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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

NL West Notes: Dodgers, LeMahieu, Belt, Greinke

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Entering the Winter Meetings with a wide variety of potential moves under consideration, the Dodgers will “in all likelihood” move an existing starter via trade, ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. Just what the might look like isn’t yet clear, but the club’s numerous options will surely hold appeal to rivals. To be sure, the Dodgers have found ways on numerous occasions in the recent past to juggle seeming roster overloads, but Gonzalez says that the ability to utilize a player such as Kenta Maeda as a trade piece (while improving in other areas) will likely prod a deal of some kind.

  • The Dodgers, meanwhile, are “showing continued interest” in second bagger DJ LeMahieu, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Certainly, the club has seen plenty of the 30-year-old over his career, virtually all of which has taken place with the division-rival Rockies. LeMahieu would presumably be seen as a near-everyday piece at second base in Los Angeles, though it’d hardly be surprising to see a lefty hitting platoon mate utilized to some degree if he’s added. Beyond the team’s general predilection for such arrangements, LeMahieu has been 80 OPS points better against left-handed pitching in his career.
  • Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is drawing calls from “several” other teams, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Belt is still owed a hefty $48MM over the next three seasons and also can block deals to ten teams. His worrisome concussion history also poses a clear concern. And, of course, the market has not been particularly kind to first basemen of late. Certainly, Belt’s OBP-heavy bat would promise to improve quite a few lineups around the game, but it’s unclear as yet exactly what kind of trade scenarios might be under consideration.
  • As the Diamondbacks weigh their next move, they are finding Zack Greinke’s partial no-trade rights a “major impediment,” according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Numerous potential landing spots for Greinke appear among the 15 clubs to which he can block a deal, which leaves the veteran no small amount of leverage and complicates things for the Arizona organization. It is not clear whether the D-Backs have engaged with Greinke and his reps about his willingness to green-light a deal to certain destinations, but obviously the clause adds a notable variable to an already-tricky situation. While he’s still a high-level performer, Greinke is already 35 years of age and is entitled to a hefty $104.5MM ($95.5MM of salary, the remainder signing bonus) over the next three seasons.

Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West

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With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.

We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:

  1. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history.  He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance.  Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers.  Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw.  Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark.  The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year.  Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed.  The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward.  A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
  3. Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs.  But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews.  Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats.  With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
  4. Brandon Belt, Giants:  No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’  Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position.  His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
  5. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame.  With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.

Brandon Belt Likely Done For The Season, Could Require Knee Surgery

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is headed for another MRI on his right knee and is unlikely to return in 2018, manager Bruce Bochy announced to reporters (Twitter link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). It’s likely that Belt will ultimately require surgery to repair the knee.

Belt, 30, becomes the latest notable Giants player to go down with a season-ending injury, joining Johnny Cueto, Buster Posey, Steven Duggar and Jeff Samardzija in that onerous distinction. He’s faded badly at the plate in recent months after a torrid start to the season that saw him mash at a torrid .307/.403/.547 pace through June 1 before landing on the disabled list to undergo an appendectomy. He homered in his second game back from that DL trip but has struggled immensely overall, turning in a miserable .203/.283/.290 slash through 230 plate appearances.

It’s a disappointing finish to what looked to be a potential breakout campaign for Belt just a few months ago. While he’s long been a decidedly above-average (and at times, even great) hitter, the first two months of Belt’s season were elite (156 wRC+ — which is to say that his overall line was 56 percent better than that of a league-average hitter after being adjusted for home park and league).

Belt is in the second season of a five-year extension worth more than $70MM guaranteed, and he’ll earn $16MM in each of the next three seasons. He’s managed just 216 games over the first two seasons of that contract, as he’s been limited by a pair of concussions in addition to his hyper-extended knee and appendectomy.

NL West Notes: Dozier, Belt, Diamondbacks, Black

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Brian Dozier, mired in a dreadful slump after a hot first week with the Dodgers, spoke to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register about those struggles. Dozier played through a bone bruise in his knee earlier this season, and while he said the knee “feels great” now, he acknowledged that he developed some bad habits at the plate while trying to compensate for it at the time. The 31-year-old Dozier added that he doesn’t believe playing primarily in a platoon capacity has had an adverse impact on him. (The Dodgers’ constant lineup fluctuations based on matchups has been a source of frustration for many of their fans.) Dozier will be a free agent at season’s end, but the .218/.306/.391 slash he’s carrying isn’t likely to do him any favors — particularly when he’ll be heading into his age-32 season next year.

More from the division…

  • Brandon Belt underwent an MRI on his ailing knee, but the Giants aren’t planning to shut him down for the remainder of the season, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Belt is considered day-to-day for the time being, but he’ll start more games before season’s end. It’s been a disastrous summer for Belt — and, really, for most of the Giants’ offense — as his production has cratered after soaring to career-best levels in the season’s first half. Belt, 30, posted a ridiculous .307/.403/.547 batting line through June 1 before landing on the disabled list due to a bout of appendicitis. He never seemed to recover his footing after that, as he’s floundered at a miserable .203/.283/.290 pace since returning. Belt also missed a bit more than two weeks due to a hyperextended knee in late July and early August.
  • Clay Buchholz, whose season ended yesterday due to a flexor mass strain, tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he’d love to return to the Diamondbacks, but there have yet to be any discussions about a new contract between the two sides. Piecoro also chatted with Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, whom the Diamondbacks passed over in favor of Dansby Swanson back in the 2015 Draft. Bregman said he was thrilled to go to the Astros with the No. 2 overall pick but admitted that part of him was also “pissed,” because he’d hoped to be the top overall selection in the draft. He also relayed a story from the 2012 draft, when Arizona showed interest in him as a late first-rounder but instead drafted catcher Stryker Trahan. Arizona called him to see if he’d sign as a second-rounder, but Bregman informed the team he planned on attending college at Louisiana State University.
  • In a fun Sunday-morning read, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post walks through a typical day in the life of Rockies manager Bud Black during the team’s pennant race — covering everything from an early radio appearance to lineup planning, pre-game media sessions, in-game decisions and post-game work and rituals. Saunders also chats with catcher Chris Iannetta and lefty Kyle Freeland about Black’s managerial style and his teaching methods. “Buddy has a laid-back style, but even though it’s laid back, I wouldn’t say it’s relaxed,” says Iannetta of Black — his fifth big league manager. “…I think it’s the sign of a good manager when he knows when to be hands-on and when to take his hands off.” It’s obviously an extra-appealing read for Rox fans, though fans of any club will still appreciate the detailed look at the day-to-day operations of a big league skipper.

Giants Notes: Front Office, Bochy, Belt

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Although the Giants are mired in their second straight poor season, expectations are that both executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy will return in 2019, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. General manager Bobby Evans may not be as fortunate, though, as Nightengale reports that he’s on the “hot seat.” Evans, previously San Francisco’s assistant general manager, took over the GM role from Sabean in April 2015 as part of a series of promotions. The Giants were the reigning World Series champions at the time, but their results have been disappointing since then, even though they’ve been among the game’s highest-spending teams.

More from San Francisco, which has dropped 11 of 12 this month to fall to 10 games under .500:

  • Giants first baseman Brandon Belt’s season may be over. Belt underwent an MRI on his sore right knee, and if the results aren’t to the Giants’ liking, they’ll shut him down for 2018, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group was among those to report. Belt has been dealing with knee issues since late July, when he landed on the 10-day disabled list and missed two-plus weeks. The 30-year-old’s OPS has dropped nearly 100 points since he returned from the DL (from .842 to .756), which may be thanks in part to his knee. Between Belt’s injury and the fact that the Giants have nothing to play for as their season nears an end, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them put Belt on ice until 2019. Belt remains a key cog for the organization, as he’s due another $48MM on the five-year, $72.8MM extension the Evans-led Giants awarded him in April 2016.
  • While it appears Bochy will return next year (something he’d like to do), at least one member of his staff won’t. The club dismissed strength and conditioning coach Carl Kochan on Thursday, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California. Kochan had been in his seventh season with San Francisco, and his firing is just the first of multiple changes that could occur. The Giants are evaluating “all levels of the organization” at this point, Pavlovic writes.

Giants Activate Brandon Belt

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The Giants have activated Brandon Belt from the 10-day disabled list, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports was among those to report. Right-hander Pierce Johnson was optioned to Triple-A to make room on the active roster.

Belt had to undergo an emergency appendectomy after being rushed to the hospital in the midst of a June 1st game. They’ll certainly be ecstatic to have him back after missing little more than the 10-day minimum, as Belt is in the midst of a career year even as the Giants are limping through the first half of the season with a 34-36 record. The 30-year-old belt sports a .307/.403/.547 slash line and sits sixth on the barrels per plate appearance leaderboard with 11.1.

Johnson, on the other hand, certainly hadn’t done much to cement his spot on the roster. He sports an ugly 5.46 ERA, and though his 4.08 FIP indicates he’s been the victim of some bad luck, he’s also walked nearly as many batters (15) as he’s struck out (20) during his 31 1/3 innings of work. It’s worth noting that 12 of his 19 earned runs came in just three outings, though, and a fairly impressive track record of striking out hitters at Triple-A makes it seem likely he’ll be up again at some point this season.

Giants Place Brandon Belt On DL

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The Giants have placed first baseman Brandon Belt on the 10-day disabled list and activated infielder/outfielder Alen Hanson from the DL, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report. Belt could miss around three weeks, according to manager Bruce Bochy (via Pavlovic).

Belt exited the Giants’ game Friday with appendicitis symptoms and subsequently underwent an appendectomy, so his DL placement doesn’t come as a surprise. Nevertheless, it’s a disappointing development for a San Francisco club that has gotten off to a 27-30 start. The Giants’ sub-.500 ways certainly aren’t the fault of Belt, who’s in the midst of a career season. The 30-year-old has slashed a tremendous .307/.403/.547 with 11 home runs in 226 plate appearances. His output has been 60 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

Hanson, 25, had been enjoying a terrific season before he went on the DL on May 14 with a hamstring strain. The offseason minor league signing opened 2018 with a .298/.346/.638 line and four home runs over just 52 PAs prior to landing on the shelf. Hanson saw action at second base and left field along the way, though he has also lined up at third base, shortstop and the other two outfield positions during his short major league career.

NL West Notes: Belt, Lamb, Rockies, Hoffman, Chatwood

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt and Angels right-hander Jaime Barria carved out a unique spot for themselves in baseball history on Sunday, as the two set a modern-day record with a 21-pitch plate appearance.  The epic battle finally ended with Belt lining out to right field, though the accumulation certainly took its toll on Barria and the Angels bullpen — Barria, making his second career MLB start, lasted just two-plus innings in the game on 77 pitches.  The historic at-bat was just one noteworthy moment of a big day for Belt, who went 3-for-5 with a home run in the Giants’ 4-2 victory.

Some items from around the NL West…

  • An MRI revealed that Jake Lamb has tendinitis in his right elbow, and Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that the third baseman will be shut down for a few days.  Lamb appeared in just four games before hitting the disabled list due to a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, and the Snakes were hopeful that he could return to action this week before this new injury cropped up.  Deven Marrero and Daniel Descalso have served as a third base platoon in Lamb’s absence.
  • The Rockies announced that right-hander Jeff Hoffman will not be optioned to Triple-A, and will instead remain on the 10-day DL and pitch at Triple-A on a rehab assignment. (MLB.com’s Thomas Harding was among those to report the news.)  The former top prospect has been sidelined with a shoulder problem, though Hoffman has managed 11 innings in the minors as he works his way back from the injury.
  • The Rockies didn’t make Tyler Chatwood an offer last winter, which didn’t come as much surprise to the right-hander, as he tells The Athletic’s Nick Groke (subscription required).  “Toward the end of the year, the writing was on the wall that I wasn’t coming back.  I think the feeling was mutual,” Chatwood said.  A change of scenery certainly seemed likely for Chatwood given his very rough career numbers at Coors Field; he mentioned to Groke that his two-seam fastball was particularly ineffective in the thin air.  The general belief around the game was that Chatwood could flourish in a less hitter-friendly environment, which made him a hot commodity in free agency and led to a three-year, $38MM deal with the Cubs.  His first three starts for Chicago have been mixed to say the least, as Chatwood has a 4.60 ERA and an ungainly 14 walks (against 18 strikeouts) over 15 2/3 innings.

Giants Notes: Otani, Sabean, Belt

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The Giants have seemingly signaled their intentions to partake in the Shohei Otani sweepstakes. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, GM Bobby Evans and AGM Jeremy Shelley each went to watch the 23-year-old Japanese star. While the Giants, like several other teams, would be limited to offering only a miserly $300K bonus to Otani, the organization does have a winning history and the city of San Francisco on offer. In any event, to the extent Otani does consider earnings, he’ll likely be more motivated by his second contract than his first — with increasing speculation focusing on the possibility that teams will discuss early-career extension scenarios in wooing the two-way player.

More from San Francisco:

  • President of baseball operations Brian Sabean tells the Chronicle’s Bruce Jenkins that he began having some concerns with the team’s 2017 outlook in Spring Training. Needless to say, it became apparent rather early on in the season that things weren’t headed in a positive direction. Now, says the veteran executive, the club needs to “put a fresh look on things.” Among the needs: “to get younger, more athletic, and improve our defense.” That will be easier said than done, but Sabean says the organization will “have to be very open-minded and aggressive on the trade front” and will “have to be creative, and in some cases, bold.”
  • Turning this general approach into specific moves figures to be the real challenge, of course. As Jenkins explains, the club has a variety of difficult player/contract situations on the roster. Interestingly, he reports that skipper Bruce Bochy “would welcome a new look” at first base. While Brandon Belt has never been a major source of home runs and has been limited by unfortunate concussion problems, he has also been a steadily productive batter — posting a 128 wRC+ in over three thousand career plate appearances. Indeed, just last winter the club awarded him with an extension that Jenkins now labels as “burdensome.” Attempting to upgrade, though, may well cost yet more and the likelihood of even achieving improved production seems rather dubious.
  • If the Giants really decided they needed to move Belt, he’d draw plenty of interest due to his well-rounded offensive profile, though surely other organizations would be wary of the health concerns. Though he did just go on the 60-day DL — effectively ending his season — Belt was able to do some running on the field yesterday. He tells Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link) that he has finally “turned a corner” and “just started feeling good,” which is certainly good to hear given the nature of his injury. Hopefully, Belt will be able to recover fully over the offseason.
  • Sabean also chatted about some other topics of interest with Jenkins. He had kind words for Evans, calling him “driven and patient” while also acknowledging that his successor has overseen a difficult turn in the team’s competitiveness. And the veteran exec also touched upon the always interesting matter of weighing statistical analysis and scouting, crediting the importance of numbers while also offering a colorful explication of his belief in the importance of performing in key situations.

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