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Brandon Belt

Brandon Belt Accepts Qualifying Offer With Giants

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Brandon Belt is staying in San Francisco, as the MLB Players Association announced this evening that he has chosen to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer. He’ll play next season on an $18.4MM salary.

Belt has spent his entire career in black and orange, first joining the organization when they selected him in the 2009 draft. The left-handed hitter was in the big leagues by 2011, and he’s spent the past decade as the Giants’ primary first baseman. He signed a long-term extension in April 2016 to guarantee he’d spend at least his first eleven major league seasons in the Bay Area, and he’s now set to return for a twelfth.

This offseason would’ve been presented Belt with his first opportunity to test free agency. After ten days for he and his representatives at Excel Sports Management to explore the market, he’s decided to forego that possibility. Instead, he’ll return to a franchise and city with which he’s clearly comfortable on a strong one-year pact. The current collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tagging a player with a QO more than once in his career. Assuming no changes to that provision in the next CBA, Belt is on track to hit free agency next winter without draft pick compensation attached.

That’d only be necessary, of course, if Belt and the Giants don’t agree on another long-term deal within the next twelve months. Players and teams are free to negotiate an extension even after a player accepts the QO. That’s not common, but it’s also not unheard of. Over the 2019-20 offseason, the White Sox and José Abreu lined up on a three-year deal just eight days after Abreu had accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer. Belt’s reps have recently discussed the possibility of a multi-year pact, and today’s development wouldn’t foreclose them continuing to do so.

Regardless of whether a long-term deal gets done, the Giants are surely thrilled to welcome Belt back in 2022. Not only is he a respected member of the organization, he’s coming off perhaps the best two-year stretch of his career. Going back to the start of 2020, the 33-year-old owns a .285/.393/.595 line with 38 home runs across 560 trips to the plate. Among those with 500+ plate appearances, only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper have topped Belt’s offensive output, by measure of wRC+.

As he has throughout his career, Belt has backed up that bottom line production with elite batted ball metrics. He’s been in the top six percent of the league in each of the past two seasons in Statcast’s barrel rate — essentially how often he makes hard contact at the optimal angle for extra-base impact. His overall hard contact rate and average exit velocity are also above par. And Belt gets to that authoritative contact without selling out for power. His 24.8% strikeout rate over the past two seasons is only a tick higher than the league average, while he’s drawn walks in a fantastic 13.9% of his appearances in the batter’s box.

While there’s little question about Belt’s status as an impact middle-of-the-order presence, his profile isn’t without red flags. Because he signed a mid-career extension, his first trip to the open market was set to come in advance of his age-34 campaign. Teams have become increasingly reluctant to dole out lofty multi-year deals for players through their mid-30’s, and that’s especially true of defensively-limited boppers. And while Belt has been great when healthy, he’s also been dinged up fairly frequently throughout his career.

Since emerging as a regular in 2012, Belt has only topped 500 plate appearances in four seasons. He’s dealt with repeated concussion issues in the past, and he’s gone on the injured list four times within the last two years alone. None of those issues resulted in long-term absences during the season, but Belt underwent right heel surgery last offseason and wasn’t able to partake in the Giants’ NL Division Series in 2021 after fracturing his left thumb on a hit-by-pitch in late September.

Between his age, position and injury history, Belt apparently wasn’t generating such interest over the past ten days that he felt compelled to pass up on a strong one-year offer. He’ll return to the middle of the order on a Giants team that’ll enter the season with astronomical expectations after winning a franchise-record 107 games. He’ll be joined by fellow franchise mainstay Brandon Crawford, but the club will have their work cut out for them in replacing the production and presence of Buster Posey, after the likely future Hall of Famer announced his retirement two weeks ago.

Belt’s return adds $18.4MM to the 2022 books, but that’s well within their range of comfortability. The front office was content with the possibility of Belt returning at that price when they made the QO, with good reason. Even after factoring in Belt’s return, San Francisco has just $97MM in estimated commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of the franchise’s $200MM heights, leaving plenty of room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff to add to a roster that’s facing the potential departure of four-fifths of its 2021 starting rotation.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the news.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Notes: Belt, DeSclafani, Suzuki

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Brandon Belt has until November 17 to decide on whether to accept or reject the $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, but the club isn’t just twiddling their thumbs in the meantime. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that they met with his representatives today and “discussed several contract formats.”

After a down year in 2019, Belt has been one of the best hitters on the planet for the past couple years. Over the past two seasons, he has hit .285/.393/.595, producing a wRC+ of 163, which is third-best in MLB among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. However, the first baseman, who turns 34 in April, has been often limited by injuries. Only one of his past five campaigns saw him get into more than 112 games, and it happened to be that down year in 2019. In 2021, it was just 97 games. Still, the production is strong enough that the Giants are happy to retain him, as evidenced by the extension of the QO, but also on whatever type of multi-year deal they discussed today.

A few months ago, the club extended their other Brandon for two-years and $32MM, which could perhaps be the type of deal they’re offering Belt now, slightly less money than the QO on an annual basis, but over a longer term. MLBTR recently predicted that Belt would accept the QO and try to re-enter the market a year from now, after he has hopefully had better health and seen the NL implement the DH.

Baggarly also reports that the club met with representatives for righty Anthony DeSclafani and discussed multi-year deals for him. Zaidi has already made it clear that the rotation is the “number one priority“, which makes a lot of sense given that it currently consists of just Logan Webb, on account of DeSclafani reaching free agency, as well as Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. DeSclafani, 32 in April, had a miserable season for the Reds in 2020 but righted the ship nicely in 2021. After being picked up by the Giants, he tossed 167 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.17. MLBTR, in the same pieced linked above, recently predicted he would garner three years and $42MM, an annual average value of $14MM.

But the Giants aren’t just considering their departing free agents, of course. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they have interest in Seiya Suzuki, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams soon. Baggarly quotes Zaidi as saying that a right-handed hitting outfielder like Suzuki “kind of fits our team.” That’s a bit of an understatement, as their current outfield skews heavily the other way, with Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Duggar and Alex Dickerson all hitting from the left side and Austin Slater being the most notable righty. Kris Bryant, who hits right-handed, was brought into the mix at the trade deadline but is now a free agent.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote about the Giants as part of the Offseason Outlook series and noted that they are lined up to be one of the busiest teams this winter, given their multiple openings and limited payroll commitments. Zaidi and the rest of his team are sure to explore each and every opportunity to add to their team this winter, and all indications point to them already doing just that.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Free Agent Notes: Shortstops, Belt, Seager, Hernandez

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After asking 11 rival evaluators to rate the offseason’s top five free agent shortstops on a 1-5 grading scale, ESPN’s Buster Olney reveals the final order was Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez, with Seager claiming 50 of a possible 55 points.  Seager received six of the first-place votes (Correa received four and Semien one) due to his age and big left-handed bat, even though there was some question about his durability and how long he’ll be able to remain at the shortstop position.

All five players carry their share of question marks, which is what will make the shortstop market so fascinating to observe as the many teams in need of shortstop (and overall infield) help will be competing for these names at the top of the market.  Unsurprisingly, the 11 evaluators cite the Yankees and Tigers as likely to land one of the big five shortstops, and teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, and Angels could all be in the mix.  In an additional detail on Semien, there is some feeling that he would like to remain with the Blue Jays, while other evaluators believe the Bay Area native would prefer to play with a team closer to home.

More on other pending or possible free agents…

  • Brandon Belt and the Giants had some in-season negotiations about a contract extension, and while “talks didn’t go anywhere,” NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic feels there is enough mutual interest between the two sides that Belt will return to San Francisco in 2022 and beyond.  Though Belt turns 34 in April and battled multiple injuries, he has also been hitting at the highest level of his career — Belt has hit .285/.393/.595 with 38 home runs over 560 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  The Giants have already worked out an extension with the other member of “the Brandons,” locking up Brandon Crawford to a new two-year deal back in August.
  • “The ship has sailed” on Kyle Seager returning to the Mariners, The Athletic’s Corey Brock opines as part of a reader mailbag.  Brock feels both the team and the veteran third baseman are ready to move on, seemingly precluding any chance of either the M’s exercising their $20MM club option on Seager for 2022, or Seager being open to re-signing with Seattle at a lower price.  Seager seemed to hint at a departure a few weeks ago, when he said that he hadn’t heard anything from the team about the option, and also noted that he hadn’t personally spoken with GM Jerry DiPoto in several years.
  • Speaking of contract options, The Athletic’s James Fegan predicts the White Sox will decline their $6MM club option on Cesar Hernandez for next season.  Hernandez hit only .232/.309/.299 in 217 PA after being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline, so Fegan believes the Sox will be looking to upgrade at the keystone, rather than just retain Hernandez or hand the position to some combination of Leury Garcia, Danny Mendick or Romy Gonzalez.  More offensive production will of course be welcome, but the White Sox might also prioritize a strong second base glove as a way of improving the club’s run-prevention efforts.

Postseason Injury Notes: McCullers, La Stella, Belt, Watson

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Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. departed after four frames yesterday, and manager Dusty Baker told reporters after the contest that the decision was prompted by the right-hander informing the team of some tightness in his right forearm. Pitching coach Brent Strom said after the game (video link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that McCullers acknowledged some elbow tightness, but Strom added that he’s remaining “optimistic” that the issue won’t prove to be major. McCullers, who had Tommy John surgery in 2018, told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and others that he doesn’t believe the issue to be ligament-related. The club will surely evaluate him in the coming days as it determines whether McCullers will be able to contribute to the rotation for their ALCS showdown against the Red Sox.

A couple more key injury scenarios to monitor as the postseason field narrows…

  • Giants infielder Tommy La Stella exited last night’s game with the same Achilles discomfort that has plagued him for the past several weeks, manager Gabe Kapler said after the game (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Despite the ongoing issue, La Stella is expected to be ready to play for tomorrow’s winner-take-all Game 5, per Kapler. There’s an argument to be made for swapping La Stella out for a healthier Thairo Estrada, but removing La Stella from the NLDS roster would also render him ineligible to play in the NLCS. La Stella has three singles in eight at-bats, plus a pair of walks, thus far in the NLDS against the Dodgers. He hit .250/.308/.405 through 242 regular-season plate appearances during the first season of a three-year contract with the Giants. As it stands, the Giants also have Donovan Solano and Wilmer Flores as potential options at second base.
  • The Giants are also seeing progress from injured first baseman Brandon Belt and left-hander Tony Watson, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter links). Belt, still hoping to return from a fractured left thumb at some point during a potential NLCS or World Series run, took grounders and made some throws yesterday. Any throwing is of some note, given that the fracture is in his throwing hand. Meanwhile, Watson tossed a bullpen session yesterday that went well enough for the Giants to believe he’ll be ready to return for the NLCS, should they qualify. Watson has been out since late September due to a shoulder strain. The 36-year-old pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings in his second stint as a Giant after being acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline.

Brandon Belt, Johnny Cueto Not On Giants’ NLDS Roster

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The Giants announced their National League Division Series roster this morning, with first baseman Brandon Belt and right-hander Johnny Cueto representing the most notable omissions. Belt’s absence was entirely expected, as he sustained a fracture in his thumb less than two weeks ago — an injury that initially came with a roughly four-week recovery period. He’s hoping to be able to return if the Giants advance to the NLCS, though there’s no certainty he’ll be able to do so. Cueto’s omission is not injury-related, but he wasn’t slated to make a start in a best-of-five series so the Giants will instead opt for 14 position players and 12 pitchers.

Here’s the roster they’ll carry into their date with their archrival Dodgers…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

There’s no sugar-coating what a tough loss it is for the Giants to be without Belt, who has not only enjoyed a resurgence but has produced at previously unforeseen levels during his age-33 and age-34 seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Belt has been the third-best hitter in all of baseball, by measure of wRC+ (163), trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in that time (min. 500 plate appearances). In his past 560 trips to the plate, Belt has turned in an outrageous .285/.393/.595 batting line and connected on 38 home runs and 27 doubles. Each of Flores, Ruf and Wade has seen time at first base for the Giants this season, and Bryant is certainly capable of slotting in at the position as well.

It’s possible that Cueto could be added back to the NLCS roster — a best-of-seven set that could include games on three consecutive days and thus increase the importance of adding some length to the pitching staff. While it hasn’t been one of Cueto’s best seasons, the 35-year-old posted solid results in 22 appearances (21 of them starts). The two-time All-Star and former Cy Young runner-up tallied 114 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball with an even 20 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 6.1 percent walk rate. He’s in the final season of a six-year, $130MM contract that contains a $22MM club option with a $5MM buyout.

Brandon Belt Expected To Miss Around Four Weeks Due to Thumb Fracture

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SEPTEMBER 28: Belt has been placed on the 10-day injured list, with Thairo Estrada recalled to take his active roster spot. Belt’s fracture is expected to take around four weeks to fully heal, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s possible the club attempts to expedite his return to the field even before the bone is fully healed, with the plan for Belt to be reevaluated on an approximately weekly basis.

That wouldn’t officially end Belt’s season, but it does seem likely the Giants will need to make a deep postseason run (perhaps as far as the World Series) to give him an opportunity to return. Ruf, who is eligible to be activated from his own IL stint this week, seems likely to handle first base for the Giants throughout most of the playoffs.

SEPTEMBER 27: The Giants have announced that an x-ray revealed a fracture in the left thumb of first baseman Brandon Belt, as relayed by several reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Belt was hit on the thumb by a pitch in yesterday’s game and was pulled a short time later. The expected recovery timeline is still unknown right now, as Belt still plans on more meetings with doctors, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. However, for comparison’s sake, both J.T. Realmuto and Joey Votto suffered a fractured thumb earlier this year and missed about a month before returning to action.

This is awful timing for Belt and the Giants, both because the postseason begins in a week and because Belt had been on such a tear of late. Since returning from a knee injury August 5th, Belt’s slash line is an absurd .297/.394/.690, hitting 18 home runs in that stretch. That production is 83% better than league average, according to wRC+. After three straight years of lagging production from 2017 to 2019, Belt has essentially been on fire the past two years. Since the start of the 2020 season, in 148 games, his line is .285/.393/.595. His wRC+ of 163 in that time is the third-best in the majors among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.

As for the team, they are already guaranteed a playoff spot, though which kind is still to be determined. They are currently two games ahead of the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West, with each team having six games remaining. In the absence of Belt, they will likely turn to Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade Jr., who have each seen some time at first base this year. Darin Ruf could be an option down the road, but he himself was just placed on the IL on Thursday with an oblique injury. Those three all have good numbers this year, but the loss of Belt’s potent bat is certainly a blow to the offense, as it would be to any team’s.

It’s also unfortunate timing for Belt, career-wise, as he’s heading into free agency in just over a month. This injury could deny him the ability to add to his postseason ledger, which already includes a pair of World Series titles with the Giants in 2012 and 2014. Although, based on the incredible numbers he’s put up over the past two seasons, he should still garner plenty of interest on the open market, even if he’s unable to make another appearance this year.

Brandon Belt To Undergo Additional Tests On Thumb Injury

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was hit on the left thumb by a Lucas Gilbreath pitch during the seventh inning of San Francisco’s 6-2 win over the Rockies today.  Belt took his base, but was replaced at first base for the bottom half of the inning.

Manager Gabe Kapler told The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser and other reporters that Belt will be examined tomorrow when the Giants return home, as an initial round of x-rays were inconclusive.  Belt didn’t speak to the media himself following the game, but teammate Brandon Crawford noted that “talking to him, he seems like he should be all right and hopefully not miss too much time.”

The Giants have already clinched at least a wild card berth, and they hold a two-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West with six games remaining in the regular season.  Since San Francisco doesn’t play on Monday, Belt will get an extra day to recuperate, though even if he has escaped the worst and his thumb is only sore or bruised, it seems like Belt might be a limited factor at best in this critical final week.

Belt’s revival at the plate began in 2020, and he carried that big performance in the shortened season through to 2021. With two more hits in today’s win over Colorado, Belt is now hitting .274/.378/.597 with 29 home runs over 381 plate appearances.  This is despite missing close to eight weeks on the injured list due to an oblique strain and then a knee injury — much of Belt’s best work has come since returning from that second IL trip, as he has a whopping 1.071 OPS over 176 PA from August 5 to September 25.

Depth has been a key part of the Giants’ success this year, and since Belt has missed so much time, such players as LaMonte Wade Jr., Wilmer Flores, and Darin Ruf have all gotten considerable action at first base.  Wade and Flores figure to work a first base platoon until Belt is healthy, and Ruf figures to join the mix when he returns from the IL.  Ruf told Slusser that he expects to be ready to be activated on Thursday, which represents the minimum 10 days after he was sidelined due to an oblique strain.

Giants Reinstate Anthony DeSclafani, Designate Tyler Chatwood For Assignment

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The Giants announced several roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Anthony DeSclafani from the injured list and first baseman Brandon Belt from the paternity list. To make room for those two, infielder Thairo Estrada was optioned to Triple-A and right-hander Tyler Chatwood was designated for assignment.

It’s a quick turnaround for DeSclafani, who went on the IL on August 19th. That’s great news for the Giants, as the righty has been tremendous for them this season. Over 132 2/3 innings, he has an ERA of 3.26, producing 2.1 fWAR already on the year. With Johnny Cueto also having recently returned from the IL, the Giants rotation is in great shape for the stretch run, as they try to hold off the Dodgers in the NL West. The Giants are currently atop the pennant race by 2 1/2 games.

It’s potentially the end of a very short tenure in San Francisco for Chatwood. He was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays in July after struggling with command issues. In 28 innings out of Toronto’s bullpen, he had an ERA of 5.46, thanks in large part to a bloated walk rate of 16%. (League average for all pitchers is 8.7%.) The Giants then signed him to a minors deal April 7th and added him to the big league roster 10 days later. In two games for the Giants, Chatwood racked up four innings with six strikeouts but also allowed five runs (three earned) with one walk and one hit-by-pitch. The 31-year-old will now go on waivers and, if unclaimed, will be able to elect free agency. If he joins a new organization before the end of the month, even if it’s a minors deal, he will be eligible to play in the postseason for that club.

West Notes: Giants, Diamondbacks, A’s

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The Giants made a number of roster moves tonight, including placing Brandon Belt on the bereavement list following the passing of his grandmother, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (via Twitter). Donovan Solano also went on the injured list today, with no reason specified. He has tested positive for COVID-19 and is likely to miss 7-10 days, tweets the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea.

To replace them on the roster, the Giants added Chadwick Tromp and Thairo Estrada, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). Tromp will provide some coverage for the banged-up Buster Posey, though it doesn’t look like Posey will spent any time on the injured list. Elsewhere out west…

  • Jordan Lawlar, the Diamondbacks’ top pick in the 2021 amateur draft, will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The sixth overall pick suffered a posterior labrum tear in his left shoulder that will likely take around seven months of recovery time. Arizona hopes to have him ready by the beginning of next season.
  • Stephen Piscotty will undergo surgery on his wrist tomorrow, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com (via Twitter). Piscotty had been bothered by his wrist for much of the year, attempting to play through the injury. The Athletics outfielder struggled to a 79 OPS+ through 188 plate appearances.
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