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Orioles To Add Cody Asche To MLB Coaching Staff

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The Orioles are set to add Cody Asche to their major league coaching staff, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. He’ll take on the role of offensive strategy coach. The remainder of Brandon Hyde’s staff is expected to return for 2023, Kubatko adds, meaning the O’s are just adding an extra position.

It’ll be the first big league coaching work for the 32-year-old Asche. A University of Nebraska product, he’s a former fourth-round draftee of the Phillies. Asche reached the majors with the Phils midway through the 2013 campaign and spent the next few seasons in a fairly regular role bouncing between third base and the corner outfield. Asche spent part of the 2017 season with the White Sox, then played the next two years in the upper minors. His playing career wrapped up with the cancelation of the minor league campaign in 2020.

Asche began his post-playing endeavors in 2021, serving as a Low-A hitting coach in the Philadelphia organization. He joined the Orioles this year, spending this past season as a hitting coordinator in Baltimore’s upper minors. He’ll quickly make a jump to the MLB coaching ranks, while Anthony Villa takes over additional responsibilities as the organization’s minor league hitting coordinator, per Kubatko.

Hyde, a potential AL Manager of the Year candidate, will be back for a fifth season at the helm. Fred González returns as bench coach, while the O’s will again deploy co-hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte with Chris Holt as pitching coach.

The Orioles Struck Waiver Gold Last November

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The last time left-hander Cionel Perez was tagged on a post at MLBTR was 11 months ago, when the Orioles announced they’d claimed him off waivers from the Reds. Ditto righty Bryan Baker, whom the Orioles claimed from the Blue Jays two weeks prior. They were the definition of innocuous offseason moves at the time: a last-place team claiming a pair of little-known relievers who’d been waived by non-playoff clubs performing garden-variety 40-man roster maintenance. The moves were met with the expected cynicism associated with waiver claims of this ilk.

At the time, it wasn’t wholly clear whether either would even survive the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Perez was out of minor league options, so he’d have to win a big league spot during Spring Training or else be subjected to waivers a second time. It’s not at all uncommon for fringe 40-man players in that spot to eventually be designated for assignment when a team signs a free agent, acquires an established player via trade, or claims someone else on waivers.

Fortunately for the O’s, both Perez and Baker indeed survived the winter on their 40-man roster. Perez fired six shutout innings with just three hits and two walks against seven strikeouts during the truncated Spring Training. Baker tossed four innings of one-run ball. Both found their way onto the Opening Day roster. Prior to this year, Perez had pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 50 2/3 MLB innings, including a 6.38 mark in 2021. Baker had one MLB inning to his name.

Before long, Perez found himself building a strong start to his 2022 season, however, solidifying his hold on a place in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen. He opened the year with 9 2/3 shutout frames, and while an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio along the way was a bit less impressive, he followed that strong first month with seven more innings of one-run ball and an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio. By the time the Orioles’ game on June 1 drew to a close, Perez had pitched 16 2/3 innings with a 0.55 ERA, a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate and a 51.2% ground-ball rate.

Along the way, Perez increasingly began to incorporate a new pitch into his repertoire: a power sinker that averaged a hearty 96.6 mph. He’d never thrown a sinker in a Major League game before, and Perez used the offering sporadically through the season’s first three months, only flashing it 9.6% of the time. In mid-July, however, Perez committed to the pitch more decisively, and from July 16 through season’s end he used that new sinker at a 22.4% clip. His four-seamer, which he’d previously thrown 52.4% of the time, saw its usage rate dip to 36.9%.

Perez posted a sparkling ERA both pre-sinker and post-sinker, but the secondary numbers suggest that Perez’s success with the sinker was more sustainable than without. Once he leaned more heavily into the new pitch, he fanned 25.2% of his opponents, walked 9.0% of them, induced grounders at a 52.8% rate and yielded an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. Prior, those rates were 22%, 8.9%, 50% and 89.6 mph. The gains weren’t Earth-shattering, but Perez’s results were better once he gained more comfort with his new pitch. Seventy percent of the sinkers that were put into play against Perez were grounders.

Good as Perez was in 2022, there’s likely some regression in store. His .284 average on balls in play isn’t especially fortunate, but few pitchers can sustain marks as low as Perez’s 0.31 HR/9 and 4.3% homer-to-flyball ratio. He’s also unlikely to continue stranding 87.4% of his runners moving forward — a rate that ranked ninth in MLB (min. 50 innings) behind a collection of some of the game’s most proficient strikeout artists. Still, there’s not much about his 2022 season that portends a complete implosion next year.

Baker took the opposite route of Perez, getting hit hard and hit often early in his first extended look at the MLB level. Through June 19, he’d been tagged for a grisly 5.60 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The O’s opted to stick with him rather than option him to Triple-A, however, and they’re likely quite glad they did.

Baker threw his changeup less than 10% of the time in those first two-plus months but more than doubled his usage to 21.4% from late June through season’s end. Meanwhile, he continued to up his fastball velocity, averaging 97.3 mph over the final few months after sitting just 95.2 mph through his first 27 1/3 innings. From June 24 through season’s end, Baker posted a 2.13 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

It’s an open question whether he can sustain the velocity gains he picked up during the season, but his changeup was a devastating out pitch for him down the stretch. Baker finished off 48 plate appearances with a changeup in 2022, surrendering only two hits (both singles) and racking up 25 strikeouts in the process. Statcast credits him with a hearty 37.7% whiff rate on the pitch and gives his opponents credit for an expected wOBA of just .123. Hitters averaged just 83.1 mph off the bat when they put Baker’s changeup in play — with 55% of those batted balls taking the form of grounders.

Neither Perez nor Baker will draw the fanfare of up-and-coming Baltimore stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fill key roles as the team looks to continue its emergence from an arduous rebuild. Perez is controllable for another four seasons, and Baker can be controlled for five more years. There’s some obvious volatility when it comes to year-over-year performance with relievers, so perhaps Perez and/or Baker will come crashing back to Earth at some point. For now, however, the O’s have what looks like a pair of setup men they acquired for free — a quality lefty/righty combo that’ll help to form a bridge to fellow out-of-the-blue breakout Felix Bautista.

Keep in mind that this is the same Orioles team that traded another waiver wire All-Star, Jorge Lopez, prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Building quality bullpens has proven to be an Achilles heel for countless front offices, but at least for the 2022 season, the O’s made it look downright easy. Their ability to continue doing so could well be as important to turning the tide as the arrival of many of the system’s vaunted top prospects.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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After a deep rebuild that featured last-place finishes in each of the past four full seasons, the Orioles showed signs of optimism in 2022. Many of their prospects reached the majors and played well, allowing the club to flirt with postseason contention and finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. GM Mike Elias has teased that the coming offseason will involve a higher payroll, but just how aggressive will they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • John Means, LHP: $2.975MM through 2023 (arbitration-eligible for one year thereafter)

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years, with few people expecting anything different going into 2022. But many of the club’s young players either made strong debuts or took steps forward, leading the team to a respectable season for the first time in recent memory. They stayed in the Wild Card race until the final week of the season and actually finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016.

What that means going forward is an open question that will be answered in the months to come. General manager Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, meaning we have no template for what it looks like when he decides to be aggressive. The club hasn’t given a multi-year contract to a free agent since Alex Cobb’s four-year deal in March 2018, before Elias was hired.

Back in August, Elias said that the O’s will “significantly escalate the payroll,” though he could mean different things by that. The highest Opening Day payroll the Orioles have ever had was the $164MM of 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though it’s been steadily declining since then. This year’s mark was just under $44MM, the lowest in the league. It would be possible for the payroll to escalate “significantly” while still remaining low compared to the other 29 clubs. But if they want to be truly aggressive, there’s little standing in their way. They have no long-term commitments whatsoever, with Means the only player on the books for 2023 and literally no one guaranteed for 2024.

If they do decide to make a sizeable commitment to a free agent, it would make the most sense for it to be a pitcher since the position player core is in decent shape. Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman made good on his top prospect status with an excellent rookie season. In 113 games, he hit .254/.362/.445 for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That would be impressive work for any batter, but it’s especially impressive for a catcher, and a rookie at that. He also got good grades from defensive metrics, allowing him to produce 5.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and cementing himself as the catcher of the future.

A Spring Training injury delayed his debut until May, meaning he’s currently short of one year of MLB service time. However, there’s a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement that gives a full year of service to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting. Rutschman will most likely finish second behind Julio Rodríguez, meaning he would have five years of club control remaining before hitting the six-year mark. That should keep Rutschman in Baltimore through at least 2027, though an extension could always lengthen the relationship and would be one way of spending aggressively.

With Rutschman entrenched for years to come, the O’s will only have to think about a backup and depth options. Robinson Chirinos got into 67 games in 2022 but is headed to free agency. In terms of in-house options, they added Anthony Bemboom to the 40-man roster just a few weeks ago to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Then there are waiver claims Cam Gallagher, Mark Kolozsvary and Aramis Garcia. If the O’s want to supplement that group, they’d be a candidate for a veteran signing, such as bringing back Chirinos or someone like Sandy León, though they could also ride with the many options they already have.

At first base, the club traded away Trey Mancini at the deadline, leaving the position in the hands of Ryan Mountcastle. His power took a step back this year, hitting just 22 home runs compared to 33 last year. Some of that is surely due to the club pushing back the left field wall, though Mountcastle was still above-average at the plate overall. His .250/.305/.423 batting line this year adds up to a wRC+ of 106, or 6% above league average. That’s fairly middle-of-the-pack production from the first base slot, meaning it’s a theoretical area they could look to upgrade. However, Mountcastle is still young, turning 26 in February, and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll likely get some time to find another gear. Jesús Aguilar, who was with the club for September and October, is reaching free agency, meaning there’s room for a backup/bench bat. Re-signing Aguilar would make some sense, though guys like Colin Moran will also be available.

The rest of the infield has some fluidity to it, thanks to the versatility of Gunnar Henderson. The club’s other top prospect, he debuted later in the season and hit .259/.348/.440 for a wRC+ of 125 in 34 games. He primarily lined up at third base in that time, though also saw some action at shortstop and second base. Jorge Mateo was the club’s primary shortstop this year, hitting at a below-average rate but still proving to be plenty useful due to his speed and defense. His .221/.267/.379 batting line only amounted to an 82 wRC+, but he also stole 35 bases and was unanimously praised by advanced defensive metrics. With Rougned Odor reaching free agency, second base is up for grabs, though there are internal options. Ramón Urías hit .248/.305/.414 for a wRC+ of 104 while playing second, third and short. Terrin Vavra spent some time at the keystone but also in the outfield.

Many people have opined that the O’s should target one of the big four free agent shortstops this winter (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), given their lack of payroll commitments and ability to shuffle their current infielders around. While that level of aggressiveness would certainly be exciting, there are reasons to suspect they will dedicate their resources elsewhere. Joseph Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday are all infielders and considered to be among the top 100 prospects in the game by FanGraphs, while Baseball America has Holliday and Jordan Westburg on their list. Holliday is just 18 and still years away from the majors, but Ortiz and Westburg both reached Triple-A in 2022, with Mayo getting as high as Double-A. The O’s might want a path available for these players to force their way into the big league picture throughout 2023.

The outfield also saw a prospect debut this year, as Kyle Stowers came up and hit .253/.306/.418 for a wRC+ of 107 in 34 games. He should slot next to Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as the club’s regular outfield mix. Anthony Santander will also be around, though he has the least defensive acumen of the group and could potentially see significant time as the designated hitter. Just like on the infield, there are future reinforcements coming on the grass. Colton Cowser is considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He got as high as Triple-A in 2022 and will likely make his MLB debut in 2023.

With lots of depth on the position player side of things, the O’s should have plenty of opportunities on the trade market. Perhaps they believe in Cowser enough to explore a trade of Hays, opening up the outfield picture a bit. With a bevy of infield prospects on the way, maybe they feel they can make a move there. Trading away someone at the big league level like Mateo or Urías is a possibility. But they could also trade away one of their many prospects for immediate help.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s less certainty. Seven different pitchers got into double digits in terms of games started, with a mixed bag of results. Austin Voth and Dean Kremer were the only two of the group to post ERAs under 4.00 while with Baltimore. In both cases, advanced metrics are skeptical of the results, with low BABIPs and high strand rates helping them to minimize the damage. Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins were each between 4.00 and 5.00 in the ERA department, with none of them getting strikeouts at an above-average rate. Bruce Zimmermann’s ERA came in at 5.99. Some of these guys are still young and getting their feet wet, which means they will continue to get chances going forward. But none of them were so strong in 2022 that they should be guaranteed a rotation spot at this point. There should be plenty of room for free agent additions here, even with top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of entering the picture. John Means should be a factor at some point in 2023, but it will depend on how he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April of this year.

The types of free agents that they target will depend on exactly how significant the payroll increase will actually be. The top of the market will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. It would certainly be surprising to see the O’s shopping in that aisle, though there’s no real reason they couldn’t do it. If they aren’t willing to be quite that aggressive, they could look to Kodai Senga, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger and Nathan Eovaldi as solid middle-of-the-rotation options. If they decide to stick with one-year deals, they will likely be looking at guys like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies and others of that ilk. It could go in many different ways, but the O’s have virtually no payroll commitments and plenty of room in the rotation. The big question will be how bold they want to be.

Turning to the bullpen, this was a strength for the O’s this season. The club’s relievers posted a collective 3.49 ERA this year, ninth-best among MLB teams, even though they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker were some of the relievers to show promising results. However, reliever performance is notoriously volatile and the O’s don’t really have a veteran presence in the ’pen. Dillon Tate, who turns 29 in May and has just over three years of service time, is the old hand of the crew. It would be plenty sensible for the club to add a guy who’s been around for a bit, both for on-field performance and for mentoring capabilities. Players like Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle shouldn’t cost too much but would fit nicely, though there’s also nothing really stopping the O’s from splurging on Edwin Díaz or Kenley Jansen.

Ultimately, the O’s are a grand unknown until we see what Elias has in mind. Since taking over, he’s been extremely conservative with spending on the big league roster, avoiding all multi-year deals while focusing on acquiring and developing prospects. It seems like now is a good time to make a shift and start focusing on the major league level, but we don’t have a barometer for what that will look like. They still have many exciting prospects on the way, meaning they could continue with modest deals while waiting for the farm to continue producing, or they could use that prospect stockpile for a bold trade. But with a wide open future payroll and plenty of young talent, the O’s could be big players in free agency or the trade market or both, if they want to be.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Orioles-centric chat on 10-21-22. Click here to view a transcript of that discussion.

Ted Leonsis’ Group Emerging As Front-Runner In Nationals’ Ownership Sale

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Six months ago, the Lerner family announced they were exploring the possibility of a sale of the Nationals. As the offseason nears, some clarity has emerged on that process. David Aldridge, Britt Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic write that a group led by businessman Ted Leonsis is now the “clear front-runner” to eventually take over the Nationals. The Talk Nats blog first reported in late September the Leonsis group had broken through as the most likely party to buy the Nats.

Leonsis is already a key factor in the D.C. sports scene, as his Monumental Sports & Entertainment owns the NBA’s Wizards, the NHL’s Capitals and the WNBA’s Mystics. (The Lerners are a minority owner in that venture). Landing the Nationals would give Leonsis control over the D.C. franchises in three of the four major men’s sports leagues, The Athletic notes, a distinction currently only held by the Kroenke family that owns the Los Angeles Rams, Colorado Avalanche and Denver Nuggets. Leonsis isn’t mounting a solo ownership bid, however. The Washington Business Journal reported in August that private equity businessman David Rubenstein is also part of the group; it is unclear whether anyone else is involved.

Previous reports have also linked South Korean businessman Michael B. Kim and mortgage mogul Stanley Middleman to the sales process. There were reportedly upwards of five bidders in talks with the Lerner family at one point, but The Athletic reports that Leonsis’ group seized control roughly a month ago.

While it appears that Leonsis and company are now in the driver’s seat to push the deal across the finish line, the closing of the sale isn’t imminent. Aldridge, Ghiroli and Rosenthal hear the sale isn’t likely to be finalized before the December 4-7 Winter Meetings in San Diego. That appears to be the more optimistic end of the timetable, as The Athletic writes it’s possible the sale isn’t finished until after the calendar flips to 2023.

As The Athletic notes, Leonsis also controls his own regional sports network, NBC Sports Washington. Monumental Sports & Entertainment had previously purchased 33% of NBC Sports Washington, and it bought out NBCUniversal’s 67% share this past August. Not coincidentally, NBC Sports Washington holds the local broadcasting rights to Capitals, Wizards and Mystics games.

The Nationals’ local broadcasting contract currently runs through the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, which it shares with the Orioles. The Orioles own approximately 75% of the network, while the Nationals own the remaining share. The two franchises have been embroiled in rights fees litigation for the better part of a decade. The Washington franchise won a major victory in 2019 when an arbitrator ruled the Orioles owed the Nats $105MM. The Baltimore organization appealed that decision, and the matter has still yet to be decided by the New York State Court of Appeals.

While The Athletic notes it’s unclear how or if the sale of the Nationals would affect the MASN dispute, Talk Nats tweeted in August that Leonsis’ group would be interested in reaching a settlement with the Orioles to buy out of the MASN deal. If that did come to pass, the Nationals would presumably then be broadcast on the NBC Sports Washington platform. That’d obviously be a complicated process that requires negotiations with the Orioles, but it does seem to offer a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the saga.

The Lerner family first bought the Nationals in 2006, paying $450MM. The specific prices under consideration in their sale aren’t clear, but Daniel Kaplan of the Athletic wrote last month they were seeking $2.5 billion.

Orioles Outright Louis Head

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The Orioles have sent reliever Louis Head outright to Triple-A Norfolk, per his transactions page at MLB.com. Head was designated for assignment by the team on Friday.

Head, 32, was claimed off waivers by the Orioles in July after spending the first half of the season in Miami. Originally an 18th round selection by Cleveland back in 2012, Head spent nine years in the minor leagues before the Rays gave him a shot in the big leagues in last year.

At Tampa Bay, Head pitched to a 2.31 ERA across 35 innings. While he was never a big strikeout guy, Head kept the walks and home runs in check to provide strong innings out of the Rays bullpen, although he also benefited from a .216 opponent batting average on balls in play. The Marlins to acquired him in the off-season, but the results went south after the trade. Head’s walk rate jumped significantly to 9.9% while his home run rate more than doubled from his time at the Rays. As a result, he pitched to a 7.23 ERA across 23 2/3 innings before the Marlins exposed him to waivers in July.

Head only pitched five innings in Baltimore, but struggled in his time at Triple-A Norfolk as well, pitching to a 7.04 ERA. While Head has less than three years of service time and is being outrighted for the first time, as a player who has spent parts of seven seasons in the minor leagues, he can elect free agency.

Pirates Claim Ali Sánchez, Beau Sulser; Designate José Godoy

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The Pirates have made a pair of waiver claims, according to their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Catcher Ali Sánchez was claimed from the Tigers and right-hander Beau Sulser was claimed from the Orioles. Additionally, the Pirates designated catcher José Godoy for assignment.

Sánchez, 26 in January, has a very limited MLB track record, getting into five games with the Mets in 2020 and two games with the Cardinals in 2021. The Cards kept him in the minors this year, before he went to the Tigers on a waiver claim in June. The Tigers also stashed him in Triple-A as depth, before designating him for assignment last week.

He is known as a glove-first catcher but showed some encouraging signs at the plate this year, walking in 12% of his plate appearances. His batting line in 291 trips to the plate this year was .262/.354/.389 for a wRC+ of 101, or 1% above league average.

The Bucs have a fairly wide open catching mix for next year, Jason Delay and Tyler Heineman getting the bulk of the work down the stretch in 2022. Neither of them hit much but they both posted strong defensive numbers. Delay hit .213/.265/.271 while Heineman slashed .217/.276/.268. They also have Zack Collins, though he spent more time at first base than behind the plate for Pittsburgh. Sánchez will be out of options next year and thus won’t be able to be sent to the minors without first being passed through waivers.

He seems to have replaced Godoy, 28, in the club’s catching plans. Godoy got into 10 MLB games this year between the Twins and Pirates, spending the bulk of his time in Triple-A. He only hit .197/.272/.299 down on the farm for the Twins but a much better .333/.357/.590 in Indianapolis. Still, it seems that wasn’t enough to hold onto a roster spot. Since he has been previously outrighted in his career, he would have the right to elect free agency if he passes through waivers again.

Sulser, 29 in May, began the year with the Pirates but went to the Orioles on a waiver claim in May. Between the two clubs, he threw 22 1/3 innings with a 3.63 ERA, 47.1% ground ball rate, 19.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. In 56 2/3 Triple-A innings, he had a much stronger strikeout rate of 24.3%. He will still be optionable in 2023, meaning he can shuttled between Triple-A and the majors again next year.

Injury Notes: Robertson, Benintendi, Means

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Phillies right-hander David Robertson threw a bullpen session yesterday and went through fielding drills, tweets Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That’s the first baseball activity for the veteran closer since sustaining a calf strain while celebrating Bryce Harper’s home run during the team’s Wild Card win over the Cardinals. Robertson was left off the roster for the Phillies’ NLDS showdown with the Braves, but throwing off a mound and running through some fielding drills Monday at least opens the door for him to be reinstated for Philadelphia’s NLCS date with San Diego. The Phils will make a formal announcement on their NLCS roster by 10am PT this morning.

A few more injury items of note…

  • Yankees outfielder Andrew Benintendi received an injection in his wrist this week after experiencing continued pain in his ailing right wrist, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Benintendi underwent surgery in early September after suffering a hamate fracture in his wrist and has not appeared in a game since. There’s been hope that, if the Yankees advance beyond today’s ALDS Game 5 against the Guardians, that he could potentially return for the ALCS, though the latest update on him casts plenty of doubt on that possibility. If the Yankees were to advance, they’d have to announce an ALCS roster by 10am CT tomorrow. Benintendi hit .304/.373/.399 with five home runs in 521 plate appearances prior to his injury — including a .254/.331/.404 output in 131 plate appearances with the Yankees (following a trade from the Royals).
  • Orioles lefty John Means underwent Tommy John surgery back in late April, and just shy of six months later he’s resumed throwing. Means shared video his session yesterday, labeling it “day one” of his return to a throwing program. There’s still a long road back from this point, as Means isn’t throwing anywhere near 100% at this juncture and will have plenty of milestones to clear as he rehabs his new elbow ligament and eventually builds up strength to return to a Major League mound. An early summer return in 2023 would be a good outcome, though each pitcher’s recovery from Tommy John surgery varies. Means, who’s pitched to a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 innings since making his big league debut with the O’s, signed a two-year, $5.925MM deal covering the 2022 season and 2023 season but is under club control via arbitration through the 2024 campaign.

The Orioles’ First Key Offseason Decision

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The Orioles enter the offseason fresh off their first winning season since 2016. Baltimore’s surprisingly competitive year wasn’t enough to earn them the longshot playoff bid with which they flirted for a couple months, but they did snap a streak of four consecutive last place finishes during 162-game seasons.

For the first time in a while, the O’s head into the winter looking to build out a promising big league roster. Much of that lifting figures to be on the pitching staff, as Baltimore has broken in a number of players on an increasingly strong position player core. The starting rotation is the big question mark, as it was comprised mainly of unproven hurlers. The Orioles finished 21st in rotation ERA (4.35), and while the group was better at preventing runs in the second half of the season, it never featured impact high-strikeout arms.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias and his front office will surely add to that group this offseason, and the expected arrival of top prospect Grayson Rodriguez early next year will add a high-octane internal arm to the mix. Before considering upgrades, however, the Orioles will have to decide whether to retain their 2022 innings leader. Baltimore holds an $11MM option over right-hander Jordan Lyles. That comes with a $1MM buyout, leaving Elias and his staff with a net $10MM decision.

Lyles agreed to terms on a $7MM guarantee with the O’s in the waning seconds before last offseason’s lockout, finalizing the contract after the work stoppage. It was a somewhat surprising move by Baltimore, with Lyles coming off successive ERA’s of 7.02 and 5.15 during his two seasons with the Rangers. The O’s clearly valued his capacity to soak up innings at the back of a rotation, however, and he stepped back into that role in Baltimore.

The right-hander took all 32 starts through the rotation at Camden Yards, the only pitcher on the team to start more than 23 games. He tossed 179 innings, ranking 29th in the majors in that category. Lyles’ rate stats still weren’t great, but they did mark an improvement over his work in Texas. He posted a 4.42 ERA, striking out a below-average 18.6% of batters faced but only walking 6.7% of opponents. Home run issues that had plagued him in Arlington weren’t nearly as problematic in Baltimore.

It was presumably exactly the kind of performance the Orioles had hoped they’d receive when signing Lyles. The 4.42 ERA is his second-lowest mark over parts of 12 MLB seasons, while he just narrowly missed last year’s career high of 180 innings. A number of Baltimore’s younger pitchers raved throughout the season about Lyles’ clubhouse leadership. It’d have been hard for Elias and company to reasonably expect more from Lyles than what he seemingly provided both on the field and in the locker room.

Between those contributions and Baltimore’s need for rotation help, one can make a reasonable argument for keeping Lyles around. He’d be due a fairly modest raise over this year’s salary, but Elias has already indicated the Orioles plan to increase payroll. The GM pointed at an arbitration class that includes Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as part of that spending hike, but there’ll still be a ton of room on next year’s books. Aside from the Lyles buyout, the only guaranteed commitment the O’s have for 2023 is a $2.975MM salary for John Means. Tendering contracts to all their arbitration-eligible players would add roughly $22.5MM, according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That should still leave a lot of spending room for a team that, in Elias’ words, should “significantly escalate” payroll over this year’s roughly $44MM Opening Day mark.

Of course, one could argue for the O’s to use the extra $10MM to make a run at a more impactful starter than Lyles. Baltimore will enter next year with more realistic hopes at competing for a playoff spot than they did this past season. While Lyles did provide needed stability, his improved rate stats were still worse than average. The league average starter this year posted a 4.05 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout percentage, both a fair bit better than Lyles’ respective marks. He allowed hard contact at a higher-than-average clip for a fourth straight year.

Lyles also saw slight regression in his raw stuff. He lost a tick on his average fastball, which sat at 91.8 MPH after averaging 93 MPH last year. His breaking ball dipped over three ticks, from 83.3 MPH to 80 MPH. His swing-and-miss rates took a corresponding minor step back.

Free agency offers a number of mid-tier starting pitchers. Jameson Taillon, Mike Clevinger and Noah Syndergaard have all shown well in the past but didn’t post particularly impressive 2022 campaigns. Ross Stripling, José Quintana, Taijuan Walker (who’ll surely decline a $6MM player option with the Mets) and Michael Wacha fared well this year despite subpar strikeout rates, but each had an average or worse ’21 season. Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber are former stars who each had productive seasons but will be limited to short-term deals based on their ages. There’d be various options for the Orioles to consider if they want to replace Lyles while signing a starter to a contract with an average annual value in the $10MM range, but most of that group would require a multi-year commitment. Whether to retain Lyles is the first major call Elias and his staff will have to make this winter, with option decisions required within five days of the end of the World Series.

Why The Orioles Should Extend Adley Rutschman

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  • Orioles GM Mike Elias has already stated that his team plans to spend more in 2023, though the size and nature of the payroll boost will naturally only be determined as the offseason progresses.  Not all of the Orioles’ expenditures would have to be on new talent, as The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz opines that “arguably no move made this winter would benefit [the team’s] future more than ensuring [Adley] Rutschman is a part of it.”  Locking up Rutschman to a big multi-year extension would follow the pattern of teams looking to lock up star young talents, as we’ve seen with the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and the Braves’ Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider just within the last couple of months.  There isn’t necessarily any rush for the O’s to make a deal since Rutschman only just finished his rookie season, yet extending the catcher or any of Baltimore’s many up-and-coming young stars would seem like a logical next step in the front office’s process.
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