals $7MM. That was a sound move by the Royals, but they now have a gaping hole in their bullpen because of it. As a result, they’re searching for a late-game complement to Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, with longtime Royals and now-free agents Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar on the radar.
- Starting Pitcher: Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee combined for 314 1/3 innings last year – albeit not overly effective ones – and are now out of the organization. The Royals’ depth has taken a hit, then, and they’re on track to rely on Matt Strahm – who was brilliant in relief in 2016 – and 2015 Tommy John surgery recipient Jason Vargas to step into their starting five alongside Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. That quintet has the potential to succeed, but the club should protect against injuries and/or underwhelming performances with an outside acquisition who’s an upgrade over the likes of Chris Young and Mike Minor. Jason Hammel is reportedly an option if his price comes down enough, but that seems like a long shot. If so, there are several other veteran starters on the open market who will come at lesser costs should the Royals look to bolster their rotation depth.
- Middle Infielder: With Whit Merrifield and 2016 third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert around, the Royals might be able to address this concern from within. That would be ideal for an organization whose other middle infielders scuffled last season. Shortstop Alcides Escobar (.261/.292/.350 in 682 PAs), second baseman Raul Mondesi (.185/.231/.281 in 149 PAs) and backup Christian Colon (.231/.294/.293 in 161 PAs) brought nothing to the table at the plate in 2016.
- Keep Dealing Veterans: GM Rick Hahn said last summer that the White Sox’s direction for 2017 would become obvious early in the offseason. True to his word, Hahn shipped out ace Chris Sale and outfielder Adam Eaton for a cavalcade of touted prospects at the Winter Meetings, thereby announcing that Chicago’s in a rebuild. Sale and Eaton probably aren’t going to be the last known commodities to leave the organization via trade in the coming months, either, as front-line starter Jose Quintana, third baseman Todd Frazier, first baseman Jose Abreu, closer David Robertson and outfielder Melky Cabrera are also available.
- Outfield: The likes of Avisail Garcia, Charlie Tilson and Jason Coats will compete for starting roles alongside Cabrera in left, while waiver claim Rymer Liriano (.220/.289/.266 in his 121-PA major league debut last season) is set to serve as depth. That’s an unspectacular collection of players, clearly, and even the 24-year-old Tilson – the youngest of the bunch – merely projects as a reserve or below-average regular, according to FanGraphs prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. Given the state of the franchise, the White Sox don’t need to make a splash with a big-time outfield pickup, but finding someone to supplement their current group via free agency would be sensible. Adding an inexpensive outfield bat this offseason might serve a purpose around next summer’s trade deadline, where the White Sox could flip that player for another prospect(s) if he shows well.
- Catcher: The White Sox aren’t exactly in great shape behind the plate with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith as their top options at the moment. The 24-year-old Narvaez has more upside than Smith, 28, though the former doesn’t have an overly promising track record as either a hitter or pitch framer. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions, but the White Sox could benefit from Matt Wieters‘ decision. If he signs with the Braves, for instance, the Sox would be wise to at least inquire about their former backstop, Atlanta’s Tyler Flowers. On the other hand, the Nationals could shop one of their well-regarded veteran framers – Derek Norris or Jose Lobaton – if they sign Wieters. White Sox pitchers have lost a lot of strikes lately because of subpar framing, so finding a backstop capable of aiding young starters like Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez would be logical.
- Decide Brian Dozier‘s Fate: The Twins’ star second baseman has been on the block throughout the offseason, and a resolution finally looks imminent. New Twins front office bosses Derek Falvey (chief baseball officer) and Thad Levine (general manager) have asked teams to submit their final offers for Dozier and will soon determine whether to trade him. Minnesota is arguably in a win-win position with Dozier, as it’ll either land a high-end prospect (or more) for him or retain one of the sport’s best second baseman for at least a bit longer. The Brewers were in a similar position last year with catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who didn’t go anywhere in the offseason despite myriad rumors. Milwaukee then shipped him to Texas during the summer for a prospect bounty. Dozier, like Lucroy last winter, has two years of team control left at a palatable price tag ($15MM combined).
- Starting Pitching: The Twins have asked teams for controllable starting pitching in their Dozier talks, and they might secure a potential long-term piece in Jose De Leon if a deal with the Dodgers materializes. Otherwise, the Twins have shown interest this offseason in low-cost veterans like Clayton Richard, who re-signed with the Padres, and Justin Masterson. The club has four veteran starters in Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, and acquiring a fifth could lead to all three of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia receiving further seasoning at the Triple-A level.
- Bullpen: Levine revealed a couple weeks ago that Minnesota is searching for experienced late-game arms, and there are a slew of those available in free agency. Even though the Twins aren’t contenders, offering a veteran a prominent eighth- or ninth-inning role could entice one to join the club. The rebuilding Twins could then shop that player as the season progresses if he fares nicely.
MLBTR Originals
Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:
- Before first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion agreed to join the Indians, Jeff Todd asked readers to predict where he would sign. The plurality of voters accurately predicted Cleveland would be Encarnacion’s destination.
- A transaction-filled December was winding down at the time, so I polled readers on which move looks like the most questionable decision of the month. The MLBTR audience doesn’t seem too bullish on the Nationals’ choice to trade a significant prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton.
- Two NL East center fielders, the Phillies’ Odubel Herrera and the Braves’ Ender Inciarte, signed extensions earlier this month. With that in mind, Jeff compared their deals and wondered which team got the superior value. According to the majority of voters, the Braves did better.
- Given that the Reds haven’t signed a major league free agent this offseason, Steve Adams and Jeff detailed 10 available players – all relievers – who are logical fits to end up in Cincinnati.
- After Encarnacion and right-hander Ivan Nova exited the open market, I updated the top 10 free agents left on the board. The list is based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes assembled entering the winter. Slugger Mark Trumbo is likely poised to sign the richest contract of the remaining free agent class.
- Mark Polishuk highlighted 10 teams that will soon have decisions to make on managers and/or front office bosses who are entering contract years.
- Cubs ace-caliber right-hander Jake Arrieta is going into a contract year, so Jeff looked at what it might cost the World Series champions to extend him this offseason. Most voters don’t expect a deal to come together.
- Unlike Arrieta, Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez is a few years from free agency. Nevertheless, Jeff tried to nail down how much it might cost St. Louis to extend the first-time arbitration-eligible 25-year-old.
- Steve listed seven possible landing spots for free agent catcher Matt Wieters, whom voters expect to sign with the Braves.
- Speaking of catchers, Steve pondered whether Sandy Leon, Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez stands the best chance to serve as the Red Sox’s long-term answer behind the plate.
- Many free agents are fresh off less-than-stellar years, though Jeff made cases for 20 players – 10 hitters and pitchers apiece – who could be in line for bounce-back 2017 campaigns.
- While it seems Ian Desmond will man first base for the Rockies next season, that isn’t necessarily etched in stone. Thus, Jeff delved into several other possibilities – including Trumbo.
- The top two unsigned left-handed relievers are Jerry Blevins and Boone Logan, leading Jeff to contemplate which is the more appealing option.
- Capping off a busy week for Jeff, he detailed each NL West team’s three biggest remaining needs as Spring Training inches closer. Mark did the same with the AL East, while I handled the NL East.
3 Remaining Needs: National League East
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
In the first two editions of this series, Jeff Todd broke down the NL West and Mark Polishuk examined the AL East. Now a look at where the NL East’s five teams stand as the calendar flips:
- Bullpen: With Mark Melancon gone, the Nationals are currently projected to rely on Shawn Kelley (11 career saves) as their closer. Based on his output the past couple seasons, Kelley is worthy of the role, but there are durability concerns with the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Kelley has never thrown more than the 58 frames he tossed last season; more alarmingly, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who, per a study done by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum, comes with an elevated risk to eventually need another procedure. Even without Kelley’s injury history, acquiring relief help is in order. Washington got a combined 242 2/3 innings last season from Melancon, Yusmeiro Petit, Felipe Rivero, Matt Belisle, Jonathan Papelbon, Reynaldo Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski. Not a single one of them is a member of the organization anymore. Therefore, it would make sense to add at least one more veteran to the likes of Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez. The club already tried to re-sign Melancon and reel in Kenley Jansen, but those attempts failed. Even with those two off the board, free agency is hardly bereft of options. In the event Washington decides to stick with in-house choices, it has a couple intriguing youngsters in Koda Glover and Trevor Gott.
- Infield Depth: The Nationals’ infield depth took a hit with the loss of Danny Espinosa, and current free agent Stephen Drew could also be in another uniform next season. Either re-upping Drew, which is a possibility, or signing another veteran would give the team more proven insurance than Wilmer Difo (77 career plate appearances) behind second baseman Daniel Murphy, shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Murphy is capable of playing first base if Ryan Zimmerman endures another poor year or suffers an injury in 2017, but that would leave the team wanting at the keystone.
- Rotation Depth: In trading Lopez and Lucas Giolito to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, the Nats subtracted some of their starting pitching depth. That’s somewhat concerning given that starters Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross are coming off injury-plagued years, which perhaps increases the need to add rotation insurance behind those two, Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez. A.J. Cole and Austin Voth might suffice thereafter, but there’s very little of intrigue beyond them (Double-A prospect Erick Fedde could crack the major leagues sometime next season, granted). The Nationals had an established veteran starter in camp last year in Bronson Arroyo, who ended up missing 2016 because of injuries, and could look for a similar depth option prior to next season.
- Outfield: There are only two corner outfield spots, yet the Mets arguably have four starting-caliber players on hand in Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce. Cespedes isn’t going anywhere, obviously, and Conforto’s place on the roster appears secure. The writing is on the wall, then, for either Granderson or Bruce (very likely the latter) to exit the organization via trade by next season. The Mets have been reluctant to deal Bruce without getting anything useful in return, but they might have to settle for dumping his salary in order to clear their corner outfield logjam and free up spending room. In doing so, New York would still face uncertainty in center field. Juan Lagares has fallen off since a strong 2014 showing that led the Mets to sign him to a four-year extension with $23MM in guarantees. Cespedes and Granderson also have experience in center, but neither is an ideal fit there. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen has come up as a trade possibility, but he was a defensive nightmare last season and the Mets aren’t actively looking to acquire him (or any other center fielder), anyway.
- Right-Handed Reliever: The Mets are going to lose closer Jeurys Familia to at least a month-long suspension, which will leave the team with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles as its go-to choices to preserve late leads. Mindful of that, general manager Sandy Alderson has checked in on the likes of Wade Davis (before the Royals traded him to the Cubs), Brad Brach (Orioles) and Alex Colome (Rays) on the trade front this winter, but nothing has materialized. White Sox closer David Robertson represents another possible acquisition, though he’d be a costly pickup. There are still appealing names on the open market, where Greg Holland, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz and 2016 Met Fernando Salas are among those without contracts.
- Left-Handed Reliever: New York has three lefty relievers on its projected 25-man roster in Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker and Sean Gilmartin, but none had encouraging 2016 campaigns (in fairness to Edgin, he was on the rebound from 2015 Tommy John surgery and finished the year well). Jerry Blevins was terrific last season, but he’s now a free agent and, along with Boone Logan, one of the top two southpaw setup men left in free agency. The Mets have shown interest in each this offseason, but payroll limitations have prevented them from signing either (presumably, they’ve also stood in the way of securing right-handed help).
- Starting Pitcher: Forced to forge ahead without the late, great Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have made a couple unexciting additions to their rotation this winter with the signings of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. They now have a full starting five on paper with those two joining Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley and Tom Koehler, but it’s not the most confidence-inspiring group. With that in mind, Miami is still in the market for a starter, though it’s seemingly limiting itself to low-cost depth types. Luckily for the Marlins, there are plenty of those left in free agency.
- First Base: As long as they’re facing a right-handed pitcher, the Marlins are in fine shape at first base with Justin Bour. But, in an admittedly small sample size of 110 major league plate appearances, the lefty-swinging Bour has struggled mightily against southpaw hurlers (.223/.273/.291, no home runs). Thus, it would behoove the Fish to find a better platoon partner for Bour than the penciled-in Miguel Rojas – although a righty, he has posted a woeful .184/.225/.272 line versus lefties in 122 PAs. Any of Dae-ho Lee, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Plouffe, Adam Rosales or 2016 Marlin Chris Johnson could be realistic targets via free agency. Miami hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Johnson, who – despite a subpar 2016 – has historically held his own against lefties.
- Left-Handed Reliever: It’s not a must for the Marlins to find a southpaw reliever, as their most prominent righty options – A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Kyle Barraclough and Junichi Tazawa – are capable of getting all hitters out. Nevertheless, it would be nice for the club to have more than one left-handed reliever on its 40-man roster. As of now, only Hunter Cervenka is in the fold, though same-sided batters hit a paltry .198/.306/.318 against the then-rookie last season. Signing a free agent like Javier Lopez could make sense; even though the longtime Giant’s coming off a season to forget, he has a lengthy track record of success preventing runs and would like to remain close to his Georgia home.
- Third Base: Their interest in Brian Dozier notwithstanding, the Braves appear to have a respectable offensive platoon lined up at second base with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. On the other side of the diamond, finding a complement to right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would be beneficial. Garcia has hit an underwhelming .262/.293/.407 in 152 trips to the plate against righties, while reserve Chase d’Arnaud (also a righty) hasn’t done any better (.218/.278/.278 in 279 PAs). Free agent Luis Valbuena is a potential fit, but he’s an upgrade over Garcia in general and would warrant an everyday role. Otherwise, the aforementioned Stephen Drew – a left-handed hitter and Georgia native – could be a reasonable free agent target to pair with Garcia.
- Bullpen: As it stands, the Braves’ sole 30-something reliever is closer Jim Johnson, with Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol serving as only semi-established options. While it’s quite possible the Braves are comfortable with a mostly young bullpen that will also include Mauricio Cabrera and Jose Ramirez, among others, signing one of the many available veterans on a short-term deal would have a chance to pay dividends over the long haul. For example, the Braves could take a similar approach to last year’s Padres, who bought low on Fernando Rodney, got a few good months out of him and flipped him for a prospect prior to the trade deadline. That’s assuming the Braves aren’t contenders next year, of course.
- Catcher: With Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker in the equation, this arguably isn’t a pressing short-term need for a rebuilding club, but free agent backstop Matt Wieters is nonetheless on Atlanta’s radar. It’s debatable how much of an upgrade (if at all) the ex-Georgia Tech star would be over Flowers, though. Wieters, unlike Flowers, is not a well-regarded pitch framer, and the longtime Oriole is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. If Atlanta doesn’t land the switch-hitting Wieters, it’ll likely be content to roll with Flowers and Recker next season.
- Corner Outfield: The Phillies’ most proven corner outfield bat belongs to Howie Kendrick, who has played 1,100 games at second base compared to just 114 in left field and is coming off a below-average offensive year. While the rebuilding club could simply utilize Kendrick and younger players like Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and Tyler Goeddel (the latter two were dreadful in 2016) next season, dipping into free agency for another outfielder remains a possibility. If general manager Matt Klentak does sign anyone, odds are it’ll be a left-handed hitter. Of the previously mentioned four, only the switch-hitting Quinn is capable of batting from the left side.
- Bullpen: Klentak has revealed he’s looking for more relief help, though he has already been busy on that front throughout the offseason. Philadelphia has acquired three stopgaps in Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Sean Burnett (on a minor league deal), but its projected major league bullpen could stand to make improvements beyond Benoit, Neshek, Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez.
- Left-Handed Starter: The Phillies’ starting five at the moment features nothing but right-handers, and Adam Morgan is their only Triple-A starter who’s a southpaw. Perhaps it would be logical to sign a swingman like Travis Wood, who could initially work out of the bullpen (joining fellow lefty Joely Rodriguez) and then potentially factor into the rotation if someone suffers an injury or underperforms.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: CBA, Orioles, Indians, Jays, Yanks, Pirates
This week in baseball blogs:
- Unsung Zeroes breaks down the ramifications of the newly minted collective bargaining agreement.
- Jays From the Couch blames Edwin Encarnacion‘s agent for the first baseman/designated hitter’s departure from Toronto.
- Camden Depot ponders the future of Orioles center fielder Adam Jones.
- Real McCoy Minor News chats with Indians outfield prospect Bradley Zimmer.
- The 3rd Man In interviews highly touted 2017 draft prospect Royce Lewis.
- When Sid Slid praises the Braves for their work this winter and looks ahead to next offseason.
- Pirates Breakdown (links here) identifies potential bargain outfielders and relievers for the Bucs to target in free agency.
- MLB451 wonders if anyone is today’s game is capable of finishing a season with more home runs than strikeouts.
- Call To The Pen suggests a few moves that would help the rebuilding Padres return to relevance in the coming years.
- Chin Music Baseball sees striking similarities between the Mets and Indians, two World Series hopefuls.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger discusses the Yankees’ offseason in a podcast.
- The Point of Pittsburgh analyzes the Pirates’ young, in-house rotation options.
- Jays Journal writes that drafting and developing relievers could be the next competitive edge in Major League Baseball.
- BirdsWatcher tries to determine how much it would cost the Orioles to extend second baseman Jonathan Schoop.
- Notes from the Sally previews the 2017 Charleston Riverdogs, the Yankees’ South Atlantic League affiliate.
- Now On Deck and Rotisserie Duck present their mock Hall of Fame ballots.
- Fake Teams offers a two-round mock fantasy draft.
- Sports Talk Philly doesn’t expect Mike Trout, a New Jersey product who grew up a Phillies fan, to ever play for the club.
- Everything Bluebirds argues that the Blue Jays should be wary of trading with the Rockies.
- Outside Pitch MLB opines that the lack of a market for free agent catcher Matt Wieters could benefit the Nationals.
- Die Hard NYY regards free agent first baseman James Loney as a logical Yankees target.
- Call To The Pen previews a few positions that will be up for grabs for the Phillies during spring training.
- North Shore Nine revisits the top 10 moments of the Pirates’ 2016 season.
- Pinstriped Prospects credits the Yankees for the amount of undrafted players positively impacting their system.
- The Runner Sports looks back fondly at former major league right-hander Darryl Kile, who died in 2002.
Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.
Top 10 Remaining Free Agents
MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth broke down the top 10 free agents remaining on the market last week, which he based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes put together entering the offseason. Edwin Encarnacion and Ivan Nova, the first- and third-ranked unsigned players left as of Dec. 17, have since come off the board. That means a couple new faces will slide into this week’s list, while updates have come in on some of the others in recent days. Here’s the latest:
8. Mark Trumbo, 1B/DH/OF: The Orioles rescinded their four-year offer to Trumbo shortly after our rankings went up a week ago, but general manager Dan Duquette then stated that there’s still a “window open” to re-sign him. Baltimore could face competition from Colorado, whose GM, Jeff Bridich, acknowledged Tuesday that the team is “keeping track” of Trumbo. The plurality of MLBTR readers expect Trumbo to end up staying with the Orioles, though, after he smashed a major league-best 47 home runs as a member of the club in 2016.
12. Jose Bautista, OF/DH: This offseason has not gone according to plan for the 36-year-old Bautista, who seems to stand little chance of landing even a medium-term deal. The idea of joining the Rays, who wouldn’t have to give up their protected first-round pick to sign Bautista, has continued to come up, but it’s clearly a long shot. Although Bautista’s a Tampa Bay-area resident, he’s still out of the Rays’ price range. The longtime Blue Jay is open to accepting a one-year contract, but the value would have to exceed that of the $17.2MM qualifying offer. He rejected the QO from Toronto prior to free agency, of course, and the Jays haven’t made him an offer worth more since.
15. Jason Hammel, SP: As is the case with Bautista, the winter hasn’t unfolded to Hammel’s liking. Thus, the 34-year-old right-hander changed agencies Tuesday.
16. Matt Wieters, C: The four-time All-Star won’t be returning to Baltimore for a ninth season in 2017, but nearby Washington and one of its NL East rivals, Atlanta, look like real possibilities. While the Nationals traded for a potential starting backstop in ex-Padre Derek Norris earlier this month, they could pick up Wieters and flip Norris elsewhere. Plus, their hierarchy is close with Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras. Signing with the Braves, meanwhile, would enable Wieters to head back to his native south (he’s from Charleston, S.C.) and to the state in which the former Georgia Tech star played college baseball.
20. Michael Saunders, OF: There’s not much happening with Saunders (publicly, anyway), though Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported Sunday that the Orioles are open to inking him to a one-year contract.
21. Mike Napoli, 1B/DH: Napoli’s done in Cleveland, which upgraded over him with Encarnacion, but the Rangers are hot on his trail. The 35-year-old has already been a Ranger twice – from 2011-12 and for 35 games in 2015. The Orioles, who are coming up a lot in this update, have joined the mix, too.
23. Greg Holland, RP: Nothing new to report on Holland, who’s the most proven closer remaining in free agency. The problem is that the former late-game ace with the Royals missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2015.
24. Travis Wood, SP/RP: Wood was a starter from 2010-14 and could conceivably sign somewhere as a rotation option, though he spent the previous two seasons as mostly a reliever with the Cubs. The Blue Jays, who need left-handed bullpen help in the wake of Brett Cecil‘s departure, are now in on the 29-year-old Wood.
25. Neftali Feliz, RP: Aside from Winter Meetings connections to the Nationals and Marlins, Feliz’s market has been slow to develop this offseason. Closer-needy Washington continues to look like a fit after losing out on Kenley Jansen, while Miami’s bullpen now appears set thanks to the additions of Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Feliz, a longtime Ranger, has 99 saves to his name and is coming off a 29-hold season with the Pirates. All told, the 28-year-old posted a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings, making Feliz an effective buy-low player for a Bucs team that secured him with a modest guarantee ($3.9MM) last January.
30. Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: Tampa Bay is seemingly the only team with Moss on its radar. Given the quantity of similar players on the market, Moss might have to continue to wait for a deal to come along. The 33-year-old impressed with 28 homers and a .259 ISO in 464 plate appearances with St. Louis last season, but his overall line (.225/.300/.484) lagged on account of a .191/.248/.392 showing after the All-Star break.
Poll: Dubious December Decisions
With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.
Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:
Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).
If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.
Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.
Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Which is the most questionable December transaction?
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Nationals trade a haul for Adam Eaton 50% (7,309)
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Rockies sign Ian Desmond 33% (4,867)
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Yankees bring back Aroldis Chapman 13% (1,916)
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Other 4% (522)
Total votes: 14,614
Orioles Rumors: Trumbo, Carter, Alvarez, Saunders, Wieters
The latest from Baltimore, courtesy of Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com:
- The Orioles’ reported interest in free agent first baseman Chris Carter is at least somewhat “exaggerated,” according to Kubatko, who does note that adding him or re-signing fellow designated hitter type Pedro Alvarez is possible. The team’s focus is still on re-signing Mark Trumbo, even though it pulled its offer to him off the table last week, and will only turn to Carter, Alvarez or another slugger if he goes elsewhere. Unlike Trumbo, who figures to land a multiyear pact, either Carter or Alvarez would likely have to take a one-year deal to end up with the Orioles. Alvarez did that last offseason with Baltimore, which inked him to a pact featuring a guaranteed $5.75MM in March. The lefty-swinging 29-year-old went on to slash .249/.322/.504 with 22 homers in 376 plate appearances. If Alvarez returns to the Orioles for a second go-around, it seems he’d share the DH spot with the right-handed Trey Mancini.
- Given their corner outfield need, the O’s are still interested in free agent Michael Saunders – to whom they were linked at the Winter Meetings – but they’d prefer him on a one-year contract, Kubatko writes. Health has been an issue in the past with Saunders, who missed a combined 237 games from 2014-15, but he appeared in a career-high 140 contests last season as a Blue Jay and batted an above-average .253/.338/.478 with 24 homers in 558 PAs.
- As expected, the Orioles’ signing of catcher Welington Castillo essentially closed the door on Matt Wieters‘ lengthy tenure with the organization, per Kubatko. The O’s were neither willing to meet agent Scott Boras’ demands nor wait around until the new year, when Wieters is likely to sign, to settle their situation behind the plate. They’ll now go with Castillo and Caleb Joseph in the short term as they await the arrival of big-hitting prospect Chance Sisco.
Quick Hits: Stottlemyre, Rockies, Wieters, Rangers, Suspensions
Longtime Yankees right-hander and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre was “fighting for his life” earlier Saturday, but the 75-year-old is now “doing much better,” his wife, Jean, told John Harper of the New York Daily News. “We saw a big turnaround with Mel over the last 24 hours. He’s not in a life-threatening situation right now,” she continued. “It’s not the cancer. It was that he got sick from the chemo medicine. He was given anti-biotics to fight infection and he’s responded well.” Stottlemyre was diagnosed with multiple myeloma in 1999, which he fought off before it returned in 2011. We at MLBTR will continue to hope for the best for the five-time All-Star and five-time World Series champion.
More from around the majors:
- It’s unknown whether the Rockies are interested in free agent catcher Matt Wieters, but Jim Bowden of ESPN (Insider required) argues that signing him could push the team into the playoffs. Meanwhile, for Wieters, taking a one-year deal with Colorado and playing half his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field would perhaps enable him to rebound offensively and score a richer contract next offseason, posits Bowden. Long a competent offensive catcher, Wieters batted just .243/.302/.409 in 464 plate appearances last season. The Rockies have far less proven catchers in Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, though the former thrived as a pitch framer in 2016 (unlike Wieters) and the latter raked at the Triple-A level.
- If the Rangers’ quiet approach to free agency this winter continues, it could benefit center fielder Delino DeShields, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. After an encouraging rookie year in 2015, DeShields was a colossal disappointment last season (.209/.275/.313 in 203 PAs) and spent significant time at Triple-A Round Rock as a result. While Carlos Gomez is slated to start in center field for the Rangers next year, a strong spring showing from DeShields could change that, suggests Sullivan. If DeShields reclaims center, Gomez and Nomar Mazara would occupy the corners, and Shin-Soo Choo would become the team’s full-time designated hitter. “My offseason program last year was a little different than this year. This year I’m more focused on being more explosive and getting my mobility back,” DeShields revealed.
- The commissioner’s office announced drug-related suspensions for five minor leaguers earlier this week, according to Vince Lara-Cinisomo of Baseball America: Red Sox catcher Jake Romanski (amphetamine), Astros right-hander Brendan McCurry (methamphetamine), Indians righty Dakody Clemmer (drug of abuse), Royals righty Arnaldo Hernandez (methamphetamine) and free agent righty Mario Alcantara each received 50-game bans. Clemmer, a 19th-round selection last June, is the most recent draft pick of the group. Romanski (14th round, 2013) and McCurry (22nd round, 2014) were also major league picks. McCurry has reached the most advanced level of the quintet, as he threw 42 1/3 innings at Triple-A last season. The 24-year-old recorded a 3.83 ERA, 9.35 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 during that stretch.