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Latest On Aaron Judge

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7:32PM: Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) about Judge, saying that the Yankees had exchanged several offers with the outfielder’s camp, and Cashman had spoken with Judge’s agent earlier today. The club doesn’t have any deadline for Judge to make a decision. The Yankees haven’t gotten any word about whether or not they will get the opportunity to counter or match any final offer Judge might receive from any other team.  In another interview with YES Network’s Meredith Marakovits and Jack Curry (Twitter link), Cashman said the team didn’t have any plans to meet with Judge in person during the Winter Meetings.

3:49PM: There isn’t much doubt that Aaron Judge’s next contract will top the $300MM mark, though the exact distance over $300MM and the length of the deal are still unknown.  Recent reports have suggested that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year pact worth roughly $300MM, and that a minimum of nine years will be required to sign the AL MVP.

That nine-year demand might already be a reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) hears some speculation from industry sources that Judge has a nine-year offer in hand.  The Yankees’ previous offer wasn’t said to be their final bid, so it could be that New York added an extra year to retain their longtime star.  Or, it could be that the Giants (another team known to be in hot pursuit of Judge) have floated a nine-year offer, or perhaps even an unknown team.

On the topic of the ever-popular mystery teams, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that other teams beyond the Yankees and Giants “remain on the periphery” of Judge’s market.  With the numbers this high, of course, only certain big-spending clubs are realistic candidates to sign Judge in the first place, unless a mid-payroll team decided to make an unexpected splurge.

The Red Sox are no strangers to big payrolls, and they have at least checked in with Judge’s representatives, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  As intriguing as it would be to see Judge switch sides in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, the Sox are “not one of the most aggressive teams” in the Judge race, as Cotillo characterizes Boston’s interest more as “due diligence” rather than a true push to sign the slugger.

The Dodgers are the only other team publicly known to have some interest in Judge, though preferably on a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote over the weekend.  A nine-year asking price could put Los Angeles out of the running, but given the Dodgers’ financial resources, they can certainly afford a longer-term deal if they are determined to land Judge.  With Trea Turner now gone to the Phillies and Justin Verlander (a prime Dodgers target) signing with the Mets, however, it is worth wondering if the Dodgers might now more firmly pivot towards Judge.

Rick Porcello Announces Retirement

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Former American League Cy Young winner Rick Porcello seemingly stepped away from baseball with scarcely a word about his decision to do so following the 2020 season, but in a new appearance on the Bradfo Sho with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the 33-year-old righty publicly confirmed for the first time that he has indeed retired.

Rick Porcello

“I wanted to be with my family,” said Porcello, who also tells Bradford that he and his brother built a house together in the two years since he’s last taken a big league mound. “I wanted to get back into that type of lifestyle and be around them because every year that you’re gone is another year where your parents are getting older, and your brothers are getting older.”

Porcello acknowledged that his struggles in his final two Major League seasons muted interest during the 2020-21 offseason, though it’s known that he at least drew some interest in a potential reunion with the Tigers that winter. No deal ever materialized, however, and Porcello has now apparently opted to dedicate his time and efforts to his family and to helping grow youth baseball in Vermont, where he and his brother built their aforementioned home. In addition to the full audio of the interview, Bradford has several lengthy quotes from Porcello on his decision to retire, on his struggles in 2019-20, on building that house and on his commitment to youth baseball in his column at WEEI.

Though his final game came in his age-31 season, Porcello still pitched a dozen full seasons in the Majors, thanks largely to the fact that he debuted as a 20-year-old rookie less than two years after the Tigers selected him with the No. 27 overall pick in the draft. Porcello finished third in 2009’s American League Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a 3.96 ERA that he spun over the life of 170 2/3 innings.

Porcello was briefly optioned to Triple-A Toledo the following summer but otherwise never returned to the minors and practically never missed a start due to injury. The right-hander landed on the injured list just once in his 12-year career — a three-week absence due to a minor triceps strain in Aug. 2015. Porcello was the consummate workhorse, averaging 31 starts and 185 innings per season from 2009-19. He worked to a 4.36 ERA in 2037 1/3 innings along the way, and for a few years in the midst of that span, he peaked as one of baseball’s better pitchers.

At age 25 in 2014, Porcello enjoyed a breakout season, tallying a then-career-high 204 2/3 innings with a 3.43 ERA. Strikeouts were never a big part of the sinker specialist’s game, but Porcello thrived that season due to a tiny 4.9% walk rate, a strong 49% grounder rate and an average of just 0.79 homers per nine innings pitched. The Tigers, looking for some extra punch in their lineup, traded Porcello to the Red Sox in a deal that netted Yoenis Cespedes, Gabe Speier and Alex Wilson at the 2014 Winter Meetings, when both Porcello and Cespedes were just a season away from free agency.

However, Boston apparently had little intent of simply “renting” Porcello for a year, as the Sox inked him to a four-year, $82.5MM contract extension that spring. Porcello’s first season at Fenway set off alarm bells, as he tied a career-worst 4.92 ERA. The red flags disappeared when he not only rebounded in 2016 but shattered all of his career rate stats en route to a 3.15 ERA, an MLB-best 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a narrow win over former teammate Justin Verlander in 2016 American League Cy Young voting.

That season proved to be Porcello’s individual peak, but Porcello called the 2018 season “the crowning achievement in my career” due to a more team-oriented accolade, as he and the Red Sox shook off a pair of ALDS exits in 2016-17 to take home a World Series title. Porcello started 28 games for the ’18 Red Sox and pitched to a 4.28 ERA, adding 15 1/3 frames of 3.52 ERA ball in the postseason that year — including a Game 4, series-clinching ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium in which he held Boston’s archrivals to one run in five strong innings.

The following season, 2019, marked the beginning of the end for Porcello’s run in the Majors. He was tagged for a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings before heading out into free agency and signing a one-year deal with the Mets. True to form, he took the ball every fifth day for the Mets during the pandemic-shortened season and started a dozen of their 60 games, but Porcello’s struggles continued as he logged a 5.64 ERA in 59 innings.

In chatting with Bradford, Porcello acknowledged unsuccessfully trying to keep up with leaguewide changes that saw four-seam fastballs and sliders become increasingly en vogue; indeed, he threw a career-high 31.1% four-seamers and career-low 24.5% sinkers in 2019, and in 2020 he threw a career-high 29.2% sliders. None of those tweaks worked in his favor, and Porcello added that the pandemic afforded him “new perspective on life” and played a role in his decision to prioritize time spent with family rather than seek out a rebound campaign on the mound.

Though he’s retired at a young age, Porcello accomplished plenty in his 12 big league seasons. He’ll walk away from the game with a 150-125 record, a 4.40 ERA, 1561 strikeouts and just 489 walks in 2096 1/3 big league innings (plus another 40 innings of 4.73 ERA ball in the playoffs). Porcello was a top-three Rookie of the Year finisher, a Cy Young winner and a World Series champion in a career that FanGraphs valued at 29.6 wins above replacement. Between his original contract out of the draft (back when MLB deals were allowed for draftees), his arbitration earnings, his Red Sox extension and his Mets free-agent deal, Porcello earned more than $128MM. Best wishes to Porcello and his family in life after baseball.

Red Sox Haven’t Made “A Competitive Offer” To Xander Bogaerts

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Such varied teams as the Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, Phillies, and Cubs have all been linked to Xander Bogaerts so far this winter, and the list of suitors could stretch even further beyond these teams.  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that between eight and 11 teams have shown interest in Bogaerts, and yet the Red Sox weren’t “positioned in that group as of Sunday afternoon.”  According to two sources, Bogaerts’ former team hasn’t yet made “a competitive offer” to re-sign.

This relative lack of interest on Boston’s part is perhaps a little surprising, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has said on multiple occasions that retaining Bogaerts is one of the team’s top priorities.  However, as Abraham notes, there has been plenty of indications that the Red Sox haven’t been entirely committed to keeping the All-Star, ranging from their lowball extension offer last spring to the team’s signing of Trevor Story last offseason as a seemingly backup plan for shortstop if Bogaerts departed.

While a front office can obviously work on multiple things at the same time, it is perhaps also telling that the Sox have largely been focused on other roster areas thus far in the offseason.  The Red Sox made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu landed in Houston, and are among the many teams interested in Mitch Haniger.  Boston is also exploring a wide range of pitching options for the rotation and bullpen, and the Sox have already made two notable additions in relievers Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez.  This isn’t to say that the Red Sox couldn’t make an offer to Bogaerts at any time, but it would seemingly have to be a very substantial offer to outpace the several other teams who have shown a lot more direct interest.

There hasn’t been much indication that the Sox could pivot to one of the other star free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson) rather than Bogaerts, and the team might just use some combination of Story, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Jeter Downs, and the newly-acquired Hoy Park to handle the two middle infield positions.  Long-term, Marcelo Mayer is Boston’s shortstop of the future, and prospect Ceddanne Rafaela could also be a factor at shortstop or other positions after a breakout 2022 season at high-A and Double-A ball.

Bogaerts rejected Boston’s qualifying offer, and since the Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax in 2022, their compensatory pick (if Bogaerts signed elsewhere) would fall only after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.  It wouldn’t make for much of a consolation prize for one of the best players in recent franchise history, especially since exceeding the tax threshold didn’t even result in a winning record for the 2022 Red Sox.

Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Market

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Next week’s Winter Meetings are expected to open the floodgates for some hot stove activity, and among the free agents drawing substantial interest leading up to those meetings is longtime Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. The 31-year-old (32 next month) has a “robust” market, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and colleague Buster Olney tweets that there’s a growing belief he’ll be able to secure a three-year contract — perhaps in the vicinity of $15MM per year.

Haniger has, to this point in the offseason, been linked to each of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Rangers and the Mariners, who are open to adding another outfielder even after acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays last month. The Halos’ interest, it should be noted, was reported prior to their acquisition of Hunter Renfroe. It seems likely that move probably put an end to their pursuit of Haniger; the Angels also have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward locked into outfield spots and Shohei Ohtani at DH, of course.

Even presuming the Angels are out of the running, that’d leave at least five teams — and quite likely a few more — in the mix for Haniger, who missed substantial time this season due to a high ankle sprain but has generally been an above-average to excellent hitter when healthy enough to take the field. Dating back to 2017, Haniger boasts a .263/.337/.480 batting line — 24% better than league average by measure of wRC+, which weights for his pitcher-friendly home park. Haniger belted 39 home runs in a season as recently as 2021 and is one of the few outfielders on this offseason’s market who can be viewed as a viable 30-homer threat.

Of course, the knock on Haniger has been his ability to remain on the field — or rather, his lack thereof. Haniger’s 2019 season was cut short when he sustained a ruptured testicle after a poorly placed foul ball off his own bat. Just two months later, while rehabbing from the subsequent surgery, Haniger experienced back discomfort and learned that he’d torn an adductor muscle off the bone. The fallout from that second injury snowballed and ultimately saw Haniger require core muscle/hernia surgery and a microdiscectomy operation.

It was one of the more bizarre and also fluky sequences of injuries for any player in recent memory, but the end result was still a 22-month absence from the playing field for Haniger. He returned with that aforementioned 39-homer campaign, however, and has posted a combined .251/.316/.47o slash with 50 homers in 938 trips to the plate since coming back from that nightmarish run of health troubles. Haniger’s once-premium defensive ratings dipped in 2021, but he posted positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (2) in this year’s small sample of 396 innings.

Heading into the offseason, MLBTR ranked Haniger 20th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a three-year contract at an annual rate of $13MM. Olney’s report suggests that Haniger’s market could be reaching if not pushing a bit beyond that level. If interest is indeed ramping up to that extent, it stands to reason that Haniger could be one of many free agents to come off the board during next week’s Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.

Red Sox Outright Ronaldo Hernandez

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The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe, that catcher Ronaldo Hernandez has been outrighted to Triple-A Worcester. Their 40-man roster is now at 39.

Hernandez, 25, was a Rays prospect who they added to their 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in November of 2019. He was acquired by the Red Sox prior to the 2021 season in the deal that sent Jeffrey Springs to Tampa. In his first year in Boston’s system, things went quite well for Hernandez. In 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .284/.326/.501 for a wRC+ of 122. However, he took a step back in 2022, hitting .261/.297/.451 for a wRC+ of 93.

Prospect reports on Hernandez have indicated that his blocking and receiving need some work but his power at the plate continued to draw strong marks. He did still hit 17 long balls this year, but he’s never really been able to draw many walks, as indicated by this year’s 4.8% rate. The Red Sox have long had Christian Vázquez as their primary backstop but traded him to the Astros this year and he’s now a free agent. With the outright of Hernandez, they’re left with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as the two catchers on their 40-man roster at present.

There had been no public indication that Hernandez had been designated for assignment or placed on waivers but he evidently was passed through in recent days. Hernandez will stick in the organization as depth but without taking up a roster spot. With a spot open, the Sox could potentially be lining up a signing but it also could be with an eye towards next week’s Rule 5 draft. Boston grabbed Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the 2020 version of the Rule 5.

Rays To Sign Zach Eflin To Three-Year Deal

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The Rays are dipping into the free agent pitching market, agreeing to terms with right-hander Zach Eflin on a three-year deal. It’s reportedly a $40MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025. The deal is pending a physical.

Eflin had spent his entire big league career with the Phillies. Originally drafted by the Padres, the Orlando native was dealt to the Dodgers and Phils during his time as a minor leaguer. He reached the majors by the middle of the 2016 campaign, bouncing on and off the MLB roster for the first couple seasons. Eflin struggled during his early big league looks, but he’d settled in as a capable mid-rotation arm by 2018.

That season, he made 24 starts and worked to a 4.36 ERA across 128 innings. That kicked off a remarkably consistent stretch of results. In each of the five seasons between 2018-22, Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36. Aside from a spike in strikeouts during the abbreviated 2020 season, he achieved those 3rd/4th starter results in a similar manner every year. He’s proven an excellent strike-thrower who misses bats at a slightly below-average level but keeps the ball on the ground at a solid clip.

Between 2019-21, Eflin worked to a 4.12 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a stellar 5.7% walk percentage. He’d been on a similar path to begin this season, posting a 4.37 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and a 5.3% walk rate through his first 13 starts. At the end of June, he landed on the injured list with a right knee contusion. That cost him over two months. By the time he was ready for reinstatement in early September, the Phils had limited time to build him back to a starter’s workload before year’s end. They expedited his return to the majors by plugging him in short relief. Eflin made seven appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season, then tossed 10 2/3 frames over 10 outings as a high-leverage arm during the Phils’ run to a National League pennant.

While Eflin doesn’t miss many bats, his blend of stellar control and a solid five-pitch mix allowed him to find a fair amount of success in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home environment. Against right-handed hitters, he leans primarily on a sinker in the 92-93 MPH range, but he turned to a four-seam fastball more often against lefties. Eflin mixes in a cutter and curveball as his usual secondary offerings, occasionally deploying a slider against righties as well. He rarely turns to a changeup, however, and he’s had his share of issues with left-handed batters. Southpaws have hit Eflin at a .274/.335/.492 clip since the start of 2018, but he’s stifled same-handed hitters to a .255/.291/.398 mark.

Tampa Bay surely has designs on plugging him back into the rotation after a healthy offseason. He’ll step in behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow in the pecking order, joining Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in what looks to be the season-opening starting five. The Rays have one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Taj Bradley, waiting in the wings after a great season in the upper minors. Shane Baz was expected to seize a rotation job himself, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming are on hand as rotation or multi-inning relief options for what should again be a strong Tampa Bay pitching staff.

If healthy, Eflin fits nicely into the middle of that group. At the same time, the Rays are placing a bet on a pitcher with a concerning injury history. The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career. He underwent a pair of surgeries to repair the patellar tendons in both his knees in the summer of 2016. At the time, Eflin acknowledged he’d battled chronic knee pain dating back to adolescence (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). He avoided any worrisome injuries for the next few seasons, but he went back under the knife in September 2021 to again repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. That cut his year short, meaning he’s lost chunks of three of the past six seasons to knee issues. There’s real risk in investing in a pitcher who has only once topped 130 MLB innings in a season.

The Rays were willing to look past that to add a pitcher who’s typically effective when healthy. Eflin’s also one of the younger arms available in free agency. He won’t turn 29 until next April, and a pitcher with his age and statistical track record may well have found four years on the open market if not for injury concerns. Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team that valued Eflin in this range, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Red Sox had made him the same offer. Eflin elected to join the Rays instead, signing closer to home and avoiding state income tax.

With an $11MM salary for next season, Eflin becomes the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster. He’ll lose that title in 2024, when Glasnow’s salary spikes to $25MM, but he’ll count for a significant portion of a Rays payroll that typically ranks among the league’s lowest. The Rays are now up to around $78MM in projected commitments for 2023, not far off their franchise-record $83MM mark from this past season. The overall $40MM guarantee represents the largest free agent investment in Rays history.

It also easily tops MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection of two years and $22MM for Eflin. The deal narrowly beats the three-year, $39MM guarantee Tyler Anderson received from the Angels last month. Anderson had rejected a qualifying offer and cost the Halos a draft choice. The Phils elected not to qualify Eflin. Philadelphia won’t receive any compensation for his departure, while the Rays won’t lose any picks to add him. To find Eflin’s replacement, Philadelphia can dip into a free agent rotation market that offers a number of options beyond the top trio of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Players like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea all remain on the market as strong candidates for multi-year deals.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rays and Eflin had agreed to a three-year deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the guarantee at $40MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Interested In Mitch Haniger

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The Red Sox have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Boston joins the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Angels and incumbent Mariners among the clubs known to have checked in with his representatives.

Haniger is one of a handful of mid-tier corner outfielders available in free agency. The outfield market is topped by Aaron Judge and, after a significant gap, Brandon Nimmo. There’s another drop to the third tier, a mix that includes Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar and bounceback types like Cody Bellinger and Michael Conforto alongside Haniger.

While Haniger isn’t in the same boat as Bellinger or Conforto, he’s also looking to rebound from a relatively down year to match pre-2022 heights. He lost a good chunk of this past season with a high ankle sprain. That kept him to 57 contests and 247 plate appearances, in which he hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 home runs. That’s still above-average offensive production once one accounts for the pitcher-friendly nature of Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, but it marked a somewhat disappointing follow-up to a 2021 campaign that saw him land some down-ballot MVP votes. Haniger connected on 39 homers with a .253/.318/.485 line over 157 games that year.

Various injuries have nagged the Cal Poly product throughout his MLB tenure, and he’s only twice exceeded 100 games in a season. When healthy, however, he’s typically provided a strong source of power from the righty batter’s box. Haniger owns a .244/.315/.469 line dating back to the start of 2019, and he’s mashed opposing left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .274/.355/.536 showing. His production against same-handed arms is closer to average, but he’s certainly playable against pitchers of either handedness. He typically rates as a solid defender in the corner outfield but isn’t an option for work in center.

The Red Sox have a fairly clear use for corner outfield help. Jarren Duran hasn’t performed at the major league level the way many had expected after he broke out as a prospect. He’s now 26 years old and owns a career .219/.269/.354 line at the MLB level. Duran hasn’t earned much consistent work against big league pitching and a win-now Boston club would be hard-pressed to rely on him for an everyday role. Alex Verdugo has played well at times but posted overall numbers around league average for the past two seasons. Haniger would be an upgrade on either player, and Boston also has an uncertain DH mix with the free agency of J.D. Martinez.

Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts

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11:40am: The Athletic’s Peter Gammons cites front office officials from three other teams who are of the belief that Bogaerts will not return to Boston (Twitter link). As he did with regard to Bogaerts playing another position, however, Boras outwardly denied the report, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Bogaerts is “open to any and all voices in the free agent market” and adding that he and Bogaerts “have not closed any doors on anyone.”

10:04am: Next week’s Winter Meetings are generally expected to serve as a catalyst for what’s been a slow-moving free agent market. As the league’s biggest offseason convention approaches, the interest for some of the top players available is beginning to come into focus.

Xander Bogaerts is part of a loaded shortstop class, and a number of teams have checked in with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports the Diamondbacks and Cubs have expressed interest, while adding that previously-reported suitors like the Phillies and Dodgers are in the mix. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently checked in with Scott Boras about Bogaerts’ willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Boras, however, flatly rejected the possibility; the agent tells Rosenthal “Xander is playing shortstop” and denied that San Diego would prefer to move him off the position.

San Diego’s interest in Bogaerts isn’t a new development. Marino Pepén listed the Padres as a suitor last week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post has suggested they’re involved in the top of the shortstop market more generally. The Friars are seemingly serious enough in their pursuit to gauge Bogaerts’ amenability to move off the position.

The infield mix at Petco Park is already crowded, although there are a number of multi-positional options who can move around. Manny Machado is locked in at third base, while the rest of the current infield figures to be made up by some combination of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth. Kim has proven himself an excellent defensive shortstop and earned an everyday role with a .251/.325/.383 showing this past season. Tatis was expected to be the franchise shortstop after a brilliant start to his career earned him a $340MM extension, but he’s now under consideration for a move to second base or the outfield after missing all of 2022 due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug ban. Cronenworth is a quality defender at the keystone, but the Friars have floated the possibility of kicking him over to first base with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury hitting free agency.

Adding a first base/designated hitter type might be the most straightforward path to building out the offense, but there’s no harm for Preller and his staff in considering other avenues. Adding another middle infielder while kicking Cronenworth to first base would give San Diego an elite defensive infield, while Bogaerts is among the top offensive players available regardless of position. He’s long been mentioned as a candidate to move off shortstop towards the end of a free agent deal after years of subpar defensive marks, but he quieted those concerns (at least in the short term) with arguably the best season of his career with the glove. Bogaerts rated as four runs above average in more than 1200 shortstop innings by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast this past season. He hasn’t played anywhere else since 2014 and while there’s little question he could handle a less demanding position like second or third base, it doesn’t seem he’s willing to do so.

There are a number of other teams with worse internal options than the Padres that’d surely be willing to plug Bogaerts in at his longtime position. The Diamondbacks relied on rookie Geraldo Perdomo this year, and he looked overmatched to the tune of a .195/.285/.262 line in 500 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed is under contract and can play excellent defense, but he’s always been a below-average hitter and lost almost all of this past season to surgery on his throwing shoulder.

Arizona general manager Mike Hazen is plenty familiar with Bogaerts from his previous work in the Red Sox’s front office, so it’s little surprise they’re interested in adding him given the uncertain shortstop outlook. The question is whether a Diamondbacks team that has had a payroll south of $100MM in each of the past two seasons would be willing to commit a deal of that magnitude. MLBTR predicts a seven-year, $189MM contract for Bogaerts. The D-Backs already have roughly $98MM in salary commitments for next season, per Roster Resource, so adding a salary in the realm of $27MM annually would require owner Ken Kendrick signing off on a major spending hike relative to recent levels.

The Cubs have a cleaner long-term payroll outlook that makes them a viable fit for any of the top shortstops. Nico Hoerner is a quality incumbent, but he’s already expressed a willingness to move to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2023 commitments around $127MM, and they’ve opened each of the past two seasons with payrolls in the $140MM to $150MM range. Chicago has pushed spending north of $200MM in the past. There’s room for an aggressive offseason, but president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his front office have to weigh whether to invest in the middle infield against other weak points on the roster like center field, first base, catcher and the back of the rotation.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so any signing team will have to forfeit draft choice(s) and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. Boston has consistently maintained retaining him is their top priority, though extension talks dating back at least to Spring Training haven’t gotten anywhere. The Phils are widely expected to be in play for a top shortstop, but reports suggest they’re more dialed in on Trea Turner at the moment. The Dodgers could certainly turn to any of the other shortstops if Turner walks, while the Twins reportedly have Bogaerts as their top fallback if they can’t retain Carlos Correa.

Guardians Made Three-Year Offer To Jose Abreu

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Yesterday, the Astros and first baseman Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM contract, but it seems a surprising club was close to Houston in the bidding for Abreu’s services. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians made a three-year offer, but that the $60MM range was “beyond their reach.”

The Guardians are usually one of the lowest-spending clubs in the league, so the fact that they didn’t sign a costly free agent isn’t exactly shocking. However, it could perhaps be an indication that they have a greater willingness to spend this offseason than usual. The largest free agent contract in the history of the franchise is the $60MM over three years given to Edwin Encarnacion prior to the 2017 season, coincidentally very similar to the deal Abreu just signed. The Guardians did give José Ramírez $129MM over seven years, though that was an extension and not a free agent deal.

Though many fans will remain skeptical of “at least we tried” reports of teams just missing on free agents, there are reasons to think the Guards might actually have some money to work with this winter. The club ran out a roster full of rookies and other young players in 2022, and it worked tremendously. They went 92-70 and finished atop the American League Central despite a very modest payroll. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 spending around $72MM, with no individual player set to earn more than the $14MM Ramírez will get. $9MM of that number is the projected arbitration salary of shortstop Amed Rosario, a name frequently mentioned in trade rumors. That $72MM figure is already a slight upgrade over last year’s Opening Day figure of $68MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they got as high as $135MM in 2018.

Now that the club is a few years removed from the lost revenues of the pandemic and just got a boost from a surprise postseason run, it’s possible that they are willing to push spending back up near their pre-pandemic levels. It would also make sense from an on-field perspective to build around their bevy of young and talented players while they are still paid at arbitration or pre-arb levels.

If there is some money to be spent, the first base/designated hitter part of the roster is a sensible place to put it. The club has Josh Naylor penciled in as their first baseman but Franmil Reyes flamed out as the designated hitter in 2022 and eventually got put on waivers, going to the Cubs. There would have been an opening for Abreu to step in and split the first base and designated hitter duties with Naylor. It also would make sense to add some extra thump to a lineup that succeeded in 2022 largely by making contact and avoiding strikeouts. The club hit 127 home runs this year, which was 29th in the majors, ahead of only the Tigers. Abreu’s power actually took a step back in 2022, but he still hit 15 home runs and has frequently been a 30-homer bat in the past.

If the Guardians are still willing to pursue this market, there are other options available to them. There are some part-time or role players available such as Trey Mancini or Yuli Gurriel, but the top option is Josh Bell. On MLBTR’s Top 50, he was projected for a $64MM contract over four years. That guarantee is beyond what Abreu got, but at a lower average annual value of $16MM. Since Bell is only 30 years old compared to Abreu’s 36, he will likely require a lengthier commitment, but that lower salary might better suit the Cleveland checkbook. Like Abreu, he would add some thump to the lineup, having hit 17 home runs last year and getting as high as 37 in previous seasons. He also isn’t likely to throw off the club’s low-strikeout style either, as he’s never posted a rate above 19.2% outside of the shortened 2020 season. For context, this year’s league average rate was 22.4% and the Guardians struck out at a collective 18.2% clip.

The Guardians will surely have competition in a pursuit of Bell or any other first basemen they decide to go after. The Padres, Cubs and Marlins were all reported to have been interested in Abreu and they will likely start thinking about the next options on their lists. One other team on that list is the Red Sox, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Abreu was their top free agent target and they met with him as soon as free agency began.

The Red Sox already have something of a cluttered mix of players for their first base and designated hitter spots. Youngsters Triston Casas and Bobby Dalbec are on the 40-man roster along with veteran Eric Hosmer, picked up in a deadline deal with the Padres last year. However, there’s no real reason for them to be especially committed to Hosmer, as the Padres agreed to pay down all of his remaining contract except for the league minimum. Since joining the Padres prior to 2018, he’s been essentially a replacement level player, producing a wRC+ of 100 and 0.3 fWAR. As for Dalbec, he showed some potential in 2020 and 2021 but struggled greatly in 2022, hitting just .215/.283/.369 for a wRC+ of 80 while striking out in 33.4% of his plate appearances.

We can’t know for sure what subsequent moves the Red Sox would have made if they had signed Abreu, but it seems possible they could have looked to trade Hosmer or simply released him if he used his no-trade clause to block a deal. Dalbec could have also found himself on the trading block but he also has options and could have been retained as minor league depth in case Casas, who has just 27 MLB games under his belt, struggled in 2023. He hit five homers in that short sample and walked a bunch but didn’t hit for much average, leading to a lopsided batting line of .197/.358/.408.

The first base market has been quite robust in the early days of the offseason, as Anthony Rizzo already re-signed with the Yankees, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, followed by Abreu signing with the Astros. With several teams seemingly still interested in upgrading their rosters at first, the remaining free agents might see their phones lighting up very soon.

Red Sox Promote Ramon Vazquez To Bench Coach

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Red Sox first base coach Ramon Vazquez is getting a new assignment, as reporter Edwin Hernandez Jr. tweets that Vazquez will take over from Will Venable as Boston’s new bench coach.  Venable joined the Rangers earlier this month to take an associate manager role under Bruce Bochy.

The 46-year-old Vazquez has been a member of Boston’s coaching staff since 2018, first working as a statistical analysis coordinator and then moving into a role as a quality control coach.  Vazquez saw some fill-in work as the first base coach in 2021 before taking over the job entirely for the 2022 season.

Before joining the Red Sox, Vazquez worked as a coach on the Padres’ staff in 2017, and previously as a coach in the Astros’ farm system.  Fans may remember Vazquez from his lengthy and well-traveled playing career, as he suited up for six different MLB teams (including the Red Sox) from 2001-09.  In an interesting tidbit, Vazquez and Alex Cora were actually traded for each other back in July 2005, with Vazquez going to Cleveland and Cora going to the Red Sox — this started Cora’s history in Boston, which has continued into his current role as the team’s manager.

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