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Ohio Notes: Arroyo, Rodriguez, Bruce, Reds, Tribe

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Here are some notes from the Buckeye State’s two teams…

  • The Reds still have an interest in a reunion with Bronson Arroyo, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets.  Cincinnati has been linked to the veteran righty on a couple of occasions this offseason, though GM Dick Williams has stated that his club’s interest is dependent on whether or not Arroyo is recovered from his Tommy John surgery.  Arroyo hasn’t pitched since June 2014 due to that surgery yet the Reds are one of at least seven teams who have checked in on his status.
  • Also from Sheldon, outfielder Yorman Rodriguez will get a long look during Spring Training given the Reds’ needs in the outfield and Rodriguez’s out-of-options contract status.  Rodriguez originally signed with the Reds as a 16-year-old in 2008 for $2.5MM, then a record bonus for Venezuelan amateurs.  He’s hit .261/.314/.399 with 50 homers over 2546 minor league plate appearances and his MLB experience consists of an 11-game cup of coffee with the Reds in 2014.  Baseball America ranked him as Cincinnati’s 10th-best prospect prior to the 2015 season, and in a November chat about the Reds’ farm system, BA’s J.J. Cooper predicted Rodriguez will be the Reds’ Opening Day left fielder.
  • Since the Reds and Indians recently had discussions about Todd Frazier before the third baseman was dealt to Chicago, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer figures that Jay Bruce’s name probably also came up given the Tribe’s need for outfielders.  That said, Hoynes doubts Bruce was or is a fit for Cleveland due to his notable salary ($12.5MM in 2016 and a $13MM club option for 2017 with a $1MM buyout) and inconsistent play.  For what it’s worth, the Indians aren’t one of the eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list.
  • The Indians have used information provided by MLB Advanced Media’s new Statcast player-tracking technology when evaluating players this winter, GM Mike Chernoff tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.  While “scouts have been measuring tools of players for a long time, and they’re really good at it,” Chernoff said Statcast “is a way to get a slightly more accurate reading on some of those things.  This should be a huge relief for scouts and a huge complement to what they do.  [It] allows a scout to process the information rather than just have to transmit information to whoever is going to be reading his report.”

Quick Hits: Strauss, Tigers, Castellanos, Martinez

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Joe Strauss, who covered the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals over three decades as a reporter and columnist for several news outlets, passed away today at age 54 due to complications from a battle with leukemia.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko are just a few of the many peers who paid tribute to Strauss with chronicles of his outstanding career and remembrances of their friend and colleague.  Countless news items from Strauss appeared on this website’s pages over the years, and all of us on the MLB Trade Rumors staff send our condolences to Strauss’ friends and family.

Here are some notes from around the game as we head into a new week…

  • The Tigers have been getting calls about Nick Castellanos, Tony Paul of the Detroit News reports.  Castellanos was a 2010 first-rounder and a former top prospect, though he’s underwhelmed both offensively and defensively in two full Major League seasons, posting negative fWAR totals in both 2014 and 2015.  These struggles notwithstanding, it’s probably unlikely that Detroit would move Castellanos since he’s only 23 and under team control through the 2019 season.
  • Also from Paul, he guesses that once J.D. Martinez and the Tigers get talking about an extension, the negotiations will be in the neighborhood of a four-year, $60MM deal.  This contract could be backloaded, which would allow the team to pursue more upgrades now and pay Martinez his biggest salaries later once other large contracts have come off the books.  Martinez is entering his age-28 season now and has two remaining years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency, so under Paul’s projected extension, Martinez would reach the open market as a 32-year-old having given up two free agent years.  The $60MM number may be a little conservative, in my view, given how first-rate hitting is at a premium.
  • While the Tigers aren’t shy about spending, Paul doesn’t think the team will stray too far (if at all) over the luxury tax limit, so landing a top outfield name like Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon is probably unrealistic.  Detroit could move another big contract like Ian Kinsler to make payroll space, though Paul points out that the team would just be creating a new hole at second base to solve a hole in left field.  The Tigers could instead save any payroll room for a trade deadline addition.
  • At the Winter Meetings, Orioles manager Buck Showalter told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the club was willing to surrender its first round draft pick (14th overall) to sign the right qualifying offer free agent but it wouldn’t be without great consideration.  “It would have to be something that really fits. But we would if we had to,” Showalter said.  “But one of our big days is going to be…in June, we got seven picks in the first 100 in the draft. I don’t know if we’ve ever had that. This is big for us. We can solidify our already strong system.”  An interesting wrinkle to Showalter’s statement is that the O’s are actually guaranteed to have only five picks within the first 91 selections.  They would only receive those two other picks if QO free agents Wei-Yin Chen and Chris Davis both signed elsewhere.  Since Showalter’s statement was made during the Meetings, it would’ve come roughly around the time that Baltimore pulled its $150MM offer to Davis off the table, so the manager’s words could be interpreted as a hint that the O’s could be prepared to move on from the first baseman (though the two sides have since continued to talk).

NL East Notes: Howard, Guyer, Murphy, Walker, Riley

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Last night, news broke of an Al Jazeera TV news documentary (that aired tonight) which alleged that Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Taylor Teagarden and several NFL stars all received illegal PEDs.  Denials have been issued by many of the parties named in the report, including Howard and Zimmerman to Al Jazeera and their mutual attorney to MLBTR.  The Nationals released a statement earlier today in support of Zimmerman, and the Phillies released a statement tonight regarding Howard:

“Ryan Howard has vigorously denied the allegations contained in tonight’s airing of Al Jazeera’s report titled ‘The Dark Side.’  Ryan has spent his whole career with the Phillies and, during that entire time, has been an extremely well respected member of our team and an outstanding contributor to our community.  We will fully cooperate with any investigation conducted by Major League Baseball and will refer all further questions to them concerning the Al Jazeera report.”

Dr. Dale Guyer, of the Guyer Institute, also denied the allegations made by former intern Charles Sly (that have since been recanted) that NFL legend Peyton Manning received HGH from the clinic under his wife’s name.  Guyer made his statement on his website, as passed on by Nat Newell, Zak Keefer and Justin L. Mack of the Indianapolis Star:

“I have no reason to believe these allegations are based in fact or have any truth.  In fact, I can say with absolute certainty they are not. I find it extremely disturbing that the source of Al Jazeera’s story, a former unpaid intern named Charles Sly, would violate the privacy of Mrs. Manning’s medical records and be so callous and destructive as to purposely fabricate and spread stories that are simply not true.

“I would emphasize that Mr. Sly was never an employee of the Guyer Institute and his brief three-month internship occurred in 2013 during which time Peyton was not even being treated or present in the office. I am proud to have treated Peyton and helped him through his rehabilitation. Mr. Manning is one of the most honorable and upstanding individuals I have had the pleasure of knowing.”

You can follow more details on the NFL side of the story on Pro Football Rumors, MLBTR’s sister site.  Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • While Trea Turner has a ton of upside, the Nationals weren’t going to go into the season with an unproven rookie at short and Danny Espinosa as the everyday second baseman, MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr writes.  The signing of Daniel Murphy answers the Nats’ clear need for an experienced veteran at second who has a proven postseason track record, since Washington fully expects to contend.  With the pennant race in mind, the Nats had no time to let Turner learn on the job in April or May.
  • The Murphy signing, the Nationals’ scuttled trade for Brandon Phillips and the Mets’ trade for Neil Walker are all addressed by Fangraphs’ David Laurila, who feels New York ended up in the best shape after all these second base shuffles.  The Mets benefited by adding Walker for one contract year rather than the Nats signing Murphy for three, Laurila opines, and he also feels the Nats would’ve been better off with Phillips (who has two years remaining on his contract) than Murphy.  I disagree with Laurila on that point, as Murphy is both three years younger than Phillips and has been the better player over the last three seasons.
  • Braves prospect Austin Riley is profiled by David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in the wake of the 18-year-old’s first pro season.  Riley was taken 41st overall in the 2015 draft, a selection that surprised some pundits who had Riley much lower on their board.  He was still drawing a lot of attention from teams, including some who saw him as a pitcher, though the Braves instead shifted him from short to third and focused on his power potential.  Riley hit .304/.389/.544 with 12 homers over 252 combined plate appearances for two Rookie League teams.

Kasten On Pitching, Greinke, Payroll, Roberts

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Dodgers president/CEO Stan Kasten recently took part in a Q&A with ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon to discuss a wide range of topics about the team.  Here are some of the highlights concerning the Dodgers’ offseason thus far…

  • The Dodgers felt comfortable in making a financial “stretch” to re-sign Zack Greinke since they knew the pitcher so well, though offering a sixth year as the Diamondbacks did to ultimately land the star righty went above even the Dodgers’ expanded comfort zone.  “All things factored in, we could not get to a point we felt hamstrung down the road. Having said that, we went beyond what we felt was strictly prudent because it was Zack, who we valued so highly,” Kasten said.  Los Angeles’ offer to Greinke was reportedly in the area of five years and $155MM.  Kasten didn’t confirm the total, though he used his team’s pursuit of Greinke as an example of how the Dodgers are still very willing to spend, and that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is under no mandate to cut payroll.
  • Though the Dodgers have seemingly been linked to virtually every big-name pitcher on the open market this offseason, Kasten said that Greinke was the only serious target and other talks were mostly a case of due diligence.  “Once [re-signing Greinke] didn’t occur, I know our name was thrown out there on everybody,” Kasten said.  “Part of that is because we do touch base with everyone and once that happens, agents can characterize that touching base however it suits their purposes.  We haven’t wanted any of the other big-ticket items for various reasons, from physical reasons to age to the way it was going to fit together for us.”
  • Some fans and pundits have been critical of how relatively quiet the Dodgers’ offseason has been, as the club has fallen short on attempts to acquire the likes of Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma and Aroldis Chapman.  While Kasten admits the team hasn’t connected on some big moves, he notes that the roster will still contend and will be “maybe better than last year by the time Opening Day gets here.”
  • Kasten also points to the bigger picture steps Los Angeles has taken to improving from within, noting its gains in international signings and minor league depth.  “Even more important, we’re much closer today than we were three years ago to being the long-term, self-sustaining organization, and that doesn’t get enough attention….We all know the next wave of players is very close to getting to the majors this coming year. Behind them, we think two to three years from now we have a very, very deep roster of other prospects highlighted by the investments we’ve made internationally. There are two movements on the way and that’s what we said we were trying to do from the day we arrived,” Kasten said.
  • While the team is always looking to make improvements, Kasten feels the current rotation is already solid and will be further augmented by that aforementioned depth.  “The system is just starting to catch up in terms of depth,” the president said.  “I can tell you right now we have more depth than the organization has ever had….I don’t think the team we field today is the team we will open the postseason with next October.”
  • As an executive, Kasten has “no hard and fast rules other than not having any hard and fast rules.”  He denies having such policies as signing players beyond age 36 or signing pitchers to contracts longer than five years; while the latter may be “a really good rule if it were one,” Kasten also notes that the club also has Clayton Kershaw signed to a seven-year, $215MM deal.
  • There were rumors earlier this winter that the front office was set on hiring director of player development Gabe Kapler  as the new Dodgers manager before ownership insisted on a wider-ranging search that eventually led to the hiring of Dave Roberts.  Kasten denied the rumor, calling it “really bizarre” and stating that ownership didn’t get involved in the process at all until Roberts and Kapler were the final two candidates.  “There were no other jobs open and we had all the time in the world to interview every possible candidate, which is what we did. It came down to the last two guys and our owners met those guys and we all collectively made the same decision,” Kasten said.

West Notes: Henderson, M’s, Black, Dodgers

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The baseball world is mourning the loss of former All-Star outfielder Dave Henderson, who passed away this morning at age 57.  “Hendu” played for five teams over his 14-year career, including six years each with the Mariners and Athletics.  He was the first draft pick in Mariners franchise history and spent a decade as an M’s color commentator on TV and radio after his retirement.  The slugger was a member of the Oakland teams that won three straight AL pennants from 1988-90 and captured the 1989 World Series, and Henderson played a big role in that championship with a 1.129 OPS over 39 postseason plate appearances.  Of course, Henderson’s most famous playoff moment came in Game Five of the 1986 ALCS as a member of the Red Sox, when he hit a dramatic two-run homer (with two outs and two strikes on him) in the ninth inning to temporarily put Boston ahead, and Henderson then drove in the game’s winning run in the 11th on a sac fly.  That victory saved the Red Sox from elimination and sparked an unlikely comeback, as they then beat the Angels in Games Six and Seven to win the pennant.

“Hendu played just two seasons in Boston, but we always regarded him as one of us, and are grateful for the time we were able to enjoy his talent and infectious personality,” Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said in an official statement from the club.  “Everywhere he went, Henderson made friends. He was a great ambassador for our game, and we have lost him far too soon.”

We at MLBTR send our condolences to Henderson’s family and countless friends around the game.  Here are some news items from around the West divisions…

  • It’s a lot easier to win when your team has a high payroll (and/or a wealth of controllable young talent), and as Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes, the Mariners are in something of a difficult spot since they’re a consistent mid-range payroll team that has a big chunk of their spending tied up in a handful of star contracts.  If the M’s aren’t willing to spend more, Baker notes, then GM Jerry Dipoto will be doubly challenged to find affordable young pieces to fit around those core stars.  Given Dipoto’s very busy offseason, it’s hard to say he hasn’t been trying to fulfill that exact goal.
  • Giants right-handed pitching prospect Ray Black turned a lot of heads in the Arizona Fall League, Andy Baggarly writes in a subscription-only piece for Baseball America.  Black’s fastball topped out at a whopping 104mph in AFL play and he also possesses (perhaps anecdotally) a 98mph changeup.  Black, 25, was a seventh-rounder for the Giants in the 2011 draft who has battled a variety of injuries and didn’t being his pro career until 2014.  Black has a 3.28 ERA over 60 1/3 minor league innings, exhibiting both some shaky control (6.1 BB/9) and overwhelming strikeout power (18.2 K/9).
  • The Dodgers have been linked to both Wei-Yin Chen and Kenta Maeda in free agency rumors, and Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times looks at the pros and cons for the club of signing either pitcher.  Whatever choice the team makes (if it goes with either starter), Dilbeck thinks the Dodgers need to address their rotation after falling short on a number of offseason pitching targets.

Documentary Links Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Taylor Teagarden To PED Claims

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3:00pm: The Nationals issued a statement with regards to Zimmerman’s involvement in the documentary:

“Ryan Zimmerman has been an integral member of the Washington Nationals family for the past 11 years.  During that time, he has been the model for all that we ask our players to be – contributing to his team, to his community, and to the game of baseball.

We do not find Al Jazeera’s report – which has already been recanted by their source – to be credible.  

Ryan has unequivocally stated that these allegations are false.  The Lerner family and our organization fully support him.  We are confident Major League’s Baseball’s investigation will show that the allegations levied in the report are unfounded.  

We fully cooperate with MLB, and refer all questions to them at this time.” 

Major League Baseball also issued a statement (via Twitter links from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports)

“[MLB] was not made aware of the allegations until yesterday and was provided no information other than what has been reported,” the statement read, adding that the league intends to “conduct a thorough investigation.”

10:30am: Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman and Taylor Teagarden are among the athletes named as allegedly having received banned PEDs in an undercover news documentary from Al Jazeera television (YouTube link).

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Al Jazeera conducted a month long investigative report on PEDs in global sports, sending British hurdler Liam Collins undercover.  The PED claims come from Collins’ undercover conversations with a former pharmacy intern named Charlie Sly, who says that he previously worked at an Indiana-based anti-aging clinic called the Guyer Institute.  Sly told Collins that he sold Howard and Zimmerman a hormone supplement known as Delta-2, which is both specifically designated to evade drug tests and included on Major League Baseball’s list of banned substances.  Teagarden, meanwhile, is shown in an undercover video discussing how he took PEDs in the previous season.

MLBTR has a statement from William Burck of Quinn Emanuel, the attorney for both Howard and Zimmerman:

“It’s inexcusable and irresponsible that Al Jazeera would provide a platform and broadcast outright lies about Mr. Howard and Mr. Zimmerman. The extraordinarily reckless claims made against our clients in this report are completely false and rely on a source who has already recanted his claims.  We will go to court to hold Al Jazeera and other responsible parties accountable for smearing our clients’ good names.”

In one of his conversations with Al Jazeera’s undercover athlete, Sly went into some detail about the drug regimen that he has laid out for Howard.  Sly specifically claims that Howard has taken Delta-2 (“D2”) and says that Howard felt that he had “more explosiveness” as a result.

“He is somebody that you cannot overwhelm with stuff,” Sly told Collins.  “You just make sure you have like everything in bags.  He knows to take stuff twice a day.  Usually I just have him like teach it back to me.”

Sly also opened up about his working relationship with Zimmerman, a player whom Sly claims to have known for “probably six years.”  “I worked with him in the offseason.  That’s how I get him to change some stuff,” Sly said.  Sly went on to answer in the affirmative when asked if Zimmerman has used D2 and also indicated that he has noticed an increase in power as a result.

Teagarden, meanwhile, actually crosses paths with Collins while the two are waiting in the lobby of Sly’s apartment building.  When the three men are in Sly’s apartment, Teagarden gets rather specific about his use of Delta-2.

“I used it last year, I was very..I was scared to be honest with you,” Teagarden said.  “I took it for like two weeks and I had a test four weeks after my last administration of it.  Nothing happened…And I was also taking peptides too but they were all urine tests, no blood tests…Once a year, maybe twice at most.”

Howard and Zimmerman denied using the drug when asked to comment by Al-Jazeera, and several NFL players named in the report (including such notables as Peyton Manning, James Harrison and Mike Neal) also denied using PEDs, as highlighted by our sister NFL site, Pro Football Rumors.  Sly himself told Al-Jazeera that his prior statements (or, at least, the characterization of them) were “absolutely false and incorrect.”  Sly added that the recordings were made “without [his] knowledge or consent.”  In comments made to ESPN, Sly says he was a student intern at the Guyer Institute in 2013, rather than 2011 as alleged by Al Jazeera.  Sly told ESPN he was “trying to pull one over on Collins to see if he had any idea of what he was talking about,” dropping names of athletes who were not actually clients.

None of the three baseball players have ever been suspended for PED use or failed any known drug tests.  It is yet unknown how MLB or the NFL may respond to this documentary, if at all, though if the allegations are proven, Howard, Zimmerman and Teagarden would presumably be subject to the 80-game suspension given to the first-time offenders of MLB’s drug policy.

Tim Dierkes and Zach Links contributed to this post.  Travis Waldron and Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post first detailed some of the documentary’s major news points after watching an advance copy.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Ruth, Davis, Nationals, Yankees

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It was on this day in 1919 that probably the single most influential trade in baseball history was settled, as Red Sox owner Harry Frazee agreed to sell Babe Ruth to the Yankees for a price of $100K (plus a $350K loan from Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert that included Fenway Park’s mortgage put up as collateral).  The trade was officially announced a week later once Ruth had agreed to a new contract.  The rest, as they say, was history.  Ruth’s presence began the Yankees’ historic dominance and “cursed” the Red Sox to a World Series drought that lasted until 2004.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • The latest subscription-only column from ESPN’s Buster Olney lists the top roster holes left on contending teams, with the Dodgers’ rotation leading the way followed by the Orioles’ need for a power hitter.  Since the O’s pulled their $150MM offer to Chris Davis, some within the organization are asking if that offer should be put back onto the table if Davis revisits talks, given that no other teams are seemingly jumping in to pay Davis $150MM or more.
  • Also from Olney’s column, he wonders if signing Daniel Murphy could make the Nationals more likely to sign another qualifying offer free agent.  The Nats surrendered their first-rounder to sign Murphy, so they’d only be giving up a second-rounder for another QO player.  I’d add that the Nats’ decision could be made even easier by the fact that they at least one and probably two bonus sandwich round picks from their own QO free agents (Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond).  Olney suggests that Dexter Fowler could be the best fit for Washington among the remaining qualifying offer free agents, with Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy also possibilities as Scott Boras clients.
  • The Phillies serve as a cautionary tale to the Yankees, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, as a team that fell apart due to a thin farm system and little production from veterans on big contracts.  With New York already committing millions to aging veterans, the club is trying to manage the tricky task of getting younger while still remaining a contender, even if that means eschewing adding another big contract in free agency this winter.

Central Notes: Warren, Francona, Tigers, Salty

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Adam Warren found out about his trade to the Cubs in a somewhat unusual fashion, as he explained in an interview with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (hat tip to CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa).  Warren and his wife were on vacation in St. Lucia and “our biggest rule when we go out of the country is to turn your phone off, put them into the safe in the room, and basically get away from technology.”  This meant that the Warrens discovered that the right-hander had been dealt to Chicago as part of the Starlin Castro trade only by watching a TV screen’s sports ticker while at dinner.  Here’s some more from around the Central divisions…

  • Indians manager Terry Francona touched on such topics as his relationship with the front office, the Tribe’s reluctance to trade its starting pitching, and the club’s winter moves in a wide-ranging interview with Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Francona stressed the importance of pitching depth, saying he’d rather “take his chances” with having one less bat in the lineup than giving up a rotation member.  He and the front office “were all in agreement that we were not going to trade one of our (top) starters unless we were overwhelmed with an offer.”
  • Francona said Rajai Davis was “the first name out of my mouth” in postseason discussions about what outfielders the Indians could sign within their price range.  He noted that Davis “has always been such a thorn when we’ve played against him” as a member of the Tigers.  Francona also praised new first baseman Mike Napoli’s power and clubhouse presence, saying that after Cleveland signed Napoli, his “phone about blew up” with texts “from guys who had played with Mike and really liked him.”
  • The Tigers have long been plagued with bullpen issues, yet Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that the club has quickly and seemingly solidly addressed its relief needs before the end of 2015 in adding Francisco Rodriguez, Justin Wilson and Mark Lowe.  “I can’t say I’m surprised, but I will tell you that I didn’t know if we were ever really going to be able to do the whole thing,” GM Al Avila said. “But it was a methodically laid out plan and you don’t know if you’re going to be able to do it, you don’t know if you’re going to have some bumps along the road, you don’t know if it’s going to take longer or shorter.”
  • In another piece from Fenech, Jarrod Saltalamacchia said he decided to join the Tigers due to their commitment to winning.  Though several other teams were interesting in signing the catcher, it was “an easy decision” for Saltalamacchia since “it’s an organization that every year is trying to compete for the World Series.”
  • In other Central division news from earlier today, the Cardinals’ deal with Mike Leake became official, and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported on the five-year, $80MM contract’s rather unusual annual salary breakdown.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.

Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.  These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company.  (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015.  In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)

Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names.  As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes.  Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.

The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents.  Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation.  Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play.  Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.

With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

Which Of These Free Agents Will Sign First?
Scott Kazmir 48.32% (4,593 votes)
Kenta Maeda 23.11% (2,197 votes)
Wei-Yin Chen 12.98% (1,234 votes)
Dexter Fowler 11.70% (1,112 votes)
Ian Kennedy 3.88% (369 votes)
Total Votes: 9,505

Managers And GMs On Expiring Contracts

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If a team is intent on shaking up its front office or dugout, contract length is usually not a great concern.  For example, when the Mariners decided to part ways with GM Jack Zduriencik last summer, the club didn’t hesitate even though Zduriencik signed a multi-year extension in August 2014.  Likewise, former manager Lloyd McClendon’s guaranteed contact through 2016 didn’t stop new GM Jerry Dipoto from making a change after the season.

This being said, everyone obviously wants more security than less when going into a season.  It’s usually rather unusual for a team to let its manager or top baseball executive be a “lame duck” for optics purposes if nothing else, though there are some extenuating circumstances.  Some executives or managers are so entrenched that they’ve already been given unwritten assurances that they’ll eventually receive new deals, or some skippers prefer to work on one-year deals (i.e. Walt Weiss’ original contract with the Rockies) since they’re unsure as to how long they wish to remain on the job.

Here’s the rundown of managers and GMs who could be facing a bit of extra pressure in 2016 as they’re entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.  (Much thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for many of these details.)  While we’re focusing mostly on GMs, there’s also one very prominent example on this list of a president of baseball operations entering a contract year.  One caveat: some teams don’t make front office contract details public, so it’s possible that some of these executives may have already quietly agreed to extensions.

White Sox: Team owner Jerry Reinsdorf is a big fan of Ventura, so the skipper’s contract status (he’s entering the last season of a two-year extension) may not be a big factor.  Of larger import, of course, could be Chicago’s performance given how the Sox underachieved in 2015.  Another rough season could also lead to some speculation about the status of GM Rick Hahn; his contract terms aren’t known, though he was promoted to his current role after the 2012 season.

Twins: The details of Terry Ryan’s contract aren’t known, though given his long history in Minnesota and the Twins’ return to winning baseball last year, it’s hard to imagine Ryan leaving as GM unless he chooses to do so himself.

Tigers: Brad Ausmus was reportedly almost fired last season before former GM Dave Dombrowski fought to keep the manager.  Reports then emerged in September that the club was planning to let Ausmus go at season’s end, though when ownership let new GM Al Avila make the decision, Avila opted to keep Ausmus in place.  Avila’s support notwithstanding, it still seems like Ausmus is on thin ice given how badly owner Mike Ilitch wants to win; even a slow start next season could raise new rumors about a managerial change.  Ausmus is signed through 2016 and Detroit has a club option on his services for 2017.

Royals: GM Dayton Moore and manager Ned Yost are both entering the last year of their contracts, so they clearly have a lot of negotiating power in the wake of Kansas City’s World Series championship.  Yost, however, signed just a one-year extension last winter and said at the time that he only wanted to manage two or three more seasons.  If he still feels this way, Yost may sign another one-year extension at most or he could just ride his current deal out before retiring.  Yost and Moore both expressed no doubts that ownership would work out extensions with both men, so it’s likely just a matter of time before those new deals are finalized.

Rockies: Walt Weiss is entering the last season of the three-year extension he signed after the 2013 season and he’s yet to top even the 74-win plateau as Colorado’s manager, posting an overall 208-278 record.  It’s rather hard to blame Weiss, however, given how the Rockies have suffered through injuries, consistently poor pitching and a change in front office mentality (as evidenced by the hiring of GM Jeff Bridich and the trade of Troy Tulowitzki) since he became manager.  As such, it’s hard to judge exactly how much or little job security Weiss has, though if the Rockies struggle again in 2016, Bridich could quite possibly get the green light to hire his own manager.

Reds: Bryan Price is entering the final year of his original three-year contract, and there was some question as to whether he’d return for that third year in the wake of a tough season on and off for the field for the skipper.  With Cincinnati going into a rebuild, however, the club’s expectations for its manager may have changed; rather than wins and losses, Price may now be judged on how he handles the development of an overall younger roster.

Phillies: The team was impressed enough by Pete Mackanin as an interim manager that they gave him the full-time job in September, signing him through 2016 with a club option for 2017.  It’s fair to say that Mackanin is quite safe as he leads the rebuilding young Phillies.

Nationals: After Washington grossly underachieved from their preseason favorite status, GM Mike Rizzo may just have a “tenuous” grip on his job.  Rizzo is under contract through 2016 and the Nats have a club option on him for 2017, and it’s quite possible Rizzo will need a major rebound season for his team in order to keep his job.

Diamondbacks: Chip Hale signed a two-year contract with a club option for 2017, and his first season as manager saw the D’Backs make a 15-win improvement from 2014.  It was a good first step in leading the Snakes back to respectability, but expectations are now sky-high following Arizona’s acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.  Barring a disaster season, however, I’d think Hale’s job is fairly safe.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if the D’Backs extended Hale this winter, at least in the form of guaranteeing that club option year.

Cubs: Theo Epstein’s contract as Chicago’s president of baseball operations is up after this season.  While GM Jed Hoyer’s contractual status isn’t public, given that he was hired just a week after Epstein in October 2011, it’s safe to assume that his deal is probably also set to expire at the same time as his boss and longtime co-worker.  Epstein didn’t sound too concerned about his contract status when asked about it in October, and he hinted that extensions for other front office members would be more of a priority.  It’s difficult to imagine Epstein leaving just as the Cubs have become contenders again, especially given the historic significance of a Cubs World Series victory.  Given his track record and how the Cubs have rebounded, Epstein is already in position to command the largest contract ever given to a baseball executive in his next contract, whether it’s in Chicago or elsewhere.

Braves: The club extended Fredi Gonzalez’s contract last summer, guaranteeing his 2016 year and adding a club option for 2017.  The Braves are now in such full-fledged rebuild mode that firing Gonzalez now would seem unusual given how they had arguably more reason to do so prior to his extension, such as after the team’s late-season collapse in 2014.  Atlanta has targeted 2017 and the opening of its new ballpark for a return to respectability, so it wouldn’t be a shock if a change was made next winter if the team feels its rebuild is over and a dugout upgrade is needed to take the next step into contention.

Blue Jays: John Gibbons is only technically on this list for another few days given his rolling contract.  If Gibbons is still the Jays’ manager on January 1, Toronto’s club option on his services for 2017 will become guaranteed and another club option will be generated for 2018.  Despite the Jays’ AL East title last year, Gibbons (who had a close relationship with former Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos) may still be under extra pressure in 2016 with Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins now atop the Blue Jays’ baseball operations pyramid.

Astros: The terms of Jeff Luhnow’s original deal to serve as Houston’s GM weren’t revealed when he was hired in the 2011-12 offseason, nor were the terms of his extension during the 2013-14 offseason (in fact, news of that extension didn’t even break until roughly a year after the fact).  Looking at the timeline of these deals, it’s possible 2016 could be Luhnow’s last year under contract, though this all could be a moot point — given how his extensive and sometimes controversial rebuild paid off in the form of a playoff berth, Luhnow likely isn’t going anywhere.

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