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Make Or Break Year: Tyler O’Neill

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At this time two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was viewed as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield.  O’Neill had shown flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, but it seemingly all came together for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning defense in left field.  This all-around performance translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by only 13 players in the sport, and O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.

Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks about a multi-year contract extension during the 2021-22 offseason, though it wasn’t known if the two sides floated a deal to cover just O’Neill’s arbitration years or beyond.  (The Cards subsequently won an arb hearing against O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM salary for the outfielder in 2022, rather than his desired $4.15MM figure.)  Given how the next two seasons played out for O’Neill, St. Louis might have caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, though it’s safe to say that neither side was particularly satisfied with the outfielder’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.

O’Neill has hit only .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a slightly below-average 98 wRC+.  The key statistic there might be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill played in just 168 of a possible 324 games due to several injuries.  A hip impingement and a hamstring strain limited him to 96 games in 2022, and then a lower back sprain and a foot sprain led to more injured list time in 2023 and only 72 appearances.

Injuries also hampered O’Neill prior to 2021, thus making him a tricky player to properly evaluate.  Does that career year serve as an example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever stay healthy, or was even that giant 2021 campaign perhaps something of an outlier even beyond O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL?  A hefty .366 BABIP puts something of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even allowing for the fact that his speed and baserunning ability helped him naturally turn a few extra grounders into base hits.  His walk rate was also well below the league average in 2021, though curiously, O’Neill posted much more solid walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as the 2020 season.

The number that has stayed consistent, unfortunately for O’Neill, is his strikeout rate.  Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout rate ranks seventh among all batters with at least 1600 PA.  While his K% has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s approach has curbed his effectiveness at the plate and made him something of a one-dimensional hitter.

It probably also hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent much of the 2023 season hearing his name in trade rumors.  Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down year in 2022, O’Neill suddenly seemed to become expendable, even if St. Louis was naturally still putting a significant asking price on his services.  It isn’t known what offers the Cards might’ve received for O’Neill at the time or what trades might have been floated or seriously discussed, yet in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis might’ve been better served in moving O’Neill while his trade value was a little higher.

The outfielder’s rough 2023 season only diminished that value, and the year got off to an immediate awkward start when O’Neill was benched for a game for what manager Oliver Marmol felt was a lack of baserunning effort the previous night.  That situation seemed like a harbinger for the end of O’Neill’s time with the organization, yet he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill at the trade deadline even through the struggling club made some other sell-off moves.

A trade didn’t materialize until December, when the Red Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos.  Baseball America ranks Robertson as the 25th-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, yet the trade return has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for the Cards considering what the return might have been for O’Neill even last offseason.  From Boston’s perspective, of course, the deal could be seen as an intriguing buy-low situation.  The Royals and (O’Neill’s former team) Mariners were two of the other teams publicly linked to O’Neill’s trade market, and it’s safe to assume that several other teams checked in with the St. Louis front office.

Health is obviously the biggest x-factor for O’Neill going forward, yet Fenway Park is a pretty nice landing spot for a player looking to regain his hitting stroke.  It’s easy to imagine O’Neill suddenly launching a few homers over the Green Monster, though that same wall will also provide an interesting challenge to O’Neill in his regular role as the new Sox left fielder.  After winning Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers were much closer to average over the last two seasons, so he’ll also be looking for a rebound in the field as well as at the plate.

O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season.  He’ll have all the opportunity in the world with a Red Sox team that seems to be something in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and trying to legitimately contend, and it can be argued that buying low on a recent MVP candidate can be slotted into either direction.  Another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year deals going forward, yet if he can avoid the IL and show anything close to his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a nice multi-year contract could be in offing next winter.

Padres Have Shown Interest In Jarren Duran; Still Considering Free Agent Starters

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The Padres have shown interest in Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re not alone in that regard, per the report, which indicates that multiple clubs have reached out to the Boston front office to express interest. There’s no indication any sort of deal is nigh, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic similarly hears that the Sox and Padres have had “recent” trade discussions as part of the Friars’ ongoing search for outfield help. San Diego has also considered a reunion with outfielder Tommy Pham, per Lin, though he further notes that no formal offer has been made.

Duran, 27, would fill an acute need for the Padres, whose only established MLB outfielder at the moment is Fernando Tatis Jr. Beyond Tatis and Jose Azocar, San Diego doesn’t even have an outfielder on its 40-man roster. Non-roster invitees to spring training like Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson and Cal Mitchell are among the current options to vie for a roster spot in spring training, although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the Padres have also been considering the idea of deploying top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill in the outfield this season as well. Merrill, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 and the game’s No. 17 prospect according to Baseball America, would also need to be added to the 40-man roster.

Duran is a former top-100 prospect himself, though he just broke through with his first real major league success as a 26-year-old in 2023. The now-27-year-old former seventh-round pick appeared in 102 games for the Red Sox and batted .295/.346/.482 with eight home runs, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and a 24-for-26 showing in stolen base attempts. Duran also trimmed his formerly problematic strikeout rate to a more manageable 24.9%, although his 6.6% walk rate is two percentage points shy of league-average.

While Duran has elite speed — 95th percentile, per Statcast — his route running and lack of arm strength have led to well below-average grades in center field. Defensive Runs Saved is most bearish, pegging him at -19 in just shy of 1200 innings, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at -10.5 and Outs Above Average has him at -2. Azocar is capable of handling center field, however, so an acquisition of Duran could lead to him slotting into left field in San Diego, where his glovework would grade more favorably.

There are fair questions about whether Duran can sustain last year’s production at the plate, however. Last year’s .381 average on balls in play may not regress all the way to league-average levels, as players with elite speed can turn grounders into hits at a far higher clip, but Duran’s penchant for chasing pitches off the plate (career 35.1%) and below-average contact rate on such offerings has a tendency to undercut his above-average contact skills on pitches within the zone (92.1%).

Boston’s appetite for dealing Duran remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting that he was drafted back in 2018 and the Sox have now turned over their front office twice since making that selection. First-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow doesn’t have the connection with Duran that predecessors Chaim Bloom and Dave Dombrowski may have. And while Duran is ticketed for a regular role with the Sox as the roster is currently constructed, Boston isn’t short on outfield alternatives.

Were Duran to be moved, the Sox could turn to Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu from left field to right field, with designated hitter Masataka Yoshida also mixing into the corners on occasion. Roman Anthony, Boston’s second-round pick from the 2022 draft, has already climbed as high as Double-A and recently placed 21st on BA’s Top 100 prospect rankings, creating further depth.

The Padres don’t have that type of outfield depth, due in no small part to years of aggressive win-now trades that have combined to thin out the system. San Diego has also been working to scale back payroll, which would make a pre-arbitration player like Duran a natural target. He’ll very likely be arb-eligible next winter as a Super Two player, but he’d fit the team’s desire to manage payroll during the 2024 campaign. And with just 1.155 years of big league service under his belt, Duran could be controlled for five more seasons.

Lin further reports that while the outfield is the greater focus at the moment, San Diego is still exploring the free-agent market for rotation help. He lists Michael Lorenzen, old friend Eric Lauer, and Hyun Jin Ryu as pitchers with whom the San Diego front office has spoken. Heyman, too, lists Ryu as a potential target for the Padres.

Of the three, Lorenzen is coming off the best and healthiest season. An All-Star for the 2023 Tigers, Lorenzen was traded to the Phillies at last summer’s deadline and thrust himself into the spotlight with a pair of dominant performances to begin his Phillies tenure. The converted reliever began to fade after a masterful 124-pitch no-hitter against the Nationals in early August, however, and his struggles snowballed to the point that the Phils dropped him from the rotation to the bullpen. Lorenzen closed out the year with a dismal 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings following that no-hit gem.

Lauer, 28, is a former Padre who went from San Diego to Milwaukee alongside Luis Urias in the trade bringing Trent Grisham to the Friars. He looked to be on his way to a breakout in Milwaukee after adding a slider to his repertoire in 2021, and from ’21-’22 he posted a combined 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 innings. The 2023 campaign was a disaster that saw Lauer torched for a 6.46 ERA in 46 2/3 innings. Milwaukee optioned him to Triple-A to try to get him back on track, but Lauer yielded a 5.15 earned run average in a near-identical sample of 43 2/3 innings there.

Elbow and shoulder injuries have both sent Lauer to the injured list over the past two seasons. It’s possible that he wasn’t at full strength in 2023, given that pair of IL trips and a major dip in his average fastball (93.3 mph in 2022; 91.2 mph in 2023). If Lauer is at full strength, he’d be a nice buy-low option — particularly since his 4.111 years of MLB service make him controllable through the 2025 season for any team that signs him.

As for Ryu, he pitched well in his return to the Blue Jays following Tommy John surgery. The ten-year MLB veteran notched a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts and 52 innings, though his performance wasn’t without its own reasons for hesitation. Ryu only pitched beyond the fifth inning once in 2023, and the Jays never let him reach even 90 pitches in an appearance. Last year’s 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low mark, and his 17% strikeout rate was his third-lowest in ten MLB seasons. Ryu was quite homer-prone in 27 innings in 2022 before undergoing surgery, but he was even more susceptible to the long ball last year, yielding nine in his 52 innings (1.56 HR/9).

Lorenzen might still have enough track record and interest to generate a two-year offer in free agency, but it’s likely Ryu and certainly Lauer will be available on one-year pacts that check in under $10MM — well under in the case of Lauer, who’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.2MM salary before being non-tendered. San Diego’s current $159MM payroll and $215MM luxury tax projection (via Roster Resouce) should leave some room for additional spending, even as the team looks to cut spending. Last year’s Padres payroll climbed as high as $255MM.

Corey Kluber Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Corey Kluber announced his retirement on Instagram this morning. “With sincere appreciation, I am announcing my retirement from Major League Baseball, concluding a remarkable 13-season Major League Baseball journey,” his message reads. “I am deeply grateful for the support of numerous individuals and entities that profoundly influenced my path.” He goes on to thank the five clubs that he played for, the MLBPA, his representatives at Wasserman, various club staff members, teammates and his family.

Corey Kluber | Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports“As I take my leave from the pitcher’s mound, my passion for baseball remains unwavering. I eagerly anticipate exploring opportunities to continue contributing to the sport in a different capacity. To all who have been involved with my baseball odyssey, thank you for crafting an indelible and unforgettable ride. For all of those that will be part of my next chapter in baseball, I look forward to passing on what I have learned to the next generation of MLB players.”

Kluber, now 37, was a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2007 but went to Cleveland in three-team deal at the 2010 deadline. The Cardinals received Jake Westbrook from Cleveland and prospect Nick Greenwood from the Padres. The Friars got Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals while Cleveland got Kluber from the Padres. For Cleveland, that deal could hardly have worked out any better. They were having a poor season, which would eventually see them finish 69-93. Westbrook was an impending free agent and of little use to a club in that position, but they managed to exchange him for a huge piece of their future success.

As a prospect, Kluber didn’t have much hype. Baseball America didn’t consider him one of the Padres’ top 30 prospects going into 2010 and he had a 3.45 Double-A ERA at the time of the deal, a fine number but not anything outstanding. He made his major league debut in 2011 and didn’t do too much to impress there either, allowing four earned runs in his first 4 1/3 innings.

The legend really picked up steam in early 2012, as relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com in this story from 2014. With Triple-A Columbus experiencing a rain delay, Kluber began tinkering with a two-seam fastball under the watch of pitching coach Ruben Niebla. “I’d never really thrown it much on a consistent basis,” Kluber said. “I’d throw my four-seam and, here and there, I’d mix in a two-seam. After I threw it over and over and over and over, and it kind of clicked. It was like, ’This feels a lot better.'” The two-seamer turned out to be the perfect pairing for his offspeed stuff and he took off from there.

He broke out in 2013 by tossing 147 1/3 innings for Cleveland in 24 starts and two relief appearances. He allowed 3.85 earned runs per nine innings that year, combining a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 5.4% walk rate and 45.5% ground ball rate. The next year, he took things to an utterly dominant level. He made 34 starts in 2014 with a 2.44 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 48% ground ball rate. He narrowly edged out Félix Hernández for the American League Cy Young Award that year.

Realizing they had something special, the club locked him up with a five-year, $38.5MM extension in April of 2015, with that deal running through 2019 and containing two club options. At the time, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pre-arbitration pitcher.

Kluber continued to dominate in the coming years. He made 32 starts in each of the next two seasons, with ERAs of 3.49 and 3.14 in those campaigns. The 2016 season saw Cleveland go all the World Series, with Kluber posting a 1.83 ERA in six starts that postseason, though they eventually fell to the Cubs in seven games. 2017 was another incredible season for Kluber, as he made 29 starts with a tiny ERA of 2.25. He got his strikeout rate up to an incredible high of 34.1% while walking only 4.6% of batters. He was awarded his second Cy Young at the end of that campaign.

He followed that up with another excellent showing in 2018, posting a 2.89 ERA over 33 starts, but that would eventually turn out to be the final year of his stretch of utter dominance. Injuries hampered him from there and he was never quite the same. But during that 2014 to 2018 stretch, he posted a 2.85 ERA in 1,091 1/3 innings. His 30.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time period placed him third among all pitchers in the league, trailing only Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

In his seventh start of the 2019 season, he was struck by a line drive and suffered a right arm fracture. He wasn’t able to return and finished that campaign with just 35 2/3 innings pitched. Cleveland picked up his $17.5MM club option but then traded him to the Rangers for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields. The 2020 campaign was eventually shortened to just 60 games by the pandemic, with Kluber tossing just one inning for the Rangers. He suffered a teres major tear in his first outing and missed the remainder of the season.

The Rangers declined the $18MM option for Kluber’s services in 2021, and he would go on to serve as a solid journeyman for a few years. He signed with the Yankees and was eventually limited by a shoulder strain to 16 starts, but one of them was a no-hitter against the Rangers in May. He finished the year with a 3.83 ERA. In 2022, he was healthy enough to make 31 starts for the Rays, but with diminished stuff and a 4.34 ERA. With the Red Sox last year, he struggled immensely, getting moved to the bullpen in May. He was placed on the IL in June due to shoulder inflammation, having thrown 55 innings with a 7.04 ERA on the year. He suffered a setback during his rehab and never returned.

Though it wasn’t a fairytale ending, Kluber nonetheless told a remarkable story. As mentioned, he had a five-year stretch where he was one of the best pitchers on the planet, winning two Cy Youngs in the process. He made three All-Star teams, threw a no-hitter and racked up 1,725 career strikeouts. We was worth 34 wins above replacement in the eyes of Baseball Reference and 38.3 per the calculations of FanGraphs. Per BR, he earned just under $90MM in his playing days. We at MLBTR salute him on a tremendous run as a player and wish him the best in whatever comes next.

Red Sox, Michael Fulmer Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran right-hander Michael Fulmer, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Fulmer isn’t expected to pitch in 2024 after undergoing a UCL revision in his right elbow back in October. As such, it’s a two-year minor league pact, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Presumably, that’ll come with a 2025 spring training invite. The Red Sox didn’t formally announce Fulmer’s deal, but they did make their previously known minor league pact with Dalton Guthrie official, adding that he’s been invited to big league camp this spring. The Sox also announced minor league deals with non-roster invites to camp for infielder Joe Dunand and righty Melvin Adon.

Of the names in question, Fulmer is the most recognizable. Now 30 years old (31 in March), Fulmer was the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year with the Tigers when he pitched 159 innings of 3.06 ERA ball out of the Detroit rotation. A solid followup season in 2017 looked to have entrenched Fulmer on the starting staff in Detroit, but injuries have largely derailed that promising start to his big league tenure.

Since 2018, Fulmer has undergone ulnar nerve transposition surgery, meniscus surgery in his right knee, Tommy John surgery and now a revision of that originally ligament repair in his pitching elbow. That doesn’t include oblique, shoulder and back strains that have also sent him to the injured list for various stints over the past six years. Since pitching 323 2/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball over his first two MLB seasons combined, Fulmer has pitched a total of just 350 1/3 MLB frames in the past six seasons.

Some of that is due to a 2021 move to the bullpen. Fulmer looked to have found a second act in his career upon making that shift. He saved 14 games for the ’21 Tigers and from ’21-’23 pitched 190 1/3 frames of 3.55 ERA ball between the Tigers, Twins and Cubs. This latest procedure and another year lost to arm troubles again clouds his long-term outlook, although he’ll be just 32 years of age in 2025, so there’s still plenty of time for Fulmer to have a nice long run as a reliever if his arm can hold up. By virtue of this minimal-risk arrangement, the Red Sox will get to take the first look at his chances of doing so.

Turning to the 28-year-old Dunand, he made a brief MLB debut with the Marlins in 2022 (three games) but is best known as the nephew of Alex Rodriguez. Dunand went 3-for-10 with a homer and a double in his brief look with the Fish but has an uneven track record in Triple-A. The former second-round pick struggled greatly with the Marlins’ Triple-A club in 2021-22 before making some notable strides with the Braves organization in 2023. Dunand hit .268/.362/.481 (111 wRC+) with 17 homers in 403 Triple-A plate appearances last season, though his prior Triple-A struggles are reflected in a career .233/.325/.407 output at that level.

Dunand has played both positions on the left side of the infield extensively, though he’s appeared slightly more often at third base (1962 innings) than at shortstop (1810 innings). He’s also logged 506 innings at first base and made brief cameos in left field and at second base. He’s a right-handed bat who’ll give the Sox some depth at a variety of positions.

Adon, 29, has spent his entire professional career in the Giants organization prior to this signing. He ranked 17th or better among San Francisco prospects each year from 2017-19, per Baseball America, but has seen his stock fade due to persistent command troubles and recent injury woes (shoulder surgery, most notably).

Adon’s fastball has previously sat in the upper 90s and climbed as high as 102 mph, and scouting reports have touted a plus slider for him as well. Despite two plus offerings, he’s shown bottom-of-the-scale command in the upper minors, walking 13% of his Double-A opponents and more than 17% of his Triple-A opponents. He’s also plunked 25 hitters and thrown a whopping 67 wild pitches in just 457 professional innings. Adon has above-average strikeout rates in Double-A and Triple-A, but not to the extent one might expect based on the quality of his raw pitches.

Twins Claim Zack Weiss, Designate Three Players

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The Twins announced that they claimed right-hander Zack Weiss off waivers from the Red Sox. They also made their previously–reported signings of first baseman Carlos Santana and right-hander Jay Jackson official. To open spots on their 40-man roster for those three players, outfielder Bubba Thompson as well as right-handers Daniel Duarte and Jordan Balazovic were designated for assignment.

Weiss, 32 in June, has made 24 major league appearances over the past two seasons with the Angels and Red Sox. In 27 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He’s paired a strong 29% strikeout rate with a high 11.4% walk rate. He notably leans heavily on his breaking stuff, with Statcast characterizing 63.7% of his pitchers last year as sliders and another 7.1% as cutters. Opponents hit just .121 off the slider and and couldn’t muster a hit against the cutter.

Weiss was claimed off waivers by the Red Sox last year and now the Twins, suggesting clubs are interested in his stuff. He’ll likely need to improve his command a bit but he still has a couple of options and can be kept in the minors as depth until he better harnesses his stuff or is needed at the big league level.

Thompson, 26 in June, is a speedster with questions around his hitting ability. One of the fastest players in the league, he has 22 steals in 27 tries over the past two years but has hit just .242/.286/.305, pairing a 4.6% walk rate with a 29.9% strikeout rate. Since August of last year, he has gone from the Rangers to the Royals, Reds, Yankees and Twins via waiver claims. He still has a couple of options and could be valuable to other clubs as an optionable role player, as his speed naturally helps him both with baserunning and in running down balls in the outfield.

Duarte, 27, has also been a mainstay of the transaction logs this offseason, having gone from the Reds to the Rangers in a cash deal and then to the Twins via a waiver claim. He tossed 31 2/3 innings with the Reds last year with a solid 3.69 ERA. He got grounders on half the balls in play he allowed but only struck out 16.9% of opponents while giving out walks at a 14.7% clip. A .218 batting average on balls in play and 81.6% strand rate helped to keep runs off the board, which is why his 5.84 FIP and 5.52 SIERA weren’t nearly as exciting.

But his Triple-A work has been much more interesting. In 35 innings at that level last year, he posted a 3.34 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate and 51.8% ground ball rate. He still has one option year remaining and could serve as optionable bullpen depth, which is why various clubs around the league have acquired him this offseason.

Balazovic, 25, was a fifth-round pick of the Twins in 2016 and shot up prospect lists as he climbed the minor league ladder. In 2019, he posted a combined 2.69 ERA between Single-A and High-A and Baseball America ranked him the #95 prospect in the league going into 2020. The minors were canceled by the pandemic that year but the righty got a roster spot in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

He proceeded fairly well in 2021, as he made 20 Double-A starts with a 3.62 ERA, but things seemed to come off the rails the year after that. He was lit up for a 7.39 ERA in 22 Triple-A appearances in 2022, with Baseball America highlighting that his stuff had diminished in terms of velocity.

Last year, he and the Twins were surely hoping for some kind of bounceback, but things got off to an ominous start. It was reported in February that he had a broken jaw due to “an altercation away from the field.” He eventually returned to health and made his major league debut, with a 4.44 ERA in 24 1/3 innings. But he struck out just 15.7% of hitters in that time while walking 11.1%. In 45 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, he had a 5.32 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, 15.2% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.

He is now out of options and would have needed an active roster spot if the Twins wanted to hang onto him. It seems they weren’t prepared to do that, so he has been bumped off the 40-man entirely. He’s likely to draw interest from somewhere based on his former top prospect status. The results of late weren’t pretty but he was still getting strikeouts and grounders in the minors last year. But any club looking to acquire him would need to deal with his out-of-options status once the season begins.

Phillies Claim Max Castillo, Designate Simon Muzziotti

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The Phillies are set to claim right-hander Max Castillo off waivers from the Red Sox, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Outfielder Simon Muzziotti will be designated for assignment in order to clear space on the 40-man roster.

Castillo, 24, will provide the Phillies with some optionable rotation depth. He’s pitched in the majors in each of the past two seasons between the Blue Jays and Royals, combining for a 5.43 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground-ball rate in 59 2/3 innings. Castillo was one of two players the Royals received in the 2022 trade sending Whit Merrifield to Toronto, and Baseball America ranked him 18th among Kansas City farmhands heading into the 2023 season. He pitched a total of 136 1/3 innings between Triple-A (4.58 ERA) and the majors (4.43 ERA).

While he’s not a big-time power arm (93.2 mph average on his four-seamer), Castillo has above-average command and an above-average changeup that have generally helped him post solid minor league results. Scouting reports prior to his MLB debut pegged him as a potential fifth starter or swingman. In seven minor league seasons, Castillo has a 4.04 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate.

The Phillies’ rotation depth beyond their top five starters has been an area of focus since the team re-signed Aaron Nola. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke about the matter last month, noting that it’s been difficult to lure veterans on minor league deals, as the nature of the Philadelphia rotation doesn’t leave much opportunity for pitchers of that ilk to work their way into the mix. Zack Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker are all established veterans, and fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez posted a 3.44 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings last year.

Castillo joins left-hander Kolby Allard, who recently inked a split big league deal, as a newcomer to the 40-man roster who has can be optioned and thus provide some flexibility at the back of the rotation, should the need arise. As the season draws closer, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Phils land a veteran starter or two on a minor league deal with an eye toward further supplementing their depth. The Phils lost top prospect Andrew Painter to Tommy John surgery last summer, and prospects like Mick Abel and Griff McGarry have barely pitched above the Double-A level.

In order to beef up their starting pitching depth, the Phils will potentially whittle away at an already thin group of outfielders. Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos appear likely to roam the outfield on most days, with DH Kyle Schwarber also available for occasional left field work (probably on days when Castellanos gets a breather at DH). Reserve option Cristian Pache, Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa are all ticketed for bench jobs to begin the season, but Muzziotti was the only minor league outfielder on the team’s 40-man roster. Just as the Phillies might look for rotation veterans willing to take non-roster deals and come to spring training, outfielders of that ilk could also be a priority in the next few weeks.

Some of that hinges on whether Muzziotti, 25, remains with the team. He went 1-for-7 in a very brief MLB debut in 2023 but had a solid .293/.358/.404 showing in the upper minors. Muzziotti smacked seven homers, swiped 26 bases, walked at an 8.6% rate and struck out in just 15.5% of his plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He has experience in all three outfield spots (though Baseball America suggests he’s best suited for corner work), and Muzziotti also has a minor league option remaining. Another team looking for outfield depth could well place a claim on waivers or look to swing a small trade to bring him aboard. The Phillies will have a week to attempt to trade Muzziotti or pass him through outright waivers.

Red Sox, Dalton Guthrie Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie, per the transaction log at MiLB.com.

Guthrie has logged MLB time with the Phillies in each of the past two seasons, albeit in a quite limited role. The 28-year-old has tallied 28 plate appearances in each season while appearing in a combined total of 37 games. In that small sample, he’s batted .244/.393/.333 with a hefty 16.1% walk rate against a 25% strikeout rate.

Beyond a decent showing in limited MLB work, Guthrie touts a solid .289/.357/.434 slash in parts of three Triple-A seasons. He’s not a big power threat, with just 16 long balls in 856 plate appearances at that level, but he’s generally shown decent contact skills and provided a good bit of defensive versatility. Guthrie has played at least 582 innings at each of shortstop, second base, third base and center field, and he’s logged a combined 688 innings in the outfield corners (398 in right, 290 in left). The former Florida Gator was a sixth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2017.

Over the past year, Guthrie has begun to bounce around the league. The Phils selected his contract in September of 2022 but designated him for assignment last June when they needed to open a roster spot for Darick Hall’s return from the 60-day IL. Guthrie was traded to the Giants for cash, designated for assignment three weeks later, and then claimed off waivers by the Braves a week after that. He didn’t appear in a big league game with Atlanta, who designated him for assignment at the trade deadline and succeeded in passing him through waivers. Guthrie elected minor league free agency at season’s end.

Guthrie will add a right-handed bat to the Red Sox’ bench competition, and his experience playing just about anywhere on the diamond could serve him well as he tries to work his way back to the big leagues. Bench options currently on Boston’s 40-man roster include Enmanuel Valdez, Rob Refsnyder, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec and David Hamilton.

Justin Turner Discusses Red Sox Departure

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With David Rubenstein’s ownership group set to buy the Orioles, there have been some inevitable questions about which MLB team might be the next to be put onto the market.  The Twins can be firmly removed from that discussion, as Joe Pohlad told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that “we are not considering [selling].  We are in it for the long term.”

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, and Joe (Carl’s grandson) is now the third generation of the family to oversee the team’s day-to-day operations.  “This is something that brings our family together, something we enjoy being a part of. We love getting together at the ballpark,” Joe Pohlad said.  “And not only is it a family asset, it’s a community asset.  We take that seriously, being part of the community and stewards of the team.”  The younger Pohlad’s first year overseeing the Twins was a notable one, as Minnesota won the AL Central and then won their first playoff series since 2022 before bowing out in the ALDS.

As we say hey to a baseball legend on Willie Mays Day, here are some more items from around the league

  • “The Blue Jays were one of the first teams that reached out” once free agency began, Justin Turner told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and this aggression paid off when Turner and the Jays agreed to a one-year, $13MM deal earlier this week.  The veteran infielder is excited to be joining his new club, though also expressed some bittersweet feelings about leaving the Red Sox after a successful first season in Boston.  He opted out of the second year of his two-year deal but said that “right when the season ended, I assumed that it would be a no-brainer, that I would try to work something out and come back.”  However, Turner feels the changeover in Boston’s front office might’ve delayed the process, and “as time went on, it was appearing to be less and less likely” that a return to the Sox was in the cards.
  • Brent Suter was one of the few pitching bright spots for the Rockies last season, so it isn’t surprising that GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team “had a lot of discussions with Suter’s agent prior and after he became a free agent.”  No deal was reached, however, and Suter ended signing with his hometown Reds for a one-year, $3MM contract.
  • The Marlins have hired Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new VP of player personnel, according to the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (X link).  Mondry-Cohen is best known for his long stint in the Nationals organization, as he rose from an internship in 2009 to an assistant general manager role at the time of his departure at the end of the 2021 season.  Acting as the club’s director of research and development, Mondry-Cohen is credited with more or less building Washington’s analytics division from scratch, with the 2019 World Series title acting as the crown jewel of an overall very successful decade for the organization.  Mondry-Cohen consulted for the Phillies in 2022, worked in the White Sox baseball operations department last season, and he’ll now take on an important new set of responsibilities under new Miami president of baseball ops Peter Bendix.

Tony Kemp Getting Interest From Five Teams

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The Blue Jays, Pirates, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees have all shown interest in veteran second baseman/left fielder Tony Kemp, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports.  These are the first teams linked to Kemp this offseason, as the 32-year-old is a free agent for the first time in his career.

One of the few experienced players on a young and rebuilding A’s team, Kemp has spent the last four years in Oakland, bridging the gap between the last contending Athletics club and its current state of extreme teardown.  Most of his playing time has some against right-handed pitching (though Kemp’s career splits are pretty even against both righties and lefties), and Zack Gelof’s emergence at second base meant that Kemp was mostly a left fielder in the back half of the 2023 season.

Kemp’s own lack of production didn’t help his cause for more playing time, as he hit only .209/.303/.304 over 419 plate appearances last year.  Kemp posted strong numbers in a part-time capacity with the A’s in 2021 and the Astros in 2018, though he has generally been a below-average hitter during his career, with a 94 wRC+.

It seems likely that any of Kemp’s suitors would be viewing him as a bench piece or platoon option at best, plus the respected Kemp would be a boost in any clubhouse.  While he played some center field early in his career and he has a handful of games as a right fielder and shortstop, it seems like Kemp is pretty set as a two-position player, and the public defensive metrics have been more positive about his work as a left fielder than at second base.

Of the five teams mentioned by Murray, the Red Sox might be the cleanest fit for Kemp given that Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom (their projected left field/second base starters) are both right-handed hitters.  Utilityman Rob Refsnyder is right-handed and infield backup Enmanuel Valdez is short on big league experience, perhaps creating an opening for Kemp on the roster.  Red Sox manager Alex Cora is also a familiar face, as Cora was on Houston’s coaching staff during Kemp’s time with the Astros.

The Pirates have a pretty crowded second-base competition heading into the season, with Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and others all battling for time at the keystone.  While the Bucs would prefer to see one of their youngsters grab the job, adding a seasoned player like Kemp could help add some depth in the event that nobody really breaks out.  Kemp’s reputation as a leader could also be particularly useful for a young Pirates team, particularly after several players spoke of how the addition of such veteran voices as Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana helped the club last year.

New York, Cincinnati, and especially Toronto could all use some more left-handed balance in their lineups, though Kemp isn’t as clear-cut of a fit given how all three of these teams are already pretty deep in second base and left field options.  Kemp’s experience could again be a factor here as something more of a proven commodity, in case any of the Reds’ prized young infielders need some more minor league seasoning or if the Yankees want some depth in case Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza don’t develop at the plate.

Latest On Mets’, Red Sox’ DH Plans

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Earlier this offseason, the Mets were frequently rumored to be interested in adding a bat to their DH mix after parting ways with Dan Vogelbach at the non-tender deadline back in November. It now appears the club may have other priorities, however. According to a recent report from Will Sammon of The Athletic, the club intends to stick with its internal options at DH rather make a splash on the free agent market for a player such as J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler, at least without prices falling “dramatically.” Sammon goes on to note that the club did not aggressively pursue deals with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez or first baseman Rhys Hoskins before the duo signed with the Dodgers and Brewers last month.

The news isn’t necessarily a surprise given comments from president of baseball operations David Stearns last month, which indicated that the club wasn’t interested in taking opportunities away from young players with veteran additions this winter. To that end, Sammon indicates that the likeliest use of the DH in Queens this year figures to involve plenty of playing time for 24-year-old slugger Mark Vientos, with DJ Stewart and Starling Marte also getting time at DH in addition to occasional reps in the outfield.

Vientos has struggled to a .205/.255/.354 slash line to this point in his big league career, but has just 274 trips to the plate in the majors under his belt. The youngster crushed Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .306/.387/.612 slash line in 61 games at the level last year and owns a career .247/.377/.499 line across six seasons in the minor leagues. The 30-year-old Stewart, meanwhile, spent parts of five seasons in a part-time role with the Orioles to roughly league average results at the plate but showed a bit more promise after joining the Mets on a minor league deal last year. Stewart slashed a solid .244/.333/.506 with 11 homers in just 185 trips to the plate across 58 games with the club last year, though that strong power production came with a hefty 30.3% strikeout rate.

Marte is a much more established hitter at the big league level than the other two likely members of the Mets’ DH mix. The 35-year-old veteran of 12 major league seasons boasts a career slash line of .287/.343/.445 and posted a 134 wRC+ as recently as 2022, but struggled badly in 341 trips to the plate last year amid groin, neck, and migraine issues last year. While Marte figures to be penciled in as the club’s everyday right fielder, the presence of both Stewart and Tyrone Taylor as other corner outfield options figure to give the Mets flexibility to utilize the DH spot for Marte on a semi-regular basis in hopes of keeping him healthier throughout the 2024 campaign.

While the Mets appear to be stepping away from the DH market in favor of internal options, it appears that the Red Sox still have interest in adding a right-handed bat to their lineup to replace the production of Justin Turner, who recently signed with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal. Boston was heavily connected to Hernandez before he signed in L.A. and was reported as a likely landing spot for Adam Duvall last month. More recently, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com opines that a reunion with Duvall still makes for the Red Sox even though his free agency “isn’t as close to a resolution” as those past reports seemed to indicate at the time. Should the 35-year-old slugger ultimately land elsewhere, Cotillo suggests that the likes of Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano, and Randal Grichuk could be potential fallback options for the club. Recent reporting has also linked Boston to veteran outfielder Tommy Pham.

It’s worth noting that each of those suggested options has a defensive home outside of DH. While the presence of Triston Casas at first base leaves the likes of Cooper and Cron likely to spend a majority of their time at DH if either were to sign in Boston, Solano has experience all around the infield and could fill a similar role to that of Turner last year as a right-handed hitter who can fill in at first, second, and third base while also getting regular at-bats out of the DH slot. Duvall and Grichuk, meanwhile, have experience at all three outfield spots and could join Tyler O’Neill as a right-handed complement to the club’s lefty-swinging outfield bats such as Masataka Yoshida, Wilyer Abreu, and Jarren Duran. Pham would likely fill a similar role, though he’s largely confined to the corner outfield spots and DH at this point in his career.

While Cotillo indicates that a bat that fits more around the margins of the club’s roster is the most likely addition for Boston to make to its lineup at this point in the winter, he doesn’t completely rule out a more significant addition. Cotillo cautions that a larger addition to the club’s roster is “unlikely at best” given the club’s recent comments, but nonetheless suggests that Soler could be a fit for the club if the club manages to clear payroll space. Reporting last month indicated that the club has fielded trade interest on both Yoshida and veteran closer Kenley Jansen, though a deal involving Jansen appears more likely than one involving Yoshida as things stand.

If the Red Sox can find a way to fit a Soler signing into their budget, he’d likely provide a major boost to the club’s lineup. The slugging outfielder is coming off a phenomenal season with the Marlins where he slashed .250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs and 24 doubles. That sort of production could be transformative for a Boston lineup that got just a .242/.305/.393 line out of its right-handed hitters last year. That slash line is good for a wRC+ of just 86, a bottom-four figure among major league clubs in 2023. By contrast, Soler posted a 126 wRC+ and owns a cumulative 117 wRC+ dating back to the 2018 season.

One bat of significance the Red Sox have no plans to pursue this winter, Cotillo notes, is Martinez. The veteran slugger slashed a strong .292/.363/.526 during his five-season tenure in Boston and crushed 33 home runs in just 117 games for the Dodgers last year, but Cotillo reports that the Red Sox have no interest in a reunion with their long-time DH. While Martinez’s bat is undeniably valuable, he lacks the ability to play the field demonstrated by other options Boston is reportedly considering and, per Cotillo, the veteran’s approach was not “universally loved” in the Red Sox clubhouse and contrasted with the style of leadership exhibited by Turner that made the 39-year-old so popular among his teammates last year.

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