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The Opener: Lynn, Yamamoto, MLBTR Chat

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As the offseason continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to watch for today:

1. Lance Lynn to finalize deal with Cardinals:

Veteran starter Lance Lynn will take his physical today (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and barring any setbacks, he will officially rejoin the Cardinals, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft. Following the least productive season of his 12-year major league tenure, it’s no surprise that Lynn wanted to return to the homer-suppressing ballpark where he saw so much success in the early days of his career. The Cardinals, meanwhile, desperately needed to bolster their starting rotation, and signing Lynn is the first step in that direction. Other names the team has been linked to include Sonny Gray,  Jordan Montgomery (another former Cardinal), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted:

As of 7:00 am CT this morning, MLB clubs can begin negotiations with Yamamoto, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday. The posting window will last 45 days, which means it will expire at 4:00 pm CT on January 4. Now that teams can begin discussions with the NPB superstar, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests that the other top arms remaining on the market, namely Montgomery, Gray, and Blake Snell, could wait until Yamamoto signs before agreeing to deals of their own. Yamamoto is expected to sign for more guaranteed money than any other pitcher (aside from Shohei Ohtani) this winter, so it stands to reason that Montgomery, Gray, and Snell would like to wait for him to set the market. The Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals are just some of the many teams that have been linked to the star pitcher, who will not turn 26 until next August.

3. MLBTR Chat today

Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board this week – Aaron Nola and Reynaldo López – and with Yamamoto officially on the market, it looks like the hot stove is finally starting to heat up. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1:00 pm CT to take questions about free agent signings, potential trades, and more. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and read a transcript once the chat is complete.

The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot

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As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:

1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola

The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.

While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week

Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.

Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.

3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed

The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.

Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles, Tanner Rainey

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Victor Robles and right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, the team announced. Robles, 26, was eligible for his final year of arbitration, while Rainey, 30, will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter.

Rainey will earn $1.5MM in 2024 (per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post), which doesn’t come as any surprise; he made the same salary this past season in a year almost completely lost to injury, and arbitration-eligible players rarely receive raises after lost seasons. No dollar value has been reported for Robles, although he was projected to earn $2.7MM in arbitration. The center fielder made $2.325MM last year, and the Nationals turned down a $3.3MM club option for his services in 2024. His new deal most likely falls somewhere in between those two figures.

Around the end of the regular season, Washington agreed to a contract with veteran utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, who was eligible for his second year of arbitration. The team now has four players who could still go to arbitration this winter: outfielder Lane Thomas, closer Kyle Finnegan, set-up man Hunter Harvey, and former top prospect Luis Garcia. The Nationals have already DFA’d several arb-eligible players ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 17, including first baseman Dominic Smith, right-handed reliever Victor Arano, and utility player Michael Chavis.

Marlins Select Anthony Maldonado, Victor Mesa Jr.

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The Marlins selected the contracts of Anthony Maldonado and Victor Mesa Jr. ahead of the Rule 5 deadline, the team announced to reporters (including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). These moves leave the team with three open spots remaining on the 40-man roster.

Maldonado, 25, could pitch for Miami at some point next season. The right-handed reliever had a strong year at Triple-A in 2023, pitching 46 innings with a 1.76 ERA, nine saves, and a 39.4% strikeout rate. Those are promising numbers indeed, although it’s much harder to miss bats in the majors than it is at Triple-A, so Maldonado still has his work cut out for him to prove that he’s ready for a bigger role. Nonetheless, the Marlins clearly like what they have seen enough to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

Mesa, 22, isn’t as close to being ready for the majors, but with his quick legs and strong defense in center field, another club certainly could’ve picked him up and stashed him on their active roster in 2024. Miami’s No. 6 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, his glove and contact skills give him a high floor, while his power potential gives him a high ceiling, especially if he can stick in center field as he ages.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Marlins chose not to protect Troy Johnston. The 26-year-old lefty batter had a phenomenal season in 2023, batting .307 and slugging 26 home runs in 134 games between Double- and Triple-A. However, given his age and position – he is a first baseman who can cover an outfield corner in a pinch – Johnston really needs to hit in order to stick on a major league roster. That’s precisely what he did last season, but he has yet to prove he can do so consistently at the highest level. Moreover, the Marlins already have Josh Bell plugged in at first base, and they’re hoping to bring back Jorge Soler at DH. Evidently, they decided they did not have room for Johnston on the major league roster.

Red Sox Select Wikelman Gonzalez, Luis Perales

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Just ahead of the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft, the Red Sox announced that they have selected the contracts of two right-handed pitchers: Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales. The club’s 40-man roster now sits at 39.

Gonzalez, 21, is the No. 9 prospect in the Red Sox system and the top-ranked pitcher, per MLB Pipeline. The righty is coming off a strong 2023 campaign in which he pitched to a 3.96 ERA in 25 starts between High-A and Double-A. He looked particularly impressive after his midseason promotion, posting a 2.42 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings pitched. Gonzalez won’t turn 22 until March, so it seems unlikely he’ll contribute to the big league team in 2024. Still, given his performance last season, it’s not hard to understand why Boston chose to protect him.

MLB Pipeline has Perales, 20, ranked one spot below Gonzalez, making him the No. 10 prospect in the Red Sox organization. The hard-throwing righty had a strong season of his own in 2023, pitching to a 3.91 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 21 starts between Low-A Salem and High-A Greenville. Perales is even less likely to play for the MLB club this coming season, but it is equally clear to see why the Red Sox made sure to keep him around.

In a slightly more surprising move, Boston chose not to protect Shane Drohan following his disappointing performance in 2023. The southpaw ranks 18th among Red Sox prospects on MLB Pipeline, but the evaluators at FanGraphs (8th) and Baseball America (9th) were more optimistic about the 24-year-old starter on their latest prospect lists. What’s more, Drohan’s age and experience make him a much more likely target for other teams in the Rule 5 draft. He made 21 appearances (19 starts) at Triple-A last season, and although the results weren’t great (6.47 ERA, 6.55 FIP), his numbers from Double-A (2.17 ERA in 11 starts from 2022-23) are indicative of the pitcher he could someday become.

Twins Select Emmanuel Rodríguez, Austin Martin

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The Twins have selected outfielder Emmanuel Rodríguez and utility player Austin Martin to the 40-man roster just ahead of the 5:00 pm CT Rule 5 deadline, the team revealed (as reported by several sources, including Bobby Nightengale of the StarTribune). These moves bring the 40-man roster up to 38 players.

Rodríguez, 20, is highly unlikely to appear in the majors this coming season, but evidently, the Twins believe the promising young outfielder is too talented to leave unprotected. After missing most of the 2022 season with a knee injury, the slugging center fielder came back strong in 2023, hitting 13 doubles, 9 triples, and 16 home runs, good for a 145 wRC+ at High-A. On top of that, he showed off his speed, stealing 20 bases, and his strong arm, recording seven outfield assists.

Martin, 24, is not quite as highly-regarded a prospect as Rodríguez, but he is more likely to contribute at the major league level in 2024, and thus, the team saw reason to protect him from the draft. A versatile defender, Martin is primarily a shortstop but also has experience playing all three outfield positions. He is also a quick runner and a disciplined hitter, as demonstrated by his 19 stolen bases, 39 walks, and only 46 strikeouts last season in 67 games. His offensive ceiling is limited by his lack of power, but he has the skills to contribute off the bench for a big league team.

Earlier this month, the Twins added 24-year-old infielder Yunior Severino and 24-year-old catcher Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster, preventing them from reaching minor league free agency and protecting them from the Rule 5 Draft. Notable names that were not protected include 26-year-old outfielder DaShawn Keirsey, 25-year-old utility player Anthony Prato, and 27-year-old utility player Michael Helman.

Reds Select Rece Hinds, Christian Roa, Jacob Hurtubise

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The Reds announced that they have added three players to their 40-man roster ahead of the 5:00 pm CT Rule 5 deadline: outfielder Rece Hinds, right-hander Christian Roa, and outfielder Jacob Hurtubise. Their 40-man is now full.

Hinds, 23, is the Reds’ No. 10 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and most sources agree he’ll be ready to make his big league debut at some point in 2024. In 109 games with Double-A Chattanooga last season, he showed off his power potential, crushing 23 home runs and 58 extra-base hits. He ran well for a slugging outfielder, too, swiping 20 bags and legging out six triples. However, the righty batter also struck out in a third of his plate appearances, so he’ll need to improve his plate discipline if he wants to put his power on display at the major league level.

As for his defense, Hinds made the move from third base to the outfield in 2022, and he seems to have adjusted well. He has spent time in both corners, but his best asset is his powerful arm, so right field seems like the better fit. The Reds have a glut of talented young players all over the diamond, but there is less of a logjam in the outfield, so there should be room for Hinds if he cuts down on the strikeouts and keeps hitting bombs in the minors.

Roa, 24, struggled after his promotion to Triple-A last summer, seeing his strikeout rate fall and his home run rate rise. At the same time, the 2020 second-round pick showed off some phenomenal strikeout stuff in 2023, striking out 33.7% of batters faced in 13 starts at Double-A Chattanooga and 28.6% of batters faced in 15 games (12 starts) at Triple-A Louisville. If he can rein in the walks (16.6% walk rate across Double- and Triple-A), he could make his way to the majors at some point next season. Presumably, he will serve as rotation depth at Triple-A, something the Reds have no shortage of. In addition to Roa, the team has Lyon Richardson, Connor Phillips, Levi Stoudt, and Carson Spiers on the 40-man roster, all of whom made starts for the big league team in 2023 with limited success.

Hurtubise, 25, doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of either Hinds or Roa, but he might have been an appealing target in the Rule 5 Draft following his strong performance in 2023. In 83 games at Double-A, he slashed .306/.453/.492 with a 159 wRC+, and he kept mashing after a mid-August promotion to Triple-A, slashing .390/.537/.460 the rest of the way. While he is surely due for some significant regression, his plate discipline was genuinely impressive, and his speed is the real deal. He is primarily a corner outfielder, but he has experience in center as well, so he profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Nationals To Hire Miguel Cairo As Bench Coach

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The Nationals are set to hire Miguel Cairo as their new bench coach, as first reported by Mike Mayer of Metsmerized Online. Cairo spent the 2023 season as a minor league infield coordinator in the Mets organization.

A versatile utility man, Cairo played 17 seasons in the major leagues, fielding six different positions for nine different teams. Immediately following his retirement after the 2012 season, Cairo took a job as a special assistant in the Reds’ front office and briefly served as the team’s interim bench coach. He then moved on to the Yankees organization, working in the player development department and as a minor league infield coordinator.

Ahead of the 2021 campaign, Cairo earned his first genuine big league coaching job, joining the White Sox as Tony La Russa’s bench coach. He was promoted to acting manager for the final month of the regular season (Larussa was on medical leave), and although he interviewed for the managerial opening that winter, he was not asked to return to new skipper Pedro Grifol’s staff in 2023. Instead, he took a job as a minor league infield coordinator with the Mets, a role he had previously held during his tenure with the Yankees.

Nationals manager Dave Martinez played alongside Cairo for parts of three seasons with the Devil Rays between 1998 and 2000. According to Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports, the skipper has “always spoken highly” of his former teammate.

Cairo is the latest addition to Washington’s dugout this offseason. Last week, the team hired Gerardo Parra and Ricky Gutierrez to coach first and third base, respectively. The Nationals had several holes to fill after parting with bench coach Tim Bogar, first base coach Eric Young Jr., third base coach Gary DiSarcina, and assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler at the end of the season.

Athletics Exercise Mark Kotsay’s Option For 2025

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The Athletics have exercised manager Mark Kotsay’s contract option for the 2025 season, the team announced. This gives the skipper some job security, as he now knows he won’t enter the 2024 campaign a lame duck.

Earlier this offseason, the Athletics gave Kotsay permission to interview for the Mets’ managerial opening. He was one of the last candidates they interviewed, but he was reportedly removed from consideration before the Mets made their final decision (per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic).

Kotsay played 17 MLB seasons, including four with the A’s. Following his retirement, he spent a brief stint as the Padres hitting coach, before he returned to Oakland and joined then-manager Bob Melvin’s staff in 2016. Over six seasons, he served as bench coach, quality control coach, and third base coach. When Melvin left for his own short stint with the Padres in 2022, Kotsay took over as manager, signing a three-year deal with a team option for 2025. That option has now been picked up.

Evidently, the Athletics are happy with Kotsay’s performance over the last two seasons. While the team has a .340 winning percentage under his leadership, a manager can only do so much with the roster he’s given.

“Mark’s leadership, character, and integrity have been a hallmark of his time with the A’s; first as a player and a coach, and, for the last two years, as our manager,” said general manager David Forst (per MLB.com). “Picking up his option was an obvious decision to make for our club, and I look forward to having him lead the A’s on the field through 2025 and hopefully beyond.”

Yankees Offer Hitting Coach Position To James Rowson

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The Yankees have offered James Rowson the job of hitting coach on Aaron Boone’s staff, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He is expected to accept the position.

Rowson spent six years as a minor league hitting coordinator in the Yankees organization before leaving for the Cubs in 2012, where he briefly took over as the major league hitting coach. After two years in Chicago, he returned to New York and resumed his previous role. Notably, he presided over the minor league system while Aaron Judge rose through the ranks from 2014-16. Rowson left for greener pastures again in 2017, spending the next year three years as hitting coach for the Twins. After that, he was the Marlins bench coach from 2020-22, and most recently, the 47-year-old spent the 2023 campaign as the assistant hitting coach for the Tigers.

Given his years of experience with the Yankees and his time as a hitting coach around the league, Rowson seems like a perfectly qualified and logical hire. Indeed, he makes particular sense considering the Yankees are looking for a hitting coach who can implement a “top-down” approach throughout the organization (per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic). In other words, the team is looking for someone who can develop certain universal practices and philosophies and spread those across all levels of the minor league system. Who better for such a task than the team’s long-time minor league hitting coordinator?

That said, Rowson represents a complete 180-degree turn from Sean Casey, the hitting coach he will be replacing. Casey took the job with no previous coaching experience but significant playing experience; across 12 MLB seasons, he hit .302 with an .814 OPS in over 5,000 career plate appearances. According to Kuty, the Yankees liked Casey for his on-field experience, and indeed, they’re looking for a similarly experienced candidate to replace newly-hired Mets manager Carlos Mendoza as bench coach. Rowson never made it to the major leagues, playing just three seasons in the low minors and one in the independent Heartland League. His experience comes from the dugout, not the batter’s box.

Should Rowson accept the job, he will become the Yankees’ fourth hitting coach in as many years. Marcus Thames, the White Sox’s new hitting coach, had the job until 2021, while Dillon Lawson took over in 2022 and held the role until he was unceremoniously fired ahead of the All-Star Break this past season. Casey replaced Lawson for the remainder of the 2023 campaign, but he stepped down this winter to spend more time with his daughters. 

In other Yankees news, the team is reportedly considering bringing back Frankie Montas for another go in 2024, per Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While his tenure with New York was marred by injury, Montas was an effective starting pitcher during his time in Oakland, pitching to a 3.50 ERA in 89 career starts for the Athletics. Montas could represent an intriguing buy-low candidate for the Yankees, especially since the team is already familiar with his stuff and medical status.

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