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Cafardo’s Latest: Gallardo, Dunn, Gordon, Maeda, Rays, Hill

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Nick Cafardo shares his Cooperstown ballot and some hot stove items in his latest column for the Boston Globe…

  • Alan Nero, Yovani Gallardo’s agent, said he had talked with teams over the last week but nothing has moved forward with his client’s situation.  The Royals, Astros and Orioles were all linked to Gallardo two weeks ago, and since those teams are also finalists for Scott Kazmir’s services, Cafardo figures the two pitchers have somewhat shared markets at the moment.
  • It’s looking as if the Marlins may trade lefty Mike Dunn, as Miami has received interest in the reliever.  Dunn posted a 4.50 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.24 K/BB rate over 54 innings in 2015, a bit of a down year following very good seasons in 2013-14.  ERA indicators and advanced metrics, however, don’t show too much of a difference between Dunn in 2014 and 2015 aside from an increase in home run rate (6% to 11.1%) and walk rate (3.47 to 4.83).  Dunn battled severe control problems early in his career, and Cafardo says that Dunn’s rise in walk rate has scared a few teams away.  The southpaw is entering the last year of a two-year extension that will pay him $3.45MM in 2016.
  • Alex Gordon “prefers to stay in Kansas City, though that dream may be fading.”  According to reports earlier in the week, the Royals offered Gordon a four-year deal worth around $12MM-$13MM per season, and Gordon’s agents told the club that it has “no chance” of re-signing him at the moment.
  • The Dodgers are seen as the favorites for Kenta Maeda given their need for pitching, though Cafardo also says L.A. is looking at trading for Jake Odorizzi “and/or” Alex Cobb from the Rays.  Odorizzi has already been linked to the Dodgers in rumors and I would have to think that Los Angeles would just target one Rays pitcher since the prospect cost for both would be overwhelming (even if Cobb will miss at least half of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery).
  • Rich Hill tells Cafardo that the Athletics’ “immediate” and persistent interest, pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum and the presence of pitching coach Curt Young (Hill’s former pitching coach in Boston) all factored into his decision to sign a one-year, $6MM contract with Oakland.  Hill also noted that the A’s are “giving me a chance to make those 32 starts,” and according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan at the time of the signing, Hill turned down a larger offer from another team due to Oakland’s promise of a regular rotation spot.

Dodgers To Sign Elian Herrera

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The Dodgers and utilityman Elian Herrera have agreed to a contract, as revealed by Herrera himself via his Twitter account.  It’s a minor league deal and Herrera will be invited to the Dodgers’ big league Spring Training camp, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group reports.

Herrera, who turns 31 in February, is back with the club that originally signed him as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2003.  He spent his first two MLB seasons with L.A. before being claimed off waivers by Milwaukee following the 2013 campaign.  Though Herrera is still a season away from arbitration eligibility, he was non-tendered by the Brewers earlier this month in a move to create roster space.

Over four seasons and 639 plate appearances in the bigs, Herrera has a .253/.306/.360 slash line and eight career homers.  Seven of those home runs came last year as Herrera received some significant playing time (277 PA in 83 games) with the Brewers and he posted a .684 OPS.  The switch-hitter has generally even career splits from both sides of the plate, though he performed significantly better against righties than lefties in 2015.  Herrera also delivered a big .904 OPS in 233 for the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate last year and has put up solid hitting numbers over 3050 minor league PA.

Herrera’s calling card has been his versatility, as he’s made at least 10 starts at second, third, short and all three outfield spots in his Major League career.  Most of his playing time has come at second and third, so Herrera could join Micah Johnson as depth behind Chase Utley, or he could be an insurance policy if Justin Turner isn’t fully recovered from knee surgery.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Iwakuma, Payrolls, Gordon, Orioles

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We at MLB Trade Rumors tip our caps to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, who announced today that he is leaving the newspaper after a decade of fine work covering the Orioles.  Connolly’s name is a familiar one to MLBTR readers, as he has been a long-time source for Orioles information — just last week, in fact, Connolly broke the news that the O’s had agreed to sign Hyun-soo Kim.  We wish Dan all the best in his post-Sun endeavors and selfishly hope he keeps writing about baseball in some capacity in the future.

Onto some stocking-stuffer news items as we head into the birthday of Hall-of-Famers Rickey Henderson, Nellie Fox and Pud Galvin, a.k.a. Christmas Day…

  • Yoenis Cespedes’ market has been somewhat slow to develop, though “the Tigers appear to be sitting back waiting for” the free agent outfielder, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Cespedes’ asking price may also be dropping as the offseason rolls along.  Detroit, Cespedes’ former team, has been linked to the slugger on the rumor mill but Tigers GM Al Avila said during the Winter Meetings that his team was out on both Cespedes and Alex Gordon.  That stance could change, of course, if Cespedes could be had at a lower price, though that feeling undoubtedly applies to more teams than just the Tigers.  The Angels, Orioles, Royals and Giants have also been rumored to have some level of interest in Cespedes this offseason.  Tim Dierkes predicted Cespedes for a six-year, $140MM contract while ranking him sixth on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.
  • The Mariners’ somewhat unique re-signing of Hisashi Iwakuma and his first contact with the M’s is chronicled by Fangraphs’ Tony Blengino, who was working as a special assistant to the GM in Seattle when Iwakuma was first signed by the club.  Injury concerns have plagued Iwakuma throughout his career — in Japan, possibly scuttling an agreement to join the A’s in 2011, during his stint as a Mariner and a red-flag physical that caused the Dodgers to back away from a three-year agreement.  Blengino also provides some interesting background into how teams approach physicals, as “there’s a fine line between being ’hurt’ and ’injured,’ and an MRI can find damage in just about any shoulder or elbow….It all comes down to the injury risk, in conjunction with the anticipated player production and dollar investment.”
  • A club’s payroll figures consists of far more than just the salaries of the 25-man roster, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times illustrates using the Mariners as an example.
  • Alex Gordon checks the boxes of everything the Royals would want in a franchise player, yet as Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, the financial realities of a mid-market franchise make it unrealistic or even unwise for the Royals to splurge and re-sign the outfielder.  As was reported yesterday, there may be “no chance” of a reunion between the two sides if the Royals’ best offer is only four years and between $48MM-$52MM, a dollar figure Gordon may end up doubling on the open market.
  • Hyun-soo Kim had a “follow up” to his first physical with the Orioles that caused a delay in the club’s official announcement of their contract with the Korean outfielder, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  Despite the delay, “Kim never was in real danger of failing his physical,” so it appears the O’s were just being cautious.
  • In a separate item from Kubatko, he provides “non-update updates” on several bits of Orioles offseason business, noting that there haven’t been any new developments in the team’s talks with free agents like Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo or Scott Kazmir.

Pirates Notes: McCutchen, Melancon, Watson

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Here’s the latest from PNC Park…

  • Andrew McCutchen is under contract for two more seasons and the Pirates have a $14.5MM club option on him for 2018 that is right now a lock to be exercised.  Even with up to three years of control remaining, however, ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) believes the Bucs should open negotiations with McCutchen’s agents this spring in order to give both sides some idea if an extension is even possible.  The Pirates would have to offer a deal well beyond their usual comfort zone just to have a chance at locking McCutchen up past his age-31 season, and McCutchen would have to be willing to accept something below market value.  If there’s no common ground, Olney suggests Pittsburgh should start seeing what they could get for McCutchen in a trade, perhaps even as early as this summer.
  • Mark Melancon’s $10MM projected arbitration salary has made him a trade candidate this offseason, though Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wonders if the Pirates have saved enough money in other transactions to be able to afford keeping the closer in 2016.  With the Bucs already suffering notable losses in the rotation and infield, Sawchik argues that the club could retrench around its excellent bullpen rather than trading from an area of strength.
  • How good, in fact, has Pittsbugh’s bullpen been?  Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan notes that Melancon and Tony Watson were the two best relievers in baseball from 2013-15 as per the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric.  The 2015 Pirates bullpen had a collective 11.8 WPA, the second-highest single-year total in history dating back to 1974.  Watson is also arbitration-eligible this winter, and MLBTR projects him to earn $4.6MM in his second time through the arb process.

Reactions To The Daniel Murphy Signing

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The Nationals got some last-minute Christmas shopping done by agreeing to a three-year, $37.5MM deal with Daniel Murphy today.  Here’s some of the early reaction to the signing…

  • The Nationals asked about Murphy at the trade deadline in 2014 and have long liked him, Mark Zuckerman tweets.  Murphy was an even better fit given the Nats’ need for a solid left-handed hitter in their lineup.
  • Murphy’s lefty swing might’ve been a key factor in his signing, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  Rosenthal had heard that Murphy was a “low priority” for Washington as the team looked for second base alternatives after a proposed trade for Brandon Phillips fell apart.  Since the Nats had such a glaring need for a left-handed hitter, that gave Murphy the edge over fellow free agent Howie Kendrick (a right-handed hitter) or other trade options.
  • In another set of tweets from Rosenthal, he believes the qualifying offer played a role in Murphy’s contract.  Any team signing Murphy would’ve had to give up a first-rounder (or second-rounder, in the case of a protected pick) as compensation, so the Nats had to surrender the 17th overall pick in the draft.  Since that pick had a rough valuation of $10MM, that “amounts to a tax” beyond what the team was willing to pay Murphy.  If teams were hesitant about giving up a pick for Murphy, that may well have depressed his market; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thought Murphy would sign for a four-year/$56MM deal this offseason.
  • Though Murphy and Anthony Rendon can both play second and third, MLB.com’s William Ladson sees Murphy and Danny Espinosa as the current favorites to be Washington’s Opening Day middle infielders (Twitter links).  Since Murphy is a below-average defender, however, Ladson sees the Nats acquiring a glove-first bench option to spell Murphy in the late innings of games.  Espinosa himself might eventually fill this role, though that will depend on when or if Trea Turner is able to take over the everyday shortstop job.
  • Murphy going to D.C. adds even more depth to an already-burgeoning rivalry between the Nationals and Mets, the New York Times’ Tim Rohan writes.  Rohan recaps Murphy’s important role in this era of Mets baseball and also the reasons why he was ultimately an expendable piece for the club.

Updated 2016 Draft Order

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While several major free agents have already been signed this offseason, there has been relatively little change to the 2016 amateur draft order.  It’s a little surprising given that, with a record 20 free agents receiving qualifying offers, the stage was set for a massive reshuffle for next year’s first round.

Or maybe, in hindsight, it’s not that surprising that the list of QO free agents is still pretty robust as we hit Christmas.  As ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote in his most recent subscription-only column, some agents and executives think that with an increasing number of teams preparing to “tank” the 2016 season, this has thinned the market for suitors for these established veterans.  There has also been a lot of attention paid to the free agents who didn’t have draft pick compensation attached to their services, as David Price, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Ben Zobrist have all been signed.

Assuming Daniel Murphy’s agreement with the Nationals is finalized, that will account for 11 of the 20 qualifying offer free agents off the board.  Of that 11-man group, Hisashi Iwakuma and Marco Estrada signed new contracts with their former teams and while three players (Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) also stayed put and set a precedent by accepting the QO.  That accounts for six free agent signings that impacted the updated draft order…

FIRST ROUND

1. Phillies
2. Reds
3. Braves
4. Rockies
5. Brewers
6. Athletics
7. Marlins
8. Padres
9. Tigers
10. White Sox
11. Mariners
12. Red Sox
13. Rays
14. Orioles
15. Indians
16. Twins
17. Angels
18. Astros
19. Yankees
20. Rangers
21. Mets
22. Dodgers
23. Blue Jays
24. Royals
25. Pirates
26. Cardinals

COMPENSATION ROUND (bonus picks given to teams who issued qualifying offers to players who signed elsewhere; picks are allotted in inverse order of 2015 record)

27. White Sox (for Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants)
28. Nationals (for Jordan Zimmermann signing with the Tigers)
29. Mets (for Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals)
30. Dodgers (for Zack Greinke signing with the Diamondbacks)
31. Cardinals (for John Lackey signing with the Cubs)
32. Cardinals (for Jason Heyward signing with the Cubs)

Thus far four teams (San Francisco, Arizona, Chicago and Washington) have given up their first-rounder to sign a qualifying offer free agent.  The D’Backs were originally slated for the 13th overall pick of the first round, the Nationals 18th, the Giants 19th and the Cubs 28th.

Since the Cubs signed two QO free agents, they’ve also given up their first pick of the second round.  It’s possible Chicago could recoup a pick in the compensation round, however, if the qualifying-offered Dexter Fowler signs with a new team.  Along those same lines, Washington gained a compensatory pick for Zimmermann and will get another when Ian Desmond signs elsewhere, which undoubtedly factored into the Nats being comfortable enough to give up their first-rounder for Murphy.

The top 10 slots in the draft are protected, so Detroit kept its first-rounder (ninth overall) and only has to surrender its top second-round pick in order to sign Zimmermann.

Beyond the compensation round are the Competitive Balance Selections (which were determined by a lottery in July and can be traded) and various other extra picks given to teams who failed to sign players in those corresponding spots in last year’s draft.  MLB.com’s amateur draft site has a full listing of every pick within the first three rounds, minus the changes in the wake of the Murphy agreement.

Nationals To Sign Daniel Murphy

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6:54pm: The contract is a three-year deal worth $37.5MM, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).

4:25pm: The Nationals have agreed to a three-year deal with second baseman Daniel Murphy, ESPN’s Jim Bowden reports (via Twitter).  The deal will become official once Murphy passes a physical, as per FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.  Murphy is represented by the ACES agency.

Washington’s interest in Murphy was first reported by MLB.com’s Bill Ladson last week.  The Nats have been looking for infield help for much of the winter, as they were finalists for Ben Zobrist’s services, had talks with Howie Kendrick and were on the verge of acquiring Brandon Phillips from the Reds before Phillips declined to waive his no-trade clause without a contract extension.MLB: NLCS-New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

Murphy, who turns 31 on April 1, hit .281/.322/.449 with a career-best 14 homers over 538 plate appearances in 2015.  A 13th-round pick for the Mets in the 2006 draft, Murphy developed into a very solid big leaguer who has posted 12.2 fWAR/9.6 bWAR over the last five years.  Mets fans will forever remember Murphy’s contributions in the 2015 postseason, as he posted a whopping 1.462 OPS and seven home runs over 39 PA in the NLDS and NLCS, a performance that earned him the NLCS MVP Award.  Murphy became the first player in baseball history to homer in six consecutive postseason games.

In Murphy, the Nationals add a player who provides good pop for a middle infielder and also a versatile defender who play third, first and (on a limited basis) left as well as the keystone.  In fact, according to metrics like UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved, second base is actually Murphy’s worst defensive position.  Since Anthony Rendon can also play both second and third, it’s possible the Nats could use Murphy at the hot corner.

Regardless of who plays second, the signing ensures that Danny Espinosa will take over at shortstop until top prospect Trea Turner is ready for the big leagues.  Murphy could also spell Ryan Zimmerman at first base against the occasional right-handed starter.  In any case, Murphy’s multi-positional ability gives manager Dusty Baker a lot of flexibility in arranging lineups and late-game situations.  Perhaps most importantly, Murphy also adds a much-needed left-handed bat to Washington’s lineup — Murphy and Bryce Harper are currently the only left-handed hitters projected to play everyday roles for the Nationals.

There wasn’t too much public buzz about Murphy’s free agent market before the Nats emerged, as the Rockies, Dodgers and Mets all had some interest but in somewhat limited fashion.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Murphy 17th on his list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and predicted he’d land a four-year/$56MM contract.  It could be that Murphy’s market was impacted by the number of notable infielders being dealt this offseason.  The three teams noted in Dierkes’ list (the Angels, White Sox and Yankees), for example, all addressed infield needs in trades for the likes of Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar, Brett Lawrie, Todd Frazier and Starlin Castro.

Since Murphy rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, New York will receive a compensation pick between the first and second rounds of the 2016 draft.  The Nationals, in turn, will have to surrender their first-round pick (17th overall) the draft but they may end up taking only a minor slide down the draft board since they have two QO free agents of their own.  Washington already received a compensation round pick when Jordan Zimmermann signed with the Tigers and they could receive another if Ian Desmond signs elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki/USA Today Sports Images

Mets Notes: Murphy, Payroll, Zobrist, O’Day

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Any chance that might’ve existed for a reunion between Daniel Murphy and the Mets evaporated with the news of Murphy’s three-year agreement with the Nationals.  Murphy going to an NL East rival probably stings the Mets, though the club had never expressed too much interest in re-signing the infielder and had already moved on by trading for Neil Walker and signing Asdrubal Cabrera to address middle infield needs.  Because Murphy rejected the Mets’ $15.8MM qualifying offer (an offer that was no certainty to be extended prior to Murphy’s huge postseason), New York now receives a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of next June’s amateur draft.  Here’s some more from Queens…

  • The Mets’ 2016 payroll stands at roughly $106.5MM, according to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin.  This total includes projected arbitration salaries, estimated $600K salaries for pre-arb players and another $600K for the right-handed hitting outfielder Rubin feels the team will add before Opening Day.  While $106.5MM is low by the standards of a big-market club (especially one in New York), it’s actually slated to be the Mets’ highest Opening Day payroll in five years, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
  • In a follow-up tweet, Rubin feels the payroll could be in the neighborhood of $112MM depending on the backup outfielder and if the Mets acquire a setup man.
  • While the Mets continue to be criticized for their modest spending, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if the critics would’ve disappeared had the team been successful in landing Ben Zobrist, who the Mets made a huge push to sign before he opted to join the Cubs.  That said, Sherman wonders if the Mets front office has by this point simply “just learned not to even go to certain areas” in terms of player contracts since it knows that ownership doesn’t have the funds.  Sherman believes, for instance, that Darren O’Day would’ve been an ideal target and could’ve been a huge upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, yet the club refused to spend at the top of the relief market.
  • In other Mets news from earlier today on MLBTR, the club has ruled out a pursuit of Yoenis Cespedes.  According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Mets made Cespedes an offer of two or three years, though no salary figures were discussed.

Quick Hits: Soler, Lucroy, Swanson, Chen

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In a radio interview on The 670 Score’s “Inside The Clubhouse” show, Theo Epstein said the Cubs are committed to Jorge Soler as a big part of their roster, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  “We are putting our stock into his future,” Epstein said.  “Barring anything [an overwhelming trade offer], he knows to ignore all the trade rumors and take it as a compliment.”  Epstein praised Soler’s hitting potential and his offseason training, as Soler “is down to 225 [pounds] and is working hard on his quickness and flexibility” to improve his right field defense.  The Cubs could add a defense-first backup outfielder, Epstein hinted, which probably isn’t a surprise given Soler’s inexperience and the questions about whether or not Kyle Schwarber can handle left field.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Brewers don’t want to sell low on Jonathan Lucroy in the wake of his underwhelming 2015 season, though they could be taking a risk by waiting to make a trade, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes in a piece for FOX Sports.  If Lucroy’s concussion and injury history continues to diminish his ability, Milwaukee will have missed its window to recoup significant value for the former All-Star.  Midseason deals for catchers are also somewhat uncommon, as it’s somewhat hard for a new catcher to instantly develop a rapport with pitchers.
  • The Braves targeted Dansby Swanson even before they created room at short by dealing Andrelton Simmons, GM John Coppolella tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila.  “We’ve been in talks with Arizona since the end of the 2015 season,” Coppolella said. “We hoped to get Swanson, but we didn’t know if, or how, the deal would materialize. We saw him as a fit for us, whether we made the Simmons trade or not. We just want really good players and he’s a really good player.”
  • Wei-Yin Chen may have the most value of any remaining free agent pitcher, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes, as he has posted comparable numbers to Jeff Samardzija or Jordan Zimmermann and probably won’t cost as much.  Of course, Chen and his agent Scott Boras are looking for healthy compensation for the southpaw’s services in the form of a five-year, $100MM contract.
  • While opt-out clauses are usually considered to provide little benefit to a team, the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber notes that there’s certainly upside if a club can avoid paying big money to a player outside of his prime years.  For instance, Lauber reports that had the Red Sox been successful in obtaining Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers in the 2003-04 offseason, they had no intention of re-signing him after he opted out of his deal (as expected) after the 2007 season.  The Yankees, who did deal for A-Rod and then re-signed him to a whopping 10-year, $275MM contract after 2007, have surely regretted not letting Rodriguez walk when they had the chance.
  • Blue Jays director of analytics Joe Sheehan is profiled by the Toronto Star’s Brendan Kennedy, who notes that Sheehan’s promotion to the newly-created position is a sign of the team’s increased focus on analytics under Mark Shapiro.
  • The Giants are the most likely team to sign Yoenis Cespedes, MLB.com’s Jim Duquette opines.  The Tigers, Orioles, White Sox and Angels round out Duquette’s list of Cespedes’ most likely landing spots.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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Of the top 10 entries on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, half are already off the market.  David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto have all signed new contracts, though there’s obviously still lots of top-tier talent still available, particularly on the position player side.  Indeed, the five remaining top-10 players are all everyday players — three left fielders, a shortstop and a first baseman.  There’s also been a notable lack of clarity about each player’s market (compounded by the fact that several of the same teams are interested in these same names), leaving some question about exactly who might come off the board next.  Here are the candidates, in the order of their ranking on MLBTR’s list…

Justin Upton: There have been surprisingly few solid rumors about Upton’s market, as the Angels and Orioles have both at least spoken with Upton’s representatives but there’s been little evidence of a serious pursuit.  He carries a high projected price tag (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Upton will get a seven-year, $147MM deal) and he’ll cost his new team a draft pick as qualifying offer compensation, though Upton’s main problem could simply be the glut of other quality outfielders on the free agent and trade markets.  That said, it’s hard to believe Upton won’t eventually wind up with a lucrative deal given the number of potential suitors that could use a big outfield bat.

Chris Davis: The Orioles, Davis’ former team, made a $150MM offer to the slugger that has since been taken off the table.  The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been speculatively linked to Davis but Baltimore is the only club known to be firmly pursuing him.  If Davis and agent Scott Boras are really looking for an eight-year, $200MM offer, however, it’s hard to see any team taking the plunge at that price, despite Boras’ track record of scoring higher-than-expected contracts for his clients.

Yoenis Cespedes: Upton and Cespedes share many of the same issues clouding their market, though Cespedes is two years older but can be signed without draft pick compensation.  (Cespedes, in fact, is the only player of these five who doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over his free agency.)  The Orioles and Angels have also been lightly linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved.  The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for Cespedes or Upton, as they have a left field vacancy.

Alex Gordon: Though Gordon is four and two years older, respectively, than Upton and Cespedes, he’s been getting a lot more interest from a variety of teams — the Cardinals, Astros, Royals, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles and Tigers have all been linked to Gordon at one time or another this winter.  At least a few of those teams, however, can probably be eliminated from contention due to other moves; the Cubs signed Heyward and Colby Rasmus accepted Houston’s qualifying offer, for instance.  Dierkes projected a five-year, $105MM deal for Gordon, so it’s not surprising that teams are exploring their options before deciding to give up a draft pick and give a nine-figure deal to a 32-year-old.

Ian Desmond: Whereas the other four names on this list had good-to-excellent walk years, Desmond headed into free agency burdened by a poor 2015 season (.233/.290/.384 in 641 PA, 83 wRC+, -3.7 UZR/150).  It’s made for a slow market for Desmond, as teams with shortstop needs like the Padres and Mets have shown only marginal interest.  What may help Desmond, however, is that he may not be limited to shortstop-needy teams, as his agents have been pushing him as a multi-position player capable of handling the outfield.  The strategy seems to be working to some extent, as multiple teams are considering Desmond not just at short or the outfield but also at second and third.

With all these factors in mind, who will be the next member of MLBTR’s Top 10 to sign a new contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)

Which Free Agent Will Sign First?
Alex Gordon 38.42% (6,564 votes)
Yoenis Cespedes 25.66% (4,384 votes)
Chris Davis 15.97% (2,728 votes)
Justin Upton 13.90% (2,375 votes)
Ian Desmond 6.05% (1,034 votes)
Total Votes: 17,085

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