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Transaction Retrospection: The Charlie Blackmon Extension

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Throughout the Rockies’ franchise history, the team hasn’t been shy about extending key members of the roster.  Colorado’s biggest extension yet could be in the offing, as the Rockies continue to talk with All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a long-term deal that would keep Arenado away from free agency next winter.

If such a contract is worked out, it would easily be the most expensive deal in Rockies’ history, not to mention one of the pricier deals in Major League history.  It would also be the second major extension completed by Jeff Bridich in his time as Colorado’s general manager, coming on the heels of the club’s five-year extension with Charlie Blackmon last spring.  That deal is worth revisiting now, given what we’ve seen about the free agent outfield market (or, really, just the free agent market in general) after a second consecutive slow offseason of signing activity.

Blackmon was 31 at the time of the extension (he turned 32 last July 1), and, like Arenado is now, also a year away from reaching free agency.  Blackmon had posted solid numbers as a part-time player and then as a regular with Colorado in 2013-15, though he stood a big step forward to hit .327/.390/.578 with 66 homers over 1366 plate appearances in 2016-17.  That performance saw Blackmon earn a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons, as well as a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2017.

With the Rockies coming off a postseason appearance in 2017, the team moved to lock up a top performer, agreeing to an extension that guarantees Blackmon at least $94MM from 2019-23.  Blackmon earns $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and then has a player option for another $21MM season in 2022.  He then has another player option year for 2023 worth $10MM in guaranteed money, though another $8MM is available via escalators based plate-appearance thresholds that seem rather readily achievable, or on MVP finishes.  (The deal also technically adjusted Blackmon’s previously agreed-upon $14MM arbitration salary for 2018, turning $2MM of that figure into a signing bonus.)  All told, the extension could max out at $102MM in new money for Blackmon once all is said and done.

Even sticking to the guaranteed $94MM figure, however, Blackmon’s contract already looks like an outlier in the wake of how baseball’s free agent marketplace has evolved over the last two winters.  Manny Machado and Patrick Corbin are the only 2018-19 free agents who earned more than $94MM in guaranteed money this winter.  Bryce Harper will be the third name on this list once he eventually signs, and it’s doubtful that Dallas Keuchel will meet even MLBTR’s four-year/$82MM projected contract, let alone a $94MM deal.

Blackmon’s production also took a bit of a step back in 2018, as he hit .291/.358/.502 with 29 homers over 696 plate appearances.  Still strong numbers, to be sure, though more in the vein of a solidly above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 115 OPS+) than his more elite production (137 wRC+, 136 OPS+) in 2016-17.  On the defensive side, Blackmon had been a below-average but playable center fielder throughout his career, though his glovework fell off (-28 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.6 UZR.150) to such an extent in 2018 that the Rockies will now deploy him as a right fielder this season.

Had Blackmon been a free agent this winter, his most natural comp was another center fielder, A.J. Pollock.  The newly-signed member of the Dodgers outfield lacks Blackmon’s durability and longer track record of production, but Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road).  Pollock landed a five-year deal from the Dodgers worth $60MM in guaranteed money, so even if some teams felt that Blackmon was the better free agent bet, the gap between the two players surely wouldn’t have been $34MM.

With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that Blackmon and his representatives at ACES did a good job in landing that extension last spring.  As a soon-to-be 33-year-old headed for corner outfield duty, as hard to imagine Blackmon would’ve found five years and $94MM in free agency if he had tested the market this winter.

A win for Blackmon, however, doesn’t at all mean that the deal was a “loss” for the Rockies.  As noted, Blackmon was still a very productive hitter in 2019 — drastic home/road splits aren’t as big an issue when you’re the team that plays at Coors Field, naturally.  Blackmon also wouldn’t be the first player to improve at the plate after shifting to a less-demanding defensive position, so getting out of center field could help Blackmon’s bat as well as simply drastically elevating his defensive value.

Could Colorado have re-signed Blackmon to a lesser deal as a free agent had they not extended him a year early?  Potentially, though such a “what-if” scenario is easy to create with 20/20 hindsight (plus, you never know if another team might’ve been particularly keen on signing Blackmon).  As it worked out, the Rockies were able to retain a player they liked both on the field and in the clubhouse, even if it may have been a bit of an overpay.

Let’s also not overlook the big-picture ripple effect of the Blackmon extension as it relates to Arenado.  The third baseman now has solid proof that a Bridich-led front office is willing to pay to keep a homegrown star in the fold, and retain members of what has been a winning core group that has reached consecutive postseasons.  Money-wise, Blackmon’s long-term contract presents no real obstacle to the Rockies being able to afford Arenado, given that negotiations are already taking place and the organization is cognizant of the $200MM+ it will surely take to keep Arenado in the fold.  From a return-on-investment standpoint, Blackmon’s contract also looks like much less of a problem for the Rockies’ payroll than the lack of production they’ve received from recent free agent signings like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, or Bryan Shaw.

It will also be interesting to see how Blackmon’s extension stands in the wider scope of future extensions for star players a season away from free agency.  We’ve already seen some notable extensions this spring, though those deals went to players (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, etc.) who were still arbitration-controlled for several seasons, rather than pending members of the 2019-20 free agent class.  For some of those scheduled free agents who are already in their 30’s, the thought of an extended stint in free agency and/or a lesser contract than expected have surely crossed these players’ minds in the wake of the last two offseasons.

Blackmon’s contract may represent a best-case scenario for such players if they do pursue extensions, as Blackmon and his camp were able to score at what may be the peak of the outfielder’s value and earning potential.  Of course, it takes two to tango, and it remains to be seen if teams besides the Rockies are willing to pay a premium in an extension for a player who isn’t either a true elite veteran (like a Nolan Arenado) or a younger, arbitration-controlled star who could prove to be a bargain if locked up early.  As a team wanting to both win now and to send an early signal to Arenado that they wanted to win the future, however, the Rockies felt Blackmon’s extension was clearly worth the plunge.

Latest On Khris Davis, Athletics

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Feb. 18: Despite Davis’ comments, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the slugger isn’t likely to sign at quite such an affordable rate. A deal for Davis would likely need to reach three years and $45MM, she notes, pointing out that the potential addition of the designated hitter to the National League would only further boost Davis’ market value if it comes to fruition in the near future.

Ultimately, a contract for Davis is his own decision, of course, but it stands to reason that his representatives and the players’ union would strongly dissuade Davis from taking any sort of discount on an extension.

Feb. 17: Extension talks between Khris Davis and the A’s have been taking place for over a year, and the slugger reiterated to media members (including MLB.com’s Jane Lee) on Sunday that his desire is to remain in Oakland.  To this end, Davis is also willing to take a salary cut to make an extension happen, telling Lee that he would be willing to accept $10MM per year if the A’s were to extend through at least the 2021 season.

This would represent a pretty significant salary reduction for Davis, who is set to earn $16.5MM in 2019 after he and the Athletics avoided arbitration by settling on a contract in Davis’ final year of arb-eligibility.  Davis, however, recognized that his market could be limited in free agency next winter.  He’ll be 33 years old on Opening Day of the 2020 season, and he doesn’t offer a well-rounded game — beyond his power bat, Davis is a sub-standard baserunner and defender, and best suited for a DH spot at this stage in his career.  Though he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall (career 125 wRC+) thanks to his huge power, Davis also isn’t a big on-base threat or known to post a high batting average, as per his well-documented streak of four straight seasons with a .247 batting average.

“I don’t want to break the bank.  I want to be happy playing baseball.  I’m not trying to max out the dollars,” Davis said.  “$16 million, this is the top for me. I don’t want more than that. I’ll probably have to take a cut, and that’s fine, as long as I’m here.”

It’s an unusually public stance for a player to take, and perhaps one that Davis’ agent and/or the MLBPA might have concerns about given how the union is facing a league-wide slowdown on free agent salaries.  From Oakland’s perspective, the club may feel that it has enough leverage to perhaps avoid an extension whatsoever, taking the gamble that Davis might still be eager to re-sign at a discount after the season, even if he posts more big numbers.  Extending Davis even at a modest two-year deal for around $20MM through 2021 still carries some risk for the A’s now, as a lower-payroll team like the Athletics can hardly afford even a $10MM payroll albatross should Davis’ production fall off.

Still, in a vacuum, Davis’ comments aren’t too far removed from any highly-paid veteran player acknowledging that their next contract will be of lesser value, or a player who prioritizes a certain team or playing for a contender over a wider scope of free agent choices.  Davis’ home run totals have also allowed him to capture $32MM over his three arbitration years, so he is already more than secure financially.  As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted earlier this winter, contract length “is far more important to Davis than the annual value of the contract,” and Davis told reporters today that he hopes to keep wearing an A’s jersey for “at least three more years.”

“It’s not a good thing being a free agent right now,” Davis said. “I’m already 31. I don’t know if I’m too old. There’s a lot of things that run through my head.“

Quick Hits: Owens, Stroman, Wright, Beckham, Rookie

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Athletics assistant GM/director of player personnel Billy Owens has been rumored as “a strong candidate” to become the next Giants general manager, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Farhan Zaidi, the Giants’ newly-hired president of baseball operations, knows Owens well from their time together in Oakland’s front office, and Zaidi is one of several voices in Slusser’s piece who praise Owens’ ability to scout and identify talent (not to mention describe that talent in legendarily elaborate scouting reports).  If there is one flaw in Owens’ resume, it could be his love of scouting prevents him from amassing the type of executive experience necessary to run a front office.  That said, Owens has been sought after by other organizations, and he interviewed for the Phillies’ GM job in 2015, leading to speculation that he could eventually leave Oakland for a higher-profile job — perhaps even reuniting with Zaidi in the Bay Area.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Marcus Stroman’s blunt comments about the Blue Jays’ offseason seem to hint at an eventual parting of the ways between the team and the right-hander, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi opines.  Stroman’s frankness probably didn’t help his chances at either a contract extension or a trade, though if he has a good first half and erases any question marks lingering from his mediocre 2018 season, Stroman will surely become an intriguing trade chip for the Jays at the deadline.
  • The Red Sox plan to use Steven Wright as a full-time reliever this season, MLB.com’s Ian Browne writes, with manager Alex Cora casting Wright as a potential multi-inning threat.  At first glance, a knuckleballer would seem like an unusually durable option to relegate to the bullpen, though Wright is just happy to be pitching in any capacity after two injury-plagued seasons.  There is also the possibility for higher-profile assignments within Boston’s pen, given the team’s lack of an established closer.
  • Gordon Beckham chose to sign the Tigers over some offers from other teams because they offered the best shot at regular Major League at-bats, the veteran infielder told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News and other reporters.  The idea of more time in the minors isn’t appealing to Beckham, to the point that “if it doesn’t work out here, I might be done” with his ten-year MLB career, though he also noted that better health and a revamped swing have him feeling optimistic about the coming season.
  • Right-hander Rookie Davis is close to a new minor league contract and Spring Training invite with an unknown team, The Athletic’s Emily Waldon reports (Twitter link), adding that the Pirates have been in touch with Davis.  Perhaps best known as one of the prospects sent by the Yankees to the Reds as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade in December 2015, Davis tossed 27 innings for Cincinnati in 2017 and then underwent hip surgery that October.  He pitched only 26 1/3 innings in the Reds’ farm system last season and became a free agent in November.

NL Notes: Robertson, Holland, Cardinals, Moose, Cubs

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David Robertson decided to act as his own agent while jumping into free agency this winter, eventually landing a two-year, $23MM deal from the Phillies (plus a $12MM club option for 2021).  While the final result was successful, Robertson told Philly.com’s Scott Lauber that he had a few nagging doubts once other relievers came off the board and he was still unsigned as the calendar turned to 2019.  “That was probably one of the times during the process when I kind of thought, ’Am I doing the right thing?’ ” Robertson said. “But I tried to stay calm and level-headed and see the bigger picture and know that I have a good set of skills, that the right teams I had spoken to were interested, and it was just a matter of figuring it out and getting an actual deal done.”  The self-representation stance also created an interesting dynamic on the other side of the negotiating table, as Phillies GM Matt Klentak admitted “when you’re talking directly to a player about contracts, sometimes I found myself being a little more guarded with what I would say than I might be with an agent.”

Some more from around the National League…

  • Greg Holland had a much rougher trip through free agency in the 2017-18 offseason.  The veteran reliever described his quest to sign a contract and subsequent rough 2018 season to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale as a situation that “snowballed for me and spiraled out of control for me.”  Holland’s services were weighed down by a qualifying offer, and he said that talks with the Rockies abruptly ended after Colorado pivoted to sign Wade Davis rather than wait for Holland to further test the market.  As a result, Holland didn’t find a new team until he signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals on Opening Day, and the lack of a proper Spring Training led to disastrous on-field results.  “Physically, I felt great, I felt healthy.  But you’re throwing to college guys, and a week later you’re pitching in the major leagues in a tie game,” Holland said.  “You can only emulate so much of a big-league game….The quicker you can get into a scenario where you’re facing Major League talent on a consistent basis, you’re going to be more successful.”  This winter, Holland signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Diamondbacks, as the right-hander looks to get his career back on track.
  • Holland’s slow start could factor into the Cardinals’ decision about pursuing any current free agents this spring, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  President of baseball operations John Mozeliak implied that if the team did add any new faces on minor league deals, a stint in extended Spring Training could be required or even “demanded” of any new signing.  “So, lesson learned from last year perhaps?  I think for sure,” Mozeliak said.  “You have to take something away from that. The outcome [with Holland] was not what we wanted. I think we did learn our lesson.”  Goold also observes that the Cards could face something of a roster crunch as they juggle multiple out-of-options players, so some trades could potentially come later in the spring.
  • Mike Moustakas was hoping to return to the Brewers, and the third baseman reportedly turned down a multi-year offer from another team, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Moustakas and the Brew Crew agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal today that includes a mutual option for 2020, providing at least a chance at a longer-term stay in Milwaukee for the third baseman, though mutual options are rarely exercised.  The Angels, Phillies, and Padres were all known to have at least checked in about Moustakas at various points this offseason, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin notes that San Diego’s interest was “tempered.”
  • Potential new additions have “not been a heavy part of the discussion” between Cubs skipper Joe Maddon and the front office, Maddon told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  “That doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen; I’m not saying that,” Maddon said.  “But…I anticipate what you see showing up tomorrow [at camp], the [Opening Day] group’s going to be derived from that group.”  It has been a quiet offseason for a Cubs team that is seemingly dealing with strict budget restraints, as the Northsiders try to stay under the $246MM payroll mark (to avoid a larger luxury tax penalty).

Padres Reportedly Offering $250MM Or More To Machado, Harper

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8:08PM: Rival general managers have been told that Machado’s offer from the Padres is at least eight years/$240MM with deferred money, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).  Some other GMs, however, have been told that Machado has been offered $280MM.

7:42PM: The Padres are thought to have offered Manny Machado a contract in the neighborhood of eight years and $250MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), while the club has reportedly issued an even larger offer to Bryce Harper.  The exact total of the Machado offer is, as Heyman noted, an estimate, as that deal could include deferred money or some adjustment based on California’s higher taxation rates.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (also via Twitter) believes the Padres’ offer to Machado is beyond the $250MM mark, though Acee isn’t certain about the number of years involved in the contract.

While still short of the potential record-setting numbers thrown around for both Harper and Machado prior to the start of free agency, and even seemingly still shy of the $300MM threshold, it’s worth noting that only three contracts in baseball history (Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM deal with the Marlins, and Alex Rodriguez’s deals with the Rangers and Yankees) have topped the $250MM plateau.  The Padres’ two offers are more akin to the type of long-term deals many expected the two free agent superstars to receive en masse this winter.

Either deal would represent easily the biggest contract in the history of the Padres franchise, far outpacing the $144MM signed by Eric Hosmer last offseason.  While San Diego has never traditionally been a big spender, MLBTR’s Rob Huff recently made the case that the team is capable of handling the giant contract required to land Machado or Harper.  Hosmer and Wil Myers (at admittedly hefty salaries) are the only contracts on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus the Padres have an inexpensive core of talent headed to the big leagues in the form of their top-rated minor league system.  Between some creative contractual measures like deferrals, opt-outs, a dual option (a recent favorite of Scott Boras, Harper’s agent), there certainly seems to be room to fit a mega-contract under San Diego’s payroll going forward.

Padres executives have personally met with both Harper and Machado in recent weeks, and San Diego’s late entry as a suitor for both players seems to have been inspired by the fact that both are still on the market this deep into the offseason.  In short, the Padres could be a classic “mystery team” scenario — the unexpected club that emerges as a late bidder and potentially walks away with a star.  It should be noted that the Padres surprised many by signing Hosmer last year, and also when they landed James Shields in February 2015, during A.J. Preller’s news-making (and ultimately ill-fated) first offseason as San Diego’s general manager.

Reports from earlier today suggested that the Phillies were considered as the favorites to sign Harper, though connected teams like the White Sox, Giants, and Nationals hadn’t yet been ruled out.  Machado’s market has been more limited, with only the Phillies and White Sox known to be clear bidders, and the Yankees perhaps on the outskirts looking for a shorter-term deal.  The White Sox had reportedly made a bid of seven years and $175MM to Machado, though his agent strongly denied those numbers were accurate.

NL West Notes: Machado, Padres, Rockies, Maybin, Kelly

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The Padres continue to be linked to Manny Machado on the rumor mill, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) provides a bit of history on San Diego’s pursuit of the star infielder.  It wasn’t until late January that the Padres began to “seriously contemplate” the idea of signing Machado, due to his high asking price and the team’s own hesitation about Machado’s well-documented history of borderline dirty play and a perceived lack of hustle.  This led to what one source described as an “ungodly” amount of background work from the team about Machado, and given the Padres’ burgeoning interest, it appears as though their questions have been answered to their satisfaction.  In fact, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan hears from two sources that the Padres “are enamored with” Machado, and see him as the veteran centerpiece amidst the club’s upcoming influx of highly-rated minor leaguers.  There has been some speculation that Machado, a Miami native, was favoring East Coast teams over West Coast teams, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) hears that Machado is looking for the best deal, with geography not a factor.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Also from Passan’s piece, he reports that the Rockies have been discussing extensions with some of their young starters.  No names are mentioned, though it’s fair to assume that names like Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, and perhaps Jon Gray or Antonio Senzatela could be on Colorado’s radar as long-term pieces.  Of that group, Freeland, Marquez, and Senzatela don’t become arbitration-eligible until next winter, while Anderson and Gray each have two arb years remaining.  As such, there isn’t any tremendous urgency to get an extension worked out with any of these hurlers — as Passan notes, current talks could be more about laying some groundwork for more substantive negotiations next spring.  Then again, each pitcher is his own unique case, and it could be that at least one could be eager to lock in a guaranteed payday rather than risk injury, or perhaps a performance dropoff while pitching at Coors Field.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently profiled Freeland as an extension candidate, arguing that a five-year, deal in the range of $35MM-$37MM would seem like a fair contract for the 25-year-old southpaw, who finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018.
  • Cameron Maybin received interest from multiple teams this winter, though the veteran outfielder told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group that he chose to sign with the Giants due to the opportunity for playing time, and because of Buster Posey’s recent tweet about the club being “an organization that wants to win.”  Maybin has only reached the postseason once in his 12-year career, though the trip was a memorable one, as Maybin won a World Series ring as a member of the 2017 Astros.  Of course, the Giants don’t profile as the most obvious potential contender going into the 2019, though there’s still plenty of veteran talent on hand if everyone can stay healthy.
  • Carson Kelly is eager to finally get a chance at regular MLB playing time, the new Diamondbacks catcher tells The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required).  Acquired by Arizona as part of the Paul Goldschmidt blockbuster, Kelly will see much more action with the D’Backs than he did as the backup behind workhorse Yadier Molina in St. Louis.  Molina’s continued longevity meant that Kelly, a former second-round draft pick and top-60 prospect in the sport, became an expendable piece.  “In the big leagues, I’ve only had a chance to fail.  I’ve never really had a chance to grow,” Kelly said, noting that he found himself pressing at the plate when with the Cardinals since he so rarely got a chance to play.  While the Diamondbacks’ three-catcher plan means that Kelly still won’t get a full everyday-catcher workload, Buchanan writes that “Kelly figures to be Catcher 1A,” and could end up getting more at-bats if he plays well.

Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

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Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal.  Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear.  (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.)  More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
  • While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball.  That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
  • Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome.  There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary.  This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season.  Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason.  He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
  • The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link).  Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017.  The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners.  Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017.  Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
  • “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies.  These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

Indians Increasingly Unlikely To Trade Corey Kluber

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“There is almost no chance” the Indians deal ace right-hander Corey Kluber before pitchers and catchers report to Cleveland’s Spring Training camp on Thursday, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  This would seemingly close on the door entirely on a Kluber trade, as Morosi notes that “it’s believed that the team won’t be receptive to active trade conversations during Spring Training,” and talks also wouldn’t take place during the season unless the Tribe fell out of contention by the July trade deadline.

Rumors have swirled around Kluber for months, since news broke in early November that the Indians were open to discussing any of their veteran players in an effort to cut payroll.  Beyond Kluber, names such as Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, and Yan Gomes were also floated as potential trade chips.  As the offseason progressed, the Tribe ended up dealing Alonso, Encarnacion and Gomes (while solidifying Carrasco as a long-term piece by signing him to an extension).

With some financial breathing room established, there seemed to be less chance that Kluber or Bauer would also be dealt.  Cleveland’s high asking price also surely played a role, as the Tribe reportedly would only move either pitcher for a prospect package akin to what the White Sox received from the Red Sox for Chris Sale.  The Reds, Yankees, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers were all rumored to be discussing Kluber at one point or another this winter, though barring a late-breaking change of heart, it doesn’t seem like the two-time Cy Young Award winner is going anywhere.

Kluber’s third-place finish in the 2018 AL Cy Young race unlocked up to $12MM worth of extra bonus money in his contract, as his 2019 salary is now $17MM, and his 2020 club option is raised to $17.5MM, and his 2021 club option to $18MM (both option years come with a $1MM buyout).  Even at the $52.5MM maximum over those three seasons, that’s still a very reasonable price for a pitcher who has been one of the game’s best hurlers over the last five years, even for a smaller-market team like Cleveland.  Whereas the first base/DH power of Encarnacion and Alonso could be more readily replaced (by Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers) by the Indians, it would’ve been much harder to fill Kluber’s void atop the rotation, even considering the Tribe’s enviable rotation depth.

Kluber does turn 33 in April, and he did experience both a significant spike in his hard-hit ball rate and a slight velocity drop in 2018, so the argument could be made that the Indians would’ve been prudent in selling high.  Still, Kluber hardly looked like a pitcher in decline last year, and there’s relatively little long-term risk involved for the Tribe since 2019 is the right-hander’s last guaranteed year.  For a Cleveland team that intends on another playoff run this season, trading Kluber seems like it only would’ve been a consideration if another club had been willing to overpay.  At worst, the Tribe has collected some intel on a potential Kluber market should they indeed end up exploring their options at the trade deadline.

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