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Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays reached a new spending frontier, and reshaped a good chunk of their starting lineup.  Is it enough to bring the Jays some postseason success?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $41.55MM
Total spending: $89.8MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Teoscar Hernandez led the Blue Jays in plate appearances from 2018-22, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finished fourth on that list.  So when GM Ross Atkins said in October that the Jays were less likely to change the team’s core during the winter, that ended up not quite being the case, though it’s fair to argue that Atkins perhaps didn’t consider two outfielders slated for free agency in the 2023-24 offseason as true “core” pieces.

Phrasing quibbles aside, Toronto leaves the offseason with a lineup that has considerably more balance between left-handed and right-handed batters, more speed, and more defense than last year’s squad.  On paper, the Jays look better prepared for both the reconfigured outfield dimensions of their home ballpark, and for a 2023 season that will put a broader emphasis on speed and glovework due to the new rules.

The Jays got right to business in revamping their outfield mix, as Hernandez was dealt to the Mariners in one of the offseason’s most notable early moves.  The trade brought the Blue Jays a young arm for the future in Adam Macko, and the more immediate help that Erik Swanson can provide to the bullpen.  Swanson has pitched well for the last two seasons, particularly a 2022 campaign that saw him post a 1.88 ERA and mostly-elite secondary numbers across the board in 53 2/3 relief innings for Seattle.

With the aftershock of the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapse in Game 2 of the wild card series (against the Mariners, ironically) still lingering, it was hard to argue that Toronto didn’t need to bolster its relief corps in some fashion.  Swanson will bring some needed strikeouts to the bullpen, and the Jays figure to use him in many types of high-leverage situations, including some traditional set-up innings in front of closer Jordan Romano.

Hernandez’s departure set the table for the next big outfield move, which also saw the Blue Jays finally dip into their significant amount of catching depth.  It isn’t often that a club moves a consensus top prospect like Gabriel Moreno, yet since Toronto also had Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen lined up behind the plate, all three backstops have been prominently featured in trade rumors for the better part of a year.

The Jays were willing to wait a little longer to finally trade a catcher, as their swap with the Diamondbacks didn’t come together until Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez were already off the free-agent catching market, and after the A’s had moved another major catching trade chip in Sean Murphy.  Arizona was also a team with a notable trade surplus, as its group of left-handed hitting outfielders attracted many teams besides just Toronto.  But, with the D’Backs needing catching and the Jays needed left-handed hitting outfield help, the fit was perfect.  Gurriel’s inclusion along with Moreno finally got the Diamondbacks to budge on Varsho, which was an acceptable result for the Blue Jays since Gurriel was already looking like an expendable asset.

The 26-year-old Varsho is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season, giving the Blue Jays a long-term asset that they see as an outfield cornerstone.  Only 28 players in baseball had a higher fWAR in 2022 than Varsho’s 4.6 number, as he combined excellent defense with strong baserunning and above-average (106 wRC+) offensive production in the form of 27 home runs and .235/.302/.443 slash line in 592 plate appearances.

There is naturally still room for improvement in Varsho’s numbers, particularly when it comes to drawing walks and making contact (Varsho struck out 145 times in 2022).  The Blue Jays are hoping that last season might represent Varsho’s floor as an offensive player, and even if he does have a similar year at the plate, Toronto isn’t going to mind another all-around performance in the 4.6 fWAR range.

Before the trade with Arizona, the Jays had already improved their outfield defense by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM free agent contract.  Kiermaier has been one of baseball’s best defensive players for the better part of the decade, and after being a frequent thorn in Toronto’s side as a member of the Rays, Kiermaier now moves elsewhere in the AL East after Tampa Bay declined their $13MM club option on his services for 2022.

Signing Kiermaier carries some obvious risk, considering that he has been an average offensive player at best during his career, and (most pressingly) a very frequent visitor to the injured list.  Last season was no different, as Kiermaier’s 2022 campaign ended in July when he had to undergo surgery to repair a torn hip labrum.  In theory, this surgery might finally correct what has long been a lingering issue for Kiermaier, yet it is also fair to wonder what Kiermaier has left in the tank as he enters his age-33 season and is coming off yet another substantial injury layoff.

Should Kiermaier again need to miss time, Toronto has a ready-made center field replacement in Varsho, or George Springer might even move back to his old position from his new right field spot.  Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio will figure into the corner outfield picture, with rookie Nathan Lukes also serving in a backup outfield capacity.

The result is a vastly superior defensive outfield, as the Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer alignment from left to right is streets ahead of the Gurriel/Springer/Hernandez trio that Toronto often used in 2022.  Even from a depth perspective, the Jays are in a better position than last year, when injuries to the starters meant a lot of playing time for such replacement-level outfielders as Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, or Jackie Bradley Jr.  Losing Hernandez’s bat may weaken the lineup, or maybe not if Varsho takes a step forward, or if Springer’s move to a less-strenuous outfield position helps him stay on the field more often.

With two left-handed bats in Varsho and Kiermaier added to the lineup, the Blue Jays added a third by signing longtime Giants first baseman Brandon Belt as the primary designated hitter.  Health is again a red flag here, as Belt has battled knee problems for years and underwent surgery on his right knee back in September.  Though those issues surely contributed to Belt’s subpar numbers in 2022, he was posting monster numbers when healthy in 2020-21, hitting .285/.393/.595 with 38 homers in 560 PA over those two seasons.

As with Kiermaier, the Jays have made preparations in case Belt has to miss more time, as any of Toronto’s right-handed bats could get a DH day whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound.  Belt said he felt reinvigorated in the aftermath of his knee surgery, so between good health, the move to a more hitter-friendly park (with more tempting dimensions for left-handed hitters), and less of a worry about defensive shifts, there is reason to think Belt can bounce back from his tough 2022 season.

These new faces will augment the team’s core group of Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and the now-solidified catching tandem of Kirk and Jansen.  Second base remains a bit of a question mark, but the Blue Jays seem confident that the combination of Merrifield, Biggio, and Santiago Espinal can be productive.  Toronto wasn’t really linked to many notable infield upgrades on the rumor mill this winter, with the exception of agent Scott Boras stating that the Jays “were really after” his client Xander Bogaerts before Bogaerts signed with the Padres.

Exploring big-name acquisitions has become routine for the Toronto front office in the last few years, with Atkins and company at least checking in on a wide array of players as a matter of due diligence.  The 2022-23 offseason was no exception, as the Blue Jays reportedly had varying degrees of interest in such players as Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon, Cody Bellinger, Johnny Cueto, Michael Brantley, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney, Masataka Yoshida, Kyle Gibson, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Robert Suarez, Alex Reyes, and their own most notable free agent in Ross Stripling.

Though some of those signings may have more realistic possibilities than others, the fact that the Blue Jays are able to consider basically any player speaks to the team’s greater financial flexibility.  After spending a club-record $171MM on payroll in 2022, the Jays have boosted that number even further with approximately $211.7MM committed to salaries this season.  This translates to a luxury tax number of roughly $250.5MM, putting the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time and quite close to the secondary Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $253MM.

Big-spending teams like the Yankees and Padres have slightly curbed their spending to stay under particular tiers of tax penalties, and it isn’t known if the Blue Jays might similarly see the second CBT line as an upper limit on their spending.  Still, given how aggressive the Jays have been, it is hard to imagine that the club wouldn’t be willing to surpass the $253MM line if it meant picking up a necessary addition at the trade deadline, for instance.  Exceeding the next tier ($273MM) might be a different story since the Jays would then see their top draft choice in 2023 knocked back ten places in the draft order.  But, the CBT’s impact on other non-financial penalties (such as the draft pick cost and compensation for free agents who reject qualifying offers) is the same for the Blue Jays if their tax figure is anywhere from $233MM to a dollar below the $273MM mark.

The Jays didn’t have any qualms about pursuing a QO free agent this offseason, as the team gave up $500K in international bonus pool money and its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft in order to make its biggest signing of the winter.  It wasn’t any surprise that most of the names on Toronto’s target list were pitchers, and the Blue Jays landed some necessary rotation help by signing Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal.

The Giants’ inclusion of an opt-out clause allowed San Francisco to entice Stripling away from a possible reunion with the Jays, meaning that Toronto had an even more marked need to find a replacement for Stripling’s quality production.  Bassitt was the answer, as he cashed in on the heels of a strong four-year run with the Athletics and Mets.  With a knack for inducing soft contact and limiting walks, Bassitt has been a thoroughly solid arm, and he’ll line up as the Blue Jays’ third starter behind Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

Even if the top three has been reinforced, however, an argument can certainly be made that the Jays might have done more at the back end of the rotation.  The Blue Jays are certainly hoping that Jose Berrios will be at worst a good fourth starter if he bounces back from his mediocre 2022 campaign, and fifth starter Yusei Kikuchi is also looking to rebound from a dismal season.

If Kikuchi falters again, the Blue Jays can turn to a group that includes Zach Thompson (acquired in a January trade with the Pirates), non-roster options like Drew Hutchison or Bowden Francis, or Mitch White when he is healthy.  Hyun-Jin Ryu might return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, but it’s an open guess as to what Ryu can contribute after his long layoff.  If not Ryu, perhaps top prospects Ricky Tiedemann or Yosver Zulueta might become possibilities by the second half, but overall, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the Jays’ rotation might look by the end of the season.

The rotation questions only put more pressure on the bullpen, and in speaking of late-season additions, Chad Green was another notable winter signing, joining the Blue Jays on an option-heavy deal that could be as little as a two-year, $8.5MM deal, or as much as a four-year, $29.25MM pact.  Green had Tommy John surgery last May, so he might also be something of an unofficial “deadline acquisition” that is already in the organization.  If Green can make a quick return to anything close to his past form with the Yankees, he’ll be another nice fit for the relief corps.

It was an altogether interesting offseason in Toronto, as the club didn’t exactly overhaul things (not that such an extreme was needed after a 92-win season) but also did more than just add the proverbial finishing touches to the roster.  The Blue Jays will again face stiff competition to return to the playoffs, but just getting into the postseason wouldn’t be satisfactory for a team that clearly has designs on a championship.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners swung some interesting trades to bolster their lineup, but took a very modest dip into the free agent market.  Will it be enough to push this roster from playoff team to World Series contender?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $8.92MM
Total spending: $8.92MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

It wasn’t surprising that “Trader Jerry” Dipoto swung one of the offseason’s first big trades, as the Mariners president of baseball operations made a quick move in November to land Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays.  Erik Swanson was a huge part of Seattle’s bullpen in 2022 and he carries three years of arbitration control, but the M’s are betting their deep and talented relief corps can pick up the slack of Swanson’s departure, while the lineup was in need of a big bat.

Despite a pair of Silver Slugger Awards on his resume, Hernandez was still perhaps a bit overlooked in Toronto, given the presence of such higher-profile homegrown names as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.  The 30-year-old has a 132 wRC+ over the last three seasons, batting .283/.333/.519 with 73 home runs over his last 1337 plate appearances with consistently sky-high hard-contact rates.  The tradeoff to this production is a lack of walks and a lot of strikeouts, and public defensive metrics haven’t been impressed with Hernandez’s work as a corner outfielder.

Still, having Julio Rodriguez in center field will help cover some of Hernandez’s defensive shortcomings, and adding a reliable slugger as an everyday player immediately answered one of several questions the Mariners faced about their outfield heading into the winter.  While the M’s had several options to flank Rodriguez in the corner outfield positions, it was a list of players either short on proven MLB experience, or coming off underwhelming performances in 2022.

With Hernandez in place, the Mariners could pivot to unloading some of these other outfielders.  Kyle Lewis has played in only 54 games since winning AL Rookie Of The Year honors in 2020, due to both a concussion and recurring knee problems that might make him close to a DH-only player sooner rather than later.  While Lewis still hit well at Triple-A last season and has plenty of upside if he’s healthy, the Mariners instead opted to trade him to the Diamondbacks for a more versatile outfield option in Cooper Hummel.

In fact, this versatility extends behind the plate, as Hummel is a rare catcher/outfielder hybrid who can serve as depth at both positions.  Cal Raleigh is Seattle’s top catching option, and since backup Tom Murphy is coming back from a 2022 season cut short by shoulder surgery, Hummel gives the M’s extra flexibility with their catching mix.

The next outfield-related move also saw the Mariners address their need at second base.  The club’s explorations into keystone help included interest in a Gleyber Torres trade with the Yankees, and at least some interest in Trea Turner and the other top shortstops on the market, with the idea that one of them could be open to moving to second base (since the M’s preferred to keep J.P. Crawford at short).

Instead, the Mariners landed one of their other second-base targets for a player who seemed to have worn out his welcome in Seattle.  Jesse Winker was one of the Mariners’ prize pickups from the 2021-22 offseason, but lingering knee and neck problems seemed to sap his power — Winker had only a .344 slugging percentage in 2022, far below the .504 SLG he posted over his five previous seasons with the Reds.  There was also reportedly some behind-the-scenes discord regarding Winker within Seattle’s clubhouse, and so the M’s decided to move on by trading him and Abraham Toro (who was also expendable due to the Mariners’ other infield depth options) to Milwaukee for Kolten Wong.

2022 was also an uncharacteristic season for Wong, as while he had arguably his strongest year at the plate, his vaunted defense cratered.  Injuries were a factor in this situation as well, as Wong battled some leg problems that turned the three-time Fielding Bible Award winner into a subpar defender at second base.  Assuming Wong is now healthy, there’s plenty of potential for a bounce-back in Seattle, and perhaps even an opportunity for a career year if Wong can regain his defensive form and continued his improved hitting.

Wong isn’t expected to be an everyday contributor, as he’ll be spelled against left-handed pitching by platoon partner Dylan Moore.  While Sam Haggerty might fill this role while Moore recovers from an oblique strain, the M’s certainly consider Moore to be a key piece going forward, as the utilityman was signed to a three-year extension that gives the Mariners additional control over what would have been Moore’s first free agent year.

The last piece of the outfield puzzle was completed when AJ Pollock was signed to a one-year, $7MM deal.  Pollock’s signing sets up another platoon, as the veteran outfielder will be paired with Jarred Kelenic in left field.  This timeshare reflects Pollock’s reduced numbers against right-handed pitching in 2022, while also giving Kelenic regular (yet not full-time) work as he tries to establish himself in the majors.  The former top prospect hasn’t hit at all over his 558 PA as a big leaguer, but a big Spring Training performance has Kelenic and the Mariners hoping he just needed some extra time to adjust.

Between all these moves and the Mariners’ addition of another bounce-back candidate in Tommy La Stella, Dipoto took a measured approach to his lineup additions.  Hernandez, Wong, Pollock, and La Stella are short-term adds, all slated to hit free agency next winter.  Compared to some of the other names to whom the M’s were linked (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Masataka Yoshida, Andrew Benintendi, and old friend Mitch Haniger), the club clearly opted against making any sort of big splash of a move.

In terms of spending, the Mariners finished 2022 with roughly a $116MM payroll, and Roster Resource now pegs their 2023 payroll at approximately $140.5MM.  That’s not a small increase, but also not a big one either, considering that last fall, RR had Seattle projected for around $131.5MM in spending based on estimated arbitration raises alone.  Hernandez’s $14MM salary for 2023 basically accounts for the rise to $140.5MM, as the Mariners saved a few extra dollars by parting ways with such arb-eligibles as Swanson, Lewis, Toro, Luis Torrens, and Ryan Borucki.

To this end, Dipoto noted during a radio interview in December that the payroll increase is, naturally, a sign the organization isn’t afraid to spend.  Dipoto also pointed to the pricey contract extensions the team reached with Rodriguez and Luis Castillo prior to the end of the 2022 season as further evidence to his point that “raising payroll is doing smart things that evenly balance a team.”  However, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote in December that “multiple MLB sources have indicated that [Dipoto] isn’t operating with the payroll flexibility that was widely anticipated” heading into the offseason.

Since the Mariners’ payroll was in the $160MM range as recently as 2018, it isn’t clear why ownership might have limited spending.  It could be due to lingering after-effects from the pandemic, uncertainty over the Root Sports Seattle regional network even though the Mariners are still the majority (60%) owners, or perhaps just that stretching up to $160MM was something of an outlier for the franchise.  That said, it could be that the front office might be given funds during the season to pick up a needed trade deadline piece, or maybe the M’s are saving room in the budget for a larger pursuit down the road.  Since the Mariners were finalists for Shohei Ohtani when the two-way star first came to North America, it stands to reason the M’s would again have interest when Ohtani enters free agency next offseason, even if his contract demands approach or exceed the $500MM mark.

Speaking of pitching, the Mariners at least checked in on Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets.  This might have been more of a due-diligence pursuit on Seattle’s part, as adding Senga would’ve given the M’s seven rotation candidates, and maybe forced the team’s hand in subsequently trading one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen.  As Opening Day nears, Gonzales and Flexen are still on the roster despite months of trade rumors, as there has been plenty of speculation the Mariners might deal from their rotation surplus.

It could be Dipoto simply never received an offer to his liking for Gonzales or Flexen, and it is fair to assume the M’s wanted a quality return in exchange for a starting pitcher (especially during an offseason that saw so many free agent starters land huge contracts).  After all, the Mariners were under no particular pressure to swing a trade, considering the obvious benefit of simply keeping both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold.  A rotation “surplus” can quickly diminish in the event of an injury or two, and while Seattle has an intriguing wave of pitching prospects on the verge of the big leagues, the club probably prefers having a veteran arm as the top depth option.  The M’s also dealt from their prospect depth in sending Adam Macko to Toronto as part of the Hernandez trade, even if Macko wasn’t expected to reach the majors in 2023.

As noted earlier, the Mariners will be mostly counting on their existing bullpen mix to account for Swanson’s departure.  Some more relief depth was added in the form of minor league signings and lower-profile trades and waiver claims, but the M’s did sign a reliever to a guaranteed deal by adding Trevor Gott for $1.2MM.  Gott posted decent numbers over 45 2/3 innings out of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2022, and while he won’t get the high-leverage assignments that Swanson drew, Gott will bring some experience to the back of the pen.

Seattle’s chances of a deeper run into October might hinge on how much of a step forward their lineup can take, given how the pitching staff still looks like a strength.  The first step for the Mariners is just getting out of the AL West, since the Astros will still be a powerhouse and the Angels and Rangers each made several moves to upgrade themselves over the winter.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Bryan Shaw, Nick Avila Won’t Make White Sox Opening Day Roster

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March 28: The Giants informed reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, that Avila has been returned to them from the White Sox.

March 26: The White Sox have informed right-handers Bryan Shaw and Nick Avila that they won’t be part of the team’s Opening Day roster, James Fegan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).  The two pitchers are at opposite ends of the experience spectrum, as Shaw is a 12-year MLB veteran in camp on a minor league contract, while Avila has yet to pitch beyond the Double-A level but was Chicago’s pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

Avila’s R5 status creates an immediate obstacle, since the Sox are required to keep him on their active roster for the entire 2023 season in order to fully obtain his rights.  (Or, at least 90 days on the active roster and the rest of the time on the injured list, in the event of an injury.)  If the White Sox don’t meet this criteria for Avila, they have to offer him back to the Giants, his original team, for $50K.  Fegan writes that the Sox might still look for ways to keep Avila around, though outside of a proper trade agreement with the Giants or a suddenly injury to Avila, Chicago’s options are fairly limited.

The 25-year-old Avila had a stunning 1.14 ERA over 55 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels in 2022.  It was the righty’s first full season as a reliever and he clearly took to the new role, also posting good strikeout and walk rates in addition to his minuscule ERA.  MLB Pipeline ranks Avila as the 20th best prospect in Chicago’s farm system, giving his fastball and cutter both 60-grades and noting how Avila’s five-pitch arsenal gives him “a more diverse repertoire than most relievers.”

Avila couldn’t keep the production up in Spring Training, however, posting a 7.20 ERA over 10 innings of work even though his underlying metrics were still good.  By contrast, Shaw had a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 Spring Training innings, but it wasn’t enough to land the 35-year-old a spot on the active roster.

Shaw isn’t an Article XX(B) free agent and thus didn’t have an automatic opt-out decision on March 25, though it is quite possible his minor league deal included some kind of different opt-out language.  His impressive spring numbers might certainly convince another team to take a look at Shaw if he does end up leaving the White Sox organization (either by opt-out or release), and a reunion with the Guardians can’t be ruled out considering his longstanding ties to Cleveland.

Shaw spent the last two seasons (and seven of his 12 MLB seasons overall) in Cleveland, though he struggled to a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians bullpen in 2022.  Apart from a solid 2021 campaign, Shaw hasn’t been very reliable for most of the last five seasons, as he has a 5.23 ERA over 268 1/3 innings since the start of the 2018 campaign.

With Avila and Shaw out of the running, Gregory Santos and Keynan Middleton appear to be the favorites to land the final spot in the otherwise set Chicago bullpen.  Santos also came to the White Sox out of San Francisco’s farm system, and after being acquired from the Giants in a December trade, the righty has yet to allow a run over 8 1/3 spring innings.  Middleton is in camp on a minor league deal, and has a rockier 6.00 ERA in nine frames of Cactus League work.

White Sox To Select Contracts Of Oscar Colas, Hanser Alberto; Leury Garcia Won’t Make Opening Day Roster

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3:27 PM: According to James Fegan of The Athletic, Hanser Alberto is expected to make the Opening Day roster with Garcia not making the team.

2:57 PM: The White Sox continue to shape their roster in advance of Opening Day, and according to reporter Francys Romero (Twitter link), outfielder Oscar Colas has been told by the team that he will break camp.  In a more surprising development, Leury Garcia will not be part of the 26-man roster, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (via Twitter).

Garcia was initially acquired from the Rangers in an August 2013 trade, and has since become a longstanding roster staple.  Used mostly as a bench player over his 10 seasons with the White Sox, Garcia’s ability to play all over the diamond has made him a solid backup and fill-in option, as he has logged many games at all three outfield positions, shortstop, third base, and second base.  This versatility has helped offset Garcia’s lack of offense, as he has only a .253/.293/.350 career slash line over 2402 plate appearances.

When Garcia entered the free agent market last winter, the Sox re-signed him to a three-year, $16.5MM deal that stood out as relatively steep for a 30-year-old career backup.  The decision to retain Garcia became even more questionable when his offense declined even further in 2022, as he hit a meager .210/.233/.267 over 315 PA.  Garcia’s 39 wRC+ was the lowest of any player in baseball last season with at least 300 plate appearances, and he was a sub-replacement -1.1 fWAR player overall.

In terms of other utility options, minor league signing Hanser Alberto has had a strong camp, and Romy Gonzalez is something of a utilityman-of-the-future down at Triple-A (plus, Gonzalez has already had a taste of the big leagues).  Since veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus is returning to the White Sox as their new second baseman, manager Pedro Grifol hinted yesterday to reporters (including The Athletic’s James Fegan) that Andrus’ presence made Garcia somewhat redundant.

“Our backup shortstop plays second base for us every day,” Grifol said.  “So, it’s not really a pressing need to have a utility player on our bench that is a shortstop.  We are not pressed to do that.  Would it be of value?  Yeah, maybe.  Not of great value, but of some value.“

It remains to be seen if Garcia would accept an assignment to the minor leagues, or if his omission from the roster is the beginning of the end of his time in the organization altogether.  The Sox would be eating the remaining $11MM on Garcia’s contract in the event of a release, and a trade or a waiver claim seems pretty unlikely since teams won’t want to absorb that salary.

As for Colas, there was little doubt that he would be heading north to the Windy City, and the 24-year-old now seems set to make his MLB debut on Opening Day.  Colas signed with Chicago for a $2.7MM bonus when the 2022 international signing period opened, and he hit a combined .314/.371/.524 with 23 homers over 526 combined PA at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels in 2022.

While Colas has only had okay numbers throughout Spring Training, his minor league dominance and his past track record in the Cuban National Series has indicated that he is ready for MLB competition.  Colas is expected to get the majority of work in right field, with Eloy Jimenez (when he isn’t at DH) and Gavin Sheets also in the mix.  Between the debuting Colas and the newly-signed Andrew Benintendi, Chicago’s outfield will have a new look, with Luis Robert returning as the incumbent in center field.

Athletics Sign Jeurys Familia

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TODAY: The Athletics officially announced Familia’s signing.  To create 40-man roster space, left-hander Kirby Snead was placed on the 60-day injured list due to a strained throwing shoulder.  Snead hasn’t thrown for over a month since first suffering the strain in Spring Training action.

MARCH 25: The A’s have signed right-hander Jeurys Familia to a Major League contract, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link).  MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos reported earlier today that Familia was present in the Athletics’ clubhouse.  Familia is represented by ACES.

It was a pretty quick trip through free agency for Familia, as he was only released yesterday from his previous minor league deal with the Diamondbacks.  Since Familia could’ve opted out of that minors deal today if Arizona hadn’t included him on its Opening Day roster, the D’Backs chose to release Familia and give him a bit of a jump on the rest of the Article XX(B) market.

That head start has now paid off in a guaranteed MLB contract for the 33-year-old reliever, as well as a familiar landing spot.  Familia previously pitched for the A’s in 2018, joining the team after a trade deadline swap with the Mets.  Over his previous 31 1/3 innings in the green-and-gold, Familia posted a 3.45 ERA, helping Oakland reach the AL wild card game.

Since that 2018 season, Familia’s performance has been quite inconsistent, with a couple of okay seasons in 2020-21 (at least in terms of bottom-line results) sandwiched in between rough years in both 2019 and 2022.  Last season, Familia struggled to a 6.09 ERA over 44 1/3 combined innings with the Phillies and Red Sox, with below-average walk and strikeout rates as well as some of the most hard contact allowed of any pitcher in baseball.

Familia did look quite a bit sharper this spring in Arizona’s camp, with a 1.35 ERA over 6 2/3 frames of work.  It wasn’t enough to win him a job in the Diamondbacks bullpen, but Familia will now bring some veteran knowhow to an Athletics relief corps that is short on MLB experience.  There is enough uncertainty in Oakland’s bullpen that it might not be a surprise if Familia ends up earning some save chances at some point, and given how the A’s are still in rebuild mode, Familia certainly looks like a potential trade chip this summer if he is pitching well.

Guardians, Amed Rosario Have Discussed Contract Extension

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Amed Rosario is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2023 season, but the Guardians have some interest in retaining his services over a longer term, as Rosario told The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (Twitter link) and other reporters that the club has touched base with his agents at Octagon about a possible contract extension.  Rosario isn’t considering Opening Day as a deadline for talks, but he isn’t sure if a deal will be reached.

While the Guardians have commonly pursued and reached extensions over the years, the team has generally pursued multi-year deals with younger players who are either early in their arbitration eligibility or are still in the pre-arb phase of their careers.  Recent examples include the extensions Cleveland reached with Emmanuel Clase and Myles Straw just under a year ago, as both deals saw the Guards gain cost-certainty over the players’ arbitration years and also gain control over free agent years, whether via guaranteed years or via club options.  Of course, the Guardians also signed the biggest contract in team history with their extension with Jose Ramirez last spring, but that deal is something of an outlier considering both Ramirez’s superstar status, his specific desire to remain in Cleveland, and his willingness to take a below-market price.

In short, it would represent a departure from Cleveland’s usual tactics if they locked up a player like Rosario, who is a little older (though he’ll only be 28 on Opening Day 2024) than their normal extension targets, and is also on the verge of free agency.  Rosario and his camp are surely also weighing the Guardians’ offers against the wider market as a whole, since if Rosario can even just replicate his 2022 numbers, he’ll be one of the better options available in a free agent class that isn’t terribly deep in position players.

Once one of baseball’s top prospects during his days in the Mets farm system, Rosario hasn’t yet risen to those lofty expectations, yet he has become a solid everyday player over his two seasons in Cleveland.  Rosario’s inconsistency in New York led the Mets to move him as part of the blockbuster trade that brought Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to Queens, while also giving Cleveland some major payroll savings and two new middle-infield building blocks in Rosario and Andres Gimenez.

It is a deal that has worked out very nicely for the Guardians, considering how Gimenez broke out with one of the best all-around seasons of any player in 2022.  Rosario’s contributions have also been quite respectable, as he has produced 2.4 fWAR in each of his two seasons in Cleveland, hitting .282/.316/.406 over 1258 plate appearances for a 101 wRC+.  His glovework at shortstop is more of a mixed bag depending on your defensive metric of choice, but at least in the view of Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150, his fielding was strongly above-average in 2022.  Rosario also has some experience as a left fielder and center fielder, though his defense has been mediocre over his small sample size of 171 1/3 innings on the grass.

Given the Guardians’ penchant for trading players as they become too expensive, Rosario has been the subject of trade rumors almost since the moment he joined the organization, as there was even speculation Cleveland might flip him soon after the Mets deal.  However, even with Rosario’s rising price tag and the number of promising young middle infield prospects in the Guards farm system, the front office has held off on a trade, and now might revert course entirely by extending Rosario beyond 2023.  A midseason trade might still be possible if the Guardians were to fall out of the postseason race, or if the team becomes confident enough in its young depth options that it moves Rosario while also acting as deadline buyers in pursuit of another deep playoff run.

The ripple effects of a Rosario extension could include an increased willingness by the Guardians to move one or two of those prospects to address other needs, if the club is indeed eyeing Rosario and Gimenez as the long-term answer up the middle.  Gimenez is under team control through the 2026 season and might be an extension candidate himself, so it doesn’t seem likely that the Guards would pivot to exploring a Gimenez trade if they locked up Rosario.

In terms of available payroll space, the Guardians don’t have much in the way of future commitments, but the team’s traditionally limited spending is itself an obstacle.  Prior to Ramirez’s extension, Cleveland had never spent more than $60MM (Edwin Encarnacion) on a player, and it would seem like the team would have to spend well in excess of that number to cover multiple free agent years of a shortstop entering his age-28 season.  Rosario told Meisel and company that he likes playing for the Guardians, though it isn’t known if he would be open to taking anything close to the relative hometown discount that Ramirez gave the team in his extension.

Injury Notes: Nevin, Severino, Houser, Suarez, Suzuki

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As expected, the Tigers will place Tyler Nevin on the 10-day injured list to begin the season.  Nevin suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain a little less than three weeks ago, making it doubtful that the 25-year-old would be fully recovered in time for Opening Day.  However, it is possible Nevin won’t miss much time, as Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press) that Nevin is on pace to start a rehab assignment this week.

Even a brief IL stint isn’t an ideal way for Nevin to begin his tenure with his new team, as he was only acquired by the Tigers in a swap with the Orioles back in December.  Nevin’s ability to play both corner infield and outfield positions makes him an interesting commodity on Detroit’s roster, as this versatility and Nevin’s right-handed bat made him a natural platoon partner or complement to such left-handed batters as Austin Meadows, Akil Baddoo, Nick Maton, or Kerry Carpenter.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

  • Luis Severino is another player headed for a season-opening IL stint, as the Yankees right-hander has suffered a lat strain.  This particular injury is a concern given that Severino missed over two months of the 2022 season with another lat strain, but the pitcher told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that this strain in lower in his back than last year’s problem and doesn’t seem as serious.  Severino suggested that he could miss “three or four starts,” but a more specific timeline isn’t known, since “I’m going to be a little bit cautious, but I think the Yankees are going to be more cautious than me.”  Last summer, Severino expressed both surprise and public displeasure with the Yankees’ decision to shift him from the 15-day to the 60-day IL, as he expecting a quicker return to action.
  • Brewers right-hander Adrian Houser left his spring outing yesterday due to groin tightness, and the club will further examine his status today.  The same injury bothered Houser both earlier in Spring Training and at the end of last season, resulting in an IL stint.  Considering the recurring nature of the groin problem and the close proximity to Opening Day, it certainly seems possible the Milwaukee could start Houser on the IL once more.  As the odd man out of a deep Brewers rotation, Houser had been tabbed for a relief role to begin the season, with the understanding that he is also the team’s unofficial sixth starter in the event of an injury.
  • Ranger Suarez played catch on Friday and Saturday, telling Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his left arm still had some tightness but no pain.  In general, Suarez felt “nothing too bad” and his forearm was doing “better.”  Despite this fairly positive update, it still seems unlikely that Suarez will be able to avoid an IL trip given how the Phillies will probably be cautious with a case of elbow inflammation.  The left-hander was projected to be either the third or fourth starter in Philadelphia’s rotation this season, but with his likely absence for part of April, Bailey Falter will step into that vacancy in the starting five.  Matt Strahm or Michael Plassmeyer could take the fifth starter job, as top prospect Andrew Painter, Cristopher Sanchez, and Nick Nelson are also battling injuries.
  • The Cubs haven’t yet decided how they’ll replace Seiya Suzuki on their season-opening roster, as Suzuki will need a 10-day IL stint after missing the last month of Spring Training due to an oblique strain.  Suzuki is making such steady development in his rehab work that even though he’ll miss some time during the regular season, it may not be all that much time. “Whether you are trying to put somebody on the [40-man] roster that’s not on it or trying to fill a gap for 10 days is a big deal,” Cubs manager David Ross told Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  “And it’s a big decision.  We have so much talent and a lot of depth here.  We would like to keep as much as we possibly can because of the long journey we’re about to start.”

Mariners Return Rule 5 Pick Chris Clarke To Cubs

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Right-hander Chris Clarke is officially once again part of the Cubs organization, as the Mariners returned the Rule 5 Draft selection to Chicago.  (Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune was among those to report the news.)

The Mariners took Clarke with the 22nd pick of last December’s R5, taking the opportunity to get a closer look at the 24-year-old in action.  Clarke was a fourth-round draft choice for the Cubs in 2019, and the 6’7″ USC product had posted some solid strikeout rates and very impressive walk rates over 196 2/3 career innings in the minors.

Those numbers came with a modest 4.26 ERA, however, though some bad batted-ball luck was partially to blame.  Clarke is more of a grounder specialist, and thus his 58% groundball rate in 96 2/3 Double-A innings last season would’ve likely led to better results had Clarke not been hampered by a large .375 BABIP.

As per the regulations of the Rule 5 Draft, Clarke would’ve had to remain on Seattle’s active roster for the entire season in order for the team to fully assume his rights from the Cubs.  Even with Clarke’s potential, it seemed unlikely that he would’ve made the jump from Double-A to the majors and won a job in a pretty loaded Mariners relief corps.  Seattle had one of baseball’s better bullpens in 2022, leaving Clarke will little margin for error just in breaking camp with the team, let alone sticking with the M’s throughout the year.

Kyle Wright To Begin Season On 15-Day IL; Braves To Use Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd In Rotation

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10:51AM: In related Braves roster news, right-handers Nick Anderson and Michael Tonkin will both be in the team’s Opening Day bullpen.  (Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was among those to report the news.)  Anderson and Tonkin will take over the roster spots created with Wright and Raisel Iglesias slated to start the year on the IL.

8:59AM: The battle to decide the Braves’ fifth starter has ended in something of a draw, as now both Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd will be making early turns in the rotation.  According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (Twitter links), Kyle Wright is getting some “extra time” to fully prep for the season in the wake of some shoulder soreness, thus creating an opportunity for both Shuster and Dylan to make starts.  Wright will go onto the 15-day injured list, The Athletic’s David O’Brien notes, but it seems possible that Wright will leave the IL when first eligible.

Wright’s usual offseason routine was interrupted in January when he received a cortisone shot in his right shoulder.  That delayed Wright’s normal plan by roughly three weeks, and he didn’t make his first Spring Training start until last Monday.  The Braves intend to give Wright an outing in minor league spring camp, and then a Triple-A start before bringing him onto the active roster.  Counting the three days of IL backdating, Wright is seemingly in line to make his 2023 debut during the Braves’ series with the Reds from April 10-12.

Atlanta opens its season on March 30, has an off-day on March 31, and then has a game every day until April 13.  This busy early schedule creates an early need for a full rotation, though Bowman writes that Dodd may not officially break camp, as the Braves will wait to call him up until his planned start on April 4 in St. Louis.  That will give Atlanta a little more time in figuring out its 40-man roster maneuverings, as neither Dodd or Shuster are currently on the 40-man.  (Other non-roster invitees like Jesse Chavez, Ehire Adrianza, and Kevin Pillar also look like solid bets to make the team, creating more need for extra space.)

Shuster seemingly has the slight edge over Dodd in the race to stick in the rotation, but now both southpaws will get a further opportunity to audition on the big league stage.  It is a somewhat surprising outcome that didn’t appear to be on the radar when Atlanta started Spring Training, given that Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, and Michael Soroka were the likeliest contenders to be the fifth starter.  However, Shuster and Dodd both pitched so well that the Braves narrowed the field down to the two rookies, who will each be making their Major League debuts.

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