Yasiel Puig Will Not Opt Into Arbitration
Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig has elected to keep his guarantee over the following two seasons rather than opting into arbitration, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That’s the opposite choice from that made yesterday by White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, who faced a similar — but hardly identical — situation.
In both cases, the decision was fundamentally one of risk and reward in earnings. Neither player had the right to take action that would have shortened the control rights of their respective teams. But both had to weigh whether to retain the multi-year guarantees in their contracts, or instead seek potentially higher paydays in arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes laid out the essential factors in this post, pertaining to Abreu, and you’ll want to read that post to understand them. In Puig’s case, his original free agent deal provides that he’ll earn $6.5MM this year and $7.5MM next. He remains controllable via arbitration so long as he lacks the service time for traditional free agency — unlike some international players, whose deals provide for early releases — so he was set to be arb-eligible for the 2019 season regardless.
The question, then, was whether he was better off taking that two-year, $13MM guarantee or entering the wilds of arbitration. With his numbers on the decline over the last two seasons, there’s no chance he’d rate as a $6.5MM first-year arb earner. But because players typically don’t have their salaries trimmed in arbitration, his already-high earning level gives him a big earning minimum for 2017 — which also would have provided a nice base from which to work in playing his way toward a raise for 2018.
So, what might Puig have earned? If you divide his $12MM signing bonus over the seven seasons of his deal, and add it to his $5.5MM salary from 2016, he’d have a baseline of just over $7.2MM. With a net-present-value adjustment on the bonus, that could go to approximately $7.5MM, with the potential to argue for even more by pushing a theory that the arb opt-in reduces the length of the deal (thus boosting the share of the signing bonus assignable to his 2016 salary, increasing the floor).
That all sounds like gravy, but there are risks, too. The CBA is not clear on precisely how to make these calculations, so that’d all have to be argued over in arb. And there are examples of players — most recently, Leonys Martin — who suffered salary drops in arbitration from their prior years’ marks. And then there’s the fact that parting with the guarantee would’ve left Puig’s salary for 2018 dependent upon his performance in the year to come, with a non-tender a possibility if things go poorly.
All told, taking the sure $13MM isn’t the upside play. But many players accept two or three-year, arb-only extensions that sacrifice some earning ceiling in exchange for security. It’s arguable that Puig didn’t have much to lose, but his mediocre 2016 season may have left him unsure of taking the risks of trying to maximize his earning power through the arbitration process.
East Notes: Holland, Encarnacion, Sale, Reddick, Bruce
The Red Sox are one of the most aggressive pursuers of free agent reliever Greg Holland, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. But there are multiple other organizations that have keen interest in the veteran hurler, who is looking to return following Tommy John surgery. Boston, of course, wouldn’t be able to offer Holland much of a path toward a closing job; presumably, he’d be expected to serve in a set-up capacity in front of Craig Kimbrel. Whether or not other organizations would hand Holland the ninth — or, perhaps, at least provide a chance for him to get there at some point — isn’t known, and it’s also not clear to what extent that really matters in his decisionmaking process.
- There are numerous opportunities for the Red Sox to consider this winter — with free agent Edwin Encarnacion, perhaps, being the most intriguing. Bradford reports that the organization has yet to engage Encarnacion’s camp in earnest, however, and certainly the public signals given by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggest that he’s not a top target. That could be posturing, or a nod to the still-uncertain CBA talks, but Bradford argues that Boston ought to be in on Encarnacion.
- The Nationals have spoken to the White Sox about ace lefty Chris Sale, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But Chicago has not undertaken serious talks with any clubs about Sale to this point, he adds. While it’s certainly reasonable to think that the Nats would be interested in knowing what it might take to add the talented southpaw, it seems at this point there’s no reason to view the chatter as more than due diligence.
- The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are looking for a lefty outfield bat and are exploring options in both trade and free agency, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Josh Reddick is one possible target, per the report, and Toronto has also chatted with the Mets about Jay Bruce — who, perhaps, would be shopped if New York were to add a certain, significant free agent.
Joe Thatcher Retires
Veteran lefty Joe Thatcher is calling it quits after a 13-year professional career, Pedro Velazco of the Kokomo Tribune reports. He says that he is looking forward to remaining involved in the game by helping young ballplayers in his hometown of Kokomo, Indiana.
Thatcher, 35, worked parts of nine seasons in the majors, throwing 260 2/3 total innings — the bulk of them with the Padres. He ended with a quality stat line, compiling a 3.38 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
Though he was utilized primarily as a lefty specialist, and held opposing southpaw hitters to a .232/.298/.348 slash line, Thatcher proved useful enough against right-handed opposition, too. Ultimately, he faced exactly as many batters from each side (561) in the bigs. Thatcher’s strong K numbers came against lefties — 176 fell victim — but he kept opposite-handed hitters to a palatable .278/.346/.374 batting line.
Thatcher wasn’t drafted after finishing his collegiate career at Indiana State, but caught on in independent ball and got an opportunity in the Brewers organization. He was traded to the Padres in a deadline deal that sent reliever Scott Linebrink to Milwaukee. Later, he’d be the veteran changing hands in the summer. In 2013, he was swapped to the Diamondbacks for Ian Kennedy and then was moved on to the Angels the following year.
Thatcher joined the Astros as a minor league free agent for the 2015 campaign, making the roster and providing the team with 43 appearances but working only 22 2/3 innings. While he helped Houston in what proved to be a playoff year, Thatcher lost his spot in July. He never ended up playing in the postseason, though he did spend time in 2016 with three organizations — the Cubs, Indians, and Dodgers — that played rather notable roles in the postseason this year.
Though he didn’t quite make it back to the majors in his final season of pro ball, Thatcher says he has no regrets. With a family at home, the Triple-A lifestyle no longer held appeal. “I’m at peace with the decision,” he said. “I’m proud of what I’ve done. I played pro baseball for 13 years but I’m ready to try something different and move on with the next chapter in my life.”
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/14/16
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Outfielder Shane Robinson and righty Cory Rasmus cleared outright waivers and were sent to Triple-A by the Angels, the club announced. The 32-year-old Robinson, a seven-year MLB veteran, struggled badly last year in his time in the majors but displayed his typical high-OBP bat in the upper minors. The 29-year-old Rasmus, meanwhile, worked to a 5.84 ERA in 24 2/3 frames with the Halos, posting 17 strikeouts against 16 walks.
- The Braves have agreed to a minor league deal with utilityman Colin Walsh, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). Walsh, 27, struggled in limited major league action last year with the Brewers after being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Though he displayed his trademark plate discipline, taking 15 walks in 63 plate appearances, he also racked up 22 strikeouts and managed only four base knocks. Upon returning to the Athletics after losing his major league roster spot in Milwaukee, Walsh put up a .259/.384/.388 batting line in 245 plate appearances at Triple-A.
- Matt Duffy has signed on with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, Cotillo also reports on Twitter. Not to be confused with the other infielder of the same name — who was traded this summer from the Giants to the Rays — the 27-year-old saw brief MLB action in each of the last two years with the Astros and played most recently for the Rangers. Duffy had impressed at Triple-A in 2015, but struggled to a .229/.297/.387 slash in 444 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors in the 2016 campaign.
- Right-hander Casey Lawrence will return to the Blue Jays on a minor league deal that includes a Spring Training invite, the club announced. Lawrence, who just turned 29, has spent his entire professional career with the Toronto organization but has yet to crack the big leagues. Working as a starter last year, splitting 162 frames about evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he pitched to a 4.17 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9.
Corey Seager, Michael Fulmer Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Corey Seager of the Dodgers and Michael Fulmer of the Tigers have been named the Rookies of the Year in their respective leagues by the Baseball Writers Association of America.
Seager followed Kris Bryant in taking the National League RoY award by a unanimous vote. The only question with his candidacy is whether the trophy will be joined on his shelf by a 2016 N.L Most Valuable Player award. (Bryant stands as perhaps his strongest competition for that top honor.)
There were quality competitors, though. The Nationals’ Trea Turner might’ve made things interesting had he played at the major league level for the entire season — and managed to sustain his partial-season excellence for the long haul. As it turned out, he edged Dodgers hurler Kenta Maeda for second place. Three hurlers — Jon Gray of the Rockies, Steven Matz of the Mets, and Seung-hwan Oh of the Cardinals — received one third-place vote apiece.
The 22-year-old Seager had already taken the game by storm last year, but his 27-game run didn’t use up his rookie eligibility. He was great from start to finish in 2016, compiling a .308/.365/.512 batting line and knocking 26 long balls over 687 plate appearances. And he did all that at the plate while providing quality defense at shortstop, making him one of the game’s most valuable performers (and, given his cheap control, one of its top assets).
Things were a bit tighter on the American League side. Fulmer seemed to be running away with things before Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez emerged late in the year. Like Turner, he was just too late to make up the ground in the award hunt — but that doesn’t dampen the enthusiasm for his future. Indians outfielder Tyler Naquin came in third, with Astros hurler Chris Devenski landing in fourth.
Fulmer enjoyed a breakout campaign in his first major league action. The 23-year-old ran up 159 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 7.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. For a Detroit organization that is looking to get younger and add assets with greater control, Fulmer — who came over in the 2015 deadline deal that sent Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets — is a cornerstone.
2016-17 Offseason Outlook Series
The MLBTR staff has been hard at work on our annual Offseason Outlook series. This post will be updated to include links to all the completed articles, and will be available under MLBTR Features on the right-hand sidebar on the desktop version of the site.
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
NL West Notes: D-Backs, Giants Pen, Kendrick, Dodgers, Holliday, Pads
The Diamondbacks expect to enter 2017 with approximately the same payroll level that they carried last year, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). With about $60MM in obligations and another $30MM or so in projected arbitration salaries, it wouldn’t appear that Arizona will have a lot of free cash to work with this winter after opening 2016 with just under $100MM on the books. While it’s always possible that trades could shift things around, indications from the front office are that players such as Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas aren’t likely to be moved. All said, then, the odds appear to favor a fairly quiet approach to the free agent market from the D-Backs.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- The Giants feel confident they will land one of the three major closers available in free agency this winter, a club official told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). We’ve already heard the team linked to Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon (who they met with today), though as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the organization is considering alternatives as well. GM Bobby Evans called rehabbing righty Greg Holland a “very good option,” and there are always trade routes to consider. But the expectation has long been that San Francisco would go shopping on the open market to address the ninth inning, and the club seems a strong favorite to land one of those premium arms.
- Meanwhile, it’s rather unlikely that the Giants will make a splash at third base, Shea further reports. Evans left little doubt as to how the club sees things after already acquiring Eduardo Nunez over the summer. “You try to stay nimble and flexible,” Evans said. “If something comes along, you can always adjust. We’re very comfortable with Nuñez. He’s our third baseman.”
- Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi addressed his club’s decision today to ship Howie Kendrick to the Phillies, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. “Financial flexibility” was a motivating factor, he said, and the organization also liked the idea of adding Darin Ruf — who Zaidi said was pursued over the summer. Addressing second base, which Kendrick could conceivably have played, Zaidi noted that the Dodgers could go with players already on hand — Enrique Hernandez, Micah Johnson, and Chris Taylor — but added that there’s ample time “to bring in a more experienced player.” Free agent Chase Utley still seems an option, though Zaidi did not discuss him specifically, and there are certainly a variety of interesting trade candidates that might be considered. Kendrick had occupied left field in 2016 for Los Angeles, and his departure leaves an opening there, but Zaidi said that’s “not a position we are targeting right now.” He expressed confidence in existing players such as Andre Ethier, Andrew Toles, Trayce Thompson and Scott Van Slyke in the corner outfield. Of course, right field is also up for grabs, though the team could yet rely on Yasiel Puig along with those other options.
- The idea of the Rockies bringing back Matt Holliday may not be an unreasonable one, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. The veteran slugger has expressed interest in the concept, and Saunders notes that Holliday could see time both at first and in the outfield — which currently features three left-handed hitters.
- The Padres will look to make a few targeted veteran additions this winter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently explored. GM A.J. Preller spoke of finding one or two “guys who have good makeup, guys who are in it for the team, guys who are willing to work, guys who aren’t selfish.” That could be outfielder Jon Jay, who the team is still interested in. Preller spoke highly of the versatile outfielder, but noted that preserving opportunities for a variety of younger players ill be a consideration “as we’re talking to Jon and determining an offer, the term and length.” Shortstop is perhaps a greater priority, with Preller noting that it’s “still an area we’re looking to address.” The team still isn’t sure whether Luis Sardinas is prepared to be an everyday player, Preller suggested. Jose Rondon will also receive consideration, but the organization certainly seems open to pursuing alternatives via trade or free agency.
AL Notes: Red Sox, Athletics, Tigers
It seems increasingly unlikely that the Red Sox will utilize a full-time DH, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. “We’re not looking to have just a DH,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “I think really in today’s game the only way you really do that is to have somebody like David Ortiz and most of the time you really prefer to have some flexibility. It’s not to say somebody won’t settle in most of the time, but your goal is to use the flexibility of the players at this point. We’ll see how that all fits in.” That does leave open the possibility of a regular, of course, and some players who’d profile as a designated hitter — such as big-budget free agent Edwin Encarnacion (who has spent plenty of time recently at first) or the aging Carlos Beltran (who also plays the outfield) — could spend at least some time in the field, possibly allowing the club to slot Hanley Ramirez or others in the hitter-only hole on occasion. It is fair to wonder, too, whether any changes to the CBA — an increased luxury tax floor, if not also the addition of an active roster spot — might change the team’s thinking.
Here’s more from Boston and the rest of the American League:
- Even if the offseason is relatively quiet from an acquisition standpoint, the Red Sox may be in a position to explore some extensions, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. For Boston, the three obvious candidates are surely shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. None figure to come cheap, particularly as their service clocks and stat lines have continued to build, but Britton provides some quotes from rival executives discussing the benefits and drawbacks of pursuing longer-term contracts. Scott Boras, who reps Bogaerts and Bradley, indicated that talks thus far have involved only their pending arbitration cases, and Britton says that the club has yet to seriously consider deals. But it’ll certainly be interesting to see whether discussions take place in earnest later in the offseason.
- The Red Sox have hired Gary DiSarcina as their new bench coach to replace the outgoing Torey Lovullo, as Gerry Callahan of WEEI first reported (story via WEEI.com). A Massachusetts native, DiSarcina has previously skippered Boston’s Triple-A affiliate and has most recently been a part of the Angels’ coaching staff.
- There’s still quite a lot to be sorted out for the Athletics this winter, and we don’t have a ton to go on in assessing the organization’s direction. But there are a pair of pieces worth looking into for fans looking for the sense of those who follow the team most closely. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle takes stock of the free agent outfield options, citing reunions with Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss as unlikely. But the organization may look to take a shot on KBO star Eric Thames, she says, while Carlos Gomez and perhaps even Austin Jackson representing possibilities in center. Meanwhile, with some chatter surrounding key veterans Sonny Grey, Steven Vogt, and Sean Doolittle, Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com examines the possibility of one or more significant swaps. He suggests that Doolittle, an affordable but oft-injured power lefty, could be the most likely of that trio to change hands.
- With the Tigers gauging trade interest in much of their roster, it’s mostly guesswork at this point as to who’s drawing the kind of interest that could lead to a deal. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets that the team has drawn hits on all of its biggest names, including second baseman Ian Kinsler, as well as underperforming starters Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey. We’ve yet to hear much in the way of clear connections between Detroit and rival organizations, though. The Dodgers think Kinsler would fit nicely in L.A., per a tweet from Jon Morosi, but the teams did not discuss the matter at the GM Meetings.
Colin Rea Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Padres righty Colin Rea underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). Rea had been attempting to avoid the surgery with a platelet-rich plasma treatment and rehab, but the decision was made to go ahead after he felt discomfort after a throwing session.
There had increasingly been hope that Rea would be able to return for the start of 2017, but the best case now is for him to make it back for the 2018 campaign. Of course, that would have been the expectation had he gone under the knife earlier, though perhaps now there’s a bit less wiggle room in his forthcoming rehab. Initial reports were that he was destined for a replacement of his ulnar collateral ligament in the middle of the season, but that was re-considered — influenced, perhaps, by the progress shown by Angels righty Garrett Richards in a non-surgical approach.
The 26-year-old’s situation was rather more complicated than that, of course. As has been discussed at length, Rea was sent by the Padres to the Marlins at the trade deadline in a multi-player pact. But he exited his first outing in Miami with elbow issues, teeing off a scandal of sorts that led to him being shipped back to the Padres. In related proceedings arising out of San Diego’s medical practices, club GM A.J. Preller ultimately served a thirty-game suspension for reporting issues that the organization has pledged to remedy.
Without Rea, the Padres’ rotation needs are more evident than ever. San Diego already seemed a likely landing spot for an arm or two. Without expectations of contention, expectations are that the club may look into some riskier, higher-upside assets on this winter’s player acquisition market.
Rea is set to reach arbitration eligibility before the 2019 season, so he’ll have a chance to post a platform year before hitting the arb cycle. Certainly, his earning opportunity will be limited by the inability to rack up innings in the second half of 2016 and all of 2017. The Padres will hope that he can return to health and improve upon the 4.69 ERA he posted over his first 134 1/3 major league frames.
Angels Designate Rafael Ortega
The Angels have designated outfielder Rafael Ortega for assignment, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. His roster spot will go to the just-signed Jesse Chavez.
Ortega, 25, got his first real audition last year for Los Angeles, but didn’t hit much at all. Over 201 plate appearances, he managed only a .232/.283/.292 batting line with a single home run and eight steals. On the positive side, Ortega struck out only 23 times against his 13 walks, but obviously he wasn’t able to translate that contact into production.
With Ortega possibly on his way out — and obviously not a major part of the team’s plans regardless — the need for a left-handed-hitting bench piece seems apparent. The switch-hitting Kaleb Cowart could take such a spot in a utility role, and Ji-Man Choi is on hand as a defensively-limited possibility, but it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Angels look to add a more established piece.