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Rockies Rumors

Rockies Notes: Arenado, Catchers, Welker, Tinoco

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2019 at 11:31pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pulls back the curtain on the Rockies’ extension with Nolan Arenado, providing detail on the timing, structure and actual content of some of the meetings held between Arenado’s camp and organizational decision-makers (subscription required). While the two sides had hoped to avoid arbitration prior to exchanging figures on filing day, that didn’t come to pass, and at one point the sides even looked to be headed toward a hearing. Instead, the Rox agreed to a $26MM salary for the 2019 campaign (thus avoiding arbitration) under the pretense that Arenado’s agent, Joel Wolfe, would follow that up with a counter-offer to the team’s initial extension proposal.

Ultimately, it took a face-to-face meeting involving Arenado, Wolfe, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich and Rockies owner Dick Monfort for significant progress to be made on the extension — as well as a final call from Monfort to Wolfe urging that they put the finishing touches on a deal. Rosenthal’s column is rife with quotes from Wolfe, Bridich and Arenado himself — each detailing elements of negotiations and the thought processes of all parties involved at various points of talks. Rockies fans in particular will find it of great interest, of course, though a broader audience will surely appreciate the in-depth look of the inner-workings of one of the largest contracts in MLB history.

More on the Rockies…

  • The Rockies have curiously declined to address their catching situation this offseason. The reason, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, is that the organization is more concerned with glovework behind the dish than with offense. While there’s an acknowledgement from the club that it “needs more production from whoever plays,” says Saunders, it evidently still believes in its current options over the opportunities that were (and are) available on the market. The Rox are “generally pleased” with Tony Wolters from a defensive standpoint, which is supported by numbers that show he was an above-average framer and otherwise solid defender last year. Veteran Chris Iannetta has a spottier defensive record, though he has at times graded as a well-above-average framer. There’s also Tom Murphy — a former top prospect who has yet to establish himself at the MLB level and now finds himself out of minor league options. His power is more intriguing than his glove, though Murphy drew solid framing marks in ’18 and has generally controlled the running game at a roughly league-average level. In all, catching still looks like a weak spot for the Rockies, and the declaration that defense is valued more than offense seems an odd justification, as there were certainly options who could’ve provided both quality glovework and at least passable offense.
  • Third base prospect Colton Welker wasn’t disheartened to see the Rox commit to Arenado for the long term, writes Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Welker, a 21-year-old considered to be among the organization’s top five prospects, told Harding his current focus is simply on moving up the ladder in the system after a strong showing in Class-A Advanced last season. Furthermore, he explained that he almost expected the Rockies to do so. “Who wouldn’t sign that guy with the numbers he’s put up?” Welker asked rhetorically, adding that he relishes the opportunity to learn from a player of Arenado’s caliber in Spring Training. As the Rox have done with third base prospects Tyler Nevin and Josh Fuentes (the latter of whom is Arenado’s cousin), they’ve begun to give Welker some looks at first base with an eye toward the future. “Colton knew going into this past offseason that first base was going to be a focus in 2019, regardless of what happened with Nolan,” director of player development Zach Wilson told Harding. A fourth-round pick back in 2016, Welker crushed Class-A Advanced pitching at a .333/.383/.489 clip in 2018.
  • Minor league right-hander Jesus Tinoco will work as a reliever moving forward, manager Bud Black told reporters this morning (Twitter link via Saunders). The big righty, who was acquired in the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, struggled to the tune of a 4.79 ERA through 26 starts (141 innings) at the Double-A level last season and has yet to post an ERA south of 4.67 at any level in the Rockies organization. That said, Tinoco posted encouraging marks of 8.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 last season and pitched well in 10 relief appearances in the Arizona Fall League last season.
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Colorado Rockies Chris Iannetta Colton Welker Jesus Tinoco Nolan Arenado Tom Murphy Tony Wolters

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NL Notes: Tatis, Senzel, Rox, Reynolds, Braves, Folty

By Connor Byrne | March 3, 2019 at 3:19pm CDT

As a consensus top three farmhand in baseball, shortstop prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. may be able to help the Padres from the outset of the season, but he’s no lock to make the team. After all, by keeping the 20-year-old in the minors until at least mid-April, the Padres would gain an extra year of control over him. Nevertheless, the Padres’ highest-profile player, Manny Machado, is hopeful Tatis will join him on Opening Day to comprise the left side of their infield, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required). “If he’s in there, we’re going to be a dangerous team, and I think we’re all rooting for him to break camp with us,” said Machado, an experienced shortstop who’s set to hold down third base for the Padres after signing a 10-year, $300MM contract with them last month. Meanwhile, manager Andy Green isn’t ruling out Tatis for the Padres’ season-opening roster, but he cautioned: “In (Tatis’) case, he’s a couple months above Double-A ball. He’s had two incredibly slow Aprils that unbelievable seasons followed. “So, there’s some context there that we’re going to factor into the equation that other people probably aren’t.” 

  • As is the case with Tatis, Reds prospect Nick Senzel could be an early season victim of service time manipulation. Senzel’s also trying to learn a new position, center field, as he entered the spring with no game experience there. Already, though, “it’s become clear” Senzel has the ability to handle the position, manager David Bell said Sunday (via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Regardless of whether Senzel’s in center for the Reds from the get-go, the 24-year-old seems like a good bet to see the lion’s share of time at the position for the Reds this year. Senzel’s customary spots – second and third – are spoken for, whereas there’s no established center fielder blocking him in Cincinnati.
  • Although he only landed a minor league contract in free agency, first baseman Mark Reynolds is a near certainty to make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, per Nick Groke of The Athletic (subscription required). If so, he’ll be the primary backup to first baseman Daniel Murphy, another offseason pickup for the club. The 35-year-old Reynolds was teammates with Murphy last season in Washington, where the former turned in a solid .248/.328/.476 line in 235 plate appearances after signing a minors pact with the Nationals in April.
  • Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has been down with elbow soreness, but it’s “expected” he’ll resume throwing Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. Foltynewicz isn’t on track to serve as the Braves’ Opening Day starter, but it appears he’ll be able to make his regular-season debut sometime during the first week of the campaign. The 27-year-old will attempt to build on a breakout 2018 showing in which he pitched to a 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP with 9.93 K/9, 3.34 BB/9 and a 43.1 percent groundball rate over 183 innings.
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Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. Mark Reynolds Mike Foltynewicz Nick Senzel

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West Notes: Castillo, Arenado, Rockies, A’s, Ohtani

By Mark Polishuk | March 1, 2019 at 7:57pm CDT

Padres left-hander Jose Castillo will be sidelined for an estimated six-to-eight weeks to recover from a flexor strain in his throwing arm, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Castillo began feeling forearm tightness last week, which caused San Diego to shut down his bullpens and then ultimately place him on the 60-day injured list today.  Needless to say, any type of forearm injury is cause for concern, though the team is still “confident” that Tommy John surgery won’t be required.  The 23-year-old Castillo made his MLB debut last season and immediately delivered results, posting a 3.29 ERA, 4.33 K/BB rate, and a whopping 12.2 K/9 over 38 1/3 innings out of San Diego’s bullpen.  With Castillo on the IL, the Padres’ top left-handed options consist of Matt Strahm and the recently-signed Aaron Loup, with former big leaguers Eric Stout, Kyle McGrath, and Brad Wieck also available in the upper minors.

Some more from both the NL and AL West divisions….

  • The specter of what Manny Machado or Bryce Harper could land in free agency theoretically loomed over the extension talks between Nolan Arenado and the Rockies, though the Machado/Harper situations “had a lot less to do with it than you might think,” Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on Inside Pitch show on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link).  While both the team and Arenado’s camp were obviously cognizant of the larger market forces at play, Bridich said “There were never any sort of deadlines or caveats put in going ’Hey, we need to know this first before…’ We just focused on our business at hand, and I think that’s why we ended up getting what hopefully ends up to be a great deal for everybody involved.”
  • Now that Arenado has been locked up to the biggest contract in franchise history, the Rockies don’t have any more big extension candidates on their radar for at least a couple of years, Kyle Newman and Jeff Bailey of the Denver Post write.  Colorado’s top young stars are still controlled through arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years — Trevor Story and Jon Gray are controlled through the 2021 season, while Kyle Freeland and German Marquez aren’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 campaign.  This doesn’t mean the Rockies couldn’t explore a long-term deal in advance, though it’s worth noting that Arenado and Charlie Blackmon both only signed their extensions when they were a season removed from the open market.  Looking at Colorado’s long-term payroll, Arenado and Blackmon are the only players guaranteed salary beyond 2021, several of the team’s other big contracts (Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Daniel Murphy, and likely Ian Desmond) come off the books after 2020 or 2021.
  • The early start to the regular season for the Athletics and Mariners (who play a two-game series in Tokyo on March 20-21) has also pushed up some roster deadlines.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the A’s will have to decide by March 14 whether or not minor league signees Jerry Blevins and Nick Hundley will make the MLB roster.  Otherwise, Blevins and Hundley each can opt out of their minors contracts.  It could be a moot point, however, as “Blevins and Hundley both appear to be near-locks to make the team,” Slusser writes.  Hundley’s inclusion could leave Josh Phegley as the odd man out of the catching mix, and the out-of-options backstop is a good candidate to be claimed off waivers, multiple scouts tell Slusser.  Oakland’s early start doesn’t extend to out-of-options players, however, as the club has until March 28 (when their regular season resumes) to decide on Phegley, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, and other players who can no longer be freely optioned to the minors.
  • Shohei Ohtani has moved from hitting off a tee to hitting soft toss, as the Angels slugger continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  The Halos are targeting a May return for Ohtani, though manager Brad Ausmus told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the unique nature of Ohtani’s two-way status makes him “patient zero,” and thus “he doesn’t really have a set schedule.  He is making the schedule for future Shohei Ohtanis.”  Ohtani obviously won’t pitch this season, and he’ll be limited to DH-only duty once he does return to the team’s lineup.
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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Jeff Bridich Jerry Blevins Jon Gray Jose Castillo Josh Phegley Nick Hundley Nolan Arenado Shohei Ohtani

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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension

By Jeff Todd | February 26, 2019 at 8:54pm CDT

Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.

It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.

The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.

Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.

Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.

All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)

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Colorado Rockies MLBTR Polls Nolan Arenado

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Rockies, Nolan Arenado Agree To Extension

By Steve Adams | February 26, 2019 at 7:08pm CDT

Nolan Arenado’s days as the face of the Rockies franchise will continue beyond the 2019 season. Arenado, who had been slated to reach free agency next winter, has instead inked an eight-year contract extension that adds seven years and $234MM in new commitments. The Wasserman client’s new contract reportedly contains an opt-out clause after the third season in 2021, which would allow him to become a free agent in advance of his age-31 campaign, as well as full no-trade protection.

Nolan Arenado | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The newly agreed upon contract will leave in place the one-year, $26MM contract to which Arenado had already agreed for 2019. He takes down $35MM annually over the next five seasons before receiving $32MM and $27MM salaries in the final two years.

Arenado is promised $260MM in total money over an eight-year term. Whether calculated cumulatively ($32.5MM annually) or in reference only to the seven new seasons ($33.4MM), the new contract establishes a new record annual salary for position players, topping Miguel Cabrera’s prior mark of $31MM. In terms of overall average annual salary (AAV), Arenado’s contract trails only Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM mark for the largest in MLB history. It’s the fourth-largest deal ever in terms of total guarantee, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM), Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and Alex Rodriguez (10 years, $275MM).

Arenado, 28 in April, has won a Gold Glove in all six of his Major League seasons to date, pairing that hardware with Silver Sluggers in each of the past four seasons. He’s made four consecutive All-Star teams and finished in the top five of National League voting in three straight seasons. Over the past four years, Arenado has led the National League in home runs on three occasions and posted a combined .297/.358/.573 batting line with 158 homers, 159 doubles and 19 triples.

Detractors point to Arenado’s home/road splits in suggesting that his value is inflated by Coors Field, and while it’s surely true that he benefits from that hitter-friendly setting, he’s also slashed a robust .267/.329/.502 on the road over the past four years (with many of those games coming in pitchers’ parks in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles). And park-neutral metrics like OPS+ (129) and wRC+ (127) feel that even after adjusting for his home park advantages, Arenado’s bat has been 27 to 29 percent better than that of a league-average hitter since 2015. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the game’s 35 best hitters in that four-year span and, when combined with his premier defense at the hot corner, he ranks inside the top 10 in overall wins above replacement among position players, per Fangraphs.

In all, there’s little denying Arenado’s place among the game’s legitimate superstars, and he carries perhaps more value to the Rockies than he would with any other organization given his existing connection with the fan base and within the Denver community. He’s nearly two years older than the current offseason’s two star free-agent bats, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, so it’s not a surprise to see Arenado heading for a slightly shorter-term deal than either of his highly touted peers. But in terms of annual rate, the new contract already tops Machado’s annual salary and could potentially be higher than the AAV to which Harper will eventually agree.

Arenado is the second would-be 2019-20 free agent to take an extension rather than test an open market that has become increasingly slow for top-end talent. (Aaron Hicks signed a seven-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.) Had he hit the open market, it stands to reason that deep-pocketed teams like the Dodgers and particularly the Yankees would’ve made a push to land his services, but the presumptive top free agent on next year’s market will instead take his record-setting payday a year early in order to remain with the only organization he’s ever known.

For the Rockies, the new contract means that Arenado will play out at least the next three seasons alongside Trevor Story, cementing one of the game’s most productive left-side infield tandems for the foreseeable future. That duo’s presence likely means that uber-prospect Brendan Rodgers is ticketed for second base when he eventually does force his way up to the big league level. Should his future outlook stall for any reason, the Rox have plenty of other infield talent on the rise, most notably including Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson. Beyond that grouping, veteran Daniel Murphy signed a two-year contract to play first base this winter and will be entrenched in the heart of what should be a formidable batting order.

From a payroll vantage point, the Arenado contract will further push the Rox into franchise-record territory. The $137MM mark at which they opened the 2018 season was already an all-time high for the team, but Arenado’s new deal — depending on how the dollars are distributed — will likely bring Colorado’s Opening Day payroll beyond $155MM (as outlined by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). In terms of luxury taxation, the Rockies are still nearly $40MM shy of having anything to worry about in 2019, and their luxury tax ledger plummets to just north of $129MM next winter, which would place them nearly $80MM shy of incurring any penalties.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that the Rockies had made a record-AAV offer to Arenado and added he annual breakdown on Twitter. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the two sides were closing in on an eight-year deal worth more than $255MM with an opt-out (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the exact salary terms, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement to be in place (Twitter links).

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Colorado Rockies Newsstand Transactions Nolan Arenado

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Rockies Extend Bud Black

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2019 at 10:45am CDT

10:45am: The Rockies have announced the extension.

10:32am: The Rockies and manager Bud Black have agreed to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2022 season, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Black’s original three-year pact with Colorado ran spanned the 2017-19 seasons and included a 2020 club option.

Bud Black } Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

Black, 61, enjoyed a 15-year playing career as a pitcher (primarily for the Royals, Giants and Indians) and spent nearly nine years as the manager of his now-division-rival Padres from 2007-15. After being dismissed in San Diego, Black was in a front-runner for the Nationals’ managerial post before the team’s offers to him were reported to be exceptionally low for a veteran manager. He instead spent a year as a senior advisor in the Angels’ front office before being hired by the Rockies in the 2016-17 offseason.

Black’s first two years with the Rockies have been a success, as he’s overseen a 178-147 record and made a pair of postseason appearances via Wild Card berths. While the Rockies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the 2017 National League Wild Card Game, they topped the Cubs in the 2018 Wild Card and moved onto the National League Division Series. Their World Series aspirations were cut short in a decisive sweep at the hands of the Brewers, however. He’s finished third in National League Manager of the Year voting in each of his two seasons in Colorado.

Rockies pitchers have taken a step forward under Black, and while he surely isn’t the sole reason for that, Black’s 15-year pitching career and seven-year run as a highly respected pitching coach with the Angels surely is of benefit to a young Rockies pitching staff. With this new deal in place, that young pitching staff will have some continuity as it continues to make strides in pitching at the game’s most hitter-friendly venue. Continued success for Black, too, could eventually push his career managerial record north of .500; it currently sits at 649-713 after managing some underwhelming Padres rosters during some of the leanest seasons in that franchise’s history.

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Colorado Rockies Newsstand Bud Black

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Transaction Retrospection: The Charlie Blackmon Extension

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2019 at 10:56am CDT

Throughout the Rockies’ franchise history, the team hasn’t been shy about extending key members of the roster.  Colorado’s biggest extension yet could be in the offing, as the Rockies continue to talk with All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a long-term deal that would keep Arenado away from free agency next winter.

If such a contract is worked out, it would easily be the most expensive deal in Rockies’ history, not to mention one of the pricier deals in Major League history.  It would also be the second major extension completed by Jeff Bridich in his time as Colorado’s general manager, coming on the heels of the club’s five-year extension with Charlie Blackmon last spring.  That deal is worth revisiting now, given what we’ve seen about the free agent outfield market (or, really, just the free agent market in general) after a second consecutive slow offseason of signing activity.

Blackmon was 31 at the time of the extension (he turned 32 last July 1), and, like Arenado is now, also a year away from reaching free agency.  Blackmon had posted solid numbers as a part-time player and then as a regular with Colorado in 2013-15, though he stood a big step forward to hit .327/.390/.578 with 66 homers over 1366 plate appearances in 2016-17.  That performance saw Blackmon earn a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons, as well as a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2017.

With the Rockies coming off a postseason appearance in 2017, the team moved to lock up a top performer, agreeing to an extension that guarantees Blackmon at least $94MM from 2019-23.  Blackmon earns $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and then has a player option for another $21MM season in 2022.  He then has another player option year for 2023 worth $10MM in guaranteed money, though another $8MM is available via escalators based plate-appearance thresholds that seem rather readily achievable, or on MVP finishes.  (The deal also technically adjusted Blackmon’s previously agreed-upon $14MM arbitration salary for 2018, turning $2MM of that figure into a signing bonus.)  All told, the extension could max out at $102MM in new money for Blackmon once all is said and done.

Even sticking to the guaranteed $94MM figure, however, Blackmon’s contract already looks like an outlier in the wake of how baseball’s free agent marketplace has evolved over the last two winters.  Manny Machado and Patrick Corbin are the only 2018-19 free agents who earned more than $94MM in guaranteed money this winter.  Bryce Harper will be the third name on this list once he eventually signs, and it’s doubtful that Dallas Keuchel will meet even MLBTR’s four-year/$82MM projected contract, let alone a $94MM deal.

Blackmon’s production also took a bit of a step back in 2018, as he hit .291/.358/.502 with 29 homers over 696 plate appearances.  Still strong numbers, to be sure, though more in the vein of a solidly above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 115 OPS+) than his more elite production (137 wRC+, 136 OPS+) in 2016-17.  On the defensive side, Blackmon had been a below-average but playable center fielder throughout his career, though his glovework fell off (-28 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.6 UZR.150) to such an extent in 2018 that the Rockies will now deploy him as a right fielder this season.

Had Blackmon been a free agent this winter, his most natural comp was another center fielder, A.J. Pollock.  The newly-signed member of the Dodgers outfield lacks Blackmon’s durability and longer track record of production, but Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road).  Pollock landed a five-year deal from the Dodgers worth $60MM in guaranteed money, so even if some teams felt that Blackmon was the better free agent bet, the gap between the two players surely wouldn’t have been $34MM.

With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that Blackmon and his representatives at ACES did a good job in landing that extension last spring.  As a soon-to-be 33-year-old headed for corner outfield duty, as hard to imagine Blackmon would’ve found five years and $94MM in free agency if he had tested the market this winter.

A win for Blackmon, however, doesn’t at all mean that the deal was a “loss” for the Rockies.  As noted, Blackmon was still a very productive hitter in 2019 — drastic home/road splits aren’t as big an issue when you’re the team that plays at Coors Field, naturally.  Blackmon also wouldn’t be the first player to improve at the plate after shifting to a less-demanding defensive position, so getting out of center field could help Blackmon’s bat as well as simply drastically elevating his defensive value.

Could Colorado have re-signed Blackmon to a lesser deal as a free agent had they not extended him a year early?  Potentially, though such a “what-if” scenario is easy to create with 20/20 hindsight (plus, you never know if another team might’ve been particularly keen on signing Blackmon).  As it worked out, the Rockies were able to retain a player they liked both on the field and in the clubhouse, even if it may have been a bit of an overpay.

Let’s also not overlook the big-picture ripple effect of the Blackmon extension as it relates to Arenado.  The third baseman now has solid proof that a Bridich-led front office is willing to pay to keep a homegrown star in the fold, and retain members of what has been a winning core group that has reached consecutive postseasons.  Money-wise, Blackmon’s long-term contract presents no real obstacle to the Rockies being able to afford Arenado, given that negotiations are already taking place and the organization is cognizant of the $200MM+ it will surely take to keep Arenado in the fold.  From a return-on-investment standpoint, Blackmon’s contract also looks like much less of a problem for the Rockies’ payroll than the lack of production they’ve received from recent free agent signings like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, or Bryan Shaw.

It will also be interesting to see how Blackmon’s extension stands in the wider scope of future extensions for star players a season away from free agency.  We’ve already seen some notable extensions this spring, though those deals went to players (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, etc.) who were still arbitration-controlled for several seasons, rather than pending members of the 2019-20 free agent class.  For some of those scheduled free agents who are already in their 30’s, the thought of an extended stint in free agency and/or a lesser contract than expected have surely crossed these players’ minds in the wake of the last two offseasons.

Blackmon’s contract may represent a best-case scenario for such players if they do pursue extensions, as Blackmon and his camp were able to score at what may be the peak of the outfielder’s value and earning potential.  Of course, it takes two to tango, and it remains to be seen if teams besides the Rockies are willing to pay a premium in an extension for a player who isn’t either a true elite veteran (like a Nolan Arenado) or a younger, arbitration-controlled star who could prove to be a bargain if locked up early.  As a team wanting to both win now and to send an early signal to Arenado that they wanted to win the future, however, the Rockies felt Blackmon’s extension was clearly worth the plunge.

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Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals Transaction Retrospection Charlie Blackmon

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Rockies Plan To Move Ian Desmond To Center Field

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2019 at 12:02pm CDT

The Rockies are shuffling their outfield alignment for the upcoming season, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. They’ll utilize Ian Desmond as their primary center fielder, with Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl lining up in corners. (Saunders further tweets that Blackmon will play right field, with Dahl playing left.) It’ll be the third position for Desmond with the Rockies in the third season of his five-year, $70MM contract. Desmond was primarily a left fielder with the Rox in 2017 and was the team’s regular first baseman last year, though offseason signee Daniel Murphy will handle first base moving forward.

Desmond, 33, does have some experience in center field, which was his primary position with the Rangers back in 2016. However, he drew mixed reviews there at the time (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and +3 Outs Above Average) and will be tasked with a challenging draw in covering Coors Field’s spacious center field.

The shift will move Blackmon, who hasn’t played any corner outfield since 2015 (when he played fewer than 100 innings, combined, in right and left field), in an effort to gain more favorable results. Blackmon’s defensive ratings plummeted in 2018, and his bat, while still well above average, took a step back as well. That, and perhaps a desire to keep Blackmon’s legs a bit fresher, quite likely played a role in the new alignment, though manager Bud Black also called center field Desmond’s “best position” at this point. For a 33-year-old that has logged just 27 innings at the position over the past two seasons, that seems like a stretch, but Desmond will once again be tasked with tackling an unfamiliar position as the Rox look to extract some value from a signing that has yet to pay dividends.

The first two seasons of Desmond’s five-year contract have gone about as poorly as the Rockies could have plausibly envisioned at the time they signed him. The two-time All-Star (2012 with the Nats and 2016 with the Rangers) has managed just a .251/.314/.404 batting line (78 OPS+) while struggling through a broken hand and a calf strain in an injury-shortened 2017 season. While his bat trended up a bit this past season, he was still a far cry from his offensive peak. Paired with some rough glovework at first base, those struggles prompted both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference to tab Desmond’s value south of replacement level. Desmond is slated to earn $15MM in each of the next two seasons and will be paid $8MM in 2021 (plus a $2MM buyout on a $10MM option for the 2022 season).

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Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon David Dahl Ian Desmond

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NL West Notes: Machado, Padres, Rockies, Maybin, Kelly

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2019 at 6:32pm CDT

The Padres continue to be linked to Manny Machado on the rumor mill, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) provides a bit of history on San Diego’s pursuit of the star infielder.  It wasn’t until late January that the Padres began to “seriously contemplate” the idea of signing Machado, due to his high asking price and the team’s own hesitation about Machado’s well-documented history of borderline dirty play and a perceived lack of hustle.  This led to what one source described as an “ungodly” amount of background work from the team about Machado, and given the Padres’ burgeoning interest, it appears as though their questions have been answered to their satisfaction.  In fact, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan hears from two sources that the Padres “are enamored with” Machado, and see him as the veteran centerpiece amidst the club’s upcoming influx of highly-rated minor leaguers.  There has been some speculation that Machado, a Miami native, was favoring East Coast teams over West Coast teams, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) hears that Machado is looking for the best deal, with geography not a factor.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Also from Passan’s piece, he reports that the Rockies have been discussing extensions with some of their young starters.  No names are mentioned, though it’s fair to assume that names like Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, and perhaps Jon Gray or Antonio Senzatela could be on Colorado’s radar as long-term pieces.  Of that group, Freeland, Marquez, and Senzatela don’t become arbitration-eligible until next winter, while Anderson and Gray each have two arb years remaining.  As such, there isn’t any tremendous urgency to get an extension worked out with any of these hurlers — as Passan notes, current talks could be more about laying some groundwork for more substantive negotiations next spring.  Then again, each pitcher is his own unique case, and it could be that at least one could be eager to lock in a guaranteed payday rather than risk injury, or perhaps a performance dropoff while pitching at Coors Field.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently profiled Freeland as an extension candidate, arguing that a five-year, deal in the range of $35MM-$37MM would seem like a fair contract for the 25-year-old southpaw, who finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018.
  • Cameron Maybin received interest from multiple teams this winter, though the veteran outfielder told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group that he chose to sign with the Giants due to the opportunity for playing time, and because of Buster Posey’s recent tweet about the club being “an organization that wants to win.”  Maybin has only reached the postseason once in his 12-year career, though the trip was a memorable one, as Maybin won a World Series ring as a member of the 2017 Astros.  Of course, the Giants don’t profile as the most obvious potential contender going into the 2019, though there’s still plenty of veteran talent on hand if everyone can stay healthy.
  • Carson Kelly is eager to finally get a chance at regular MLB playing time, the new Diamondbacks catcher tells The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required).  Acquired by Arizona as part of the Paul Goldschmidt blockbuster, Kelly will see much more action with the D’Backs than he did as the backup behind workhorse Yadier Molina in St. Louis.  Molina’s continued longevity meant that Kelly, a former second-round draft pick and top-60 prospect in the sport, became an expendable piece.  “In the big leagues, I’ve only had a chance to fail.  I’ve never really had a chance to grow,” Kelly said, noting that he found himself pressing at the plate when with the Cardinals since he so rarely got a chance to play.  While the Diamondbacks’ three-catcher plan means that Kelly still won’t get a full everyday-catcher workload, Buchanan writes that “Kelly figures to be Catcher 1A,” and could end up getting more at-bats if he plays well.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Cameron Maybin Carson Kelly Manny Machado

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Rockies Notes: Chemistry, Leadoff, Bullpen Roles

By TC Zencka | February 16, 2019 at 11:26am CDT

Although team chemistry is difficult to gauge and impossible to measure, there’s little doubt to the positive impact made by lead-by-example types Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. While Arenado and Blackmon make the culture what it is with their intensity and work ethic – as they should since they’re the two highest paid players on the team – they’re not necessarily vocal leaders. Someone will have to step into the void left by the departures of Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra and DJ LeMahieu, three players who handled a brunt of the interpersonal clubhouse responsibilities last season. Parra kept the mood light, LeMahieu fueled the competitive spirit, and CarGo took on the responsibility of access, making himself available to the press more often than not. The latter is an interesting and important responsibility, as some guys are better than others at shutting out the noise that comes with playing professionally. Mark Reynolds figures to be a top candidate to take on some of the emotional management of the Rockies’ clubhouse, but other veterans like Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta will have the opportunity to play more of a leadership role as well. More from Saunders on the Rockies 2019 season…

  • In a separate piece for the Denver Post, Saunders notes that manager Bud Black likes the potency of Blackmon’s bat at the top of the lineup, and he plans to keep him there for 2019. With slugging percentages of .552, .601, and .502 the last three seasons, Blackmon fits the mold of a more traditional middle of the order bat, but Black likes the threat of the home run ball from the jump. LeMahieu handles roughly half of last season’s leadoff responsibilities (with Blackmon bumped to second), but with him in New York there will be a new face at the top of the Rockies lineup. Daniel Murphy figures to fit somewhere in the top of the order mix, but youngster Garrett Hampson is another natural choice to play himself into the conversation. With walk rates between 9.0% and 15.4% in his three minor league seasons, along with solid contact rates, Hampson has the potential to match LeMahieu’s contact ability while adding to it a more disciplined approach.
  • Whereas most of the league is turning to fluid bullpen roles and innovations like the Opener and the multi-inning stopper, Black and the Rockies maintain a more traditional bullpen philosophy, writes Saunders. Black prefers not only to have a standard closer, but also a regular eighth inning arm. Wade Davis figures to return to the closer role, but with Adam Ottavino gone, the eighth inning is up for grabs. A spring competition ought to iron out the exact bullpen roles, with Seunghwan Oh and Scott Oberg the odds-on favorites to land the setup gig, with veterans Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee peripheral contenders. Oberg made major strides last seasons, earning Black’s trust down the stretch last season as he cut his walk rate from a career 4.2 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9 in 2018.
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Colorado Rockies Bud Black Carlos Gonzalez Charlie Blackmon Garrett Hampson Gerardo Parra Scott Oberg Wade Davis

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