Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

J.D. Martinez Turned Down Offer From Giants

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2024 at 10:57pm CDT

6:52pm: According to NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic, the Giants made an offer to Martinez while they were already in talks with Soler and Martinez’s camp made a counteroffer that San Francisco brass “weren’t comfortable with.” The specifics of both the club’s offer to Martinez and Martinez’s counteroffer remain unclear, though Pavlovic’s report seems to indicate that Martinez’s apparent lack of interest in San Francisco may have had more to do with the deal’s value than soft factors such as geography or club competitiveness.

12:04pm: The Giants made J.D. Martinez a contract offer at some point this offseason prior to the team’s deal with Jorge Soler, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports. Martinez rejected the offer because he “didn’t want to go there,” Heyman writes, which could indicate any number of concerns (roster fit, playing time, geography, etc.) beyond perhaps any misgivings about the value or nature of the deal the Giants put on the table.

It is safe to assume that San Francisco didn’t offer Martinez anything akin to the three years and $42MM that Soler received, given that Martinez is entering his age-36 season and is four and a half years older than Soler. That said, the two players have similar profiles as right-handed hitters with defensive limitations in the field. Martinez is essentially a DH-only player at this point in his career, and the bulk of Soler’s time in the Marlins’ 2023 lineup was spent as a designated hitter.

Though Martinez has had more streakiness and variance in his performance as he has aged, he has still been the more consistent hitter than the notoriously inconsistent Soler. Both players were All-Stars and 33-homer hitters in 2023 and had interestingly similar numbers, as Martinez had a 135 wRC+ while hitting .271/.321/.572 in 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers and Soler hit .250/.341/.512 over 580 PA with Miami. Martinez’s playing time was limited by groin and back problems, and Soler had much better walk and strikeout rates than Martinez, even if Soler’s 24.3 K% was still below average.

Soler and Martinez weren’t far apart on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, as Soler was ranked 16th and Martinez 20th. The age gap was one of the determining factors in the differing rankings, and we predicted a smaller annual average value for Soler (with a three-year, $45MM projection) than Martinez (two years, $40MM). Of course, it now seems entirely possible that Martinez will end up falling behind Soler in AAV given that we’re in the last week of February and Martinez still remains unsigned.

The Blue Jays, Mets, Angels, and Diamondbacks have all been linked to Martinez’s market at various points this winter, though Toronto and Arizona have since already added other veteran bats (i.e. Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk) for the DH role and no longer seem like fits. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently broke down possibilities for Martinez’s next landing spot and listed the Mets and Angels as still the most logical destinations based on team need, even if both clubs have indicated they would prefer to use the DH spot to cycle many players through the lineup. Heyman suggested the Rangers as a possible candidate for Martinez, though Texas also has a lot of promising up-and-comers in need of at-bats.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has been generally conservative with free agent expenditures during his five-plus years in charge of San Francisco’s front office. As the Contract Tracker indicates, this winter’s signings of Jung Ho Lee and Jordan Hicks marked the first time that Zaidi signed a player to a deal of four or more years. Speculatively speaking, it seems plausible that Zaidi first checked on the possibility of signing Martinez or another known Giants target in Rhys Hoskins before agreeing to go to three years to land Soler.

From Martinez’s end, we don’t know enough about the Giants’ offer to gauge whether or not he might’ve erred in not accepting the deal, or if accepting it at some unspecified earlier point would’ve taken him off the market much earlier. However, if Martinez just wasn’t interested in playing for the Giants in particular, money might not have been the issue whatsoever.

NL Central Notes: India, Ashby, Santana, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2024 at 3:22pm CDT

Plantar fasciitis sidelined Jonathan India last summer, and the injury is still impacting the Reds infielder’s availability as Spring Training begins. Manager David Bell told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith and other reporters that India isn’t slated to appear in a game until March 7 or 8, as India’s plantar fasciitis tore during the offseason and is still causing him some discomfort. On the plus side, the tear means that India won’t need to undergo surgery on his foot, and Bell said that India is still able to take part in baseball activity as he builds up to being game-ready.

Health is just one of many uncertainties hanging over India as he begins his fourth Major League season. Already the subject of frequent trade rumors due to Cincinnati’s plethora of up-and-coming infield talent, India looks to be moving into a utility role if he remains with the Reds, as he could be playing all over the infield, at DH, and perhaps in left field.

Other items from around the NL Central…

Aaron Ashby is eager to be back after missing virtually all of the 2023 season due to arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder. Describing the procedure to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Ashby said “I essentially had some calcified muscle on my rotator cuff, and they went in there and clipped it right off. Once I got out of surgery the doctor was like, ’This was best-case scenario for you.’ It’s a minimal surgery in terms of what they did, but a shoulder surgery is a shoulder surgery, and it’s tricky at times.” The southpaw’s only game action in 2023 was seven innings of minor-league rehab work in September, but he has been making good progress in Spring Training and is hoping to win a spot in the Brewers rotation, though Rosiak notes that bullpen work could help ease Ashby back into regular activity.
Carlos Santana had interest in returning to the Pirates as a free agent this winter, with Santana telling Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he expressed this to the team when he was traded to the Brewers prior to last summer’s trade deadline. The Bucs still had some interest during the offseason even after signing Rowdy Tellez to ostensibly fill the void at first base, but Santana didn’t know why an agreement wasn’t reached. “My agent has a very good relationship with the team, but he didn’t tell me anything. I wanted to come back, but there was nothing going on,” the first baseman said. Santana instead joined the Twins on a one-year, $5.25MM deal, and the Pirates will head into 2024 with Tellez and Connor Joe as the first base platoon and Andrew McCutchen returning as the primary DH.
This could be something of a tough read for Pirates fans, but The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt and Ken Rosenthal details some of the missteps that have slowed the team’s rebuild, such as a lack of success in international signings and some instances of a disconnect between traditional baseball teachings and the more modern approach of GM Ben Cherington. However, the largest issue is naturally the team’s lack of spending under owner Bob Nutting, as there is less margin for error for Cherington’s front office when operating within a tight budget. Nesbitt and Rosenthal’s piece was published a day before the Pirates announced a five-year, $77MM extension with Mitch Keller, which is one instance of how the Bucs have been slightly more willing to spend in order to lock up young cornerstone players.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Miller, Valera, Carpenter

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2024 at 1:24pm CDT

The Twins brought back four players from the Mariners in exchange for Jorge Polanco last month, though Minnesota’s first target was right-hander Bryce Miller, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports. Miller and fellow rookie Bryan Woo were among the most sought-after trade targets of the winter, yet the Mariners weren’t eager to move either pitcher, or anyone from their crop of young and controllable starters. While Polanco fills a big need for Seattle at second base, he is only under team control through the 2025 season, so any kind of Polanco-for-Miller swap would’ve needed to be much different on Minnesota’s end to land Miller’s services.

AL East Notes: Sale, Tiedemann, Ramirez

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2024 at 9:15am CDT

The Chris Sale-for-Vaughn Grissom trade between the Braves and Red Sox caught many in baseball by surprise, including Sale himself. The veteran southpaw related in a recent appearance on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast (hat tip to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford) that being dealt “wasn’t even in the realm of possibilities. That wasn’t even a thought that crossed my mind” heading into the offseason. As Sale plainly put it, “Why would anybody want me at this point?” in the wake of multiple injury-plagued seasons.

There was also the factor of Sale’s 10-and-5 no-trade rights, so he could’ve rejected the chance to join the Braves. However, after less than a day of discussing things with his family and inner circle, Sale okayed the deal, with some Grapefruit League geography playing a major role. The Braves’ spring facility in North Port, Florida adds only roughly an hour to Sale’s commute from his home, so “I can still live my life while being part of this team in spring training. That was probably the most important thing. One hundred percent. My kids play sports. They’ve got school stuff going on.” Sale also relayed the amusing item that the first proper conversation he had with Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow after weeks of texts and “phone tag” was when Breslow let Sale know the trade was in the works.

Mariners Have Discussed Signing Matt Chapman

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2024 at 11:16pm CDT

With Matt Chapman still available as we enter late February, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that “the Mariners have discussed the possibility of” signing the free agent third baseman. It isn’t clear if these discussions could be due-diligence explorations within the front office, or whether or not president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto might have reached out to Chapman’s camp about a potential contract.

Eugenio Suarez was seemingly locked in at Seattle’s third baseman when the offseason began, yet the M’s created a vacancy at the hot corner when Suarez was traded to the Diamondbacks in November. Since Luis Urias was acquired in another trade with the Red Sox about a week before the Suarez deal, the initial expectation was that Urias could potentially take over for Suarez, yet that situation was further altered after another trade — last month’s swap with the Twins that brought Jorge Polanco to the Pacific Northwest. With Polanco now established as the new every second baseman, third base looked to be covered by Urias and Josh Rojas in a platoon, with utilityman Dylan Moore also providing more depth.

Signing Chapman would deliver yet another shakeup to the infield picture, and push Rojas, Urias, and Moore firmly into backup roles unless any got some at-bats spelling Ty France at first base. Since public defensive metrics haven’t traditionally been impressed by the glovework of France, Polanco, or shortstop J.P. Crawford, adding a multi-time Gold and Platinum Glove winner like Chapman would go a long way towards helping the Mariners’ run prevention.

There would also be an offensive upgrade, though not as much as one might imagine. Since the start of the 2021 season, Chapman has posted a 110 wRC+ over 1824 plate appearances, while Urias has a 107 wRC+ in 1219 PA and Rojas a 99 wRC+ in 1410 PA. Urias and Rojas both hit so poorly in 2023 that it obscures their very solid numbers in the previous two years, albeit in less playing time than Chapman received as a true everyday player with the A’s and Blue Jays.

That said, Chapman’s 2023 campaign was also a mixed bag at best at the plate. He got off to a scorching start that won him the AL Player of the Month Award for April, but Chapman then hit only .205/.298/.361 over 467 PA from May 1 to the end of the regular season. A finger injury particularly hampered Chapman over the last couple of months and he ended up with a 110 wRC+ (from 17 homers and a .240/.330/.424 slash line in 581 PA), yet this shaky platform year is quite likely the reason why Chapman has lingered so long on the open market.

Chapman is also a free swinger at the plate, which would seemingly run counter to the Mariners’ offseason goal of improving the lineup’s contact hitting. Seattle’s 25.9% strikeout rate was the second highest of any team in baseball in 2023, yet Chapman has averaged a 29.9% strikeout rate since the start of the 2020 season. Chapman has generally been able to offset his strikeouts by doing a lot of damage when he did make contact, and his barrel and hard-hit ball rates were among the best in the league last year, even if his bottom-line numbers didn’t reflect the quality of his contact.

Beyond the on-field questions, there is also the more practical matter of whether the Mariners can even meet Chapman’s contract demands. It is possible Chapman and agent Scott Boras might have lowered or been willing to lower the asking price this deep into the offseason, yet if that is the case, other rumored suitors as the Giants or Cubs might still be in a better position than the M’s to take advantage, to say nothing or any other mystery teams.

The Mariners’ full purchase of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network has put some added expenses onto the organization’s books, and seemingly limited what the front office has had available to spend this offseason. Roster Resource projects Seattle for a $135MM payroll in 2024, and though Dipoto said that the Mariners were able to spend beyond their $140MM payroll from last season, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of wiggle room available.

Chapman would still require a hefty average annual value even on a shorter-term deal with opt-outs involved, and as mentioned earlier, another club might well be able to outbid Seattle within that kind of unique structure. There is also the fact that Dipoto has traditionally been much more open to trades than pricey free agent signings as a roster-building strategy, as Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract from the 2021-22 offseason is far and away the biggest deal given to a free agent in Dipoto’s tenure.

As Divish notes, the Mariners have had interest in Chapman in the past, back when the A’s were shopping the third baseman as part of their wide-ranging fire sale after the 2021 season. The Athletics reportedly wanted Noelvi Marte as part of any trade package involving Chapman, and the M’s instead held onto Marte only to eventually move him in the Luis Castillo deal at the 2022 deadline.

NL Notes: Grichuk, D’Backs, Kiermaier, Keller, Lodolo

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2024 at 10:40pm CDT

Randal Grichuk underwent surgery last month to remove bone spurs from his ankle, so the newest member of the Diamondbacks roster might not be ready to make his Arizona debut by the very start of the season. “It’s one of those things where there’s a good chance I’ll be ready for Opening Day and if not, it’s a week. In the grand scheme of things, big picture, it’s nothing to worry about,” Grichuk told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. Obviously the D’Backs weren’t concerned enough to back away from their $2MM deal with the veteran outfielder, and Grichuk could possibly be used as a designated hitter at first until he is fully ready for outfield work.

As to what the D’Backs might have left on their shopping list after a busy offseason, GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that “I think building out relief depth is probably something that we’re talking about. Pitching in general…I think from a position player standpoint, we’re probably in a spot where it’s less likely to see a clear opportunity for somebody. But we still have competitions underneath the starting roles. So we’ll see where that takes us.”

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2024 at 8:26pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

NL East Notes: Harper, Sale, Crick

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2024 at 5:54pm CDT

After his recovery from Tommy John surgery necessitated a move to first base last season, Bryce Harper took well enough to his new position that the Phillies announced in November that Harper would be their regular first baseman in 2024 and beyond. The two-time NL MVP spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) about the situation today, saying “I wanted them to know that I was on board with anything they wanted to do,” and that Harper left the decision about his position up to the club. “I said if you want me in right field, I’ll play right. If you want me at first, I’ll play first base. I think collectively, they said, first base is where we want you. I said, ’OK, I’ll do everything I can to be there,’ ” Harper said. He is now spending his Spring Training further working on what seems to be his permanent new position, noting that “I don’t think I’ll move back out to right. I don’t. But never say never.”

Harper also confirmed that he is interested in extending his contract, as agent Scott Boras stated in December. The idea caught many by surprise given that Harper still has eight seasons and $196MM remaining on his original 13-year, $330MM contract, and he’ll be turning 39 years old in October 2031. While Harper said “I haven’t really thought too much about” his contract situation, he said that “playing into my 40’s, I mean, that’s the biggest thing for me. So I want to get that done.” It remains to be seen if Harper, Boras, and the Phillies could possibly reach some kind of deal to add two (or more?) years onto Harper’s contract, yet president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has downplayed the idea of a renegotiation.

Giants Notes: Soler, Lineups, Transactions, Slater, Zaidi

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2024 at 4:23pm CDT

The Giants’ three-year, $42MM contract with Jorge Soler was finalized and announced earlier today, so Soler, manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi were now officially able to discuss the deal with the media. Melvin told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic) that Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores played a key role in helping recruit Soler, as the three players are friends. This helped lure Soler to San Francisco and the West Coast in general, as Soler’s preference was to stay on the East Coast, ideally close to his home in Miami.

Soler will now head west for the first time in his career, after playing with the Cubs, Royals, Braves, and Marlins during his 10 previous Major League seasons. Though Soler’s production has tended to vary wildly over his career, he comes to the Giants on the high of hitting .250/.341/.512 with 36 homers for the Marlins in 2023, bringing some needed pop to San Francisco’s lineup.

This power naturally lends itself to the cleanup spot, and Melvin said that Soler will primarily hit fourth in the batting order and act as the regular designated hitter. New arrival Jung Hoo Lee will hit leadoff and be the everyday center fielder, flanked on the grass by Michael Conforto in left field and Mike Yastrzemski in right. Since both corner outfielders are left-handed hitters, Soler might get some time out of the DH spot when a southpaw is on the mound, though Melvin sees the DH role as a natural way to keep Soler healthy and free of the nagging injuries that have bothered him in recent years.

In general, it seems like the Giants are going with at least slightly more of a regular lineup under Melvin, as opposed to the matchup-centric style of revolving lineups favored by former manager Gabe Kapler. There are still some obvious platoon or timeshare possibilities built into the roster, including Austin Slater’s role as a right-handed hitting complement to the lefty-heavy starting outfield. However, Melvin said Slater is a little behind the other outfielders in spring work, as Slater spent the offseason recovering from right elbow surgery in October. It doesn’t seem like Slater is in danger of missing Opening Day, though Melvin said Luis Matos will get some extra work as a center fielder.

Since it’s only mid-February, the chance still exists that the Giants might yet add another regular to the mix via free agency or trade. Though some gamesmanship must be acknowledge whenever an executive says they’re happy with their team, Zaidi inferred that further moves to the big league roster were unlikely, if not impossible.

“It’s a little bit more disruptive to add at this point. Anybody who’s a free agent, we’ve theoretically had three and a half months to figure out a deal and if it hasn’t happened yet, at some point organizationally, you just need to turn the page and focus on the players you have,” Zaidi said. “You never rule anything out, whether it’s now or May or June or whatever, but you know, at this point, the calendar makes any further additions unlikely.”

The Giants’ offseasons under Zaidi have largely been defined by the superstar players they didn’t sign (i.e. Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto) than the players they did acquire, leading to some consternation amongst the Bay Area fanbase. Still, Slusser notes that the Giants’ signings of Soler, Lee, Jordan Hicks, and Tom Murphy ranked the team second behind only the Dodgers in free agent spending, and San Francisco also completed a major trade in acquiring Robbie Ray from the Mariners.

Zaidi defended the Giants’ pursuits this winter, saying “we’re going to continue to take the big swing in free agency when it makes sense and some of the guys that we’ve pursued and have landed are top five-10 players in baseball. I’ve said this about a couple of them: I’m always surprised there aren’t more teams in on them rather than that maybe they wind up somewhere else. You expect things like this to be competitive and we always feel like we have to be able to pivot when things don’t work out. We think we’ve added some exciting players and I think we feel that energy in camp.”

Royals Acquire John Schreiber From Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2024 at 10:58pm CDT

The Royals have acquired reliever John Schreiber from the Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Kansas City placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Schreiber has a 27.4% strikeout rate over his 143 1/3 career innings in the majors, so missing bats has never been an issue for the 29-year-old. Between some home run issues and a lot of bad BABIP luck, however, Schreiber had only a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2019-20, and he pitched in only a single MLB game with the Red Sox in 2021. The breakout came in 2022, as Schreiber had a 2.22 ERA over 65 relief innings for Boston while also delivering a 28.8% strikeout rate and an above-average 7.4% walk rate.

2023 was more of a challenge, in no small part because Schreiber spent time on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder. Schreiber still posted a respectable 3.86 ERA over 46 2/3 innings and had strong strikeout and barrel rates, though his walk rate spiked up to an ungainly 12.3%. The sinker that was such a weapon for Schreiber the previous season was also less effective — batters had a .395 wOBA against his sinker in 2023, as opposed to a .245 wOBA in 2022.

An argument can certainly be made that the Red Sox might be selling high on Schreiber here, though it’s a risk Kansas City is willing to take for a reliever who is a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday and is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season. Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings before his IL stint and a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings after returning, so the Royals might view the righty’s struggles as just a byproduct his injury layoff. Should Schreiber get back to his 2022 form, K.C. suddenly has a big strikeout arm to deploy in high-leverage situations.

Today’s trade continues a very busy offseason for Royals GM J.J. Picollo, who has brought quite a bit of veteran talent to Kansas City in an effort to quickly turn around a team that lost 106 games last season. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were the headline-grabbing rotation upgrades, but Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and now Schreiber have all joined a reworked bullpen. Schreiber is a bit more of a longer-term add given his years of arbitration control, yet the Royals have put themselves in a position to either directly benefit on the field if these pitchers perform well, or to perhaps benefit in terms of having some trade chips at the deadline if K.C. again falls short of contention.

From Boston’s perspective, moving a solid reliever from Schreiber might not be well received at first by Red Sox Nation, given how the fans have been vocally unimpressed with the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason. Craig Breslow has made a lot of lateral moves in his first winter as the chief baseball officer, continuing the franchise’s recent bent towards adding younger talent rather than splurging on win-now stars.

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings. An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh. Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider. If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported earlier this week that the Sox were open to offers for not just Schreiber, but also Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. With Schreiber now out the door, it remains to be seen if Boston is still willing to move either of Jansen or Martin, or if the Sox will stop short of a full-on bullpen overhaul. Jansen or Martin are both free agents after the season and will be prime trade candidates at the deadline if the Red Sox aren’t in contention, so there has been speculation that the Sox might look to increase their return (and cut some salary) by dealing at least one of the veteran relievers now.

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