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Quick Hits: Nationals, Cards, Liberatore, Draft, Torkelson

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The Nationals are among the teams who released several minor leaguers within the last week, with Brittany Ghiroli and Emily Waldon of The Athletic (subscription required) reporting that the defending World Series champions cut somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 players.  As for the remaining players in Washington’s farm system, the club will be paying them $300 per week through the month of June — down from the $400 weekly stipend that has become the norm throughout baseball, as per the March agreement between the players and the league.  “The Nationals are believed to be the only Major League team paying a lower stipend amount,” Ghiroil and Waldon write, though the Athletics announced earlier this week that they would be ending the stipend entirely at the end of May.

Just as the A’s were heavily criticized for their decision, the Nats have already taken some heat for the stipend cut, considering that the total amount of money being saved is so relatively minor for a billion-dollar franchise.  As one unnamed Nationals minor league put it, even a reduced stipend is better than being released, but “For us lucky ones still getting help, it’s bittersweet. I wish the owners really weighed how much that $100 they cut us back is saving them versus how much it helps put food on the table for us and our families.”

[UPDATE: Nationals reliever Sean Doolittle tweeted that he and the rest of Washington’s Major League roster will be supporting their organization’s minor leaguers by “committing funds to make whole the lost wages from their weekly stipends.  All of us were minor leaguers at one point in our careers and we know how important the weekly stipends are for them and their families during these uncertain times.”]

More from around baseball…

  • The January swap with the Rays that saw the Cardinals acquire left-hander Matthew Liberatore “could be a monster trade” for the Redbirds, an American League scout tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “There is a small clutch of the best pitching prospects in the minors, and I don’t think you could find 10 better than Liberatore,” the scout said, reinforcing the belief that the Cards have quickly been able to reload its young pitching depth (and its left-handed depth, specifically, as Liberatore and 2019 first-rounder Zack Thompson are both southpaws).  The full trade saw St. Louis and Tampa swap draft picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B — the Cards got the lower of the two selections — and exchange Liberatore and minor league catcher Edgardo Rodriguez for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena.  Since Martinez and Arozarena were both somewhat blocked in the crowded Cardinals’ depth chart, moving them for a very promising young starter indeed looks like a shrewd move for St. Louis, as the Cards lost little from their big league roster.
  • While much of the discussion surrounding the 2020 draft has focused on its reduced length, the biggest story talent-wise has been the amount of quality college pitching available.  “It’s just remarkable how loaded this class is in terms of arms,” an area scout tells Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, with a team scouting director also noting that “the depth and the amount of really good arms, I don’t know if I’ve seen one like this in my lifetime.”  As a result, due to the abbreviated nature of this year’s draft, there should be several good college pitchers available in free agency once the draft’s five rounds are complete.
  • The first overall pick, however, is expected to be a position player, as Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has been increasingly thought to be the Tigers’ 1-1 choice.  Detroit scouting director Scott Pleis didn’t drop any hints to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, saying that “we continue to talk” about who the top pick might be, with “five or six guys” included in the final list of potential candidates.  Beyond Torkelson, Callis hears from sources that the Tigers are also looking at several other of the consensus top prospects of this year’s class, such as Austin Martin, Asa Lacy, Nick Gonzales, and Emerson Hancock.  “Officials with other clubs would be surprised if Detroit doesn’t take Torkelson,” Callis writes.

Amateur Draft Notes: Torkelson, Wilcox, Mock Drafts

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The first round of the 2020 amateur draft begins on June 10, and the growing feeling is that the Tigers will take Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick.  Torkelson comes into the draft on the heels of an outstanding college career, which Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill notes could have reached historic proportions had Torkelson’s 2020 campaign not been cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic.  The young slugger had a shot at breaking the NCAA record for walks in a season, and Torkelson sat just two home runs away from setting a new Arizona State school record for career homers (a record held by longtime Braves third baseman Bob Horner).  Though Torkelson will miss out on these individual accomplishments and a shot at being part of a potential national championship contender, his Arizona State tenure has already been the stuff of legend, especially considering that Torkelson came to the program on a relatively low profile after not being drafted by a Major League team when coming out of high school.

Some more on the draft…

  • The NCAA’s decision to give an extra year of eligibility to spring sports will give at least some players extra signing leverage in this abbreviated five-round draft.  As The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) writes, right-hander Cole Wilcox has the option of returning to the University of Georgia for a do-over of his sophomore year if doesn’t receive a signing bonus to his liking, which “some in the industry believe” is a “top-half-of-first-round” asking price.  (So, in the neighborhood of $4MM, based on the recommended slot prices.)  It isn’t out of the question that the hard-throwing Wilcox is selected within the top 15 anyway based on his strong track record at Georgia, though many prognosticators have the righty in the bottom half of the first round.
  • Speaking of prognostication, let’s give into some mock draft action!  The latest projections are up from The Athletic’s Keith Law (subscription required), Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and all have identical top threes: Torkelson to the Tigers, Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin to the Orioles with the second overall pick, and Texas A&M southpaw Asa Lacy to the Marlins third overall.  Assuming Detroit does take Torkelson, the O’s are favored to select Martin or at least another position player — Collazo and Callis note that Baltimore could opt to take New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales, while Law has heard “rumblings” that Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad could be the pick if the Orioles wanted to spread around their draft pool money.
  • All three mock drafts are well worth a read, as Law, Collazo, and Callis share some reports and rumors about which prospects could be on various teams’ radars, and what particular teams may or may not be targeting on their draft boards.  For instance, the Royals (who pick fourth overall) seem to be leaning towards picking a position player this after focusing on adding pitchers in recent drafts, which could lead them to Gonzales or Florida high school outfielder Zac Veen.  Callis has K.C. taking Gonzales while Collazo and Law have the Royals taking Veen, with Law adding that he has “heard they’re cool on Gonzales.”  Then again, a pitcher might not be out of the question either for Kansas City, as Collazo writes “lately, we’ve also heard Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer linked to this pick.”  As for Wilcox’s placement, Callis projects the Mets (19th overall), Law projects the Nationals (22nd), and Collazo projects the Yankees (28th).

AL East Notes: Severino, Red Sox, Snell, Boras

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After undergoing Tommy John surgery during Spring Training, Yankees right-hander Luis Severino tells George A. King III of the New York Post that “things have been progressing well” in the initial stages of the rehabilitation process.  Severino has been working with team trainers at the Yankees’ Spring Training facility in Tampa “since the day after I had my surgery,” and said he has “been making steady progress — lifting, doing exercises.  Since three months ago…I feel way better.  I’m doing everything I need to do right now so that I can start throwing this summer.”

Given the normal 12-15 month timeline attached to TJ recovery, it would be a boon for both Severino and the Yankees if he is able to return by Opening Day 2021 (assuming next season begins as usual in late March), and it’s probably more realistic to assume he’ll miss at least a month of a regularly-scheduled 2021 campaign.  Severino already missed almost all of the 2019 season due to lat and shoulder injuries, tossing only 20 1/3 total innings over the regular season and postseason.

More from around the AL East…

  • Had the season begun as expected, the Red Sox “would have had some tough decisions to get down to 26” players on the Opening Day roster, manager Ron Roenicke tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.  Now, since Major League rosters are expected to be expanded by anywhere from two to four extra players, it “will give us a chance to keep some players we like,” Roenicke said.  This is one small silver lining amidst a wholly unique season that will present many difficulties for all teams, as Abraham outlines how Roenicke is trying to keep his team prepared both in the short term and in preparation of whatever shape the 2020 season (if it happens at all) could take.  Providing updates on a few players, Roenicke said starters Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and Ryan Weber have been throwing two simulated innings per week in order to stay fresh, with the idea being that the quartet can quickly ramp up to being able to toss five innings by the end of an abbreviated second Spring Training.
  • Rays left-hander Blake Snell recently became the Boras Corporation’s newest client, which agent Scott Boras calls “a great opportunity for us,” the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writes.  “We consider him an elite performer who is still at the beginning of his career,” Boras said, noting that his agency’s “resources” in both on-field preparation and off-the-field endeavors make for “a great combination” with Snell.  The southpaw’s contract runs through the 2023 season, and while there isn’t any immediate opening for the Boras Corporation to receive a commission on a future deal, Boras repeatedly dismissed the suggestion that his change in representation could be a step towards finding a new team.  “The main idea right now is that we’re going to work with the team to provide every resource and to make [Snell] a better Ray,” Boras said.

Brooks Pounders, Deck McGuire Among Rays’ Minor League Releases

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The Rays have released “20 or so” minor league players from their system, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  The full list of names has yet to be announced, though two non-roster invitees to Tampa’s Spring Training camp have been cut.  Topkin reports that right-hander Brooks Pounders was one of the releases, and righty Deck McGuire tweeted earlier this week that he had also been released.  Pounders and McGuire both inked minors contracts with the Rays back in February.

Pounders has the more recent experience on a Major League diamond, tossing 7 1/3 relief innings for the Mets in 2019 but spending much of the season at the Triple-A level (for the Mets’ and Indians’ affiliates).  Originally a second-round pick for the Pirates in the 2009 draft, Pounders has bounced around to seven different organizations over his pro career, accumulating 45 2/3 frames at the MLB level with the Mets, Rockies, Angels, and Royals over the last four seasons.  While he owns an impressive 9.3 K/9 and 3.92 K/BB rate against big league hitters, Pounders has a career 8.47 ERA, largely due to an ungainly 2.8 HR/9.

McGuire also has a journeyman’s resume, being part of eight different MLB organizations over his career as well as pitching with the Korean Baseball Organization’s Samsung Lions in 2019.  McGuire posted a 5.05 ERA over 112 1/3 innings with the Lions, which is close to his 5.23 ERA over career 51 2/3 Major League innings (with the Reds, Blue Jays, and Angels in 2017-18).  McGuire was selected 11th overall by Toronto in the 2010 draft, though he has yet to find much consistency even at the minor league level, with a 4.31 ERA, 2.33 K/BB rate, and 7.7 K/9 over 1079 2/3 IP.

The two pitchers were competing for jobs in Tampa Bay’s 2020 bullpen, and for what it’s worth, Pounders had tossed four scoreless innings of spring action prior to the coronavirus shutdown.  While the Rays join several other teams in making mass releases to clear room on minor league rosters, Tampa is also one of the teams who has publicly committed to paying its remaining minor leaguers their $400 weekly stipend at least through the end of June.  At that point, Topkin writes that “Rays officials will re-evaluate the plan…based on several factors, such as whether big-leaguers are playing and the potential to stage some form of late-summer minor-league camp or development program.”

The Indians Continue To Benefit From The Bartolo Colon Trade

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Today is Bartolo Colon’s 47th birthday, and I think I join just about every baseball fan in hoping that “Big Sexy” can fulfill his goal of making it back to the majors for one more go-around.  While that extra year would be a nice bonus, Colon has already established an incredible legacy over his 21 MLB seasons, with a list of memories ranging from his 2005 AL Cy Young Award to perhaps the most popular home run of the decade.  Colon has accomplished so much since he first broke into the bigs with the Indians at age 24….and yet though it has been close to 18 years since he last donned a Cleveland uniform, the Tribe continues to benefit from Colon’s time with the franchise.

Let’s flash back to 2002.  After establishing himself as a solid member of the rotation during his first five seasons, Colon was on pace for his lowest ERA yet, as he had posted a 2.55 mark over his first 16 starts and 116 1/3 innings of the 2002 campaign.  (Even if a 3.75 FIP indicates that Colon was perhaps somewhat fortunate to manage that 2.55 ERA.)  The downside was that that the Indians were struggling, as the club was preparing for a rebuild after its long run of winning seasons and frequent playoff appearances from 1994-2001.  That made Colon expendable, and the righty was dealt to the Montreal Expos in a blockbuster trade near the end of June.

While Colon pitched well for the Expos, they came up short in their bid for the postseason in what ended up being their third-to-last year in Montreal.  With the Expos controlled by Major League Baseball at the time and rumors swirling that a new owner would likely move the team, then-general manager Omar Minaya decided that a bold move was necessary to try and reinvigorate both Montreal fans and potential local investors.

As such, Minaya threw all caution to the wind in sending a four-player package of Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens to Cleveland in exchange for Colon’s services.  The veteran Stevens (who didn’t play in the big leagues again after the 2002 season) was something of a throw-in, but let’s look at the other three Expos prospects obtained….

Phillips: The second baseman didn’t break out and reach his All-Star form until after he was dealt to the Reds in April 2006, though indirectly, Phillips helped the Indians land Chris Perez.  Phillips went to Cincinnati for righty Jeff Stevens, who was dealt in December 2008 as part of a three-player package (that also included Chris Archer) to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa.  Cleveland sent DeRosa to the Cardinals in June 2009 for a player to be named later and Perez, who recorded 124 saves and reached two All-Star games over his four-plus seasons with the Tribe.

Sizemore:  The Indians received a more direct contribution from Sizemore, as the center fielder soon blossomed into one of the game’s better all-around players.  Sizemore hit .281/.372/.496 from 2005-08, with the fourth-most fWAR (27.3) of any player in baseball during that four-year stretch.  Unfortunately for both Sizemore and the Indians, injuries curtailed what was looking like a special career, and Sizemore played only 419 games total from 2009-15.

Lee: The southpaw’s 182-game tenure in Cleveland had its ups and downs, though he saved the best for last with an outstanding 2008 season.  Lee won the AL Cy Young Award by leading the league in ERA (2.54), ERA+ (167), BB/9 (1.4), and HR/9 (0.5), while also tossing 223 1/3 innings.

He continued to pitch well into the 2009 season, which leads us to the next offshoot of the Colon trade: the deal that sent Lee to the Phillies at the 2009 trade deadline.  Cleveland picked up another four-player package, this time consisting of Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and minor league righty Jason Knapp.  Baseball America ranked Carrasco, Donald, and Marson within their top 100 prospects list prior to the 2009 season, and Knapp made the 2010 list, though Knapp never ended up reaching the big leagues.  Marson ended up playing 261 games in the Show (253 as a part-time catcher for the Indians), hitting .219/.309/.299 over a career that stretched across six seasons.

The other two pieces of the trade went on to become noteworthy parts of Cleveland baseball history…

Carrasco: The man they call “Cookie” is still on the Tribe’s roster, evolving from prospect to a stalwart member of the rotation.  Beyond his contributions on the field, Carrasco has become a popular leader both in the Indians’ clubhouse and around the sport, as witnessed by the outpouring of support he received last season while battling (and ultimately returning from) a leukemia diagnosis.

Donald: After posting a .672 OPS over 603 plate appearances and 170 games with the Indians from 2010-12, Donald never again played in the Majors.  Since perhaps his most memorable baseball moment was his (ahem) infield single to break up Armando Galarraga’s would-be perfect game in June 2010, you may wonder why Donald merits a “noteworthy” designation.

In short, it’s because Donald was part of one of Cleveland’s most memorable trades of the decade.  Granted, nobody refers to the three-team deal between the Indians, Reds, and Diamondbacks in December 2012 as “the Jason Donald trade” given the other big names (namely Shin-Soo Choo and Didi Gregorius) involved.  That said, given the complexity of such multi-team swaps, perhaps the whole negotiation would have fallen apart if the Tribe hadn’t agreed to send Donald to Cincinnati.

Even if Donald didn’t play a headline role in the exchange, the main point is that the Indians received another four-player package on their end of the trade: Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs.  Albers pitched well out of the Tribe’s bullpen in 2013 before departing in free agency.  Stubbs only spent one year in Cleveland before being traded to Colorado in December 2013 for Josh Outman, who gave the Indians 24 2/3 relief innings of 3.28 ERA ball before being swapped to the Yankees for cash considerations.  Looking at the other two names…

Shaw: The biggest bullpen reinforcement of the group, Shaw became a workhorse of a setup man from 2013-17.  Three times a league-leader in appearances during that five-year stretch, Shaw posted a 3.11 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.8 K/BB rate over 358 2/3 frames in Cleveland.

Bauer: The right-hander was no stranger to controversy over his six-plus seasons with the Indians, though he developed from solid starter to an ace in 2018, posting a 2.21 ERA over 175 1/3 innings and finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting.  Somewhat similar to Lee’s situation, Bauer continued to pitch well enough into the next season that he became part of a major pre-deadline trade.

This three-team swap is a bit fresher in our memory banks, but as a reminder, the Padres, Reds, and Indians combined on a blockbuster that saw Bauer go to Cincinnati while top Reds outfield prospect Taylor Trammell went to San Diego.  The other five players involved in the trade all went to the Indians: Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and prospects Logan Allen, Scott Moss, and Victor Nova.

The “Wild Horse” has already come and gone from Cleveland, as Puig departed for free agency and was still looking for a new team prior to the league-wide transactions freeze.  Acquired to help offset salary and add some pop to the ever-shifting Tribe outfield, Puig hit pretty well during his brief stint with the Indians, slashing .297/.377/.423 over 207 PA, though he managed only two home runs (as opposed to his 22 in 404 PA with the Reds).  Nova is a 20-year-old rookie ball prospect, while MLB Pipeline ranks Moss ranks 18th among all Indians prospects and projects him as a possible back-of-the-rotation starter if he can harness his control.  As for the other two…

Allen: Going into 2019 as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball, Allen badly struggled at the Triple-A level last year.  His hopes at a rebound have been hampered the possibility that the minor league season could be canceled entirely, though Allen could potentially find a role on the 20-player taxi squad backing up an expanded 30-player Cleveland roster.  The southpaw was badly hurt by home runs last season, so the Tribe hope that getting more used to the livelier ball will help Allen get back on track.

Reyes: The 24-year-old slugger got off to a slow start after the trade to Cleveland, but recovered to hit .237/.304/.468 with 10 homers over 194 PA in an Indians uniform.  Reyes will now have to cut down on the strikeouts and become a bit more of a well-rounded hitter in order to fully unlock the hitting potential that is clearly evident from his power numbers.

So to recap, trading Colon in 2002 has led to five current members of the Indians organization.  Over those 18 years since the Expos trade, dealing Colon also directly and indirectly led to a Cy Young Award winner (Lee), another starter with at least one Cy Young-caliber campaign (Bauer), two relievers who delivered consistent results over multiple seasons (Shaw and Perez), four years from an MVP candidate (Sizemore), and other small contributions from a host of other players.  This group all contributed to at least one of the Tribe’s five postseason appearances from 2007-18, and the club now hopes that Carrasco, Reyes, Allen, and company can call be part of Cleveland’s next playoff team.

That adds up to at least two windows of contention, and who knows if future trades or transactions could spin some of those current players on the roster into even bigger contributors down the road.  While the Indians have already gotten so much in return from that 2002 deal, as with seemingly all things involving Bartolo Colon, you never know when another delightful surprise could emerge.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Negotiations To Begin 2020 Season

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As talks continue about the possibility of the 2020 season getting underway, “the greatest differences between the players and owners, for now, remain economic,” Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription required) write in their latest update on the status of the negotiations.  While nothing concrete has been established between the two sides, June 1 is seen as “an informal deadline for negotiations to be completed if the season is to start by early July.”

On Tuesday, the league will present the MLB Players Association with a proposal for how finances and revenues will be divvied up over a shortened 2020 schedule.  Rosenthal and Drellich hear from sources that the owners’ reported original desire for a 50/50 revenue split will not be included in this proposal, though owners will still seek to reduce player salaries in some fashion, as per Major League Baseball’s claim that paying prorated player salaries while still hosting games without any fans in attendance would result in a loss of over $4 billion in free cash flow.

That $4 billion figure was delivered as part of a financial document presented to the MLBPA over a week ago, which naturally resulted in the union requesting for the league to back up this claim with more paperwork and documentation.  According to Rosenthal and Drellich, the league provided the players with some but not all of the requested information this past Friday.  It isn’t clear whether the documentation provided will be sufficient for the MLBPA, or whether there is enough time for the union’s analysts to properly access the league’s financial claims by the informal June 1 deadline.

At least one agent, Seth Levinson of the ACES agency, believes “there isn’t sufficient time,” and that “MLB doesn’t just seek further salary reductions from the players but also their blind faith” that the losses will be as steep as the league suggests.  Levinson also added that “any agreement must protect the players heading into 2021,” as several agents are concerned that the loss of 2020 revenues will result in a crunch for free agents and arbitration-eligible players in the 2020-21 offseason.  To this end, Rosenthal and Drellich write that some agents might prefer some manner of “financial protection for players this offseason” in exchange for players agreeing to accept less than their prorated salaries for 2020 games.

These longer-term issues add another layer of difficult to the talks between Major League Baseball and the players’ union.  The majority of current negotiations are centered around the 2020 season first and foremost, and there are already enough logistical hurdles (both financial and health/safety related) yet to be cleared that it seems difficult at first glance to imagine an agreement being reached by June 1.  That said, the June 1 date only applies to the rumored early-July start date for an 82-game season, so everything could be pushed back or reduced.  The length of the regular season, Rosenthal and Drellich note, is another possible negotiating point between players and owners: “The league also prefers a shorter schedule to enhance the chances of playing the postseason, when greater revenues are assured.”

AL East Notes: Paxton, Rays, Iglesias, Martin

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After undergoing back surgery in early February, Yankees southpaw James Paxton was given a timeline of three-to-four months before he could return to the field.  As we approach the end of that estimated recovery period, Paxton described his back as “a non-issue” in an interview Friday on the YES Network (hat tip to ESPN.com).  “I feel totally healthy, so I’ll be ready to go as soon as the season comes about….I think I’m back to full strength,” Paxton said, noting that he has already thrown an estimated 12-14 bullpen sessions.

If there is any silver lining for the Yankees in this league-wide shutdown, the lack of game action has allowed several injured Yankees to recover without missing any time.  As such, should the 2020 season begin in early July as rumored, New York could have Paxton, Giancarlo Stanton, and possibly Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks all available for the roster.  It will be a particularly important season for Paxton, who is scheduled to hit free agency this winter and projects to be one of the top starters available on the open market.  While the back surgery only adds to Paxton’s not-insubstantial injury history, a big performance in whatever consists of a 2020 season would certainly help Paxton’s case at a healthy multi-year contract in the offseason.

More from the AL East…

  • Rays players will begin limited workouts at Tropicana Field on Monday, and the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin details how the club will take a very measured approach to restarting its preseason preparations.  “There’s a lot more downside to moving too fast than too slow,” GM Erik Neander said.  “Our priority remains the health and safety of our players, staff and their families.  We will learn a lot through this initial, conservative step, and that will serve us well as we continue to ramp up.”  Only small groupings of players will be allowed to work out or use the field at any given time, rather than the entire roster; the Rays will take some time before deciding whether to bring Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Ji-Man Choi back to North America.
  • The Orioles inked Jose Iglesias to a one-year deal last winter with the expectation that the veteran could help both on the field and in the clubhouse.  Third base coach and infield instructor Jose Flores tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that Iglesias already started to develop a mentor/student relationship with young shortstop Richie Martin.  “Josie shares a lot of his ideas, we share with Richie, and he seems to take all that into play,” Flores said.  “And I think Richie has actually become a better infielder just by having Josie working out with him during the course of Spring Training.”
  • It remains to be seen if Martin will make Baltimore’s MLB roster if/when the season gets underway, as while the former Rule 5 pick definitely wasn’t ready for big league competition last year, Martin won’t be able to get any further minor league seasoning if there isn’t any official minor league ball in 2020.  Therefore, Martin could wind up on the “taxi squad” rumored to be planned in support of teams’ Major League rosters, or an expanded 30-man roster could provide room for Martin to land more playing time with the Orioles.  Flores noted that Martin had been playing some second base during spring camp in order to help boost his versatility and chances of making the club as a backup infielder.  For what it’s worth, Martin had also been hitting well before Spring Training was shut down, with an .869 OPS over 30 plate appearances.

Have The Royals Found Another Rule 5 Gem?

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After selecting Joakim Soria out of the Padres’ farm system in the 2006 Rule 5 Draft, it could be argued that the Royals are still in the “playing with house money” honeymoon phase of the Rule 5 process.  After all, even landing a Rule 5 player who can stick on a Major League roster for an entire season is a success, never mind landing a two-time All-Star like Soria through his 2007-11 heyday as Kansas City’s closer.

Eleven years after drafting Soria, it seems like the Royals again struck gold via the Rule 5 process.  While Brad Keller has yet to reach All-Star levels, the right-hander has already enjoyed enough success over his first two MLB seasons that he looks like a solid building block for a young K.C. team.

Keller was an eighth-round pick for the Diamondbacks in the 2013 draft, and through five pro seasons had compiled some decent but unspectacular numbers in the Arizona farm system.  Over 130 1/3 innings for Double-A Jackson in 2017, Keller posted a 4.68 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 1.95 K/BB rate, which wasn’t quite good enough for him to make the grade amidst something of a 40-man roster crunch for the D’Backs.

Coming off a 93-win season and a NLDS appearance in 2017, the Diamondbacks were focused on using much of their available 40-man spaces on players who could potentially provide immediate help in 2018, as GM Mike Hazen explained to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro two years ago.  “Our scouts liked [Keller]. We liked him,” Hazen said.  “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the Major League team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys…that were closer to the big leagues in our mind.”

So, the D’Backs left Keller unprotected in December 2017 draft, and it didn’t take long for another team to pounce on the right-hander.  However, that other team wasn’t actually the Royals, whose spot in the Rule 5 draft order didn’t fall until the #18 spot that year.  Instead it was the Reds who took Keller with the fifth pick, and then promptly dealt him to Kansas City for cash considerations.  (The Royals swung a similar move just one pick later, acquiring sixth pick Burch Smith for cash from the Mets after New York selected Smith out of Tampa Bay’s farm system.)

Smith also ended up spending the entire 2018 season on the K.C. roster, though he was cut loose after posting a 6.92 ERA over 78 innings.  Keller, on the other hand, was much more of an immediate success.  After posting a 2.01 ERA over his first 22 1/3 frames of work out of Kansas City’s bullpen in 2018, Keller was promoted to the rotation and continued to succeed.  The righty had a 3.28 ERA over his 20 starts, striking out 83 batters (against 43 walks) over 118 innings.

Keller’s sophomore year wasn’t quite as impressive, though he still managed a quite respectable 4.19 ERA, 1.74 K/BB, and 6.6 K/9 over 165 1/3 frames, all as a member of the Royals rotation.  It could be argued that Keller was perhaps fortunate to manage that 4.19 mark, as some ERA predictors (4.94 xFIP, 5.23 SIERA) were significantly higher, and batters made much more solid contract off him in 2019 than in 2018.  The Statcast metrics also took a dim view of Keller’s 2019 performance, with a whole lot of blue — as in, below-average — numbers for Keller in comparison to other pitchers in exit velocity, xwOBA, strikeout percentage, and several other categories.

That said, advanced metrics don’t tend to favor low-strikeout hurlers like Keller who specialize in keeping the ball on the ground.  Among pitchers with at least 300 innings tossed over the last two seasons, Keller has the lowest (8.4%) home run rate in baseball, and the second-highest (52%) grounder rate.  These outstanding numbers are particularly valuable in this era of the lively ball, and Keller could further benefit from some improved defense behind him, should Maikel Franco provide any sort of upgrade at third base.

All told, 4.8 fWAR over two seasons already represents a very nice return on the Royals’ initial minor cash outlay to Cincinnati.  Keller doesn’t turn 25 until July, and he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this coming offseason, putting him under the Royals’ control through the 2023 campaign.  Under normal circumstances, Keller could be a player the Royals might have already locked up to a contract extension, and while all extension talks are halted under the current transactions freeze, it wouldn’t be a surprise if K.C. began some talks with Keller’s representatives once regular business gets back underway.

While truly major Rule 5 Draft success stories are relatively few and far between these days, a team only needs to hit on one pick to make the enterprise worthwhile.  Finding a big league talent for virtually nothing is a win for any team, and if that talent is a mid-20’s starting pitcher who looks like he can hang in at least the middle of a big league rotation, the Royals got a valuable boost to their latest rebuilding effort.

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