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Latest On Red Sox’ Rotation Plans

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The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation this winter but it remains to be seen how exactly that will play out. They have previously been connected to top free agents such as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, as well as trade candidate Garrett Crochet.

This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox actually want to of those top free agents. Sean McAdam of MassLive reports that the Sox are continuing to keep tabs on the pitching market while engaging with Juan Soto. They did have some interest in lefty Yusei Kikuchi, though it’s unclear how strong that interest was and he now has an agreement with the Angels. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have pulled off the gas a bit there, with some unknown club getting “very aggressive” recently.

Very early in the offseason, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said the club would be looking to the “raise the ceiling” in the rotation and these pursuits all align with that goal. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long track records of major league success, with Burnes having a Cy Young award and Snell having two of them. Fried doesn’t have the hardware but does have a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet only just transitioned to the rotation in 2024 but did so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate in 146 innings.

Any one of those pitchers would be a nice upgrade for Boston or any other club, though that will also make them very popular. In addition to the Sox, those pitchers have been connected to clubs like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that also make sense, even if they haven’t been explicitly tied to those pitchers in rumors.

For the Sox to come away with two of those pitchers would make for quite an aggressive offseason, but that’s exactly what the club has been signaling. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have made comments suggesting the club is planning to act boldly this winter, with Kennedy recently saying that paying the competitive balance tax is on the table. Many fans of the club will bring up last year’s “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner and how those didn’t precede much action last winter, but the club is being more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said the goal is to field a club capable of winning 90 to 95 games and taking the division.

Spending money on free agents is one way they could go about accomplishing that. RosterResource projects the 2025 club for a payroll of $138MM, well below their $184MM spending from 2024, which was itself a drop from what they spent in the previous decade. RR pegs the club’s CBT number at $171MM, which is $70MM below the lowest threshold.

There’s plenty of room in there for two notable contracts, though successfully signing Soto would obviously completely change the calculus, given the expectation that he’ll sign a record-setting contract. Leaving that aside for now, big contracts for two of the big free agent starters is a feasible outcome. As part of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, each of Burnes, Fried and Snell were projected for contracts with average annual values between $26MM and $32MM. Putting two of those onto Boston’s payroll still wouldn’t even get them to the CBT line. They will presumably also make additions to the bullpen and maybe the position player group as well, but with a willingness to cross the line, all sorts of possibilities could be on the table for them.

Crochet would be far cheaper from a financial perspective, with the biggest cost coming in the form of prospect capital. Since he has spent so much of his career either working in relief or injured, he is down to two years of club control but hasn’t been able to raise his salary very high through the arbitration process. He made just $800K in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to just $2.9MM in 2025. He would be due another raise in 2026 before he’s slated to become a free agent.

Two years of an ace-caliber pitcher for that kind of money is tremendous value, which is why Crochet figures to be very popular in trade talks. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could certainly get a deal done if they wanted to, though it seems some mystery club has pulled ahead of them, per McAdam’s reporting.

For now, the Boston rotation projects to be fronted by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024 but may have run out of gas, as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 mark in the second. Bello and Crawford are each coming off decent but not outstanding seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35-4.50 range. Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix in 2025 but they are fairly unknown quantities right now as each underwent internal brace surgery in 2024.

Adding to that group would improve Boston’s chances in 2025 while bumping guys like Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester to depth roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.

The interest in Kikuchi suggests that the Sox are also open to some of mid-market options. With Kikuchi now gone, some of the other names that could be in line for somewhat similar deals include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and old friend Nick Pivetta.

The qualifying offer will likely be a factor, depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible to receive a QO, Snell and Eovaldi because they had already received one and Flaherty because he was traded midseason. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino rejected QOs, meaning the Sox would have to forfeit their second-best pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international bonus pool space to sign them. Pivetta rejected a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they stand to receive a compensation pick just ahead of the third round if he signs elsewhere, though they would not receive that pick if they ultimately re-sign him.

Teams Expected To Make Offers To Juan Soto This Week

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The sweepstakes to land superstar free agent Juan Soto is set to enter its next phase, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported this afternoon that teams are expected to begin sending offers to the outfielder’s camp this week. Olney adds that to this point in the process, Soto has been meeting with teams and allowing Soto and the officials of interested clubs to get to know each other. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies have also been reported to be planning a meeting with Soto, while the Giants, Rays, and Royals are all known to be among the teams to have reached out to Soto as well, though no meetings between Soto and any of those clubs are publicly known to have occurred and the Royals already reportedly view the offseason’s top free agent as outside of their comfort zone.

Of course, that aforementioned list of teams is surely not exhaustive. As-of-yet unreported clubs have surely contacted and perhaps even met with Soto as he prepares to sign what figures to be the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value this winter. As a two-time MVP finalist and career .285/.421/.532 hitter who’s hitting the market ahead of his age-26 season, Soto stands as the rare free agent who would make sense for virtually any contention timeline and stand as an upgrade to all 30 ball clubs, leaving his market to be limited more by teams’ willingness to spend enough to land him rather than positional or competitive fit.

The general consensus around the game seems to be that the Yankees and Mets are the favorites for Soto’s services, as both deep-pocketed New York teams appear motivated as the Yankees look to retain their key addition from last offseason who helped take the club from missing the playoffs in 2023 to an AL pennant this past season while the Mets hope to build on a 2024 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS for the first time since 2015. Soto naturally has a place in the Yankees lineup as their incumbent right fielder, though he might make even more sense for a Mets club that could push Starling Marte to DH in order to accommodate the addition of Soto given the fact that the acquisition of Soto forced the Yankees to use Aaron Judge as their everyday center fielder last year.

That doesn’t mean the other teams in the mix should be counted out, however. The Phillies and Dodgers both already need outfield help this winter and could further bolster the already-excellent lineups that made them the class of the NL this year by landing Soto. The Blue Jays figure to be especially motivated after falling just short in last winter’s Ohtani sweepstakes and subsequently missing the playoffs in 2024, while the Red Sox appear ready to resume spending in accordance with their market size this winter after spending the past several winters on the periphery of free agency. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at all 30 clubs in the context of the Soto sweepstakes of Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

While Soto has emphasized the importance of team competitiveness in his decision-making and there have been questions about whether he may prefer a team on the east coast given his offseason homes in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and the Dominican Republic, the ultimate factor that figures to separate Soto’s suitors is money. With offers expected to be made over the course of the next week, it’s possible that previously-unknown suitors emerge as contenders for the star’s services or currently reported upon suitors fall behind in the bidding process. It’s also possible that the process begins to move quickly once offers begin to roll in; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that the belief around the game is that Soto could sign during or even before the Winter Meetings, which run from December 9-12 in Dallas next month.

Red Sox Interested In Corbin Burnes

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The Red Sox have already been linked to a wide range of big-name free agents this winter, including most of the top available pitchers.  It comes as no surprise that Corbin Burnes also appears to be on Boston’s radar, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are “in on” Burnes.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said earlier this month at the GM Meetings that the Red Sox “need to raise the ceiling of the rotation” by adding a front-of-the-rotation No. 1 starter type.  Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello project as the top three members of Boston’s current pitching staff, Lucas Giolito is expected to be back from an internal brace surgery relatively close to the start of the season, and the likes of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, or Quinn Priester are the top candidates for the fifth’s starter role.

Adding a pitcher like Burnes naturally makes that group much stronger, as suddenly the Red Sox would have an ace to push everyone down one slot in the rotation, and the younger starters become key depth options if Giolito has any setbacks (or if any of the starters run into injury problems).  In theory, the Sox could even look to turn one of the younger starters into a trade chip, even if it’s probably likelier that Boston just retains all of its pitchers just for the sake of having as much depth as possible.

The Red Sox to have interest in Garrett Crochet’s market, so it is possible the Sox will address their rotation needs via trade rather than via free agency.  Boston’s relatively limited free agent spending in recent years has been well-documented, as Trevor Story’s six-year, $140MM contract is the only nine-figure free agent deal the Red Sox have finalized in the last six offseasons.  That said, the Sox have explored so many premium free agents this winter that it appears the team is again willing to shop on the top shelf of the market — four non-winning records in the last five seasons has undoubtedly spurred some extra aggressiveness.

Burnes is ranked behind only Juan Soto on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents in this year’s class, and the right-hander is projected for a seven-year, $200MM pact.  Just a month removed from his 30th birthday, Burnes hits the open market on the heels of four straight All-Star appearances, and five straight top-eight finishes in the NL and AL Cy Young races.  Burnes took the Cy home in 2021 when he posted a Major League-leading 2.43 ERA in 167 innings with the Brewers.

That innings total was actually the lowest of Burnes’ last four seasons, as he has averaged 197 frames over the 2022-24 seasons.  Beyond the durability, Burnes has a 3.08 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate over the last three seasons, as he remained productive in a new environment after the Brewers traded him to the Orioles last offseason.  Burnes’ 23.1% strikeout rate this season was only a tick above league average, but the rest of his Statcast metrics were impressive, and he added a 48.2% grounder rate to boot.

Because Burnes rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer, any team that signs him would have to face some type of penalty.  In Boston’s case, they would have to surrender $500K in international signing pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  This might be a relatively acceptable loss for the Red Sox, especially since they’d be getting a compensatory pick of their own just before the start of the third round if Nick Pivetta (their own qualified free agent) signed elsewhere.

Red Sox Reportedly Considering Moving Rafael Devers Off Third Base

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The Red Sox have held internal discussions regarding the possibility of moving longtime third baseman Rafael Devers off the position, per a report from MassLive’s Sean McAdam. McAdam goes on to suggest that the club views a trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado with the Cardinals as a potential option to fill their vacancy at the hot corner in the event Devers changes positions, whether that be a move to first base or DH.

The idea of Devers moving to first base has previously been floated by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and The New York Post’s Jon Heyman throughout the offseason so far, though McAdam’s report stands as the first confirmation that a position change for Devers is under internal consideration within the organization. Previously, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has declined to comment on the possibility of moving Devers off third beyond saying that the club wouldn’t seriously entertain the idea without first discussing it with Devers himself. That could be a complicating factor in a position change, as Devers’s agent, Nelson Montes de Oca, recently told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that Devers has no plans to move off the hot corner.

“He is a third baseman,” Montes de Oca told Speier, “and he will continue to play third base and work hard to get better at it. That’s his position, that’s what he likes to play, and that’s what he will be playing.”

Resistance to a position change from Devers’s camp isn’t the only potential obstacle to a move. After all, the Red Sox have an extremely talented incumbent first baseman in Triston Casas, who at just 24 years old remains under team control for four more seasons and has previously expressed interest in signing with Boston on a long-term extension. The youngster missed much of the 2024 season due to injury but is a career .250/.357/.473 (125 wRC+) hitter since making his big league debut late in the 2022 season. There’s been speculation at times this winter that the Red Sox could consider moving on from Casas to land starting pitching, but Breslow was quick to shoot down those rumors earlier this month. Given that, a move to first base for Devers would require the front office to either reverse their stance on dealing Casas or else park him at DH on a regular basis, pushing Masataka Yoshida (and the three years and $55.6MM remaining on his contract) either to the bench or off the roster entirely.

Complicated as a position change for Devers would be, the potential benefits for the club could be substantial. Devers is among the worst fielding third basemen in the sport by most metrics, and a move across the diamond would surely improve the club’s infield defense dramatically. In 2024, Devers was worth -9 Defensive Runs Saved and posted a -5 in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric. That’s the lowest DRS and tied for the lowest FRV among all qualified (min. 750 innings) third basemen this year. Replacing Devers with an average or even slightly below average glove at third would improve the club’s infield defense considerably, but a position change for Devers would likely be just as motivated by it creating an avenue to improving the club’s offense.

If third base were to be opened by Devers moving to first, that would create an easy place for the Red Sox to add a right-handed bat to the lineup. Adding some thump from the right side has been a priority for Boston dating back to the trade deadline, and the club’s need for a right-handed hitter to add to their offense only grew more pronounced when outfielder Tyler O’Neill hit the open market earlier this month. Most attention on this need has been focused on the outfield at this point in the offseason given the club’s reported interest in either a reunion with O’Neill or pivoting to a deal with Teoscar Hernandez, but the club’s outfield remains crowded with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all in the mix for playing time already before considering top prospect Roman Anthony (or veterans Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder), who should be ready to take on a regular role at some point in 2025.

Complicated as that outfield picture already is, it’s easy to see why adding a right-handed bat to the infield could be a preferable, more straightforward option than adding another player to the club’s logjam on the grass. Given that, it’s perhaps no surprise that the club has been connected to both longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and former Brewers shortstop Willy Adames in free agency. Both players have expressed an openness to moving to second base (as well as third, in the case of Adames) if their new club so desires, meaning the addition of either player wouldn’t necessarily require Devers to change positions. With highly-regarded second base prospect Kristian Campbell seemingly in the mix for starts in Boston as soon as Opening Day, however, it’s easy to see why the Red Sox may prefer to install Bregman or Adames at the hot corner and move Devers to first.

While the club’s interest in Bregman and Adames has been reported semi-frequently to this point in the winter, McAdam’s suggestion that Arenado could be a consideration for the Red Sox is the first connection between Boston and the veteran star. Unlike Bregman and Adames, it’s all but unfathomable that a ten-time Gold Glove award winner like Arenado would change positions in deference to Devers, meaning a deal for the 33-year-old would certainly require a position change for the younger star. Arenado is also coming off his second consecutive down season offensively. While he was a finalist for the NL MVP award back in 2022, he’s hit just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in two seasons since then.

That said, Arenado’s defense has remained well above average even if it’s no longer quite as elite as it was during his peak, and that’s allowed him to be a roughly three-win player in each of the past two seasons. While he may no longer offer the same level of impact as Bregman or Adames, the three years and $74MM remaining on the veteran’s contract pales in comparison to the nine-figure sums both free agents are expected to land and would likely do little to impede Boston’s pursuit of other top-of-the-market names like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell, especially if a deal involved the Cardinals either retaining some money or taking on a sizable portion of Yoshida’s contract in return. Any deal involving Arenado, of course, would require the veteran’s approval given his full no-trade clause. While the 33-year-old hasn’t requested a trade to this point, both he and the Cardinals appear to be open to parting ways if the right deal comes along given the club’s plans to retool and focus on youth in 2025.

Red Sox Re-Sign Bryan Mata, Isaiah Campbell To Minor League Deals

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The Red Sox brought back right-handers Isaiah Campbell and Bryan Mata on minor league contracts, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Both players were designated for assignment on Tuesday when the Sox added a pair of prospects to their 40-man roster.

Boston waited until tonight’s non-tender deadline to cut them loose, thereby sending them to free agency without needing to run them through waivers. They evidently had a handshake agreement with both pitchers to circle back to the organization without occupying a 40-man spot. Both pitchers will be in big league camp as non-roster invitees, per Cotillo.

Mata, 25, was once among the most highly-touted pitchers in the Boston system. The Venezuela native posted excellent numbers in the low minors and earned a 40-man roster spot after the 2020 season. He unfortunately hasn’t made it to the big leagues four years later, largely because of injury. Mata underwent Tommy John surgery early in the ’21 campaign. He hasn’t topped 83 innings in a minor league season since then.

A hamstring strain limited him to 22 2/3 innings between four minor league levels this year. Mata turned in a 4.37 ERA as he tried to work to the majors. He has allowed 4.87 earned runs per nine through 87 career Triple-A frames. Mata has struggled to throw strikes consistently, but he routinely posts huge ground-ball numbers.

Campbell, 27, also lost most of the season to injury. Acquired from the Mariners last offseason for infielder Luis Urías, he only pitched 6 2/3 innings in a Sox uniform. Campbell was blitzed for 13 runs in that small sample, a far cry from the 2.83 ERA he posted in 27 appearances for the Mariners as a rookie. The Arkansas product missed time with both a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation amidst a difficult year. He fared much better in a limited sample in Triple-A, where he struck out 19 batters while allowing only four runs over 16 1/3 innings.

Tigers Claim Bailey Horn From Red Sox

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The Tigers claimed lefty reliever Bailey Horn from the Red Sox, according to an announcement from Boston. The Sox had not previously announced a DFA for Horn, so their 40-man roster count drops to 39.

An Auburn product, Horn has bounced around the league as a pro. He was drafted by the White Sox, traded to the Cubs, dealt back to the White Sox and then flipped to Boston. The 26-year-old southpaw pitched in his first 18 big league games this year. Horn allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over 18 innings. He recorded 13 strikeouts, walked 10 and surrendered five home runs.

Throwing strikes has been an issue for Horn throughout his career. He has walked nearly 13% of batters faced over four seasons in the minors. That’s bordering on untenable, even for a middle reliever. A few teams have been intrigued by his raw stuff, though. Horn averaged 95 MPH on his fastball during his big league look. He still has a couple option seasons remaining, so there’s time for the Tigers to try to smooth out his control if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster.

American League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Angels announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Patrick Sandoval, infielder Eric Wagaman, as well as outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio. You can read more about those moves here.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Athletics announced that they did not tender a contract to right-hander Dany Jiménez, who was projected for a $1MM salary. He posted a 4.91 in 25 appearances for the A’s in 2024. He struck out 21.4% of opponents but gave out walks at a 16.2% clip.
  • The Blue Jays are planning to non-tender righty Dillon Tate, per Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). Tate was just claimed off waivers at the start of September and had a projected salary of $1.9MM. He’s a former fourth overall pick with some good numbers in his career but he missed most of 2023 due to injury and then posted a 4.66 ERA in 2024. The Jays are also non-tendering righty Jordan Romano, which you can read more about here.
  • The Guardians have non-tendered outfielder George Valera and right-hander Connor Gillispie, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). Both players were designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Mariners are going to non-tender outfielder Sam Haggerty, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He was limited to just eight games in 2024 due to a torn achilles. He was only projected for a salary of $900K but the M’s have decided to move on. They also non-tendered infielder Josh Rojas and righties Austin Voth and JT Chargois, moves that are covered with more depth here.
  • The Orioles plan to non-tender right-hander Jacob Webb, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). Webb was projected for a salary of $1.7MM next year. The righty tossed 56 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2024 with a 3.02 ERA and 24.5% strikeout rate, but an 11.4% walk rate.
  • The Rays announced they have non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson as well as left-handers Tyler Alexander, Colin Poche and Richard Lovelady. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news (X link) prior to the official announcement. Carlson once seemed like a building block in St. Louis but his offense has declined for three straight years now and he was projected for a $2.7MM salary. Alexander was projected for $2.8MM and had a 5.10 ERA this year. Poche had a solid 3.86 ERA but was projected for $3.4MM. Lovelady was designated for assignment a few days ago.
  • The Rangers tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Red Sox announced that right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell were both non-tendered. Those two had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Royals tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Tigers announced that they have non-tendered infielder Eddys Leonard as well as right-handers Ricky Vanasco, Brendan White and Wilmer Flores. Three of those four were designated for assignment earlier this week. Flores, the lone exception, is the younger brother of the same-named Wilmer Flores of the Giants. The younger Flores was once a notable pitching prospect but was injured for most of 2024.
  • The Twins tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Yankees have non-tendered infielder Jon Berti, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He was projected for a salary of $3.8MM. He was injured for much of the year and only got into 25 games. The Yankees also announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Tim Mayza, who was projected for a $4MM salary but had a 6.33 ERA in 2024.
  • The White Sox will non-tender first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets, which MLBTR covered earlier today. The Sox later announced Sheets and also that they non-tendered right-hander Enyel De Los Santos as well. De Los Santos was projected for a salary of $1.7MM but posted a 5.20 ERA this year.

Red Sox Add José Flores, Parker Guinn To Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox announced their 2025 coaching staff today. José Flores has been named the first base coach/infield instructor while Parker Guinn has been hired as the catching instructor/bullpen catcher. The other names are either returnees from 2024 or previously-reported hirings.

Flores, 53, is an internal promotion. He spent the past three seasons as the bench coach for Triple-A Worcester. But this isn’t his first time on a big league staff, as he was the first base/infield coach for the Phillies and Orioles in the years prior to joining Worcester. He has also worked for several other minor league clubs and team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.

Guinn, 31, spent several years coaching for various schools in the college ranks before getting into affiliated ball. He spent the past two years as manager for the Yankees in the Dominican Summer League. Prior to that, he spent time with the University of Washington, Everett Community College, University of Utah, and Southern Illinois Edwardsville University.

Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

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The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

Kennedy: Red Sox Willing To Pay Competitive Balance Tax In 2025

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Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”

Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.

Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.

Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.

“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”

Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.

That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.

Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.

Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.

However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”

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