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NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

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Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut.  “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said.  “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games.  The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates’ signing of Ali Sanchez this week added a fourth catcher to the Bucs’ 40-man roster, as Sanchez joins Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.  This seeming surplus makes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonder if the Pirates are adding depth in advance of a trade, perhaps even a headline-grabbing move that would see Rodriguez dealt for a controllable young pitcher.  Of course, Sanchez’s addition could also mean that the Pirates have again changed their mind about Davis being an option behind the plate, as the former first overall pick played right field almost exclusively during his 2023 rookie season.
  • The Reds have so many promising young infielders both in the minors and already on the MLB roster that it remains to be seen how exactly Cincinnati will line up these players around the diamond.  Elly De La Cruz has no problem with a potential position change, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith that “wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play….For me, it doesn’t matter where I play.  I just want to play. I’m going to have fun wherever I am.  I just want to play as much as possible.”  De La Cruz played shortstop and third base during his rookie season, with public defensive metrics favoring his work at the hot corner.  Though Edwin Arroyo might end up being the longer-term defensive answer at shortstop, the Reds seem likely to use De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at third base and shortstop in some fashion in 2024, though Matt McLain could very well figure into the shortstop plans as well if he isn’t at second base (or if Jonathan India isn’t traded).
  • Tyler Glasnow and the Cubs were linked in trade rumors earlier this week, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that “nothing has changed too much over the past week” and “nothing seemed close to done, certainly not with the Cubs” on the Glasnow front as of yesterday.  In terms of what the Rays might want, Sharma believes Tampa Bay is looking for a controllable young pitcher as the headliner in a Glasnow trade package.  This might not necessarily be a fit for a Chicago team that is trying to build its young pitching depth, though Glasnow has been on the Cubs’ radar as a trade candidate for a few years.

Angels’ 2023 Payroll Stayed Under Luxury Tax Threshold

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12:52PM: The Angels’ final tax number fell within just $30K of the threshold, the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher reports.

11:28AM: The Angels’ final luxury tax calculations placed the team slightly under the $233MM threshold, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  As a result, the Halos will both avoid paying any tax money and ensure that they will receive a higher compensatory draft pick should Shohei Ohtani depart in free agency.  If Ohtani signs elsewhere, the Angels’ pick will fall after the second round of the 2024 draft, whereas the pick would’ve come after the fourth round as part of the penalties attached to teams who exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

This represents a difference of roughly 55-60 spots in the draft order for the Angels, which is no small matter even if a compensatory pick is a relatively thin silver lining for losing a generational talent like Ohtani.  Staying under the tax line also means, however, that Los Angeles would face less of a penalty if it signs another free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Signing such a player will now cost the Halos $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft, whereas if they had exceeded the CBT threshold, the Angels would’ve had to give up $1MM in international pool money and their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.

Since owner Arte Moreno has made a point of bringing big-name free agents to Anaheim, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Halos responded to the possible loss of Ohtani by trying to obtain another star.  It also can’t be ruled out that Ohtani might stay with the Angels after all, even if the expectation is that the AL MVP will depart for a team that can offer him a better chance at winning than the perennially disappointing Angels.

In avoiding a tax penalty, the Angels continue their streak of staying under the CBT threshold in every season since 2004, which was Moreno’s first full year as the club’s owner.  As much as Moreno has been willing to splurge on big contracts, it has been clear that he has viewed the tax threshold as an unofficial salary cap, with this past season being the one exception.  As part of a final push to retain Ohtani and finally end the Angels’ string of losing seasons, the club was aggressive throughout the summer in adding pieces to atone for injury losses, until a disastrous run in August ended their playoff hopes.

L.A. then pivoted by placing a big chunk of their roster on the waiver wire just before the September 1 deadline for postseason eligibility, hoping that contenders in need of reinforcements would make some claims and bring the Angels some salary relief.  Given the specifics of the dollar figures and the narrow margin of error the Angels were working with, it wasn’t quite clear until today whether or not Los Angeles had gotten under the tax line or not, but it appears as though the team’s efforts weren’t for naught.

Mariners, Blue Jays Interested In Isaac Paredes

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Rays infielder Isaac Paredes has drawn trade interest from several teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (X link), with the Mariners and Blue Jays among the suitors.  There isn’t any indication that a deal is anywhere close, and it would have to count as something of a surprise if Tampa did move Paredes, considering both his ability and the fact that he is only now entering his arbitration years.  He is projected to earn $3.2MM in the first of four arb-eligible years as a Super Two player.

As such, dealing Paredes wouldn’t bring many savings to the Rays’ 2024 payroll, estimated (via Roster Resource) to sit at a franchise-high $126MM.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander is on record as saying the Rays are open to having such a relatively large payroll, yet that hasn’t stopped speculation that Tampa Bay might look to move such higher-salaried names as Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, or even Randy Arozarena.  Trading players as they become more expensive has been a longstanding way of business in Tampa, and there aren’t really many true untouchables on a roster that the Rays are forever looking to upgrade.

In this sense, selling high on Paredes now would net the Rays to a big trade return, and allow them to sidestep Paredes’ increasing arbitration price tag entirely.  It seems possible that the Rays might also consider attaching a less-desirable contract like Margot or Lowe along with Paredes in a trade package — while this would lessen the return in terms of prospects or big-league ready players, it would get some money off Tampa Bay’s books and perhaps allow them to keep Glasnow as the backbone of a somewhat thin rotation.

The Rays’ attention to the budget is what brought Paredes to Florida in the first place, as Tampa acquired the infielder and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from the Tigers for Austin Meadows in April 2022.  Meadows was owed $4MM that season in the first of three arbitration years, yet the Rays chose to deal him in what ended up being a wise move.  Meadows has played in only 42 games since the trade due to vertigo and anxiety issues, and the Tigers non-tendered him last month.

Paredes, meanwhile, has blossomed in Tampa Bay, hitting .232/.333/.467 with 51 homers over 952 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022.  This production has outpaced his projected numbers, as Paredes hasn’t made much hard contact, and ranked only in the sixth percentile of all batters in hard-hit percentage in 2023.  On the plus side, it can be argued that Paredes has been hampered by a very low .232 BABIP over the last two seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have been solidly above average.  In the field, Paredes has spent most of his time at third base posting respectable defensive numbers, and he brings added versatility as a player capable of getting some action as a second baseman, first baseman, and emergency shortstop.

This skillset is particularly useful for teams like Seattle and Toronto, infield-needy teams who could use more pop in the lineup.  The Mariners recently acquired Luis Urias to contribute to their infield picture, yet Paredes would be an improvement over Urias as a regular third baseman, so Urias and Josh Rojas could then work into a second base platoon.  The Blue Jays also have a big hole at the hot corner with Matt Chapman now a free agent, and Paredes could potentially also contribute to the Jays’ unsettled second base position.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has swung quite a few trades with the Rays during his tenure in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the two sides line up once more.  That might seem a more realistic scenario than a notable swap between the Rays and Jays, as the AL East rivals unsurprisingly haven’t combined for many trades in their history.  Tampa Bay would probably prefer to not have to deal with Paredes as an opponent in the coming seasons, while the Blue Jays might not relish facing any of their own young talents that they might have to deal away to facilitate such a swap.

Speculatively, Tampa could target a controllable young pitcher like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo as part of a Paredes trade.  With the Mariners targeting contact hitting, Paredes would be a better fit at third base for the club than the free-swinging Eugenio Suarez, who was already dealt away to the Diamondbacks.  Any major salary relief probably might not factor into such a Rays/Mariners deal since it isn’t clear how much the M’s are able or willing to spend this winter, considering that the Suarez trade was made in part to reduce salary.  On this front at least, the higher-spending Blue Jays might be in a better position to take some money off Tampa’s books.

Mets Interested In Jung Hoo Lee

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Most of the offseason buzz surrounding the Mets has focused on their pursuits of pitching, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Amazins also have “strong interest” in outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.  Between New York’s known interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and now Lee, it is clear that the Mets are taking a particularly hard look at the overseas market as an avenue to add talent to the roster.

Though David Stearns is now in charge of the Mets’ front office, the international market isn’t exactly a new direction for the club, considering that Kodai Senga was signed to a five-year, $75MM deal just last offseason.  That deal is looking like a wise investment considering Senga’s success in his first MLB season, and adding any of Lee, Yamamoto, or Imanaga would be an intriguing upgrade over the long term.  This fits with the general assessment that the Mets are more focused on 2025 as the target date for their true return to championship contention, though obviously the team still wants to achieve some on-field success in the coming season.

Lee is expected to be posted by the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes any day now, and once he officially hits the market, the Mets and other teams will have 30 days to reach a contract with the 25-year-old outfielder.  If no deal is reached, Lee would return to the Heroes for the 2024 KBO season and have to wait until next offseason to again seek out a Major League deal, yet there seems to be enough interest in his services now that Lee will very likely be making his big league debut in 2024.  MLB Trade Rumors projected a five-year, $50MM deal for Lee, and ranked him 15th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The Mets join the Yankees, Giants, and Padres as known suitors for Lee’s services, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman estimates that around 20 teams have some level of interest in Lee.  Naturally, owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend gives the Mets some level of financial advantage over a lot of suitors, and it might also help the Amazins that their overall offseason focus is little more narrowed than most big-market teams.  Whereas clubs like the Giants, Yankees, or Dodgers are broadly “in on everyone” as a matter of due diligence, the Mets’ prioritization of the 2025 season has reportedly made them less interested in many trade targets only under contract for the 2024 campaign (i.e. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, or Shane Bieber).

Lee was the KBO’s MVP in 2022, and is a five-time winner of their Gold Glove Award for his outfield work (primarily as a center fielder).  His 2023 season was prematurely ended in July due to ankle surgery, though there aren’t any known complications preventing Lee from being fully fit for the start of Spring Training.  With a .340/.407/.491 slash line over 3947 career plate appearances for the Heroes, Lee has been more than a match for KBO pitching, though gauging how that will translate against the higher caliber of MLB pitching is the big question for any position player coming from the hitter-friendly KBO League.

Evaluators have some concerns over Lee’s defensive future and if he can generate enough power to be a true top-tier Major League hitter, though there might be a decent talent floor in place if Lee is “only” a high average/OBP type of batter who is more than capable in left field.  Sliding Lee into the Mets’ left field vacancy makes for a very easy fit, and Lee could also get time up the middle if Brandon Nimmo was moved to left field.  Public defensive metrics have been mixed at best over Nimmo’s center field glovework over the years, so even if Lee is perhaps not a sure thing at the position, he might represent at least a short-term defensive upgrade over Nimmo.

Padres Interested In Corbin Burnes

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Much of the hot stove buzz around the Padres this offseason has focused on the team’s reported desire to cut payroll, and the possibility that a Juan Soto trade could be an ideal way for the Friars to both save money and reload with some new talent.  However, the Padres firmly still intend to get back to winning baseball in 2024, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the team has interest in trading for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

Nick Martinez has already left to join the Reds, and there is little expectation that either Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha will be re-signed, given the Padres’ apparent budget concerns.  That leaves San Diego in severe need of starting pitching depth behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, and adding a former Cy Young Award winner like Burnes would certainly provide a huge boost.  While more work would need to be done on the back end of the rotation, the Padres would suddenly have a top three comparable to any other starting trio in baseball.

Acee’s piece details some of the financial factors going into the Padres’ winter plans, and notes that “the Padres have inquired about most of the top starters” available in free agency, even if signing one of the bigger-name arms doesn’t seem likely.  Acquiring pitchers on more moderate free agent deals or via the trade market seems much more realistic, though landing Burnes would naturally come at a heavy price.

Firstly, it isn’t yet clear that the Brewers are even going to move Burnes, as much as their own payroll situation might make a deal seem sensible.  Burnes is projected to earn $15.1MM in 2024, which is his final year of arbitration eligibility before testing free agency.  Given Milwaukee’s history of spending, it doesn’t seem likely that the Crew will fork over the pricey extension or free agent deal it would take to keep Burnes in Wisconsin, so there is some merit in moving him this winter.

In essence, it’s the same decision the Padres face with Soto, who is projected for a whopping $33MM arbitration salary and will also be a free agent come next winter.  Soto is widely expected to seek a contract upwards of $500MM since he’ll be only entering his age-26 season in 2025, and re-signing in San Diego suddenly seems less likely if the Padres are going to be reining in their spending.

Just to get the obvious hypothetical out of the way, a trade of Soto for Burnes in some fashion might not be too feasible for either San Diego or Milwaukee.  It obviously wouldn’t be a straight one-for-one swap, yet it’s very fun to imagine a blockbuster swap that would see the Padres get the pitching upgrade they need while the offense-needy Brewers land an elite bat.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has plenty of creative trades on his resume, and last winter’s three-team swap with the Braves and Athletics shows that Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold is also no stranger to bold moves.

This all being said, the trade package San Diego reportedly wanted from the Yankees is perhaps more instructive as to what the Padres are looking to achieve with a Soto deal.  If the Friars are looking for a mix of win-now talent, prospects, and salary relief (perhaps involving unloading the contract of a player like Trent Grisham), then very few teams can meet that asking price.  Obviously that reported Yankees offer might represent a high starting ask from Preller and his demands might lessen as the offseason develops, yet a smaller-market team like the Brewers that particularly values prospects as the backbone of their organization isn’t going to make a big splurge for one year of control over Soto.  If anything, Arnold might be looking for a similar return for Burnes — a trade package that helps set the Brewers up for years to come, not a particular win-now push for 2024.

If a direct trade between the two teams might not work, it is possible another three-team deal could be explored, and Acee suggests that a three-team trade might be the only way for the Padres to fully achieve most of their goals in dealing Soto.  In regards to Milwaukee specifically, perhaps the Padres could move Soto to a third club, then funnel some of the young talent they’d receive from that mystery team towards the Brewers to then add Burnes for San Diego’s rotation.  The permutations here are pretty much endless, and there’s a reason why three-team trades are relatively rare, particularly three-team trades involving some of the game’s biggest superstars.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored Burnes’ trade market, and the Padres weren’t one of the 12 teams Steve identified as the best possible fits for the right-hander.  This doesn’t mean the Padres (or even one of the other clubs not cited) absolutely couldn’t emerge as something of a surprise suitor, and the team’s interest altogether indicates that Preller isn’t planning a fire sale of the roster.

Coaching Notes: Tigers, Iapoce, Royals, Dillon

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Catching up on some coaching staff moves from around baseball…

  • The Tigers will name Anthony Iapoce as their new first base coach, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News reports (X link).  Tim Federowicz is leaving his position as the big league catching coach to take over as the manager at Triple-A Toledo, which was Iapoce’s previous job in 2023.  Iapoce worked as a hitting coach with the Rangers and Cubs from 2016-21 and then as a senior hitting coordinator with the Red Sox in 2022 before joining Detroit’s organization.  Federowicz retired from playing following the 2021 season, and the former catcher is already on his second Triple-A managerial stint after previously being the skipper of the Mariners’ top affiliate in 2022.
  • The Royals announced the hiring of Joe Dillon as an assistant hitting coach.  A big leaguer with the Marlins, Brewers, and Rays from 2005-09, Dillon’s time in Tampa’s organization overlapped with the tenure of current Royals manager Matt Quatraro, back when Quatraro was working as an instructor in the Rays’ minor league system.  Dillon also has longstanding ties in Kansas City, as the Royals began his pro career when they selected him in the seventh round of the 1997 draft.  Since retiring as a player, Dillon has worked as a hitting coach and coordinator at the Major League and minor league level, including two years as the Nationals’ assistant hitting coach in 2018-19, and then working as the Phillies’ big league hitting coach in 2020-21.

Orioles Interested In Robert Stephenson

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With the Orioles already exploring the high-end reliever market, Robert Stephenson is another name drawing interest from Baltimore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).

The O’s saw plenty of Stephenson when he pitched for the Rays last season, a 38 1/3-inning stint that set a new ceiling on the former first-rounder’s potential.  While Stephenson had posted good results over full seasons (with the Reds in 2019 and with the Rockies in 2021) and for the last month of the 2022 season after the Pirates claimed him away from Colorado, the right-hander had simply been too inconsistent to be a truly reliable bullpen arm.  Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings with Pittsburgh last season before the Rays acquired him in a June trade, and that’s when the turnaround happened.

Stephenson proceeded to post a 2.35 ERA, 42.9% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over his 38 1/3 frames for Tampa, suddenly breaking out as one of the best relievers in baseball.  A tiny .194 BABIP undoubtedly contributed to that success, yet the rest of Stephenson’s metrics were so impressive that batted-ball luck alone couldn’t account for his success.  Replacing his slider with a cutter as his secondary pitch worked wonders for Stephenson, as his cutter became one of the more overpowering pitches in all of baseball.

While 38 1/3 innings isn’t a huge sample size by any stretch, Stephenson’s run in Tampa Bay was so dominant that it has made him one of the most sought-after names on the relief market as he enters his age-31 season.  Morosi previously reported that the Cubs, Angels, and Dodgers all had interest in the righty’s services, and the Orioles now become the fourth team linked to the Stephenson market.

MLBTR ranked Stephenson 27th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting a four-year, $36MM contract.  Darragh McDonald also picked the Orioles as Stephenson’s landing spot, despite the fact that the O’s have yet to sign any player to even a multi-year contract during Mike Elias’ tenure as general manager.  While nobody expects the Orioles to suddenly go wild with spending this winter, the team’s 101-win 2023 season shows that Baltimore is firmly capable of contending for a championship, and some level of payroll increase is likely necessary to add what might be only a couple of final pieces to the team’s impressive talent core.

The Orioles have showed signs that they’re at least considering some higher-level expenditures.  Baltimore reportedly checked in on Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and their ventures into the relief market have included links to Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.

Stephenson perhaps joins Hicks as something of a middle ground between the nine-figure, multi-year deal it will likely take to land Hader and the one-year deals Kimbrel or Chapman are likely to sign.  Signing Stephenson, Hicks, or Hader would give the O’s a longer-term relief arm even after Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery, and putting any of those relievers with Bautista and Yennier Cano in 2025 and beyond makes for a very promising bullpen situation.

Reds Re-Sign Connor Overton To Minors Deal

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The Reds have re-signed Connor Overton to a minor league deal, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.  The right-hander was outrighted off of Cincinnati’s 40-man roster in early October and entered minor league free agency, but Overton now looks to return for what will be his third season in the Reds organization.

Overton underwent Tommy John surgery last May, so he isn’t expected to be part of the Reds’ 2024 plans until around midseason.  Since this was the second TJ procedure of Overton’s career, it is possible his recovery time might take a little longer than the usual 12-15 month timeframe, and it can’t be ruled out that he might need all of 2024 to rehab.  The minor league deal gives Overton and the Reds some low-risk security in allowing him to rehab in a familiar environment while seeing what he can potentially contribute on the field.

Overton made only three starts and threw 11 innings (to the tune of an 11.45 ERA) in 2023, and the combination of a stress reaction in his back and a hamstring injury also limited him to 33 innings over six appearances in 2022.  He has a 4.85 ERA over 59 1/3 total innings in the bigs, with the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Reds since his MLB debut in 2021.

A 15th-round pick for the Marlins back in the 2014 draft, Overton bounced around both the affiliated and independent minor leagues before breaking into the majors with Toronto.  Working as both a starter and a reliever since the canceled 2020 minor league season, Overton’s numbers have been quite impressive at the Triple-A level, which is likely another reason why the Reds wanted to keep the 30-year-old in the fold.  Overton’s first priority is simply to get healthy, but there is some possible late-bloomer potential if Overton can translate his Triple-A success to the majors.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals entered the offseason looking for three new starting pitchers, and that goal has already been accomplished with the signings of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson.  To this end, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated that the club has done a lot of the heavy lifting on its efforts to upgrade the rotation, yet he didn’t rule out more additions.

“We feel like we have a strong five right now,” Mozeliak told Gregg Palermo of Spectrum News.  “We feel like we have three or four guys that could give us depth throughout the season as well, so it’s not like a front-line priority but you never say never because something may pop up and make sense.”

In discussing the club’s tactics as a whole, Mozeliak said “we were very aggressive in the free agent market which was strategic.  We did not think we were going to be able to acquire what we were looking for via trade, at least where we didn’t feel like we were going to give up something that we were comfortable with, and so now that we do have some starting pitching we are going to be looking at things for our bullpen and be open-minded because there could be something that we haven’t thought about.”

Technically, St. Louis now has a rotation surplus given all of the younger arms behind the projected starting five of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.  It isn’t to say that the Cardinals are necessarily itching to deal from their starting depth since the team very likely wants to have as much depth as possible on hand to withstand another spate of injuries, not to mention the fact that only Gray had a clear-cut quality season in 2023.

However, it does make sense that the Cardinals would be open to moving one or two of their younger arms if it means bringing in more top-of-the-rotation help.  In addition to their interest in White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the Cards have “discussed internally what a potential trade for Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow would look like,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

This isn’t really surprising news given that front offices routinely consider scores of free agents and trade candidates, and it seems similarly likely that the Cardinals probably at least checked in with the Rays about Glasnow as a matter of due diligence.  Perhaps most notably, Goold made specific mention that the Cardinals were weighing how Glasnow’s $25MM salary for 2024 would fit their payroll picture, which is currently projected to be slightly above their $178MM payroll from 2023.

While the Rays have stated they are comfortable carrying a larger payroll than usual for 2024, the general feeling is that Tampa will still try to move some salaries between now and Opening Day.  This could manifest itself as trades of other players (i.e. Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, or maybe even Randy Arozarena) rather than Glasnow, yet the right-hander’s $25MM salary is easily the highest on Tampa Bay’s roster, and he isn’t seen as a long-term fixture given that Glasnow is eligible for free agency next winter.  This short-term appeal makes Glasnow an interesting fit for many teams, including St. Louis if the Cardinals are okay with a one-year payroll bump, or if they look to shed some salaries themselves either as part of a Glasnow trade, or in other deals.

Turning to the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Yuki Matsui are a couple of the names already reported as players of interest for the Cardinals, and Goold adds Phil Maton as another target.  Maton has been an effective workhorse out of the Astros pen over the last two seasons, posting a 3.42 ERA and spectacular soft-contact numbers over 135 appearances and 131 2/3 regular-season innings.  A broken pinkie finger kept Maton from participating in Houston’s World Series run in 2022, but he has an outstanding playoff resume nonetheless, with an 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career postseason innings.

Maton (who turns 31 in March) went to high school in Chatham, Illinois, around a 90-minute drive away from St. Louis.  As Goold notes, geography also played a factor in the signings of Gray and Gibson, so the Cardinals might look to continue this trend to lure another semi-local product in Maton.  There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Maton’s market to date, yet the relief pitching market as a whole hasn’t really gotten cooking, as teams have been primarily first focusing on starters.

Blue Jays Interested In Brantley, Pederson, Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have been linked to such high-profile names as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, and others on the free agent and trade markets, yet the team isn’t only focusing on these top-tier names to address their roster needs.  According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have interest in free agent outfielders Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson, as well as utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

These names have long been on the radar of Jays GM Ross Atkins, who has at least explored the possibility of acquiring all of the trio in the past.  Kiner-Falefa was targeted at the last trade deadline, Pederson was targeted during his last stint in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason, and Brantley reportedly seemed on the verge of signing with Toronto in the winter of 2020-21 before opting to return to the Astros at something of the eleventh hour.

To some extent, Brantley or Pederson could be seen as backup plans if Toronto didn’t acquire Soto, since left field is the primary defensive spot for all three players.  A world exists where the Blue Jays could trade for Soto and then sign one of the other two outfielders, with an eye towards using Brantley or Pederson primarily as a designated hitter (with Soto or George Springer also getting some DH time for partial rest days).  Such a scenario might somewhat run counter to the Jays’ focus on defense over the last year, though Daulton Varsho would still be anchoring center field, and the Jays might be willing to sacrifice some glovework to boost their middling lineup.

In the bigger picture, none of Brantley, Pederson, or Kiner-Falefa would really be obstacles to any bigger-name acquisitions the Blue Jays might have in mind.  The three veterans are all likely to be had on one-year contracts, similar to Toronto’s signings of Kevin Kiermaier or Brandon Belt last winter.

Pederson hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Giants last season, as his 111 wRC+ was still quite respectable but a big step down from the 146 wRC+ posted in 2022.  It was something of an unusual year for Pederson in 2023, as he cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate, but seemingly at the cost of a good chunk of his usual power.  Pederson still had some of the best hard-contact numbers of any player in the league, and a .268 BABIP and a big gap in his wOBA (.331) and his xwOBA (.366) indicates that the 31-year-old might’ve been somewhat unlucky to post only a 111 wRC+.

That said, 2022 does stand out as something of an outlier amongst Pederson’s last four seasons, and even his career in general.  Without much baserunning or defensive value, Pederson projects best as a DH (or part-time left fielder or first baseman), and limiting him to plate appearances against only right-handed pitching is preferable given his career splits.

Brantley would also have to be considered a part-time option due to his health, as shoulder surgery and recurring soreness kept Brantley out of action from June 2022 until August of last season.  He amassed 89 total PA with the Astros during the regular season and postseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brantley’s eventual contract contains a lot of incentive clauses tied to playing time.  The former five-time All-Star showed only flashes of his old self at the plate in 2023, though it is possible another full offseason of rest and rehab might get Brantley back into something closer to his past form.

Kiner-Falefa is in some ways the easiest player to project of the trio, as the 28-year-old has pretty firmly established himself as a light-hitting jack of all trades who can provide at least respectable defense at a wide variety of positions.  A Gold Glove winner with the Rangers as a third baseman in 2020, IKF could be viewed by the Blue Jays as a potential glove-first replacement for Matt Chapman at the hot corner, with the Jays then presumably looking to add bigger bats to fill their other holes at second base, left field, or DH.  If Toronto doesn’t think enough of Kiner-Falefa’s bat to merit a semi-starting role, he could simply be a top utility option off the bench, giving the Blue Jays some flexibility in how hard they need to push on any one of their particular positions of need.

As usual, Atkins is seemingly keeping tabs on just about every prominent player on the market, and Davidi hears from player agents that the Blue Jays are “planning to shift quickly if needed” should their attempts at a superstar acquisition fall short.  In terms of Ohtani specifically, Davidi is doubtful the two-time AL MVP will ultimately land in Toronto, yet the Jays aren’t really costing themselves by exploring the possibility since the position-player market is moving quite slowly.  It could be that several teams and players are in the same boat as the Blue Jays in waiting on Ohtani’s decision to open up the market to a fuller extent.

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