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Marlins Sign First-Round Pick Aiva Arquette

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The Marlins officially announced that first-round pick Aiva Arquette has signed a pro contract.  Craig Mish reported yesterday that an agreement had been reached between the club and the seventh overall pick.  Arquette signed for a $7,149,900 bonus, as per MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, which exactly matches the slot price attached to the seventh overall pick.

The Oregon State shortstop was a consensus top-10 prospect, with Fangraphs and The Athletic’s Keith Law each highest on Arquette as the fourth-highest player on their boards.  Baseball America ranked Arquette fifth in the 2025 draft class, MLB Pipeline had him sixth, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel was the relative lowest in putting Arquette ninth.

Despite this high profile and ceiling, evaluators acknowledge some risk in Arquette.  While he is seen as a solid fielder, his size (6’5″, 220 pounds) lead some scouts to believe he’ll inevitably have to move over to third base in the future.  Law also raised some issue about the quality of competition Arquette faced in college ball this season, and wondered if his hitting approach can hold up as he rises the ranks in pro ball.  Despite these questions, Arquette is seen as a very solid bat with plus power and very good contact skills.  A move to third base might not be a problem since Arquette could very well profile as a plus fielder at the hot corner, and he has a strong throwing arm.  Overall, Arquette was generally viewed as the best position player available from the college ranks.

This ties into a somewhat unique draft for Miami, as the team took college players with all 21 of its picks.  When talking with the Miami Herald’s Steve Gorten and other reporters, Marlins scouting director Frankie Piliere described this collegiate trend as “the coincidences of a draft board” rather than a specific tactic from the organization.  Still, it does perhaps set the Marlins up to get some help from the 2025 draft class sooner rather than later at the big league level.

Cardinals Sign Aaron Wilkerson To Minor League Contract

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The Cardinals announced that Aaron Wilkerson has signed a minor league deal, and the right-hander has been assigned to Triple-A Memphis.  Wilkerson had been pitching in the Reds organization on another minors contract until earlier this week, as KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander reported that Wilkerson triggered an opt-out clause in that deal.

It has been almost six years since Wilkerson’s last big league appearance, as the righty posted a 6.88 ERA across 35 1/3 innings with the Brewers from 2017-19.  Now 36 years old, Wilkerson’s career has seen consisted of a pair of trips abroad (pitching with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers in 2022 and with the KBO League’s Lotte Giants in 2023-24) and a few other stints in the minors with MLB organizations.  Wilkerson has pitched with the Dodgers, Athletics, and Reds without any further calls to the Show.

This year, Wilkerson has a 4.17 ERA over 18 starts and 95 innings for Triple-A Louisville, with a modest 20.7% strikeout rate but an outstanding 4.5% walk rate.  A .249 BABIP has undoubtedly contributed to Wilkerson’s success, and his 15% homer rate continues his trend of having some trouble keeping the ball in the park in both the upper minors and during his brief time as a Major Leaguer.

Wilkerson’s work in Louisville wasn’t enough to get him a look in Cincinnati, as the Reds have turned to a couple of top prospects (Chase Petty, Chase Burns) and more established starting options when having to fill holes in the rotation this year.  The Cardinals’ rotational depth chart is also pretty crowded, yet the Wilkerson signing is intriguing within the context of the July 31 trade deadline. Since St. Louis could be looking to move Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, or long reliever Steven Matz, it behooves the Cards to have an experienced starting depth at Triple-A should a vacancy suddenly appear on the team’s pitching staff.

Mets Sign Kevin Herget

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The Mets have signed right-hander Kevin Herget to a minor league contract, and announced that the reliever has been selected to the active roster.  Left-hander Brandon Waddell was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding transaction.

Herget is back in Queens after a stint on the Braves roster that lasted a little under two months.  The Mets claimed Herget away from the Brewers during the offseason, but he was designated for assignment in mid-May and found himself changing teams again on the waiver wire when Atlanta made a claim.  Herget was DFA’ed again last weekend and elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Braves’ Triple-A club (he had the right to choose free agency since Herget had previously been outrighted in his career).  Amidst all these roster moves, Herget hasn’t spent much time on a big league mound this season, as he has made a single appearance apiece for the Mets and Braves at the MLB level.

The right-hander now has 26 appearances and 45 2/3 innings on his career resume in the majors, with a 4.53 ERA to show for his work with the Rays, Reds, and Brewers in addition to New York and Atlanta.  The 34-year-old Herget has carved out a long career in pro ball since being a 39th-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2013 draft.  Most of his career has been spent in the St. Louis farm system, and Herget has a 4.00 ERA over 505 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.  This includes a 3.26 ERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, and eight percent walk rate over 30 1/3 combined innings with the Mets’ and Braves’ Triple-A affiliates in 2025.

It could be that Herget’s latest stint in the Show might be another cameo, as his addition gives the Mets a fresh arm over the short term.  Waddell pitched 3 2/3 innings in yesterday’s 8-4 loss to the Reds and wouldn’t have been available for a few days anyway, so he can rest up and get some work in for Triple-A Syracuse.  New York can’t recall Waddell back to the 26-man roster for at least 10 days, barring an injury to an active player.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Nationals Select Eli Willits With First Pick Of 2025 Amateur Draft

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The Nationals have taken high school shortstop Eli Willits as the first overall selection of the 2025 draft.  The 17-year-old Willits (a product of Fort Cobb-Broxton High School in Oklahoma) is the youngest first overall pick in draft history.  Washington had the first pick for the third time in franchise history, and Willits will have a tough act to follow since the Nats’ previous two 1-1 selections were Stephen Strasburg in 2009, and Bryce Harper in 2010.

There wasn’t a clear consensus among draft pundits this year, so several potential names were floated for the Nationals in the top spot.  Another unexpected wrinkle emerged just a week ago when the Nats fired longtime president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo (as well as manager Dave Martinez), and assistant GM Mike DeBartolo was suddenly in charge of the front office after being elevated to the interim general manager position.  DeBartolo told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that Willits was “the guy we wanted all along,” so it doesn’t appear that the sudden management change impacted the Nationals’ plans.

It is certainly possible that the pick was made with an eye towards the Nats’ overall draft pool, as Willits could be more apt to sign for less than the $11,075,900 slot price for the first overall selection.  A below-slot deal for Willits would free up space within Washington’s overall bonus pool ($16,597,800) for the Nationals to spread that money around on other selections, perhaps to entice some future picks later in the draft to sign rather than pursue college ball.

While Willits was a slight surprise at 1-1, the shortstop (the son of former Angels outfielder Reggie Willits) was still a highly-regarded prospect.  Baseball America and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each rated Willits as the third-best member of this year’s draft class, Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline each ranked him fifth, and The Athletic’s Keith Law had Willits eighth in his rankings.

Evaluators feel Willits has a pretty high floor as a solid all-around talent, with his excellent speed standing out as perhaps his top tool.  Willits is viewed as having the defensive potential to stick at shortstop, and he has a plus throwing arm and good range for the position.  A switch-hitter, Willits is already a strong contact hitter with a good approach at the plate.  Perhaps the largest question is how much power Willits will be able to generate against Major League pitching, but McDaniel and BA believe he can reach the 15-homer range.

Willits doesn’t have the hype or superstar ceiling of Strasburg or Harper, yet the 17-year-old now fills a similar role as one of the faces of a new era of Nationals baseball.  The Nats haven’t had a winning season since capturing the 2019 World Series, and the firings of Rizzo and Martinez indicate how ownership isn’t pleased with the state of what has become a fairly lengthy rebuild.  Washington had the sixth-worst record (71-91) in baseball in 2024 but held the fourth-best odds heading into last December’s draft lottery, as the White Sox and A’s were both ineligible to draft within the top six.

2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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This year’s amateur draft is officially underway, and we’ll be updating this post throughout the night with every first-round selection.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

Here are the first-round selections….

  1. Washington Nationals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (OK)
  2. Los Angeles Angels: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  3. Seattle Mariners: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
  4. Colorado Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)
  5. St. Louis Cardinals: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona High School (CA)
  7. Miami Marlins: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
  8. Toronto Blue Jays: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis High School (MS)
  9. Cincinnati Reds: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville High School (AL)
  10. Chicago White Sox: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona High School (CA)
  11. Athletics: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
  12. Texas Rangers: Gavin Fien, SS/3B, Great Oak High School (CA)
  13. San Francisco Giants: Gavin Kilen, SS/2B, Tennessee
  14. Tampa Bay Rays: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek High School (GA)
  15. Boston Red Sox: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
  16. Minnesota Twins: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
  17. Chicago Cubs: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
  18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson High School (TX)
  19. Baltimore Orioles: Ike Irish, C, Auburn
  20. Milwaukee Brewers: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee
  21. Houston Astros: Xavier Neyens, SS/3B, Mount Vernon High School (WA)
  22. Atlanta Braves: Tate Southisene, SS, Basic High School (NV)
  23. Kansas City Royals: Sean Gamble, OF/2B, IMG Academy (FL)
  24. Detroit Tigers: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles High School (FL)
  25. San Diego Padres: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset High School (OR)
  26. Philadelphia Phillies: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
  27. Cleveland Guardians: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

The first round officially consists of only 27 picks since the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all had their first-round selections dropped back by 10 slots.  The three teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier in 2024, and thus their punishment included a 10-slot drop in their opening draft choice.

The 2025 draft is split up over two nights.  Rounds 4-20 will take place tomorrow, while the draft’s first 105 picks will come off the board tonight.  Those 105 picks consist of the first three proper rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, and two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the Royals getting the 28th overall pick due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive.  The evening’s 105th and final selection will be a compensatory pick to the Angels for not agreeing to a deal with 81st overall pick Ryan Prager.

Padres Interested In Korey Lee

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The Padres are known to be looking for help behind the plate, and their search for catching has extended to the Windy City.  The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the Padres have interest in White Sox catcher Korey Lee, who has spent much of the 2025 season either on the big league injured list or at Triple-A Charlotte.

It wasn’t long ago that Lee seemed like a potential building block for the Sox, as he opened the 2024 season as Chicago’s regular catcher and hit .309/.341/.494 in his first 85 plate appearances.  Unfortunately for Lee, his bat then went ice cold for the remainder of the year.  He finished with a .210/.244/.347 slash line in 394 PA, and his 64 wRC+ was the third-lowest of any 2024 player who received at least 300 trips to the plate.  Lee’s 2025 campaign then got off a rough start when he suffered a left ankle sprain in early April, which resulted in over six weeks on the IL.

Lee’s last big league appearance this season came on June 5, and he has since been playing in Charlotte.  With highly-regarded prospects Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero now taking over as Chicago’s catching tandem, Lee simply looks like the odd man out.  Blake Sabol was just acquired today in a trade from the Red Sox, which could push Lee even further down the depth chart or hint that Lee could soon be on his way elsewhere.

The Astros took Lee with the 32nd pick of the 2019 draft, and his 12-game rookie season in 2022 netted him a World Series ring right at the start of his Major League career.  Lee was dealt from Houston to Chicago at the 2023 trade deadline in the swap that brought Kendall Graveman to the Astros, and Lee has thus far hit .192/.231/.315 over 521 career plate appearances in the big leagues.

It isn’t much of a track record, though Lee has hit pretty well during his time at Triple-A, including a .262/.342/.438 slash line in 146 PA with Charlotte in 2025.  Lee was very good at throwing out baserunners in 2024, but Statcast hasn’t loved his defensive work overall, with generally negative grades for Lee’s framing and blocking (albeit in a small sample size of MLB action).  If Lee doesn’t look like a difference-maker on paper for the Padres, he is just shy of his 27th birthday, and might be able to yet unlock his past draft potential with another change of scenery.

As it relates to San Diego, Lee still could represent an upgrade on a catching situation that has nowhere to go but up.  Padres catchers have combined for -0.9 bWAR in 2025, easily the lowest of any team’s catching corps.  Veterans Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado have a cumulative slash line of .190/.250/.296 in 342 plate appearances, and Maldonado’s once-acclaimed glovework has also fallen off, as per public metrics.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Alcantara, Cabrera, Fried, Gil, Garcia, Rodriguez

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A ten-game winning streak has launched the Red Sox back into the playoff race, and all but confirmed that the club will be looking to buy before the trade deadline.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has stated that the Sox are looking at pitching options, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam opines that the Red Sox would likely prefer controllable pitchers in particular, so this new hurler could help support the club’s talent core for more than just the remainder of 2025.  However, as of two days ago, McAdam noted that Boston hadn’t yet spoken with the Marlins about two controllable potential trade candidates — Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera.

While there’s still plenty of time before the July 31 deadline for the Sox to inquire about either pitcher, the lack of interest to date might indicate that Breslow simply might have other pitchers on his target list.  Alcantara’s past Cy Young Award-winning form makes him perhaps the summer’s likeliest trade candidate, yet the right-hander has struggled badly in his return from Tommy John surgery.  Cabrera is arbitration-controlled through 2028 so the rebuilding Marlins might not see a reason to move him just yet, and certainly not for anything less than a massive trade return.  Health is also a concern with Cabrera, as he left Friday’s start early due to elbow discomfort but might be able to avoid the injured list after a precautionary MRI came back clean.

More from around the AL East….

  • Yankees ace Max Fried left Saturday’s start after three innings due to a blister on the index finger of his throwing hand, and he told The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and other reporters today that it was too soon to tell whether or not Fried would be healed and ready to make his first start after the All-Star break.  Fried is no stranger to blister problems, and the unpredictable nature of the injury means that it could be at least a few days before the southpaw or the club has any clarity on the situation.  Despite some shaky results in his last three starts, Fried still finished the first half with tremendous numbers, including a 2.43 ERA over 122 innings in his debut season in New York.
  • Speaking of Yankees pitchers, Luis Gil has been sidelined all season by a lat strain, but the reigning AL Rookie of the Year began a minor league rehab assignment today with Double-A Somerset.  Gil threw 36 strikes during the 50-pitch outing, recording six strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings of work while allowing a run on two hits and a walk.  This sharp performance is a good sign for Gil as he gets back to full readiness, and his long layoff means that his rehab stint will probably stretch into August.  An in-form Gil would be a massive boon for the Yankees’ rotation for the remainder of the season, and the team’s trust in Gil’s health could inform how much of a push New York makes for pitching help at the deadline.
  • Yimi Garcia may not need a rehab assignment for his sprained ankle, and he could rejoin the Blue Jays’ bullpen when first eligible to be activated from the 15-day injured list.  (Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling was among the members of the Toronto beat to report the news.)  Garcia has pitched just once in the majors since May 22, as he was first sidelined by a shoulder impingement and then quickly picked up his ankle sprain that necessitated a return to the 15-day IL on July 5.  The reliever threw a bullpen session on Friday and is slated to throw another soon, and his recovery from those sessions should determine the Jays’ next step.
  • Rays right-hander Manuel Rodriguez will probably visit with doctors on Monday after experiencing elbow soreness during his most recent rehab outing, manager Kevin Cash told the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin and other reporters.  A forearm strain sent Rodriguez to the 15-day IL just over a month ago, and Friday was supposed to be his final rehab outing, except the reliever’s elbow started acting up and his velocity dropped noticeably.  Rodriguez has been an underrated bullpen weapon over his two-plus seasons in Tampa, delivering a 2.12 ERA over 68 relief innings since the start of the 2024 season.  This isn’t the first time Rodriguez has dealt with a major arm problem, as an elbow strain cost him the majority of the 2022 campaign when Rodriguez was still a member of the Cubs organization.

Eight Teams Showing Interest In Luis Robert Jr.

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Luis Robert Jr. has long been seen as a natural trade candidate, and interest remains in the former All-Star even as he is battling through a second consecutive difficult year.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that “eight teams have checked in” with the White Sox about Robert, without specifying the identities of any of these suitors.

After going 1-for-4 in Chicago’s 6-5 loss to the Guardians today, Robert concludes the first half with only a .190/.275/.325 slash line over 306 plate appearances.  Robert’s strikeout and walk rates are both near the bottom of the league, and while his .315 xwOBA is much higher than his .264 wOBA, even that .315 number is subpar.  Despite this overall dismal offensive performance, a few bright spots exist.  The right-handed hitting Robert has a very impressive .913 OPS against southpaws (but a .498 OPS against righty pitching), he has stolen 22 bases in 28 attempts, and his barrel and walk rates are above average.

Between this season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign, Robert has hit just .210/.277/.356 in 727 PA since Opening Day 2024, translating to a 76 wRC+.  His center field glovework has declined since a 2023 season that now seems like a career year, though Robert’s defense is still at least decent, adding another possible plus for any interested suitors.

Hindsight being 20-20, the ideal time for the White Sox to move Robert was in the wake of his All-Star campaign in 2023, given how his production has since cratered.  The Sox opted to keep Robert in the hopes that another healthy and productive season would only enhance his trade value, yet this plan has now backfired.  Even with the amount of interest that Robert is still generating, obviously the White Sox aren’t going to get nearly the haul they once anticipated getting for the outfielder, which is a big setback for a rebuilding team that still needs a lot more talent.

2025 is the final guaranteed year of the six-year, $50MM extension Robert signed prior to the 2020 season.  The Sox hold $20MM club options (each with a $2MM buyout) on his services for both 2026 and 2027, and this extra contractual control was once seen as another major asset to Robert’s trade value.  He has approximately $6.25MM remaining of his $15MM salary for 2025, so with that $2MM buyout, the $8.25MM price tag attached to Robert now might be too pricey for other teams to fully entertain, given his struggles.  The Sox are reportedly willing to include money to help facilitate trades of Robert and Andrew Benintendi, though one would imagine that’s a greater concern as it relates to Benintendi’s much larger remaining salary obligations.

Heyman notes that some clubs feel Robert could benefit from being “a complementary player,” which isn’t a surprise given his drastic splits.  Robert’s ability to still crush lefties provides some hope that he can get his overall game on track, as interested suitors might also feel that Robert can benefit simply from a change of scenery.  Still just a few weeks shy of his 28th birthday, Robert should be in his prime, and that big 2023 season certainly still lingers in the minds of rival front offices.

The Dodgers, Giants, Reds, Mariners, and Mets are among the clubs who have been linked to Robert’s trade market in the last couple of years, with New York showing interest as recently as May.  It would seem that probably every contender with a need in the outfield could at least call up White Sox GM Chris Getz to make a few inquiries about an asking price for Robert, and even a brief hot streak for Robert after the All-Star break could spark a minor bidding war.

Tigers Sign Geoff Hartlieb To Minor League Contract

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The Tigers signed Geoff Hartlieb to a minors contract and assigned the right-hander to Triple-A Toledo, as per Hartlieb’s MLB.com profile page.  Hartlieb made his debut for Toledo today, tossing 1 1/3 relief innings and picking up the win in the Mud Hens’ 6-1 victory over Omaha (the Royals’ Triple-A club).

It was just two days ago that Hartlieb entered free agency, as he chose to test the market rather than an accept an outright assignment to the Yankees’ Triple-A club.  Hartlieb has been DFA’ed and outrighted several times over the years, and thus has the right to decline any further outrights in favor of free agency.  Just since the start of July, Hartlieb was twice designated for assignment by New York — his first trip to free agency saw him quickly re-sign with the Yankees, but this latest venture now sees Hartlieb land in Detroit.

The 30-year-old Hartlieb has pitched in parts of six Major League seasons, though with only 80 2/3 career innings in the Show.  The first 57 1/3 of those frames came with the Pirates in 2019-20, and Hartlieb has since bounced around for sporadic duty with the Mets, Marlins, and Rockies in addition to his time in the Bronx.  Hartlieb has a 7.92 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and a very high 14.9% walk rate against big league hitters.

His Triple-A numbers are considerably better, as Hartlieb took a 4.17 career ERA in Triple-A ball into today’s outing against Omaha.  This solid production in the minors has consistently gotten Hartlieb looks from clubs in need of relief depth, and the Tigers are the latest team to bring the right-hander aboard.  Hartlieb is out of minor league options, which limits his flexibility if he gets called back up to the majors, and likely means he’ll face future trips to DFA limbo.

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